Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | 27 | 12 | 89 | 378 | 114 | 44 | 4 | 44% | 3.3 | 22.3% | 13.7% | 8.6% | 1.5% | 2.33 | 3.75 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | 27 | 12 | 89 | 378 | 114 | 44 | 4 | 44% | 3.3 | 30.2% | 11.6% | 18.5% | 1.1% | 2.33 | 2.61 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 11 | 57 | 251 | 70 | 18 | 4 | 79% | 4.1 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 13.4% | 2.4% | 4.08 | 3.61 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 11 | 57 | 251 | 70 | 18 | 4 | 79% | 4.1 | 27.9% | 7.2% | 20.7% | 1.6% | 4.08 | 2.51 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 10 | 65 | 281 | 84 | 23 | 6 | 43% | 2.8 | 24.7% | 9.0% | 15.7% | 2.5% | 3.60 | 3.50 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 10 | 65 | 281 | 84 | 23 | 6 | 43% | 2.8 | 29.9% | 8.2% | 21.7% | 2.1% | 3.60 | 2.78 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 48 | 202 | 49 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 2.3% | 2.81 | 4.06 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 48 | 202 | 49 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 10.9% | 13.4% | 1.5% | 2.81 | 3.25 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 54 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.4% | 8.0% | 17.4% | 3.9% | 3.69 | 4.09 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 54 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 7.7% | 20.1% | 3.6% | 3.69 | 3.70 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 56 | 258 | 58 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 12.1% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 5.66 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 56 | 258 | 58 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | 5.66 | 3.80 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 46 | 0 | 50 | 223 | 66 | 31 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.0% | 14.6% | 11.4% | 0.8% | 3.78 | 3.21 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 46 | 0 | 50 | 223 | 66 | 31 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.6% | 13.9% | 15.7% | 0.9% | 3.78 | 2.84 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 26 | 6 | 40 | 165 | 40 | 16 | 7 | 23% | 1.5 | 21.3% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 4.7% | 3.60 | 5.15 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | COL | 60 | 0 | 64 | 268 | 60 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 13.4% | 9.1% | 2.6% | 4.56 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | COL | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 13.4% | 9.1% | 2.6% | 4.56 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | COL | — | — | 104 | 433 | 100 | 52 | 14 | — | — | 23.1% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 4.19 | 4.87 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | COL | — | — | 6 | 27 | 6 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 22.5% | 13.4% | 9.1% | 2.6% | 4.56 | 4.31 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | COL | 56 | 0 | 59 | 250 | 55 | 33 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.74 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | COL | 52 | 0 | 55 | 231 | 49 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 13.4% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 4.94 | 5.10 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | COL | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 20 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.74 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | COL | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 27 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 13.4% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 4.94 | 5.10 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 87 | 0 | 91 | 395 | 79 | 45 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 5.05 | 4.69 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 866 | 173 | 99 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 5.05 | 4.69 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 281 | 39 | 451 | 1952 | 444 | 217 | 46 | 14% | 1.6 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 2.4% | 3.61 | 3.89 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 125 | 17 | 200 | 865 | 197 | 96 | 21 | 14% | 1.6 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 2.4% | 3.61 | 3.89 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Parker Mushinski (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.69 | 22.5% | 13.4% | 2.6% | — | 4.99 | 21.5% | 8.1% | 114 | +0.30 | — | — | — |
| Adam Loewen L 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.90 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.58 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.32 | 2.96 | 176 | 82 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.13 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 2.0% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 145 | 81 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.73 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .271 | 2.91 | 21.8% | 17.1% | 88 | -0.82 | 2.35 | 306 | 79 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.58 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.4% | .284 | 3.34 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.24 | 1.32 | 182 | 78 |
| Héctor Santiago L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.4% | 12.4% | 3.4% | .299 | 4.70 | 22.5% | 11.9% | 154 | +0.08 | 4.40 | 713 | 77 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.48 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 172 | 77 |
| Keith Hessler L 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.73 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.0% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 228 | 76 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 76 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 76 |
| Dan Runzler L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.77 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.24 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.47 | 3.77 | 127 | 75 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.29 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .268 | 8.16 | 15.0% | -1.4% | 20 | +3.87 | 3.04 | 145 | 75 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.37 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 3.99 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.38 | 3.09 | 244 | 74 |
| Phil Coke L 2029 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 73 |
| Jeff Beliveau L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.55 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 3.9% | .261 | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 26 | -0.79 | 3.10 | 137 | 72 |
| James Jones L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.08 | 21.9% | 13.0% | 2.1% | .230 | 4.72 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 35 | +0.64 | 3.58 | 127 | 72 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.22 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 4.2% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 269 | 72 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.02 | 16.3% | 10.2% | 1.8% | .303 | 3.36 | 29.2% | 20.0% | 43 | -0.66 | 3.36 | 113 | 72 |
| Buddy Baumann L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.85 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 155 | 71 |
| Zack Britton L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.88 | 20.1% | 12.4% | 1.7% | .234 | 3.56 | 21.1% | 8.3% | 99 | -0.32 | 1.59 | 309 | 71 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 20.7% | 12.4% | 1.1% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 160 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 59 | 21.8% | 13.4% | 1.09 | 4.74 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |