Rowdy Tellez

1B Gwinnett Stripers

Age 32 L/L 6'4" / 270 lbs AAA Svc 5.332 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAA40-MANArb-3FA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	29	MLBPIT	421	.243/.303/.392	13	1	97	-0.8
2025	30	MLBTEX	312	.228/.278/.443	17	1	94	-0.7
2026	31	AAAATL	408	.267/.357/.466	16	5	70	—	.209/.271/.345
2027PROJ45% MLB	32	MLBATL	131	.221/.281/.400	5	1	89	-0.1
2028PROJ	33	MLBATL	256	.213/.271/.380	10	0	81	-1.0

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.5 · Next 2 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service5.332First FA2028

2027Arb-3$0.7M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Bat Spd82

Barrel%71

Avg EV66

xwOBA58

Speed10

CompsBrett Harper (age 32) · Felix Perez (age 32) · Aaron Guiel (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 6889vR 96

AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .281 / .400

PA131

HR5

K%25

BB%7

BABIP259

ISO175

MLB%45%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

310.236

POWER

Barrel%

7111.4

Avg EV

6690.2

Bat Spd

8274.8

SPEED

Sprint

1023.5

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 733 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

663

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

253

313

▶▶R

ISO

115

183

▶▶R

BABIP

222

272

▶▶R

38.6%

21.9%

▶▶R

BB%

12.9%

5.9%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2018

Service 5.332 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-3	$0.7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	18	ROK	GCL Blue Jays	—	141	124	29	5	3	2	15	26	1	1	0	234	321	371	692	137	278	18	11	311	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A	Lansing Lugnuts	—	49	42	15	0	0	2	7	10	0	0	0	357	449	500	949	143	433	20	14	425	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	ROK	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	218	191	56	11	1	4	19	27	3	3	2	293	366	424	790	131	315	12	9	347	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	148	131	36	5	0	7	14	28	0	3	0	275	345	473	818	198	293	19	9	355	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A	Lansing Lugnuts	—	299	270	80	19	0	7	24	56	1	2	2	296	356	444	800	148	346	19	8	352	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	91	82	24	4	0	4	7	20	1	1	0	293	356	488	843	195	339	22	8	369	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	514	438	130	29	2	23	63	92	6	4	3	297	393	530	922	233	324	18	12	400	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	50	42	10	1	0	2	8	11	0	0	0	238	360	405	765	167	276	22	16	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	501	445	99	29	1	6	47	94	2	6	1	222	300	333	632	110	264	19	9	285	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	73	70	22	9	0	4	2	21	0	0	0	314	333	614	948	300	391	29	3	403	159	+5	+0	-3	-9	+2	-0.5
2018	23	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	444	393	106	22	0	13	40	74	5	7	4	270	345	425	770	155	298	17	9	340	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	409	370	84	19	0	21	29	116	7	1	1	227	296	449	744	222	267	28	7	326	103	+1	-0	-5	-9	+9	-0.4
2019	24	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	109	93	34	9	0	7	14	25	1	0	0	366	454	688	1.142	323	435	23	13	485	168	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	127	113	32	5	0	8	11	20	1	0	1	283	352	540	892	257	276	16	9	383	141	+6	-0	-2	-2	+3	0.5
2021	26	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	325	297	72	14	2	11	23	65	4	0	0	242	306	414	720	172	275	20	7	319	97	-1	+0	-6	-7	+7	-0.7
2021	26	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	63	53	16	4	0	5	8	12	2	0	0	302	413	660	1.073	358	306	19	13	459	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	599	529	116	23	0	35	62	121	5	2	1	219	307	461	768	242	215	20	10	337	106	+4	+0	-8	-11	+13	-0.2
2023	28	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	351	311	67	9	1	13	35	86	0	0	0	215	295	376	671	161	249	25	10	298	84	-7	+0	-4	-7	+8	-1.0
2023	28	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	34	31	7	2	0	1	3	7	0	0	0	226	294	387	681	161	261	21	9	305	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	421	383	93	18	0	13	31	89	2	1	0	243	303	392	695	149	280	21	7	307	97	-2	+0	-8	-8	+9	-0.8
2025	30	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	312	289	66	11	0	17	17	83	3	1	0	228	278	443	721	215	255	27	5	314	94	-2	+0	-6	-6	+7	-0.7
2025	30	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	16	15	5	1	0	2	1	6	0	0	0	333	375	800	1.175	467	429	38	6	497	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	408	356	95	23	0	16	49	94	1	5	2	267	357	466	823	199	319	23	12	364	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2617	2362	552	108	3	122	210	601	22	5	3	234	302	437	739	203	259	23	8	324	106	+18	-0	-41	-59	+57	-2.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	18	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	—	141	130	23	4	2	2	9	38	1	1	0	177	236	285	520	108	223	27	6	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	49	44	14	0	0	2	5	13	0	0	0	318	388	455	842	136	429	27	10	367	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	ROK MLE	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	218	198	46	8	1	3	12	38	3	3	2	232	286	328	615	96	256	17	6	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	148	135	31	4	0	6	10	42	0	3	0	230	283	393	675	163	266	28	7	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	299	278	65	13	0	5	16	79	1	2	2	234	278	335	612	101	295	26	5	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	514	461	124	27	2	15	40	116	6	4	3	269	335	434	769	165	314	23	8	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	501	461	91	26	1	6	31	119	2	6	1	197	251	297	548	100	244	24	6	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	73	70	22	9	0	4	2	21	0	0	0	314	333	614	948	300	391	29	3	403	159	+5	+0	-3	-9	+2	-0.5
2018	23	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	444	404	101	19	0	11	29	89	5	7	4	250	308	379	687	129	286	20	7	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	409	373	84	19	0	21	26	116	7	1	1	225	288	445	733	220	267	28	6	321	103	+1	-0	-5	-9	+9	-0.4
2019	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	109	96	31	8	0	6	11	31	1	0	0	323	398	594	992	271	406	28	10	417	168	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	127	114	32	5	0	8	10	20	1	0	1	281	344	535	879	254	276	16	8	377	141	+6	-0	-2	-2	+3	0.5
2021	26	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	325	301	72	15	2	10	19	65	4	0	0	239	293	402	695	163	275	20	6	312	97	-1	+0	-6	-7	+7	-0.7
2021	26	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	63	55	14	3	0	4	6	14	2	0	0	255	349	527	876	273	273	22	10	372	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	599	538	116	25	0	33	53	121	5	2	1	216	292	446	738	230	215	20	9	324	106	+4	+0	-8	-11	+13	-0.2
2023	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	351	313	67	10	1	12	33	86	0	0	0	214	289	367	656	153	249	25	9	293	84	-7	+0	-4	-7	+8	-1.0
2023	28	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	34	33	7	2	0	1	1	9	0	0	0	212	235	364	599	152	240	26	3	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	421	383	93	17	0	14	31	89	2	1	0	243	303	397	700	154	280	21	7	311	97	-2	+0	-8	-8	+9	-0.8
2025	30	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	312	289	65	11	0	16	17	83	3	1	0	225	275	429	704	204	255	27	5	306	94	-2	+0	-6	-6	+7	-0.7
2025	30	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	16	15	4	1	0	1	1	7	0	0	0	267	312	533	846	267	351	44	6	369	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	408	374	78	18	0	11	31	113	1	5	2	209	271	345	616	136	264	28	8	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	—	141	130	23	4	2	2	9	38	1	1	0	177	236	285	520	108	231	27	6	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	ROK RAW	GCL Blue Jays	—	141	124	29	5	3	2	15	26	1	1	0	234	321	371	692	137	278	18	11	311	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	267	242	60	8	1	5	17	52	3	3	2	248	305	351	657	103	289	19	6	289	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	267	233	71	11	1	6	26	37	3	3	2	305	382	438	819	133	333	14	10	362	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	538	497	115	21	0	13	31	145	2	6	2	231	279	352	631	121	294	27	6	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A RAW	3 teams	—	538	483	140	28	0	18	45	104	2	6	2	290	353	460	812	170	331	19	8	356	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	564	507	134	29	2	16	44	127	6	4	3	264	330	424	754	160	318	23	8	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA RAW	2 teams	—	564	480	140	30	2	25	71	103	6	4	3	292	390	519	908	227	320	18	13	395	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	501	461	91	26	1	6	31	119	2	6	1	197	251	297	548	100	248	24	6	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	—	501	445	99	29	1	6	47	94	2	6	1	222	300	333	632	110	264	19	9	285	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	517	474	123	28	0	15	31	110	5	7	4	259	312	414	725	154	303	21	6	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	517	463	128	31	0	17	42	95	5	7	4	276	343	454	797	177	310	18	8	349	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	518	469	115	27	0	27	37	147	8	1	1	245	311	475	787	230	294	28	7	341	117	+10	-0	-5	-9	+11	0.7
2019	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	518	463	118	28	0	28	43	141	8	1	1	255	329	497	826	242	302	27	8	359	117	+10	-0	-5	-9	+11	0.7
2020	25	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	127	114	32	5	0	8	10	20	1	0	1	281	344	535	879	254	273	16	8	377	141	+6	-0	-2	-2	+3	0.5
2020	25	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	—	127	113	32	5	0	8	11	20	1	0	1	283	352	540	892	257	276	16	9	383	141	+6	-0	-2	-2	+3	0.5
2021	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	388	356	86	18	2	14	25	79	6	0	0	242	302	421	724	180	273	20	6	322	104	+2	+0	-6	-7	+8	-0.2
2021	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	388	350	88	18	2	16	31	77	6	0	0	251	323	451	774	200	279	20	8	342	104	+2	+0	-6	-7	+8	-0.2
2022	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	599	538	116	25	0	33	53	121	5	2	1	216	292	446	738	230	214	20	9	324	106	+4	+0	-8	-11	+13	-0.2
2022	27	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	—	599	529	116	23	0	35	62	121	5	2	1	219	307	461	768	242	215	20	10	337	106	+4	+0	-8	-11	+13	-0.2
2023	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	385	346	73	11	1	13	34	95	0	0	0	211	282	361	643	150	247	25	9	288	81	-9	+0	-4	-7	+8	-1.1
2023	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	385	342	74	11	1	14	38	93	0	0	0	216	295	377	672	161	250	24	10	298	81	-9	+0	-4	-7	+8	-1.1
2024	29	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	421	383	93	17	0	14	31	89	2	1	0	243	303	397	700	154	277	21	7	311	97	-2	+0	-8	-8	+9	-0.8
2024	29	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	421	383	93	18	0	13	31	89	2	1	0	243	303	392	695	149	280	21	7	307	97	-2	+0	-8	-8	+9	-0.8
2025	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	328	304	68	12	0	17	18	90	3	1	0	224	274	431	705	207	255	27	5	309	96	-2	+0	-6	-6	+7	-0.6
2025	30	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	328	304	71	12	0	19	18	89	3	1	0	234	283	461	744	227	261	27	5	323	96	-2	+0	-6	-6	+7	-0.6
2026	31	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	408	374	78	18	0	11	31	113	1	5	2	209	271	345	616	136	266	28	8	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	—	408	356	95	23	0	16	49	94	1	5	2	267	357	466	823	199	319	23	12	364	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	—	141	130	23	4	2	2	9	38	1	1	0	177	236	285	520	108	223	27	6	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	267	245	60	8	1	5	17	52	3	3	2	245	305	347	652	102	288	19	6	289	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	538	500	115	21	0	13	31	145	2	6	2	230	279	350	629	120	285	27	6	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	564	509	134	29	2	16	44	127	6	4	3	263	330	422	753	159	314	23	8	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	501	463	91	26	1	6	31	119	2	6	1	197	251	296	547	99	244	24	6	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	517	476	123	28	0	15	31	110	5	7	4	258	312	412	724	153	301	21	6	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	518	468	115	27	0	27	37	147	8	1	1	246	311	476	788	231	296	28	7	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	127	115	32	5	0	8	10	20	1	0	1	278	344	530	874	252	276	16	8	377	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	388	354	86	18	2	14	25	79	6	0	0	243	302	424	726	181	274	20	6	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	599	536	116	25	0	33	53	121	5	2	1	216	292	448	740	231	215	20	9	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	385	348	73	11	1	13	34	95	0	0	0	210	282	359	641	149	248	25	9	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	421	385	93	17	0	14	31	89	2	1	0	242	303	395	698	153	280	21	7	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	328	304	68	12	0	17	18	90	3	1	0	224	274	431	705	207	260	27	5	309	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	408	373	78	18	0	11	31	113	1	5	2	209	271	346	617	137	264	28	8	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	421	385	93	17	0	14	31	89	2	1	0	242	303	395	698	153	280	21	7	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	328	304	68	12	0	17	18	90	3	1	0	224	274	431	705	207	260	27	5	309	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	408	373	78	18	0	11	31	113	1	5	2	209	271	346	617	137	264	28	8	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	ATL	45%	397	364	81	17	1	16	28	101	2	3	1	221	281	400	680	178	259	25	7	300	89	-5	+0	-0	-7	+9	-0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	ATL	45%	131	120	27	6	0	5	9	33	1	1	0	221	281	400	680	178	259	25	7	300	89	-2	+0	-0	-2	+3	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	ATL	100%	256	235	50	10	0	10	18	67	1	0	1	213	271	380	652	168	251	26	7	288	81	-6	-0	-4	-5	+6	-1.0
2028	33	MLB CTX	ATL	100%	256	235	50	10	0	10	18	67	1	0	1	213	271	380	652	168	251	26	7	288	81	-6	-0	-4	-5	+6	-1.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2873	2597	602	118	3	132	228	668	23	5	4	232	300	432	732	200	258	23	8	321	91	+12	-1	-46	-63	+62	-3.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	588	137	27	1	30	52	151	5	1	1	233	301	435	736	202	260	23	8	321	91	+3	-0	-10	-14	+14	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	6250	5697	1316	272	9	215	441	1486	48	39	19	231	292	395	687	164	271	24	7	303	91	+8	-1	-46	-68	+69	-3.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	136	28	1	22	46	155	5	4	2	230	290	392	682	162	271	24	7	303	91	+2	-0	-9	-14	+14	-0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 408 PAwOBA .354 → .271 (−83)K% 23.0% → 27.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.04%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	27.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.52%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.962	7.65%
HBP% /PA	0.25%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.22%
Singles /BIP	21.37%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.977	×0.962	18.68%
Doubles /BIP	8.78%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.977	×0.962	6.85%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.977	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.11%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.962	4.11%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .354 → .271; ISO .199 → .142; BABIP .319 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAARound Rock Express · 16 PAwOBA .481 → .369 (−112)K% 37.5% → 41.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	37.50%	÷1.086	×1.200	—	—	41.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.25%	÷0.962	×0.690	—	×0.972	4.36%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.22%	÷1.053	×0.930	—	×0.972	19.08%
Doubles /BIP	11.11%	÷0.881	×0.830	—	×0.972	10.17%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.921	×0.970	—	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	22.22%	÷0.913	×0.700	—	×0.972	16.55%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 111, 2B 76, 3B 84, K 117, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .481 → .369; ISO .467 → .346; BABIP .429 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAANashville Sounds · 34 PAwOBA .285 → .243 (−42)K% 20.6% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.59%	÷0.978	×1.200	—	—	25.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.88%	÷0.995	×0.690	—	×0.992	4.05%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷0.953	×0.930	—	×0.992	16.14%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷0.971	×0.830	—	×0.992	7.06%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.17%	÷0.905	×0.700	—	×0.992	3.20%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 91, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 96, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .285 → .243; ISO .161 → .129; BABIP .261 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAANashville Sounds · 63 PAwOBA .446 → .372 (−74)K% 19.0% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.05%	÷1.024	×1.200	—	—	22.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.70%	÷0.946	×0.690	—	×1.018	9.43%
HBP% /PA	3.17%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	3.04%
Singles /BIP	17.07%	÷0.966	×0.930	—	×1.018	16.73%
Doubles /BIP	9.76%	÷1.030	×0.830	—	×1.018	8.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	—	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	12.20%	÷0.915	×0.700	—	×1.018	9.50%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 93, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 105, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .446 → .372; ISO .358 → .283; BABIP .306 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAABuffalo Bisons · 109 PAwOBA .476 → .417 (−60)K% 22.9% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.94%	÷0.968	×1.200	—	—	28.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.84%	÷0.953	×0.690	—	×1.048	9.75%
HBP% /PA	0.92%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.90%
Singles /BIP	26.47%	÷1.011	×0.930	—	×1.048	25.51%
Doubles /BIP	13.24%	÷0.954	×0.830	—	×1.048	12.07%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.909	×0.970	—	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	10.29%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.048	9.07%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 102, 2B 91, 3B 82, K 94, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .476 → .417; ISO .323 → .280; BABIP .435 → .406. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAABuffalo Bisons · 444 PAwOBA .334 → .302 (−33)K% 16.7% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.67%	÷0.993	×1.200	—	—	20.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.56%	÷0.954	×0.690	—	×1.050	6.50%
HBP% /PA	1.13%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.11%
Singles /BIP	22.26%	÷0.970	×0.930	×0.990	×1.050	22.19%
Doubles /BIP	6.90%	÷0.987	×0.830	×0.990	×1.050	6.03%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.990	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.08%	÷1.080	×0.840	—	×1.050	3.33%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 94, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 99, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .334 → .302; ISO .155 → .131; BABIP .298 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAABuffalo Bisons · 501 PAwOBA .279 → .244 (−34)K% 18.8% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.76%	÷0.950	×1.200	—	—	23.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.78%	÷1.027	×0.690	—	×1.050	6.19%
HBP% /PA	0.40%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.39%
Singles /BIP	17.95%	÷1.021	×0.930	×0.974	×1.050	16.73%
Doubles /BIP	8.26%	÷0.940	×0.830	×0.974	×1.050	7.46%
Triples /BIP	0.28%	÷0.961	×0.970	×0.974	×1.050	0.29%
Home runs /BIP	1.71%	÷0.903	×0.840	—	×1.050	1.67%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 104, 2B 88, 3B 92, K 90, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.

Result: wOBA .279 → .244; ISO .110 → .103; BABIP .264 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 514 PAwOBA .392 → .334 (−59)K% 17.9% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.90%	÷0.969	×1.220	—	—	22.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.48%	÷1.079	×0.700	—	×1.050	7.82%
HBP% /PA	1.17%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	1.04%
Singles /BIP	21.97%	÷0.995	×0.970	×1.003	×1.050	22.56%
Doubles /BIP	8.38%	÷1.000	×0.860	×1.003	×1.050	7.59%
Triples /BIP	0.58%	÷1.031	×0.950	×1.003	×1.050	0.56%
Home runs /BIP	6.65%	÷1.292	×0.780	—	×1.050	4.21%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 158, 1B 99, 2B 100, 3B 106, K 94, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .392 → .334; ISO .233 → .172; BABIP .324 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brandon Mosslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,459 PA	5.2	3,459	160	11	238	315	455	-53	-41	5.9	5.9
/162	664	31	2	-10.2	-7.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#2Lee Stevens'90-'02 * career totals — 10 seasons, 3,724 PA	5.6	3,724	144	9	245*	312*	440*	-68	-11	3.2	4.2
/162	664	26	2	-12.2	-1.9	0.6	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	4.5	3,004	137	6	232	296	432	-54	-62	3.5	3.9
/162	664	30	1	-11.9	-13.8	0.8	pk7: 4
#3Steve Balboni'81-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,440 PA	5.2	3,440	181	1	227*	293*	471*	-69	-19	2.6	3.3
/162	664	35	0	-13.3	-3.7	0.5	pk7: 4
#4Logan Morrisonlast yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,713 PA	5.6	3,713	137	23	239	325	427	-58	-79	1.7	2.6
/162	664	24	4	-10.4	-14.1	0.3	pk7: 3
#5Charlie Spikes'72-'80 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,232 PA	3.4	2,232	65	27	246*	307*	433*	-26	-16	1.3	1.7
/162	664	19	8	-7.6	-4.6	0.4	pk7: 2
#6Seth Brownlast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,799 PA	2.7	1,799	74	24	227	293	421	-23	-34	-0.8	-0.8
/162	664	27	9	-8.6	-12.4	-0.3	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rowdy Tellez (OGILVIE)	32	—	—	—	—	219/279/396	177	259	11	2	25%	7%	89	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brett Harper 2013 · AAA	32	48→51	54→60	38→30	42	250/301/419	168	299	23	5	25%	5%	102	+1.5	243/301/404	161	303	22	6	26%	7%	99	+1.2	229/285/373	144	281	22	0	27%	6%	84	+0.1
✕Felix Perez 2017 · AAA	32	47→54	51→60	38→50	44	241/288/403	161	277	19	5	21%	6%	93	+0.8	235/287/404	169	274	22	5	23%	6%	93	+0.8	218/271/411	193	237	28	0	23%	5%	90	+0.3
✕Aaron Guiel 2005 · MLB	32	46→53	52→60	37→45	50	235/313/404	169	268	19	6	20%	8%	103	+1.5	226/306/410	184	258	22	6	22%	8%	102	+1.5	218/301/405	187	246	23	4	22%	8%	99	+1.2
✕Andy Abad 2006 · MLB	33	47→48	52→50	40→45	47	244/290/407	164	262	20	6	16%	6%	95	+0.9	235/281/366	131	256	16	6	15%	5%	82	-0.0	227/272/334	107	246	14	4	14%	5%	70	-0.3
✕Refugio Cervantes 2012 · AAA	33	49→52	54→60	39→30	44	255/291/426	171	268	23	2	16%	4%	100	+1.3	233/266/374	141	274	18	3	22%	4%	78	-0.3	217/244/338	121	265	15	0	25%	3%	61	-0.7
✕Scott Seabol 2007 · MLB	32	44→42	53→55	38→40	45	229/284/401	173	270	20	3	24%	7%	91	+0.7	234/288/421	187	269	23	7	22%	7%	97	+1.1	228/281/424	196	253	25	5	21%	6%	95	+0.9
✕Jake Lamb 2023 · MLB	32	43→53	52→60	40→45	47	222/304/389	167	295	20	3	31%	9%	97	+1.1	218/294/339	121	286	13	3	27%	8%	81	-0.1	207/284/306	98	273	10	1	26%	8%	68	-0.6
✕Daryle Ward 2007 · MLB	32	51→55	53→60	37→30	50	260/316/438	178	275	21	3	15%	7%	111	+2.1	250/318/415	165	286	18	4	19%	9%	107	+1.8	226/293/367	141	261	16	2	20%	8%	86	+0.1
✕Yoshi Tsutsugo 2023 · MLB	31	42→41	49→50	39→30	52	216/299/359	143	271	18	2	27%	10%	87	+0.4	224/310/364	140	307	16	7	30%	11%	93	+0.8	208/312/349	140	296	16	5	32%	12%	87	+0.2
✕John Rodriguez 2010 · AAA	32	42→47	50→55	40	43	219/289/371	152	277	18	3	27%	7%	86	+0.3	214/279/354	140	260	15	8	23%	6%	78	-0.3	179/254/309	130	192	10	8	13%	6%	58	-0.4
✕Paul McAnulty 2011 · MLB	30	42→51	52→55	38→40	47	223/286/386	163	260	21	2	23%	8%	88	+0.5	224/285/390	166	268	20	4	24%	7%	89	+0.5	215/280/381	166	257	20	3	25%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Mitch Moreland 2018 · MLB	32	45→55	55→60	42→40	48	238/304/424	186	268	24	2	22%	8%	104	+1.6	243/317/451	208	276	26	3	22%	10%	115	+2.4	243/320/467	224	271	28	2	22%	10%	120	+1.5
✕Cory Aldridge 2010 · AAA	31	45→47	52→55	41→45	42	235/285/403	168	295	20	4	28%	6%	92	+0.7	221/269/383	162	303	20	6	33%	6%	81	-0.1	205/268/370	165	274	26	5	35%	8%	78	-0.2
✕Jared Walsh 2024 · MLB	31	39→49	52→60	40→30	43	209/276/369	160	282	21	3	33%	8%	81	-0.1	198/273/340	142	302	17	6	38%	9%	74	-0.6	155/234/283	128	244	17	2	42%	9%	44	-1.0
●Chris Colabello 2015 · MLB	31	47→57	53→60	37→40	43	243/297/415	173	303	22	2	27%	6%	99	+1.3	239/294/385	146	319	18	4	30%	6%	91	+0.6	226/286/353	127	307	16	2	30%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Troy O'Leary 2002 · MLB	32	49→53	51→50	39→30	49	248/305/418	170	272	17	3	17%	7%	102	+1.5	248/311/383	135	282	13	6	16%	8%	97	+1.1	251/319/357	106	287	9	5	15%	8%	94	+0.4
✕Matt Clark 2019 · AAA	32	44→45	50→55	44→30	42	226/277/379	153	288	19	5	28%	6%	84	+0.1	233/294/419	186	283	23	6	26%	7%	99	+1.3	220/286/429	209	251	27	0	25%	8%	100	+0.7
✕Shelley Duncan 2013 · MLB	33	41→44	54→60	40→45	51	221/297/399	178	253	23	4	23%	9%	96	+1.0	192/258/324	132	234	15	4	25%	8%	64	-1.3	155/214/261	106	191	12	0	26%	6%	32	-2.7
✕Craig Monroe 2008 · MLB	31	46→56	54→60	37→45	45	242/290/423	180	277	22	4	22%	6%	99	+1.2	228/288/402	174	274	22	4	25%	7%	93	+0.8	201/268/403	201	232	27	0	27%	8%	87	+0.1
✕Greg Jacobs 2008 · AAA	31	48→49	50→55	39→40	44	244/286/405	161	264	18	4	16%	5%	93	+0.8	232/279/360	128	264	12	5	17%	5%	79	-0.2	226/276/323	97	262	8	2	17%	6%	68	-0.4

Rowdy Tellez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps