J.P. Arencibia
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 28 | AAATEX | 203 | .279/.322/.542 | 14 | 1 | 68 | — | .205/.233/.385 | |
| 2014 | 28 | MLBTEX | 222 | .177/.241/.369 | 10 | 0 | 62 | 0.1 | ||
| 2015 | 29 | AAATB | 405 | .227/.261/.443 | 22 | 0 | 40 | — | .174/.199/.336 | |
| 2015 | 29 | MLBTB | 73 | .310/.319/.606 | 6 | 0 | 155 | 1.3 | ||
| 2016 | 30 | AAATB | 372 | .241/.270/.420 | 16 | 1 | 31 | — | .178/.202/.292 | |
| 2017 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2018 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2019 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2020 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2021 | 35 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2022 | 36 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 37 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 38 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 39 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 40 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 22 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 275 | 262 | 73 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 56 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 279 | 303 | 492 | 795 | 214 | 301 | 20 | 3 | 342 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 262 | 248 | 78 | 22 | 0 | 13 | 11 | 46 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 315 | 346 | 560 | 907 | 246 | 340 | 18 | 4 | 392 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | AAA | Las Vegas 51s | — | 500 | 466 | 110 | 32 | 1 | 21 | 26 | 114 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 236 | 285 | 444 | 729 | 208 | 267 | 23 | 5 | 319 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 37 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 189 | 343 | 532 | 200 | 136 | 30 | 5 | 234 | 44 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +9 | +1 | 0.8 |
| 2010 | 24 | AAA | Las Vegas 51s | — | 459 | 412 | 124 | 36 | 1 | 32 | 38 | 85 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 301 | 364 | 626 | 990 | 325 | 306 | 19 | 8 | 420 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 486 | 443 | 97 | 20 | 4 | 23 | 36 | 133 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 219 | 284 | 438 | 722 | 219 | 255 | 27 | 7 | 315 | 96 | -2 | -0 | -12 | +9 | +11 | 0.5 |
| 2012 | 26 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 372 | 347 | 81 | 16 | 0 | 18 | 18 | 108 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 233 | 277 | 435 | 712 | 202 | 281 | 29 | 5 | 310 | 94 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +7 | +8 | 1.3 |
| 2013 | 27 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 497 | 474 | 92 | 18 | 0 | 21 | 18 | 148 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 194 | 228 | 365 | 593 | 171 | 231 | 30 | 4 | 261 | 62 | -22 | -1 | +11 | +9 | +11 | 0.7 |
| 2014 | 28 | MLB | Texas Rangers | — | 222 | 203 | 36 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 62 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 177 | 241 | 369 | 610 | 192 | 195 | 28 | 5 | 270 | 62 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +8 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2014 | 28 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 203 | 190 | 53 | 8 | 0 | 14 | 10 | 53 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 279 | 322 | 542 | 864 | 263 | 315 | 26 | 5 | 374 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 73 | 71 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 310 | 319 | 606 | 925 | 296 | 364 | 30 | 1 | 395 | 155 | +5 | +0 | -2 | +9 | +2 | 1.3 |
| 2015 | 29 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 405 | 384 | 87 | 17 | 0 | 22 | 15 | 125 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 261 | 443 | 704 | 216 | 271 | 31 | 4 | 305 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 30 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 372 | 357 | 86 | 16 | 0 | 16 | 9 | 104 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 241 | 270 | 420 | 690 | 179 | 294 | 28 | 2 | 303 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 1687 | 1573 | 333 | 67 | 4 | 80 | 85 | 484 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 212 | 260 | 412 | 672 | 200 | 248 | 29 | 5 | 294 | 85 | -30 | -1 | -4 | +49 | +37 | 5.1 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 22 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 275 | 264 | 65 | 12 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 68 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 246 | 266 | 417 | 682 | 170 | 280 | 25 | 2 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 262 | 252 | 68 | 20 | 0 | 11 | 7 | 65 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 270 | 292 | 480 | 772 | 210 | 318 | 25 | 3 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas 51s | — | 500 | 472 | 88 | 24 | 1 | 16 | 20 | 147 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 186 | 229 | 343 | 572 | 157 | 228 | 29 | 4 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 37 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 189 | 343 | 532 | 200 | 136 | 30 | 5 | 234 | 44 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +9 | +1 | 0.8 |
| 2010 | 24 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas 51s | — | 459 | 422 | 100 | 26 | 1 | 25 | 28 | 114 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 237 | 289 | 481 | 770 | 244 | 255 | 25 | 6 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 486 | 446 | 97 | 20 | 4 | 23 | 33 | 133 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 217 | 277 | 435 | 712 | 217 | 255 | 27 | 7 | 310 | 96 | -2 | -0 | -12 | +9 | +11 | 0.5 |
| 2012 | 26 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 372 | 348 | 81 | 16 | 0 | 18 | 17 | 108 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 233 | 274 | 434 | 708 | 201 | 281 | 29 | 5 | 308 | 94 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +7 | +8 | 1.3 |
| 2013 | 27 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 497 | 474 | 92 | 18 | 0 | 21 | 18 | 148 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 194 | 228 | 365 | 593 | 171 | 231 | 30 | 4 | 260 | 62 | -22 | -1 | +11 | +9 | +11 | 0.7 |
| 2014 | 28 | MLB MLE | Texas Rangers | — | 222 | 203 | 35 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 62 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 172 | 236 | 360 | 596 | 187 | 195 | 28 | 5 | 260 | 62 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +8 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2014 | 28 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 203 | 195 | 40 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 67 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 233 | 385 | 617 | 179 | 255 | 33 | 2 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | MLB MLE | Tampa Bay Rays | — | 73 | 71 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 310 | 319 | 606 | 925 | 296 | 364 | 30 | 1 | 397 | 155 | +5 | +0 | -2 | +9 | +2 | 1.3 |
| 2015 | 29 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 405 | 390 | 68 | 12 | 0 | 17 | 9 | 146 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 199 | 336 | 535 | 162 | 221 | 36 | 2 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 30 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 372 | 360 | 64 | 11 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 126 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 178 | 202 | 292 | 494 | 114 | 238 | 34 | 2 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 537 | 516 | 134 | 32 | 0 | 22 | 12 | 133 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 260 | 281 | 450 | 730 | 190 | 305 | 25 | 2 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 537 | 510 | 151 | 36 | 0 | 27 | 18 | 102 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 296 | 324 | 525 | 849 | 229 | 320 | 19 | 3 | 367 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas 51s | — | 500 | 472 | 88 | 24 | 1 | 16 | 20 | 147 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 186 | 229 | 343 | 572 | 157 | 232 | 29 | 4 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | AAA RAW | Las Vegas 51s | — | 500 | 466 | 110 | 32 | 1 | 21 | 26 | 114 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 236 | 285 | 444 | 729 | 208 | 267 | 23 | 5 | 319 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 496 | 457 | 105 | 27 | 1 | 27 | 30 | 125 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 230 | 282 | 470 | 752 | 241 | 251 | 25 | 6 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 496 | 447 | 129 | 37 | 1 | 34 | 40 | 96 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 289 | 351 | 604 | 955 | 315 | 294 | 19 | 8 | 406 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 486 | 446 | 97 | 20 | 4 | 23 | 33 | 133 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 217 | 277 | 435 | 712 | 217 | 253 | 27 | 7 | 310 | 96 | -2 | -0 | -12 | +9 | +11 | 0.5 |
| 2011 | 25 | MLB RAW | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 486 | 443 | 97 | 20 | 4 | 23 | 36 | 133 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 219 | 284 | 438 | 722 | 219 | 255 | 27 | 7 | 315 | 96 | -2 | -0 | -12 | +9 | +11 | 0.5 |
| 2012 | 26 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 372 | 348 | 81 | 16 | 0 | 18 | 17 | 108 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 233 | 274 | 434 | 708 | 201 | 280 | 29 | 5 | 308 | 94 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +7 | +8 | 1.3 |
| 2012 | 26 | MLB RAW | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 372 | 347 | 81 | 16 | 0 | 18 | 18 | 108 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 233 | 277 | 435 | 712 | 202 | 281 | 29 | 5 | 310 | 94 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +7 | +8 | 1.3 |
| 2013 | 27 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 497 | 474 | 92 | 18 | 0 | 21 | 18 | 148 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 194 | 228 | 365 | 593 | 171 | 231 | 30 | 4 | 260 | 62 | -22 | -1 | +11 | +9 | +11 | 0.7 |
| 2013 | 27 | MLB RAW | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 497 | 474 | 92 | 18 | 0 | 21 | 18 | 148 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 194 | 228 | 365 | 593 | 171 | 231 | 30 | 4 | 261 | 62 | -22 | -1 | +11 | +9 | +11 | 0.7 |
| 2014 | 28 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 425 | 398 | 76 | 14 | 0 | 20 | 15 | 129 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 191 | 237 | 377 | 614 | 186 | 222 | 30 | 4 | 264 | 65 | -18 | +0 | -1 | +8 | +9 | -0.2 |
| 2014 | 28 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 425 | 393 | 89 | 17 | 0 | 24 | 20 | 115 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 226 | 280 | 453 | 733 | 226 | 253 | 27 | 5 | 319 | 65 | -18 | +0 | -1 | +8 | +9 | -0.2 |
| 2015 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 478 | 461 | 90 | 15 | 0 | 23 | 10 | 168 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 217 | 377 | 595 | 182 | 245 | 35 | 2 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 478 | 455 | 109 | 20 | 0 | 28 | 16 | 147 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 240 | 270 | 468 | 738 | 229 | 285 | 31 | 3 | 319 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 30 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 372 | 360 | 64 | 11 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 126 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 178 | 202 | 292 | 494 | 114 | 240 | 34 | 2 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 30 | AAA RAW | Durham Bulls | — | 372 | 357 | 86 | 16 | 0 | 16 | 9 | 104 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 241 | 270 | 420 | 690 | 179 | 294 | 28 | 2 | 303 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 537 | 517 | 134 | 32 | 0 | 22 | 12 | 133 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 281 | 449 | 729 | 190 | 299 | 25 | 2 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas 51s | — | 500 | 470 | 88 | 24 | 1 | 16 | 20 | 147 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 187 | 229 | 345 | 574 | 157 | 228 | 29 | 4 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 496 | 460 | 105 | 27 | 1 | 27 | 30 | 125 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 228 | 282 | 467 | 749 | 239 | 246 | 25 | 6 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 486 | 446 | 97 | 20 | 4 | 23 | 33 | 133 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 217 | 277 | 435 | 712 | 217 | 255 | 27 | 7 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 372 | 349 | 81 | 16 | 0 | 18 | 17 | 108 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 232 | 274 | 433 | 707 | 201 | 281 | 29 | 5 | 308 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 497 | 473 | 92 | 18 | 0 | 21 | 18 | 148 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 195 | 228 | 366 | 594 | 171 | 231 | 30 | 4 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 425 | 398 | 76 | 14 | 0 | 20 | 15 | 129 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 191 | 237 | 377 | 614 | 186 | 224 | 30 | 4 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 478 | 462 | 90 | 15 | 0 | 23 | 10 | 168 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 217 | 377 | 594 | 182 | 243 | 35 | 2 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 30 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 372 | 358 | 64 | 11 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 126 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 179 | 202 | 293 | 495 | 115 | 238 | 34 | 2 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1687 | 1573 | 333 | 67 | 4 | 80 | 85 | 484 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 212 | 260 | 412 | 672 | 200 | 248 | 29 | 5 | 294 | 74 | -30 | -1 | -4 | +49 | +37 | 5.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 606 | 129 | 26 | 2 | 31 | 33 | 186 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 213 | 262 | 416 | 677 | 203 | 249 | 29 | 5 | 294 | 74 | -12 | -0 | -2 | +19 | +14 | 2.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4163 | 3932 | 827 | 177 | 6 | 180 | 161 | 1217 | 39 | 4 | 5 | 210 | 249 | 396 | 644 | 185 | 252 | 29 | 4 | 277 | 74 | -30 | -1 | -4 | +49 | +37 | 5.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 614 | 129 | 28 | 1 | 28 | 25 | 190 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 210 | 248 | 396 | 644 | 186 | 252 | 29 | 4 | 277 | 74 | -12 | -0 | -2 | +19 | +14 | 2.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2016 AAADurham Bulls · 372 PAwOBA .295 → .214 (−81)K% 28.0% → 33.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.96% | ÷0.994 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.42% | ÷1.082 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 1.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.34% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 1.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.34% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | ×0.960 | ×0.972 | 18.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.32% | ÷1.093 | ×0.830 | ×0.960 | ×0.972 | 4.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.960 | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.32% | ÷1.167 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.972 | 4.42% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 102, 2B 119, 3B 80, K 99, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.
Result: wOBA .295 → .214; ISO .179 → .117; BABIP .294 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAADurham Bulls · 405 PAwOBA .299 → .227 (−72)K% 30.9% → 36.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.86% | ÷1.025 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.70% | ÷1.148 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 2.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.53% | ÷1.025 | ×0.930 | ×0.968 | ×0.982 | 15.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.56% | ÷1.062 | ×0.830 | ×0.968 | ×0.982 | 4.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.968 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.49% | ÷1.039 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.982 | 6.75% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 105, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 105, BB 130 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .299 → .227; ISO .216 → .162; BABIP .271 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAARound Rock Express · 203 PAwOBA .360 → .269 (−91)K% 26.1% → 33.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.11% | ÷1.015 | ×1.290 | — | — | 33.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.45% | ÷1.033 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.992 | 2.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.99% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.992 | 0.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.63% | ÷0.984 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 19.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.84% | ÷1.055 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 4.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.953 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.22% | ÷1.027 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.992 | 7.70% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 97, 2B 111, 3B 91, K 103, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .360 → .269; ISO .263 → .185; BABIP .315 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 AAALas Vegas 51s · 459 PAwOBA .413 → .325 (−88)K% 18.5% → 24.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.52% | ÷0.959 | ×1.290 | — | — | 24.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.06% | ÷0.988 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.048 | 6.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.65% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.048 | 0.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.82% | ÷0.985 | ×0.900 | ×0.960 | ×1.048 | 15.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.01% | ÷1.077 | ×0.810 | ×0.960 | ×1.048 | 8.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.31% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.960 | ×1.048 | 0.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.79% | ÷1.024 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.048 | 7.81% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 97, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 92, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.
Result: wOBA .413 → .325; ISO .325 → .245; BABIP .306 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2009 AAALas Vegas 51s · 500 PAwOBA .311 → .245 (−66)K% 22.8% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.80% | ÷1.000 | ×1.290 | — | — | 29.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.050 | 3.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.050 | 1.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.91% | ÷1.000 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 14.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 7.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 0.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.97% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 4.89% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .311 → .245; ISO .208 → .158; BABIP .267 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2008 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 275 PAwOBA .337 → .290 (−47)K% 20.4% → 24.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.36% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 1.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.73% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.958 | ×1.042 | 21.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.958 | ×1.042 | 5.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 5.52% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .337 → .290; ISO .214 → .171; BABIP .301 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2008 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 262 PAwOBA .381 → .329 (−52)K% 17.6% → 24.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.56% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 24.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 2.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.38% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 0.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.999 | ×1.012 | 19.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.960 | ×0.999 | ×1.012 | 10.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.999 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 5.73% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .381 → .329; ISO .246 → .211; BABIP .340 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).