Travis Blankenhorn

LF Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 30 L/R 6'1" / 237 lbs AA K +5%HR +4% Svc 6.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAROOKIEExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	26	AAAWSH	455	.262/.361/.517	23	0	80	—	.203/.284/.370
2023	26	MLBWSH	37	.161/.297/.258	1	0	67	-0.6
2024	27	AAAWSH	453	.238/.323/.499	26	2	65	—	.184/.252/.369
2024	27	MLBWSH	32	.129/.156/.161	0	0	-15	-0.9
2025	28	AA/ROKLAA	271	.184/.290/.350	9	0	30	—	.143/.219/.274
2026	29	No MLB games played
2027PROJMLE	30	MLBLAA	3	.205/.270/.363	0	0	78	-0.0
2028PROJ23% MLB	31	MLBLAA	45	.202/.267/.355	1	0	75	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.5 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 AA

ISO79

Chase%69

BB%61

wRC+51

wOBA46

K%34

CompsMichael Pérez (age 29) · Matt Skole (age 30) · Josh Lester (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .270 / .363

PA3

HR0

K%33

BB%6

BABIP262

ISO169

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2024

CONTACT30

xAVG

100.192

POWER50

Barrel%

102.1

Avg EV

1086.0

Bat Spd

7173.5

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED40

Sprint

2626.3

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2021

Service 6.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$1M		$-0.0M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2015	18	ROK	Elizabethton Twins	—	216	193	47	7	2	3	18	43	4	3	0	244	321	347	668	104	299	20	8	304	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	102	91	26	5	2	1	8	28	2	2	1	286	356	418	774	132	403	27	8	344	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	ROK	Elizabethton Twins	—	149	138	41	7	1	9	8	33	2	3	0	297	345	558	903	261	330	22	5	390	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	508	438	110	22	11	13	47	119	17	13	2	251	347	441	787	189	312	23	9	347	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+	Fort Myers Miracle	—	493	442	102	24	6	11	34	127	10	6	4	231	300	387	687	156	297	26	7	304	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	71	58	13	1	0	0	10	13	2	3	2	224	357	241	599	17	283	18	14	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	410	388	108	18	2	18	18	93	2	11	0	278	314	474	788	196	323	23	4	344	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+	Fort Myers Miracle	—	61	52	14	4	0	1	9	12	0	0	0	269	377	404	781	135	333	20	15	355	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	MLB	New York Mets	—	24	23	4	2	0	1	1	8	0	0	0	174	208	391	600	217	214	33	4	260	68	-1	+0	-1	+1	+1	-0.0
2021	24	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	229	195	48	11	0	10	31	66	2	3	2	246	355	456	812	210	317	29	14	360	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	369	329	88	20	0	15	32	88	6	10	1	267	343	465	808	198	322	24	9	357	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	37	31	5	0	0	1	6	6	0	0	0	161	297	258	555	97	167	16	16	267	67	-1	+0	+0	-5	+1	-0.6
2023	26	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	455	393	103	27	2	23	51	110	10	0	2	262	361	517	878	254	307	24	11	384	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	32	31	4	1	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	129	156	161	318	32	182	28	3	147	-15	-4	+0	-0	-5	+1	-0.9
2024	27	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	453	399	95	22	2	26	41	118	9	2	4	238	323	499	822	261	268	26	9	357	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	251	218	41	10	1	8	27	69	4	0	0	188	289	353	642	165	232	27	11	290	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	ROK	ACL Angels	—	20	16	2	0	0	1	3	3	1	0	0	125	300	312	613	188	83	15	15	291	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	93	85	13	3	0	2	8	23	0	0	0	153	226	259	485	106	183	25	9	224	38	-7	+0	-1	-10	+2	-1.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2015	18	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	216	200	37	5	1	2	11	61	4	3	0	185	242	250	492	65	258	28	5	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	102	93	23	4	2	1	6	38	2	2	1	247	307	366	673	118	388	37	6	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	149	141	32	5	1	7	5	47	2	3	0	227	264	426	689	199	271	32	3	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	508	451	89	16	9	10	34	166	17	13	2	197	279	339	618	142	273	33	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	493	450	84	20	5	8	26	178	10	6	4	187	247	307	554	120	275	36	5	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	410	395	92	13	2	14	11	110	2	11	0	233	257	382	640	149	285	27	3	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	61	55	13	4	0	1	6	18	0	0	0	236	311	364	675	127	323	30	10	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	24	23	4	2	0	1	1	8	0	0	0	174	208	391	600	217	214	33	4	268	68	-1	+0	-1	+1	+1	-0.0
2021	24	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	229	205	41	10	0	7	21	82	2	3	2	200	281	351	632	151	289	36	9	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	369	340	78	17	0	10	21	110	6	10	1	229	286	368	654	138	303	30	6	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	37	31	5	0	0	1	6	6	0	0	0	161	297	258	555	97	167	16	16	267	67	-1	+0	+0	-5	+1	-0.6
2023	26	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	455	408	83	19	2	15	36	135	10	0	2	203	284	370	654	167	260	30	8	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	32	31	4	1	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	129	156	161	318	32	182	28	3	146	-15	-4	+0	-0	-5	+1	-0.9
2024	27	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	453	412	76	18	2	18	28	148	9	2	4	184	252	369	621	184	228	33	6	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	251	228	33	9	1	6	17	83	4	0	0	145	217	272	489	127	190	33	7	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	ROK MLE	ACL Angels	—	20	17	2	0	0	1	2	4	1	0	0	118	250	294	544	176	62	20	10	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	216	200	37	5	1	2	11	61	4	3	0	185	242	250	492	65	255	28	5	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	Elizabethton Twins	—	216	193	47	7	2	3	18	43	4	3	0	244	321	347	668	104	299	20	8	304	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	251	234	54	9	3	7	11	85	4	5	1	231	277	385	662	154	329	34	4	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	251	229	67	12	3	10	16	61	4	5	1	293	349	502	852	210	358	24	6	371	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	508	451	89	16	9	10	34	166	17	13	2	197	279	339	618	142	282	33	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	508	438	110	22	11	13	47	119	17	13	2	251	347	441	787	189	312	23	9	347	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	564	515	95	23	5	9	29	204	12	9	6	184	245	301	546	117	282	36	5	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	564	500	115	25	6	11	44	140	12	9	6	230	308	370	678	140	295	25	8	302	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	471	450	105	17	2	15	17	128	2	11	0	233	264	380	644	147	291	27	4	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	471	440	122	22	2	19	27	105	2	11	0	277	322	466	788	189	324	22	6	346	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	253	228	45	12	0	8	22	90	2	3	2	197	274	355	629	158	282	36	9	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	253	218	52	13	0	11	32	74	2	3	2	239	341	450	791	211	306	29	13	351	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	369	340	78	17	0	10	21	110	6	10	1	229	286	368	654	138	308	30	6	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA RAW	Syracuse Mets	—	369	329	88	20	0	15	32	88	6	10	1	267	343	465	808	198	322	24	9	357	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	492	439	88	19	2	16	42	141	10	0	2	200	285	362	647	162	254	29	9	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	492	424	108	27	2	24	57	116	10	0	2	255	356	498	854	243	295	24	12	375	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	485	443	80	19	2	18	29	157	9	2	4	181	245	354	600	174	230	32	6	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	485	430	99	23	2	26	42	127	9	2	4	230	312	474	786	244	262	26	9	343	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AA MLE	2 teams	—	271	245	35	9	1	7	19	88	5	0	0	143	219	273	493	131	185	32	7	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AA RAW	2 teams	—	271	234	43	10	1	9	30	72	5	0	0	184	290	350	640	167	221	27	11	290	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	216	199	37	5	1	2	11	61	4	3	0	186	242	251	493	65	258	28	5	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	251	234	54	9	3	7	11	85	4	5	1	231	277	385	662	154	319	34	4	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	508	452	89	16	9	10	34	166	17	13	2	197	279	338	617	142	273	33	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	564	518	95	23	5	9	29	204	12	9	6	183	245	299	544	116	275	36	5	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	471	449	105	17	2	15	17	128	2	11	0	234	264	381	645	147	290	27	4	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	253	227	45	12	0	8	22	90	2	3	2	198	274	357	631	159	282	36	9	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	369	339	78	17	0	10	21	110	6	10	1	230	286	369	655	139	303	30	6	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	492	437	88	19	2	16	42	141	10	0	2	201	285	364	649	162	253	29	9	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	485	444	80	19	2	18	29	157	9	2	4	180	245	354	599	173	225	32	6	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AA MLE	2 teams	—	271	245	35	9	1	7	19	88	5	0	0	143	219	273	493	131	181	32	7	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	485	444	80	19	2	18	29	157	9	2	4	180	245	354	599	173	225	32	6	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AA MLE	2 teams	—	271	245	35	9	1	7	19	88	5	0	0	143	219	273	493	131	181	32	7	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	30	MLB MLE	LAA	2%	321	292	60	14	1	10	21	95	5	2	1	206	271	365	636	159	265	30	7	283	78	-9	+0	+0	-3	+7	-0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	30	MLB CTX	LAA	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	205	270	363	634	159	262	33	0	282	78	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	LAA	23%	197	179	37	8	1	6	13	59	3	0	0	203	269	356	625	153	263	30	7	279	75	-6	+0	-3	-2	+4	-0.7
2028	31	MLB CTX	LAA	23%	45	41	8	2	0	1	3	13	1	0	0	202	267	355	623	153	260	29	7	278	75	-1	+0	-1	-0	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	138	126	21	5	0	3	11	36	1	0	0	167	239	278	517	111	207	26	8	242	65	-8	+0	-2	-10	+3	-1.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	99	24	0	14	52	170	5	0	0	167	240	278	518	111	208	26	8	242	65	-39	+0	-8	-47	+14	-8.2
Career	—	MLE		—	4232	3866	773	161	27	113	258	1335	76	57	18	200	264	343	607	143	271	32	6	264	65	-17	+0	-4	-13	+10	-2.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	594	118	25	4	17	40	205	12	9	3	199	264	340	604	141	269	32	6	264	65	-25	+0	-5	-19	+14	-3.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 251 PAwOBA .284 → .214 (−69)K% 27.5% → 33.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.49%	÷1.011	×1.220	—	—	33.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.76%	÷1.020	×0.680	—	×0.958	6.87%
HBP% /PA	1.59%	—	×0.840	—	×0.958	1.28%
Singles /BIP	14.77%	÷1.048	×0.920	×0.954	×0.958	11.84%
Doubles /BIP	6.71%	÷0.929	×0.910	×0.954	×0.958	6.01%
Triples /BIP	0.67%	÷1.028	×0.880	×0.954	×0.958	0.53%
Home runs /BIP	5.37%	÷1.028	×0.800	—	×0.958	4.00%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 110, 2B 86, 3B 106, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.

Result: wOBA .284 → .214; ISO .165 → .129; BABIP .232 → .190. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Angels · 20 PAwOBA .284 → .200 (−84)K% 15.0% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.00%	÷0.969	×1.440	—	—	22.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.00%	÷1.082	×0.620	—	×0.940	8.08%
HBP% /PA	5.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	3.38%
Singles /BIP	7.69%	÷1.015	×0.820	—	×0.940	5.84%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.992	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.134	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.69%	÷0.873	×0.780	—	×0.940	6.46%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 103, 2B 98, 3B 127, K 94, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (9.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .284 → .200; ISO .188 → .160; BABIP .083 → .062. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAARochester Red Wings · 453 PAwOBA .347 → .265 (−83)K% 26.0% → 32.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.05%	÷0.958	×1.200	—	—	32.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.83%	÷0.969	×0.690	—	×0.992	6.23%
HBP% /PA	1.99%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.85%
Singles /BIP	16.01%	÷1.029	×0.930	×0.994	×0.992	14.28%
Doubles /BIP	7.83%	÷0.962	×0.830	×0.994	×0.992	6.66%
Triples /BIP	0.71%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.994	×0.992	0.59%
Home runs /BIP	9.25%	÷0.986	×0.700	—	×0.992	6.52%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 106, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 92, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .347 → .265; ISO .261 → .184; BABIP .268 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAARochester Red Wings · 455 PAwOBA .374 → .286 (−88)K% 24.2% → 29.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.18%	÷0.980	×1.200	—	—	29.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.99%	÷0.956	×0.690	—	×1.003	7.95%
HBP% /PA	2.20%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	2.07%
Singles /BIP	18.02%	÷0.996	×0.930	×1.010	×1.003	17.06%
Doubles /BIP	9.54%	÷1.137	×0.830	×1.010	×1.003	7.06%
Triples /BIP	0.71%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.010	×1.003	0.60%
Home runs /BIP	8.13%	÷1.058	×0.700	—	×1.003	5.40%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 99, 2B 127, 3B 130, K 96, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .374 → .286; ISO .254 → .171; BABIP .307 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASyracuse Mets · 369 PAwOBA .347 → .285 (−62)K% 23.8% → 29.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.85%	÷0.961	×1.200	—	—	29.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.40%	÷1.019	×0.690	—	×1.018	5.79%
HBP% /PA	1.63%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.56%
Singles /BIP	21.99%	÷0.953	×0.930	×0.998	×1.018	21.79%
Doubles /BIP	8.30%	÷0.951	×0.830	×0.998	×1.018	7.36%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.998	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.22%	÷1.033	×0.700	—	×1.018	4.29%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 91, 2B 90, 3B 100, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.

Result: wOBA .347 → .285; ISO .198 → .143; BABIP .322 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASyracuse Mets · 229 PAwOBA .351 → .278 (−72)K% 28.8% → 35.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.82%	÷0.966	×1.200	—	—	35.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.10%	÷1.006	×0.690	—	×1.033	9.28%
HBP% /PA	0.87%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.85%
Singles /BIP	20.93%	÷1.032	×0.930	×0.999	×1.033	19.46%
Doubles /BIP	8.53%	÷0.897	×0.830	×0.999	×1.033	8.14%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.986	×0.920	×0.999	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.75%	÷1.039	×0.700	—	×1.033	5.39%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 106, 2B 79, 3B 97, K 93, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .351 → .278; ISO .210 → .154; BABIP .317 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 410 PAwOBA .335 → .277 (−58)K% 22.7% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.68%	÷1.027	×1.220	—	—	26.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.15%	÷1.028	×0.680	—	×1.027	2.82%
HBP% /PA	0.49%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	0.42%
Singles /BIP	23.73%	÷0.970	×0.920	×0.950	×1.027	21.96%
Doubles /BIP	6.10%	÷1.160	×0.910	×0.950	×1.027	4.67%
Triples /BIP	0.68%	÷0.900	×0.880	×0.950	×1.027	0.65%
Home runs /BIP	6.10%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.027	5.01%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 94, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 105, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .335 → .277; ISO .196 → .155; BABIP .323 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Fort Myers Miracle · 61 PAwOBA .340 → .283 (−57)K% 19.7% → 29.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.67%	÷0.939	×1.420	—	—	29.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.11%	÷1.019	×0.750	—	×0.998	9.63%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.930	—	×0.998	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.50%	÷0.975	×0.920	—	×0.998	21.19%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷0.908	×0.960	—	×0.998	10.56%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	—	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.50%	÷1.362	×0.880	—	×0.998	1.61%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 172, 1B 95, 2B 82, 3B 80, K 88, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .340 → .283; ISO .135 → .109; BABIP .333 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Travis Blankenhorn (OGILVIE)	30	30	50	40	50	204/269/361	157	265	5	1	30%	7%	78	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael Pérez 2022 · MLB	29	34	50	40	46	188/261/337	149	236	18	4	29%	8%	68	-1.0	185/257/314	129	236	17	4	28%	8%	61	-1.5	167/242/278	111	213	15	1	29%	8%	47	-1.1
✕Matt Skole 2019 · AAA	30	37→40	47→50	46→40	44	194/259/328	134	252	15	4	29%	8%	65	-1.2	204/280/343	139	282	16	5	32%	9%	77	-0.3	186/273/327	141	252	19	0	33%	10%	71	-0.6
✕Josh Lester 2024 · MLB	30	37→44	51→55	47→40	38	203/247/362	159	257	20	5	30%	5%	69	-0.9	210/258/360	150	259	19	6	26%	6%	72	-0.7	195/243/346	151	226	20	2	24%	6%	62	-1.1
✕Darick Hall 2024 · MLB	29	42→39	53→55	46→40	44	225/283/392	167	273	22	4	27%	7%	89	+0.5	205/265/322	117	270	14	4	29%	7%	66	-1.1	182/244/273	91	243	12	1	29%	7%	44	-1.6
✕Daniel Palka 2023 · AAA	31	42→43	51→55	44→50	45	219/280/375	156	275	20	4	28%	8%	84	+0.1	211/266/349	138	275	17	6	29%	7%	72	-0.7	185/238/306	121	238	16	4	29%	6%	49	-1.7
✕Clint Coulter 2023 · AAA	30	42→43	50	43→40	41	220/282/374	154	273	18	5	26%	6%	84	+0.2	221/288/353	132	266	13	9	22%	6%	82	-0.0	201/273/314	113	238	10	9	20%	6%	64	-0.5
✕Yoshi Tsutsugo 2023 · MLB	31	42→41	49→50	39→30	52	216/299/359	143	271	18	2	27%	10%	87	+0.4	224/310/364	140	307	16	7	30%	11%	93	+0.8	208/312/349	140	296	16	5	32%	12%	87	+0.2
✕Norel González 2023 · AAA	29	44	49→50	40	42	227/281/372	145	285	17	6	26%	6%	83	+0.1	218/279/345	127	285	14	6	27%	7%	76	-0.4	193/264/302	109	251	12	2	27%	8%	57	-0.8
✕Ryan Fitzgerald 2023 · AAA	29	37→47	48→50	43→45	42	195/259/342	147	249	15	7	28%	6%	68	-1.0	202/267/339	137	270	14	9	29%	7%	70	-0.8	227/285/352	125	285	12	9	24%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Graham Koonce 2006 · AAA	31	42→40	53→55	43→30	45	224/287/395	171	272	22	3	27%	7%	91	+0.7	208/281/381	173	260	22	4	29%	8%	86	+0.3	183/264/359	175	222	23	2	29%	9%	74	-0.3
✕Brian Serven 2024 · MLB	29	36	46→50	47→30	40	192/246/313	121	248	15	4	29%	6%	57	-1.8	209/280/315	106	300	11	4	32%	8%	70	-0.8	212/290/326	114	302	11	1	31%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Brett Carroll 2013 · MLB	30	42→46	47→55	47→50	43	212/274/346	134	270	15	11	27%	6%	74	-0.5	204/269/335	131	275	16	10	30%	7%	70	-0.8	176/254/321	145	220	21	11	30%	8%	59	-0.9
✕René Rivera 2013 · MLB	30	41→31	46→55	42→30	44	209/261/339	130	249	14	3	23%	6%	68	-1.0	234/279/361	127	290	13	3	23%	5%	80	-0.2	234/286/387	153	297	23	0	29%	5%	89	+0.2
✕Jason Vosler 2024 · MLB	30	38→44	52→55	48→40	44	205/267/365	160	257	21	5	29%	7%	77	-0.3	221/277/382	161	278	19	6	27%	6%	84	+0.2	222/275/386	164	273	20	4	26%	6%	82	-0.0
✕Justin Leone 2007 · MLB	30	41→39	47→50	43→55	46	208/280/337	128	270	15	6	28%	8%	75	-0.5	200/278/342	142	262	16	16	29%	9%	76	-0.4	181/264/322	141	235	16	19	29%	10%	65	-0.8
✕Carlos Ibarra 2014 · AAA	30	46	48→50	37→40	38	238/271/375	137	289	17	4	25%	4%	80	-0.2	213/250/306	93	270	9	4	24%	4%	55	-1.9	198/233/260	62	254	5	1	23%	4%	37	-1.1
✕Andy Wilkins 2019 · MLB	30	33→43	52→55	51→45	42	187/251/348	161	240	21	6	32%	8%	68	-1.0	189/257/328	139	295	17	7	39%	8%	64	-1.3	125/205/230	105	209	15	0	46%	9%	23	-1.5
●Mike Ford 2022 · MLB	30	35→45	53→55	46→30	47	195/271/363	168	230	23	3	27%	8%	78	-0.3	215/298/375	160	261	20	4	25%	9%	91	+0.6	219/305/386	167	257	22	2	24%	10%	95	+0.5
✕Stewart Ijames 2017 · AA	28	38	52→60	43→45	39	202/261/367	165	279	20	5	35%	7%	75	-0.5	205/266/341	136	303	15	8	35%	7%	71	-0.8	169/234/307	138	253	17	6	39%	7%	50	-0.6
✕Simon Pond 2006 · MLB	29	43→42	49→50	47→45	41	220/273/365	146	288	17	8	30%	6%	79	-0.2	217/270/347	130	291	13	6	29%	7%	73	-0.6	206/261/330	124	275	11	3	28%	7%	65	-1.1