Billy McKinney — OGILVIE

Billy McKinneyLF Round Rock Express

Age 31 L/L 6'0" / 205 lbs AAA Svc 8.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 350 proj PA

wRC+†95

AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .301 / .391

PA350

HR12

K%26

BB%9

ISO169

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT45

Whiff%

3313.0%

xwOBA

660.327

POWER50

Barrel%

6410.3

Avg EV

4188.4

Bat Spd

4070.3

EYE55

Chase%

7327.2%

SPEED45

Sprint

3626.8

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 8.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.0	$0.0M	-$0.9M
Totals		$1.0M		$0.0M	-$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2013	18	ROK	AZL Athletics	—	206	187	45	5	1	2	11	42	4	7	0	241	297	310	607	70	293	20	5	262	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	ROK	AZL Athletics	—	206	181	58	7	2	2	17	29	4	7	0	320	391	414	805	94	364	14	8	358	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A+	Daytona Cubs	—	543	485	105	21	5	10	42	155	8	6	3	216	290	342	632	126	290	29	8	279	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A+	Daytona Cubs	—	543	466	123	24	6	11	61	100	8	6	3	264	359	412	771	148	309	18	11	343	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	AA	2 teams	—	433	391	102	26	2	7	30	83	3	0	2	261	318	391	710	130	308	19	7	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	AA	2 teams	—	433	377	113	31	3	7	44	60	3	0	2	300	377	454	831	154	334	14	10	363	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	491	450	98	17	3	4	35	126	4	4	6	218	280	296	576	78	292	26	7	259	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	491	426	105	19	4	4	59	97	4	4	6	246	344	338	682	92	309	20	12	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA	3 teams	—	583	528	127	32	6	14	31	136	8	3	1	241	293	403	696	163	289	23	5	294	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA	3 teams	—	583	509	141	34	8	17	50	110	8	3	1	277	351	475	826	198	314	19	9	355	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA	3 teams	—	459	421	82	16	5	17	35	126	2	2	1	195	260	378	637	183	233	27	8	276	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA	3 teams	—	459	413	95	19	7	22	43	109	2	2	1	230	306	470	775	240	258	24	9	339	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB	2 teams	—	430	386	84	21	5	15	35	105	4	1	3	218	289	415	704	197	257	24	8	307	93	-3	-1	-5	-5	+12	-0.2
2019	24	MLB	2 teams	—	430	380	89	22	5	16	41	98	4	1	3	234	315	445	760	211	271	23	10	332	112	+6	-1	-5	-5	+12	0.7
2021	26	MLB	2 teams	—	315	280	56	14	3	10	32	86	1	2	0	200	284	379	663	179	247	27	10	285	76	-8	+0	+1	-3	+9	-0.2
2021	26	MLB	2 teams	—	315	280	55	14	3	9	32	85	1	2	0	196	281	364	645	168	245	27	10	288	79	-8	+0	+1	-3	+9	-0.1
2022	27	AAA	2 teams	—	350	314	62	9	5	9	29	121	6	2	0	197	278	344	622	146	286	35	8	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA	2 teams	—	350	303	79	14	5	13	40	99	6	2	0	261	358	469	827	208	344	28	11	366	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA	2 teams	—	307	271	61	8	1	13	31	78	4	4	1	225	314	406	720	181	265	25	10	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA	2 teams	—	307	263	66	8	1	15	39	71	4	4	1	251	356	460	816	209	287	23	13	362	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA	3 teams	—	215	188	44	7	0	5	21	69	4	1	3	234	324	351	675	117	336	32	10	306	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA	3 teams	—	215	177	49	9	0	5	32	55	4	1	3	277	399	412	811	136	370	26	15	367	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA	2 teams	—	406	369	73	15	3	11	34	102	3	6	3	198	271	344	615	146	242	25	8	274	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA	2 teams	—	406	358	85	15	3	12	45	93	3	6	3	237	328	397	724	159	289	23	11	326	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	31	MLB	TEX	—	350	312	71	13	2	12	31	90	4	4	1	228	305	397	703	170	274	26	9	310	95	-2	+0	-0	-4	+10	0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	32	MLB	TEX	33%	342	306	67	12	2	11	30	89	3	4	1	219	295	379	674	160	269	26	9	303	90	-4	+0	-4	-4	+10	-0.1
2028	33	MLB	TEX	46%	312	278	59	10	1	10	28	83	3	3	1	212	291	363	655	151	262	27	9	295	84	-6	+0	-4	-3	+9	-0.5
2027	32	MLB	TEX	33%	112	100	23	4	1	4	10	29	1	1	0	230	306	410	716	180	270	26	9	298	86	-2	+0	-1	-1	+3	-0.1
2028	33	MLB	TEX	46%	143	128	28	5	1	5	13	38	1	1	0	219	296	391	686	172	264	27	9	289	79	-3	+0	-2	-2	+4	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1216	1088	229	47	7	43	109	321	8	6	2	210	287	385	672	175	254	26	9	295	84	-23	+0	-11	-29	+34	-2.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	123	25	4	23	58	172	4	3	1	211	287	387	674	175	255	26	9	295	84	-12	+0	-6	-16	+18	-1.6
Career	—			—	5742	5166	1136	226	44	150	455	1491	61	49	26	220	291	368	659	148	276	26	8	289	79	-135	-1	-16	-62	+163	-5.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	129	26	5	17	52	169	7	6	3	221	292	369	662	149	277	26	8	289	79	-15	+0	-2	-7	+18	-0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2013	18	ROK	AZL Athletics	—	206	181	58	7	2	2	17	29	4	7	0	320	391	414	805	94	364	14	8	358	132	+7	+1	—	—	+6	1.5
2014	19	A+	Daytona Cubs	—	543	466	123	24	6	11	61	100	8	6	3	264	359	412	771	148	309	18	11	343	120	+12	+0	—	—	+15	2.8
2015	20	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	308	274	78	26	1	3	27	47	1	0	0	285	351	420	771	135	329	15	9	338	117	+6	+0	—	—	+9	1.5
2015	20	A+	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	125	103	35	5	2	4	17	13	2	0	2	340	443	544	986	204	348	10	14	424	183	+12	-1	—	—	+4	1.5
2016	21	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	491	426	105	19	4	4	59	97	4	4	6	246	344	338	682	92	309	20	12	313	98	-1	-2	—	—	+14	1.1
2017	22	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	224	209	64	13	3	10	9	49	2	0	0	306	341	541	882	234	353	22	4	377	147	+12	+0	—	—	+6	1.9
2017	22	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	276	232	58	16	4	6	30	45	5	2	1	250	348	431	779	181	277	16	11	337	116	+5	+0	—	—	+8	1.3
2017	22	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	83	68	19	5	1	1	11	16	1	1	0	279	388	426	814	147	333	19	13	354	129	+3	+0	—	—	+2	0.5
2018	23	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	132	119	30	7	0	6	11	33	1	1	0	252	321	462	783	210	296	25	8	343	121	+3	+0	-2	-5	+4	0.0
2018	23	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	306	276	61	11	7	16	29	72	1	0	0	221	297	486	783	264	239	24	9	340	119	+6	+0	—	—	+9	1.5
2018	23	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	21	18	4	1	0	0	3	4	0	1	1	222	333	278	611	56	286	19	14	290	80	-0	-0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2019	24	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	276	251	54	14	1	12	19	73	2	0	2	215	276	422	698	207	250	26	7	303	90	-3	-1	-5	-5	+8	-0.6
2019	24	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	154	129	35	8	4	4	22	25	2	1	1	271	386	488	874	217	307	16	14	384	152	+9	-0	—	—	+4	1.3
2021	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	300	265	51	11	3	9	32	79	1	2	0	192	282	358	640	166	235	26	11	287	78	-8	+0	+1	-3	+8	-0.1
2021	26	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	15	15	4	3	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	267	267	467	733	200	444	40	0	317	101	+0	+0	—	—	+0	0.0
2022	27	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	57	52	5	1	0	1	4	16	0	0	0	96	161	173	334	77	111	28	7	156	-23	-8	+0	+1	-4	+2	-0.9
2022	27	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	293	251	74	13	5	12	36	83	6	2	0	295	396	530	926	235	397	28	12	406	169	+23	+0	—	—	+8	3.2
2023	28	MLB	New York Yankees	—	147	128	29	3	1	6	17	39	1	1	0	227	322	406	728	180	274	27	12	325	107	+1	+0	-2	-3	+4	-0.0
2023	28	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	160	135	37	5	0	9	22	32	3	3	1	274	388	511	899	237	298	20	14	397	162	+11	+0	—	—	+5	1.6
2024	29	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	28	25	5	1	0	0	2	13	1	0	0	200	286	240	526	40	417	46	7	251	50	-2	+0	+0	-2	+1	-0.3
2024	29	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	165	137	41	7	0	5	24	37	2	0	3	299	411	460	871	161	371	22	15	387	154	+10	-1	—	—	+5	1.4
2024	29	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	22	15	3	1	0	0	6	5	1	1	0	200	455	267	721	67	300	23	27	364	137	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2025	30	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	21	20	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	200	238	250	488	50	211	5	5	224	29	-2	+0	-0	-4	+1	-0.6
2025	30	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	385	338	81	14	3	12	44	92	3	6	3	240	332	405	738	166	295	24	11	332	112	+5	+0	—	—	+11	1.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	961	860	178	38	5	34	86	254	6	4	2	207	284	381	665	174	249	26	9	295	84	-17	+0	-8	-27	+27	-2.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	8	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
	/162	664	23	9	238	296	413	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	7	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
	/162	664	24	2	242	294	417	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	1,202	44	7	210	284	387	-13	-9	0.1	0.2
	/162	664	24	4	210	284	387	-7.1	-5.2	0.1	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Billy McKinney (OGILVIE)	31	45	50	45	55	224/301/391	168	274	12	4	26%	9%	95	+0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Yoshi Tsutsugo 2023 · MLB	31	44→43	51→50	39→30	52	225/307/380	155	281	19	2	27%	11%	95	+1.4	230/320/383	153	314	18	7	30%	11%	101	+1.8	216/328/374	158	307	19	5	32%	14%	99	+0.8
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2015 · MLB	31	44→48	51→55	44→50	49	226/296/394	168	267	19	5	23%	8%	93	+1.3	214/280/366	152	263	16	7	25%	8%	79	+0.3	160/214/281	121	200	11	4	26%	6%	28	-0.9
✕Daniel Palka 2023 · AAA	31	44	55	44→50	44	233/292/412	179	293	24	4	29%	8%	96	+1.5	222/276/377	155	292	20	6	30%	7%	81	+0.4	199/256/342	143	257	19	4	30%	7%	59	-0.8
✕Brad Nelson 2014 · AAA	31	43→48	50	45→50	46	224/283/378	154	269	19	4	25%	7%	84	+0.6	213/264/332	119	258	13	6	22%	6%	63	-0.9	185/232/266	81	219	9	0	20%	5%	32	-1.3
✕Jason Grabowski 2005 · MLB	29	45	52→50	47→40	50	236/308/403	167	287	21	5	26%	10%	101	+1.8	231/301/379	148	268	17	6	20%	9%	91	+1.1	218/289/352	134	247	16	2	19%	9%	74	-0.0
✕Paul McAnulty 2012 · MLB	31	46→50	52→60	41→40	45	238/289/404	166	277	21	4	23%	6%	92	+1.2	231/302/424	193	277	25	5	26%	9%	104	+2.0	208/298/429	221	235	30	1	27%	10%	103	+1.6
✕Valentino Pascucci 2010 · AAA	31	41→45	52→55	48→45	48	216/297/379	163	280	20	5	30%	10%	90	+1.0	216/297/382	166	300	21	3	33%	10%	91	+1.1	207/295/373	166	295	22	0	35%	10%	85	+0.5
✕Graham Koonce 2006 · AAA	31	43→41	54→55	43→30	45	228/291/402	174	277	23	3	27%	7%	94	+1.3	213/286/391	178	267	23	4	29%	8%	89	+1.0	191/275/374	183	232	24	2	29%	9%	78	+0.1
✕John Rodriguez 2009 · MLB	31	47	49→55	45→40	47	234/310/385	151	297	17	4	26%	8%	97	+1.5	221/290/372	151	270	17	5	24%	7%	85	+0.7	209/280/361	152	250	17	2	23%	6%	77	+0.1
●Cory Aldridge 2010 · AAA	31	47→50	53→55	41→45	42	241/292/417	176	306	21	4	28%	6%	97	+1.5	223/272/388	165	307	21	6	33%	6%	82	+0.5	214/280/387	173	293	27	5	36%	8%	84	+0.3
✕Jason Vosler 2023 · MLB	29	42→43	53→55	49→40	45	223/288/393	170	274	22	6	27%	7%	90	+1.0	215/275/384	169	275	21	6	29%	7%	82	+0.5	205/266/377	172	258	22	4	30%	7%	73	-0.1
✕John Mabry 2002 · MLB	31	44	52→60	45→30	44	230/297/395	165	287	20	5	27%	7%	95	+1.4	253/322/441	188	290	23	4	21%	8%	117	+2.9	267/338/465	198	300	26	1	20%	9%	119	+1.1
●Danny Dorn 2015 · AAA	31	40→47	53→55	48→45	43	217/273/387	170	267	22	6	28%	7%	82	+0.5	269/318/434	165	330	16	7	23%	6%	112	+2.6	329/374/516	187	397	15	3	20%	5%	155	+3.3
●Jon Singleton 2023 · AAA	31	37→47	54→55	47→45	53	199/303/376	178	278	22	5	35%	13%	92	+1.2	214/304/391	177	277	23	3	30%	11%	96	+1.5	203/294/371	168	257	23	1	29%	11%	84	+0.5
✕Mark Payton 2021 · MLB	29	46→53	52→55	45→50	47	238/297/410	172	282	20	10	23%	8%	98	+1.6	235/289/375	140	278	13	12	20%	7%	85	+0.7	240/295/371	131	286	11	10	19%	7%	84	+0.5
✕Matt Clark 2019 · AAA	32	45→49	54→60	44→30	42	236/287/415	179	296	23	5	29%	6%	95	+1.4	240/299/439	199	287	25	6	25%	7%	107	+2.2	234/300/461	228	264	30	0	24%	8%	115	+1.5
✕Michael Restovich 2010 · MLB	31	47→49	52→55	43→30	43	242/291/412	169	305	19	3	27%	6%	95	+1.4	214/265/338	124	304	13	4	32%	6%	65	-0.7	188/240/285	97	280	9	1	35%	6%	37	-1.1
✕Michael Saunders 2018 · MLB	31	45→52	51→55	42→55	47	232/297/401	169	289	18	3	26%	8%	95	+1.4	208/271/334	126	265	13	7	25%	8%	67	-0.5	125/198/178	54	167	4	7	26%	8%	-6	-1.4
✕Eric Munson 2008 · MLB	30	44→43	51→60	43→40	50	229/295/391	161	254	20	3	19%	8%	92	+1.2	214/290/354	140	256	16	3	22%	9%	81	+0.4	197/283/334	137	237	16	0	24%	9%	71	-0.1
✕Jarrett Parker 2019 · MLB	30	47→51	51→55	46→50	46	234/305/396	162	318	18	7	31%	9%	98	+1.6	211/301/376	165	313	20	6	36%	11%	91	+1.1	179/284/343	164	262	22	2	38%	12%	76	+0.0