Alex Bregman

3B Chicago Cubs
Age 33 R/R 5'10" / 190 lbs MLB HR -8% Svc 10.407 · Ctrl thru 2030
Overview
MLB40-MANExtFA 2031
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WAR
202430MLBHOU634.260/.317/.4532631133.5
202531MLBBOS495.273/.361/.4621811253.2
202632MLBCHC702.265/.358/.4642831304.5
2027PROJ33MLBCHC569.257/.342/.4422131213.2
2028PROJ34MLBCHC506.246/.330/.4181721111.7
2029PROJ35MLBCHC439.234/.317/.3911411010.8
Last 3 seasons WAR 11.2  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 5.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractCONFIRMED
Control thru2030Service10.407First FA2031Options1
2027Ext$35M2028Ext$35M2029Ext$35M2030Ext$35M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
xwOBA68
Avg EV49
Bat Spd39
Barrel%37
Speed23
Form.288/.368/.563 ▲▲ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .256/.339/.443
CompsHerbert Perry Jr. (age 33) · Zack Cozart (age 33) · Juan Uribe (age 32)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 124121vR 113
AVG/OBP/SLG.257 / .342 / .442
PA569
HR21
K%15
BB%10
BABIP269
ISO188
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +14.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+14BATRUN: -0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: +2.4 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+2FLDPOS: +2.0 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +12.3 runs (Replacement-level credit)+12REPTotal WAR: +3.20+3.2WAR
0.02.55.03.21.70.80.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$94M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract
ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT
xAVG
530.254
POWER
Barrel%
376.5
Avg EV
4989.0
Bat Spd
3970.2
SPEED
Sprint
2326.2
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%10%▲▲7% over 98 PA (60d) · proj 15%
BB%10%·10% over 98 PA (60d) · proj 10%
ISO.274▲▲.440 over 84 AB (60d) · proj .187
HR/BB7.8%▲▲11.7% over 77 BBE (60d) · proj 5.1%
BABIP.269·.294 over 68 BIP (60d) · proj .267
SLASH.288/.368/.563▲▲proj .256/.339/.443
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1252 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
355
897
—
wRC+
114
121
▶R
wOBA
336
347
▶R
ISO
155
196
▶▶R
BABIP
278
278
—
K%
12.7%
14.5%
◀L
BB%
10.1%
7.5%
◀◀L
Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2016
Service   10.407 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2030
First FA Year   2031
OPT
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Ext$35M+3.2$30M-$5M
2028Ext$35M+1.7$13M-$19M
2029Ext$35M+0.8$3M-$26M
2030Ext$35M———
Totals $140M $45M -$75M
Options · projected decision
2027PLAYER OPT$35.0M / $0.0M buyoutEXERCISE
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$75M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201521 A+Lancaster JetHawks — 178160 51843 12171 84 319370475845 156336 107 363 101 — — — — — —
201521 AQuad Cities River Bandits — 133112 29501 17133 52 259371330702 71283 1013 326 62 — — — — — —
201622 MLBHouston Astros — 217201 531338 15520 20 264315478792 214317 247 345 118 +5 +0 +2 +2 +5 1.4
201622 AAAFresno Grizzlies — 8378 26606 5120 21 3333736411.015 308333 146 438 114 — — — — — —
201622 AACorpus Christi Hooks — 285236 7016214 42266 53 297415559975 263286 915 425 122 — — — — — —
201723 MLBHouston Astros — 626556 15839519 55977 175 284356475831 191311 159 363 128 +21 +1 +5 +2 +14 4.4
201824 MLBHouston Astros — 705594 17051131 968512 104 286396532928 246289 1214 406 157 +48 +0 -0 +3 +15 6.7
201925 MLBHouston Astros — 690554 16437241 119839 51 2964285921.020 296281 1217 437 180 +66 +1 +2 +2 +15 8.7
202026 MLBHouston Astros — 180153 371216 24262 00 242352451803 209254 1413 356 122 +5 +0 +1 +1 +4 1.1
202127 MLBHouston Astros — 400348 9417012 44534 10 270359422781 152286 1311 348 116 +7 +0 +2 +2 +9 2.0
202127 AAASugar Land Skeeters — 4436 9301 721 00 250386417803 167242 516 365 93 — — — — — —
202228 MLBHouston Astros — 656548 14238023 877711 12 259372454826 195260 1213 364 130 +23 -1 +6 +2 +14 4.6
202329 MLBHouston Astros — 724622 16328425 92878 31 262364441805 178270 1213 360 128 +24 +0 +1 +3 +16 4.5
202430 MLBHouston Astros — 634581 15130226 44865 31 260317453770 193264 147 338 113 +10 +0 +8 +2 +14 3.5
202531 MLBBoston Red Sox — 495433 11828018 51709 11 273361462823 189288 1410 365 125 +15 -0 +4 +2 +11 3.2
202632 MLBChicago Cubs — 702608 16133228 7610212 31 265358464822 199275 1511 362 130 +25 +0 +1 +3 +15 4.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 60295198 141132620237 70381879 4616 271367479845 207280 1412 372 138 +271 +3 +32 +23 +131 46.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201521 A+ MLELancaster JetHawks — 178163 47733 9251 84 288329423753 135305 145 317 101 — — — — — —
201521 A MLEQuad Cities River Bandits — 133119 26401 10183 52 218295277573 59245 148 260 62 — — — — — —
201622 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 217201 521238 15520 20 259310468778 209317 247 342 118 +5 +0 +2 +2 +5 1.4
201622 AAA MLEFresno Grizzlies — 8379 21405 4160 21 266301506808 241281 195 337 114 — — — — — —
201622 AA MLECorpus Christi Hooks — 285248 6314210 30306 53 254349448796 194254 1111 349 122 — — — — — —
201723 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 626558 15737520 53977 175 281351473824 192311 158 357 128 +21 +1 +5 +2 +14 4.4
201824 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 705596 16848132 948512 104 282390527917 245289 1213 401 157 +48 +0 -0 +3 +15 6.7
201925 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 690556 16335242 117839 51 2934245901.014 297281 1217 434 180 +66 +1 +2 +2 +15 8.7
202026 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 180154 361116 23262 00 234341435776 201254 1413 348 122 +5 +0 +1 +1 +4 1.1
202127 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 400352 9316012 40534 10 264346412758 148286 1310 339 116 +7 +0 +2 +2 +9 2.0
202127 AAA MLESugar Land Skeeters — 4438 9301 521 00 237341395736 158218 511 305 93 — — — — — —
202228 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 656549 14136024 867711 12 257368454822 197260 1213 360 130 +23 -1 +6 +2 +14 4.6
202329 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 724623 16126426 91878 31 258360438798 180270 1213 357 128 +24 +0 +1 +3 +16 4.5
202430 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 634582 15028227 43865 31 258314452766 194264 147 335 113 +10 +0 +8 +2 +14 3.5
202531 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 495436 11425018 48709 11 261347443790 181288 1410 353 125 +15 -0 +4 +2 +11 3.2
202632 MLB MLEChicago Cubs — 702610 16132229 7410212 31 264355466820 202275 1511 361 130 +25 +0 +1 +3 +15 4.5
201521 A+ MLE2 teams — 311282 731034 19434 136 259315358673 99289 146 293 84 — — — — — —
201521 A+ RAW2 teams — 311272 801344 29304 136 294370415786 121314 109 347 84 — — — — — —
201622 AA MLE3 teams — 585528 13630523 49976 94 258328464792 206276 178 345 119 — — — — — —
201622 AA RAW3 teams — 585515 14935528 62906 94 289372540912 250304 1511 397 119 — — — — — —
201723 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 626558 15737520 53977 175 281351473824 192306 158 357 128 +21 +1 +5 +2 +14 4.4
201723 MLB RAWHouston Astros — 626556 15839519 55977 175 284356475831 191311 159 363 128 +21 +1 +5 +2 +14 4.4
201824 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 705596 16848132 948512 104 282390527917 245282 1213 401 157 +48 +0 -0 +3 +15 6.7
201824 MLB RAWHouston Astros — 705594 17051131 968512 104 286396532928 246289 1214 406 157 +48 +0 -0 +3 +15 6.7
201925 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 690556 16335242 117839 51 2934245901.014 297276 1217 434 180 +66 +1 +2 +2 +15 8.7
201925 MLB RAWHouston Astros — 690554 16437241 119839 51 2964285921.020 296281 1217 437 180 +66 +1 +2 +2 +15 8.7
202026 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 180154 361116 23262 00 234341435776 201244 1413 348 122 +5 +0 +1 +1 +4 1.1
202026 MLB RAWHouston Astros — 180153 371216 24262 00 242352451803 209254 1413 356 122 +5 +0 +1 +1 +4 1.1
202127 MLB MLE2 teams — 444390 10119013 45555 10 259343408751 149270 1210 336 113 +7 +0 +2 +2 +10 2.0
202127 MLB RAW2 teams — 444384 10320013 51555 10 268361422783 154281 1211 350 113 +7 +0 +2 +2 +10 2.0
202228 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 656549 14136024 867711 12 257368454822 197255 1213 360 130 +23 -1 +6 +2 +14 4.6
202228 MLB RAWHouston Astros — 656548 14238023 877711 12 259372454826 195260 1213 364 130 +23 -1 +6 +2 +14 4.6
202329 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 724623 16126426 91878 31 258360438798 180264 1213 357 128 +24 +0 +1 +3 +16 4.5
202329 MLB RAWHouston Astros — 724622 16328425 92878 31 262364441805 178270 1213 360 128 +24 +0 +1 +3 +16 4.5
202430 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 634582 15028227 43865 31 258314452766 194260 147 335 113 +10 +0 +8 +2 +14 3.5
202430 MLB RAWHouston Astros — 634581 15130226 44865 31 260317453770 193264 147 338 113 +10 +0 +8 +2 +14 3.5
202531 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 495436 11425018 48709 11 261347443790 181274 1410 353 125 +15 -0 +4 +2 +11 3.2
202531 MLB RAWBoston Red Sox — 495433 11828018 51709 11 273361462823 189288 1410 365 125 +15 -0 +4 +2 +11 3.2
202632 MLB MLEChicago Cubs — 702610 16132229 7410212 31 264355466820 202272 1511 361 130 +25 +0 +1 +3 +15 4.5
202632 MLB RAWChicago Cubs — 702608 16133228 7610212 31 265358464822 199275 1511 362 130 +25 +0 +1 +3 +15 4.5
201521 A+ MLE2 teams — 311285 731034 19434 136 256315354669 98279 146 293 84 — — — — — —
201622 AA MLE3 teams — 585525 13630523 49976 94 259328467794 208281 178 345 119 — — — — — —
201723 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 626561 15737520 53977 175 280351471822 191311 158 357 128 — — — — — —
201824 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 705593 16848132 948512 104 283390530920 246289 1213 401 157 — — — — — —
201925 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 690559 16335242 117839 51 2924245871.011 295281 1217 434 180 — — — — — —
202026 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 180153 361116 23262 00 235341438779 203254 1413 348 122 — — — — — —
202127 MLB MLE2 teams — 444391 10119013 45555 10 258343407750 148279 1210 336 113 — — — — — —
202228 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 656554 14136024 867711 12 255368449818 195260 1213 360 130 — — — — — —
202329 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 724619 16126426 91878 31 260360441801 181270 1213 357 128 — — — — — —
202430 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 634581 15028227 43865 31 258314453767 194264 147 335 113 — — — — — —
202531 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 495435 11425018 48709 11 262347444791 182288 1410 353 125 — — — — — —
202632 MLB MLEChicago Cubs — 702610 16132229 7410212 31 264355466820 202275 1511 361 130 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202430 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 634581 15028227 43865 31 258314453767 194264 147 335 113 — — — — — —
202531 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 495435 11425018 48709 11 262347444791 182288 1410 353 125 — — — — — —
202632 MLB MLEChicago Cubs — 702610 16132229 7410212 31 264355466820 202275 1511 361 130 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202733 MLB MLECHC 100% 622546 13929123 619010 41 256341444785 187267 1410 347 121 +16 +0 +3 +2 +13 3.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202733 MLB CTXCHC 100% 569499 12927221 56839 31 257342442784 185269 1510 347 121 +14 +0 +2 +2 +12 3.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202834 MLB MLECHC 100% 506445 11022118 49777 21 245329420749 174258 1510 333 111 +7 +0 -3 +2 +11 1.7
202935 MLB MLECHC 100% 439389 9017114 41716 10 233316393709 160248 169 317 101 +0 +0 -4 +2 +10 0.8
203036 MLB MLECHC 100% 362321 7213111 33615 10 221303366669 145238 179 301 90 -4 +0 -5 +1 +8 0.0
202834 MLB CTXCHC 100% 506445 10922117 49777 21 246330418748 172260 1510 333 111 +7 +0 -3 +2 +11 1.7
202935 MLB CTXCHC 100% 439389 9118114 41716 10 234317391708 158250 169 317 101 +0 +0 -4 +2 +10 0.8
203036 MLB CTXCHC 100% 362321 7213111 33615 10 221303364668 143240 179 300 90 -4 +0 -5 +1 +8 0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 73366353 168337923279 826102797 5017 265358464822 199275 1411 362 126 +274 +3 +20 +28 +159 49.4
/ 162G— A+C — 650563 15034225 73919 42 266360467827 201277 1411 362 126 +24 +0 +2 +2 +14 4.4
Career— MLE — 86287518 196141629328 9211200117 7328 261351455805 194270 1411 355 126 +288 +3 +23 +30 +171 52.6
/ 162G— MLE — 650566 14731225 69909 52 260349454803 194268 1411 355 126 +24 +0 +2 +2 +14 4.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AAASugar Land Skeeters · 44 PAwOBA .357 → .305 (−51)K% 4.5% → 5.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA4.55%÷1.002×1.200——5.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.91%÷0.975×0.690—×1.00311.29%
HBP% /PA2.27%—×0.940—×1.0032.14%
Singles /BIP14.71%÷1.023×0.930—×1.00313.41%
Doubles /BIP8.82%÷0.923×0.830—×1.0037.95%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.920—×1.0030.00%
Home runs /BIP2.94%÷0.935×0.700—×1.0032.21%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 105, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .357 → .305; ISO .167 → .145; BABIP .242 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 285 PAwOBA .411 → .349 (−62)K% 9.1% → 10.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA9.12%÷1.055×1.220——10.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.68%÷0.932×0.700—×1.04210.71%
HBP% /PA2.11%—×0.870—×1.0421.91%
Singles /BIP18.10%÷0.967×0.920×0.950×1.04217.05%
Doubles /BIP7.62%÷1.017×0.840×0.950×1.0426.23%
Triples /BIP0.95%÷0.977×0.940×0.950×1.0420.91%
Home runs /BIP6.67%÷1.196×0.800—×1.0424.65%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 93, 2B 103, 3B 95, K 111, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .411 → .349; ISO .263 → .204; BABIP .286 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 83 PAwOBA .425 → .337 (−88)K% 14.5% → 18.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.46%÷0.996×1.290——18.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.02%÷1.008×0.710—×1.0504.46%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.980—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP21.21%÷1.000×0.900×0.955×1.05019.15%
Doubles /BIP9.09%÷1.061×0.810×0.955×1.0506.96%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.810×0.955×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP9.09%÷1.040×0.780—×1.0507.16%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 100, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .425 → .337; ISO .308 → .232; BABIP .333 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Lancaster JetHawks · 178 PAwOBA .360 → .317 (−43)K% 9.6% → 13.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA9.55%÷0.924×1.340——13.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.74%÷1.031×0.710—×1.0274.77%
HBP% /PA0.56%—×0.790—×1.0270.46%
Singles /BIP25.17%÷0.985×0.910×1.001×1.02723.92%
Doubles /BIP5.59%÷1.005×0.820×1.001×1.0274.69%
Triples /BIP2.80%÷1.150×0.760×1.001×1.0271.90%
Home runs /BIP2.10%÷0.964×0.920—×1.0272.06%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 85, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .360 → .317; ISO .156 → .132; BABIP .336 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AQuad Cities River Bandits · 133 PAwOBA .315 → .260 (−56)K% 9.8% → 13.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA9.77%÷0.960×1.360——13.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.28%÷1.021×0.690—×1.0157.73%
HBP% /PA2.26%—×0.780—×1.0151.79%
Singles /BIP23.23%÷0.989×0.920×0.950×1.01520.85%
Doubles /BIP5.05%÷1.106×0.830×0.950×1.0153.65%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.910×0.950×1.0150.00%
Home runs /BIP1.01%÷1.032×0.800—×1.0150.79%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 98, 2B 121, 3B 80, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .315 → .260; ISO .071 → .055; BABIP .283 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).