Billy McKinney

LF Round Rock Express

Age 32 L/L 6'0" / 205 lbs AAA HR +15%BB +5% Svc 9.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	28	AAAScranton/Wilk…	160	.274/.388/.511	9	3	84	—	.210/.294/.364
2023	28	MLBNYY	147	.227/.322/.406	6	1	99	-0.3
2024	29	AAA/A+PIT	187	.289/.416/.441	5	1	87	—	.230/.314/.338
2024	29	MLBPIT	28	.200/.286/.240	0	0	55	-0.3
2025	30	AAATEX	385	.240/.332/.405	12	6	61	—	.190/.260/.318
2025	30	MLBTEX	21	.200/.238/.250	0	0	38	-0.6
2026	31	No MLB games played
2027PROJ10% MLB	32	MLBTEX	24	.232/.302/.388	1	0	92	0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	33	MLBTEX	65	.224/.292/.368	2	0	84	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.2 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service9.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

xwOBA66

Barrel%64

Avg EV41

Bat Spd40

Speed36

CompsKevin Barker (age 32) · Matt Szczur (age 32) · John Rodriguez (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†92

AVG/OBP/SLG.232 / .302 / .388

PA24

HR1

K%25

BB%8

BABIP284

ISO182

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT45

xAVG

280.233

POWER50

Barrel%

6410.3

Avg EV

4188.4

Bat Spd

4070.3

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

3626.8

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 9.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.0	$0.0M	-$1.0M
Totals		$1M		$0.0M	-$1.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	18	ROK	AZL Athletics	—	206	181	58	7	2	2	17	29	4	7	0	320	391	414	805	94	364	14	8	358	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A+	Daytona Cubs	—	543	466	123	24	6	11	61	100	8	6	3	264	359	412	771	148	309	18	11	343	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	308	274	78	26	1	3	27	47	1	0	0	285	351	420	771	135	329	15	9	338	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	125	103	35	5	2	4	17	13	2	0	2	340	443	544	986	204	348	10	14	424	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	491	426	105	19	4	4	59	97	4	4	6	246	344	338	682	92	309	20	12	313	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	224	209	64	13	3	10	9	49	2	0	0	306	341	541	882	234	353	22	4	377	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	276	232	58	16	4	6	30	45	5	2	1	250	348	431	779	181	277	16	11	337	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	83	68	19	5	1	1	11	16	1	1	0	279	388	426	814	147	333	19	13	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	132	119	30	7	0	6	11	33	1	1	0	252	321	462	783	210	296	25	8	343	118	+3	+0	-2	-5	+3	-0.1
2018	23	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	306	276	61	11	7	16	29	72	1	0	0	221	297	486	783	264	239	24	9	340	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	21	18	4	1	0	0	3	4	0	1	1	222	333	278	611	56	286	19	14	290	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	276	251	54	14	1	12	19	73	2	0	2	215	276	422	698	207	250	26	7	303	91	-3	-1	-5	-5	+6	-0.8
2019	24	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	154	129	35	8	4	4	22	25	2	1	1	271	386	488	874	217	307	16	14	384	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	300	265	51	11	3	9	32	79	1	2	0	192	282	358	640	166	235	26	11	287	82	-6	+0	+1	-3	+6	-0.2
2021	26	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	15	15	4	3	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	267	267	467	733	200	444	40	0	317	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	57	52	5	1	0	1	4	16	0	0	0	96	161	173	334	77	111	28	7	156	-15	-8	+0	+1	-4	+1	-0.9
2022	27	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	293	251	74	13	5	12	36	83	6	2	0	295	396	530	926	235	397	28	12	406	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB	New York Yankees	—	147	128	29	3	1	6	17	39	1	1	0	227	322	406	728	180	274	27	12	325	99	-0	+0	-2	-3	+3	-0.3
2023	28	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	160	135	37	5	0	9	22	32	3	3	1	274	388	511	899	237	298	20	14	397	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	28	25	5	1	0	0	2	13	1	0	0	200	286	240	526	40	417	46	7	251	55	-1	+0	+0	-2	+1	-0.3
2024	29	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	165	137	41	7	0	5	24	37	2	0	3	299	411	460	871	161	371	22	15	387	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	22	15	3	1	0	0	6	5	1	1	0	200	455	267	721	67	300	23	27	364	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	21	20	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	200	238	250	488	50	211	5	5	224	38	-2	+0	-0	-4	+0	-0.6
2025	30	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	385	338	81	14	3	12	44	92	3	6	3	240	332	405	738	166	295	24	11	332	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	961	860	178	38	5	34	86	254	6	4	2	207	284	381	665	174	249	26	9	295	86	-16	+0	-8	-27	+21	-3.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	18	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics	—	206	187	45	5	1	2	11	42	4	7	0	241	297	310	607	70	282	20	5	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A+ MLE	Daytona Cubs	—	543	481	110	22	5	10	46	148	8	6	3	229	307	358	664	129	293	27	8	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	308	282	73	25	1	2	19	59	1	0	0	259	308	376	684	117	309	19	6	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	125	109	35	4	2	4	11	18	2	0	2	321	393	505	898	183	331	14	9	390	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	Trenton Thunder	—	491	446	103	17	4	3	39	119	4	4	6	231	299	307	606	76	306	24	8	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	224	212	57	11	3	7	6	59	2	0	0	269	295	448	744	179	330	26	3	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	Trenton Thunder	—	276	240	54	15	3	5	22	55	5	2	1	225	303	375	678	150	250	20	8	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	132	119	30	7	0	6	11	33	1	1	0	252	321	462	783	210	296	25	8	343	118	+3	+0	-2	-5	+3	-0.1
2018	23	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	306	283	53	9	6	13	22	87	1	0	0	187	248	399	648	212	214	28	7	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Trenton Thunder	—	21	19	4	1	0	0	2	5	0	1	1	211	286	263	549	53	280	24	10	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	276	251	54	14	1	12	19	73	2	0	2	215	276	422	698	207	250	26	7	303	91	-3	-1	-5	-5	+6	-0.8
2019	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	154	135	32	7	4	4	16	31	2	1	1	237	327	437	764	200	277	20	10	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	300	267	53	12	4	9	30	79	1	2	0	199	282	375	656	176	235	26	10	289	82	-6	+0	+1	-3	+6	-0.2
2021	26	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	15	15	3	2	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	200	200	333	533	133	403	47	0	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	57	53	5	1	0	1	3	16	0	0	0	94	143	170	313	75	111	28	5	147	-15	-8	+0	+1	-4	+1	-0.9
2022	27	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	293	263	60	9	5	8	24	99	6	2	0	228	307	392	699	163	334	34	8	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	147	129	29	3	1	6	16	39	1	1	0	225	315	403	718	178	274	27	11	315	99	-0	+0	-2	-3	+3	-0.3
2023	28	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	160	143	30	4	0	6	14	39	3	3	1	210	294	364	657	154	244	24	9	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	28	25	5	1	0	0	2	13	1	0	0	200	286	240	526	40	417	46	7	250	55	-1	+0	+0	-2	+1	-0.3
2024	29	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	165	147	35	5	0	4	14	47	2	0	3	238	313	354	667	116	313	28	8	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	22	18	3	1	0	0	3	6	1	1	0	167	318	222	540	56	237	27	14	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	21	20	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	200	238	250	488	50	211	5	5	225	38	-2	+0	-0	-4	+0	-0.6
2025	30	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	385	352	67	12	3	9	30	102	3	6	3	190	260	318	578	128	243	26	8	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics	—	206	187	45	5	1	2	11	42	4	7	0	241	297	310	607	70	293	20	5	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	ROK RAW	AZL Athletics	—	206	181	58	7	2	2	17	29	4	7	0	320	391	414	805	94	364	14	8	358	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A+ MLE	Daytona Cubs	—	543	481	110	22	5	10	46	148	8	6	3	229	307	358	664	129	302	27	8	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A+ RAW	Daytona Cubs	—	543	466	123	24	6	11	61	100	8	6	3	264	359	412	771	148	309	18	11	343	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	433	391	108	29	2	7	30	77	3	0	2	276	333	414	747	138	322	18	7	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	AA RAW	2 teams	—	433	377	113	31	3	7	44	60	3	0	2	300	377	454	831	154	334	14	10	363	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	Trenton Thunder	—	491	446	103	17	4	3	39	119	4	4	6	231	299	307	606	76	307	24	8	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA RAW	Trenton Thunder	—	491	426	105	19	4	4	59	97	4	4	6	246	344	338	682	92	309	20	12	313	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	583	526	131	31	7	14	33	133	8	3	1	249	303	414	718	165	298	23	6	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA RAW	3 teams	—	583	509	141	34	8	17	50	110	8	3	1	277	351	475	826	198	314	19	9	355	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	459	421	87	17	6	19	35	125	2	2	1	207	271	411	682	204	245	27	8	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	459	413	95	19	7	22	43	109	2	2	1	230	306	470	775	240	258	24	9	339	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	430	386	86	21	5	16	35	104	4	1	3	223	294	427	722	205	260	24	8	312	97	-1	-1	-5	-5	+9	-0.3
2019	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	430	380	89	22	5	16	41	98	4	1	3	234	315	445	760	211	271	23	10	332	97	-1	-1	-5	-5	+9	-0.3
2021	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	315	282	56	14	4	9	30	86	1	2	0	199	278	372	650	174	249	27	10	287	80	-7	+0	+1	-3	+7	-0.3
2021	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	315	280	55	14	3	9	32	85	1	2	0	196	281	364	645	168	245	27	10	288	80	-7	+0	+1	-3	+7	-0.3
2022	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	350	316	65	10	5	9	27	115	6	2	0	206	281	354	635	149	290	33	8	278	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	350	303	79	14	5	13	40	99	6	2	0	261	358	469	827	208	344	28	11	366	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	307	272	59	7	1	12	30	78	4	4	1	217	304	382	686	165	257	25	10	303	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	307	263	66	8	1	15	39	71	4	4	1	251	356	460	816	209	287	23	13	362	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	215	189	43	7	0	4	20	66	4	1	3	228	315	328	643	101	322	31	9	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	215	177	49	9	0	5	32	55	4	1	3	277	399	412	811	136	370	26	15	367	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	406	372	72	14	3	9	31	103	3	6	3	194	261	320	581	126	242	25	8	256	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	406	358	85	15	3	12	45	93	3	6	3	237	328	397	724	159	289	23	11	326	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics	—	206	189	45	5	1	2	11	42	4	7	0	238	297	307	604	69	282	20	5	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A+ MLE	Daytona Cubs	—	543	484	110	22	5	10	46	148	8	6	3	227	307	355	662	128	293	27	8	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	433	397	108	29	2	7	30	77	3	0	2	272	333	408	741	136	315	18	7	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	Trenton Thunder	—	491	445	103	17	4	3	39	119	4	4	6	231	299	308	606	76	306	24	8	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	583	537	131	31	7	14	33	133	8	3	1	244	303	406	709	162	286	23	6	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	459	419	87	17	6	19	35	125	2	2	1	208	271	413	684	205	241	27	8	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	430	388	86	21	5	16	35	104	4	1	3	222	294	425	719	204	260	24	8	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	315	281	56	14	4	9	30	86	1	2	0	199	278	374	652	174	243	27	10	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	350	314	65	10	5	9	27	115	6	2	0	207	281	357	637	150	298	33	8	278	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	307	270	59	7	1	12	30	78	4	4	1	219	304	385	689	167	258	25	10	303	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	215	189	43	7	0	4	20	66	4	1	3	228	315	328	643	101	319	31	9	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	406	369	72	14	3	9	31	103	3	6	3	195	261	322	584	127	241	25	8	256	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	215	189	43	7	0	4	20	66	4	1	3	228	315	328	643	101	319	31	9	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	406	369	72	14	3	9	31	103	3	6	3	195	261	322	584	127	241	25	8	256	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	TEX	10%	380	342	79	15	2	11	31	95	4	5	2	231	301	381	682	150	285	25	8	304	92	-4	+0	-0	-4	+8	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	TEX	10%	24	22	5	1	0	1	2	6	0	0	0	232	302	388	690	156	284	25	8	307	92	-0	+0	-0	-0	+1	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	TEX	27%	238	215	48	9	1	6	19	61	2	1	1	222	291	362	653	140	277	26	8	292	84	-5	-0	-4	-3	+5	-0.7
2028	33	MLB CTX	TEX	27%	65	59	13	2	0	2	5	17	1	0	0	224	292	368	661	145	276	26	8	295	84	-1	+0	-1	-1	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1026	919	191	40	5	36	91	271	7	4	2	208	284	380	664	172	250	26	9	295	84	-18	+0	-9	-27	+22	-3.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	582	121	25	3	23	58	172	4	3	1	208	284	380	663	172	251	26	9	295	84	-11	+0	-6	-17	+14	-2.1
Career	—	MLE		—	5214	4699	1062	212	45	127	405	1316	55	42	25	226	295	371	666	145	283	25	8	292	84	-23	+0	-13	-32	+31	-3.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	133	26	6	16	50	164	7	5	3	227	295	374	669	147	284	25	8	292	84	-10	+0	-6	-14	+14	-1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAARound Rock Express · 385 PAwOBA .322 → .258 (−65)K% 23.9% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.90%	÷1.086	×1.200	—	—	26.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.17%	÷0.962	×0.690	—	×0.962	7.71%
HBP% /PA	0.78%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.70%
Singles /BIP	21.14%	÷1.053	×0.930	×0.963	×0.962	17.30%
Doubles /BIP	5.69%	÷0.881	×0.830	×0.963	×0.962	4.97%
Triples /BIP	1.22%	÷0.921	×0.970	×0.963	×0.962	1.19%
Home runs /BIP	4.88%	÷0.913	×0.700	—	×0.962	3.60%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 111, 2B 76, 3B 84, K 117, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.

Result: wOBA .322 → .258; ISO .166 → .135; BABIP .295 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 165 PAwOBA .376 → .303 (−73)K% 22.4% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.42%	÷0.948	×1.200	—	—	28.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.73%	÷0.977	×0.690	—	×0.972	8.74%
HBP% /PA	1.21%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	1.11%
Singles /BIP	29.00%	÷1.009	×0.930	×0.981	×0.972	25.50%
Doubles /BIP	7.00%	÷1.050	×0.830	×0.981	×0.972	5.28%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.981	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.00%	÷0.909	×0.700	—	×0.972	3.74%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 90, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .376 → .303; ISO .161 → .123; BABIP .371 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 22 PAwOBA .358 → .256 (−102)K% 22.7% → 28.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.73%	÷1.029	×1.310	—	—	28.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	27.27%	÷0.974	×0.600	—	×0.940	15.79%
HBP% /PA	4.55%	—	×0.770	—	×0.940	3.29%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.024	×0.870	—	×0.940	15.98%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷0.950	×0.780	—	×0.940	7.72%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.850	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.106	×0.880	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 106, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 22.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .358 → .256; ISO .067 → .059; BABIP .300 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 160 PAwOBA .387 → .293 (−94)K% 20.0% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷0.998	×1.200	—	—	24.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.75%	÷1.059	×0.690	—	×0.982	8.80%
HBP% /PA	1.88%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.73%
Singles /BIP	22.33%	÷1.029	×0.930	×0.950	×0.982	18.82%
Doubles /BIP	4.85%	÷0.903	×0.830	×0.950	×0.982	4.16%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.048	×0.970	×0.950	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.74%	÷1.017	×0.700	—	×0.982	5.91%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 106, 2B 81, 3B 110, K 100, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .387 → .293; ISO .237 → .170; BABIP .298 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 293 PAwOBA .395 → .304 (−90)K% 28.3% → 33.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.33%	÷1.009	×1.200	—	—	33.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.95%	÷0.992	×0.690	—	×0.992	8.24%
HBP% /PA	2.05%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.91%
Singles /BIP	26.19%	÷0.995	×0.930	×0.957	×0.992	23.23%
Doubles /BIP	7.74%	÷1.088	×0.830	×0.957	×0.992	5.60%
Triples /BIP	2.98%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.957	×0.992	3.05%
Home runs /BIP	7.14%	÷1.075	×0.700	—	×0.992	4.61%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 99, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 102, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.

Result: wOBA .395 → .304; ISO .235 → .167; BABIP .397 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 15 PAwOBA .308 → .239 (−68)K% 40.0% → 48.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	40.00%	÷0.994	×1.200	—	—	48.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷1.015	×0.690	—	×1.003	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	11.11%	÷0.958	×0.930	—	×1.003	10.82%
Doubles /BIP	33.33%	÷0.941	×0.830	—	×1.003	29.49%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.920	—	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.016	×0.700	—	×1.003	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 92, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 99, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .308 → .239; ISO .200 → .153; BABIP .444 → .403. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAABuffalo Bisons · 154 PAwOBA .374 → .328 (−46)K% 16.2% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.23%	÷0.968	×1.200	—	—	20.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.64%	÷0.953	×0.690	—	×1.033	10.20%
HBP% /PA	1.30%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	1.26%
Singles /BIP	18.27%	÷1.011	×0.930	×0.950	×1.033	16.48%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷0.954	×0.830	×0.950	×1.033	6.57%
Triples /BIP	3.85%	÷0.909	×0.970	×0.950	×1.033	4.03%
Home runs /BIP	3.85%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.033	3.34%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 102, 2B 91, 3B 82, K 94, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .374 → .328; ISO .217 → .201; BABIP .307 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAABuffalo Bisons · 306 PAwOBA .331 → .270 (−61)K% 23.5% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.53%	÷0.993	×1.200	—	—	28.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.48%	÷0.954	×0.690	—	×1.048	7.19%
HBP% /PA	0.33%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.32%
Singles /BIP	13.24%	÷0.970	×0.930	×0.950	×1.048	12.63%
Doubles /BIP	5.39%	÷0.987	×0.830	×0.950	×1.048	4.51%
Triples /BIP	3.43%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×1.048	2.88%
Home runs /BIP	7.84%	÷1.080	×0.840	—	×1.048	6.39%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 94, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 99, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .331 → .270; ISO .264 → .209; BABIP .239 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#4Brian Hunter'91-'00 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,742 PA	2.6	1,742	67	4	226*	288*	432*	-29	+4	0.1	0.8
/162	664	26	2	-11.1	+1.6	0.0	pk7: 1
#5Eric Anthony'89-'97 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,243 PA	3.4	2,243	78	24	225*	300*	410*	-22	-22	0.1	0.6
/162	664	23	7	-6.7	-6.6	0.0	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	1.5	1,001	36	5	209	283	388	-11	-8	0.1	0.2
/162	664	24	3	-7.1	-5.2	0.1	pk7: 0
#6Karim Garcia'95-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,560 PA	2.3	1,560	66	10	231*	269*	413*	-16	-3	-1.0	0.1
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-1.3	-0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Billy McKinney (OGILVIE)	32	45	50	45	55	229/298/378	149	285	7	3	25%	8%	92	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kevin Barker 2007 · MLB	32	45	52→55	43→40	46	232/294/400	168	288	19	5	26%	8%	95	+0.9	222/284/379	157	273	19	3	25%	8%	86	+0.3	244/309/410	165	282	17	1	20%	8%	102	+1.0
✕Matt Szczur 2021 · MLB	32	46→56	48→45	44→55	48	233/294/379	146	281	16	8	23%	8%	89	+0.5	212/262/356	144	280	17	9	30%	6%	72	-0.7	137/170/266	130	167	18	0	32%	4%	15	-0.9
✕John Rodriguez 2009 · MLB	31	46→47	49→55	45→40	47	231/307/380	149	293	16	4	26%	8%	95	+1.0	216/284/363	147	264	16	5	24%	7%	83	+0.1	201/269/347	146	240	16	2	24%	6%	72	-0.3
✕Jon Weber 2010 · AAA	32	48→53	47→50	41→50	45	237/292/381	144	291	14	8	23%	7%	89	+0.5	227/283/339	112	282	9	10	22%	7%	76	-0.4	214/266/283	69	264	2	10	19%	6%	53	-0.9
✕Matt Clark 2019 · AAA	32	44→45	50→55	44→30	42	226/277/379	153	288	19	5	28%	6%	84	+0.1	233/294/419	186	283	23	6	26%	7%	99	+1.3	220/286/429	209	251	27	0	25%	8%	100	+0.7
✕Michael A. Taylor 2023 · MLB	32	50→54	46→55	46→60	45	248/305/370	122	314	15	10	25%	7%	91	+0.7	222/280/376	154	300	20	16	31%	7%	84	+0.1	201/260/365	164	275	21	20	34%	7%	75	-0.3
✕Tagg Bozied 2011 · AAA	32	47→46	51→55	43→45	45	239/298/404	166	295	19	6	26%	7%	97	+1.1	222/297/394	172	310	19	6	33%	8%	95	+0.9	176/273/377	201	251	23	0	38%	10%	79	-0.1
✕Chad Huffman 2018 · MLB	33	43→52	48→50	48→45	48	219/299/368	149	264	15	8	23%	8%	90	+0.6	223/295/372	149	284	17	6	27%	7%	88	+0.5	214/284/365	151	271	19	0	28%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Mark Payton 2024 · MLB	32	46→51	46→55	50	48	228/285/361	133	262	12	13	19%	7%	82	-0.0	238/291/355	117	292	10	9	21%	7%	82	+0.0	243/295/350	107	298	8	5	20%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Daniel Palka 2023 · AAA	31	42→43	51→55	44→50	45	219/280/375	156	275	20	4	28%	8%	84	+0.1	211/266/349	138	275	17	6	29%	7%	72	-0.7	185/238/306	121	238	16	4	29%	6%	49	-1.7
✕Chris Richard 2006 · MLB	32	47→52	47→55	47→50	45	235/294/374	138	288	15	8	24%	7%	88	+0.4	226/293/389	163	278	19	9	25%	7%	92	+0.7	220/290/395	175	270	21	8	26%	7%	92	+0.5
✕Ben Gamel 2024 · MLB	32	48→58	47→50	44→50	53	234/318/375	140	297	14	8	25%	10%	97	+1.1	223/311/359	136	312	13	6	30%	11%	92	+0.7	204/300/329	125	300	11	4	33%	11%	78	-0.1
✕Izzy Alcantara 2006 · AAA	33	47	50→55	44→45	49	239/307/392	153	279	18	8	21%	8%	97	+1.1	231/303/388	157	273	19	7	22%	9%	95	+1.0	220/296/376	156	256	20	4	22%	9%	88	+0.2
✕Ryan Mulhern 2013 · AAA	32	46→49	51→55	43→40	41	237/290/395	158	300	19	6	27%	6%	92	+0.7	232/286/384	152	288	17	8	25%	5%	88	+0.5	220/269/388	167	252	20	3	22%	3%	84	+0.0
✕Nick Martini 2023 · MLB	33	47→57	45→50	46→45	48	229/310/351	121	293	12	7	25%	8%	89	+0.5	222/301/372	150	271	16	3	24%	8%	91	+0.7	211/294/352	141	254	15	0	23%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Travis Ishikawa 2016 · MLB	32	46→50	46→55	47→45	43	227/291/356	129	304	14	3	29%	7%	83	+0.1	205/266/328	123	292	15	4	33%	6%	68	-1.0	178/239/286	108	254	15	0	35%	5%	47	-2.0
✕Yadiel Hernandez 2020 · AAA	32	48→54	53→55	43→45	46	250/306/412	163	304	22	7	26%	8%	101	+1.4	252/305/415	163	309	21	7	25%	7%	102	+1.5	264/313/408	144	313	19	4	22%	6%	103	+0.9
✕Jeff Bailey 2011 · MLB	32	45→48	47→55	49→45	48	224/301/362	138	273	14	5	23%	8%	88	+0.5	212/284/341	129	268	12	8	25%	7%	78	-0.3	193/269/321	128	242	12	7	25%	8%	64	-1.1
✕Paul McAnulty 2012 · MLB	31	45→51	50→55	41→40	45	232/282/387	156	273	19	4	23%	6%	87	+0.4	221/289/393	172	269	21	5	26%	8%	91	+0.7	192/276/377	185	223	24	1	26%	10%	83	+0.1
✕Yoshi Tsutsugo 2023 · MLB	31	42→41	49→50	39→30	52	216/299/359	143	271	18	2	27%	10%	87	+0.4	224/310/364	140	307	16	7	30%	11%	93	+0.8	208/312/349	140	296	16	5	32%	12%	87	+0.2

Billy McKinney

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps