Robby Snelling — OGILVIE

Robby Snelling P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 23 LHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.7 · 2029 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 54 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8694vR 102

ERA3.62

FIP3.62

K%28.2%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%19.9%

ROS IP54

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5055

CTRL5555

CMD5055

K†6565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$10M
2029	Arb-1	$12M	+2.1	$14M	+$5M
2030	Arb-2	$21M	+2.4	$15M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-3	$30M	+2.3	$14M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$33M		$54M	+$15M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	104	416	118	34	4	100%	4.7	21.6%	9.4%	12.2%	1.3%	1.82	3.16	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	104	416	118	34	4	100%	4.7	28.4%	8.2%	20.2%	1.0%	1.82	2.31	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	115	508	115	45	17	100%	4.8	18.1%	10.0%	8.1%	3.7%	5.15	4.89	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	115	508	115	45	17	100%	4.8	18.1%	10.0%	8.1%	3.7%	5.15	4.89	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	115	508	115	45	17	100%	4.8	22.6%	8.9%	13.8%	3.3%	5.15	4.19	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	136	547	166	39	10	100%	5.4	25.3%	7.2%	18.1%	2.1%	2.51	3.02	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	136	547	166	39	10	100%	5.4	25.3%	7.2%	18.1%	2.1%	2.51	3.02	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	136	547	166	39	10	100%	5.4	30.3%	7.1%	23.2%	1.8%	2.51	2.48	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	34	132	46	19	3	100%	4.9	34.4%	12.3%	22.1%	2.0%	2.38	2.85	+0.9
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	34	132	46	19	3	100%	4.9	34.4%	12.3%	22.1%	2.0%	2.38	2.85	+0.9
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	34	132	46	19	3	100%	4.9	34.8%	14.4%	20.5%	2.3%	2.38	3.22	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	1	5	22	2	4	1	100%	5.0	9.1%	18.2%	-9.1%	4.5%	5.40	7.30	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	MIA	10	10	54	228	64	19	6	100%	5.4	28.2%	8.3%	19.9%	2.7%	3.62	3.62	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIA	27	27	152	640	180	51	17	100%	5.6	28.1%	7.9%	20.2%	2.7%	3.62	3.58	+2.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIA	29	29	171	724	203	56	20	100%	5.9	28.0%	7.7%	20.3%	2.7%	3.61	3.57	+2.8
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIA	29	29	175	739	206	57	20	100%	6.0	27.9%	7.7%	20.2%	2.7%	3.61	3.58	+2.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIA	29	29	172	728	202	57	20	100%	5.9	27.8%	7.8%	20.0%	2.8%	3.63	3.64	+2.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIA	28	28	167	706	195	56	20	100%	6.0	27.7%	7.9%	19.7%	2.9%	3.68	3.72	+2.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIA	27	27	160	674	185	55	20	100%	5.9	27.4%	8.2%	19.3%	3.0%	3.78	3.85	+2.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	MIA	25	25	150	634	172	54	20	100%	6.0	27.1%	8.5%	18.6%	3.2%	3.93	4.03	+1.6
2035	31	MLB MLE	MIA	23	23	140	591	158	52	20	100%	6.1	26.7%	8.8%	17.9%	3.4%	4.11	4.23	+1.1
2036	32	MLB MLE	MIA	22	22	130	547	143	50	20	100%	5.9	26.2%	9.2%	17.0%	3.7%	4.32	4.46	+0.7
2037	33	MLB MLE	MIA	20	20	119	502	129	48	20	100%	5.9	25.7%	9.7%	16.1%	4.0%	4.55	4.71	+0.3
2038	34	MLB MLE	MIA	18	18	108	456	115	46	19	100%	6.0	25.2%	10.2%	15.0%	4.3%	4.81	4.98	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	90	380	107	30	10	100%	5.6	28.1%	7.9%	20.2%	2.6%	3.55	3.51	+1.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIA	22	22	129	545	153	42	14	100%	5.9	28.0%	7.7%	20.3%	2.6%	3.54	3.50	+2.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIA	24	24	147	621	173	48	16	100%	6.1	27.9%	7.7%	20.2%	2.6%	3.54	3.51	+2.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIA	25	25	152	642	178	50	17	100%	6.1	27.8%	7.8%	20.0%	2.6%	3.55	3.56	+2.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIA	25	25	152	642	178	51	17	100%	6.1	27.7%	7.9%	19.7%	2.7%	3.60	3.64	+2.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIA	24	24	147	621	170	51	18	100%	6.1	27.4%	8.2%	19.3%	2.9%	3.70	3.77	+1.8
