Hunter Dozier — OGILVIE

Hunter Dozier1B Salt Lake Bees

Age 34 R/R 6'4" / 220 lbs AAA HR -4% Svc 10.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 238 proj PA

wRC+†74

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .269 / .360

PA238

HR7

K%31

BB%6

ISO142

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 51

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2023

CONTACT20

Whiff%

2014.4%

xwOBA

400.297

POWER51

Barrel%

487.9

Avg EV

4688.8

EYE45

Chase%

3434.9%

SPEED63

Sprint

7128.3

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 10.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.4M		$-0.1M	-$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2013	21	ROK	2 teams	—	317	288	67	21	0	5	23	52	4	3	1	233	298	358	656	125	266	16	7	289	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	ROK	2 teams	—	317	273	84	30	0	7	38	37	4	3	1	308	400	495	895	187	333	12	12	395	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AA	3 teams	—	639	583	137	36	0	9	45	199	7	10	5	235	298	343	641	108	338	31	7	285	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AA	3 teams	—	639	544	137	36	0	9	84	155	7	10	5	252	359	368	727	116	333	24	13	332	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	523	493	87	21	1	14	27	186	1	6	2	176	221	308	529	132	247	36	5	228	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	523	475	101	27	1	12	45	151	1	6	2	213	282	349	632	137	283	29	9	284	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA	3 teams	—	565	525	133	41	1	18	36	156	1	7	1	253	302	438	741	185	325	28	6	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA	3 teams	—	565	505	148	45	1	23	56	131	1	7	1	293	365	523	888	230	353	23	10	387	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA	3 teams	—	201	183	32	9	2	6	15	94	2	2	1	175	245	344	589	169	310	47	7	258	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA	3 teams	—	201	176	39	7	1	8	22	67	2	2	1	222	315	409	724	188	304	33	11	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB	2 teams	—	531	488	109	26	4	12	40	164	2	4	4	223	285	367	652	143	310	31	8	290	80	-12	-1	-10	-9	+15	-1.8
2018	26	MLB	2 teams	—	531	480	113	26	4	12	48	152	2	4	4	235	308	381	689	146	319	29	9	309	95	-3	-1	-10	-9	+15	-0.9
2019	27	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	586	523	151	31	10	28	55	148	3	2	2	289	360	547	907	258	349	25	9	383	151	+34	-0	-6	+2	+17	4.7
2019	27	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	586	523	146	29	10	26	55	148	3	2	2	279	351	522	873	243	339	25	9	378	147	+31	-0	-6	+2	+17	4.4
2020	28	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	186	158	36	4	2	6	27	48	1	4	0	228	344	392	736	165	288	26	15	338	117	+4	+1	-2	-3	+5	0.4
2020	28	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	186	158	36	4	2	6	27	48	1	4	0	228	344	392	736	165	288	26	15	334	114	+3	+1	-2	-3	+5	0.4
2021	29	MLB	2 teams	—	561	505	111	30	6	17	43	160	7	5	4	220	290	404	694	184	281	29	8	302	89	-7	-1	-13	-6	+16	-1.1
2021	29	MLB	2 teams	—	561	505	108	29	6	16	43	159	7	5	4	214	285	390	675	176	274	28	8	298	86	-9	-1	-13	-6	+16	-1.3
2022	30	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	500	462	113	28	4	13	34	125	3	4	3	245	301	407	708	162	308	25	7	308	94	-3	-0	-8	-9	+14	-0.7
2022	30	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	500	462	109	26	4	12	34	125	3	4	3	236	293	387	680	152	298	25	7	303	90	-6	-0	-8	-9	+14	-1.0
2023	31	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	91	82	15	2	1	2	8	29	0	2	0	183	256	305	560	122	250	32	9	256	54	-5	+0	-1	+0	+3	-0.2
2023	31	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	91	82	15	2	1	2	8	29	0	2	0	183	256	305	560	122	250	32	9	252	51	-5	+0	-1	+0	+3	-0.2
2024	32	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	214	200	30	6	1	6	10	88	1	3	0	150	194	280	474	130	222	41	5	202	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	214	198	44	11	1	7	12	64	1	3	0	222	270	394	664	172	287	30	6	290	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	34	MLB	LAA	—	238	220	49	9	1	7	14	73	2	4	1	223	275	368	644	145	295	31	6	282	74	-7	+0	-2	+1	+7	-0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	35	MLB	LAA	100%	182	169	36	6	1	5	10	57	1	2	1	213	261	349	610	136	285	31	5	269	64	-7	+0	-7	+1	+5	-0.9
2027	35	MLB	LAA	100%	182	169	36	6	1	5	10	57	1	2	1	213	261	349	610	136	284	31	5	263	59	-8	+0	-7	+1	+5	-1.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2497	2262	534	114	28	78	203	678	16	21	13	236	304	415	718	179	300	27	8	316	100	+1	-1	-47	-31	+71	-0.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	589	139	30	7	20	53	176	4	5	3	236	303	413	716	177	300	27	8	316	100	+0	-0	-12	-8	+18	-0.2
Career	—			—	5334	4879	1106	270	34	148	387	1579	35	58	25	227	288	387	675	160	301	30	7	295	84	-98	+2	-49	-23	+151	-1.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	595	135	33	4	18	47	192	4	7	3	227	288	387	674	160	301	30	7	295	84	-12	+0	-6	-3	+18	-0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2013	21	A	Lexington Legends	—	59	55	18	6	0	0	3	5	1	0	0	327	373	436	809	109	360	8	5	363	136	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.4
2013	21	ROK	Idaho Falls Chukars	—	258	218	66	24	0	7	35	32	3	3	1	303	406	509	915	206	326	12	14	402	166	+19	+0	—	—	+7	2.7
2014	22	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	267	234	49	12	0	4	31	70	1	3	2	209	305	312	616	103	280	26	12	284	76	-7	-0	—	—	+8	0.0
2014	22	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	267	224	66	18	0	4	35	56	5	7	3	295	402	429	830	134	371	21	13	372	143	+13	+0	—	—	+8	2.1
2014	22	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	105	86	22	6	0	1	18	29	1	0	0	256	390	360	751	105	375	28	17	349	125	+3	+0	—	—	+3	0.6
2015	23	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	523	475	101	27	1	12	45	151	1	6	2	213	282	349	632	137	283	29	9	284	76	-14	+0	—	—	+15	0.1
2016	24	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	21	19	4	1	0	0	2	8	0	0	0	211	286	263	549	53	364	38	10	257	55	-1	+0	+0	-6	+1	-0.7
2016	24	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	434	391	115	36	1	15	40	100	0	3	1	294	360	506	866	212	358	23	9	378	147	+23	+0	—	—	+12	3.6
2016	24	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	110	95	29	8	0	8	14	23	1	4	0	305	400	642	1.042	337	328	21	13	447	200	+12	+1	—	—	+3	1.7
2017	25	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	96	84	19	6	1	4	9	37	2	1	1	226	316	464	780	238	341	39	9	340	118	+2	-0	—	—	+3	0.5
2017	25	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	20	16	4	1	0	0	4	8	0	0	0	250	400	312	713	62	500	40	20	339	118	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2017	25	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	85	76	16	0	0	4	9	22	0	1	0	211	294	368	663	158	240	26	11	300	87	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2018	26	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	388	362	83	19	4	11	24	109	1	2	3	229	279	395	674	166	296	28	6	298	86	-6	-1	-10	-9	+11	-1.6
2018	26	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	143	118	30	7	0	1	24	43	1	2	1	254	385	339	724	85	392	30	17	339	117	+3	+0	—	—	+4	0.7
2019	27	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	586	523	146	29	10	26	55	148	3	2	2	279	351	522	873	243	339	25	9	378	147	+31	-0	-6	+2	+17	4.4
2020	28	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	186	158	36	4	2	6	27	48	1	4	0	228	344	392	736	165	288	26	15	334	114	+3	+1	-2	-3	+5	0.4
2021	29	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	543	487	105	27	6	16	43	154	7	5	4	216	289	394	683	179	276	28	8	301	89	-7	-1	-13	-6	+15	-1.1
2021	29	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	18	18	3	2	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	167	167	278	444	111	231	28	0	193	6	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2022	30	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	500	462	109	26	4	12	34	125	3	4	3	236	293	387	680	152	298	25	7	303	90	-6	-0	-8	-9	+14	-1.0
2023	31	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	91	82	15	2	1	2	8	29	0	2	0	183	256	305	560	122	250	32	9	252	51	-5	+0	-1	+0	+3	-0.2
2024	32	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	214	198	44	11	1	7	12	64	1	3	0	222	270	394	664	172	287	30	6	290	80	-5	+1	—	—	+6	0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2315	2093	498	108	27	73	193	621	15	19	12	238	307	420	727	182	301	27	8	321	104	+9	-1	-40	-31	+66	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Pedro Álvarezlast yr '18 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,287 PA	8	3,287	161	15	235	309	447	+1	-40	10.0	10.2
	/162	664	33	3	235	309	447	+0.2	-8.0	2.0	pk7: 10
#2Brad Millerlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,531 PA	11	3,531	123	43	236	314	416	+7	-38	8.8	9.4
	/162	664	23	8	236	314	416	+1.4	-7.2	1.7	pk7: 10
#3Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	7	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
	/162	664	22	3	243	306	411	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	2,500	78	22	238	301	418	+5	-45	7.1	7.5
	/162	664	21	6	238	301	418	+1.3	-12.1	1.9	pk7: 8
#4Derek Dietrichlast yr '20 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,513 PA	8	2,513	84	7	245	335	428	-5	-45	6.7	6.7
	/162	664	22	2	245	335	428	-1.2	-11.8	1.8	pk7: 7
#5Wily Mo Peñalast yr '11 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,827 PA	7	1,827	83	12	250	304	445	-12	-32	2.5	2.5
	/162	664	30	4	250	304	445	-4.3	-11.6	0.9	pk7: 3
#6John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Hunter Dozier (OGILVIE)	34	20	51	63	45	219/269/360	141	295	7	4	31%	6%	74	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kristopher Negrón 2019 · MLB	33	44→51	45	54→55	38	217/273/340	123	308	13	16	33%	6%	69	-0.4	231/291/357	126	336	14	14	33%	7%	82	+0.5	239/303/358	120	349	14	14	33%	7%	82	+0.4
✕Mike Hessman 2012 · MLB	34	37→36	54→65	47→45	42	205/275/385	180	266	22	5	32%	7%	83	+0.6	198/251/394	196	250	28	3	33%	6%	76	+0.0	198/259/397	199	237	27	3	30%	7%	78	+0.2
✕Matt Carson 2015 · MLB	34	45→50	46→60	51→50	39	224/273/347	124	297	14	14	29%	5%	71	-0.3	214/274/336	122	276	13	13	26%	6%	69	-0.4	180/253/278	97	221	11	11	23%	6%	44	-0.7
✕Drew Maggi 2023 · AAA	34	38→48	40→45	54→60	41	187/262/282	95	276	8	23	33%	7%	50	-1.7	195/253/311	116	262	13	15	30%	6%	53	-1.5	165/215/280	115	203	16	9	28%	4%	26	-0.7
✕Chad Mottola 2007 · MLB	35	42→44	50→55	47→45	40	220/258/372	151	266	18	7	25%	4%	71	-0.3	228/269/382	154	272	18	9	23%	5%	79	+0.3	226/268/387	161	258	19	7	21%	5%	76	+0.1
✕Jed Hansen 2006 · AAA	33	41→40	45	51→50	39	203/265/328	124	281	12	14	31%	6%	63	-0.8	211/268/328	117	268	12	13	25%	6%	64	-0.8	199/258/303	104	244	11	12	23%	6%	50	-1.2
✕Brandon Snyder 2021 · AAA	34	38→48	55	47→45	31	201/254/376	176	316	24	6	43%	5%	72	-0.2	210/280/377	167	304	22	7	37%	7%	83	+0.6	167/254/334	167	223	26	0	37%	7%	59	-0.4
✕David Matranga 2009 · AAA	32	42	46→45	49→50	42	213/278/339	126	281	14	10	29%	6%	72	-0.2	223/303/350	127	303	13	9	28%	9%	85	+0.7	209/311/324	115	287	11	5	28%	10%	82	+0.2
✕Brandon Barnes 2019 · MLB	33	46→53	44→55	50	38	223/275/343	119	317	11	16	32%	5%	70	-0.3	223/271/397	174	300	23	13	33%	5%	84	+0.6	204/249/406	202	256	30	11	34%	4%	75	-0.0
✕Robert Andino 2017 · MLB	33	43→53	46→45	50	39	217/257/343	125	281	14	8	28%	5%	63	-0.9	223/266/361	138	297	16	9	30%	5%	72	-0.2	204/243/338	134	265	19	2	31%	5%	52	-0.5
●Reynaldo Rodriguez 2019 · AAA	33	43→47	45→60	50	45	215/275/329	114	283	13	15	28%	8%	67	-0.5	296/336/579	283	320	42	13	22%	5%	160	+5.9	341/377/706	365	350	58	11	20%	5%	213	+4.3
✕Juan Carlos Perez 2019 · AAA	32	43→53	44→50	55	39	216/253/337	121	277	10	20	26%	4%	59	-1.1	243/299/363	120	301	11	13	22%	6%	85	+0.7	254/312/370	116	313	9	13	21%	7%	90	+0.8
●Joshua Rodriguez 2019 · AAA	34	40→50	43→50	47→50	39	202/257/310	109	293	12	6	34%	7%	54	-1.4	255/308/425	170	322	22	6	27%	7%	106	+2.2	269/324/450	182	330	26	3	26%	7%	115	+2.3
✕Brad Eldred 2012 · MLB	32	38→40	54→65	47→45	38	209/262/384	175	267	23	10	31%	5%	77	+0.1	234/286/466	232	303	32	11	33%	6%	109	+2.4	231/284/555	324	279	48	9	37%	6%	129	+1.8
✕Humberto Sosa 2019 · AAA	33	42→49	44→50	49→45	42	213/259/324	110	266	12	7	25%	6%	59	-1.1	263/314/504	241	308	33	8	26%	6%	131	+3.9	294/349/646	353	317	52	0	26%	6%	179	+2.1
✕Pedro Swann 2006 · MLB	35	47	50	53→45	40	237/289/397	160	287	18	7	24%	4%	92	+1.2	242/290/382	140	304	13	11	24%	5%	87	+0.8	247/294/379	132	313	11	12	24%	5%	87	+0.5
✕Charlie Culberson 2023 · MLB	34	48→49	45	47→50	44	238/287/366	127	298	12	13	24%	6%	81	+0.4	226/275/342	116	315	12	12	30%	6%	70	-0.3	182/208/225	43	295	5	14	39%	3%	11	-0.8
✕Bobby Smith 2006 · AAA	32	48→49	45→50	54→50	44	239/288/361	121	287	13	11	22%	6%	80	+0.4	230/273/362	132	309	14	11	29%	5%	74	-0.1	214/247/354	141	308	14	7	35%	4%	58	-0.4
✕Collin Cowgill 2019 · AAA	33	39→49	46→50	45→55	42	201/260/325	124	265	14	8	29%	7%	60	-1.0	207/276/354	147	287	18	12	33%	7%	75	-0.0	170/255/317	147	236	19	15	36%	8%	54	-0.7
✕Alberto Castillo 2004 · MLB	34	43	46→30	48→30	43	216/269/345	128	267	13	8	25%	6%	69	-0.4	237/313/348	111	278	9	6	17%	10%	88	+0.9	235/311/307	73	284	2	2	17%	10%	74	-0.0