Rainiel Rodriguez

C Springfield Cardinals
Age 20 R/R 5'10" / 197 lbs AA HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034
OGV OFP60OGV rank#4ETA2028MLB%12%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202417ROKSTL184.345/.478/.68310188—.209/.320/.366
202518A+/A/ROKSTL368.276/.403/.555204110—.230/.332/.450
202619AA/A+STL530.324/.418/.5742711131—.278/.357/.477
2027PROJ12% MLB20MLBSTL25.250/.330/.439101190.2
2028PROJ60% MLB21MLBSTL266.256/.338/.4591151261.9
2029PROJ76% MLB22MLBSTL338.260/.342/.4701561312.5
Next 3 projected WAR 4.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034
2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$8M2032Arb-2$13M2033Arb-3$19M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
wOBA97
wRC+94
ISO92
K%79
Whiff%59
Z-Con%50
Career WAR19 WAR median (P10 -1.6 / P90 29, comp-based) · star 6% · didn't stick 42%
CompsFrancisco Alvarez (age 20) · Andy Pages (age 21) · Junior Caminero (age 21)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†119
AVG/OBP/SLG.250 / .330 / .439
PA25
HR1
K%20
BB%8
BABIP283
ISO182
MLB%12%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +4.7 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+5BATRUN: -0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: -0.5 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-1FLDPOS: +3.8 runs (Positional adjustment)+4POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +1.40+1.4WAR
0.01.53.00.21.92.52.92.93.02.927282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$88M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+1.9$14M+$13M
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+2.5$17M+$17M
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+2.9$20M+$20M
2031Arb-1$8M+2.9$19M+$14M
2032Arb-2$13M+3.0$18M+$11M
2033Arb-3$19M+2.9$16M+$6M
Totals $42M $105M +$81M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202417 ROKDSL Cardinals — 184142 4912310 30256 11 3454786831.161 338345 1416 479 88 — — — — — —
202518 A+Peoria Chiefs — 1717 5100 020 00 294294353647 59333 120 288 51 — — — — — —
202518 APalm Beach Cardinals — 271225 5615113 38487 34 249374498872 249261 1814 384 100 — — — — — —
202518 ROKFCL Cardinals — 8059 22607 16153 11 3735268311.356 458385 1920 547 155 — — — — — —
202619 AASpringfield Cardinals — 402345 11322023 417710 76 3284145911.005 264359 1910 432 135 — — — — — —
202619 A+Peoria Chiefs — 128106 33814 19243 41 311430519949 208372 1915 420 118 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Cardinals — 184153 32824 19316 11 209320366686 157207 1710 299 88 — — — — — —
202518 A+ MLEPeoria Chiefs — 1717 5100 030 00 294294353647 59307 180 244 51 — — — — — —
202518 A MLEPalm Beach Cardinals — 271235 5114111 28657 34 217319426744 209242 2410 316 100 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEFCL Cardinals — 8065 17405 10223 11 262385554938 292282 2812 398 155 — — — — — —
202619 AA MLESpringfield Cardinals — 402356 10219019 309410 76 287359500859 213323 237 368 135 — — — — — —
202619 A+ MLEPeoria Chiefs — 128111 28613 14303 41 252352405757 153332 2311 343 118 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Cardinals — 184153 32824 19316 11 209320366686 157226 1710 299 88 — — — — — —
202417 ROK RAWDSL Cardinals — 184142 4912310 30256 11 3454786831.161 338345 1416 479 88 — — — — — —
202518 A MLE3 teams — 368317 7219116 389010 45 227329445774 218262 2410 330 110 — — — — — —
202518 A RAW3 teams — 368301 8322120 546510 45 276403555958 279288 1815 415 110 — — — — — —
202619 AA MLE2 teams — 530467 13125123 4412513 117 281359486845 206332 248 362 131 — — — — — —
202619 AA RAW2 teams — 530451 14630127 6010113 117 324418574992 251362 1911 429 131 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Cardinals — 184157 32824 19316 11 204320357677 153207 1710 299 88 — — — — — —
202518 A MLE3 teams — 368317 7219116 389010 45 227329445774 218254 2410 330 110 — — — — — —
202619 AA MLE2 teams — 530468 13125123 4412513 117 280359485844 205325 248 362 131 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Cardinals — 184157 32824 19316 11 204320357677 153207 1710 299 88 — — — — — —
202518 A MLE3 teams — 368317 7219116 389010 45 227329445774 218254 2410 330 110 — — — — — —
202619 AA MLE2 teams — 530468 13125123 4412513 117 280359485844 205325 248 362 131 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202720 MLB MLESTL 12% 615545 13827226 5212813 95 251331448779 197281 218 344 119 +14 -0 -1 +11 +13 1.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202720 MLB CTXSTL 12% 2522 5101 251 00 250330439769 189283 208 340 119 +1 +0 -0 +0 +1 0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202821 MLB MLESTL 60% 445394 10120120 39899 84 258339469807 211282 209 355 126 +14 +0 -1 +8 +10 3.1
202922 MLB MLESTL 76% 445393 10320121 40879 84 262343480824 218283 209 361 131 +16 +0 -1 +8 +10 3.4
203023 MLB MLESTL 82% 445393 10420122 40869 94 264346486832 222284 199 364 133 +17 +0 -1 +8 +10 3.5
203124 MLB MLESTL 82% 445393 10420122 40859 94 265347487834 222285 199 365 133 +18 +0 -0 +8 +10 3.6
203225 MLB MLESTL 82% 445393 10320121 41868 84 265347486832 221286 199 365 133 +17 +0 +0 +8 +10 3.6
203326 MLB MLESTL 82% 445393 10320121 41868 84 265347485832 221286 199 364 133 +17 +0 +0 +8 +10 3.6
203427 MLB MLESTL 80% 445393 10320121 41868 84 264346483828 219285 199 363 132 +17 +0 +0 +8 +10 3.5
203528 MLB MLESTL 80% 445393 10219121 41878 64 262344478821 216284 209 360 130 +16 -0 -1 +8 +10 3.3
203629 MLB MLESTL 77% 445393 10219121 41898 53 259341471812 212283 209 357 127 +15 -0 -1 +8 +10 3.1
203730 MLB MLESTL 76% 445394 10119120 40908 33 256337463800 207281 209 352 124 +13 -1 -2 +8 +10 2.8
203831 MLB MLESTL 76% 426378 9518119 38887 02 252332453785 201278 219 346 120 +10 -1 -3 +8 +9 2.4
203932 MLB MLESTL 75% 407361 8816117 36867 02 246326439765 193274 219 338 115 +7 -1 -3 +7 +9 1.9
204033 MLB MLESTL 75% 387344 8315116 34846 01 239318422740 183269 229 328 108 +4 -0 -4 +7 +8 1.5
204134 MLB MLESTL 71% 346309 7012013 29775 01 230308402710 172262 228 316 100 -0 -0 -5 +6 +7 0.9
204235 MLB MLESTL 66% 268240 539010 22624 00 220297380676 159254 238 302 91 -3 +0 -6 +5 +6 0.2
202821 MLB CTXSTL 60% 266235 6012111 23536 52 256338459796 202284 209 351 126 +8 +0 -1 +5 +6 1.9
202922 MLB CTXSTL 76% 338298 7816115 30667 63 260342470812 209285 209 357 131 +12 +0 -1 +6 +7 2.5
203023 MLB CTXSTL 82% 363320 8417116 33707 73 263344475819 212286 199 360 133 +14 +0 -0 +6 +8 2.9
203124 MLB CTXSTL 82% 364321 8417116 33707 73 264345477822 213287 199 361 133 +14 +0 -0 +7 +8 2.9
203225 MLB CTXSTL 82% 365322 8417116 33707 73 263345475820 212287 199 360 133 +14 +0 +0 +7 +8 3.0
203326 MLB CTXSTL 82% 365322 8417116 33707 73 263345475820 212287 199 360 133 +14 +0 +0 +7 +8 2.9
203427 MLB CTXSTL 80% 358315 8216116 33697 63 262344472816 210287 199 359 132 +14 +0 +0 +6 +8 2.8
203528 MLB CTXSTL 80% 354313 8216116 32696 53 260342467810 207286 199 356 130 +13 -0 -1 +6 +8 2.6
203629 MLB CTXSTL 77% 345305 7916115 31696 42 258339461800 203284 209 352 127 +11 +0 -1 +6 +7 2.4
203730 MLB CTXSTL 76% 340300 7615114 31696 22 255336453789 198282 209 348 124 +10 -0 -2 +6 +7 2.2
203831 MLB CTXSTL 76% 323285 7214113 29676 02 250331443774 193279 219 342 120 +8 -1 -2 +6 +7 1.8
203932 MLB CTXSTL 75% 307272 6613012 27655 01 245325430754 185275 219 334 115 +5 -0 -3 +5 +7 1.5
204033 MLB CTXSTL 75% 291259 6212011 25635 01 238317413730 176270 229 324 108 +3 -0 -3 +5 +6 1.1
204134 MLB CTXSTL 71% 245218 50909 21554 01 229307394700 165263 229 312 100 -0 -0 -3 +4 +5 0.6
204235 MLB CTXSTL 66% 177157 35606 15413 00 219296371667 152255 238 299 91 -2 +0 -4 +3 +4 0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 48014242 107821311202 42996689 5632 254335452788 198283 209 348 123 +139 -2 -20 +86 +104 31.3
/ 162G— A+C — 650574 14529127 5813112 84 253334448782 195281 209 348 123 +19 -0 -3 +12 +14 4.2
Career— MLE — 75766687 169732818337 6821558146 9159 254336459795 206281 219 349 123 +183 -3 -28 +116 +141 41.6
/ 162G— MLE — 650574 14628229 5913413 85 254338462800 207282 219 349 123 +18 -0 -3 +12 +14 4.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AASpringfield Cardinals · 402 PAwOBA .426 → .368 (−58)K% 19.2% → 23.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.15%÷1.000×1.220——23.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.20%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0507.50%
HBP% /PA2.49%—×0.870—×1.0502.27%
Singles /BIP25.37%÷1.000×0.920×0.968×1.05023.72%
Doubles /BIP8.21%÷1.000×0.840×0.968×1.0507.01%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.940×0.968×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP8.58%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0507.21%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .426 → .368; ISO .264 → .223; BABIP .359 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Peoria Chiefs · 128 PAwOBA .410 → .343 (−67)K% 18.8% → 23.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.75%÷1.000×1.270——23.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.84%÷1.000×0.710—×1.05011.07%
HBP% /PA2.34%—×0.790—×1.0501.94%
Singles /BIP24.39%÷1.000×0.920×0.967×1.05022.79%
Doubles /BIP9.76%÷1.000×0.810×0.967×1.0508.03%
Triples /BIP1.22%÷1.000×0.850×0.967×1.0501.05%
Home runs /BIP4.88%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0504.10%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.

Result: wOBA .410 → .343; ISO .208 → .171; BABIP .372 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 APalm Beach Cardinals · 271 PAwOBA .375 → .316 (−59)K% 17.7% → 24.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.71%÷1.000×1.360——24.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.02%÷0.988×0.690—×1.05010.28%
HBP% /PA2.58%—×0.780—×1.0502.12%
Singles /BIP15.25%÷0.995×0.920×0.964×1.05014.28%
Doubles /BIP8.47%÷0.896×0.830×0.964×1.0507.95%
Triples /BIP0.56%÷0.900×0.910×0.964×1.0500.58%
Home runs /BIP7.34%÷0.973×0.800—×1.0506.34%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 99, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 100, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .375 → .316; ISO .249 → .215; BABIP .261 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Cardinals · 80 PAwOBA .546 → .398 (−149)K% 18.8% → 27.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.75%÷0.996×1.440——27.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA20.00%÷1.011×0.620—×1.02212.54%
HBP% /PA3.75%—×0.720—×1.0222.76%
Singles /BIP20.45%÷1.030×0.820—×1.02216.65%
Doubles /BIP13.64%÷1.035×0.720—×1.0229.70%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×1.0220.00%
Home runs /BIP15.91%÷1.149×0.780—×1.02211.04%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 106, 2B 107, 3B 100, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .546 → .398; ISO .458 → .335; BABIP .385 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Peoria Chiefs · 17 PAwOBA .280 → .244 (−36)K% 11.8% → 15.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.76%÷0.951×1.270——15.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA0.00%÷1.027×0.710—×1.0500.00%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.790—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP26.67%÷1.010×0.920—×1.05025.50%
Doubles /BIP6.67%÷1.083×0.810—×1.0505.23%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.926×0.850—×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.857×0.800—×1.0500.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 102, 2B 117, 3B 85, K 90, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .280 → .244; ISO .059 → .044; BABIP .333 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Cardinals · 184 PAwOBA .480 → .299 (−180)K% 13.6% → 16.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.59%÷0.992×1.220——16.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.22%÷1.033×0.700—×1.02210.55%
HBP% /PA3.26%—×0.700—×1.0222.33%
Singles /BIP20.51%÷0.997×0.680×0.950×1.02213.59%
Doubles /BIP10.26%÷0.976×0.600×0.950×1.0226.12%
Triples /BIP2.56%÷1.132×0.600×0.950×1.0221.32%
Home runs /BIP8.55%÷1.307×0.470—×1.0223.14%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 161, 1B 99, 2B 95, 3B 126, K 98, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .480 → .299; ISO .338 → .166; BABIP .345 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).