Robby Snelling — OGILVIE

Robby Snelling P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 22 LHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.7 · 2029 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7989vR 98

ERA3.41

FIP3.41

K%25.8%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%17.7%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 99 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF4550

CTRL5555

CMD5055

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+1.0	$4M	+$4M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$9M	+$8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$9M	+$8M
2029	Arb-1	$10M	+1.4	$9M	+$1M
2030	Arb-2	$18M	+1.5	$9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$27M	+1.4	$8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$12M		$47M	+$21M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	19	MIX	3 levels	22	22	104	416	118	34	4	100%	4.7	21.6%	9.4%	12.2%	1.4%	1.82	3.22	—
2023	19	MIX	3 levels	22	22	104	416	118	34	4	100%	4.7	28.4%	8.2%	20.2%	1.0%	1.82	2.31	—
2024	20	MIX	2 levels	24	24	115	508	115	45	17	100%	4.8	18.1%	10.0%	8.1%	3.5%	5.15	4.77	—
2024	20	MIX	2 levels	24	24	115	508	115	45	17	100%	4.8	22.6%	8.9%	13.8%	3.3%	5.15	4.19	—
2025	21	MIX	2 levels	25	25	136	547	166	39	10	100%	5.4	25.6%	7.7%	17.9%	2.1%	2.51	3.06	—
2025	21	MIX	2 levels	25	25	136	547	166	39	10	100%	5.4	30.3%	7.1%	23.2%	1.8%	2.51	2.48	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	Miami Marlins	7	7	34	132	46	19	3	100%	4.9	35.2%	14.3%	20.9%	2.0%	2.38	3.04	+0.6
ROS	22	MLB	MIA	13	13	65	274	71	22	7	100%	5.0	25.8%	8.1%	17.7%	2.7%	3.41	3.41	+0.9
ROS	22	MLB	MIA	13	13	65	274	71	22	7	100%	5.0	25.8%	8.1%	17.7%	2.6%	3.37	3.37	+1.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB	MIA	—	—	99	406	117	41	10	—	—	28.7%	10.1%	18.6%	2.5%	3.06	3.28	+2.4
2026 FULL	22	MLB	MIA	—	—	70	295	117	41	10	—	—	39.6%	14.0%	25.6%	3.4%	4.29	3.41	+1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	MIA	27	27	144	608	148	48	17	100%	5.3	24.3%	7.8%	16.4%	2.7%	3.99	3.93	+2.5
2028	24	MLB	MIA	31	31	174	733	181	56	20	100%	5.6	24.7%	7.6%	17.1%	2.7%	3.92	3.86	+3.1
2029	25	MLB	MIA	30	30	175	739	184	55	20	100%	5.8	24.9%	7.5%	17.5%	2.7%	3.87	3.82	+3.2
2030	26	MLB	MIA	29	29	175	739	185	55	20	100%	6.0	25.1%	7.4%	17.6%	2.7%	3.84	3.81	+3.3
2031	27	MLB	MIA	29	29	172	728	182	55	20	100%	5.9	25.1%	7.5%	17.5%	2.8%	3.85	3.85	+3.1
2032	28	MLB	MIA	28	28	167	706	176	54	20	100%	6.0	24.9%	7.7%	17.3%	2.9%	3.90	3.93	+2.9
2033	29	MLB	MIA	27	27	160	674	166	53	21	100%	5.9	24.7%	7.9%	16.8%	3.0%	4.00	4.06	+2.5
2034	30	MLB	MIA	25	25	150	634	154	52	21	100%	6.0	24.3%	8.2%	16.1%	3.2%	4.15	4.24	+2.0
2035	31	MLB	MIA	23	23	140	591	141	50	20	100%	6.1	23.9%	8.5%	15.4%	3.5%	4.33	4.44	+1.6
2036	32	MLB	MIA	22	22	130	547	128	49	20	100%	5.9	23.5%	8.9%	14.5%	3.7%	4.53	4.67	+1.1
2037	33	MLB	MIA	20	20	119	502	115	47	20	100%	5.9	23.0%	9.4%	13.6%	4.0%	4.76	4.92	+0.7
2038	34	MLB	MIA	18	18	108	456	102	45	20	100%	6.0	22.4%	9.9%	12.5%	4.3%	5.02	5.19	+0.3
2039	35	MLB	MIA	16	16	97	410	89	43	19	100%	6.1	21.8%	10.4%	11.4%	4.6%	5.31	5.50	-0.2
2027	23	MLB	MIA	26	26	137	578	141	45	15	100%	5.3	24.3%	7.8%	16.4%	2.7%	3.95	3.89	+2.4
2028	24	MLB	MIA	29	29	165	697	172	53	19	100%	5.7	24.7%	7.6%	17.1%	2.7%	3.88	3.82	+3.1
2029	25	MLB	MIA	28	28	166	701	175	52	19	100%	5.9	24.9%	7.5%	17.5%	2.7%	3.83	3.78	+3.1
2030	26	MLB	MIA	28	28	166	701	176	52	19	100%	5.9	25.1%	7.4%	17.6%	2.7%	3.80	3.77	+3.2
2031	27	MLB	MIA	27	27	164	692	173	52	19	100%	6.1	25.1%	7.5%	17.5%	2.7%	3.81	3.81	+3.1
2032	28	MLB	MIA	26	26	159	671	167	51	19	100%	6.1	24.9%	7.7%	17.3%	2.8%	3.86	3.89	+2.8
2033	29	MLB	MIA	25	25	152	642	158	51	19	100%	6.1	24.7%	7.9%	16.8%	3.0%	3.95	4.01	+2.5
2034	30	MLB	MIA	24	24	143	604	147	49	19	100%	6.0	24.3%	8.2%	16.1%	3.2%	4.10	4.19	+2.0
2035	31	MLB	MIA	22	22	133	562	134	48	19	100%	6.0	23.9%	8.5%	15.4%	3.4%	4.28	4.39	+1.6
2036	32	MLB	MIA	20	20	123	519	122	46	19	100%	6.2	23.5%	8.9%	14.5%	3.6%	4.47	4.61	+1.1
2037	33	MLB	MIA	19	19	113	477	110	45	19	100%	5.9	23.0%	9.4%	13.6%	3.9%	4.70	4.86	+0.7
2038	34	MLB	MIA	16	16	98	414	93	41	17	100%	6.1	22.4%	9.9%	12.5%	4.2%	4.96	5.13	+0.3
2039	35	MLB	MIA	14	14	83	350	76	37	16	100%	5.9	21.8%	10.4%	11.4%	4.5%	5.24	5.43	-0.4
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			320	320	1871	7902	1916	649	244	100%	5.8	24.2%	8.2%	16.0%	3.1%	4.11	3.79	+35.3
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	845	205	69	26	100%	5.8	24.2%	8.2%	16.0%	3.1%	4.11	3.79	+3.8
Career	—			78	78	389	1603	368	151	38	100%	5.0	23.0%	9.4%	13.6%	2.4%	3.10	3.64	+8.0
/ 200 IP	—			40	40	200	824	189	78	19	100%	5.0	23.0%	9.4%	13.6%	2.4%	3.10	3.64	+4.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Robby Snelling (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.84	24.8%	7.7%	2.7%	—	3.87	24.7%	17.0%	493	+0.03	—	—	—
Taylor Varnell L 2027 · 2.89 FIP	23	SP	2.89	22.5%	6.8%	1.5%	.252	4.07	19.5%	9.5%	202	+1.18	2.89	248	83
Adam Seminaris L 2026 · 3.90 FIP	22	SP	3.90	22.7%	8.3%	3.0%	.357	3.75	18.2%	9.3%	230	-0.15	3.11	524	82
Connelly Early L 2026 · 3.30 FIP	22	SP	3.30	24.1%	9.8%	1.8%	.292	3.29	26.2%	17.0%	211	-0.01	2.52	315	82
Jake Bennett L 2026 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP	3.54	21.2%	7.2%	2.4%	.339	3.10	19.0%	12.8%	156	-0.44	2.79	219	82
Rodney Boone L 2026 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP	4.29	22.2%	7.2%	3.9%	.286	4.52	19.0%	9.7%	197	+0.23	3.74	311	82
Drew Parrish L 2027 · 3.53 FIP	23	SP-	3.53	24.1%	7.9%	2.7%	.261	6.22	16.8%	6.5%	354	+2.69	3.53	522	81
Will Dion L 2026 · 3.38 FIP	22	SP	3.38	22.7%	7.9%	2.2%	.285	4.06	20.6%	11.1%	332	+0.68	2.44	496	81
Tyler Skaggs L 2029 · 3.21 FIP	25	SP	3.21	26.1%	9.2%	2.1%	.300	3.81	23.0%	15.2%	290	+0.60	3.21	372	81
Jordan Wicks L 2026 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	23.5%	7.9%	3.2%	.329	4.07	21.1%	12.8%	278	+0.18	2.93	431	81
Anthony Veneziano L 2027 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP	4.24	24.9%	10.8%	3.4%	.298	5.19	18.7%	8.0%	358	+0.95	4.24	501	80
John Doxakis L 2026 · 3.21 FIP	22	SP	3.21	21.0%	5.3%	2.2%	.279	4.95	18.0%	5.1%	229	+1.74	3.21	332	80
Cade Povich L 2026 · 3.97 FIP	22	SP	3.97	23.9%	9.2%	3.1%	.293	3.99	23.8%	13.8%	414	+0.02	3.77	571	80
Reid Detmers L 2026 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	29.9%	9.1%	4.0%	.335	4.27	25.4%	16.6%	443	+0.32	2.84	690	80
Jake Eder L 2026 · 2.73 FIP	22	SP	2.73	27.9%	10.3%	1.2%	.253	5.07	20.8%	7.4%	156	+2.34	2.73	335	80
Jonathan Santucci L 2026 · 3.56 FIP	22	SP	3.56	22.6%	9.6%	2.1%	.294	3.49	24.7%	11.4%	80	-0.07	3.49	198	79
Brandon Williamson L 2027 · 3.75 FIP	23	SP	3.75	29.7%	9.0%	3.7%	.340	4.60	18.7%	7.1%	288	+0.85	3.75	414	79
Nick Zwack L 2027 · 3.10 FIP	23	SP	3.10	23.9%	9.3%	1.5%	.299	5.99	18.2%	8.4%	143	+2.89	3.10	271	79
Gage Jump L 2026 · 3.16 FIP	22	SP	3.16	22.6%	7.9%	1.8%	.286	3.32	26.1%	16.7%	87	+0.16	3.16	199	78
Logan Allen L 2026 · 3.82 FIP	22	SP	3.82	26.3%	6.8%	3.8%	.260	4.52	22.5%	12.9%	424	+0.70	3.82	772	78
Austin Warner L 2027 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	18.6%	8.1%	2.7%	.291	4.43	17.6%	9.4%	284	+0.37	3.88	491	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	14	142	24.2%	8.2%	1.23	4.17
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Chase Anderson ('24)	10	99	19.5%	8.1%	1.50	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	9	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98