CJ Alexander — OGILVIE

CJ Alexander1B Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 30 L/R 6'3" / 215 lbs AAA HR -6% Svc 1.000 · Ctrl thru 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION369 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA1

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP279

ISO161

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2025

CONTACT45

Whiff%

1023.6%

xAVG

100.128

POWER55

Avg EV

1055.6

Bat Spd

8474.9

EYE50

Chase%

1048.3%

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	22	A+	Florida Fire Frogs	—	88	80	26	5	1	1	8	17	0	3	1	325	386	450	836	125	403	19	9	374	139	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
2018	22	ROK	Danville Braves	—	138	116	43	3	6	1	19	25	1	1	1	371	463	526	989	155	457	18	14	431	178	+13	-0	—	—	+3	1.6
2019	23	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	78	68	7	1	0	2	8	25	0	0	0	103	195	206	401	103	119	32	10	188	13	-8	+0	—	—	+2	-0.6
2019	23	A+	Florida Fire Frogs	—	74	60	8	1	0	0	14	18	0	3	1	133	297	150	447	17	190	24	19	235	45	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2021	25	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	330	304	60	17	4	10	24	105	1	14	1	197	258	378	637	181	263	32	7	281	77	-9	+2	—	—	+7	0.0
2022	26	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	490	455	120	18	2	25	26	111	2	19	4	264	306	477	783	213	291	23	5	338	115	+9	+2	—	—	+11	2.2
2023	27	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	314	286	63	17	1	13	24	94	1	4	2	220	283	423	706	203	275	30	8	309	95	-2	+0	—	—	+7	0.5
2023	27	ROK	ACL Royals	—	25	17	7	2	0	4	6	3	2	0	0	412	600	1.235	1.835	824	300	12	24	698	359	+8	+0	—	—	+1	0.8
2023	27	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	55	47	10	5	1	3	6	16	0	0	0	213	302	553	855	340	233	29	11	352	124	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2024	28	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	411	374	113	27	6	19	31	85	4	2	3	302	361	559	920	257	347	21	8	398	156	+27	-1	—	—	+9	3.6
2025	29	MLB	Athletics	—	17	17	3	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	176	176	176	353		333	47	0	160	-6	-2	+0	-0	-9	+0	-1.1
2025	29	AAA	Oklahoma City Comets	—	466	413	105	23	6	15	51	130	0	7	3	254	336	448	784	194	333	28	11	346	120	+11	+0	—	—	+10	2.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	17	17	3	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	176	176	176	353		333	47	0	160	-6	-2	+0	-0	-9	+0	-1.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	22	A+ MLE	Florida Fire Frogs	—	88	82	23	4	1	1	6	25	0	3	1	280	330	390	720	110	381	28	7	302	91	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2018	22	ROK MLE	Danville Braves	—	138	123	33	2	4	1	12	35	1	1	1	268	338	374	712	106	359	25	9	315	99	-0	-0	—	—	+3	0.3
2019	23	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	—	78	71	6	1	0	2	6	31	0	0	0	85	156	183	339	99	106	40	8	147	-14	-11	+0	—	—	+2	-0.9
2019	23	A+ MLE	Florida Fire Frogs	—	74	65	7	1	0	0	9	25	0	3	1	108	216	123	339	15	173	34	12	175	5	-8	+0	—	—	+2	-0.7
2021	25	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	—	330	313	49	13	4	8	15	128	1	14	1	157	198	300	498	144	229	39	5	216	32	-27	+2	—	—	+7	-1.7
2022	26	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	490	464	102	14	2	21	17	137	2	19	4	220	251	394	645	175	255	28	3	277	74	-15	+2	—	—	+11	-0.3
2023	27	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	314	294	51	13	1	9	16	113	1	4	2	173	219	316	535	143	239	36	5	234	45	-21	+0	—	—	+7	-1.4
2023	27	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	—	25	19	6	2	0	3	4	4	2	0	0	316	480	895	1.375	579	206	16	16	532	246	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2024	28	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	411	383	87	18	4	14	23	107	4	2	3	227	278	405	683	178	278	26	6	295	86	-7	-1	—	—	+9	0.1
2025	29	MLB MLE	Athletics	—	17	17	3	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	176	176	176	353		333	47	0	156	-8	-2	+0	-0	-9	+0	-1.1
2025	29	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	—	466	431	85	17	4	12	33	165	0	7	3	197	254	339	593	142	285	35	7	258	61	-22	+0	—	—	+10	-1.2
2018	22	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	226	205	56	6	5	2	18	61	1	4	2	273	335	380	715	107	375	27	8	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	226	196	69	8	7	2	27	42	1	4	2	352	433	495	928	143	435	19	12	409	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	152	136	13	2	0	2	15	56	0	3	1	96	185	154	340	59	139	37	10	161	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	152	128	15	2	0	2	22	43	0	3	1	117	245	180	425	62	155	28	14	211	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	—	330	313	49	13	4	8	15	128	1	14	1	157	198	300	498	144	230	39	5	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA RAW	Mississippi Braves	—	330	304	60	17	4	10	24	105	1	14	1	197	258	378	637	181	263	32	7	281	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	490	464	102	14	2	21	17	137	2	19	4	220	251	394	645	175	259	28	3	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	490	455	120	18	2	25	26	111	2	19	4	264	306	477	783	213	291	23	5	338	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	394	363	67	17	1	15	23	137	3	4	2	185	239	361	600	176	241	35	6	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	394	350	80	24	2	20	36	113	3	4	2	229	306	480	786	251	270	29	9	339	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	411	383	87	18	4	14	23	107	4	2	3	227	278	405	683	178	278	26	6	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	Las Vegas Aviators	—	411	374	113	27	6	19	31	85	4	2	3	302	361	559	920	257	347	21	8	398	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	483	448	88	17	4	12	33	173	0	7	3	196	252	333	584	136	287	36	7	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	483	430	108	23	6	15	51	138	0	7	3	251	331	437	768	186	333	29	11	339	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	226	205	56	6	5	2	18	61	1	4	2	273	335	380	715	107	368	27	8	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	152	136	13	2	0	2	15	56	0	3	1	96	185	154	340	59	139	37	10	161	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	—	330	311	49	13	4	8	15	128	1	14	1	158	198	302	500	145	229	39	5	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	490	468	102	14	2	21	17	137	2	19	4	218	251	391	642	173	255	28	3	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	394	365	67	17	1	15	23	137	3	4	2	184	239	359	598	175	237	35	6	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	411	381	87	18	4	14	23	107	4	2	3	228	278	407	685	178	278	26	6	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	483	447	88	17	4	12	33	173	0	7	3	197	252	333	585	136	287	36	7	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	394	365	67	17	1	15	23	137	3	4	2	184	239	359	598	175	237	35	6	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	411	381	87	18	4	14	23	107	4	2	3	228	278	407	685	178	278	26	6	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	483	447	88	17	4	12	33	173	0	7	3	197	252	333	585	136	287	36	7	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	30	AAA MLE	HOU	—	369	339	62	15	1	15	28	142	1	2	1	183	247	366	613	183	257	38	8	265	65	-15	+0	+0	-7	+8	-1.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	AAA RAW	HOU	—	369	325	82	21	1	21	42	110	1	2	1	252	340	517	857	265	313	30	11	373	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	30	AAA MLE	HOU	10%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		277	33	11	278	75	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected rest
ROS	30	MLB CTX	HOU	10%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						279	0	0	276	75	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	30	MLB A+C	HOU	—	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0							0	0	276	66	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	30	AAA MLE	HOU	—	378	347	63	15	1	15	29	145	1	2	1	182	247	360	607	179	255	38	8	265	66	-15	+0	+0	-7	+8	-1.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	HOU	27%	365	334	67	15	2	12	26	126	2	2	1	201	262	365	628	165	275	35	7	279	75	-11	+0	-3	-7	+8	-1.2
2027	31	MLB CTX	HOU	27%	100	93	18	4	0	3	7	34	0	1	0	194	250	333	583	140	277	34	7	275	75	-3	+0	-1	-2	+2	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	118	111	21	4	0	3	7	42	0	1	0	189	237	306	544	117	273	36	6	259	64	-5	+0	-1	-10	+3	-1.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	611	116	22	0	17	39	231	0	6	0	190	238	309	548	119	273	36	6	259	64	-29	+1	-4	-57	+14	-7.6
Career	—	MLE		—	2860	2654	530	102	22	86	171	928	13	55	17	200	252	352	604	152	267	32	6	262	64	-13	+0	-3	-15	+8	-2.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	603	121	23	5	20	39	211	3	12	4	201	253	355	608	154	268	32	6	262	64	-22	+0	-4	-25	+14	-3.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
CJ Alexander (OGILVIE)	30	45	55	45	50	198/258/367	169	277	9	2	35%	7%	75	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Daniel Palka 2022 · MLB	30	41→43	50→55	50	48	212/284/365	153	266	18	7	28%	9%	83	+0.1	219/277/369	150	283	19	5	29%	7%	81	-0.1	209/266/354	145	267	20	2	29%	7%	69	-0.6
✕Simon Pond 2006 · MLB	29	44→43	50→55	47→45	41	223/278/374	151	293	18	8	30%	6%	82	+0.0	221/276/356	135	296	13	6	29%	7%	78	-0.3	213/269/344	131	284	12	3	28%	7%	72	-0.7
✕Baltazar Lopez 2014 · AAA	30	47	49→50	40→45	40	233/286/380	147	322	17	4	32%	6%	86	+0.3	224/281/343	119	332	13	6	34%	6%	76	-0.4	212/284/257	45	372	4	2	40%	8%	59	-0.3
✕Brett Carroll 2013 · MLB	30	42→45	45→55	47→50	44	212/276/337	125	273	13	11	27%	7%	74	-0.6	204/271/326	122	279	14	10	30%	7%	70	-0.9	176/257/306	130	226	18	11	30%	8%	57	-1.0
✕Brad Nelson 2013 · AAA	30	43→49	51→50	44→50	48	226/291/387	161	273	20	4	25%	8%	91	+0.6	216/272/347	131	263	16	4	24%	7%	74	-0.5	200/254/313	112	239	14	1	22%	6%	59	-1.0
✕Bryce Brentz 2019 · MLB	30	41→49	53→55	47→40	39	220/268/391	172	289	22	4	32%	6%	83	+0.1	205/272/366	161	311	20	5	38%	7%	79	-0.2	166/244/315	150	254	19	0	41%	8%	55	-1.2
✕Matt Clark 2017 · MLB	30	43→45	52→55	47→30	43	227/283/391	164	273	21	3	26%	6%	88	+0.5	231/287/400	169	291	21	4	27%	7%	92	+0.7	228/287/412	184	278	24	0	27%	7%	95	+0.6
✕Jeff Larish 2012 · MLB	29	43→44	52→55	43→45	44	221/289/385	164	295	20	4	31%	8%	89	+0.5	199/272/325	126	298	12	6	35%	9%	70	-0.9	156/239/247	91	251	4	0	36%	10%	37	-1.2
✕Andy Wilkins 2019 · MLB	30	34→44	52→50	51→45	43	190/257/352	162	246	21	6	32%	8%	70	-0.8	193/263/333	140	303	17	7	39%	8%	68	-1.0	132/217/241	109	224	16	0	46%	9%	30	-1.3
✕Kyle Jensen 2018 · MLB	30	40→50	53→55	45→40	36	210/261/378	168	300	21	4	37%	6%	78	-0.3	202/252/324	122	314	14	7	38%	6%	61	-1.5	153/195/240	87	243	11	0	41%	5%	18	-1.6
✕Greg Bird 2022 · MLB	29	39→48	51→55	43→30	46	206/278/365	159	261	20	3	29%	8%	81	-0.1	208/276/339	131	280	15	7	30%	8%	74	-0.5	175/249/272	97	242	11	4	30%	8%	47	-1.0
✕Clint Coulter 2023 · AAA	30	43	50	43→40	41	222/284/377	155	275	18	5	26%	6%	86	+0.3	222/291/357	135	271	14	9	23%	6%	84	+0.2	199/277/318	119	239	11	9	21%	6%	66	-0.4
●Mike Ford 2022 · MLB	30	35→45	53→55	46→30	48	195/273/359	164	232	22	3	27%	9%	78	-0.3	217/301/379	162	264	21	4	26%	10%	93	+0.8	221/309/392	172	259	23	2	24%	10%	97	+0.5
✕Clete Thomas 2014 · MLB	30	42→52	46→45	48→55	42	211/266/339	128	287	13	13	31%	7%	70	-0.9	221/286/333	112	298	10	14	27%	8%	76	-0.4	213/279/283	70	293	2	21	26%	8%	59	-0.6
✕Mike Costanzo 2014 · MLB	30	42→47	45	40	44	210/272/337	127	290	12	4	31%	8%	72	-0.7	208/267/329	121	308	13	7	34%	7%	68	-1.0	152/208/235	82	246	11	0	41%	6%	25	-1.0
✕Christian Bethancourt 2023 · MLB	31	47→51	50→55	49→50	40	243/281/397	153	294	18	8	24%	5%	88	+0.5	217/252/366	149	272	19	7	27%	4%	71	-0.8	191/222/330	139	238	18	5	29%	4%	50	-1.0
✕Graham Koonce 2006 · AAA	31	43→40	51→55	43→30	45	223/287/378	155	275	19	3	27%	7%	87	+0.4	210/285/377	167	266	21	4	29%	9%	86	+0.3	188/272/360	172	231	22	2	29%	9%	77	-0.2
✕Joe Borchard 2010 · MLB	31	40→44	49→50	45	40	209/260/359	150	272	17	6	30%	6%	72	-0.7	220/272/368	148	295	16	5	30%	6%	79	-0.2	219/272/370	151	292	15	2	30%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Brandon Allen 2016 · AAA	30	43→47	48→55	47→50	47	220/282/363	142	273	16	6	25%	8%	81	-0.1	204/268/317	113	260	12	6	25%	8%	65	-1.2	153/226/221	68	192	7	0	24%	8%	28	-1.8
✕Rhyne Hughes 2013 · MLB	29	43→53	48→50	46→45	42	217/275/363	145	305	15	7	33%	7%	79	-0.2	233/296/378	145	345	15	8	34%	8%	90	+0.6	233/299/374	141	378	12	2	38%	7%	88	+0.1