Edwin Rios

1B Louisville Bats

Age 33 L/R 6'3" / 220 lbs AAA HR +16%BB +6% Svc 8.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	29	AAA/INTL2 orgs	254	.260/.355/.411	6	0	76	—	.201/.278/.327
2023	29	MLBCHC	34	.071/.235/.214	1	0	38	-0.1
2024	30	AAACIN	421	.286/.387/.547	22	2	87	—	.220/.291/.383
2025	31	AAA/INTL2 orgs	567	.241/.339/.468	28	0	67	—	.188/.257/.348
2026	32	No MLB games played
2027PROJ10% MLB	33	MLBCIN	24	.239/.307/.444	1	0	105	0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	34	MLBCIN	19	.229/.296/.422	1	0	96	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.1 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service8.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$2M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 AAA

Max EV86

BB%60

Chase%41

Speed25

Z-Con%19

K%12

CompsYadiel Hernandez (age 33) · Seth Brown (age 32) · Mike Ford (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†105

AVG/OBP/SLG.239 / .307 / .444

PA24

HR1

K%33

BB%8

BABIP311

ISO182

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2024

CONTACT40

xAVG

100.204

POWER60

Barrel%

7211.5

Avg EV

4288.5

Bat Spd

6272.6

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

1025.3

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 8.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$2M
Totals		$2M		$0.1M	-$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2015	21	ROK	Ogden Raptors	—	82	75	19	7	0	3	7	30	0	0	1	253	317	467	784	213	381	37	9	345	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	135	122	31	7	0	5	8	31	2	0	0	254	311	434	745	180	292	23	6	323	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	188	177	65	11	1	16	8	35	1	0	0	367	398	712	1.110	345	383	19	4	473	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A	Great Lakes Loons	—	128	119	30	8	1	6	8	44	1	3	1	252	305	487	792	235	348	34	6	346	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	190	169	50	13	0	9	18	42	2	0	1	296	370	533	903	237	345	22	9	394	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	332	306	97	21	0	15	17	69	5	1	1	317	363	533	895	216	363	21	5	388	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	341	309	94	25	0	10	23	110	4	0	1	304	360	482	842	178	433	32	7	367	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	56	47	13	2	1	4	9	21	0	0	0	277	393	617	1.010	340	409	38	16	432	184	+6	+0	-1	-9	+1	-0.3
2019	25	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	444	393	106	23	2	31	37	153	8	2	2	270	345	575	920	305	349	34	8	392	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	83	76	19	6	0	8	4	18	2	0	0	250	305	645	950	395	216	22	5	399	156	+6	+0	-0	+0	+2	0.8
2021	27	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	60	51	4	0	0	1	7	18	2	0	0	78	217	137	354	59	94	30	12	186	14	-6	+0	+1	-1	+1	-0.6
2022	28	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	92	86	21	1	0	7	5	36	1	0	1	244	293	500	793	256	326	39	5	346	113	+1	-0	-1	+1	+2	0.3
2022	28	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	218	189	49	17	0	9	20	66	5	0	1	259	346	492	838	233	339	30	9	362	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	34	28	2	1	0	1	5	16	1	0	0	71	235	214	450	143	91	47	15	223	38	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
2023	29	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	176	152	40	11	0	6	20	54	4	0	0	263	364	454	818	191	370	31	11	365	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	—	78	67	17	4	0	0	7	23	1	0	0	254	333	313	647	60	362	29	9	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	421	360	103	28	0	22	56	117	3	2	0	286	387	547	934	261	363	28	13	406	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	546	472	116	23	2	26	63	180	5	0	1	246	341	468	809	222	331	33	12	354	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	—	21	17	2	0	0	2	4	7	0	0	0	118	286	471	756	353		33	19	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	325	288	59	10	1	21	30	109	6	0	1	205	293	465	758	260	239	34	9	332	111	+4	-0	-2	-8	+7	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2015	21	ROK MLE	Ogden Raptors	—	82	78	12	4	0	2	4	43	0	0	1	154	195	282	477	128	286	52	5	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	135	125	27	6	0	4	5	38	2	0	0	216	258	360	618	144	264	28	4	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+ MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	188	180	53	9	1	14	5	48	1	0	0	294	317	589	906	294	319	26	3	378	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A MLE	Great Lakes Loons	—	128	121	21	5	1	4	6	60	1	3	1	174	219	331	549	157	299	47	5	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	190	175	42	10	0	7	12	54	2	0	1	240	296	417	713	177	297	28	6	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	332	315	81	17	0	9	8	88	5	1	1	257	287	397	683	140	319	27	2	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	341	317	78	19	0	7	15	146	4	0	1	246	289	372	661	126	410	43	4	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	56	47	13	2	1	4	9	21	0	0	0	277	393	617	1.010	340	409	38	16	440	184	+6	+0	-1	-9	+1	-0.3
2019	25	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	444	402	76	16	1	21	28	194	8	2	2	189	256	391	646	201	276	44	6	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	83	76	19	6	0	8	4	18	2	0	0	250	305	645	950	395	216	22	5	398	156	+6	+0	-0	+0	+2	0.8
2021	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	60	51	4	0	0	1	7	18	2	0	0	78	217	137	354	59	94	30	12	188	14	-6	+0	+1	-1	+1	-0.6
2022	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	92	87	21	1	0	7	4	36	1	0	1	241	283	494	777	253	326	39	4	335	113	+1	-0	-1	+1	+2	0.3
2022	28	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	218	196	42	15	0	6	13	78	5	0	1	214	280	383	663	168	297	36	6	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	34	28	2	1	0	1	5	16	1	0	0	71	235	214	450	143	91	47	15	225	38	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
2023	29	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	176	159	32	8	0	4	13	64	4	0	0	201	278	327	605	126	314	36	7	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	421	381	84	23	0	13	35	141	3	2	0	220	291	383	674	163	306	33	8	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	546	494	93	18	2	19	41	222	5	0	1	188	257	348	606	160	279	41	8	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	ROK MLE	Ogden Raptors	—	82	78	12	4	0	2	4	43	0	0	1	154	195	282	477	128	303	52	5	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	ROK RAW	Ogden Raptors	—	82	75	19	7	0	3	7	30	0	0	1	253	317	467	784	213	381	37	9	345	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	451	426	101	20	1	22	16	146	4	3	1	237	271	444	715	207	300	32	4	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	451	418	126	26	2	27	24	110	4	3	1	301	345	567	912	266	346	24	5	392	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	522	491	123	27	0	16	19	142	7	1	2	251	288	403	691	153	317	27	4	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	522	475	147	34	0	24	35	111	7	1	2	309	366	533	898	223	357	21	7	390	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	341	317	78	19	0	7	15	146	4	0	1	246	289	372	661	126	420	43	4	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	341	309	94	25	0	10	23	110	4	0	1	304	360	482	842	178	433	32	7	367	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	500	449	90	18	3	25	37	215	8	2	2	200	273	421	694	220	302	43	7	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	500	440	119	25	3	35	46	174	8	2	2	270	350	580	930	309	354	35	9	397	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	83	76	19	6	0	8	4	18	2	0	0	250	305	645	950	395	216	22	5	398	156	+6	+0	-0	+0	+2	0.8
2020	26	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	83	76	19	6	0	8	4	18	2	0	0	250	305	645	950	395	216	22	5	399	156	+6	+0	-0	+0	+2	0.8
2021	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	60	51	4	0	0	1	7	18	2	0	0	78	217	137	354	59	94	30	12	188	14	-6	+0	+1	-1	+1	-0.6
2021	27	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	60	51	4	0	0	1	7	18	2	0	0	78	217	137	354	59	94	30	12	186	14	-6	+0	+1	-1	+1	-0.6
2022	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	310	283	63	16	0	13	17	114	6	0	2	223	281	417	698	194	312	37	5	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	310	275	70	18	0	16	25	102	6	0	2	255	330	495	825	240	335	33	8	358	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	288	254	48	13	0	7	25	109	6	0	0	189	277	323	600	134	291	38	9	268	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	288	247	59	16	0	7	32	93	6	0	0	239	340	389	729	150	347	32	11	328	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	421	381	84	23	0	13	35	141	3	2	0	220	291	383	674	163	310	33	8	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	—	421	360	103	28	0	22	56	117	3	2	0	286	387	547	934	261	363	28	13	406	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	567	513	96	19	2	19	43	230	5	0	1	187	257	343	600	156	285	41	8	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	567	489	118	23	2	28	67	187	5	0	1	241	339	468	807	227	321	33	12	353	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	ROK MLE	Ogden Raptors	—	82	78	12	4	0	2	4	43	0	0	1	154	195	282	477	128	286	52	5	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	451	428	101	20	1	22	16	146	4	3	1	236	271	442	713	206	297	32	4	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	522	491	123	27	0	16	19	142	7	1	2	251	288	403	691	153	311	27	4	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	341	319	78	19	0	7	15	146	4	0	1	245	289	370	659	125	410	43	4	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	500	451	90	18	3	25	37	215	8	2	2	200	273	419	692	220	291	43	7	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	83	77	19	6	0	8	4	18	2	0	0	247	305	636	941	390	216	22	5	398	156	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	60	51	4	0	0	1	7	18	2	0	0	78	217	137	354	59	94	30	12	188	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	310	284	63	16	0	13	17	114	6	0	2	222	281	415	697	194	305	37	5	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	288	255	48	13	0	7	25	109	6	0	0	188	277	322	599	133	278	38	9	268	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	421	380	84	23	0	13	35	141	3	2	0	221	291	384	675	163	306	33	8	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	567	514	96	19	2	19	43	230	5	0	1	187	257	342	599	156	279	41	8	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	30	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	421	380	84	23	0	13	35	141	3	2	0	221	291	384	675	163	306	33	8	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	567	514	96	19	2	19	43	230	5	0	1	187	257	342	599	156	279	41	8	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	33	MLB MLE	CIN	10%	486	440	103	20	2	20	39	155	4	4	1	235	304	430	734	195	309	32	8	323	105	+3	+0	+0	-9	+11	0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	33	MLB CTX	CIN	10%	24	22	5	1	0	1	2	8	0	0	0	239	307	444	751	205	311	33	8	329	105	+0	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	CIN	6%	346	313	70	13	1	14	27	113	3	0	1	226	293	409	702	183	300	33	8	310	96	-2	-0	-5	-6	+7	-0.6
2028	34	MLB CTX	CIN	6%	19	18	4	1	0	1	1	6	0	0	0	229	296	422	718	193	302	32	5	316	96	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	344	306	63	11	1	22	31	115	6	0	1	206	292	464	756	258	241	33	9	331	84	+4	-0	-2	-8	+7	0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	120	21	2	42	59	217	11	0	2	208	293	469	762	261	243	33	9	331	84	+8	-1	-4	-15	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	4209	3847	839	188	8	157	268	1511	52	10	12	218	278	394	672	175	307	36	6	293	84	+4	-1	-7	-18	+20	-0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	594	129	29	1	24	41	233	8	2	2	217	276	391	667	173	306	36	6	293	84	+3	-1	-5	-13	+14	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAALouisville Bats · 546 PAwOBA .348 → .264 (−85)K% 33.0% → 40.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.97%	÷0.975	×1.200	—	—	40.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.54%	÷1.002	×0.690	—	×0.962	7.64%
HBP% /PA	0.92%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.83%
Singles /BIP	22.26%	÷1.049	×0.930	×1.023	×0.962	19.42%
Doubles /BIP	7.88%	÷0.992	×0.830	×1.023	×0.962	6.48%
Triples /BIP	0.68%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.023	×0.962	0.73%
Home runs /BIP	8.90%	÷0.901	×0.700	—	×0.962	6.65%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.

Result: wOBA .348 → .264; ISO .222 → .164; BABIP .331 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALouisville Bats · 421 PAwOBA .395 → .297 (−98)K% 27.8% → 33.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.79%	÷0.999	×1.200	—	—	33.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.59%	÷1.032	×0.690	—	×0.972	8.18%
HBP% /PA	0.71%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.65%
Singles /BIP	21.81%	÷0.995	×0.930	×0.990	×0.972	19.62%
Doubles /BIP	11.52%	÷0.964	×0.830	×0.990	×0.972	9.55%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.990	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.05%	÷1.111	×0.700	—	×0.972	5.55%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 99, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .395 → .297; ISO .261 → .177; BABIP .363 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAIowa Cubs · 176 PAwOBA .356 → .276 (−80)K% 30.7% → 36.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.68%	÷1.019	×1.200	—	—	36.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.36%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×0.982	7.59%
HBP% /PA	2.27%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	2.10%
Singles /BIP	23.47%	÷1.025	×0.930	×1.014	×0.982	21.22%
Doubles /BIP	11.22%	÷1.049	×0.830	×1.014	×0.982	8.85%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.916	×0.970	×1.014	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.12%	÷0.965	×0.700	—	×0.982	4.36%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 105, 2B 110, 3B 83, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .356 → .276; ISO .191 → .138; BABIP .370 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 218 PAwOBA .359 → .287 (−73)K% 30.3% → 36.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.28%	÷1.009	×1.200	—	—	36.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.17%	÷1.073	×0.690	—	×0.992	5.85%
HBP% /PA	2.29%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	2.14%
Singles /BIP	18.70%	÷1.027	×0.930	×1.016	×0.992	17.06%
Doubles /BIP	13.82%	÷0.958	×0.830	×1.016	×0.992	12.07%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.955	×0.970	×1.016	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.32%	÷0.997	×0.700	—	×0.992	5.10%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 105, 2B 92, 3B 91, K 102, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .359 → .287; ISO .233 → .177; BABIP .339 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 444 PAwOBA .386 → .277 (−109)K% 34.5% → 43.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	34.46%	÷1.014	×1.290	—	—	43.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.33%	÷0.993	×0.710	—	×1.033	6.15%
HBP% /PA	1.80%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	1.82%
Singles /BIP	20.83%	÷1.048	×0.900	×0.950	×1.033	17.57%
Doubles /BIP	9.58%	÷1.012	×0.810	×0.950	×1.033	7.53%
Triples /BIP	0.83%	÷1.045	×0.810	×0.950	×1.033	0.63%
Home runs /BIP	12.92%	÷1.073	×0.780	—	×1.033	9.70%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 110, 2B 102, 3B 109, K 103, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .386 → .277; ISO .305 → .206; BABIP .349 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 341 PAwOBA .360 → .291 (−69)K% 32.3% → 42.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.26%	÷0.970	×1.290	—	—	42.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.87%	÷1.021	×0.710	—	×1.048	4.27%
HBP% /PA	1.17%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	1.20%
Singles /BIP	29.65%	÷0.992	×0.900	×1.050	×1.048	29.59%
Doubles /BIP	12.56%	÷1.029	×0.810	×1.050	×1.048	10.88%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.020	×0.810	×1.050	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.03%	÷1.020	×0.780	—	×1.048	4.03%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 98, 2B 106, 3B 104, K 94, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .360 → .291; ISO .178 → .131; BABIP .433 → .410. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AATulsa Drillers · 332 PAwOBA .376 → .301 (−75)K% 20.8% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.78%	÷0.955	×1.220	—	—	26.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.31%	÷1.058	×0.700	—	×1.027	2.25%
HBP% /PA	1.51%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	1.35%
Singles /BIP	25.74%	÷1.005	×0.920	×0.977	×1.027	23.65%
Doubles /BIP	8.86%	÷1.000	×0.840	×0.977	×1.027	7.47%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.940	×0.977	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.33%	÷1.295	×0.800	—	×1.027	4.02%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 159, 1B 101, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 91, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .376 → .301; ISO .216 → .148; BABIP .363 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 190 PAwOBA .382 → .309 (−73)K% 22.1% → 28.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.11%	÷1.000	×1.290	—	—	28.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.42%	÷1.017	×0.710	—	×1.050	6.17%
HBP% /PA	1.05%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	1.08%
Singles /BIP	22.05%	÷0.978	×0.900	×0.950	×1.050	20.25%
Doubles /BIP	10.24%	÷1.038	×0.810	×0.950	×1.050	7.97%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.950	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.09%	÷0.989	×0.780	—	×1.050	5.87%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 96, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .382 → .309; ISO .237 → .185; BABIP .345 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Eduardo Perez'93-'06 * career totals — 10 seasons, 2,039 PA	3.1	2,039	79	19	237*	314*	423*	-27	+7	4.2	4.4
/162	664	26	6	-8.7	+2.2	1.4	pk7: 5
#2Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Carmelo Castillo'82-'91 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,640 PA	2.5	1,640	55	15	249*	298*	438*	-24	+5	1.8	2.6
/162	664	22	6	-9.7	+1.9	0.7	pk7: 3
#4John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	0.5	334	22	0	223	299	487	-6	-2	1.0	1.0
/162	664	43	0	-11.9	-3.1	1.9	pk7: 1
#6Brian Hunter'91-'00 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,742 PA	2.6	1,742	67	4	226*	288*	432*	-29	+4	0.1	0.8
/162	664	26	2	-11.1	+1.6	0.0	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Edwin Rios (OGILVIE)	33	40	60	45	55	233/301/426	193	309	10	2	32%	8%	105	+0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Yadiel Hernandez 2021 · MLB	33	47→54	54→55	44→45	44	245/301/421	176	307	23	7	28%	7%	102	+1.5	253/303/403	150	309	19	7	24%	6%	98	+1.2	264/313/408	144	313	19	4	22%	6%	103	+0.9
✕Seth Brown 2024 · MLB	32	42→48	60→65	50	47	231/295/445	214	270	28	9	27%	8%	106	+1.8	237/294/413	176	297	24	7	28%	7%	98	+1.2	229/286/392	163	292	24	6	29%	7%	88	+0.2
✕Mike Ford 2024 · MLB	32	42→51	55	48→30	51	224/310/404	180	265	24	3	25%	10%	102	+1.5	220/292/373	153	273	19	6	26%	8%	88	+0.4	191/256/307	116	241	15	3	27%	8%	56	-0.6
✕Garrett Jones 2014 · MLB	33	47→52	58→60	49→50	47	250/305/460	210	280	26	5	22%	7%	112	+2.2	245/299/418	173	290	19	3	22%	7%	101	+1.4	243/299/410	166	289	18	0	22%	7%	99	+0.7
✕Jon Singleton 2024 · MLB	32	38→48	53→50	44→45	54	205/298/372	168	257	21	4	29%	12%	91	+0.6	203/288/350	147	265	19	4	29%	11%	82	-0.0	187/276/321	134	244	18	1	30%	11%	69	-0.7
✕Trayce Thompson 2024 · MLB	33	42→49	57→60	49→50	45	217/303/416	200	313	26	8	37%	10%	102	+1.5	188/254/334	146	272	18	12	36%	8%	65	-1.2	164/225/296	132	232	16	12	36%	7%	44	-1.9
✕Melvin Nieves 2006 · AAA	34	46	55	43→40	52	234/329/418	184	312	23	7	31%	12%	112	+2.2	217/306/371	154	338	19	6	37%	11%	93	+0.8	191/292/335	144	302	19	0	40%	12%	80	-0.1
✕Justin Bour 2021 · MLB	33	41→51	57→65	47→40	54	222/314/414	192	264	25	5	26%	12%	105	+1.7	222/303/385	163	278	20	8	26%	10%	95	+0.9	167/266/312	146	199	19	0	27%	10%	61	-0.3
✕Brett Harper 2016 · AAA	35	46→51	54→60	46→30	44	242/303/406	164	299	24	6	28%	7%	99	+1.3	233/288/380	147	293	20	5	27%	6%	88	+0.4	223/276/357	134	277	19	0	26%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Lucas Duda 2019 · MLB	33	42→52	60→65	47→30	47	233/309/452	219	276	29	3	27%	9%	113	+2.3	216/284/376	160	280	20	5	29%	8%	86	+0.3	159/226/277	117	210	16	0	32%	7%	42	-1.1
✕Kevin Barker 2006 · AAA	31	45	54→55	44→40	45	237/293/412	176	287	22	4	26%	7%	97	+1.1	226/288/381	155	283	18	4	26%	8%	88	+0.4	244/309/410	165	282	17	1	20%	8%	102	+1.0
✕Ji Man Choi 2024 · MLB	33	43→50	52→55	46→45	53	221/315/394	173	287	20	3	29%	12%	101	+1.4	217/298/372	155	290	18	7	30%	10%	90	+0.6	146/243/247	101	203	15	0	35%	11%	43	-0.5
✕Brad Miller 2023 · MLB	33	43→53	53→60	48→50	49	225/302/393	167	284	23	8	29%	10%	97	+1.1	224/304/369	145	287	17	8	27%	10%	91	+0.7	179/287/296	117	231	13	0	27%	13%	69	-0.2
✕Jeff Liefer 2008 · MLB	33	48→50	53→60	48→30	45	250/299/426	176	292	21	8	22%	6%	103	+1.5	217/275/341	124	298	12	9	30%	7%	74	-0.6	183/238/285	102	254	9	3	30%	7%	47	-0.6
✕Rick Ankiel 2011 · MLB	32	45→48	53→65	45→50	45	234/294/410	175	290	20	6	27%	7%	97	+1.1	230/284/387	157	304	17	9	29%	7%	88	+0.4	225/275/383	158	298	17	9	30%	6%	84	+0.1
✕Shelley Duncan 2013 · MLB	33	41→44	54→60	40→45	51	221/297/399	178	253	23	4	23%	9%	96	+1.0	192/258/324	132	234	15	4	25%	8%	64	-1.3	155/214/261	106	191	12	0	26%	6%	32	-2.7
✕Graham Koonce 2007 · AAA	32	39→40	54→55	44→30	46	213/284/387	174	260	23	4	28%	8%	88	+0.5	211/282/380	169	270	21	6	29%	8%	86	+0.3	176/254/351	175	214	23	0	30%	8%	68	-0.5
✕Mike Yastrzemski 2024 · MLB	33	43→50	57→65	46→50	52	230/316/437	207	274	24	5	25%	10%	112	+2.2	235/316/425	190	280	22	6	24%	10%	109	+2.0	230/315/413	182	272	21	5	23%	10%	106	+1.4
✕Aaron Guiel 2006 · MLB	33	43→53	54→60	44→45	47	226/298/403	177	256	22	6	22%	7%	97	+1.1	227/311/412	185	262	22	6	23%	8%	105	+1.7	214/316/414	201	239	25	3	22%	10%	107	+1.3
✕John Mabry 2003 · MLB	32	47	55→60	44→30	45	247/303/436	189	283	24	5	22%	6%	107	+1.8	251/315/432	181	289	22	4	21%	8%	109	+2.0	248/311/420	173	289	21	0	22%	8%	106	+0.7

Edwin Rios

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps