Francisco Alvarez

C New York Mets

Age 25 R/R 5'10" / 233 lbs MLB H -5% Svc 3.883 · Ctrl thru 2029

Overview

MLB40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	22	MLBNYM	342	.237/.309/.403	11	1	105	2.4
2025	23	AAA/AANYM	131	.261/.351/.635	13	0	87	—	.195/.275/.424
2025	23	MLBNYM	277	.256/.339/.447	11	0	128	2.5
2026	24	MLBNYM	420	.233/.311/.399	16	0	103	1.9
2027PROJ	25	MLBNYM	359	.222/.302/.404	15	1	102	1.5
2028PROJ98% MLB	26	MLBNYM	368	.221/.302/.404	15	1	102	1.6
2029PROJ98% MLB	27	MLBNYM	365	.220/.301/.401	15	1	101	1.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.883First FA2030

2027Arb-1$3M2028Arb-2$5M2029Arb-3$8M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Bat Spd80

Avg EV74

Barrel%73

xwOBA55

Speed10

Form.219/.283/.401 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .227/.305/.412

CompsLogan O'Hoppe (age 24) · Welington Castillo (age 25) · Luis Torrens (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 105102vR 93

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .302 / .404

PA359

HR15

K%28

BB%9

BABIP272

ISO185

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$23M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

xAVG

190.226

POWER50

Barrel%

7311.7

Avg EV

7490.8

Bat Spd

8074.5

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED40

Sprint

1025.3

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%32%▼▼35% over 72 PA (60d) · proj 29%

BB%7%▼▼4% over 72 PA (60d) · proj 9%

ISO.183·.176 over 68 AB (60d) · proj .185

HR/BB6.9%·6.8% over 44 BBE (60d) · proj 6.9%

BABIP.283·.317 over 41 BIP (60d) · proj .281

SLASH.219/.283/.401▼proj .227/.305/.412

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 703 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

171

532

—

wRC+

131

103

◀◀L

wOBA

362

321

◀L

ISO

250

159

◀◀L

BABIP

258

312

▶▶R

20.5%

26.3%

◀◀L

BB%

12.9%

8.3%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.883 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$3M	+1.8	$14M	+$11M
2028	Arb-2	$5M	+1.6	$12M	+$7M
2029	Arb-3	$8M	+1.5	$10M	+$4M
Totals		$17M		$37M	+$22M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	17	ROK	GCL Mets	—	31	26	12	4	0	2	4	4	1	0	1	462	548	846	1.395	385	500	13	13	589	182	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A+	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	333	279	69	13	1	22	40	82	8	6	3	247	358	538	895	290	260	25	12	384	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	67	48	20	5	0	2	15	7	3	2	2	417	576	646	1.222	229	450	10	22	523	193	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	199	158	37	6	0	9	34	52	5	0	0	234	386	443	829	209	283	26	17	371	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	296	253	70	16	0	18	36	71	3	0	0	277	373	553	927	277	310	24	12	398	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	MLB	New York Mets	—	423	382	80	12	0	25	34	110	6	2	0	209	284	437	722	228	222	26	8	318	105	+2	+0	+21	+8	+9	4.2
2023	21	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	19	16	4	1	0	2	3	8	0	1	0	250	368	688	1.056	438	333	42	16	444	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	MLB	New York Mets	—	342	308	73	14	2	11	30	86	2	1	1	237	309	403	711	166	291	25	9	316	105	+2	-0	+9	+6	+7	2.4
2025	23	MLB	New York Mets	—	277	246	63	12	1	11	27	73	4	0	0	256	339	447	787	191	321	26	10	350	128	+9	+0	+2	+7	+6	2.5
2025	23	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	107	93	24	4	0	12	11	33	3	0	0	258	355	688	1.043	430	250	31	10	441	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	24	22	6	0	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	273	333	409	742	136	294	17	4	335	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB	New York Mets	—	420	373	87	14	0	16	39	129	4	0	0	233	311	399	710	166	309	31	9	317	103	+2	+0	+1	+8	+9	1.9
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1462	1309	303	52	3	63	130	398	16	3	1	231	308	420	728	189	281	27	9	323	105	+9	+0	+32	+29	+32	10.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	17	ROK MLE	GCL Mets	—	31	27	10	3	0	2	3	6	1	0	1	370	452	704	1.155	333	391	19	10	437	182	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	333	290	65	12	1	20	29	106	8	6	3	224	312	479	791	255	254	32	9	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	67	53	20	5	0	2	10	10	3	2	2	377	500	585	1.085	208	411	15	15	454	193	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	199	169	35	6	0	6	23	65	5	0	0	207	320	349	669	142	278	33	12	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	296	265	70	15	0	17	24	85	3	0	0	264	332	513	845	249	306	29	8	356	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	423	382	82	13	0	25	34	110	6	2	0	215	289	445	734	230	222	26	8	323	105	+2	+0	+21	+8	+9	4.2
2023	21	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	19	17	3	1	0	1	2	10	0	1	0	176	263	412	675	235	293	53	11	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	342	308	75	15	2	11	30	86	2	1	1	244	315	412	727	169	291	25	9	323	105	+2	-0	+9	+6	+7	2.4
2025	23	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	277	246	65	13	1	11	27	73	4	0	0	264	347	459	806	195	321	26	10	357	128	+9	+0	+2	+7	+6	2.5
2025	23	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	107	96	17	3	0	7	8	40	3	0	0	177	262	427	689	250	212	37	7	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	24	22	6	0	0	1	1	5	1	0	0	273	333	409	742	136	291	21	4	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	420	376	89	15	0	16	38	129	4	0	0	237	313	404	718	168	309	31	9	321	103	+2	+0	+1	+8	+9	1.9
2019	17	ROK MLE	GCL Mets	—	31	27	10	3	0	2	3	6	1	0	1	370	452	704	1.155	333	421	19	10	437	182	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	GCL Mets	—	31	26	12	4	0	2	4	4	1	0	1	462	548	846	1.395	385	500	13	13	589	182	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	400	342	85	17	1	22	40	116	11	8	5	249	346	497	843	249	299	29	10	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	400	327	89	18	1	24	55	89	11	8	5	272	394	554	948	281	294	22	14	407	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	495	434	103	20	0	23	47	150	8	0	0	237	323	442	766	205	300	30	9	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	AA RAW	2 teams	—	495	411	107	22	0	27	70	123	8	0	0	260	378	511	889	251	300	25	14	387	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	442	399	85	14	0	26	36	120	6	3	0	213	288	444	732	231	232	27	8	322	104	+2	+1	+21	+8	+10	4.2
2023	21	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	442	398	84	13	0	27	37	118	6	3	0	211	288	447	735	236	224	27	8	323	104	+2	+1	+21	+8	+10	4.2
2024	22	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	342	308	75	15	2	11	30	86	2	1	1	244	315	412	727	169	300	25	9	323	105	+2	-0	+9	+6	+7	2.4
2024	22	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	342	308	73	14	2	11	30	86	2	1	1	237	309	403	711	166	291	25	9	316	105	+2	-0	+9	+6	+7	2.4
2025	23	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	408	364	88	16	1	19	36	118	8	0	0	242	324	448	771	206	304	29	9	338	115	+7	+0	+2	+7	+9	2.6
2025	23	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	408	361	93	16	1	24	39	110	8	0	0	258	343	507	850	249	304	27	10	373	115	+7	+0	+2	+7	+9	2.6
2026	24	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	420	376	89	15	0	16	38	129	4	0	0	237	313	404	718	168	313	31	9	321	103	+2	+0	+1	+8	+9	1.9
2026	24	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	420	373	87	14	0	16	39	129	4	0	0	233	311	399	710	166	309	31	9	317	103	+2	+0	+1	+8	+9	1.9
2019	17	ROK MLE	GCL Mets	—	31	27	10	3	0	2	3	6	1	0	1	370	452	704	1.155	333	391	19	10	437	182	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	400	346	85	17	1	22	40	116	11	8	5	246	346	491	837	246	280	29	10	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	495	437	103	20	0	23	47	150	8	0	0	236	323	439	762	204	295	30	9	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	442	397	85	14	0	26	36	120	6	3	0	214	288	446	734	232	225	27	8	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	342	307	75	15	2	11	30	86	2	1	1	244	315	414	728	169	291	25	9	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	408	361	88	16	1	19	36	118	8	0	0	244	324	452	775	208	291	29	9	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	420	375	89	15	0	16	38	129	4	0	0	237	313	405	719	168	309	31	9	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	22	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	342	307	75	15	2	11	30	86	2	1	1	244	315	414	728	169	291	25	9	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	408	361	88	16	1	19	36	118	8	0	0	244	324	452	775	208	291	29	9	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	420	375	89	15	0	16	38	129	4	0	0	237	313	405	719	168	309	31	9	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	NYM	100%	450	401	92	16	1	19	41	128	5	1	1	228	307	413	720	185	281	28	9	319	102	+1	-0	-0	+8	+10	1.8
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	25	MLB CTX	NYM	100%	359	319	71	12	1	15	33	102	4	1	0	222	302	404	706	182	272	28	9	313	102	+1	+0	-0	+6	+8	1.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYM	98%	375	334	76	13	1	16	34	107	4	1	0	227	307	412	720	185	281	29	9	319	102	+1	+0	-0	+7	+8	1.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYM	98%	372	331	76	13	1	16	34	107	4	1	0	226	306	409	716	183	280	29	9	317	101	+0	+0	-0	+7	+8	1.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	NYM	98%	366	325	74	13	1	15	34	106	4	1	0	224	304	405	709	180	279	29	9	315	99	-0	+0	-1	+7	+8	1.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	NYM	98%	353	315	69	12	0	14	32	103	3	1	0	222	301	398	699	176	277	29	9	311	97	-1	+0	-2	+6	+8	1.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	NYM	98%	341	304	65	11	0	13	31	101	3	0	0	218	298	390	687	171	275	30	9	306	93	-3	+0	-2	+6	+7	0.8
2033	31	MLB MLE	NYM	98%	305	272	59	10	0	12	27	91	3	0	0	214	292	379	671	165	271	30	9	300	89	-4	+0	-3	+5	+7	0.5
2034	32	MLB MLE	NYM	98%	268	240	50	8	0	10	24	81	2	0	0	208	286	365	650	157	265	30	9	291	83	-5	+0	-4	+5	+6	0.1
2035	33	MLB MLE	NYM	98%	227	203	41	6	0	8	20	70	2	0	0	201	277	349	626	148	259	31	9	281	76	-6	+0	-4	+4	+5	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYM	98%	368	327	72	12	1	15	34	105	4	1	0	221	302	404	706	182	272	29	9	313	102	+1	+0	-0	+7	+8	1.6
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYM	98%	365	324	72	12	1	15	34	105	4	1	0	220	301	401	702	181	271	29	9	312	101	+0	+0	-0	+7	+8	1.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	NYM	98%	359	319	70	12	0	15	33	104	4	1	0	218	299	396	695	178	270	29	9	309	99	-0	+0	-1	+6	+8	1.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	NYM	98%	346	308	66	11	0	14	32	101	3	1	0	216	296	390	686	174	269	29	9	305	97	-1	+0	-2	+6	+7	1.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	NYM	98%	334	298	63	10	0	13	30	99	3	0	0	213	292	381	674	169	266	30	9	301	93	-3	+0	-2	+6	+7	0.8
2033	31	MLB CTX	NYM	98%	299	267	55	9	0	11	27	89	3	0	0	208	287	371	658	163	262	30	9	294	89	-4	+0	-3	+5	+6	0.5
2034	32	MLB CTX	NYM	98%	263	236	48	8	0	10	23	80	2	0	0	202	281	357	638	155	257	30	9	286	83	-5	+0	-4	+5	+6	0.1
2035	33	MLB CTX	NYM	98%	222	199	39	6	0	8	19	69	2	0	0	195	273	341	614	146	251	31	9	276	76	-6	+0	-4	+4	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4018	3587	788	132	5	164	362	1150	41	7	1	220	298	396	695	177	272	29	9	309	103	-10	+1	+16	+74	+87	17.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	128	21	1	27	59	186	7	1	0	221	300	400	700	179	273	29	9	309	103	-2	+0	+3	+12	+14	2.8
Career	—	MLE		—	5504	4893	1118	199	8	238	499	1593	69	17	7	228	309	418	727	190	284	29	9	320	103	-10	+1	+15	+82	+96	18.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	132	24	1	28	59	188	8	2	1	228	309	419	727	190	284	29	9	320	103	-1	+0	+2	+12	+14	2.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAASyracuse Mets · 107 PAwOBA .428 → .298 (−131)K% 30.8% → 37.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.84%	÷0.981	×1.200	—	—	37.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.28%	÷1.005	×0.690	—	×1.048	7.39%
HBP% /PA	2.80%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	2.76%
Singles /BIP	13.33%	÷0.975	×0.930	×0.975	×1.048	12.99%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷1.022	×0.830	×0.975	×1.048	5.53%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.959	×0.970	×0.975	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	20.00%	÷1.167	×0.700	—	×1.048	12.58%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 95, 2B 104, 3B 92, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.

Result: wOBA .428 → .298; ISO .430 → .259; BABIP .250 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 24 PAwOBA .326 → .291 (−35)K% 16.7% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.67%	÷1.015	×1.220	—	—	20.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.17%	÷0.983	×0.700	—	×1.012	3.00%
HBP% /PA	4.17%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	3.58%
Singles /BIP	27.78%	÷0.982	×0.970	—	×1.012	27.78%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.941	×0.860	—	×1.012	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.911	×0.950	—	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.56%	÷0.990	×0.780	—	×1.012	4.43%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 96, 2B 88, 3B 82, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .326 → .291; ISO .136 → .106; BABIP .294 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASyracuse Mets · 19 PAwOBA .432 → .302 (−129)K% 42.1% → 52.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	42.11%	÷0.961	×1.200	—	—	52.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.79%	÷0.967	×0.690	—	×1.050	11.83%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	12.50%	÷0.997	×0.930	—	×1.050	12.24%
Doubles /BIP	12.50%	÷0.933	×0.830	—	×1.050	11.68%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	25.00%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×1.050	18.32%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 99, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .432 → .302; ISO .438 → .282; BABIP .333 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 296 PAwOBA .392 → .356 (−36)K% 24.0% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.99%	÷1.017	×1.220	—	—	28.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.82%	÷1.057	×0.700	—	×1.050	8.23%
HBP% /PA	1.01%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	0.90%
Singles /BIP	19.78%	÷0.983	×0.970	×0.998	×1.050	20.46%
Doubles /BIP	8.79%	÷0.988	×0.860	×0.998	×1.050	8.02%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.950	×0.998	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.89%	÷0.895	×0.780	—	×1.050	9.05%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 97, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 103, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.

Result: wOBA .392 → .356; ISO .277 → .256; BABIP .310 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASyracuse Mets · 199 PAwOBA .362 → .303 (−59)K% 26.1% → 32.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.13%	÷0.961	×1.200	—	—	32.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.08%	÷1.019	×0.690	—	×1.050	11.43%
HBP% /PA	2.51%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	2.48%
Singles /BIP	20.75%	÷0.953	×0.930	×1.008	×1.050	21.44%
Doubles /BIP	5.66%	÷0.951	×0.830	×1.008	×1.050	5.23%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.008	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.49%	÷1.033	×0.700	—	×1.050	6.04%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 91, 2B 90, 3B 100, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .362 → .303; ISO .209 → .157; BABIP .283 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 333 PAwOBA .380 → .334 (−46)K% 24.6% → 31.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.62%	÷1.041	×1.350	—	—	31.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.01%	÷1.006	×0.710	—	×1.042	8.84%
HBP% /PA	2.40%	—	×0.810	—	×1.042	2.03%
Singles /BIP	16.75%	÷0.957	×0.910	×1.015	×1.042	16.85%
Doubles /BIP	6.60%	÷0.930	×0.830	×1.015	×1.042	6.23%
Triples /BIP	0.51%	÷1.028	×0.820	×1.015	×1.042	0.43%
Home runs /BIP	11.17%	÷0.925	×0.830	—	×1.042	10.44%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 91, 2B 86, 3B 106, K 108, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.

Result: wOBA .380 → .334; ISO .290 → .262; BABIP .260 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ASt. Lucie Mets · 67 PAwOBA .518 → .454 (−64)K% 10.4% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.45%	÷0.945	×1.360	—	—	15.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	22.39%	÷1.041	×0.690	—	×1.030	15.28%
HBP% /PA	4.48%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	3.60%
Singles /BIP	31.71%	÷1.028	×0.920	—	×1.030	29.21%
Doubles /BIP	12.20%	÷0.935	×0.830	—	×1.030	11.15%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.137	×0.910	—	×1.030	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.88%	÷0.988	×0.800	—	×1.030	4.07%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 106, 2B 87, 3B 127, K 89, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .518 → .454; ISO .229 → .215; BABIP .450 → .411. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKGCL Mets · 31 PAwOBA .573 → .437 (−135)K% 12.9% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.90%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	18.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.90%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.022	8.18%
HBP% /PA	3.23%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	2.37%
Singles /BIP	27.27%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×1.022	22.87%
Doubles /BIP	18.18%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×1.022	13.39%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.09%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.022	7.25%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .573 → .437; ISO .385 → .297; BABIP .500 → .391. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Matt Wieterslast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,387 PA	6.6	4,387	146	9	250	313	411	+78	+81	30.0	28.4
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+12.2	4.5	pk7: 27
#2Yan Gomeslast yr '24 career totals — 13 seasons, 4,082 PA	6.1	4,082	137	8	246	295	412	+69	+103	27.3	26.2
/162	664	22	1	+11.2	+16.8	4.4	pk7: 25
#3Charles Johnson'94-'05 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,385 PA	6.6	4,385	167	6	235*	316*	421*	+78	+0	21.1	19.6
/162	664	25	1	+11.8	+0.0	3.2	pk7: 18
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	6.6	4,376	179	8	225	300	405	+78	+85	19.0	16.0
/162	664	27	1	+11.9	+12.9	2.9	pk7: 13
#4Rich Gedman'80-'92 * career totals — 12 seasons, 3,468 PA	5.2	3,468	88	3	249*	305*	420*	+61	+0	13.1	13.8
/162	664	17	1	+11.7	+0.0	2.5	pk7: 15
#5Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	3.3	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
/162	664	19	8	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#6Ed Herrmann'67-'78 * career totals — 10 seasons, 3,057 PA	4.6	3,057	80	6	241*	311*	404*	+49	+0	11.9	11.5
/162	664	17	1	+10.6	+0.0	2.6	pk7: 11

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Francisco Alvarez (OGILVIE)	25	45	50	40	50	226/305/409	183	281	15	1	29%	9%	102	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Logan O'Hoppe 2024 · MLB	24	45→48	57→55	43→45	49	240/314/434	193	269	26	6	22%	8%	110	+2.1	233/291/394	161	295	22	4	28%	7%	93	+0.8	226/283/371	144	289	20	2	28%	6%	84	+0.1
✕Welington Castillo 2012 · MLB	25	42→52	54→55	41→30	40	227/275/401	175	279	23	3	28%	5%	88	+0.5	246/316/398	152	311	18	3	26%	8%	102	+1.5	251/305/431	180	305	25	1	26%	6%	107	+1.2
✕Luis Torrens 2022 · MLB	26	46→49	53→50	45→40	46	238/296/411	173	288	21	3	25%	8%	98	+1.2	233/287/378	145	304	17	3	28%	7%	87	+0.4	235/293/375	140	282	15	2	22%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Wilin Rosario 2014 · MLB	25	49→54	57→60	42→45	40	260/292/450	190	301	26	6	24%	4%	105	+1.7	253/284/410	157	298	18	5	22%	4%	93	+0.8	246/275/398	152	285	18	3	21%	3%	86	+0.2
✕Renato Núñez 2020 · MLB	26	45→53	55→60	43→30	45	239/302/421	182	287	24	3	26%	7%	103	+1.5	237/305/431	194	289	26	3	27%	7%	106	+1.8	225/298/430	204	275	28	1	29%	7%	103	+0.8
✕Taylor Teagarden 2009 · MLB	25	44→49	55	44→30	46	224/307/411	187	317	24	4	35%	10%	103	+1.5	208/276/355	147	318	17	3	38%	8%	78	-0.3	220/283/369	149	331	20	0	38%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Sam Huff 2024 · MLB	26	47→44	55	46→45	42	239/301/415	176	329	25	3	34%	8%	101	+1.4	213/267/347	134	318	15	3	36%	6%	72	-0.7	189/240/305	115	290	12	0	37%	6%	49	-1.2
●Mark Vientos 2024 · MLB	24	47→51	55→60	42→30	41	243/300/429	186	320	24	2	31%	7%	104	+1.6	247/304/446	199	308	26	2	28%	7%	109	+2.0	244/301/449	205	295	28	0	27%	7%	109	+1.5
●John Buck 2005 · MLB	25	45→53	56→60	44→30	42	240/289/425	185	301	26	6	30%	6%	99	+1.2	238/293/401	163	282	20	3	23%	6%	95	+0.9	249/305/432	183	297	23	1	24%	6%	107	+1.2
●Sean Murphy 2020 · MLB	25	45→49	53→60	46→30	45	232/293/409	177	275	20	4	24%	7%	97	+1.1	237/322/434	197	283	24	3	25%	10%	113	+2.3	239/334/439	199	278	24	0	22%	10%	120	+2.3
✕Ryan Lavarnway 2013 · MLB	25	46	49→55	45→30	46	235/298/383	148	286	18	2	24%	7%	93	+0.8	237/302/345	108	290	10	3	21%	7%	84	+0.2	239/308/330	91	291	8	0	20%	8%	82	+0.0
✕J.P. Arencibia 2011 · MLB	25	40→49	57→65	43→30	40	223/266/419	196	262	26	2	27%	5%	89	+0.5	220/268/419	199	264	27	3	28%	6%	90	+0.6	211/256/405	194	251	27	1	29%	5%	83	+0.1
✕Deivy Grullón 2021 · AAA	25	47→45	55	47→30	40	242/294/421	179	324	24	4	32%	7%	99	+1.3	209/266/364	155	327	20	6	40%	7%	76	-0.4	144/200/283	139	215	21	0	44%	6%	30	-1.0
●Devin Mesoraco 2012 · MLB	24	46→50	53→60	42→40	45	239/295/416	177	281	20	3	23%	6%	99	+1.2	237/293/397	160	272	19	3	20%	7%	94	+0.9	235/319/433	198	264	26	1	22%	9%	112	+1.1
✕Austin Allen 2020 · MLB	26	45→53	57→60	38→40	41	241/285/436	195	285	25	2	26%	5%	100	+1.3	239/280/416	177	293	23	3	26%	5%	93	+0.8	210/262/379	169	251	23	0	27%	5%	75	-0.3
✕Luis Urías 2022 · MLB	25	48→58	52→55	47→45	53	247/331/420	173	289	20	7	22%	10%	113	+2.3	227/323/375	148	273	17	5	22%	10%	101	+1.4	212/315/343	131	259	15	4	23%	10%	91	+0.5
✕James Darnell 2012 · MLB	25	49→52	52→55	46→40	51	251/320/420	169	286	20	4	20%	9%	109	+2.0	233/296/387	154	280	17	6	23%	7%	93	+0.8	217/298/394	177	244	24	3	22%	8%	95	+0.2
●Shea Langeliers 2023 · MLB	25	43→48	55→65	49→45	42	229/285/409	180	289	23	5	29%	7%	94	+0.9	231/288/448	217	272	30	6	27%	7%	104	+1.6	249/308/484	235	273	34	6	23%	7%	121	+2.4
✕Chance Sisco 2021 · MLB	26	45→55	51→50	43→40	48	227/330/389	162	308	20	3	31%	10%	107	+1.8	204/290/339	135	275	14	5	29%	9%	80	-0.2	160/246/269	109	216	9	0	29%	8%	46	-1.1
✕Chris Gimenez 2008 · AA	25	40→50	52→50	41→45	45	215/292/384	169	257	21	5	25%	7%	91	+0.7	232/307/373	141	297	16	4	26%	9%	93	+0.8	230/308/359	129	296	14	2	25%	9%	90	+0.3

Francisco Alvarez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps