Mark Vientos

1B New York Mets

Age 27 R/R 6'3" / 185 lbs MLB H -5% Svc 3.593 · Ctrl thru 2029

Overview

MLB40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	24	AAANYM	133	.284/.376/.500	6	0	95	—	.233/.308/.383
2024	24	MLBNYM	454	.266/.325/.516	27	0	137	2.9
2025	25	AAANYM	26	.174/.269/.261	0	0	23	—	.167/.231/.250
2025	25	MLBNYM	463	.233/.292/.413	17	1	101	0.8
2026	26	MLBNYM	295	.212/.260/.394	13	0	84	-0.5
2027PROJ	27	MLBNYM	315	.240/.294/.450	15	1	111	0.6
2028PROJ92% MLB	28	MLBNYM	302	.238/.292/.445	14	0	109	0.4
2029PROJ92% MLB	29	MLBNYM	292	.236/.289/.439	14	0	106	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.593First FA2030

2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$2M2029Arb-3$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Avg EV77

Barrel%76

Bat Spd69

xwOBA61

Speed16

Form.246/.300/.460 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .247/.298/.460

CompsRenato Núñez (age 27) · Trevor Plouffe (age 27) · J.P. Arencibia (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 114111vR 101

AVG/OBP/SLG.240 / .294 / .450

PA315

HR15

K%25

BB%6

BABIP274

ISO207

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$7M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

xAVG

370.240

POWER60

Barrel%

7612.0

Avg EV

7790.9

Bat Spd

6973.4

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED40

Sprint

1625.8

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%25%·24% over 41 PA (60d) · proj 25%

BB%6%·7% over 41 PA (60d) · proj 6%

ISO.214·.216 over 37 AB (60d) · proj .213

BABIP.282·.231 over 26 BIP (60d) · proj .283

SLASH.246/.300/.460·proj .247/.298/.460

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 988 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

298

690

—

wRC+

122

104

◀L

wOBA

349

322

◀L

ISO

222

201

◀L

BABIP

341

280

◀◀L

26.5%

27.0%

—

BB%

5.4%

7.4%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.593 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$2M	+1.1	$9M	+$7M
2028	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-3	$2M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$11M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	17	ROK	Kingsport Mets	—	211	191	50	14	0	4	15	46	2	0	2	262	322	398	720	136	319	22	7	318	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK	Kingsport Mets	—	262	223	64	12	0	11	37	43	1	1	0	287	391	489	880	202	312	16	14	389	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	454	416	106	27	1	12	22	110	8	1	4	255	305	411	716	156	311	24	5	313	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	43	36	10	2	0	3	7	13	0	0	1	278	395	583	979	306	350	30	16	424	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	306	274	77	16	0	22	26	87	3	0	1	281	350	580	930	299	327	28	8	399	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	MLB	New York Mets	—	41	36	6	1	0	1	5	12	0	0	0	167	268	278	546	111	217	29	12	255	62	-2	+0	-1	+2	+1	0.0
2022	22	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	427	378	106	16	1	24	44	122	3	0	2	280	360	519	879	238	350	29	10	384	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB	New York Mets	—	233	218	46	5	1	9	10	71	3	1	0	211	255	367	622	156	264	30	4	275	76	-7	+0	-1	+2	+5	-0.1
2023	23	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	269	232	71	21	1	16	29	58	4	0	0	306	392	612	1.005	306	340	22	11	427	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB	New York Mets	—	454	413	110	22	0	27	33	135	3	0	0	266	325	516	841	249	324	30	7	363	137	+20	+0	-3	+2	+10	2.9
2024	24	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	133	116	33	5	1	6	16	38	1	0	0	284	376	500	876	216	375	29	12	387	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB	New York Mets	—	463	424	99	21	2	17	30	115	5	1	0	233	292	413	705	179	277	25	6	310	101	+0	+0	-5	+2	+10	0.8
2025	25	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	26	23	4	2	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	174	269	261	530	87	200	12	12	249	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB	New York Mets	—	295	274	58	11	0	13	15	71	3	0	0	212	260	394	654	182	233	24	5	287	84	-6	+0	-1	-6	+6	-0.5
2026	26	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	19	18	9	0	0	5	1	3	0	0	0	500	526	1.333	1.860	833	400	16	5	775	264	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1486	1365	319	60	3	67	93	404	14	2	0	234	289	429	719	196	278	27	6	315	99	-2	+0	-10	+2	+32	2.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	17	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	—	211	196	39	10	0	3	10	65	2	0	2	199	245	296	541	97	270	31	5	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	—	262	236	52	9	0	9	24	61	1	1	0	220	295	373	668	153	253	23	9	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	454	425	83	19	1	10	13	153	8	1	4	195	233	315	548	120	262	34	3	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	43	38	8	2	0	2	5	16	0	0	1	211	302	421	723	211	320	37	12	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	306	283	68	14	0	18	17	104	3	0	1	240	290	481	771	240	298	34	6	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	41	36	6	1	0	1	5	12	0	0	0	167	268	278	546	111	217	29	12	260	62	-2	+0	-1	+2	+1	0.0
2022	22	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	427	392	98	15	1	16	30	152	3	0	2	250	308	416	724	166	358	36	7	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	233	218	47	5	1	9	10	71	3	1	0	216	260	372	631	156	264	30	4	280	76	-7	+0	-1	+2	+5	-0.1
2023	23	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	269	239	64	20	1	11	22	72	4	0	0	268	340	498	838	230	324	27	8	359	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	454	413	113	23	0	27	33	135	3	0	0	274	332	525	857	252	324	30	7	370	137	+20	+0	-3	+2	+10	2.9
2024	24	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	133	120	28	4	1	4	12	47	1	0	0	233	308	383	692	150	361	35	9	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	463	424	102	22	2	17	30	115	5	1	0	241	298	422	721	182	277	25	6	317	101	+0	+0	-5	+2	+10	0.8
2025	25	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	26	24	4	2	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	167	231	250	481	83	180	15	8	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	295	274	60	12	0	13	15	71	3	0	0	219	267	405	672	186	233	24	5	293	84	-6	+0	-1	-6	+6	-0.5
2026	26	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	19	18	7	0	0	3	1	4	0	0	0	389	421	889	1.310	500	325	21	5	558	264	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	17	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	—	211	196	39	10	0	3	10	65	2	0	2	199	245	296	541	97	275	31	5	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	Kingsport Mets	—	211	191	50	14	0	4	15	46	2	0	2	262	322	398	720	136	319	22	7	318	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	—	262	236	52	9	0	9	24	61	1	1	0	220	295	373	668	153	257	23	9	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	Kingsport Mets	—	262	223	64	12	0	11	37	43	1	1	0	287	391	489	880	202	312	16	14	389	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	454	425	83	19	1	10	13	153	8	1	4	195	233	315	548	120	270	34	3	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	—	454	416	106	27	1	12	22	110	8	1	4	255	305	411	716	156	311	24	5	313	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	349	321	77	16	0	20	22	121	3	0	2	240	295	477	771	237	311	35	6	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AA RAW	2 teams	—	349	310	87	18	0	25	33	100	3	0	2	281	355	581	936	300	330	29	9	402	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	468	428	104	16	1	17	35	164	3	0	2	243	305	404	709	161	349	35	7	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	468	414	112	17	1	25	49	134	3	0	2	271	352	498	850	227	339	29	10	372	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	502	457	112	25	2	21	32	143	7	1	0	245	304	446	751	201	304	28	6	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	502	450	117	26	2	25	39	129	7	1	0	260	329	493	822	233	305	26	8	356	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	587	533	142	28	1	31	45	182	4	0	0	266	328	497	825	231	342	31	8	356	127	+19	+0	-3	+2	+13	3.1
2024	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	587	529	143	27	1	33	49	173	4	0	0	270	337	512	849	242	335	29	8	368	127	+19	+0	-3	+2	+13	3.1
2025	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	489	448	105	24	2	17	32	119	5	1	0	234	293	411	703	176	278	24	7	311	97	-2	+0	-5	+2	+11	0.6
2025	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	489	447	103	23	2	17	33	118	5	1	0	230	291	405	696	174	272	24	7	307	97	-2	+0	-5	+2	+11	0.6
2026	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	314	292	67	12	0	16	16	75	3	0	0	229	277	435	711	205	250	24	5	309	95	-2	+0	-1	-6	+7	-0.1
2026	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	314	292	67	11	0	18	16	74	3	0	0	229	277	452	729	223	241	24	5	316	95	-2	+0	-1	-6	+7	-0.1
2017	17	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	—	211	197	39	10	0	3	10	65	2	0	2	198	245	294	540	96	270	31	5	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	—	262	235	52	9	0	9	24	61	1	1	0	221	295	374	669	153	253	23	9	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	454	430	83	19	1	10	13	153	8	1	4	193	233	312	545	119	262	34	3	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	349	321	77	16	0	20	22	121	3	0	2	240	295	477	771	237	301	35	6	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	468	427	104	16	1	17	35	164	3	0	2	244	305	405	710	162	346	35	7	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	502	458	112	25	2	21	32	143	7	1	0	245	304	445	750	201	296	28	6	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	587	533	142	28	1	31	45	182	4	0	0	266	328	497	825	231	333	31	8	356	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	489	449	105	24	2	17	32	119	5	1	0	234	293	410	703	176	272	24	7	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	314	292	67	12	0	16	16	75	3	0	0	229	277	435	711	205	239	24	5	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	587	533	142	28	1	31	45	182	4	0	0	266	328	497	825	231	333	31	8	356	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	489	449	105	24	2	17	32	119	5	1	0	234	293	410	703	176	272	24	7	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	314	292	67	12	0	16	16	75	3	0	0	229	277	435	711	205	239	24	5	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	27	MLB MLE	NYM	100%	424	391	97	19	1	21	26	106	4	2	1	247	301	460	761	213	283	25	6	332	111	+5	+0	+1	-8	+9	1.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	27	MLB CTX	NYM	100%	315	290	69	13	1	15	19	79	3	1	0	240	294	450	744	210	274	25	6	325	111	+4	+0	+0	-6	+7	0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	NYM	92%	328	302	75	15	1	16	20	82	3	0	0	245	298	455	754	210	282	25	6	329	109	+3	+0	-0	-6	+7	0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	NYM	92%	317	292	71	14	1	15	19	81	3	0	0	242	295	449	744	206	280	26	6	325	106	+2	+0	-1	-6	+7	0.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	NYM	92%	309	285	69	14	1	14	18	80	3	0	0	239	291	440	732	201	278	26	6	320	103	+1	+0	-2	-6	+7	0.1
2031	31	MLB MLE	NYM	92%	290	269	62	12	0	13	17	76	2	0	0	234	286	429	715	195	274	26	6	313	98	-1	+0	-2	-5	+6	-0.2
2032	32	MLB MLE	NYM	92%	267	248	57	11	0	12	15	71	2	0	0	228	279	415	694	187	268	27	6	304	92	-3	+0	-3	-5	+6	-0.5
2033	33	MLB MLE	NYM	92%	235	218	48	9	0	10	13	64	2	0	0	220	270	397	666	177	261	27	6	293	84	-4	+0	-4	-4	+5	-0.7
2028	28	MLB CTX	NYM	92%	302	278	66	13	1	14	18	76	3	0	0	238	292	445	738	207	273	25	6	322	109	+3	+0	-0	-5	+7	0.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	NYM	92%	292	269	64	12	1	14	18	74	3	0	0	236	289	439	728	203	271	25	6	318	106	+2	+0	-1	-5	+6	0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	NYM	92%	284	263	61	12	0	13	17	73	2	0	0	233	285	431	716	198	269	26	6	313	103	+1	+0	-2	-5	+6	0.0
2031	31	MLB CTX	NYM	92%	267	247	56	11	0	12	16	70	2	0	0	228	280	420	700	192	265	26	6	307	98	-1	+0	-2	-5	+6	-0.2
2032	32	MLB CTX	NYM	92%	246	228	50	9	0	11	14	65	2	0	0	222	273	406	679	184	259	26	6	298	92	-2	+0	-3	-4	+5	-0.4
2033	33	MLB CTX	NYM	92%	216	200	43	8	0	9	12	59	2	0	0	214	264	388	652	174	252	27	6	287	84	-4	+0	-4	-4	+5	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3093	2850	659	125	5	140	188	821	28	2	0	231	285	426	711	195	272	27	6	312	96	-2	+0	-21	-27	+67	1.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	599	138	26	1	29	40	173	6	0	0	230	285	422	708	192	272	27	6	312	96	-0	+0	-5	-6	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	5697	5240	1234	248	11	239	350	1616	54	5	10	235	290	424	714	188	290	28	6	310	96	+2	+1	-22	-35	+77	2.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	598	140	28	1	27	40	184	6	1	1	234	289	420	709	186	288	28	6	310	96	+0	+0	-4	-6	+14	0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASyracuse Mets · 19 PAwOBA .749 → .558 (−191)K% 15.8% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.79%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	18.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.26%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.003	3.64%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.67%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×1.003	24.87%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×1.003	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	33.33%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.003	23.40%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .749 → .558; ISO .833 → .574; BABIP .400 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASyracuse Mets · 26 PAwOBA .243 → .202 (−41)K% 11.5% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.54%	÷0.981	×1.200	—	—	14.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.54%	÷1.005	×0.690	—	×1.018	8.06%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	10.00%	÷0.975	×0.930	—	×1.018	9.71%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.022	×0.830	—	×1.018	8.27%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.959	×0.970	—	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.167	×0.700	—	×1.018	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 95, 2B 104, 3B 92, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .243 → .202; ISO .087 → .073; BABIP .200 → .180. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASyracuse Mets · 133 PAwOBA .376 → .308 (−68)K% 28.6% → 35.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.57%	÷0.968	×1.200	—	—	35.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.03%	÷0.933	×0.690	—	×1.033	9.19%
HBP% /PA	0.75%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.73%
Singles /BIP	26.92%	÷1.006	×0.930	×1.043	×1.033	26.83%
Doubles /BIP	6.41%	÷0.972	×0.830	×1.043	×1.033	5.90%
Triples /BIP	1.28%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.043	×1.033	1.49%
Home runs /BIP	7.69%	÷1.059	×0.700	—	×1.033	5.25%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 101, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 94, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.

Result: wOBA .376 → .308; ISO .216 → .154; BABIP .375 → .361. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASyracuse Mets · 269 PAwOBA .422 → .359 (−62)K% 21.6% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.56%	÷0.961	×1.200	—	—	26.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.78%	÷0.967	×0.690	—	×1.048	8.06%
HBP% /PA	1.49%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.46%
Singles /BIP	18.97%	÷0.997	×0.930	×1.022	×1.048	18.94%
Doubles /BIP	12.07%	÷0.933	×0.830	×1.022	×1.048	11.50%
Triples /BIP	0.57%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.022	×1.048	0.52%
Home runs /BIP	9.20%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×1.048	6.73%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 99, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .422 → .359; ISO .306 → .241; BABIP .340 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASyracuse Mets · 427 PAwOBA .373 → .314 (−59)K% 28.6% → 35.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.57%	÷0.961	×1.200	—	—	35.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.84%	÷1.019	×0.690	—	×1.050	6.99%
HBP% /PA	0.70%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.69%
Singles /BIP	25.39%	÷0.953	×0.930	×1.050	×1.050	27.31%
Doubles /BIP	6.25%	÷0.951	×0.830	×1.050	×1.050	6.01%
Triples /BIP	0.39%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.050	×1.050	0.42%
Home runs /BIP	9.38%	÷1.033	×0.700	—	×1.050	6.67%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 91, 2B 90, 3B 100, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .373 → .314; ISO .238 → .172; BABIP .350 → .358. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 306 PAwOBA .389 → .324 (−65)K% 28.4% → 34.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.43%	÷1.017	×1.220	—	—	34.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.84%	÷1.018	×0.690	—	×1.042	5.54%
HBP% /PA	0.98%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	0.87%
Singles /BIP	20.86%	÷1.045	×0.940	×1.019	×1.042	19.92%
Doubles /BIP	8.56%	÷1.053	×0.870	×1.019	×1.042	7.51%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.060	×0.920	×1.019	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	11.76%	÷0.995	×0.780	—	×1.042	9.61%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 109, 2B 111, 3B 112, K 103, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .389 → .324; ISO .299 → .242; BABIP .327 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASyracuse Mets · 43 PAwOBA .412 → .320 (−93)K% 30.2% → 37.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.23%	÷0.966	×1.200	—	—	37.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.28%	÷1.006	×0.690	—	×1.050	11.72%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.74%	÷1.032	×0.930	—	×1.050	20.56%
Doubles /BIP	8.70%	÷0.897	×0.830	—	×1.050	8.45%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.986	×0.920	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	13.04%	÷1.039	×0.700	—	×1.050	9.22%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 106, 2B 79, 3B 97, K 93, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .412 → .320; ISO .306 → .219; BABIP .350 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AColumbia Fireflies · 454 PAwOBA .310 → .237 (−73)K% 24.2% → 33.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.23%	÷0.963	×1.340	—	—	33.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.85%	÷1.134	×0.660	—	×1.030	2.90%
HBP% /PA	1.76%	—	×0.770	—	×1.030	1.40%
Singles /BIP	21.57%	÷1.026	×0.920	×0.950	×1.030	18.93%
Doubles /BIP	8.82%	÷1.038	×0.820	×0.950	×1.030	6.82%
Triples /BIP	0.33%	÷0.952	×0.940	×0.950	×1.030	0.32%
Home runs /BIP	3.92%	÷0.949	×0.820	—	×1.030	3.49%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 105, 2B 108, 3B 90, K 93, BB 127 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .310 → .237; ISO .156 → .121; BABIP .311 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Scott Spiezio'96-'07 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,412 PA	6.6	4,412	119	33	245*	318*	406*	-34	-15	7.5	7.8
/162	664	18	5	-5.2	-2.3	1.1	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	5.1	3,366	155	5	238	287	437	-26	-21	7.4	7.8
/162	664	30	1	-5.1	-4.2	1.5	pk7: 8
#2Scott Hairstonlast yr '14 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,624 PA	4.0	2,624	106	36	242	297	444	-18	-16	6.0	6.6
/162	664	27	9	-4.5	-4.1	1.5	pk7: 7
#3Cory Snyder'86-'94 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,933 PA	5.9	3,933	149	28	243*	290*	445*	-35	-18	4.7	5.7
/162	664	25	5	-5.9	-3.0	0.8	pk7: 7
#4Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#5Tom Grieve'70-'79 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,093 PA	3.2	2,093	65	7	250*	304*	448*	-32	-9	2.1	2.8
/162	664	21	2	-10.0	-2.8	0.7	pk7: 4
#6Wily Mo Peñalast yr '11 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,827 PA	2.8	1,827	83	12	250	304	445	-12	-32	2.5	2.5
/162	664	30	4	-4.3	-11.6	0.9	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Mark Vientos (OGILVIE)	27	50	60	40	40	245/298/456	211	283	15	1	25%	6%	111	+1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Renato Núñez 2021 · MLB	27	47→53	56→60	44→30	46	246/311/435	188	295	25	3	26%	8%	109	+2.0	234/304/429	195	287	26	5	28%	7%	106	+1.8	214/288/411	197	257	27	1	28%	6%	94	+0.6
●Trevor Plouffe 2013 · MLB	27	44→54	57→60	40→45	47	236/297/432	196	262	25	5	22%	7%	103	+1.6	249/311/417	168	289	19	3	20%	8%	105	+1.7	249/313/413	164	289	17	2	20%	8%	105	+1.6
✕J.P. Arencibia 2013 · MLB	27	41→49	59→65	46→30	41	229/279/438	209	270	28	3	28%	6%	99	+1.2	206/245/388	182	252	26	2	30%	4%	74	-0.5	192/225/369	177	233	27	0	32%	3%	61	-1.2
✕Devin Mesoraco 2015 · MLB	27	47→50	56→60	35→40	48	249/316/438	189	281	24	3	21%	8%	112	+2.2	231/311/393	162	270	19	6	22%	9%	100	+1.3	208/295/367	159	233	21	1	21%	9%	89	+0.2
✕Wilin Rosario 2014 · MLB	25	49→54	57→60	42→45	40	260/292/450	190	301	26	6	24%	4%	105	+1.7	253/284/410	157	298	18	5	22%	4%	93	+0.8	246/275/398	152	285	18	3	21%	3%	86	+0.2
✕Yasmany Tomás 2018 · MLB	27	48→54	57→60	41→40	42	255/297/453	198	302	26	4	25%	6%	108	+1.9	218/249/388	170	290	22	4	32%	4%	75	-0.5	200/224/359	160	270	21	3	35%	3%	56	-1.2
✕Gary Sánchez 2020 · MLB	27	38→48	66→65	42→45	49	227/307/472	245	248	36	3	26%	9%	117	+2.6	207/294/420	213	245	30	3	29%	10%	100	+1.3	221/325/412	190	258	26	0	25%	11%	110	+0.8
✕Ryon Healy 2019 · MLB	27	49→55	57→60	41→30	42	260/298/448	188	294	26	2	22%	5%	107	+1.9	244/297/431	187	279	23	5	22%	7%	103	+1.6	234/292/453	219	265	23	0	21%	7%	107	+0.6
●Willy Adames 2023 · MLB	27	47→54	59→60	44→50	47	250/313/463	213	307	27	7	28%	8%	116	+2.5	237/316/436	199	288	25	10	26%	10%	112	+2.2	231/320/430	199	277	26	11	26%	11%	112	+2.5
✕Paul DeJong 2020 · MLB	26	45→51	60→65	43→45	47	244/314/459	215	279	28	6	24%	8%	116	+2.5	219/298/403	184	261	25	7	26%	9%	97	+1.1	223/275/397	174	292	25	5	32%	5%	88	+0.3
✕Eric Munson 2006 · MLB	28	42→43	59→60	44→40	46	232/291/435	203	254	28	4	22%	7%	102	+1.5	220/286/380	160	250	20	4	21%	8%	87	+0.4	200/275/334	134	227	15	1	20%	8%	72	-0.3
●Shea Langeliers 2024 · MLB	26	40→48	57→65	47→45	42	222/280/419	197	271	26	5	29%	7%	94	+0.9	242/300/470	228	274	32	6	25%	7%	114	+2.3	249/308/484	235	273	34	6	23%	7%	121	+2.4
●Pedro Álvarez 2015 · MLB	28	43→48	61→65	47→45	46	237/300/452	215	281	31	6	28%	8%	109	+2.0	236/297/448	212	278	30	4	27%	8%	107	+1.9	228/284/435	207	266	30	2	27%	7%	99	+1.0
●Tony Batista 2001 · MLB	27	47	65	43→45	45	262/308/509	247	267	35	6	18%	6%	126	+3.2	243/288/445	202	254	27	5	17%	5%	103	+1.6	235/280/420	186	243	25	4	16%	5%	95	+1.1
✕Jake Fox 2010 · MLB	28	49→53	60	47→45	43	260/317/478	218	291	27	6	22%	6%	122	+2.9	233/289/407	174	268	20	3	21%	5%	95	+1.0	218/273/378	160	242	20	0	20%	5%	80	-0.1
●Karim Garcia 2004 · MLB	28	49	60	34→50	43	268/304/472	204	288	31	3	20%	5%	116	+2.5	242/286/408	166	268	22	7	19%	6%	93	+0.8	267/312/437	170	304	19	10	19%	6%	108	+1.0
●Ryan Jeffers 2024 · MLB	27	46→55	55→60	45→40	48	240/321/429	190	302	23	5	28%	9%	112	+2.2	248/330/428	180	287	21	4	21%	9%	114	+2.4	246/333/424	178	279	21	2	19%	10%	115	+1.8
●Hunter Renfroe 2019 · MLB	27	45→47	61→65	47→45	41	248/293/473	225	289	30	5	26%	5%	112	+2.2	230/295/473	243	263	34	6	27%	8%	113	+2.3	244/305/457	213	275	28	1	23%	8%	113	+2.1
✕Rowdy Tellez 2022 · MLB	27	47→53	57→60	43→45	47	249/310/450	201	281	26	3	22%	7%	112	+2.2	228/296/420	192	252	26	3	21%	8%	100	+1.3	221/291/406	185	244	26	1	22%	8%	96	+0.8
✕Tommy Joseph 2017 · MLB	26	46→48	58→60	40→30	44	250/296/447	198	270	27	3	20%	5%	107	+1.8	239/290/422	183	283	24	3	24%	6%	99	+1.2	232/284/416	184	274	24	1	25%	6%	95	+0.7

Mark Vientos

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps