Ketel Marte

2B Arizona Diamondbacks
Age 33 S/R 6'0" / 210 lbs MLB HR -11% Svc 10.942 · Ctrl thru 2031
Overview
MLB40-MANExtFA 2032
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WAR
202430MLBARI583.292/.378/.5603671536.0
202531MLBARI556.283/.378/.5172841454.6
202632MLBARI624.249/.318/.4322241032.0
2027PROJ33MLBARI473.285/.355/.5162341403.7
2028PROJ34MLBARI416.274/.343/.4911911312.2
2029PROJ35MLBARI348.262/.330/.4641501201.2
Last 3 seasons WAR 12.7  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 7.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractCONFIRMED
Control thru2031Service10.942First FA2032
2027Ext$16M2028Ext$16M2029Ext$15M2030Ext$15M2031Ext$17M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
xwOBA90
Avg EV87
Bat Spd79
Barrel%73
Speed36
Form.281/.352/.471 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .280/.348/.512
CompsCarl Everett (age 33) · Jose Valentin (age 33) · AJ Pollock (age 33)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 140140vR 140
AVG/OBP/SLG.285 / .355 / .516
PA473
HR23
K%15
BB%9
BABIP295
ISO229
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +22.7 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+23BATRUN: +0.5 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.9 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+1FLDPOS: +1.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +10.2 runs (Replacement-level credit)+10REPTotal WAR: +3.70+3.7WAR
0.02.04.03.72.21.20.427282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract
ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT
xAVG
900.285
POWER
Barrel%
7311.7
Avg EV
8791.6
Bat Spd
7974.4
SPEED
Sprint
3626.8
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%10%▲▲8% over 105 PA (60d) · proj 15%
BB%9%·10% over 105 PA (60d) · proj 9%
ISO.190▼▼.118 over 93 AB (60d) · proj .232
HR/BB4.4%▼▼1.2% over 86 BBE (60d) · proj 6.9%
BABIP.283·.259 over 85 BIP (60d) · proj .286
SLASH.281/.352/.471▼proj .280/.348/.512
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1244 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
426
818
—
wRC+
166
135
◀◀L
wOBA
414
368
◀L
ISO
276
224
◀◀L
BABIP
316
278
◀L
K%
14.8%
17.8%
◀◀L
BB%
6.6%
11.7%
▶▶R
Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2015
Service   10.942 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2031
First FA Year   2032
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Ext$16M+3.7$38M+$22M
2028Ext$16M+2.2$16M+$2M
2029Ext$15M+1.2$8M-$4M
2030Ext$15M+0.4$1M-$10M
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $62M $64M +$11M
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201117 ROKDSL Mariners — 252220 57532 26352 166 259343336679 77299 1410 308 28 — — — — — —
201218 AClinton LumberKings — 1714 4000 230 10 286375286661 364 1812 295 65 — — — — — —
201319 A+High Desert Mavericks — 9286 22021 4110 43 256289337626 81284 124 275 40 — — — — — —
201319 AClinton LumberKings — 406378 1161550 15391 167 307335373708 66339 104 309 84 — — — — — —
201420 AAATacoma Rainiers — 9080 25502 8130 60 312375450825 138343 149 361 109 — — — — — —
201420 AAJackson Generals — 472443 1342762 19651 2310 302333404737 102346 144 322 92 — — — — — —
201420 INTLGigantes del Cibao — 2524 5100 130 10 208240250490 42238 124 224 38 — — — — — —
201521 MLBSeattle Mariners — 247219 621432 24430 84 283354402756 119341 1710 335 115 +4 +0 +5 +6 +5 2.1
201521 AAATacoma Rainiers — 287261 821223 20320 203 314363410773 96345 117 340 98 — — — — — —
201521 INTLGigantes del Cibao — 2019 4000 011 20 211250211461 222 50 218 34 — — — — — —
201622 MLBSeattle Mariners — 466437 1132121 18842 115 259291323614 64313 184 272 72 -16 +0 +2 +5 +10 0.2
201622 AAATacoma Rainiers — 3128 6200 210 20 214267286552 71214 36 245 42 — — — — — —
201723 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 255223 581125 29371 31 260348395742 135290 1511 333 100 +0 +0 +3 +7 +6 1.7
201723 AAAReno Aces — 338311 1052376 25342 72 338391514905 177365 107 398 108 — — — — — —
201723 INTLGigantes del Cibao — 8773 20301 1071 60 274369356725 82284 811 323 105 — — — — — —
201824 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 580520 135261214 54793 61 260333437769 177282 149 339 106 +4 +1 +6 +2 +13 2.7
201925 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 628569 18736932 53864 102 329390592982 264342 148 425 167 +50 +1 -1 +2 +14 6.8
202026 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 195181 521412 7214 10 287328409737 122311 114 324 98 -0 +0 +0 +1 +4 0.5
202127 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 374340 10829114 31602 20 318378532910 215352 168 398 146 +21 +0 -6 +1 +8 2.5
202228 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 558492 11842212 551016 51 240324407730 167276 1810 324 97 -2 +1 -2 +2 +12 1.1
202329 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 650569 15726925 711095 82 276361485846 209300 1711 371 131 +24 +1 +0 +2 +14 4.3
202430 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 583504 14723236 651065 71 292378560938 268299 1811 402 153 +37 +1 +7 +2 +13 6.0
202531 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 556480 13628028 64839 42 283378517895 233290 1512 392 145 +30 +0 +2 +2 +12 4.6
202632 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 624562 14031322 51866 40 249318432751 183257 148 331 103 +2 +1 +1 +2 +14 2.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 57165096 141330146193 52289547 6919 277350468818 191301 169 359 129 +197 +6 +17 +36 +124 38.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201117 ROK MLEDSL Mariners — 252228 40321 18432 166 175242219461 44206 177 209 28 — — — — — —
201218 A MLEClinton LumberKings — 1714 4000 240 10 286375286661 349 2412 265 65 — — — — — —
201319 A+ MLEHigh Desert Mavericks — 9287 19011 3150 43 218244276520 57256 163 228 40 — — — — — —
201319 A MLEClinton LumberKings — 406382 1161340 11541 167 304325359684 55338 133 292 84 — — — — — —
201420 AAA MLETacoma Rainiers — 9082 25502 6160 60 305352439791 134332 187 330 109 — — — — — —
201420 AA MLEJackson Generals — 472450 1342862 12821 2310 298317400717 102344 173 304 92 — — — — — —
201521 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 247219 621432 24430 84 283354402756 119341 1710 337 115 +4 +0 +5 +6 +5 2.1
201521 AAA MLETacoma Rainiers — 287267 811222 14390 203 303338386724 82334 145 313 98 — — — — — —
201622 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 466437 1132121 18842 115 259291323614 64313 184 274 72 -16 +0 +2 +5 +10 0.2
201622 AAA MLETacoma Rainiers — 3129 6200 110 20 207233276509 69205 33 231 42 — — — — — —
201723 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 255226 571025 26371 31 252332381713 128290 1510 316 100 +0 +0 +3 +7 +6 1.7
201723 AAA MLEReno Aces — 338318 931855 18482 72 292334428762 135332 145 328 108 — — — — — —
201824 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 580523 131231015 51793 61 250321419739 168282 149 325 106 +4 +1 +6 +2 +13 2.7
201925 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 628571 18232734 51864 102 319379578957 259342 148 415 167 +50 +1 -1 +2 +14 6.8
202026 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 195181 501212 7214 10 276318387704 110311 114 313 98 -0 +0 +0 +1 +4 0.5
202127 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 374343 10626115 28602 20 309365522886 213352 167 385 146 +21 +0 -6 +1 +8 2.5
202228 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 558495 11437213 521016 51 230311392703 162276 189 311 97 -2 +1 -2 +2 +12 1.1
202329 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 650571 15323726 691095 82 268352469821 201300 1711 362 131 +24 +1 +0 +2 +14 4.3
202430 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 583511 14620238 581065 71 286364556920 270299 1810 394 153 +37 +1 +7 +2 +13 6.0
202531 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 556486 13525030 58839 42 278365514880 237290 1510 383 145 +30 +0 +2 +2 +12 4.6
202632 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 624567 13728223 46866 40 242305420725 178257 147 320 103 +2 +1 +1 +2 +14 2.0
201117 ROK MLEDSL Mariners — 252228 40321 18432 166 175242219461 44211 177 209 28 — — — — — —
201117 ROK RAWDSL Mariners — 252220 57532 26352 166 259343336679 77299 1410 308 28 — — — — — —
201218 A MLEClinton LumberKings — 1714 4000 240 10 286375286661 400 2412 265 65 — — — — — —
201218 A RAWClinton LumberKings — 1714 4000 230 10 286375286661 364 1812 295 65 — — — — — —
201319 A MLE2 teams — 498470 1361361 13701 2010 289310349659 60336 143 280 76 — — — — — —
201319 A RAW2 teams — 498464 1381571 19501 2010 297326366693 69329 104 303 76 — — — — — —
201420 AA MLE3 teams — 587557 1643464 181031 3010 294318399716 104350 183 308 95 — — — — — —
201420 AA RAW3 teams — 587547 1643364 28811 3010 300335404739 104341 145 324 95 — — — — — —
201521 AAA MLE3 teams — 554503 1482754 40851 307 294347392739 97344 157 324 106 — — — — — —
201521 AAA RAW3 teams — 554499 1482655 44761 307 297355399754 102338 148 333 106 — — — — — —
201622 MLB MLE2 teams — 497466 1192321 19852 135 255287320607 64305 174 272 70 -18 +1 +2 +5 +11 0.1
201622 MLB RAW2 teams — 497465 1192321 20852 135 256290320610 65306 174 270 70 -18 +1 +2 +5 +11 0.1
201723 AAA MLE3 teams — 680621 17232811 50974 163 277335407742 130311 147 323 105 — — — — — —
201723 AAA RAW3 teams — 680607 18337912 64784 163 301372451823 150328 119 364 105 — — — — — —
201824 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 580523 131231015 51793 61 250321419739 168269 149 325 106 +4 +1 +6 +2 +13 2.7
201824 MLB RAWArizona Diamondbacks — 580520 135261214 54793 61 260333437769 177282 149 339 106 +4 +1 +6 +2 +13 2.7
201925 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 628571 18232734 51864 102 319379578957 259327 148 415 167 +50 +1 -1 +2 +14 6.8
201925 MLB RAWArizona Diamondbacks — 628569 18736932 53864 102 329390592982 264342 148 425 167 +50 +1 -1 +2 +14 6.8
202026 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 195181 501212 7214 10 276318387704 110298 114 313 98 -0 +0 +0 +1 +4 0.5
202026 MLB RAWArizona Diamondbacks — 195181 521412 7214 10 287328409737 122311 114 324 98 -0 +0 +0 +1 +4 0.5
202127 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 374343 10626115 28602 20 309365522886 213338 167 385 146 +21 +0 -6 +1 +8 2.5
202127 MLB RAWArizona Diamondbacks — 374340 10829114 31602 20 318378532910 215352 168 398 146 +21 +0 -6 +1 +8 2.5
202228 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 558495 11437213 521016 51 230311392703 162262 189 311 97 -2 +1 -2 +2 +12 1.1
202228 MLB RAWArizona Diamondbacks — 558492 11842212 551016 51 240324407730 167276 1810 324 97 -2 +1 -2 +2 +12 1.1
202329 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 650571 15323726 691095 82 268352469821 201288 1711 362 131 +24 +1 +0 +2 +14 4.3
202329 MLB RAWArizona Diamondbacks — 650569 15726925 711095 82 276361485846 209300 1711 371 131 +24 +1 +0 +2 +14 4.3
202430 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 583511 14620238 581065 71 286364556920 270287 1810 394 153 +37 +1 +7 +2 +13 6.0
202430 MLB RAWArizona Diamondbacks — 583504 14723236 651065 71 292378560938 268299 1811 402 153 +37 +1 +7 +2 +13 6.0
202531 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 556486 13525030 58839 42 278365514880 237279 1510 383 145 +30 +0 +2 +2 +12 4.6
202531 MLB RAWArizona Diamondbacks — 556480 13628028 64839 42 283378517895 233290 1512 392 145 +30 +0 +2 +2 +12 4.6
202632 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 624567 13728223 46866 40 242305420725 178246 147 320 103 +2 +1 +1 +2 +14 2.0
202632 MLB RAWArizona Diamondbacks — 624562 14031322 51866 40 249318432751 183257 148 331 103 +2 +1 +1 +2 +14 2.0
201117 ROK MLEDSL Mariners — 252230 40321 18432 166 174242217459 43206 177 209 28 — — — — — —
201218 A MLEClinton LumberKings — 1715 4000 240 10 267375267642 349 2412 265 65 — — — — — —
201319 A MLE2 teams — 498481 1361361 13701 2010 283310341651 58323 143 280 76 — — — — — —
201420 AA MLE3 teams — 587563 1643464 181031 3010 291318394712 103342 183 308 95 — — — — — —
201521 AAA MLE3 teams — 554508 1482754 40851 307 291347388735 96337 157 324 106 — — — — — —
201622 MLB MLE2 teams — 497473 1192321 19852 135 252287315602 63306 174 272 70 — — — — — —
201723 AAA MLE3 teams — 680621 17232811 50974 163 277335407742 130314 147 323 105 — — — — — —
201824 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 580521 131231015 51793 61 251321420741 169282 149 325 106 — — — — — —
201925 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 628568 18232734 51864 102 320379581960 261342 148 415 167 — — — — — —
202026 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 195182 501212 7214 10 275318385702 110311 114 313 98 — — — — — —
202127 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 374341 10626115 28602 20 311365525890 214352 167 385 146 — — — — — —
202228 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 558495 11437213 521016 51 230311392703 162276 189 311 97 — — — — — —
202329 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 650571 15323726 691095 82 268352469821 201300 1711 362 131 — — — — — —
202430 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 583515 14620238 581065 71 283364551916 268299 1810 394 153 — — — — — —
202531 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 556484 13525030 58839 42 279365517882 238290 1510 383 145 — — — — — —
202632 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 624567 13728223 46866 40 242305420725 178257 147 320 103 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202430 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 583515 14620238 581065 71 283364551916 268299 1810 394 153 — — — — — —
202531 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 556484 13525030 58839 42 279365517882 238290 1510 383 145 — — — — — —
202632 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 624567 13728223 46866 40 242305420725 178257 147 320 103 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202733 MLB MLEARI 100% 544486 13725228 47846 51 280351512863 231286 159 376 140 +26 +1 +1 +2 +12 3.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202733 MLB CTXARI 100% 473424 12124223 41735 41 285355516871 230295 159 379 140 +23 +0 +1 +2 +10 3.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202834 MLB MLEARI 100% 416374 9917120 35674 11 270339488827 218277 168 361 131 +15 -0 -4 +1 +9 2.2
202935 MLB MLEARI 100% 348313 8013116 29593 01 258326461787 204268 178 345 120 +8 -0 -5 +1 +8 1.2
203036 MLB MLEARI 100% 271245 609112 22482 00 246313434747 188258 188 329 109 +3 +0 -6 +1 +6 0.4
202834 MLB CTXARI 100% 416374 10320219 35674 11 274343491834 217286 168 364 131 +15 -0 -4 +1 +9 2.2
202935 MLB CTXARI 100% 348313 8115115 29593 01 262330464794 202275 178 348 120 +8 -0 -5 +1 +8 1.2
203036 MLB CTXARI 100% 271245 6111111 22482 00 249316436752 186266 188 331 109 +3 +0 -6 +1 +6 0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 67516028 165834750238 608106956 7021 275347468815 193298 169 358 115 +223 +6 +2 +39 +146 42.5
/ 162G— A+C — 650580 15933523 591035 72 274346467814 193296 169 358 115 +22 +1 +0 +4 +14 4.1
Career— MLE — 93418463 229441866290 707146569 17853 271332439771 168296 168 338 115 +246 +6 +3 +41 +157 46.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650589 16029520 491025 124 272333440773 168297 168 338 115 +22 +1 +0 +4 +14 4.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2017 AAAReno Aces · 338 PAwOBA .387 → .328 (−58)K% 10.1% → 14.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA10.06%÷0.919×1.290——14.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.10%÷1.007×0.710—×1.0485.24%
HBP% /PA0.59%—×0.980—×1.0480.61%
Singles /BIP24.91%÷0.992×0.900×1.020×1.04824.16%
Doubles /BIP8.30%÷1.089×0.810×1.020×1.0486.60%
Triples /BIP2.53%÷1.150×0.810×1.020×1.0481.90%
Home runs /BIP2.17%÷1.044×0.780—×1.0481.70%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 98, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 84, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .387 → .328; ISO .177 → .135; BABIP .365 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAATacoma Rainiers · 31 PAwOBA .246 → .231 (−15)K% 3.2% → 4.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA3.23%÷1.041×1.290——4.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.45%÷1.115×0.710—×1.0504.31%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.980—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP14.81%÷0.987×0.900—×1.05014.19%
Doubles /BIP7.41%÷0.901×0.810—×1.0506.99%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.063×0.810—×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.896×0.780—×1.0500.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 97, 2B 80, 3B 113, K 108, BB 123 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .246 → .231; ISO .071 → .071; BABIP .214 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAATacoma Rainiers · 287 PAwOBA .335 → .313 (−22)K% 11.1% → 13.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.15%÷1.049×1.290——13.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.97%÷1.046×0.710—×1.0504.96%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.980—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP28.38%÷0.995×0.900×1.026×1.05027.67%
Doubles /BIP5.24%÷0.910×0.810×1.026×1.0505.03%
Triples /BIP0.87%÷0.900×0.810×1.026×1.0500.85%
Home runs /BIP1.31%÷1.127×0.780—×1.0500.95%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 99, 2B 82, 3B 80, K 110, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .335 → .313; ISO .096 → .086; BABIP .345 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAJackson Generals · 472 PAwOBA .316 → .304 (−12)K% 13.8% → 17.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.77%÷0.968×1.220——17.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA3.81%÷1.083×0.680—×1.0502.51%
HBP% /PA0.21%—×0.840—×1.0500.19%
Singles /BIP26.19%÷1.003×0.920×1.025×1.05025.86%
Doubles /BIP7.14%÷0.955×0.910×1.025×1.0507.33%
Triples /BIP1.59%÷0.975×0.880×1.025×1.0501.54%
Home runs /BIP0.53%÷0.930×0.800—×1.0500.48%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 101, 2B 91, 3B 95, K 94, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .316 → .304; ISO .102 → .101; BABIP .346 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAATacoma Rainiers · 90 PAwOBA .359 → .330 (−29)K% 14.4% → 18.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.44%÷1.017×1.290——18.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.89%÷1.052×0.710—×1.0506.30%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.980—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP26.87%÷1.016×0.900×1.049×1.05026.22%
Doubles /BIP7.46%÷0.937×0.810×1.049×1.0507.10%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.971×0.810×1.049×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP2.99%÷0.963×0.780—×1.0502.54%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 103, 2B 87, 3B 94, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.

Result: wOBA .359 → .330; ISO .138 → .125; BABIP .343 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AClinton LumberKings · 406 PAwOBA .303 → .292 (−11)K% 9.6% → 13.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA9.61%÷0.977×1.360——13.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA3.69%÷1.013×0.690—×1.0302.59%
HBP% /PA0.25%—×0.780—×1.0300.20%
Singles /BIP28.32%÷0.971×0.920×1.050×1.03029.01%
Doubles /BIP4.42%÷1.049×0.830×1.050×1.0303.79%
Triples /BIP1.47%÷1.118×0.910×1.050×1.0301.30%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.964×0.800—×1.0300.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 94, 2B 110, 3B 124, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .303 → .292; ISO .066 → .057; BABIP .339 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 A+High Desert Mavericks · 92 PAwOBA .268 → .228 (−40)K% 12.0% → 16.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.96%÷0.960×1.340——16.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA4.35%÷1.037×0.710—×1.0423.10%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.790—×1.0420.00%
Singles /BIP25.33%÷1.038×0.910×1.011×1.04223.40%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷0.990×0.820×1.011×1.0420.00%
Triples /BIP2.67%÷1.083×0.760×1.011×1.0421.97%
Home runs /BIP1.33%÷1.251×0.920—×1.0421.02%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 108, 2B 98, 3B 117, K 92, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.

Result: wOBA .268 → .228; ISO .081 → .060; BABIP .284 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AClinton LumberKings · 17 PAwOBA .288 → .265 (−23)K% 17.6% → 25.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.65%÷0.949×1.360——25.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.76%÷0.917×0.690—×1.0459.25%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780—×1.0450.00%
Singles /BIP36.36%÷1.002×0.920—×1.04534.88%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷0.935×0.830—×1.0450.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.050×0.910—×1.0450.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.917×0.800—×1.0450.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 100, 2B 87, 3B 110, K 90, BB 83 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .288 → .265; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .364 → .349. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .