Alex Bregman — OGILVIE

Alex Bregman3B Chicago Cubs

Age 32 R/R 5'10" / 190 lbs MLB BB +5%HR -4% Svc 9.407 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 3.3 · 2026

wRC+†vL 109116vR 117

AVG/OBP/SLG.259 / .341 / .439

PA556

HR20

K%13

BB%10

xwOBA.323

Barrel%7.1%

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

55→55

PWR

45→45

SPD

40→40

EYE

52↗60

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.1peak

2026

Contract

CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 9.407 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$35M	+3.3	$26M	-$9M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$35M	+2.6	$21M	-$14M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$35M	+1.9	$16M	-$19M
2029	Ext / FA-deal	$35M	+1.3	$11M	-$24M
2030	Ext / FA-deal	$35M	+0.6	$3M	-$32M
Totals		$175M		$78M	-$97M

Options · projected decision
2027	PLAYER OPT	$35.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$97M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	21	A+	2 teams	311	282	71	10	2	4	19	42	4	13	6	.252	.308	.344	.652	.092	.279	14	6	.284	75	-9	+0	+0	+1	+9	0.1
2016	22	AA	3 teams	585	529	136	31	5	23	48	99	6	9	4	.257	.326	.465	.791	.208	.277	17	8	.339	118	+12	+0	+2	+2	+17	3.3
2017	23	MLB	Houston Astros	626	556	161	40	5	19	55	97	7	17	5	.290	.361	.482	.843	.192	.318	15	9	.363	136	+25	+1	+5	+2	+18	5.3
2018	24	MLB	Houston Astros	705	594	172	54	1	30	96	85	12	10	4	.290	.399	.535	.934	.246	.295	12	14	.396	161	+49	+0	-0	+3	+20	7.3
2019	25	MLB	Houston Astros	690	554	164	38	2	40	119	83	9	5	1	.296	.428	.588	1.017	.292	.282	12	17	.432	188	+69	+1	+2	+2	+20	9.5
2020	26	MLB	Houston Astros	180	153	38	12	1	6	24	26	2	0	0	.248	.358	.458	.815	.209	.262	14	13	.350	126	+5	+0	+1	+1	+5	1.3
2021	27	MLB	2 teams	444	386	102	20	0	12	49	56	5	1	0	.264	.355	.409	.764	.145	.280	13	11	.332	112	+6	+0	+2	+2	+13	2.3
2022	28	MLB	Houston Astros	656	548	138	38	0	22	87	77	11	1	2	.252	.365	.442	.807	.190	.253	12	13	.352	127	+20	-1	+6	+2	+19	4.7
2023	29	MLB	Houston Astros	724	622	169	28	4	27	92	87	8	3	1	.272	.373	.460	.832	.188	.278	12	13	.363	136	+29	+0	+1	+3	+21	5.5
2024	30	MLB	Houston Astros	634	581	149	29	2	25	44	86	5	3	1	.256	.314	.442	.757	.186	.262	14	7	.328	109	+7	+0	+8	+2	+18	3.6
2025	31	MLB	Boston Red Sox	495	433	116	27	0	18	51	70	9	1	1	.268	.357	.455	.812	.187	.282	14	10	.350	126	+15	-0	+4	+2	+14	3.5
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	32	MLB	Chicago Cubs	118	104	27	3	1	2	13	17	0	1	0	.260	.342	.365	.707	.106	.291	14	11	.310	96	-1	+0	+1	+0	+3	0.5
ROS	32	MLB	CHC	438	387	102	19	2	14	44	60	4	3	1	.264	.345	.432	.776	.168	.276	14	10	.343	121	+10	+0	+3	+2	+12	2.8
TOT	32	MLB	CHC	556	491	129	22	3	16	57	77	4	4	1	.263	.344	.418	.762	.155	.282	14	10	.336	116	+10	+0	+4	+2	+16	3.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	33	MLB	CHC	526	464	119	22	2	16	52	58	5	1	0	.256	.338	.416	.754	.159	.263	11	10	.338	117	+10	+0	-0	+2	+15	2.7
2028	34	MLB	CHC	478	424	107	20	2	14	47	57	4	0	0	.252	.333	.408	.741	.156	.261	12	10	.331	111	+6	+0	-2	+2	+14	2.0
2029	35	MLB	CHC	422	374	93	17	2	12	41	54	4	0	0	.249	.329	.401	.730	.152	.259	13	10	.323	105	+2	+0	-3	+2	+12	1.3
2030	36	MLB	CHC	362	321	77	14	1	9	35	50	3	0	0	.240	.320	.374	.694	.134	.256	14	10	.313	98	-1	+0	-4	+1	+10	0.7
2031	37	MLB	CHC	297	264	61	11	1	7	28	44	3	0	0	.231	.312	.360	.672	.129	.252	15	9	.303	90	-3	+0	-5	+1	+8	0.1
2032	38	MLB	CHC	228	203	46	8	1	5	21	36	2	0	0	.227	.305	.350	.655	.123	.248	16	9	.292	81	-5	+0	-6	+1	+6	-0.4
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			8801	7675	2021	438	33	303	952	1167	103	67	26	.263	.352	.447	.800	.184	.274	13	11	.349	125	+248	+3	+14	+31	+249	55.7
/ 162G	—			650	567	148	32	2	22	70	86	8	5	2	.261	.350	.441	.791	.180	.272	13	11	.349	125	+18	+0	+1	+2	+18	4.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	21	A+	Lancaster JetHawks	178	160	51	8	4	3	12	17	1	8	4	.319	.370	.475	.845	.156	.336	10	7	.363	136	+7	+0	—	—	+5	1.3
2015	21	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	133	112	29	5	0	1	17	13	3	5	2	.259	.371	.330	.702	.071	.283	10	13	.326	108	+1	+0	—	—	+4	0.5
2016	22	MLB	Houston Astros	217	201	53	13	3	8	15	52	0	2	0	.264	.315	.478	.792	.214	.317	24	7	.345	122	+5	+0	+2	+2	+6	1.6
2016	22	AAA	Fresno Grizzlies	83	78	26	6	0	6	5	12	0	2	1	.333	.373	.641	1.015	.308	.333	14	6	.438	193	+9	+0	—	—	+2	1.1
2016	22	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	285	236	70	16	2	14	42	26	6	5	3	.297	.415	.559	.975	.263	.286	9	15	.425	183	+27	-0	—	—	+8	3.5
2017	23	MLB	Houston Astros	626	556	158	39	5	19	55	97	7	17	5	.284	.356	.475	.831	.191	.311	15	9	.363	136	+25	+1	+5	+2	+18	5.3
2018	24	MLB	Houston Astros	705	594	170	51	1	31	96	85	12	10	4	.286	.396	.532	.928	.246	.289	12	14	.406	169	+55	+0	-0	+3	+20	7.9
2019	25	MLB	Houston Astros	690	554	164	37	2	41	119	83	9	5	1	.296	.428	.592	1.020	.296	.281	12	17	.437	193	+72	+1	+2	+2	+20	9.9
2020	26	MLB	Houston Astros	180	153	37	12	1	6	24	26	2	0	0	.242	.352	.451	.803	.209	.254	14	13	.356	130	+6	+0	+1	+1	+5	1.4
2021	27	MLB	Houston Astros	400	348	94	17	0	12	44	53	4	1	0	.270	.359	.422	.781	.152	.286	13	11	.348	125	+11	+0	+2	+2	+11	2.6
2021	27	AAA	Sugar Land Skeeters	44	36	9	3	0	1	7	2	1	0	0	.250	.386	.417	.803	.167	.242	5	16	.365	138	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2022	28	MLB	Houston Astros	656	548	142	38	0	23	87	77	11	1	2	.259	.372	.454	.826	.195	.260	12	13	.364	137	+27	-1	+6	+2	+19	5.4
2023	29	MLB	Houston Astros	724	622	163	28	4	25	92	87	8	3	1	.262	.364	.441	.805	.178	.270	12	13	.360	133	+27	+0	+1	+3	+21	5.3
2024	30	MLB	Houston Astros	634	581	151	30	2	26	44	86	5	3	1	.260	.317	.453	.770	.193	.264	14	7	.338	117	+12	+0	+8	+2	+18	4.1
2025	31	MLB	Boston Red Sox	495	433	118	28	0	18	51	70	9	1	1	.273	.361	.462	.823	.189	.288	14	10	.365	138	+21	-0	+4	+2	+14	4.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			5327	4590	1250	293	18	209	627	716	67	43	15	.272	.368	.481	.849	.208	.281	13	12	.373	144	+263	+3	+30	+20	+151	47.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alex Bregman (OGILVIE)	32	55	45	40	60	.260/.342/.425	.165	.264	18	3	10%	10%	121	+3.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕David Bell 2005 · MLB	32	52→58	49→50	41→40	57	.258/.336/.408	.150	.272	16	2	13%	10%	113	+2.6	.258/.326/.388	.130	.279	12	3	12%	9%	103	+1.9	.254/.321/.373	.119	.276	10	2	12%	8%	92	+1.2
✕Tommy La Stella 2021 · MLB	32	54→55	51→55	46→50	57	.274/.343/.435	.161	.274	19	4	9%	9%	123	+3.3	.248/.315/.394	.146	.264	15	3	12%	8%	101	+1.8	.236/.299/.365	.129	.257	13	0	14%	8%	82	+0.2
●Ronnie Belliard 2007 · MLB	32	56→58	48→50	39→45	51	.275/.327/.421	.146	.299	14	3	14%	7%	112	+2.6	.277/.331/.429	.152	.308	15	5	15%	7%	116	+2.8	.282/.339/.439	.157	.316	16	5	16%	8%	120	+2.0
✕Oscar Salazar 2011 · MLB	33	55→56	51→55	42→45	51	.275/.326/.442	.166	.300	18	5	15%	7%	118	+3.0	.230/.280/.349	.119	.269	13	9	19%	7%	74	-0.1	.199/.245/.278	.079	.242	9	10	22%	6%	39	-0.5
✕Jose Amador 2012 · AAA	32	53→63	48→55	39→45	48	.266/.319/.400	.135	.289	16	4	15%	6%	105	+2.1	.257/.309/.415	.158	.293	21	5	20%	5%	105	+2.1	.252/.329/.391	.140	.275	18	3	15%	8%	104	+1.4
●Paul Lo Duca 2003 · MLB	31	57→66	50	39→40	54	.285/.338/.442	.158	.278	17	4	6%	6%	123	+3.3	.277/.332/.400	.123	.287	11	3	8%	7%	109	+2.4	.289/.338/.401	.112	.302	9	4	7%	6%	108	+2.1
●Todd Walker 2005 · MLB	32	57→61	48→55	41→45	55	.280/.341/.435	.155	.294	15	4	11%	8%	121	+3.2	.277/.341/.426	.149	.289	15	3	10%	9%	119	+3.1	.283/.348/.421	.138	.294	13	2	9%	9%	117	+2.4
✕Neil Walker 2018 · MLB	32	53→57	52→55	43→45	54	.270/.344/.439	.169	.302	20	4	18%	10%	124	+3.4	.248/.331/.393	.145	.295	16	4	20%	10%	108	+2.3	.238/.326/.368	.129	.288	14	2	21%	11%	90	+0.7
✕Aaron Hill 2015 · MLB	33	53→61	49→55	43→50	50	.266/.321/.422	.156	.291	16	7	15%	7%	110	+2.4	.237/.304/.360	.123	.266	13	8	16%	8%	87	+0.8	.225/.304/.336	.111	.250	13	7	15%	10%	78	+0.1
●Joe Randa 2002 · MLB	32	55→61	46→50	45→40	50	.271/.321/.405	.135	.288	13	5	12%	6%	106	+2.2	.275/.333/.416	.141	.297	13	3	12%	7%	114	+2.7	.279/.340/.431	.152	.303	14	0	13%	7%	117	+2.8
●Jay Payton 2006 · MLB	33	54→61	52→55	44→50	52	.272/.325/.436	.164	.279	20	4	12%	7%	116	+2.8	.268/.308/.398	.130	.283	13	7	10%	5%	98	+1.6	.266/.304/.381	.115	.284	10	9	10%	5%	89	+0.8
✕Aledmys Díaz 2023 · MLB	32	48→58	51→55	41→45	46	.244/.296/.400	.156	.270	19	3	18%	6%	95	+1.4	.226/.281/.346	.120	.264	12	4	19%	6%	74	-0.1	.223/.277/.321	.098	.270	7	2	19%	5%	62	-0.5
✕Shea Hillenbrand 2007 · MLB	32	57→62	51→55	45→40	46	.287/.331/.450	.163	.301	18	4	12%	4%	122	+3.3	.255/.291/.385	.130	.275	15	4	14%	4%	88	+0.9	.243/.262/.321	.078	.264	9	0	12%	2%	54	-0.8
✕Mike Lamb 2008 · MLB	32	55→61	51→60	42→40	54	.277/.340/.445	.168	.298	19	3	15%	9%	124	+3.4	.249/.299/.365	.116	.269	10	2	12%	6%	85	+0.7	.243/.282/.348	.105	.260	10	0	11%	4%	70	-0.2
✕Yangervis Solarte 2019 · MLB	32	48→58	51→55	41→45	50	.246/.302/.403	.158	.254	20	3	14%	7%	98	+1.6	.237/.289/.381	.144	.264	17	5	17%	7%	86	+0.8	.233/.268/.346	.112	.279	8	0	19%	4%	62	-0.2
✕J.J. Hardy 2015 · MLB	32	51→56	48→55	44→30	47	.255/.298/.394	.138	.277	16	2	15%	6%	93	+1.3	.246/.289/.366	.120	.285	12	2	18%	6%	82	+0.5	.235/.278/.347	.112	.274	11	0	18%	6%	69	-0.3
●Juan Uribe 2011 · MLB	32	49→59	54→60	41→50	49	.252/.307/.433	.180	.274	21	4	18%	7%	108	+2.3	.235/.295/.379	.144	.269	16	5	19%	7%	89	+0.9	.287/.336/.431	.144	.339	16	3	19%	6%	114	+1.9
✕Herbert Perry Jr. 2003 · MLB	33	54→61	53→55	44→45	49	.273/.332/.453	.179	.294	20	6	16%	7%	123	+3.3	.249/.315/.417	.168	.263	20	6	14%	8%	108	+2.3	.221/.307/.360	.140	.223	20	0	12%	9%	88	+0.2
●Jhonny Peralta 2013 · MLB	31	51→61	49→55	39→40	51	.256/.316/.406	.150	.287	16	2	17%	8%	104	+2.0	.272/.334/.431	.159	.317	17	3	19%	8%	118	+3.0	.277/.343/.439	.162	.321	18	2	19%	8%	118	+2.8
✕Chad Curtis 2001 · MLB	32	53	48→50	43→45	54	.259/.330/.408	.150	.302	14	7	19%	10%	111	+2.5	.254/.329/.397	.143	.295	15	14	18%	10%	107	+2.2	.252/.339/.357	.104	.286	14	32	16%	11%	99	+0.4

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)