CJ Alexander — OGILVIE

CJ Alexander1B Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 30 L/R 6'3" / 215 lbs AAA HR +6% Svc 1.000 · Ctrl thru 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION303 act + 202 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†72

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .265 / .373

PA202

HR7

K%35

BB%7

BABIP284

ISO168

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2025

CONTACT45

Whiff%

1023.6%

xwOBA

100.123

POWER55

Avg EV

1055.6

Bat Spd

8474.9

EYE50

Chase%

1048.3%

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	22	ROK	2 teams	—	226	205	56	6	5	2	18	62	1	4	2	273	335	380	715	107	378	27	8	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	ROK	2 teams	—	226	196	69	8	7	2	27	42	1	4	2	352	433	495	928	143	435	19	12	409	171	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	2 teams	—	152	136	13	2	0	2	15	58	0	3	1	96	185	154	340	59	143	38	10	163	-17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	2 teams	—	152	128	15	2	0	2	22	43	0	3	1	117	245	180	425	62	155	28	14	211	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	330	314	51	13	4	11	14	136	1	14	1	162	201	334	535	172	238	41	4	228	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	330	304	60	17	4	10	24	105	1	14	1	197	258	378	637	181	263	32	7	281	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	490	463	107	14	2	27	18	147	2	19	4	231	263	445	708	214	270	30	4	297	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	490	455	120	18	2	25	26	111	2	19	4	264	306	477	783	213	291	23	5	338	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	3 teams	—	394	363	71	17	1	18	23	138	3	4	2	196	249	397	646	201	250	35	6	272	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	3 teams	—	394	350	80	24	2	20	36	113	3	4	2	229	306	480	786	251	270	29	9	339	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	411	382	87	17	3	14	24	105	4	2	3	228	280	398	678	170	277	26	6	295	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	411	374	113	27	6	19	31	85	4	2	3	302	361	559	920	257	347	21	8	398	163	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA	2 teams	—	483	451	92	18	3	12	30	171	0	7	3	204	254	337	591	133	296	35	6	263	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA	2 teams	—	483	430	108	23	6	15	51	138	0	7	3	251	331	437	768	186	333	29	11	339	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	30	AAA	HOU	—	303	277	50	10	1	12	24	116	1	2	1	181	248	354	602	173	253	38	8	261	58	-14	+0	+0	-5	+9	-1.1
YTD	30	AAA	HOU	—	303	265	65	14	1	16	36	90	1	2	1	245	338	487	825	242	306	30	12	361	135	+12	+0	+0	-5	+9	1.5
ROS	30	AAA	HOU	10%	202	185	38	8	1	7	14	70	1	2	1	205	265	373	638	168	278	35	7	279	72	-7	+0	+0	-4	+6	-0.4
ROS	30	MLB	HOU	10%	20	19	4	1	0	1	1	7	0	0	0	211	250	421	671	211	281	35	5	280	72	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.0
FULL	30	AAA	HOU	—	323	296	54	11	1	13	25	123	1	2	1	182	248	358	607	176	255	38	8	262	59	-15	+0	+0	-6	+9	-1.2
TOT	30	AAA	HOU	—	505	462	88	18	2	19	38	186	2	4	2	190	255	361	616	171	266	37	8	268	63	-21	+0	+0	-9	+14	-1.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	31	MLB	HOU	27%	365	334	69	14	2	12	26	123	2	3	1	207	268	368	636	162	278	34	7	279	71	-12	+0	-3	-7	+10	-1.1
2027	31	MLB	HOU	27%	100	93	18	4	0	3	7	34	0	1	0	194	250	333	583	140	281	34	7	279	72	-3	+0	-1	-2	+3	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	137	129	25	5	0	4	8	49	0	1	0	194	241	326	566	132	276	36	6	264	61	-6	+0	-1	-11	+4	-1.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	612	119	24	0	19	38	232	0	5	0	194	242	327	568	132	277	36	6	264	61	-29	+1	-3	-51	+18	-6.5
Career	—			—	3053	2833	584	109	21	105	182	1010	14	58	18	206	258	371	628	164	275	33	6	272	66	-117	+4	-4	-46	+87	-7.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	603	123	23	4	22	39	215	3	12	4	204	256	365	621	161	272	33	6	272	66	-25	+1	-1	-10	+18	-1.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	22	A+	Florida Fire Frogs	—	88	80	26	5	1	1	8	17	0	3	1	325	386	450	836	125	403	19	9	374	144	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.7
2018	22	ROK	Danville Braves	—	138	116	43	3	6	1	19	25	1	1	1	371	463	526	989	155	457	18	14	431	188	+14	-0	—	—	+4	1.8
2019	23	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	78	68	7	1	0	2	8	25	0	0	0	103	195	206	401	103	119	32	10	188	2	-9	+0	—	—	+2	-0.7
2019	23	A+	Florida Fire Frogs	—	74	60	8	1	0	0	14	18	0	3	1	133	297	150	447	17	190	24	19	235	38	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2021	25	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	330	304	60	17	4	10	24	105	1	14	1	197	258	378	637	181	263	32	7	281	73	-10	+2	—	—	+9	0.2
2022	26	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	490	455	120	18	2	25	26	111	2	19	4	264	306	477	783	213	291	23	5	338	117	+10	+2	—	—	+14	2.6
2023	27	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	314	286	63	17	1	13	24	94	1	4	2	220	283	423	706	203	275	30	8	309	94	-2	+0	—	—	+9	0.7
2023	27	ROK	ACL Royals	—	25	17	7	2	0	4	6	3	2	0	0	412	600	1.235	1.835	824	300	12	24	698	392	+8	+0	—	—	+1	0.9
2023	27	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	55	47	10	5	1	3	6	16	0	0	0	213	302	553	855	340	233	29	11	352	128	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2024	28	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	411	374	113	27	6	19	31	85	4	2	3	302	361	559	920	257	347	21	8	398	163	+29	-1	—	—	+12	4.1
2025	29	MLB	Athletics	—	17	17	3	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	176	176	176	353		333	47	0	160	-20	-2	+0	-0	-9	+0	-1.1
2025	29	AAA	Oklahoma City Comets	—	466	413	105	23	6	15	51	130	0	7	3	254	336	448	784	194	333	28	11	346	123	+12	+0	—	—	+13	2.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	17	17	3	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	176	176	176	353		333	47	0	160	-20	-2	+0	-0	-9	+0	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
CJ Alexander (OGILVIE)	30	45	55	45	50	190/255/361	171	266	19	4	37%	8%	63	-1.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Baltazar Lopez 2014 · AAA	30	45	49→50	40→45	38	227/276/372	146	321	18	4	34%	6%	79	+0.3	222/276/340	118	332	13	6	35%	6%	70	-0.3	215/288/266	52	372	5	2	40%	8%	58	-0.2
✕Daniel Palka 2022 · MLB	30	40→44	53→55	50	47	215/284/382	167	268	21	7	28%	9%	85	+0.7	225/282/392	167	291	22	5	30%	7%	87	+0.8	217/273/380	163	279	23	2	31%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Simon Pond 2006 · MLB	29	43→42	51→55	47→45	41	224/278/385	162	297	20	8	31%	6%	84	+0.6	221/276/364	143	301	15	6	30%	7%	76	+0.1	212/268/350	139	286	13	3	30%	7%	69	-0.3
✕Clete Thomas 2014 · MLB	30	42→52	48→50	48→55	42	216/270/359	144	289	16	13	31%	7%	73	-0.1	224/287/342	118	297	11	14	27%	8%	76	+0.0	217/285/291	74	293	3	21	25%	8%	58	-0.4
✕Mike Costanzo 2014 · MLB	30	41→48	46→50	40	43	208/268/341	133	288	14	4	32%	8%	68	-0.5	207/263/334	127	314	14	7	36%	7%	63	-0.8	146/202/239	92	246	14	0	45%	6%	14	-1.0
✕Brett Carroll 2013 · MLB	30	42→45	48→55	47→50	43	215/278/354	140	275	15	11	28%	7%	76	+0.0	206/271/344	138	287	17	10	33%	7%	70	-0.3	181/260/337	157	237	23	11	34%	8%	60	-0.5
✕Brandon Allen 2016 · AAA	30	43→47	48→55	47→50	45	218/277/358	140	274	16	6	26%	7%	76	+0.0	205/267/322	117	261	12	6	25%	7%	62	-0.9	162/235/243	81	200	10	0	24%	8%	27	-1.5
✕Rhyne Hughes 2013 · MLB	29	43→53	49→55	46→45	41	215/274/369	154	305	16	7	34%	7%	77	+0.1	235/297/389	154	352	16	8	35%	7%	92	+1.2	243/307/396	153	400	14	2	39%	7%	95	+0.4
●Cory Aldridge 2009 · AAA	30	46→50	47→55	43→45	45	226/287/366	141	304	14	7	30%	8%	82	+0.5	237/285/404	167	314	20	4	30%	6%	91	+1.1	214/280/387	173	293	27	5	36%	8%	84	+0.3
✕Bryce Brentz 2019 · MLB	30	42→46	54→60	47→40	39	224/271/402	178	296	22	4	32%	6%	85	+0.7	212/278/386	174	320	21	5	38%	7%	84	+0.6	181/261/353	172	277	22	0	41%	8%	66	-0.4
✕Brad Nelson 2014 · AAA	31	43→48	50	45→50	46	224/283/378	154	269	19	4	25%	7%	84	+0.6	213/264/332	119	258	13	6	22%	6%	63	-0.9	185/232/266	81	219	9	0	20%	5%	32	-1.3
✕Chris Parmelee 2019 · AAA	31	40→50	49→55	44→45	46	208/275/352	144	273	17	6	30%	8%	73	-0.1	216/284/401	185	316	25	6	38%	8%	91	+1.1	187/265/386	199	258	31	0	39%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Jamie Romak 2017 · MLB	31	41→48	51→55	49→45	40	210/268/369	159	293	18	7	34%	7%	75	-0.0	238/290/430	192	314	24	11	31%	6%	100	+1.7	243/288/529	287	290	39	10	31%	5%	120	+0.5
✕Norel González 2023 · AAA	29	45	50	41→40	41	230/284/385	155	294	18	6	28%	6%	86	+0.8	219/280/352	133	293	15	6	29%	7%	76	+0.0	193/264/308	115	257	13	2	29%	8%	54	-0.7
✕Joe Borchard 2010 · MLB	31	40→46	50→55	45	40	209/259/361	152	272	18	6	30%	6%	69	-0.4	223/274/370	147	304	15	5	30%	6%	77	+0.1	227/280/377	150	311	14	2	30%	6%	80	+0.3
✕Brandon Snyder 2018 · MLB	31	44→53	52→55	45	39	226/282/391	164	298	21	7	31%	6%	87	+0.8	204/260/378	174	303	23	5	39%	6%	75	-0.0	179/243/353	174	266	25	2	42%	6%	58	-0.7
✕Ryan Mulhern 2011 · AAA	30	43→48	48→55	47→40	41	220/278/361	141	298	17	8	31%	7%	77	+0.1	253/305/461	208	310	28	7	27%	6%	115	+2.7	242/295/439	197	299	26	3	28%	5%	102	+0.8
✕Christian Bethancourt 2022 · AAA	30	47→52	48→55	49→50	39	236/275/374	137	298	16	8	26%	5%	79	+0.3	233/266/388	155	289	19	8	26%	4%	79	+0.3	226/257/383	157	275	20	7	26%	4%	72	-0.1
✕Clint Coulter 2023 · AAA	30	42	52→50	43→40	40	221/279/389	168	272	21	5	27%	5%	85	+0.7	222/289/359	137	266	14	9	22%	6%	82	+0.5	204/282/322	119	241	11	9	20%	6%	66	-0.3
✕Greg Bird 2022 · MLB	29	36→46	52→55	43→30	45	198/268/358	160	252	20	3	30%	8%	72	-0.2	204/268/341	137	272	16	7	30%	7%	68	-0.5	175/244/283	108	235	13	4	30%	8%	40	-1.0