2034	30	MLB CTX	MIA	23	23	140	591	160	50	18	100%	6.1	27.1%	8.5%	18.6%	3.1%	3.84	3.94	+1.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	MIA	22	22	131	553	148	49	18	100%	6.0	26.7%	8.8%	17.9%	3.3%	4.02	4.14	+1.0
2036	32	MLB CTX	MIA	20	20	123	519	136	48	18	100%	6.2	26.2%	9.2%	17.0%	3.5%	4.22	4.36	+0.6
2037	33	MLB CTX	MIA	19	19	113	477	123	46	18	100%	5.9	25.7%	9.7%	16.1%	3.8%	4.44	4.60	+0.2
2038	34	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	98	414	104	42	17	100%	6.1	25.2%	10.2%	15.0%	4.1%	4.69	4.86	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		240	240	1427	6027	1632	510	182	100%	5.9	27.1%	8.5%	18.6%	3.0%	3.85	3.54	+23.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	845	229	71	26	100%	6.0	27.1%	8.5%	18.6%	3.0%	3.85	3.54	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		78	78	389	1603	366	146	38	100%	5.0	22.8%	9.1%	13.7%	2.4%	3.10	3.63	+18.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	40	200	824	188	75	20	100%	5.0	22.8%	9.1%	13.7%	2.4%	3.10	3.63	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Robby Snelling (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.62	28.2%	8.3%	2.7%	—	3.58	28.0%	20.3%	498	-0.04	—	—	—
Taylor Varnell L 2018 · 2.89 FIP	23	SP	2.89	22.5%	6.8%	1.5%	.252	3.95	19.5%	9.5%	202	+1.06	2.89	248	76
Cory Luebke L 2010 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP-	4.21	23.7%	7.9%	3.9%	.286	2.84	25.9%	18.7%	171	-1.37	2.80	216	74
Jake Eder L 2021 · 2.73 FIP	22	SP	2.73	27.9%	10.3%	1.2%	.253	4.97	20.7%	7.9%	156	+2.24	2.73	335	71
Joe Palumbo L 2018 · 3.22 FIP	23	SP	3.22	22.8%	6.0%	2.3%	.292	4.40	27.3%	16.0%	97	+1.18	1.40	234	71
James Paxton L 2013 · 3.09 FIP	24	SP	3.09	22.3%	5.3%	2.2%	.197	3.34	21.2%	14.3%	313	+0.25	2.46	1,022	70
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	70
Cliff Lee L 2003 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	21.0%	9.0%	3.3%	.243	4.34	17.2%	9.8%	582	+0.03	2.49	2,146	68
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.29	19.3%	13.9%	222	-0.12	3.22	285	68
Marc Rzepczynski L 2009 · 4.09 FIP	23	SP	4.09	23.0%	11.5%	2.7%	.268	3.94	20.5%	11.1%	172	-0.15	2.43	491	68
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	67
Austin Warner L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP	4.01	18.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.291	4.43	17.6%	9.4%	284	+0.42	3.81	491	66
Noah Cameron L 2022 · 2.96 FIP	23	SP	2.96	28.6%	7.7%	2.4%	.336	4.23	22.2%	14.5%	407	+1.27	2.96	644	66
Brandon Williamson L 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP	3.62	29.7%	9.0%	3.4%	.340	4.59	18.6%	7.3%	288	+0.97	3.62	454	66
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	65
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.09	501	65
Jacob Latz L 2019 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	23.0%	12.6%	1.1%	.222	5.12	22.8%	10.7%	149	+1.77	2.39	480	65
Sean Manaea L 2015 · 3.28 FIP	23	SP	3.28	23.2%	9.6%	1.7%	.345	4.05	19.4%	13.2%	482	+0.77	3.28	1,511	64
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	64
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.94	18.6%	8.6%	358	+0.67	4.18	539	64
Parker Mushinski L 2019 · 3.57 FIP	23	SP-	3.57	21.6%	8.2%	2.3%	.303	3.67	23.3%	13.3%	106	+0.10	3.03	459	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.5	142	27.2%	8.4%	1.21	3.91
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20
Chris Archer ('22)	6.8	151	25.4%	8.3%	1.09	3.93
Jake Odorizzi ('22)	6.3	139	22.2%	8.1%	1.23	3.99
Jon Gray ('25)	6.2	123	23.4%	7.8%	1.17	4.49
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Danny Salazar ('19)	3.0	118	27.7%	8.6%	1.14	3.82