Francisco Alvarez

Francisco AlvarezC New York Mets

Age 24 R/R 5'10" / 233 lbs MLB Svc 2.953S2 · Ctrl thru 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION232 act + 165 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 141127vR 91

AVG/OBP/SLG.230 / .305 / .412

PA165

HR7

K%25

BB%8

BABIP270

ISO182

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

639.6%

xwOBA

570.316

POWER50

Barrel%

6810.8

Avg EV

7190.5

Bat Spd

8074.5

EYE50

Chase%

9023.0%

SPEED40

Sprint

1225.6

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 703 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

171

532

—

wRC+

135

104

◀◀L

wOBA

362

321

◀L

ISO

250

159

◀◀L

BABIP

258

312

▶▶R

20.5%

26.3%

◀◀L

BB%

12.9%

8.3%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.953 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$1.0M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2027	Arb-2	$5M	+2.8	$21M	+$16M
2028	Arb-3	$9M	+2.8	$19M	+$12M
2029	Arb-4	$14M	+2.8	$18M	+$8M
Totals		$29M		$61M	+$38M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	GCL Mets	—	31	28	10	3	0	2	2	6	1	0	1	357	419	679	1.098	321	400	19	6	429	186	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK	GCL Mets	—	31	26	12	4	0	2	4	4	1	0	1	462	548	846	1.395	385	500	13	13	589	309	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A+	2 teams	—	400	344	87	18	1	23	38	113	11	8	5	253	346	512	858	259	298	28	10	362	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A+	2 teams	—	400	327	89	18	1	24	55	89	11	8	5	272	394	554	948	281	294	22	14	407	170	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	AA	2 teams	—	495	438	106	20	0	28	43	156	8	0	0	242	321	479	801	237	300	32	9	344	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	AA	2 teams	—	495	411	107	22	0	27	70	123	8	0	0	260	378	511	889	251	300	25	14	387	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	MLB	2 teams	—	442	399	83	13	0	26	36	120	6	3	0	208	283	436	720	228	224	27	8	315	99	-0	+1	+21	+8	+13	4.2
2023	21	MLB	2 teams	—	442	398	84	13	0	27	37	118	6	3	0	211	288	447	735	236	224	27	8	323	106	+3	+1	+21	+8	+13	4.6
2024	22	MLB	New York Mets	—	342	308	73	14	2	11	30	86	2	1	1	237	309	403	711	166	291	25	9	313	98	-1	-0	+9	+6	+10	2.4
2024	22	MLB	New York Mets	—	342	308	73	14	2	11	30	86	2	1	1	237	309	403	711	166	291	25	9	316	100	+0	-0	+9	+6	+10	2.5
2025	23	MLB	3 teams	—	408	365	86	15	1	19	35	119	8	0	0	236	316	438	755	203	295	29	9	329	110	+5	+0	+2	+7	+12	2.6
2025	23	MLB	3 teams	—	408	361	93	16	1	24	39	110	8	0	0	258	343	507	850	249	304	27	10	373	144	+20	+0	+2	+7	+12	4.2
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	MLB	NYM	—	232	211	53	7	0	9	17	60	3	0	0	251	316	412	728	161	308	26	7	321	104	+1	+0	+1	+4	+7	1.3
YTD	24	MLB	NYM	—	232	209	53	7	0	9	17	60	3	0	0	254	316	416	732	163	312	26	7	324	106	+2	+0	+1	+4	+7	1.3
ROS	24	MLB	NYM	100%	165	148	34	6	0	7	14	42	2	0	0	230	305	412	717	182	275	25	8	325	107	+1	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.9
ROS	24	MLB	NYM	100%	165	148	34	6	0	7	14	42	2	0	0	230	305	412	717	182	275	25	8	315	99	-0	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.8
FULL	24	MLB	NYM	—	397	359	87	13	0	16	31	102	5	0	0	242	311	412	724	170	292	26	8	318	102	+1	+0	+1	+7	+11	2.0
TOT	24	MLB	NYM	—	397	359	87	13	0	16	31	102	5	0	0	242	311	412	724	170	292	26	8	323	105	+2	+0	+1	+7	+11	2.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	NYM	100%	505	449	104	18	1	22	44	129	7	1	0	232	310	423	733	192	271	26	9	326	107	+4	+0	+1	+9	+14	2.9
2028	26	MLB	NYM	100%	508	451	105	18	1	23	45	130	7	1	0	233	312	430	742	197	271	26	9	327	108	+5	+0	+1	+9	+14	2.9
2029	27	MLB	NYM	100%	503	446	104	18	1	23	45	129	7	1	0	233	313	433	746	200	271	26	9	327	108	+5	+0	+1	+9	+14	2.9
2030	28	MLB	NYM	100%	495	441	101	17	1	22	44	128	7	1	0	229	309	422	731	193	270	26	9	326	107	+4	+0	-0	+9	+14	2.8
2031	29	MLB	NYM	100%	483	429	98	17	1	21	44	125	7	1	0	228	310	420	730	191	269	26	9	324	106	+3	+0	-1	+9	+14	2.5
2032	30	MLB	NYM	100%	471	419	95	16	1	20	43	123	6	1	0	227	308	413	721	186	268	26	9	321	104	+2	+0	-2	+8	+13	2.3
2033	31	MLB	NYM	100%	442	393	89	15	1	19	40	117	6	1	0	226	308	415	722	188	265	26	9	316	100	+0	+0	-2	+8	+13	1.9
2034	32	MLB	NYM	100%	411	366	80	13	1	17	37	111	5	1	0	219	299	399	698	180	261	27	9	310	96	-2	+0	-3	+7	+12	1.4
2035	33	MLB	NYM	100%	370	329	70	11	0	15	33	101	5	0	0	213	294	383	677	170	255	27	9	303	90	-4	+0	-4	+7	+10	0.9
2036	34	MLB	NYM	96%	319	284	58	9	0	12	28	90	4	0	0	204	285	363	647	158	248	28	9	293	82	-6	+0	-5	+6	+9	0.4
2027	25	MLB	NYM	100%	505	449	104	18	1	22	44	129	7	1	0	232	310	423	733	192	271	26	9	315	99	-0	+0	+1	+9	+14	2.4
2028	26	MLB	NYM	100%	508	451	105	18	1	23	45	130	7	1	0	233	312	430	742	197	271	26	9	316	100	+0	+0	+1	+9	+14	2.5
2029	27	MLB	NYM	100%	503	446	103	18	1	22	45	129	7	1	0	231	311	424	735	193	271	26	9	316	100	+0	+0	+1	+9	+14	2.5
2030	28	MLB	NYM	100%	495	441	101	17	1	22	44	128	7	1	0	229	309	422	731	193	270	26	9	315	99	-0	+0	-0	+9	+14	2.3
2031	29	MLB	NYM	100%	483	429	98	17	1	21	44	125	7	1	0	228	310	420	730	191	269	26	9	313	98	-1	+0	-1	+9	+14	2.1
2032	30	MLB	NYM	100%	471	419	95	16	1	20	43	123	6	1	0	227	308	413	721	186	268	26	9	311	96	-2	+0	-2	+8	+13	1.9
2033	31	MLB	NYM	100%	442	393	89	15	1	19	40	117	6	1	0	226	308	415	722	188	265	26	9	306	93	-4	+0	-2	+8	+13	1.5
2034	32	MLB	NYM	100%	411	366	80	13	1	17	37	111	5	1	0	219	299	399	698	180	260	27	9	300	88	-6	+0	-3	+7	+12	1.1
2035	33	MLB	NYM	100%	370	329	70	11	0	15	33	101	5	0	0	213	294	383	677	170	255	27	9	293	82	-7	+0	-4	+7	+10	0.6
2036	34	MLB	NYM	96%	305	271	55	8	0	12	27	86	4	0	0	203	285	365	650	162	248	28	9	284	75	-9	+0	-4	+5	+9	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5700	5078	1150	195	11	247	507	1490	75	11	1	226	306	415	721	189	268	26	9	312	97	-20	+2	+17	+104	+162	27.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	130	22	1	28	58	170	9	1	0	225	305	411	716	187	266	26	9	312	97	-2	+0	+2	+12	+18	3.1
Career	—			—	6790	6037	1383	241	12	310	601	1825	99	20	7	229	309	427	736	198	272	27	9	324	106	+46	+1	+17	+121	+192	38.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	132	23	1	30	58	175	9	2	1	228	309	427	736	199	271	27	9	324	106	+4	+0	+2	+12	+18	3.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	GCL Mets	—	31	26	12	4	0	2	4	4	1	0	1	462	548	846	1.395	385	500	13	13	589	309	+7	-0	—	—	+1	0.8
2021	19	A+	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	333	279	69	13	1	22	40	82	8	6	3	247	358	538	895	290	260	25	12	384	152	+19	+0	—	—	+9	2.9
2021	19	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	67	48	20	5	0	2	15	7	3	2	2	417	576	646	1.222	229	450	10	22	523	258	+12	-0	—	—	+2	1.4
2022	20	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	199	158	37	6	0	9	34	52	5	0	0	234	386	443	829	209	283	26	17	371	142	+9	+0	—	—	+6	1.5
2022	20	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	296	253	70	16	0	18	36	71	3	0	0	277	373	553	927	277	310	24	12	398	163	+21	+0	—	—	+8	3.0
2023	21	MLB	New York Mets	—	423	382	80	12	0	25	34	110	6	2	0	209	284	437	722	228	222	26	8	318	101	+1	+0	+21	+8	+12	4.3
2023	21	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	19	16	4	1	0	2	3	8	0	1	0	250	368	688	1.056	438	333	42	16	444	198	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2024	22	MLB	New York Mets	—	342	308	73	14	2	11	30	86	2	1	1	237	309	403	711	166	291	25	9	316	100	+0	-0	+9	+6	+10	2.5
2025	23	MLB	New York Mets	—	277	246	63	12	1	11	27	73	4	0	0	256	339	447	787	191	321	26	10	350	126	+8	+0	+2	+7	+8	2.6
2025	23	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	107	93	24	4	0	12	11	33	3	0	0	258	355	688	1.043	430	250	31	10	441	196	+12	+0	—	—	+3	1.5
2025	23	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	24	22	6	0	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	273	333	409	742	136	294	17	4	335	114	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1042	936	216	38	3	47	91	269	12	3	1	231	307	428	735	198	271	26	9	326	108	+9	+0	+32	+21	+30	9.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Matt Wieterslast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,387 PA	11	4,387	146	9	250	313	411	+78	+81	30.0	28.4
	/162	664	22	1	250	313	411	+11.9	+12.2	4.5	pk7: 27
#2Yan Gomeslast yr '24 career totals — 13 seasons, 4,082 PA	13	4,082	137	8	246	295	412	+69	+103	27.4	26.2
#2Yan Gomeslast yr '24 career totals — 13 seasons, 4,082 PA	/162	664	22	1	246	295	412	+11.2	+16.8	4.4	pk7: 25
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 15 projected seasons	15	6,164	268	13	229	305	420	+110	+98	30.5	24.6
	/162	664	29	1	229	305	420	+11.9	+10.5	3.3	pk7: 19
#3Jason Castrolast yr '22 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,381 PA	12	3,381	97	6	227	312	387	+60	+77	22.5	21.6
	/162	664	19	1	227	312	387	+11.9	+15.1	4.4	pk7: 21
#4Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	11	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
	/162	664	24	9	241	275	417	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
#5Freddy Galvislast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	10	4,238	109	57	246	292	387	+42	+68	18.0	17.6
	/162	664	17	9	246	292	387	+6.6	+10.6	2.8	pk7: 17
#6John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#6John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Francisco Alvarez (OGILVIE)	24	45	50	40	50	242/311/412	170	292	16	0	26%	8%	105	+2.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Gleyber Torres 2021 · MLB	24	50→53	58→60	46→50	52	262/334/461	199	295	27	6	21%	9%	127	+3.6	256/324/408	152	299	18	12	20%	9%	108	+2.3	259/345/399	140	294	17	6	17%	11%	113	+2.9
✕Max Ramirez 2009 · MLB	24	52	53→55	44→40	49	260/341/437	178	335	21	3	28%	10%	123	+3.3	223/295/347	124	305	14	3	30%	8%	81	+0.4	247/320/393	145	287	16	2	19%	9%	101	+1.0
✕James Darnell 2012 · MLB	25	49→53	55	46→40	50	253/318/440	188	288	23	4	21%	8%	115	+2.7	231/290/390	159	279	19	6	24%	7%	90	+1.0	208/285/376	168	235	23	3	23%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Luis Urías 2022 · MLB	25	48→58	54→55	47→45	53	248/334/428	180	288	21	7	22%	10%	118	+3.0	228/325/382	154	274	18	5	23%	10%	103	+1.9	211/314/346	136	257	16	4	23%	10%	88	+0.7
●Pedro Álvarez 2011 · MLB	24	46	56→60	42→45	44	239/302/433	194	316	24	4	31%	8%	105	+2.1	232/302/422	190	306	24	3	31%	9%	103	+1.9	238/310/455	217	291	31	4	29%	9%	108	+2.1
✕Logan O'Hoppe 2023 · MLB	23	44→48	52→60	45	49	231/306/395	163	263	22	7	22%	8%	98	+1.6	237/300/420	183	287	26	5	27%	7%	102	+1.9	232/287/415	183	287	28	2	29%	6%	94	+0.9
✕Welington Castillo 2013 · MLB	26	45→55	54→55	43→30	46	235/306/409	173	294	22	2	28%	8%	102	+1.8	246/315/397	151	306	18	3	24%	7%	102	+1.9	252/308/433	181	306	25	1	26%	7%	105	+1.4
●Paul DeJong 2019 · MLB	25	47→50	57→60	41→45	41	248/303/447	199	306	25	3	28%	6%	111	+2.5	234/312/425	191	277	24	7	25%	9%	108	+2.3	222/308/410	189	257	25	7	24%	9%	101	+1.2
✕Josmil Pinto 2014 · MLB	25	52→59	52→55	40	48	262/320/430	168	311	19	2	22%	8%	112	+2.6	237/297/384	147	289	17	2	23%	7%	91	+1.1	217/277/352	136	266	16	0	24%	7%	71	-0.1
●William Contreras 2023 · MLB	25	49→59	57→55	49→45	48	256/325/450	193	317	26	4	27%	9%	120	+3.1	279/359/458	179	336	20	7	21%	11%	135	+4.2	280/367/450	170	331	18	6	20%	12%	131	+4.2
✕Jordan Diaz 2023 · MLB	22	53→56	55	42→30	43	274/310/456	182	307	23	3	20%	5%	115	+2.8	254/298/416	162	298	21	2	22%	5%	100	+1.7	246/294/401	155	288	21	0	23%	5%	91	+0.8
●Sean Murphy 2020 · MLB	25	43→50	53→60	45→30	45	227/287/403	175	272	20	4	25%	7%	92	+1.2	237/322/431	194	286	23	3	25%	10%	114	+2.7	242/337/441	199	283	23	0	22%	10%	120	+2.6
●Mark Vientos 2023 · MLB	23	46→49	57→60	37→30	39	239/293/430	191	334	27	2	36%	7%	102	+1.8	244/301/443	199	317	26	2	30%	7%	108	+2.3	241/301/444	202	300	27	1	28%	7%	107	+1.9
●Jedd Gyorko 2014 · MLB	25	48→53	57→60	42→45	44	255/302/450	195	295	26	5	24%	6%	111	+2.5	241/300/416	175	280	24	3	23%	7%	101	+1.8	257/331/460	203	288	28	4	21%	10%	123	+2.4
●Josh Jung 2022 · AAA	24	53→51	55→60	45	43	269/321/459	190	327	22	6	25%	6%	121	+3.2	251/297/444	193	324	25	6	30%	5%	107	+2.2	262/312/407	145	321	17	5	23%	6%	101	+1.1
●Isaac Paredes 2023 · MLB	24	42→49	55→60	39→40	56	222/309/408	185	235	23	2	18%	10%	103	+1.9	240/338/440	200	255	26	2	18%	11%	123	+3.3	242/348/439	196	257	26	1	17%	11%	124	+3.1
✕Maikel Franco 2017 · MLB	24	49→55	53→55	46→40	47	254/303/424	170	274	21	3	17%	6%	104	+2.0	242/295/419	177	252	24	2	15%	7%	99	+1.7	251/305/434	183	258	25	1	14%	7%	94	+0.9
★Mark Reynolds 2008 · MLB	24	50→55	58→65	43→50	44	254/318/460	206	331	25	3	30%	8%	120	+3.1	244/329/476	232	329	30	11	33%	11%	128	+3.7	230/329/472	242	307	33	13	34%	12%	123	+3.4
●John Buck 2005 · MLB	25	45→53	56→60	44→30	42	240/289/425	185	302	26	6	30%	6%	98	+1.6	239/296/402	163	284	20	3	23%	7%	95	+1.4	251/312/435	184	301	23	1	24%	7%	105	+1.4
✕Ryan Casteel 2015 · AA	24	45→48	55	43→40	41	239/285/420	181	296	24	4	28%	6%	95	+1.4	226/263/353	127	312	14	5	31%	5%	68	-0.5	194/252/391	198	247	28	0	34%	7%	70	-0.2