Robby Snelling

P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 23 LHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 2.2 · 2030 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

AAASPIL-6040-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	24	24	115	5.15	4.19	22.6%	8.9%	—	K 18.1% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.89
2025	21	MIX2 levels	25	25	136	2.51	2.48	30.3%	7.1%	—	K 25.3% · BB 7.2% · FIP 3.02
2026	22	MIX2 levels	7	7	34	2.38	3.22	34.8%	14.4%	0.9	K 34.4% · BB 12.3% · FIP 2.85
2027PROJ	23	MLBMIA	6	6	34	3.60	3.60	28.2%	8.1%	0.7
2028PROJ77% MLB	24	MLBMIA	18	18	100	3.54	3.49	28.1%	7.8%	2.2
2029PROJ85% MLB	25	MLBMIA	20	20	119	3.53	3.48	28.1%	7.6%	2.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 5.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.831First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$10M2031Arb-2$16M2032Arb-3$23M

Career WAR0.1 WAR median (P10 -1.0 / P90 22, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 66%

CompsTaylor Varnell (age 23) · Cory Luebke (age 25) · Joe Palumbo (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8594vR 102

ERA3.60

FIP3.60

K%28.2%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%20.0%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$57M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.831 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.2	$16M	+$16M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.7	$19M	+$19M
2030	Arb-1	$10M	+2.8	$19M	+$12M
2031	Arb-2	$16M	+2.7	$17M	+$6M
2032	Arb-3	$23M	+2.5	$14M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$29M		$88M	+$54M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	104	416	118	34	4	100%	4.7	21.6%	9.4%	12.2%	1.3%	1.82	3.16	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	104	416	118	34	4	100%	4.7	28.4%	8.2%	20.2%	1.0%	1.82	2.31	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	115	508	115	45	17	100%	4.8	18.1%	10.0%	8.1%	3.7%	5.15	4.89	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	115	508	115	45	17	100%	4.8	18.1%	10.0%	8.1%	3.7%	5.15	4.89	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	115	508	115	45	17	100%	4.8	22.6%	8.9%	13.8%	3.3%	5.15	4.19	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	136	547	166	39	10	100%	5.4	25.3%	7.2%	18.1%	2.1%	2.51	3.02	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	136	547	166	39	10	100%	5.4	25.3%	7.2%	18.1%	2.1%	2.51	3.02	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	136	547	166	39	10	100%	5.4	30.3%	7.1%	23.2%	1.8%	2.51	2.48	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	34	132	46	19	3	100%	4.9	34.4%	12.3%	22.1%	2.0%	2.38	2.85	+1.1
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	34	132	46	19	3	100%	4.9	34.4%	12.3%	22.1%	2.0%	2.38	2.85	+1.1
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	34	132	46	19	3	100%	4.9	34.8%	14.4%	20.5%	2.3%	2.38	3.22	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	1	5	22	2	4	1	100%	5.0	9.1%	18.2%	-9.1%	4.5%	5.40	7.30	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	MIA	6	6	34	144	40	12	4	100%	5.7	28.2%	8.1%	20.0%	2.7%	3.60	3.60	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIA	23	23	130	550	155	43	15	100%	5.7	28.1%	7.8%	20.4%	2.7%	3.61	3.56	+2.9
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIA	24	24	140	591	166	45	16	100%	5.8	28.1%	7.6%	20.4%	2.7%	3.60	3.55	+3.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIA	24	24	142	599	167	45	16	100%	5.9	28.0%	7.6%	20.4%	2.7%	3.60	3.57	+3.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIA	23	23	139	586	163	45	16	100%	6.0	27.8%	7.6%	20.1%	2.8%	3.62	3.62	+3.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIA	22	22	134	565	156	44	16	100%	6.1	27.7%	7.8%	19.9%	2.9%	3.67	3.71	+2.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIA	21	21	126	533	146	43	16	100%	6.0	27.4%	8.0%	19.4%	3.0%	3.77	3.84	+2.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	MIA	19	19	116	490	133	41	16	100%	6.1	27.1%	8.3%	18.8%	3.2%	3.92	4.01	+1.9
2035	31	MLB MLE	MIA	17	17	104	441	118	38	15	100%	6.1	26.7%	8.7%	18.0%	3.4%	4.10	4.22	+1.5
2036	32	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	92	389	102	35	14	100%	6.1	26.2%	9.1%	17.1%	3.7%	4.30	4.44	+1.0
2037	33	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	80	336	86	32	13	100%	6.1	25.7%	9.5%	16.2%	4.0%	4.54	4.69	+0.7
2038	34	MLB MLE	MIA	11	11	68	286	72	29	12	100%	6.2	25.2%	10.0%	15.2%	4.3%	4.80	4.97	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIA	18	18	100	422	119	33	11	100%	5.6	28.1%	7.8%	20.4%	2.6%	3.54	3.49	+2.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIA	20	20	119	502	141	38	13	100%	6.0	28.1%	7.6%	20.4%	2.6%	3.53	3.48	+2.7
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIA	21	21	127	536	150	41	14	100%	6.0	28.0%	7.6%	20.4%	2.6%	3.53	3.50	+2.8
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIA	21	21	127	536	149	41	14	100%	6.0	27.8%	7.6%	20.1%	2.6%	3.54	3.54	+2.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIA	21	21	124	524	145	41	14	100%	5.9	27.7%	7.8%	19.9%	2.7%	3.59	3.63	+2.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIA	20	20	118	498	137	40	14	100%	5.9	27.4%	8.0%	19.4%	2.9%	3.69	3.76	+2.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	MIA	18	18	110	464	126	39	14	100%	6.1	27.1%	8.3%	18.8%	3.1%	3.83	3.92	+1.8
2035	31	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	99	418	112	36	14	100%	6.2	26.7%	8.7%	18.0%	3.3%	4.01	4.13	+1.4
2036	32	MLB CTX	MIA	15	15	88	372	97	34	13	100%	5.9	26.2%	9.1%	17.1%	3.5%	4.20	4.34	+1.0
2037	33	MLB CTX	MIA	13	13	76	321	83	31	12	100%	5.8	25.7%	9.5%	16.2%	3.8%	4.43	4.58	+0.6
2038	34	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	61	258	65	26	10	100%	6.1	25.2%	10.0%	15.2%	4.1%	4.68	4.85	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		194	194	1155	4878	1326	403	145	100%	6.0	27.2%	8.3%	18.9%	3.0%	3.80	3.48	+27.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	845	230	70	25	100%	5.9	27.2%	8.3%	18.9%	3.0%	3.80	3.48	+4.7
Career	—	MLE		78	78	389	1603	366	146	38	100%	5.0	22.8%	9.1%	13.7%	2.4%	3.10	3.63	+22.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	40	200	824	188	75	20	100%	5.0	22.8%	9.1%	13.7%	2.4%	3.10	3.63	+3.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 29 IPFIP 2.45 → 2.85 (+0.40)K% 40.0% → 34.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.00%	—	×0.860	34.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.64%	—	×0.900	12.27%
HR / BF /BF	1.82%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.45 → 2.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 72 IPFIP 2.74 → 3.38 (+0.64)K% 28.2% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.24%	—	×0.810	22.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.31%	—	×1.100	8.04%
HR / BF /BF	1.99%	÷1.103	×1.200	2.17%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 2.74 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 64 IPFIP 2.09 → 2.58 (+0.50)K% 32.9% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.93%	—	×0.860	28.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.91%	—	×0.900	6.22%
HR / BF /BF	1.63%	÷0.903	×1.100	1.98%

Result: FIP 2.09 → 2.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 109 IPFIP 4.18 → 4.89 (+0.71)K% 22.4% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.36%	—	×0.810	18.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.11%	—	×1.100	10.02%
HR / BF /BF	3.31%	÷1.064	×1.200	3.73%

Result: FIP 4.18 → 4.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 6 IPFIP 3.44 → 4.13 (+0.69)K% 28.0% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.00%	—	×0.860	24.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.00%	—	×0.900	3.60%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷0.925	×1.100	4.75%

Result: FIP 3.44 → 4.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ALake Elsinore Storm · 52 IPFIP 1.98 → 2.86 (+0.89)K% 29.6% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.65%	—	×0.740	21.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.53%	—	×1.180	7.71%
HR / BF /BF	1.01%	÷1.121	×1.300	1.17%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 1.98 → 2.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 35 IPFIP 2.10 → 2.97 (+0.87)K% 27.8% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.78%	—	×0.770	21.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.64%	—	×1.150	8.78%
HR / BF /BF	0.69%	÷0.848	×1.250	1.02%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 2.10 → 2.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AASan Antonio Missions · 17 IPFIP 3.39 → 4.33 (+0.94)K% 26.0% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.03%	—	×0.810	21.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.70%	—	×1.100	15.07%
HR / BF /BF	1.37%	÷0.820	×1.200	2.01%

Result: FIP 3.39 → 4.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Robby Snelling (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	3.56	28.0%	20.4%	412	-0.04	—	—	—
Taylor Varnell L 2018 · 2.89 FIP	23	SP	2.89	22.5%	6.8%	1.5%	.252	3.95	19.5%	9.5%	202	+1.06	2.89	248	76
Cory Luebke L 2010 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP-	4.21	23.7%	7.9%	3.9%	.286	2.84	25.9%	18.7%	171	-1.37	2.80	216	74
Joe Palumbo L 2018 · 3.22 FIP	23	SP	3.22	22.8%	6.0%	2.3%	.292	4.40	27.3%	16.0%	97	+1.18	1.40	234	71
Jake Eder L 2021 · 2.73 FIP	22	SP	2.73	27.9%	10.3%	1.2%	.253	4.97	20.7%	7.9%	156	+2.24	2.73	335	71
James Paxton L 2013 · 3.09 FIP	24	SP	3.09	22.3%	5.3%	2.2%	.197	3.34	21.2%	14.3%	313	+0.25	2.46	1,022	71
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	69
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.29	19.3%	13.9%	222	-0.12	3.22	285	68
Cliff Lee L 2003 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	21.0%	9.0%	3.3%	.243	4.34	17.2%	9.8%	582	+0.03	2.49	2,146	68
Marc Rzepczynski L 2009 · 4.09 FIP	23	SP	4.09	23.0%	11.5%	2.7%	.268	3.94	20.5%	11.1%	172	-0.15	2.43	491	67
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	66
Noah Cameron L 2022 · 2.96 FIP	23	SP	2.96	28.6%	7.7%	2.4%	.336	4.23	22.2%	14.5%	407	+1.27	2.96	644	66
Austin Warner L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP	4.01	18.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.291	4.43	17.6%	9.4%	284	+0.42	3.81	491	66
Brandon Williamson L 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP	3.62	29.7%	9.0%	3.4%	.340	4.59	18.6%	7.3%	288	+0.97	3.62	454	66
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	65
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.09	501	65
Jacob Latz L 2019 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	23.0%	12.6%	1.1%	.222	5.12	22.8%	10.7%	149	+1.77	2.39	480	64
Sean Manaea L 2015 · 3.28 FIP	23	SP	3.28	23.2%	9.6%	1.7%	.345	4.05	19.4%	13.2%	482	+0.77	3.28	1,511	64
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	63
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.94	18.6%	8.6%	358	+0.67	4.18	539	63
Parker Mushinski L 2019 · 3.57 FIP	23	SP-	3.57	21.6%	8.2%	2.3%	.303	3.67	23.3%	13.3%	106	+0.10	3.03	459	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.7	111	27.3%	8.2%	1.19	3.86
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Pete Richert ('62-'74, 13 WAR*)	5.8	90	24.4%*	8.8%*	1.26*	4.04*
Joe Hesketh ('84-'94, 10 WAR*)	4.8	87	23.2%*	8.8%*	1.07*	3.95*
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20
Bobby Bolin ('61-'73, 12 WAR*)	7.9	121	22.7%*	9.6%*	1.33*	4.11*
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20