Robby Snelling — OGILVIE

Robby Snelling P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 22 LHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.3 · 2029 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8391vR 99

ERA3.46

FIP3.46

K%25.0%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%17.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$23M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF4550

CTRL5555

CMD5055

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$13M	+$12M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.0	$14M	+$13M
2029	Arb-1	$10M	+2.1	$13M	+$6M
2030	Arb-2	$18M	+2.1	$12M	+$0.6M
2031	Arb-3	$27M	+2.0	$11M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$30M		$63M	+$32M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	104	416	118	34	4	100%	4.7	21.6%	9.4%	12.2%	1.3%	1.82	3.16	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	104	416	118	34	4	100%	4.7	21.6%	9.4%	12.2%	1.3%	1.82	3.16	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	104	416	118	34	4	100%	4.7	28.4%	8.2%	20.2%	1.0%	1.82	2.31	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	115	508	115	45	17	100%	4.8	18.1%	10.0%	8.1%	3.7%	5.15	4.89	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	115	508	115	45	17	100%	4.8	18.1%	10.0%	8.1%	3.7%	5.15	4.89	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	115	508	115	45	17	100%	4.8	22.6%	8.9%	13.8%	3.3%	5.15	4.19	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	136	547	166	39	10	100%	5.4	24.9%	7.2%	17.7%	2.1%	2.51	3.06	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	136	547	166	39	10	100%	5.4	24.9%	7.2%	17.7%	2.1%	2.51	3.06	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	136	547	166	39	10	100%	5.4	30.3%	7.1%	23.2%	1.8%	2.51	2.48	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	1	5	22	2	4	1	100%	5.0	9.1%	18.2%	-9.1%	4.5%	5.40	7.30	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	7	7	34	132	46	19	3	100%	4.9	33.2%	12.3%	20.9%	2.0%	2.38	2.95	—
YTD	22	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	7	7	34	132	46	19	3	100%	4.9	33.2%	12.3%	20.9%	2.0%	2.38	2.95	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	AAA RAW	MIA	6	6	29	110	44	15	2	100%	4.8	40.0%	13.6%	26.4%	1.8%	1.86	2.45	—
2026	22	MLB RAW	MIA	1	1	5	22	2	4	1	100%	5.0	9.1%	18.2%	-9.1%	4.5%	5.40	7.13	—
SO FAR	22	MLB RAW	MIA	1	1	5	22	2	4	1	100%	5.0	9.1%	18.2%	-9.1%	4.5%	5.40	7.13	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	MIA	1	1	6	25	6	2	1	100%	5.9	25.0%	7.9%	17.2%	2.7%	3.46	3.46	+0.1
ROS	22	MLB CTX	MIA	1	1	6	25	6	2	1	100%	6.0	25.0%	7.9%	17.2%	2.6%	3.38	3.38	+0.1
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	40	157	52	21	4	—	—	33.3%	13.4%	19.9%	2.3%	2.54	3.02	+0.8
FULL	22	MLB A+C	MIA	—	—	11	46	52	21	4	—	—	113.3%	45.5%	67.9%	7.9%	9.25	3.62	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIA	30	30	161	680	162	53	19	100%	5.4	23.8%	7.8%	16.0%	2.8%	4.02	3.97	+1.8
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIA	31	31	175	739	179	56	20	100%	5.6	24.2%	7.5%	16.7%	2.7%	3.95	3.89	+2.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIA	30	30	177	748	183	55	20	100%	5.9	24.5%	7.4%	17.1%	2.7%	3.90	3.85	+2.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIA	30	30	177	748	184	55	21	100%	5.9	24.6%	7.4%	17.2%	2.7%	3.87	3.84	+2.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIA	29	29	174	737	181	55	21	100%	6.0	24.6%	7.4%	17.1%	2.8%	3.88	3.88	+2.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIA	28	28	169	715	175	54	21	100%	6.0	24.5%	7.6%	16.9%	2.9%	3.93	3.97	+1.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIA	27	27	162	683	165	53	21	100%	6.0	24.2%	7.8%	16.4%	3.0%	4.03	4.10	+1.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	MIA	25	25	152	642	153	52	21	100%	6.1	23.9%	8.1%	15.8%	3.2%	4.18	4.27	+1.1
2035	31	MLB MLE	MIA	24	24	142	598	140	51	21	100%	5.9	23.5%	8.5%	15.0%	3.5%	4.36	4.48	+0.7
2036	32	MLB MLE	MIA	22	22	131	554	127	49	21	100%	6.0	23.0%	8.9%	14.2%	3.7%	4.56	4.70	+0.3
2037	33	MLB MLE	MIA	20	20	120	508	114	47	20	100%	6.0	22.5%	9.3%	13.2%	4.0%	4.79	4.95	-0.1
2038	34	MLB MLE	MIA	18	18	110	462	102	45	20	100%	6.1	22.0%	9.8%	12.2%	4.3%	5.05	5.23	-0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIA	29	29	153	646	154	50	17	100%	5.3	23.8%	7.8%	16.0%	2.6%	3.94	3.89	+1.7
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIA	30	30	166	701	170	53	18	100%	5.5	24.2%	7.5%	16.7%	2.6%	3.87	3.81	+2.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIA	29	29	168	709	174	52	18	100%	5.8	24.5%	7.4%	17.1%	2.6%	3.82	3.77	+2.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIA	28	28	168	709	174	52	18	100%	6.0	24.6%	7.4%	17.2%	2.6%	3.79	3.76	+2.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIA	28	28	166	701	172	52	19	100%	5.9	24.6%	7.4%	17.1%	2.7%	3.80	3.80	+2.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIA	27	27	161	680	166	52	19	100%	6.0	24.5%	7.6%	16.9%	2.7%	3.85	3.89	+1.8
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIA	26	26	154	650	158	51	19	100%	5.9	24.2%	7.8%	16.4%	2.9%	3.95	4.02	+1.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	MIA	24	24	144	608	145	49	19	100%	6.0	23.9%	8.1%	15.8%	3.1%	4.09	4.18	+1.1
2035	31	MLB CTX	MIA	22	22	135	570	134	48	19	100%	6.1	23.5%	8.5%	15.0%	3.3%	4.26	4.38	+0.7
2036	32	MLB CTX	MIA	21	21	125	528	122	47	19	100%	6.0	23.0%	8.9%	14.2%	3.5%	4.46	4.60	+0.3
2037	33	MLB CTX	MIA	19	19	114	481	108	45	18	100%	6.0	22.5%	9.3%	13.2%	3.8%	4.68	4.84	-0.1
2038	34	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	99	418	92	41	17	100%	6.2	22.0%	9.8%	12.2%	4.1%	4.93	5.11	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		300	300	1764	7449	1777	599	221	100%	5.9	23.9%	8.0%	15.8%	3.0%	4.07	3.74	+24.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	845	201	68	25	100%	5.9	23.9%	8.0%	15.8%	3.0%	4.07	3.74	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		78	78	389	1603	362	146	38	100%	5.0	22.6%	9.1%	13.5%	2.4%	3.10	3.66	+15.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	40	200	824	186	75	20	100%	5.0	22.6%	9.1%	13.5%	2.4%	3.10	3.66	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Robby Snelling (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.88	24.2%	7.6%	2.7%	—	3.90	24.2%	16.6%	513	+0.02	—	—	—
Rodney Boone L 2022 · 4.51 FIP	22	SP	4.51	22.2%	7.2%	4.3%	.286	4.52	19.0%	9.7%	197	+0.01	3.64	311	86
Will Dion L 2022 · 3.40 FIP	22	SP	3.40	22.7%	7.9%	2.2%	.285	4.04	19.8%	11.3%	332	+0.64	3.09	526	86
Cade Povich L 2022 · 4.08 FIP	22	SP	4.08	23.9%	9.2%	3.3%	.293	4.05	23.3%	13.9%	414	-0.03	3.81	623	84
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.91	16.6%	6.8%	354	+2.44	3.47	522	84
John Doxakis L 2021 · 3.19 FIP	22	SP	3.19	21.0%	5.3%	2.2%	.279	4.95	17.9%	5.3%	229	+1.76	3.19	332	83
Jordan Wicks L 2022 · 3.83 FIP	22	SP	3.83	23.5%	7.9%	3.1%	.329	4.15	20.6%	12.8%	278	+0.32	2.97	469	83
Adam Seminaris L 2021 · 3.94 FIP	22	SP	3.94	22.7%	8.3%	3.1%	.357	3.75	18.2%	9.3%	230	-0.19	3.00	577	83
Nick Zwack L 2022 · 3.16 FIP	23	SP	3.16	23.9%	9.3%	1.6%	.299	5.73	18.2%	8.6%	143	+2.57	3.16	289	83
Adam Scott L 2019 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	20.7%	8.2%	3.3%	.318	4.94	21.9%	9.2%	136	+0.77	4.17	315	82
Kevin Smith L 2019 · 3.26 FIP	22	SP	3.26	21.2%	9.2%	1.4%	.337	5.78	21.5%	5.1%	131	+2.52	3.26	248	82
Logan Allen L 2021 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	26.3%	6.8%	3.5%	.260	4.53	22.4%	13.0%	424	+0.86	3.67	808	81
Tyler Thomas L 2018 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP	3.39	19.3%	7.3%	1.8%	.255	3.55	24.2%	14.6%	54	+0.16	2.67	279	81
David Parkinson L 2018 · 3.07 FIP	22	SP	3.07	21.4%	8.4%	1.3%	.277	4.39	18.2%	9.8%	197	+1.32	3.07	517	81
Andrew Abbott L 2022 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	26.0%	10.9%	2.0%	.336	3.92	23.6%	15.7%	468	+0.56	3.36	740	81
Zac Lowther L 2018 · 3.09 FIP	22	SP	3.09	23.6%	8.1%	1.8%	.265	3.95	21.0%	9.6%	208	+0.86	3.09	375	81
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.21	24.7%	17.0%	444	-0.70	3.02	566	81
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	81
Ryan Smith L 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP	4.55	22.5%	6.9%	4.5%	.293	5.43	18.1%	6.1%	104	+0.88	4.55	233	81
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	81
Tyler Skaggs L 2016 · 3.18 FIP	25	SP	3.18	26.1%	9.2%	2.1%	.300	3.72	23.0%	15.2%	290	+0.54	3.18	372	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.7	150	23.9%	8.0%	1.20	4.14
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12