CJ Alexander

1B Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 31 L/R 6'3" / 215 lbs AAA HR -6% Svc 2.000S2 · Ctrl thru 2030

Overview

AAAROOKIEArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	28	AAAOAK	411	.302/.361/.559	19	2	89	—	.237/.285/.414
2025	29	AAALAD	466	.254/.336/.448	15	7	65	—	.208/.261/.349
2025	29	MLBOAK	17	.176/.176/.176	0	0	-7	-1.1
2026	30	AAAHOU	373	.250/.339/.512	21	2	64	—	.187/.250/.362
2027PROJ10% MLB	31	MLBHOU	16	.225/.281/.389	0	0	85	-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	32	MLBHOU	68	.220/.276/.376	2	0	80	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.1 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.000First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$0.2M2028Arb-2$0.3M2029Ext$0.4M2030Ext$0.7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Max EV90

BB%56

Speed42

Chase%36

Whiff%21

K%20

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsBaltazar Lopez (age 31) · Daniel Palka (age 31) · Travis Ishikawa (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†85

AVG/OBP/SLG.225 / .281 / .389

PA16

HR0

K%31

BB%6

BABIP302

ISO67

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2025

CONTACT45

xAVG

100.128

POWER55

Avg EV

1055.6

Bat Spd

8474.9

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2025

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-2	$0.3M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	22	A+	Florida Fire Frogs	—	88	80	26	5	1	1	8	17	0	3	1	325	386	450	836	125	403	19	9	374	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	ROK	Danville Braves	—	138	116	43	3	6	1	19	25	1	1	1	371	463	526	989	155	457	18	14	431	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	78	68	7	1	0	2	8	25	0	0	0	103	195	206	401	103	119	32	10	188	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+	Florida Fire Frogs	—	74	60	8	1	0	0	14	18	0	3	1	133	297	150	447	17	190	24	19	235	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	330	304	60	17	4	10	24	105	1	14	1	197	258	378	637	181	263	32	7	281	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	490	455	120	18	2	25	26	111	2	19	4	264	306	477	783	213	291	23	5	338	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	314	286	63	17	1	13	24	94	1	4	2	220	283	423	706	203	275	30	8	309	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	ROK	ACL Royals	—	25	17	7	2	0	4	6	3	2	0	0	412	600	1.235	1.835	824	300	12	24	698	230	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	55	47	10	5	1	3	6	16	0	0	0	213	302	553	855	340	233	29	11	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	411	374	113	27	6	19	31	85	4	2	3	302	361	559	920	257	347	21	8	398	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB	Athletics	—	17	17	3	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	176	176	176	353		333	47	0	160	-7	-2	+0	-0	-9	+0	-1.1
2025	29	AAA	Oklahoma City Comets	—	466	413	105	23	6	15	51	130	0	7	3	254	336	448	784	194	333	28	11	346	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	373	328	82	21	1	21	43	111	1	2	1	250	339	512	851	262	310	30	12	371	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	17	17	3	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	176	176	176	353		333	47	0	160	-6	-2	+0	-0	-9	+0	-1.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	22	A+ MLE	Florida Fire Frogs	—	88	82	23	4	1	1	6	25	0	3	1	280	330	390	720	110	386	28	7	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	ROK MLE	Danville Braves	—	138	123	33	2	4	1	12	35	1	1	1	268	338	374	712	106	350	25	9	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	—	78	71	6	1	0	2	6	31	0	0	0	85	156	183	339	99	108	40	8	151	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+ MLE	Florida Fire Frogs	—	74	65	7	1	0	0	9	25	0	3	1	108	216	123	339	15	173	34	12	175	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	—	330	313	49	13	4	8	15	128	1	14	1	157	198	300	498	144	229	39	5	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	490	463	100	14	2	21	18	137	2	19	4	216	248	391	639	175	246	28	4	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	314	294	51	13	1	9	16	113	1	4	2	173	219	316	535	143	239	36	5	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	—	25	19	6	2	0	3	4	4	2	0	0	316	480	895	1.375	579	190	16	16	508	230	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	411	384	91	19	5	13	22	100	4	2	3	237	285	414	699	177	286	24	5	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	Athletics	—	17	17	3	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	176	176	176	353		333	47	0	158	-7	-2	+0	-0	-9	+0	-1.1
2025	29	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	—	466	433	90	18	5	11	31	154	0	7	3	208	261	349	610	141	289	33	7	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	373	343	64	16	1	14	28	133	1	2	1	187	250	362	612	175	248	36	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	226	205	55	6	5	2	18	61	1	4	2	268	330	376	706	107	368	27	8	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	226	196	69	8	7	2	27	42	1	4	2	352	433	495	928	143	435	19	12	409	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	152	136	13	2	0	2	15	56	0	3	1	96	185	154	340	59	139	37	10	163	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	152	128	15	2	0	2	22	43	0	3	1	117	245	180	425	62	155	28	14	211	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	—	330	313	49	13	4	8	15	128	1	14	1	157	198	300	498	144	230	39	5	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA RAW	Mississippi Braves	—	330	304	60	17	4	10	24	105	1	14	1	197	258	378	637	181	263	32	7	281	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	490	463	100	14	2	21	18	137	2	19	4	216	248	391	639	175	253	28	4	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	490	455	120	18	2	25	26	111	2	19	4	264	306	477	783	213	291	23	5	338	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	394	363	67	17	1	15	23	137	3	4	2	185	239	361	600	176	241	35	6	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	394	350	80	24	2	20	36	113	3	4	2	229	306	480	786	251	270	29	9	339	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	411	384	91	19	5	13	22	100	4	2	3	237	285	414	699	177	287	24	5	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	Las Vegas Aviators	—	411	374	113	27	6	19	31	85	4	2	3	302	361	559	920	257	347	21	8	398	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	483	450	93	18	5	11	31	162	0	7	3	207	258	342	600	136	294	34	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	483	430	108	23	6	15	51	138	0	7	3	251	331	437	768	186	333	29	11	339	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	373	343	64	16	1	14	28	133	1	2	1	187	250	362	612	175	254	36	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	373	328	82	21	1	21	43	111	1	2	1	250	339	512	851	262	310	30	12	371	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	226	205	55	6	5	2	18	61	1	4	2	268	330	376	706	107	364	27	8	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	152	136	13	2	0	2	15	56	0	3	1	96	185	154	340	59	140	37	10	163	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	—	330	311	49	13	4	8	15	128	1	14	1	158	198	302	500	145	229	39	5	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	490	467	100	14	2	21	18	137	2	19	4	214	248	388	636	173	246	28	4	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	394	365	67	17	1	15	23	137	3	4	2	184	239	359	598	175	235	35	6	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	411	382	91	19	5	13	22	100	4	2	3	238	285	416	702	178	286	24	5	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	483	449	93	18	5	11	31	162	0	7	3	207	258	343	601	136	291	34	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	373	341	64	16	1	14	28	133	1	2	1	188	250	364	614	176	248	36	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	28	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	411	382	91	19	5	13	22	100	4	2	3	238	285	416	702	178	286	24	5	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	483	449	93	18	5	11	31	162	0	7	3	207	258	343	601	136	291	34	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	373	341	64	16	1	14	28	133	1	2	1	188	250	364	614	176	248	36	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	31	MLB MLE	HOU	10%	380	350	79	17	3	12	26	119	1	4	2	223	278	386	664	163	297	31	7	293	85	-7	+0	+0	-7	+8	-0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	31	MLB CTX	HOU	10%	16	15	3	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	225	281	389	670	163	302	31	6	295	85	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	HOU	27%	250	230	51	11	2	7	17	78	1	1	1	218	274	373	647	155	292	31	7	286	80	-6	-0	-3	-4	+5	-0.9
2028	32	MLB CTX	HOU	27%	68	63	13	3	0	2	5	21	0	0	0	220	276	376	652	156	297	31	7	288	80	-2	+0	-1	-1	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	85	80	16	3	0	2	5	29	0	0	0	200	247	312	560	112	286	34	6	263	65	-4	+0	-1	-10	+2	-1.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	612	122	23	0	15	38	222	0	0	0	199	246	310	557	111	285	34	6	263	65	-29	+0	-7	-75	+14	-9.9
Career	—	MLE		—	3264	3030	615	123	26	98	198	1040	13	58	19	203	255	358	613	155	270	32	6	264	65	-11	-0	-3	-16	+9	-2.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	603	122	24	5	20	39	207	3	12	4	202	254	358	612	156	268	32	6	264	65	-17	-0	-5	-24	+14	-3.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 373 PAwOBA .360 → .263 (−97)K% 29.8% → 35.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.76%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	35.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.99%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.972	7.37%
HBP% /PA	0.27%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.24%
Singles /BIP	17.97%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.951	×0.972	15.44%
Doubles /BIP	9.68%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.951	×0.972	7.42%
Triples /BIP	0.46%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.951	×0.972	0.41%
Home runs /BIP	9.68%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.972	6.58%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.

Result: wOBA .360 → .263; ISO .262 → .180; BABIP .310 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 466 PAwOBA .338 → .264 (−73)K% 27.9% → 33.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.90%	÷1.015	×1.200	—	—	32.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.73%	÷1.083	×0.690	—	×0.982	6.71%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.55%	÷0.951	×0.930	×0.958	×0.982	19.81%
Doubles /BIP	8.13%	÷0.969	×0.830	×0.958	×0.982	6.55%
Triples /BIP	2.12%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.958	×0.982	1.68%
Home runs /BIP	5.30%	÷0.956	×0.700	—	×0.982	3.81%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 90, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 103, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .338 → .264; ISO .194 → .145; BABIP .333 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 411 PAwOBA .388 → .300 (−88)K% 20.7% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.68%	÷1.022	×1.200	—	—	24.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.54%	÷0.952	×0.690	—	×0.992	5.42%
HBP% /PA	0.97%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.91%
Singles /BIP	21.11%	÷0.974	×0.930	×0.950	×0.992	18.99%
Doubles /BIP	9.34%	÷1.088	×0.830	×0.950	×0.992	6.72%
Triples /BIP	2.08%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×0.992	1.65%
Home runs /BIP	6.57%	÷1.001	×0.700	—	×0.992	4.56%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 95, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 104, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .388 → .300; ISO .257 → .181; BABIP .347 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 314 PAwOBA .303 → .235 (−68)K% 29.9% → 36.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.94%	÷0.995	×1.200	—	—	36.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.64%	÷1.030	×0.690	—	×1.003	5.14%
HBP% /PA	0.32%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.30%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷0.978	×0.930	×0.976	×1.003	15.51%
Doubles /BIP	8.85%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.976	×1.003	7.19%
Triples /BIP	0.52%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.976	×1.003	0.43%
Home runs /BIP	6.77%	÷0.942	×0.700	—	×1.003	5.05%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 96, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 99, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .303 → .235; ISO .203 → .149; BABIP .275 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Royals · 25 PAwOBA .679 → .508 (−171)K% 12.0% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.00%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	17.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	24.00%	÷0.982	×0.620	—	×0.940	14.24%
HBP% /PA	8.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	5.41%
Singles /BIP	7.14%	÷1.029	×0.820	—	×0.940	5.35%
Doubles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	9.67%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.932	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	28.57%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.940	20.95%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 106, 2B 100, 3B 86, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .679 → .508; ISO .824 → .672; BABIP .300 → .190. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 490 PAwOBA .333 → .272 (−60)K% 22.7% → 28.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.65%	÷0.988	×1.220	—	—	27.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.10%	÷0.993	×0.700	—	×0.988	3.55%
HBP% /PA	0.41%	—	×0.870	—	×0.988	0.35%
Singles /BIP	21.80%	÷0.995	×0.920	×0.950	×0.988	18.91%
Doubles /BIP	5.23%	÷1.009	×0.840	×0.950	×0.988	4.09%
Triples /BIP	0.58%	÷0.900	×0.940	×0.950	×0.988	0.57%
Home runs /BIP	7.27%	÷0.905	×0.800	—	×0.988	6.34%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .333 → .272; ISO .213 → .178; BABIP .291 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAMississippi Braves · 330 PAwOBA .274 → .216 (−58)K% 31.8% → 38.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.82%	÷0.998	×1.220	—	—	38.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.27%	÷1.106	×0.690	—	×0.998	4.53%
HBP% /PA	0.30%	—	×0.850	—	×0.998	0.26%
Singles /BIP	14.57%	÷1.023	×0.940	×0.961	×0.998	12.85%
Doubles /BIP	8.54%	÷0.999	×0.870	×0.961	×0.998	7.13%
Triples /BIP	2.01%	÷0.900	×0.920	×0.961	×0.998	1.97%
Home runs /BIP	5.03%	÷0.861	×0.780	—	×0.998	4.54%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 105, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 100, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.

Result: wOBA .274 → .216; ISO .181 → .151; BABIP .263 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAMississippi Braves · 78 PAwOBA .186 → .151 (−34)K% 32.1% → 40.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.05%	÷0.975	×1.220	—	—	40.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.26%	÷0.967	×0.680	—	×1.027	7.40%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	0.00%
Singles /BIP	9.30%	÷1.068	×0.920	—	×1.027	8.23%
Doubles /BIP	2.33%	÷0.906	×0.910	—	×1.027	2.40%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.880	—	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.65%	÷0.900	×0.800	—	×1.027	4.25%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 114, 2B 81, 3B 80, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .186 → .151; ISO .103 → .091; BABIP .119 → .108. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
CJ Alexander (OGILVIE)	31	45	55	45	50	221/276/382	162	297	5	2	31%	7%	85	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Baltazar Lopez 2015 · AAA	31	46	50	42→45	40	231/283/380	149	305	18	5	30%	6%	86	+0.3	218/279/314	96	342	9	7	36%	7%	69	-0.9	201/270/244	43	352	4	2	40%	7%	51	-0.4
✕Daniel Palka 2023 · AAA	31	42→43	51→55	44→50	45	219/280/375	156	275	20	4	28%	8%	84	+0.1	211/266/349	138	275	17	6	29%	7%	72	-0.7	185/238/306	121	238	16	4	29%	6%	49	-1.7
✕Travis Ishikawa 2015 · MLB	31	47→50	47→55	48→45	44	234/298/369	136	304	15	3	27%	7%	89	+0.5	210/272/333	123	294	15	3	32%	7%	72	-0.7	188/251/299	111	268	14	0	34%	6%	54	-1.2
✕Edwin Rios 2024 · MLB	30	42→49	51→60	41→30	40	212/284/371	159	311	19	4	36%	7%	85	+0.2	212/280/372	160	316	19	3	37%	8%	83	+0.1	200/269/360	160	296	20	1	37%	8%	75	-0.4
✕Brad Nelson 2014 · AAA	31	41→50	50	45→50	46	217/275/364	147	262	18	4	25%	7%	80	-0.2	210/264/329	119	254	13	6	23%	6%	67	-1.1	180/229/262	82	212	9	0	20%	6%	38	-1.4
✕Jose Rojas 2024 · MLB	31	41→48	52→60	49→50	44	216/268/383	167	258	20	9	25%	6%	81	-0.1	209/274/398	189	248	24	11	26%	8%	87	+0.4	195/265/395	200	224	25	11	26%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Matt Clark 2019 · AAA	32	44→45	50→55	44→30	42	226/277/379	153	288	19	5	28%	6%	84	+0.1	233/294/419	186	283	23	6	26%	7%	99	+1.3	220/286/429	209	251	27	0	25%	8%	100	+0.7
✕Cory Aldridge 2010 · AAA	31	45→47	52→55	41→45	42	235/285/403	168	295	20	4	28%	6%	92	+0.7	221/269/383	162	303	20	6	33%	6%	81	-0.1	205/268/370	165	274	26	5	35%	8%	78	-0.2
✕Christian Bethancourt 2023 · MLB	31	47→53	50	49→50	40	241/279/393	152	291	18	8	24%	5%	87	+0.4	216/250/363	147	270	18	7	27%	4%	70	-0.9	188/219/324	137	234	18	5	29%	4%	48	-1.0
✕Brett Carroll 2013 · MLB	30	42→46	47→55	47→50	43	212/274/346	134	270	15	11	27%	6%	74	-0.5	204/269/335	131	275	16	10	30%	7%	70	-0.8	176/254/321	145	220	21	11	30%	8%	59	-0.9
✕Brandon Snyder 2018 · MLB	31	43→53	52→55	45	40	223/279/384	161	293	20	7	31%	6%	86	+0.3	199/253/365	166	294	22	5	39%	5%	72	-0.7	171/231/330	159	251	22	2	41%	5%	53	-1.3
●Danny Dorn 2015 · AAA	31	41→47	52→55	48→45	43	217/274/379	162	268	20	6	28%	7%	82	+0.0	261/313/419	158	320	16	7	23%	6%	105	+1.7	307/354/477	170	370	14	3	20%	5%	132	+2.2
✕Joe Borchard 2010 · MLB	31	39→43	49→55	45	40	205/254/353	148	266	17	6	30%	6%	69	-0.9	214/265/357	143	286	15	5	30%	6%	74	-0.6	209/260/353	144	278	15	2	30%	6%	70	-0.7
✕Graham Koonce 2006 · AAA	31	42→40	53→55	43→30	45	224/287/395	171	272	22	3	27%	7%	91	+0.7	208/281/381	173	260	22	4	29%	8%	86	+0.3	183/264/359	175	222	23	2	29%	9%	74	-0.3
✕Jamie Romak 2017 · MLB	31	40→48	51→55	49→45	41	211/269/376	165	288	19	7	33%	7%	80	-0.2	239/293/434	195	314	24	11	31%	6%	102	+1.5	239/279/528	288	282	41	10	32%	4%	115	+0.4
✕Chris Parmelee 2019 · AAA	31	40→50	48→55	44→45	47	207/276/347	141	270	17	6	30%	9%	76	-0.4	209/280/370	161	295	21	6	34%	9%	83	+0.1	174/254/338	164	231	24	0	36%	9%	66	-0.6
✕Yoshi Tsutsugo 2023 · MLB	31	42→41	49→50	39→30	52	216/299/359	143	271	18	2	27%	10%	87	+0.4	224/310/364	140	307	16	7	30%	11%	93	+0.8	208/312/349	140	296	16	5	32%	12%	87	+0.2
✕Jared Walsh 2024 · MLB	31	39→49	52→60	40→30	43	209/276/369	160	282	21	3	33%	8%	81	-0.1	198/273/340	142	302	17	6	38%	9%	74	-0.6	155/234/283	128	244	17	2	42%	9%	44	-1.0
✕Josh Lester 2024 · MLB	30	37→44	51→55	47→40	38	203/247/362	159	257	20	5	30%	5%	69	-0.9	210/258/360	150	259	19	6	26%	6%	72	-0.7	195/243/346	151	226	20	2	24%	6%	62	-1.1
✕Hunter Dozier 2023 · MLB	31	46→55	51→60	46→45	46	231/296/398	167	291	17	6	26%	8%	95	+0.9	210/265/353	143	284	16	8	31%	7%	73	-0.6	153/189/264	111	219	14	7	37%	4%	21	-1.6