Chris Colabello
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 31 | AAATOR | 95 | .337/.421/.554 | 5 | 0 | 129 | — | .295/.347/.466 | |
| 2015 | 31 | MLBTOR | 360 | .321/.369/.520 | 15 | 2 | 149 | 1.1 | ||
| 2016 | 32 | AAA/A+TOR | 173 | .185/.256/.293 | 5 | 0 | 8 | — | .135/.180/.196 | |
| 2016 | 32 | MLBTOR | 32 | .069/.156/.069 | 0 | 0 | -31 | -0.8 | ||
| 2017 | 33 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 557 | .253/.354/.384 | 13 | 3 | 58 | — | .185/.260/.281 | |
| 2018 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2019 | 35 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2020 | 36 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2021 | 37 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2022 | 38 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 39 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 40 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 41 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 42 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 28 | AA | New Britain Rock Cats | — | 562 | 496 | 141 | 37 | 1 | 19 | 47 | 94 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 284 | 361 | 478 | 839 | 194 | 314 | 17 | 8 | 368 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 28 | INTL | Algodoneros de Guasave | — | 234 | 205 | 68 | 13 | 0 | 17 | 23 | 47 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 332 | 404 | 644 | 1.048 | 312 | 354 | 20 | 10 | 444 | 187 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 29 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | — | 181 | 160 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 58 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 194 | 287 | 344 | 631 | 150 | 253 | 32 | 11 | 288 | 81 | -4 | -0 | -0 | -11 | +4 | -1.3 |
| 2013 | 29 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 391 | 338 | 119 | 25 | 0 | 24 | 43 | 89 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 352 | 433 | 639 | 1.072 | 287 | 413 | 23 | 11 | 458 | 144 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 29 | INTL | Toros del Este | — | 64 | 58 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 190 | 254 | 190 | 444 | 275 | 28 | 6 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2014 | 30 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | — | 220 | 205 | 47 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 66 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 229 | 282 | 380 | 662 | 151 | 308 | 30 | 6 | 296 | 84 | -4 | -1 | -7 | -8 | +5 | -1.6 |
| 2014 | 30 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 238 | 213 | 57 | 13 | 0 | 10 | 21 | 55 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 268 | 339 | 469 | 808 | 202 | 313 | 23 | 9 | 355 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 31 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 360 | 333 | 107 | 19 | 1 | 15 | 22 | 96 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 321 | 369 | 520 | 888 | 198 | 411 | 27 | 6 | 389 | 149 | +21 | +0 | -13 | -5 | +8 | 1.1 |
| 2015 | 31 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 95 | 83 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 337 | 421 | 554 | 975 | 217 | 390 | 20 | 12 | 429 | 129 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 32 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 32 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 69 | 156 | 69 | 225 | 100 | 28 | 6 | 123 | -31 | -5 | +0 | -0 | -4 | +1 | -0.8 | |
| 2016 | 32 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 153 | 139 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 46 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 180 | 250 | 288 | 538 | 108 | 225 | 30 | 7 | 246 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 32 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 20 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 300 | 333 | 633 | 111 | 308 | 25 | 10 | 289 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 33 | AAA | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 483 | 418 | 106 | 21 | 1 | 12 | 58 | 113 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 254 | 351 | 395 | 746 | 141 | 319 | 23 | 12 | 337 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 33 | INTL | Charros de Jalisco | — | 74 | 61 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 246 | 370 | 311 | 681 | 66 | 311 | 22 | 16 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 793 | 727 | 187 | 35 | 1 | 28 | 58 | 229 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 257 | 317 | 424 | 741 | 166 | 337 | 29 | 7 | 329 | 109 | +8 | -1 | -20 | -28 | +17 | -2.4 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 28 | AA MLE | New Britain Rock Cats | — | 562 | 515 | 127 | 29 | 1 | 18 | 29 | 117 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 247 | 303 | 412 | 715 | 165 | 277 | 21 | 5 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 29 | MLB MLE | Minnesota Twins | — | 181 | 160 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 58 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 194 | 287 | 344 | 631 | 150 | 253 | 32 | 11 | 287 | 81 | -4 | -0 | -0 | -11 | +4 | -1.3 |
| 2013 | 29 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 391 | 355 | 105 | 21 | 0 | 21 | 26 | 108 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 296 | 352 | 532 | 885 | 237 | 359 | 28 | 7 | 381 | 144 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 30 | MLB MLE | Minnesota Twins | — | 220 | 206 | 47 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 66 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 228 | 277 | 379 | 656 | 150 | 308 | 30 | 6 | 292 | 84 | -4 | -1 | -7 | -8 | +5 | -1.6 |
| 2014 | 30 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 238 | 223 | 49 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 66 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 220 | 263 | 372 | 635 | 152 | 270 | 28 | 5 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 31 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 360 | 333 | 107 | 19 | 1 | 15 | 22 | 96 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 321 | 369 | 520 | 888 | 198 | 411 | 27 | 6 | 388 | 149 | +21 | +0 | -13 | -5 | +8 | 1.1 |
| 2015 | 31 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 95 | 88 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 295 | 347 | 466 | 813 | 170 | 360 | 24 | 6 | 359 | 129 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 32 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 32 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 69 | 156 | 69 | 225 | 100 | 28 | 6 | 123 | -31 | -5 | +0 | -0 | -4 | +1 | -0.8 | |
| 2016 | 32 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 153 | 144 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 59 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 139 | 184 | 201 | 386 | 62 | 201 | 39 | 4 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 32 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 20 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 105 | 150 | 158 | 308 | 53 | 258 | 35 | 5 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 33 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 483 | 437 | 81 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 39 | 153 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 185 | 260 | 281 | 541 | 96 | 258 | 32 | 8 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 796 | 731 | 179 | 41 | 1 | 25 | 41 | 166 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 245 | 299 | 406 | 705 | 161 | 281 | 21 | 5 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 28 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 796 | 701 | 209 | 50 | 1 | 36 | 70 | 141 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 298 | 374 | 526 | 900 | 228 | 325 | 18 | 9 | 391 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 29 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 636 | 572 | 152 | 27 | 0 | 31 | 51 | 185 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 266 | 333 | 476 | 809 | 210 | 335 | 29 | 8 | 351 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 29 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 636 | 556 | 161 | 28 | 0 | 31 | 67 | 165 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 290 | 373 | 507 | 880 | 218 | 356 | 26 | 11 | 385 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 458 | 429 | 96 | 23 | 0 | 14 | 24 | 132 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 224 | 270 | 375 | 645 | 152 | 288 | 29 | 5 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 30 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 458 | 418 | 104 | 26 | 0 | 16 | 35 | 121 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 249 | 311 | 426 | 737 | 177 | 311 | 26 | 8 | 326 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 31 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 455 | 421 | 133 | 22 | 1 | 19 | 28 | 119 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 316 | 364 | 508 | 873 | 192 | 400 | 26 | 6 | 382 | 145 | +24 | +0 | -13 | -5 | +10 | 1.7 |
| 2015 | 31 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 455 | 416 | 135 | 22 | 1 | 20 | 33 | 115 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 325 | 380 | 526 | 906 | 202 | 406 | 25 | 7 | 397 | 145 | +24 | +0 | -13 | -5 | +10 | 1.7 |
| 2016 | 32 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 205 | 191 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 126 | 181 | 178 | 359 | 52 | 184 | 37 | 5 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 32 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 205 | 186 | 31 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 240 | 258 | 498 | 91 | 213 | 29 | 7 | 231 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 33 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 557 | 504 | 93 | 15 | 1 | 10 | 45 | 177 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 185 | 258 | 278 | 536 | 93 | 259 | 32 | 8 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 33 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 557 | 479 | 121 | 22 | 1 | 13 | 70 | 129 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 253 | 354 | 384 | 738 | 132 | 318 | 23 | 13 | 335 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 796 | 734 | 179 | 41 | 1 | 25 | 41 | 166 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 244 | 299 | 405 | 703 | 161 | 277 | 21 | 5 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 29 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 636 | 573 | 152 | 27 | 0 | 31 | 51 | 185 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 265 | 333 | 475 | 808 | 209 | 325 | 29 | 8 | 351 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 458 | 428 | 96 | 23 | 0 | 14 | 24 | 132 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 224 | 270 | 376 | 646 | 152 | 288 | 29 | 5 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 31 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 455 | 420 | 133 | 22 | 1 | 19 | 28 | 119 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 317 | 364 | 510 | 874 | 193 | 400 | 26 | 6 | 382 | 145 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 32 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 205 | 190 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 126 | 181 | 179 | 360 | 53 | 191 | 37 | 5 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 33 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 557 | 502 | 93 | 15 | 1 | 10 | 45 | 177 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 185 | 258 | 279 | 537 | 94 | 258 | 32 | 8 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 793 | 727 | 187 | 35 | 1 | 28 | 58 | 229 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 257 | 317 | 424 | 741 | 166 | 337 | 29 | 7 | 329 | 91 | +8 | -1 | -20 | -28 | +17 | -2.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 596 | 154 | 29 | 1 | 23 | 48 | 188 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 258 | 319 | 426 | 746 | 168 | 339 | 29 | 7 | 329 | 91 | +7 | -1 | -17 | -23 | +14 | -2.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3107 | 2848 | 677 | 129 | 3 | 102 | 199 | 854 | 37 | 7 | 9 | 238 | 296 | 393 | 689 | 155 | 301 | 27 | 6 | 303 | 91 | +8 | -1 | -20 | -28 | +17 | -2.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 596 | 142 | 27 | 1 | 21 | 42 | 179 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 238 | 297 | 393 | 690 | 154 | 302 | 28 | 6 | 303 | 91 | +7 | -1 | -17 | -23 | +14 | -2.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2017 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 483 PAwOBA .330 → .243 (−87)K% 23.4% → 31.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.40% | ÷0.953 | ×1.290 | — | — | 31.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.01% | ÷0.995 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.940 | 8.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.04% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.940 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.61% | ÷1.018 | ×0.900 | ×1.035 | ×0.940 | 20.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.89% | ÷1.163 | ×0.810 | ×1.035 | ×0.940 | 4.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.33% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.035 | ×0.940 | 0.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.93% | ÷0.933 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 3.09% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 104, 2B 133, 3B 130, K 91, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.
Result: wOBA .330 → .243; ISO .141 → .099; BABIP .319 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAABuffalo Bisons · 153 PAwOBA .238 → .177 (−61)K% 30.1% → 38.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.07% | ÷0.937 | ×1.200 | — | — | 38.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.54% | ÷1.034 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.942 | 4.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.31% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.942 | 1.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.51% | ÷1.008 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.942 | 19.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.917 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.942 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.942 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.38% | ÷1.164 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.942 | 3.65% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 102, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 87, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .238 → .177; ISO .108 → .068; BABIP .225 → .201. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 20 PAwOBA .281 → .201 (−81)K% 25.0% → 37.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.955 | ×1.420 | — | — | 37.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.038 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.940 | 6.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.38% | ÷1.042 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.940 | 12.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.38% | ÷1.064 | ×0.960 | — | ×0.940 | 13.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.912 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 108, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 91, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 22.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (10.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .281 → .201; ISO .111 → .081; BABIP .308 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAABuffalo Bisons · 95 PAwOBA .415 → .359 (−56)K% 20.0% → 23.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.008 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.53% | ÷1.040 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.952 | 6.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.05% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.952 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.25% | ÷0.981 | ×0.930 | ×1.048 | ×0.952 | 29.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.69% | ÷0.944 | ×0.830 | ×1.048 | ×0.952 | 4.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.048 | ×0.952 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.81% | ÷0.966 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.952 | 6.46% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 96, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 102, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.
Result: wOBA .415 → .359; ISO .217 → .185; BABIP .390 → .360. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAARochester Red Wings · 238 PAwOBA .345 → .275 (−70)K% 23.1% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.11% | ÷1.002 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.98% | ÷1.125 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.962 | 4.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.84% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.962 | 0.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.52% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | ×1.031 | ×0.962 | 19.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.23% | ÷1.059 | ×0.830 | ×1.031 | ×0.962 | 6.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.031 | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.33% | ÷1.075 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.962 | 4.76% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 102, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 100, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .345 → .275; ISO .202 → .154; BABIP .313 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAARochester Red Wings · 391 PAwOBA .449 → .381 (−68)K% 22.8% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.76% | ÷0.987 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.23% | ÷1.026 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 6.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.28% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 1.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.11% | ÷1.040 | ×0.930 | ×1.027 | ×0.972 | 25.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.04% | ÷0.977 | ×0.830 | ×1.027 | ×0.972 | 8.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.027 | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.64% | ÷0.938 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.972 | 8.39% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 108, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 97, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .449 → .381; ISO .287 → .251; BABIP .413 → .359. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AANew Britain Rock Cats · 562 PAwOBA .360 → .307 (−54)K% 16.7% → 20.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.73% | ÷0.983 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.01% | ÷1.036 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 5.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.31% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 1.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.90% | ÷1.015 | ×0.970 | ×1.015 | ×0.958 | 19.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.20% | ÷1.067 | ×0.860 | ×1.015 | ×0.958 | 7.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.25% | ÷0.981 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | ×0.958 | 0.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.73% | ÷0.811 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 4.35% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 62, 1B 103, 2B 113, 3B 96, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .360 → .307; ISO .194 → .170; BABIP .314 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .