Francisco Alvarez

Francisco AlvarezC New York Mets

Age 24 R/R 5'10" / 233 lbs MLB H +5%HR +3% Svc 2.953S2 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 4.4 · 2028

wRC+†vL 151118vR 100

AVG/OBP/SLG.232 / .315 / .442

PA397

HR19

K%26

BB%9

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

45→45

PWR

50→50

SPD

40→40

EYE

53↘50

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.6peak

2028

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.953 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$2M	+3.3	$26M	+$24M
2027	Arb-2	$8M	+4.2	$35M	+$27M
2028	Arb-3	$14M	+4.4	$37M	+$23M
2029	Arb-4	$21M	+4.3	$38M	+$17M
Totals		$45M		$136M	+$91M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	GCL Mets	31	28	10	3	0	2	2	6	1	0	1	.357	.419	.679	1.098	.321	.400	19	6	.429	186	+3	-0	+0	+1	+1	0.4
2021	19	A+	2 teams	400	344	82	16	1	22	38	117	11	8	5	.238	.333	.483	.816	.244	.283	29	10	.348	124	+11	-0	+0	+7	+11	3.0
2022	20	AA	2 teams	495	436	102	19	0	26	45	154	8	0	0	.234	.317	.456	.773	.222	.290	31	9	.333	113	+7	+0	+0	+9	+14	3.1
2023	21	MLB	2 teams	442	399	84	13	0	26	36	120	6	3	0	.211	.286	.439	.724	.228	.228	27	8	.315	99	-0	+1	+21	+8	+13	4.2
2024	22	MLB	New York Mets	342	308	73	14	1	11	30	86	2	1	1	.237	.309	.396	.705	.159	.291	25	9	.309	94	-2	-0	+9	+6	+10	2.3
2025	23	MLB	3 teams	408	365	85	15	1	20	35	118	8	0	0	.233	.314	.444	.758	.211	.286	29	9	.331	111	+5	+0	+2	+7	+12	2.6
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	24	MLB	New York Mets	80	68	16	2	0	4	9	15	2	0	0	.235	.342	.441	.783	.206	.240	19	11	.342	120	+2	+0	+1	+1	+2	0.6
ROS	24	MLB	NYM	317	278	65	11	1	15	31	78	5	1	0	.234	.322	.442	.764	.209	.266	25	10	.338	117	+6	+0	+6	+6	+9	2.7
TOT	24	MLB	NYM	397	346	81	13	1	19	40	93	7	1	0	.234	.326	.442	.768	.208	.262	23	10	.339	118	+8	+0	+6	+7	+11	3.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	25	MLB	NYM	505	443	105	18	1	25	49	115	8	2	1	.237	.324	.451	.775	.214	.260	23	10	.340	118	+10	+0	+9	+9	+14	4.3
2028	26	MLB	NYM	508	445	105	18	1	25	50	116	8	2	0	.236	.324	.449	.773	.213	.260	23	10	.342	120	+11	+0	+9	+9	+14	4.5
2029	27	MLB	NYM	503	439	104	18	1	25	51	115	8	2	0	.237	.327	.453	.781	.216	.260	23	10	.342	120	+11	+0	+9	+9	+14	4.4
2030	28	MLB	NYM	495	434	101	17	1	24	50	115	8	1	0	.233	.323	.442	.766	.210	.259	23	10	.341	119	+10	+0	+8	+9	+14	4.2
2031	29	MLB	NYM	483	423	98	17	1	23	49	113	8	0	0	.232	.323	.440	.763	.208	.258	23	10	.338	117	+9	+0	+7	+9	+14	3.9
2032	30	MLB	NYM	471	413	95	16	1	23	48	112	7	0	0	.230	.321	.441	.761	.211	.257	24	10	.335	115	+8	+0	+6	+8	+13	3.6
2033	31	MLB	NYM	442	387	88	15	1	21	45	107	7	0	0	.227	.319	.434	.753	.207	.255	24	10	.332	112	+6	+0	+5	+8	+13	3.2
2034	32	MLB	NYM	411	360	81	14	1	19	42	102	6	0	0	.225	.316	.428	.744	.203	.253	25	10	.327	108	+4	+0	+4	+7	+12	2.7
2035	33	MLB	NYM	370	324	71	12	1	16	37	94	6	0	0	.219	.311	.410	.721	.191	.251	25	10	.321	104	+2	+0	+2	+7	+10	2.1
2036	34	MLB	NYM	319	279	61	10	1	14	32	84	5	0	0	.219	.310	.412	.722	.194	.249	26	10	.314	98	-1	+0	+1	+6	+9	1.5
2037	35	MLB	NYM	262	230	48	8	0	11	26	71	4	0	0	.209	.300	.387	.687	.178	.246	27	10	.305	92	-2	+0	-1	+5	+7	0.9
2038	36	MLB	NYM	205	180	36	6	0	8	20	58	3	0	0	.200	.291	.367	.657	.167	.243	28	10	.296	84	-4	+0	-3	+4	+6	0.3
2039	37	MLB	NYM	149	132	25	4	0	5	14	44	2	0	0	.189	.277	.333	.610	.144	.238	30	9	.285	76	-4	+0	-4	+3	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			7558	6647	1519	264	14	361	730	1925	121	20	8	.229	.316	.435	.751	.207	.263	25	10	.330	111	+91	+1	+88	+135	+214	53.9
/ 162G	—			650	572	131	23	1	31	63	166	10	2	1	.229	.316	.435	.752	.206	.264	26	10	.330	111	+8	+0	+8	+12	+18	4.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	GCL Mets	31	26	12	4	0	2	4	4	1	0	1	.462	.548	.846	1.395	.385	.500	13	13	.589	309	+7	-0	—	—	+1	0.8
2021	19	A+	Brooklyn Cyclones	333	279	69	13	1	22	40	82	8	6	3	.247	.358	.538	.895	.290	.260	25	12	.384	152	+19	+0	—	—	+9	2.9
2021	19	A	St. Lucie Mets	67	48	20	5	0	2	15	7	3	2	2	.417	.576	.646	1.222	.229	.450	10	22	.523	258	+12	-0	—	—	+2	1.4
2022	20	AAA	Syracuse Mets	199	158	37	6	0	9	34	52	5	0	0	.234	.386	.443	.829	.209	.283	26	17	.371	142	+9	+0	—	—	+6	1.5
2022	20	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	296	253	70	16	0	18	36	71	3	0	0	.277	.373	.553	.927	.277	.310	24	12	.398	163	+21	+0	—	—	+8	3.0
2023	21	MLB	New York Mets	423	382	80	12	0	25	34	110	6	2	0	.209	.284	.437	.722	.228	.222	26	8	.318	101	+1	+0	+21	+8	+12	4.3
2023	21	AAA	Syracuse Mets	19	16	4	1	0	2	3	8	0	1	0	.250	.368	.688	1.056	.438	.333	42	16	.444	198	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2024	22	MLB	New York Mets	342	308	73	14	2	11	30	86	2	1	1	.237	.309	.403	.711	.166	.291	25	9	.316	100	+0	-0	+9	+6	+10	2.5
2025	23	MLB	New York Mets	277	246	63	12	1	11	27	73	4	0	0	.256	.339	.447	.787	.191	.321	26	10	.350	126	+8	+0	+2	+7	+8	2.6
2025	23	AAA	Syracuse Mets	107	93	24	4	0	12	11	33	3	0	0	.258	.355	.688	1.043	.430	.250	31	10	.441	196	+12	+0	—	—	+3	1.5
2025	23	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	24	22	6	0	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	.273	.333	.409	.742	.136	.294	17	4	.335	114	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			1042	936	216	38	3	47	91	269	12	3	1	.231	.307	.428	.735	.198	.271	26	9	.326	108	+9	+0	+31	+21	+30	9.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Francisco Alvarez (OGILVIE)	24	45	50	40	50	.232/.319/.441	.209	.253	19	1	21%	10%	117	+1.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Gleyber Torres 2021 · MLB	24	50→54	59→60	46→50	51	.266/.336/.470	.205	.301	27	7	22%	9%	130	+3.8	.260/.328/.420	.160	.303	19	12	20%	9%	113	+2.6	.258/.343/.395	.138	.293	16	6	17%	11%	111	+2.7
●Wilin Rosario 2013 · MLB	24	44→54	58→60	40→45	40	.239/.277/.438	.199	.277	28	5	26%	5%	97	+1.5	.259/.293/.439	.180	.303	23	5	23%	5%	104	+2.0	.263/.294/.428	.165	.309	20	4	22%	4%	96	+1.0
★Austin Riley 2021 · MLB	24	43→53	59→65	42→40	40	.235/.288/.443	.208	.297	28	3	31%	6%	103	+1.9	.269/.337/.490	.221	.324	29	2	25%	8%	135	+4.2	.273/.345/.498	.224	.325	30	1	25%	8%	136	+4.9
✕Logan O'Hoppe 2023 · MLB	23	44→48	54→60	45	48	.234/.306/.407	.174	.265	23	7	22%	8%	102	+1.8	.237/.300/.419	.182	.286	26	5	26%	7%	102	+1.9	.232/.286/.409	.178	.288	27	2	29%	6%	92	+0.8
●Paul DeJong 2019 · MLB	25	46→50	58→65	41→45	40	.246/.299/.449	.203	.304	26	3	29%	6%	109	+2.4	.240/.316/.448	.208	.281	27	6	25%	8%	116	+2.8	.227/.312/.432	.205	.258	28	7	24%	9%	109	+1.6
●Isaac Paredes 2023 · MLB	24	43→51	54→60	40	56	.225/.311/.402	.177	.241	22	2	18%	10%	102	+1.9	.240/.338/.437	.197	.257	25	2	18%	11%	122	+3.3	.245/.349/.440	.195	.261	25	1	17%	11%	126	+3.2
●William Contreras 2023 · MLB	25	48→58	55	49→45	48	.250/.320/.433	.183	.310	24	4	27%	9%	113	+2.6	.271/.351/.438	.167	.329	18	6	22%	11%	127	+3.6	.274/.362/.430	.156	.327	16	6	20%	12%	121	+3.4
●Eloy Jiménez 2021 · MLB	24	51→56	61→65	44→40	42	.271/.313/.490	.219	.311	30	2	24%	6%	126	+3.5	.265/.317/.455	.190	.315	26	2	24%	7%	118	+3.0	.268/.321/.438	.170	.313	23	0	22%	7%	113	+1.7
●Will Smith 2021 · MLB	26	40→50	61→60	50→45	50	.225/.308/.446	.221	.260	30	5	27%	10%	112	+2.6	.250/.347/.451	.201	.275	25	4	19%	11%	129	+3.7	.249/.351/.438	.188	.273	23	3	18%	11%	123	+3.0
✕Andy LaRoche 2008 · MLB	24	50→55	54→55	44→45	52	.259/.329/.440	.181	.290	22	8	19%	9%	119	+3.1	.237/.316/.368	.131	.264	14	6	16%	10%	95	+1.4	.236/.306/.351	.114	.266	10	3	15%	8%	82	+0.3
●Joe Crede 2003 · MLB	25	50→53	56→60	42→30	44	.264/.304/.452	.189	.291	25	6	20%	5%	111	+2.5	.254/.304/.434	.180	.266	23	3	15%	6%	107	+2.2	.255/.307/.454	.199	.254	27	1	13%	5%	111	+2.2
●Miguel Sanó 2017 · MLB	24	47→52	61→70	47→45	49	.241/.327/.466	.225	.332	29	4	34%	11%	125	+3.5	.240/.326/.464	.224	.342	30	2	36%	11%	124	+3.4	.229/.318/.516	.287	.299	41	1	37%	11%	130	+2.6
●Shea Langeliers 2023 · MLB	25	41→48	57→65	49→45	41	.225/.280/.419	.194	.284	27	5	31%	6%	94	+1.3	.227/.286/.438	.211	.271	29	6	28%	7%	102	+1.8	.254/.314/.505	.250	.279	37	6	24%	7%	126	+2.3
●Jedd Gyorko 2014 · MLB	25	48→53	55→60	43→45	44	.252/.300/.434	.182	.295	24	5	24%	6%	105	+2.1	.234/.292/.395	.161	.274	22	3	23%	7%	92	+1.2	.258/.332/.467	.210	.287	29	4	21%	10%	125	+2.5
★Mark Reynolds 2008 · MLB	24	48→57	57→65	43→50	44	.249/.312/.452	.203	.321	25	3	30%	8%	115	+2.8	.245/.329/.474	.229	.331	30	11	33%	11%	128	+3.6	.229/.328/.465	.236	.306	32	13	34%	12%	120	+3.2
●Devin Mesoraco 2012 · MLB	24	44→52	52→60	42→40	44	.230/.286/.404	.174	.272	19	3	24%	6%	92	+1.2	.236/.297/.398	.162	.272	19	3	20%	7%	95	+1.4	.241/.331/.442	.201	.275	26	1	22%	9%	113	+1.4
●Jorge Cantu 2006 · MLB	24	54→60	55→60	48→40	43	.280/.313/.475	.195	.299	22	3	16%	4%	121	+3.2	.260/.305/.430	.170	.293	20	3	18%	5%	106	+2.2	.271/.325/.432	.161	.298	18	3	16%	6%	110	+2.5
●Jose Ortiz 2002 · MLB	25	46	57→55	50→45	49	.245/.306/.438	.192	.252	26	10	16%	7%	109	+2.4	.242/.307/.371	.129	.269	14	9	16%	7%	92	+1.2	.283/.329/.428	.146	.316	18	4	16%	5%	113	+1.0
●Mark Vientos 2023 · MLB	23	46→50	58→60	37→30	39	.239/.294/.437	.198	.328	28	3	35%	7%	104	+2.0	.244/.300/.443	.199	.315	27	2	30%	7%	108	+2.3	.241/.300/.442	.201	.298	27	1	28%	7%	105	+1.8
●Franmil Reyes 2021 · MLB	26	48→52	62→65	45	47	.257/.324/.477	.220	.314	32	2	29%	9%	127	+3.6	.238/.302/.439	.201	.310	28	4	31%	8%	108	+2.3	.222/.285/.407	.185	.292	26	3	32%	8%	90	+0.7

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)