Alex Bregman — OGILVIE

Alex Bregman3B Chicago Cubs

Age 32 R/R 5'10" / 190 lbs MLB Svc 9.407 · Ctrl thru 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION431 act + 270 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 121123vR 129

AVG/OBP/SLG.255 / .347 / .413

PA270

HR7

K%14

BB%11

BABIP279

ISO157

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 65 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT65

Whiff%

903.8%

xwOBA

640.325

POWER55

Barrel%

325.9

Avg EV

4989.1

Bat Spd

3970.2

EYE63

Chase%

9018.2%

SPEED46

Sprint

2026.0

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1252 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

355

897

—

wRC+

115

123

▶R

wOBA

336

347

▶R

ISO

155

196

▶▶R

BABIP

278

—

12.7%

14.5%

◀L

BB%

10.1%

7.5%

◀◀L

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 9.407 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$14M	+1.2	$9M	-$5M
2027	Ext	$35M	+2.6	$19M	-$12M
2028	Ext	$35M	+1.6	$11M	-$17M
2029	Ext	$35M	+0.8	$3M	-$23M
2030	Ext	$35M	—	—	—
Totals		$154M		$42M	-$80M

Options · projected decision
2027	PLAYER OPT	$35.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$80M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	21	A+	2 teams	—	311	283	71	10	2	4	18	46	4	13	6	251	305	343	648	92	283	15	6	282	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+	2 teams	—	311	272	80	13	4	4	29	30	4	13	6	294	370	415	786	121	314	10	9	347	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA	3 teams	—	585	527	134	30	5	21	50	98	6	9	4	254	326	450	776	195	276	17	9	336	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA	3 teams	—	585	515	149	35	5	28	62	90	6	9	4	289	372	540	912	250	304	15	11	397	162	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	MLB	Houston Astros	—	626	556	154	37	5	18	55	97	7	17	5	277	350	459	808	182	304	15	9	349	125	+18	+1	+5	+2	+18	4.5
2017	23	MLB	Houston Astros	—	626	556	158	39	5	19	55	97	7	17	5	284	356	475	831	191	311	15	9	363	136	+25	+1	+5	+2	+18	5.3
2018	24	MLB	Houston Astros	—	705	594	165	49	1	29	96	85	12	10	4	278	389	510	899	232	282	12	14	389	156	+45	+0	-0	+3	+20	6.9
2018	24	MLB	Houston Astros	—	705	594	170	51	1	31	96	85	12	10	4	286	396	532	928	246	289	12	14	406	169	+55	+0	-0	+3	+20	7.9
2019	25	MLB	Houston Astros	—	690	554	159	35	2	39	119	83	9	5	1	287	421	569	989	282	273	12	17	420	179	+62	+1	+2	+2	+20	8.8
2019	25	MLB	Houston Astros	—	690	554	164	37	2	41	119	83	9	5	1	296	428	592	1.020	296	281	12	17	437	193	+72	+1	+2	+2	+20	9.9
2020	26	MLB	Houston Astros	—	180	153	36	11	1	6	24	26	2	0	0	235	346	438	784	203	246	14	13	340	118	+4	+0	+1	+1	+5	1.1
2020	26	MLB	Houston Astros	—	180	153	37	12	1	6	24	26	2	0	0	242	352	451	803	209	254	14	13	356	130	+6	+0	+1	+1	+5	1.4
2021	27	MLB	2 teams	—	444	386	100	19	0	12	49	55	5	1	0	259	350	402	752	142	272	12	11	329	110	+5	+0	+2	+2	+13	2.1
2021	27	MLB	2 teams	—	444	384	103	20	0	13	51	55	5	1	0	268	361	422	783	154	281	12	11	350	126	+13	+0	+2	+2	+13	3.0
2022	28	MLB	Houston Astros	—	656	548	138	36	0	22	87	77	11	1	2	252	365	438	803	186	253	12	13	351	126	+20	-1	+6	+2	+19	4.7
2022	28	MLB	Houston Astros	—	656	548	142	38	0	23	87	77	11	1	2	259	372	454	826	195	260	12	13	364	137	+27	-1	+6	+2	+19	5.4
2023	29	MLB	Houston Astros	—	724	622	160	27	4	24	92	87	8	3	1	257	360	429	789	172	265	12	13	347	124	+20	+0	+1	+3	+21	4.5
2023	29	MLB	Houston Astros	—	724	622	163	28	4	25	92	87	8	3	1	262	364	441	805	178	270	12	13	360	133	+27	+0	+1	+3	+21	5.3
2024	30	MLB	Houston Astros	—	634	581	148	29	2	25	44	86	5	3	1	255	313	441	753	186	259	14	7	325	107	+5	+0	+8	+2	+18	3.4
2024	30	MLB	Houston Astros	—	634	581	151	30	2	26	44	86	5	3	1	260	317	453	770	193	264	14	7	338	117	+12	+0	+8	+2	+18	4.2
2025	31	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	495	433	113	25	0	18	51	70	9	1	1	261	351	443	794	182	274	14	10	345	122	+12	-0	+4	+2	+14	3.3
2025	31	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	495	433	118	28	0	18	51	70	9	1	1	273	361	462	823	189	288	14	10	365	138	+21	-0	+4	+2	+14	4.2
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	32	MLB	CHC	—	431	370	89	15	1	9	49	66	7	2	1	241	340	359	700	119	267	15	11	311	96	-2	+0	+1	+2	+12	1.3
YTD	32	MLB	CHC	—	431	370	89	15	1	9	49	66	7	2	1	241	340	359	700	119	267	15	11	318	101	+1	+0	+1	+2	+12	1.6
ROS	32	MLB	CHC	100%	270	235	60	14	1	7	29	39	4	1	1	255	347	413	760	157	278	14	11	342	120	+6	-0	+1	+1	+8	1.6
ROS	32	MLB	CHC	100%	270	235	60	14	1	7	29	39	4	1	1	255	347	413	760	157	280	14	11	332	112	+4	-0	+1	+1	+8	1.4
FULL	32	MLB	CHC	—	701	605	149	29	2	16	78	105	11	3	2	246	343	380	723	134	271	15	11	319	102	+2	-0	+2	+3	+20	2.7
TOT	32	MLB	CHC	—	701	605	149	29	2	16	78	105	11	3	2	246	343	380	723	134	271	15	11	323	105	+4	-0	+2	+3	+20	2.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	33	MLB	CHC	100%	581	505	127	29	2	15	62	88	9	2	1	251	344	406	750	154	275	15	11	335	114	+9	+0	-2	+2	+16	2.7
2028	34	MLB	CHC	100%	501	436	106	23	2	12	53	79	7	1	1	243	335	388	722	144	267	16	11	324	106	+3	-0	-3	+2	+14	1.7
2029	35	MLB	CHC	100%	432	378	88	19	1	10	45	71	6	1	0	233	324	368	692	135	258	16	10	311	96	-2	+0	-4	+2	+12	0.9
2030	36	MLB	CHC	100%	348	304	67	14	1	7	36	60	5	0	0	220	313	342	655	122	250	17	10	299	87	-5	+0	-5	+1	+10	0.1
2031	37	MLB	CHC	100%	283	248	52	10	1	5	29	51	4	0	0	210	302	319	621	109	240	18	10	285	76	-8	+0	-6	+1	+8	-0.4
2027	33	MLB	CHC	100%	581	505	127	29	2	15	62	88	9	2	1	251	344	406	750	154	276	15	11	325	107	+5	+0	-2	+2	+16	2.2
2028	34	MLB	CHC	100%	501	436	107	24	2	12	53	79	7	1	1	245	337	392	729	147	268	16	11	315	99	-1	-0	-3	+2	+14	1.3
2029	35	MLB	CHC	100%	432	378	88	19	1	10	45	71	6	1	0	233	324	368	692	135	259	16	10	302	90	-5	+0	-4	+2	+12	0.5
2030	36	MLB	CHC	100%	348	304	67	14	1	7	36	60	5	0	0	220	313	342	655	122	251	17	10	290	80	-8	+0	-5	+1	+10	-0.2
2031	37	MLB	CHC	100%	283	248	52	10	1	5	29	51	4	0	0	210	302	319	621	109	241	18	10	276	69	-10	+0	-6	+1	+8	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	7742	6696	1751	403	26	265	881	1104	102	48	18	261	356	448	804	187	276	14	11	353	128	+248	+2	+13	+29	+219	52.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	562	147	34	2	22	74	93	9	4	2	262	357	447	804	185	277	14	11	353	128	+21	+0	+1	+2	+18	4.4
Career	—			—	8465	7343	1878	417	30	274	939	1198	113	68	28	256	349	433	782	177	271	14	11	343	120	+194	+2	+13	+30	+240	49.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	564	144	32	2	21	72	92	9	5	2	255	349	431	780	176	270	14	11	343	120	+15	+0	+1	+2	+18	3.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	21	A+	Lancaster JetHawks	—	178	160	51	8	4	3	12	17	1	8	4	319	370	475	845	156	336	10	7	363	136	+7	+0	—	—	+5	1.3
2015	21	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	133	112	29	5	0	1	17	13	3	5	2	259	371	330	702	71	283	10	13	326	108	+1	+0	—	—	+4	0.5
2016	22	MLB	Houston Astros	—	217	201	53	13	3	8	15	52	0	2	0	264	315	478	792	214	317	24	7	345	122	+5	+0	+2	+2	+6	1.6
2016	22	AAA	Fresno Grizzlies	—	83	78	26	6	0	6	5	12	0	2	1	333	373	641	1.015	308	333	14	6	438	193	+9	+0	—	—	+2	1.1
2016	22	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	285	236	70	16	2	14	42	26	6	5	3	297	415	559	975	263	286	9	15	425	183	+27	-0	—	—	+8	3.5
2017	23	MLB	Houston Astros	—	626	556	158	39	5	19	55	97	7	17	5	284	356	475	831	191	311	15	9	363	136	+25	+1	+5	+2	+18	5.3
2018	24	MLB	Houston Astros	—	705	594	170	51	1	31	96	85	12	10	4	286	396	532	928	246	289	12	14	406	169	+55	+0	-0	+3	+20	7.9
2019	25	MLB	Houston Astros	—	690	554	164	37	2	41	119	83	9	5	1	296	428	592	1.020	296	281	12	17	437	193	+72	+1	+2	+2	+20	9.9
2020	26	MLB	Houston Astros	—	180	153	37	12	1	6	24	26	2	0	0	242	352	451	803	209	254	14	13	356	130	+6	+0	+1	+1	+5	1.4
2021	27	MLB	Houston Astros	—	400	348	94	17	0	12	44	53	4	1	0	270	359	422	781	152	286	13	11	348	125	+11	+0	+2	+2	+11	2.6
2021	27	AAA	Sugar Land Skeeters	—	44	36	9	3	0	1	7	2	1	0	0	250	386	417	803	167	242	5	16	365	138	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2022	28	MLB	Houston Astros	—	656	548	142	38	0	23	87	77	11	1	2	259	372	454	826	195	260	12	13	364	137	+27	-1	+6	+2	+19	5.4
2023	29	MLB	Houston Astros	—	724	622	163	28	4	25	92	87	8	3	1	262	364	441	805	178	270	12	13	360	133	+27	+0	+1	+3	+21	5.3
2024	30	MLB	Houston Astros	—	634	581	151	30	2	26	44	86	5	3	1	260	317	453	770	193	264	14	7	338	117	+12	+0	+8	+2	+18	4.2
2025	31	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	495	433	118	28	0	18	51	70	9	1	1	273	361	462	823	189	288	14	10	365	138	+21	-0	+4	+2	+14	4.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	5327	4590	1250	293	18	209	627	716	67	43	15	272	368	481	849	208	281	13	12	373	144	+263	+3	+31	+20	+151	47.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Evan Longorialast yr '23 career totals — 16 seasons, 8,206 PA	16	8,206	342	58	264	333	471	+29	+110	61.2	51.8
	/162	664	28	5	264	333	471	+2.4	+8.9	4.9	pk7: 42
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 17 projected seasons	17	8,604	291	54	261	351	444	+17	+64	51.1	44.0
	/162	664	22	4	261	351	444	+1.3	+4.9	3.9	pk7: 37
#2Ryan Zimmermanlast yr '21 career totals — 16 seasons, 7,402 PA	16	7,402	284	43	277	341	475	-25	+13	44.3	40.6
	/162	664	25	4	277	341	475	-2.2	+1.2	4.0	pk7: 37
#3Ben Zobristlast yr '19 career totals — 14 seasons, 6,836 PA	14	6,836	167	116	266	357	426	+2	+44	41.6	38.2
	/162	664	16	11	266	357	426	+0.2	+4.2	4.0	pk7: 35
#4Eric Chavezlast yr '14 career totals — 14 seasons, 5,747 PA	14	5,747	247	48	270	344	481	+0	+36	41.1	38.0
	/162	664	29	6	270	344	481	+0.0	+4.2	4.7	pk7: 35
#5Anthony Rendonlast yr '24 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,022 PA	12	5,022	158	55	280	364	464	+18	+21	38.4	37.2
	/162	664	21	7	280	364	464	+2.4	+2.8	5.1	pk7: 36
#6Melvin Moralast yr '11 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,119 PA	12	6,119	171	91	278	351	433	+0	+7	33.2	30.7
	/162	664	19	10	278	351	433	+0.0	+0.8	3.6	pk7: 28

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alex Bregman (OGILVIE)	32	51→65	48→55	46	63	246/343/380	134	271	16	3	15%	11%	105	+2.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕David Bell 2005 · MLB	32	52→58	49→50	41→40	57	261/339/411	150	276	16	2	13%	10%	115	+2.8	258/326/388	130	280	12	3	12%	9%	103	+1.9	254/321/373	119	276	10	2	12%	8%	92	+1.2
✕Chris Stynes 2004 · MLB	31	51→61	47→50	44→45	54	253/324/401	148	279	14	5	15%	9%	106	+2.2	237/304/368	131	267	12	6	16%	8%	89	+1.0	215/264/294	80	245	3	0	13%	5%	45	-0.6
✕César Hernández 2022 · MLB	32	50→60	48→50	45→55	51	249/318/391	143	290	16	4	20%	9%	102	+1.8	243/317/340	97	304	7	10	21%	9%	87	+0.8	245/320/312	67	313	1	12	20%	9%	79	+0.2
✕J.J. Hardy 2015 · MLB	32	50→55	47→55	44→30	47	251/294/380	129	274	15	2	15%	6%	88	+0.9	237/280/350	113	275	12	2	18%	6%	74	-0.1	226/270/332	106	263	11	0	18%	6%	63	-0.5
●Jay Payton 2005 · MLB	32	56→61	50→55	47→50	53	279/336/438	159	291	17	5	12%	7%	121	+3.2	272/315/414	142	284	15	5	10%	6%	105	+2.1	272/308/407	135	282	14	5	9%	5%	98	+1.3
★Mike Lowell 2006 · MLB	32	52→62	52→60	49→40	56	261/330/437	176	269	18	5	12%	9%	118	+3.0	284/344/459	175	297	18	4	11%	8%	130	+3.8	293/353/475	182	304	20	2	11%	8%	132	+3.9
✕Jordy Mercer 2019 · MLB	32	52→59	46→50	42→45	52	255/322/393	138	293	12	3	18%	8%	103	+1.9	251/308/393	142	301	14	4	21%	7%	98	+1.6	257/306/400	143	311	15	0	22%	6%	95	+0.5
●Joe Randa 2002 · MLB	32	55→61	46→50	44→40	50	269/320/404	134	286	13	5	12%	6%	105	+2.1	275/334/417	142	298	13	3	12%	7%	115	+2.7	279/340/431	152	303	14	0	13%	7%	117	+2.8
✕Mark Ellis 2008 · MLB	31	54→63	49→50	47→50	52	269/334/424	154	293	16	7	14%	8%	116	+2.8	255/321/391	136	278	14	12	13%	8%	102	+1.9	256/324/376	119	279	11	13	12%	8%	95	+1.1
✕David Murphy 2014 · MLB	32	51→60	49→55	42→50	55	254/319/408	155	270	16	8	14%	9%	106	+2.2	256/310/395	139	279	14	4	14%	7%	98	+1.6	267/317/396	130	290	13	1	13%	7%	98	+1.1
●DJ LeMahieu 2020 · MLB	32	57→63	48→55	43→55	51	284/336/429	145	308	16	6	14%	7%	118	+3.0	286/355/425	139	313	16	6	13%	9%	124	+3.4	275/360/390	115	303	12	5	13%	11%	115	+2.2
●Juan Uribe 2012 · MLB	33	48→58	52→60	45→50	48	246/304/411	165	272	20	4	18%	7%	101	+1.8	256/310/399	143	300	15	5	19%	7%	99	+1.7	285/333/438	154	333	17	3	19%	6%	114	+1.9
●Jed Lowrie 2016 · MLB	32	51→60	46→55	48→40	55	250/322/391	141	277	13	3	15%	9%	103	+1.9	264/337/405	141	306	13	2	17%	10%	112	+2.6	268/351/444	176	309	17	0	18%	11%	125	+3.5
✕Josh Reddick 2019 · MLB	32	53→61	49→60	48→50	55	264/328/414	150	286	17	9	15%	9%	111	+2.5	252/308/385	133	283	15	6	16%	8%	95	+1.4	250/302/372	121	284	13	4	16%	7%	86	+0.4
●Dustin Pedroia 2016 · MLB	32	56→65	44→55	43→55	56	273/339/392	119	295	11	7	12%	9%	110	+2.4	284/350/403	119	307	12	6	11%	9%	117	+2.9	293/361/404	111	315	11	6	10%	9%	118	+2.9
✕Chad Curtis 2001 · MLB	32	53	48→50	43→45	54	260/331/409	150	304	14	7	19%	10%	111	+2.5	253/328/397	144	294	15	14	18%	10%	107	+2.2	252/339/357	104	286	14	32	16%	11%	99	+0.4
✕Austin Barnes 2023 · MLB	33	45→55	51→50	47→50	56	231/324/388	157	265	20	7	21%	11%	104	+2.0	224/298/326	102	278	11	8	22%	9%	76	+0.1	219/291/275	55	281	5	8	22%	9%	58	-0.3
✕Austin Nola 2022 · MLB	32	54	48→45	44→45	52	266/338/416	150	303	15	4	18%	8%	116	+2.8	224/299/319	95	268	9	4	19%	8%	75	-0.0	198/276/272	74	244	7	2	21%	8%	50	-0.7
●Ronnie Belliard 2006 · MLB	31	56→58	48→50	43→45	52	277/333/429	152	302	14	4	14%	8%	117	+2.9	277/329/423	146	306	14	4	14%	7%	114	+2.7	278/335/422	143	308	14	3	14%	7%	112	+2.1
●Martín Prado 2016 · MLB	32	58→65	44→50	44→45	50	283/332/405	122	307	12	3	12%	6%	110	+2.4	285/336/397	112	320	9	3	13%	7%	109	+2.4	288/339/389	101	325	7	2	13%	7%	104	+1.2