Edwin Rios — OGILVIE

Edwin Rios1B Louisville Bats

Age 32 L/R 6'3" / 220 lbs AAA HR +6% Svc 7.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 350 proj PA

wRC+†110

AVG/OBP/SLG.231 / .302 / .442

PA350

HR17

K%34

BB%8

ISO213

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2024

CONTACT40

Whiff%

1017.4%

xwOBA

400.297

POWER60

Barrel%

7211.5

Avg EV

4288.5

Bat Spd

6272.6

EYE55

Chase%

3135.5%

SPEED45

Sprint

1025.3

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 7.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$2M
Totals		$2M		$0.1M	-$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	21	ROK	Ogden Raptors	—	82	78	12	4	0	2	4	43	0	0	1	154	195	282	477	128	303	52	5	198	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	ROK	Ogden Raptors	—	82	75	19	7	0	3	7	30	0	0	1	253	317	467	784	213	381	37	9	345	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+	3 teams	—	451	427	100	21	1	22	15	150	4	3	1	234	267	443	709	208	300	33	3	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+	3 teams	—	451	418	126	26	2	27	24	110	4	3	1	301	345	567	912	266	346	24	5	392	158	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA	2 teams	—	522	492	118	26	0	15	18	152	7	1	2	240	277	384	661	144	312	29	3	288	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA	2 teams	—	522	475	147	34	0	24	35	111	7	1	2	309	366	533	898	223	357	21	7	390	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	341	318	72	17	0	6	14	151	4	0	1	226	268	336	604	110	398	44	4	270	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	341	309	94	25	0	10	23	110	4	0	1	304	360	482	842	178	433	32	7	367	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA	2 teams	—	500	450	85	18	2	23	36	213	8	2	2	189	261	391	652	202	282	43	7	283	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA	2 teams	—	500	440	119	25	3	35	46	174	8	2	2	270	350	580	930	309	354	35	9	397	162	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	83	76	19	6	0	8	4	18	2	0	0	250	305	645	950	395	216	22	5	412	173	+7	+0	-0	+0	+2	1.0
2020	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	83	76	19	6	0	8	4	18	2	0	0	250	305	645	950	395	216	22	5	399	164	+6	+0	-0	+0	+2	0.9
2021	27	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	60	51	4	0	0	1	7	18	2	0	0	78	217	137	354	59	94	30	12	187	1	-7	+0	+1	-1	+2	-0.6
2021	27	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	60	51	4	0	0	1	7	18	2	0	0	78	217	137	354	59	94	30	12	186	0	-7	+0	+1	-1	+2	-0.6
2022	28	AAA	2 teams	—	310	283	62	16	0	14	17	120	6	0	2	219	278	424	702	205	314	39	5	301	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA	2 teams	—	310	275	70	18	0	16	25	102	6	0	2	255	330	495	825	240	335	33	8	358	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA	3 teams	—	288	254	50	13	0	9	25	108	6	0	0	197	284	354	639	157	293	38	9	278	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA	3 teams	—	288	247	59	16	0	7	32	93	6	0	0	239	340	389	729	150	347	32	11	328	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	421	381	89	25	0	15	35	141	3	2	0	234	303	417	720	184	326	33	8	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	421	360	103	28	0	22	56	117	3	2	0	286	387	547	934	261	363	28	13	406	169	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA	2 teams	—	567	511	101	19	2	26	45	236	5	0	1	198	269	395	664	198	294	42	8	289	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA	2 teams	—	567	489	118	23	2	28	67	187	5	0	1	241	339	468	807	227	321	33	12	353	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	32	MLB	CIN	—	350	315	74	15	1	17	29	118	3	2	1	235	305	451	756	216	310	34	8	329	110	+4	+0	+0	-6	+10	0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	33	MLB	CIN	33%	509	457	104	20	2	23	42	174	5	2	1	228	300	431	731	204	304	34	8	321	104	+2	+0	-4	-9	+14	0.4
2028	34	MLB	CIN	28%	430	388	84	16	1	19	35	150	4	1	0	216	288	410	698	193	296	35	8	311	96	-2	+0	-4	-8	+12	-0.2
2029	35	MLB	CIN	24%	363	328	68	12	1	15	29	129	3	1	0	207	278	387	665	180	287	36	8	300	87	-5	+0	-5	-6	+10	-0.6
2027	33	MLB	CIN	33%	166	149	35	7	1	8	14	57	2	1	0	235	309	456	765	221	308	34	8	318	102	+0	+0	-1	-3	+5	0.1
2028	34	MLB	CIN	28%	121	109	25	5	0	6	10	42	1	0	0	229	300	440	740	211	300	35	8	308	94	-1	+0	-1	-2	+3	-0.1
2029	35	MLB	CIN	24%	86	78	17	3	0	4	7	31	1	0	0	218	291	410	701	192	291	36	8	297	85	-1	+0	-1	-2	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	698	624	136	25	2	39	61	239	10	1	1	218	298	452	750	234	278	34	9	320	103	+3	-0	-6	-14	+20	0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	126	23	2	36	57	223	9	1	1	217	297	449	746	232	277	34	9	320	103	+2	-0	-5	-13	+18	0.2
Career	—			—	5277	4809	1042	228	10	215	355	1921	62	14	12	217	279	402	682	186	304	36	7	298	86	-82	-2	-15	-80	+150	-2.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	128	28	1	26	44	237	8	2	1	216	280	399	679	182	304	36	7	298	86	-10	+0	-2	-10	+18	-0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	21	ROK	Ogden Raptors	—	82	75	19	7	0	3	7	30	0	0	1	253	317	467	784	213	381	37	9	345	122	+2	-0	—	—	+2	0.4
2016	22	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	135	122	31	7	0	5	8	31	2	0	0	254	311	434	745	180	292	23	6	323	106	+1	+0	—	—	+4	0.5
2016	22	A+	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	188	177	65	11	1	16	8	35	1	0	0	367	398	712	1.110	345	383	19	4	473	220	+25	+0	—	—	+5	3.1
2016	22	A	Great Lakes Loons	—	128	119	30	8	1	6	8	44	1	3	1	252	305	487	792	235	348	34	6	346	123	+3	+0	—	—	+4	0.7
2017	23	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	190	169	50	13	0	9	18	42	2	0	1	296	370	533	903	237	345	22	9	394	159	+13	-0	—	—	+5	1.8
2017	23	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	332	306	97	21	0	15	17	69	5	1	1	317	363	533	895	216	363	21	5	388	155	+21	-0	—	—	+9	3.1
2018	24	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	341	309	94	25	0	10	23	110	4	0	1	304	360	482	842	178	433	32	7	367	139	+15	-0	—	—	+10	2.5
2019	25	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	56	47	13	2	1	4	9	21	0	0	0	277	393	617	1.010	340	409	38	16	432	189	+6	+0	-1	-9	+2	-0.3
2019	25	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	444	393	106	23	2	31	37	153	8	2	2	270	345	575	920	305	349	34	8	392	158	+29	-0	—	—	+13	4.2
2020	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	83	76	19	6	0	8	4	18	2	0	0	250	305	645	950	395	216	22	5	399	164	+6	+0	-0	+0	+2	0.9
2021	27	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	60	51	4	0	0	1	7	18	2	0	0	78	217	137	354	59	94	30	12	186	0	-7	+0	+1	-1	+2	-0.6
2022	28	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	92	86	21	1	0	7	5	36	1	0	1	244	293	500	793	256	326	39	5	346	123	+2	-0	-1	+1	+3	0.4
2022	28	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	218	189	49	17	0	9	20	66	5	0	1	259	346	492	838	233	339	30	9	362	135	+9	-0	—	—	+6	1.5
2023	29	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	34	28	2	1	0	1	5	16	1	0	0	71	235	214	450	143	91	47	15	223	29	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
2023	29	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	176	152	40	11	0	6	20	54	4	0	0	263	364	454	818	191	370	31	11	365	138	+8	+0	—	—	+5	1.3
2023	29	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	—	78	67	17	4	0	0	7	23	1	0	0	254	333	313	647	60	362	29	9	289	79	-2	+0	—	—	+2	0.0
2024	30	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	421	360	103	28	0	22	56	117	3	2	0	286	387	547	934	261	363	28	13	406	169	+33	+0	—	—	+12	4.6
2025	31	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	546	472	116	23	2	26	63	180	5	0	1	246	341	468	809	222	331	33	12	354	129	+18	-0	—	—	+15	3.4
2025	31	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	—	21	17	2	0	0	2	4	7	0	0	0	118	286	471	756	353		33	19	331	112	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	325	288	59	10	1	21	30	109	6	0	1	205	293	465	758	260	239	34	9	332	112	+5	-0	-2	-8	+9	0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Laynce Nixlast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,038 PA	9	2,038	69	9	243	289	422	-13	+8	4.3	4.9
#1Laynce Nixlast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,038 PA	/162	664	22	3	243	289	422	-4.1	+2.5	1.4	pk7: 5
#2Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	8	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
	/162	664	23	9	238	296	413	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#4John Mabrylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,560 PA	7	1,560	54	2	243	309	416	-15	-16	1.6	1.6
#4John Mabrylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,560 PA	/162	664	23	1	243	309	416	-6.5	-6.7	0.7	pk7: 2
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	699	38	1	222	294	454	-12	-2	1.1	1.1
	/162	664	36	1	222	294	454	-11.9	-1.8	1.0	pk7: 1
#6Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	7	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
	/162	664	24	2	242	294	417	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Edwin Rios (OGILVIE)	32	40	60	45	55	231/302/442	211	310	17	2	34%	8%	110	+1.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Pedro Álvarez 2018 · MLB	31	42→46	60	48→45	44	234/288/442	208	274	29	3	27%	7%	103	+1.9	233/287/417	184	286	26	5	28%	7%	95	+1.4	224/285/402	178	267	29	0	28%	8%	89	+0.5
✕Patrick Wisdom 2023 · MLB	31	39→45	63→70	45→50	45	218/302/450	232	292	32	9	36%	9%	111	+2.5	216/296/455	239	283	33	10	35%	9%	110	+2.4	202/282/485	283	230	42	9	34%	9%	109	+1.0
✕Matt Davidson 2022 · MLB	31	43→44	63→60	46→30	40	238/295/466	228	299	32	3	32%	6%	112	+2.6	237/310/444	207	311	30	5	33%	7%	113	+2.6	215/304/418	204	277	32	0	34%	8%	100	+1.2
✕Matt Adams 2021 · MLB	32	42→52	62→65	46→40	42	234/290/455	221	284	32	3	30%	7%	108	+2.3	218/274/367	149	288	19	6	30%	7%	77	+0.1	182/222/302	120	253	18	0	35%	5%	34	-1.9
✕Mike Hessman 2010 · MLB	32	35→36	59→65	42→45	41	202/278/412	210	272	28	5	36%	8%	92	+1.2	200/265/390	190	258	25	4	33%	7%	80	+0.4	198/259/397	199	237	27	3	30%	7%	78	+0.2
✕Trayce Thompson 2023 · MLB	32	43→47	64→65	48→50	45	234/311/475	241	312	32	8	35%	9%	121	+3.2	207/282/391	184	296	24	10	36%	9%	87	+0.8	177/251/330	153	254	20	11	37%	8%	56	-0.7
●Brandon Moss 2016 · MLB	32	45→50	58→65	43→45	51	239/323/444	205	292	26	2	27%	10%	118	+3.0	229/303/456	227	282	31	4	30%	9%	113	+2.6	219/294/466	247	259	36	2	31%	9%	108	+1.7
✕Kyle Garlick 2023 · MLB	31	43→50	59→60	48→40	40	236/292/440	204	298	29	5	31%	6%	105	+2.1	190/259/337	147	277	19	4	37%	7%	63	-0.8	161/235/289	128	238	17	2	39%	8%	40	-2.0
✕Rick Ankiel 2010 · MLB	31	45→48	57→65	44→50	46	242/300/439	197	279	25	6	24%	7%	107	+2.2	235/296/392	157	303	17	9	27%	8%	92	+1.2	230/292/379	149	304	15	9	28%	8%	82	+0.2
✕Matt Clark 2019 · AAA	32	45→49	54→60	44→30	42	236/287/415	179	296	23	5	29%	6%	95	+1.4	240/299/439	199	287	25	6	25%	7%	107	+2.2	234/300/461	228	264	30	0	24%	8%	115	+1.5
✕Chris Davis 2018 · MLB	32	40→50	61→70	41→40	52	220/320/437	217	290	31	2	34%	12%	115	+2.8	186/271/332	146	270	20	3	37%	10%	68	-0.5	165/251/289	125	241	18	1	38%	9%	45	-1.5
✕Garrett Jones 2013 · MLB	32	49→53	58→60	47→50	49	259/318/468	208	289	25	6	20%	8%	121	+3.2	248/306/435	187	290	21	3	22%	8%	108	+2.3	240/299/413	173	284	19	1	22%	7%	96	+0.9
✕Mitch Jones 2009 · AAA	31	39→40	59→65	50→45	41	217/281/428	211	280	28	8	33%	7%	97	+1.5	215/263/417	202	268	26	9	30%	5%	86	+0.8	201/248/402	200	244	27	8	30%	5%	74	-0.1
✕Colby Rasmus 2018 · MLB	31	42→52	58→60	48→50	46	228/296/426	198	290	27	6	31%	9%	102	+1.9	227/289/393	166	304	20	8	31%	8%	90	+1.0	168/227/276	108	239	12	0	34%	6%	32	-0.5
●Chris Carter 2019 · MLB	32	36→46	65	48→45	44	211/291/453	242	270	34	4	36%	9%	108	+2.3	231/336/503	272	301	38	5	35%	13%	138	+4.4	217/348/525	308	261	44	1	35%	15%	147	+4.5
✕Dallas McPherson 2011 · MLB	31	42→44	61→65	48→50	39	229/286/449	220	311	30	7	36%	7%	104	+2.0	228/272/391	163	323	21	5	35%	6%	82	+0.5	220/265/370	150	313	20	3	35%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Daniel Palka 2023 · AAA	31	44	55	44→50	44	233/292/412	179	293	24	4	29%	8%	96	+1.5	222/276/377	155	292	20	6	30%	7%	81	+0.4	199/256/342	143	257	19	4	30%	7%	59	-0.8
✕Patrick Kivlehan 2021 · AAA	31	41→50	57→60	44→50	40	224/284/424	200	291	26	5	32%	6%	97	+1.5	213/262/370	157	294	20	8	34%	6%	72	-0.2	185/231/326	141	255	20	6	36%	5%	46	-1.2
✕Mark Trumbo 2018 · MLB	32	44→52	58→65	48→45	46	242/297/438	196	278	28	2	25%	7%	105	+2.1	239/295/423	184	284	25	4	25%	7%	101	+1.8	250/304/427	177	293	27	0	24%	7%	104	+1.2
✕George Kottaras 2015 · MLB	32	41→51	55	48→30	53	212/315/393	181	296	24	5	35%	13%	102	+1.8	214/294/359	145	312	19	5	35%	10%	83	+0.6	189/277/310	120	272	17	0	35%	11%	61	-0.2