Robby Snelling
P
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
+1.9
WAR
Age 22
LHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 3.0 · 2029
ERA4.03
FIP4.03
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.9%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%15.3%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
3.0peak
2029
OFP—50
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 22 | 22 | 104 | 416 | 118 | 34 | 4 | 21.6% | 9.4% | 1.2% | 1.82 | 3.14 | +2.5 |
| 2024 | 20 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 24 | 24 | 115 | 508 | 115 | 45 | 17 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 3.7% | 5.15 | 4.88 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 21 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 25 | 25 | 136 | 547 | 166 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 7.7% | 2.1% | 2.51 | 3.08 | +3.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 3 | 3 | 13 | 54 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 35.9% | 15.6% | 2.0% | 2.77 | 3.16 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | MIA | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 121 | 43 | 14 | 23.9% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 4.03 | +1.7 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 133 | 561 | 143 | 51 | 15 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.6% | 3.91 | 3.95 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | MIA | 26 | 26 | 144 | 610 | 149 | 50 | 16 | 24.4% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 3.98 | 3.93 | +2.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 30 | 30 | 164 | 693 | 172 | 55 | 19 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 3.92 | 3.86 | +2.7 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 32 | 32 | 178 | 752 | 188 | 58 | 20 | 25.0% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 3.87 | 3.82 | +3.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 32 | 32 | 178 | 752 | 189 | 58 | 20 | 25.1% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 3.84 | 3.81 | +3.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 32 | 32 | 177 | 747 | 188 | 58 | 20 | 25.2% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 3.83 | 3.82 | +3.0 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 32 | 32 | 174 | 736 | 185 | 57 | 20 | 25.1% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 3.84 | 3.85 | +2.9 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 31 | 31 | 170 | 719 | 180 | 57 | 20 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 3.87 | 3.89 | +2.7 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 30 | 30 | 165 | 698 | 173 | 56 | 20 | 24.8% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 3.92 | 3.96 | +2.5 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 29 | 29 | 159 | 673 | 165 | 54 | 20 | 24.5% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 3.99 | 4.03 | +2.3 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 28 | 28 | 153 | 646 | 157 | 53 | 19 | 24.3% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 4.07 | 4.12 | +2.0 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 27 | 27 | 146 | 617 | 148 | 52 | 19 | 24.0% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.16 | 4.22 | +1.8 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 25 | 25 | 139 | 586 | 138 | 51 | 19 | 23.6% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.26 | 4.33 | +1.5 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 24 | 24 | 131 | 552 | 128 | 49 | 18 | 23.2% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.37 | 4.45 | +1.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 74 | 74 | 368 | 1525 | 341 | 140 | 37 | 22.4% | 9.2% | 2.4% | 3.15 | 3.70 | +6.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 40 | 200 | 829 | 185 | 76 | 20 | 22.4% | 9.2% | 2.4% | 3.15 | 3.70 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Robby Snelling (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.03 | 23.9% | 8.5% | 2.7% | — | 3.87 | 24.8% | 16.8% | 487 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Will Dion L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.40 | 22.7% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .285 | 4.12 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 332 | +0.72 | 3.39 | 448 | 93 |
| Gage Jump L 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.19 | 22.6% | 7.9% | 1.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 113 | 91 |
| Drew Parrish L 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.45 | 24.1% | 7.9% | 2.5% | .261 | 5.90 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 354 | +2.45 | 3.45 | 522 | 91 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 89 |
| Jordan Wicks L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 23.5% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .329 | 4.15 | 21.1% | 12.8% | 278 | +0.30 | 3.00 | 373 | 88 |
| Nick Zwack L 2027 · 3.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.15 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 1.6% | .299 | 5.76 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 143 | +2.61 | 3.15 | 248 | 88 |
| Trey Dombroski L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.48 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 4.0% | .280 | 4.58 | 19.7% | 9.9% | 210 | +0.10 | 3.76 | 329 | 87 |
| Connelly Early L 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.34 | 24.1% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .292 | 2.66 | 27.5% | 17.6% | 139 | -0.68 | 2.56 | 243 | 87 |
| Cade Povich L 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.10 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .293 | 4.05 | 23.8% | 13.8% | 414 | -0.05 | 3.75 | 528 | 85 |
| A.J. Block L 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 85 |
| Rodney Boone L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.57 | 22.2% | 7.2% | 4.4% | .286 | 4.53 | 19.0% | 9.7% | 197 | -0.04 | 3.62 | 311 | 85 |
| Ben Shields L 2029 · 3.23 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.23 | 25.3% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .273 | 3.05 | 23.5% | 13.3% | 43 | -0.18 | 3.05 | 147 | 85 |
| David Parkinson L 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.06 | 21.4% | 8.4% | 1.3% | .277 | 4.39 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 197 | +1.33 | 3.06 | 517 | 85 |
| John Doxakis L 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.19 | 21.0% | 5.3% | 2.2% | .279 | 5.00 | 18.0% | 5.1% | 229 | +1.81 | 3.19 | 332 | 84 |
| Andrew Abbott L 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.36 | 26.0% | 10.9% | 2.0% | .336 | 3.86 | 23.8% | 15.7% | 468 | +0.50 | 3.36 | 606 | 84 |
| Ryan Smith L 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.53 | 22.5% | 6.9% | 4.5% | .293 | 5.49 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 104 | +0.96 | 4.53 | 233 | 84 |
| Jackson Kent L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 123 | 84 |
| Adam Seminaris L 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 3.1% | .357 | 3.74 | 18.2% | 9.3% | 230 | -0.21 | 3.01 | 453 | 84 |
| Logan Allen L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.68 | 26.3% | 6.8% | 3.5% | .260 | 4.50 | 22.5% | 12.9% | 424 | +0.82 | 2.86 | 706 | 83 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2027
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2032
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2027 | |||
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +2.2 | $18M | +$17M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +2.7 | $23M | +$22M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +3.0 | $26M | +$25M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $7M | +3.0 | $27M | +$20M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $11M | +3.0 | $28M | +$17M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $15M | +2.9 | $28M | +$12M |
| Totals | $35M | $150M | +$115M | ||