Murf Gray

3B Greensboro Grasshoppers

Age 23 R/R 6'3" / 230 lbs A+ HR -15%K -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP50OGV rank#35ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	22	AA/A+/APIT	558	.305/.407/.567	32	5	114	—	.250/.330/.452
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBPIT	1	.266/.341/.463	0	0	129	0.0
2028PROJ42% MLB	24	MLBPIT	220	.266/.341/.464	9	3	129	1.3
2029PROJ62% MLB	25	MLBPIT	336	.265/.341/.463	14	4	129	2.0

Next 3 projected WAR 3.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$7M2032Arb-2$11M2033Arb-3$14M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

wOBA86

BB%86

wRC+85

ISO83

Whiff%72

Z-Con%66

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.9 / P90 27, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 69%

CompsGleyber Torres (age 23) · Mark Reynolds (age 24) · Logan O'Hoppe (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†129

AVG/OBP/SLG.266 / .341 / .463

PA1

HR0

K%24

BB%8

BABIP318

ISO203

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$61M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$10M	+$9M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.0	$14M	+$13M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.3	$15M	+$14M
2031	Arb-1	$7M	+2.3	$14M	+$9M
2032	Arb-2	$11M	+2.2	$12M	+$5M
2033	Arb-3	$14M	+1.9	$10M	+$2M
Totals		$35M		$73M	+$52M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	22	AA	Altoona Curve	—	195	155	40	8	0	9	29	43	8	2	0	258	401	484	885	226	292	22	15	389	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	197	172	52	8	0	15	22	41	1	3	0	302	385	610	995	308	314	21	11	425	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A	Bradenton Marauders	—	166	142	51	11	0	8	15	30	6	0	0	359	439	606	1.045	246	406	18	9	449	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	22	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	195	163	37	7	0	7	21	52	8	2	0	227	344	399	743	172	273	27	11	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	197	181	43	6	0	13	13	54	1	3	0	238	292	486	778	249	254	27	7	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	166	148	43	9	0	6	10	41	6	0	0	291	360	473	833	182	343	25	6	355	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	558	492	124	22	0	27	44	147	15	5	0	252	332	461	794	209	298	26	8	337	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	558	469	143	27	0	32	66	114	15	5	0	305	407	567	974	262	336	20	12	420	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	558	494	124	22	0	27	44	147	15	5	0	251	332	460	792	209	287	26	8	337	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	558	494	124	22	0	27	44	147	15	5	0	251	332	460	792	209	287	26	8	337	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	PIT	0%	648	577	154	28	2	29	53	158	13	9	2	268	343	475	817	207	318	24	8	359	129	+22	+1	-2	+2	+14	1.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	PIT	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	266	341	463	804	197	318	0	0	354	129	+0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	PIT	42%	517	459	123	22	2	23	43	124	10	7	1	269	344	476	819	207	317	24	8	360	129	+18	+1	-1	+2	+11	3.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	PIT	62%	542	482	129	23	2	24	45	130	10	7	1	268	343	474	817	206	316	24	8	359	129	+19	+1	-1	+2	+12	3.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	PIT	71%	560	498	132	24	2	24	47	133	10	7	1	267	342	470	812	204	314	24	8	357	128	+18	+1	-1	+2	+12	3.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	PIT	74%	569	506	133	24	2	24	48	136	10	7	1	264	340	464	804	200	313	24	8	354	125	+17	+1	-1	+2	+12	3.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	PIT	75%	568	505	133	24	2	24	48	136	10	5	1	261	337	457	793	195	310	24	8	349	123	+15	+1	-2	+2	+12	2.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	PIT	74%	558	497	129	23	2	23	47	136	9	3	1	259	334	450	784	191	309	24	8	345	120	+13	+0	-3	+2	+12	2.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	PIT	73%	547	488	126	23	2	22	45	135	9	1	1	255	330	441	771	186	306	25	8	341	117	+11	-0	-3	+2	+12	2.2
2035	31	MLB MLE	PIT	72%	531	474	119	22	1	20	44	133	8	1	0	251	325	431	756	180	303	25	8	334	112	+8	+0	-4	+2	+12	1.8
2036	32	MLB MLE	PIT	72%	510	456	112	20	1	19	41	130	8	1	0	245	318	417	735	172	298	25	8	326	107	+4	+0	-5	+2	+11	1.3
2037	33	MLB MLE	PIT	72%	475	427	101	17	1	17	38	124	7	1	0	238	310	401	711	163	293	26	8	316	100	+0	+0	-5	+2	+10	0.7
2038	34	MLB MLE	PIT	68%	418	377	86	14	1	14	32	112	6	0	0	229	300	381	681	152	285	27	8	304	92	-4	+0	-6	+1	+9	0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	PIT	42%	220	196	52	10	1	9	18	53	4	3	1	266	341	464	805	198	317	24	8	354	129	+8	+0	-0	+1	+5	1.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	PIT	62%	336	299	79	15	1	14	28	80	6	4	1	265	341	463	804	197	316	24	8	354	129	+12	+0	-1	+1	+7	2.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	PIT	71%	399	356	93	18	1	16	33	95	7	5	1	264	340	459	799	195	315	24	8	352	128	+13	+1	-1	+1	+9	2.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	PIT	74%	418	373	98	19	2	16	35	100	7	5	1	262	338	453	791	191	313	24	8	349	125	+13	+1	-1	+1	+9	2.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	PIT	75%	424	378	97	19	1	16	36	102	7	4	1	259	335	446	781	187	311	24	8	345	123	+11	+0	-1	+2	+9	2.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	PIT	74%	410	366	93	18	1	15	34	100	7	2	1	257	332	440	771	183	309	24	8	341	120	+10	+0	-2	+1	+9	1.9
2034	30	MLB CTX	PIT	73%	398	356	90	17	1	15	33	98	6	1	0	253	328	431	759	178	307	25	8	336	117	+8	+0	-2	+1	+9	1.6
2035	31	MLB CTX	PIT	72%	384	344	86	16	1	14	31	96	6	1	0	249	323	421	744	172	303	25	8	330	112	+6	+0	-3	+1	+8	1.3
2036	32	MLB CTX	PIT	72%	368	329	81	15	1	13	30	94	6	1	0	243	316	408	724	165	299	26	8	322	107	+3	+0	-3	+1	+8	0.9
2037	33	MLB CTX	PIT	72%	342	307	73	13	1	11	27	89	5	0	0	236	308	392	700	156	293	26	8	312	100	+0	+0	-4	+1	+7	0.5
2038	34	MLB CTX	PIT	68%	282	254	59	10	1	9	22	76	4	0	0	227	298	372	671	145	285	27	8	300	92	-3	+0	-4	+1	+6	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3981	3558	901	170	12	148	327	983	65	26	6	253	327	433	760	179	308	25	8	336	117	+80	+3	-22	+14	+86	16.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	147	28	2	24	53	160	11	4	1	253	327	432	759	179	307	25	8	336	117	+13	+0	-4	+2	+14	2.7
Career	—	MLE		—	6563	5848	1497	267	19	270	539	1627	116	48	8	256	331	447	778	191	308	25	8	342	117	+127	+5	-32	+21	+130	25.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	148	26	2	27	53	161	11	5	1	256	329	447	777	192	306	25	8	342	117	+14	+1	-3	+2	+14	2.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 197 PAwOBA .418 → .330 (−88)K% 20.8% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.81%	÷1.000	×1.310	—	—	27.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.17%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.998	6.69%
HBP% /PA	0.51%	—	×0.770	—	×0.998	0.39%
Singles /BIP	22.14%	÷1.000	×0.870	×0.969	×0.998	18.62%
Doubles /BIP	6.11%	÷1.000	×0.780	×0.969	×0.998	4.61%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	×0.969	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	11.45%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×0.998	10.06%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .418 → .330; ISO .308 → .262; BABIP .314 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAltoona Curve · 195 PAwOBA .386 → .330 (−56)K% 22.1% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.05%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	26.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.87%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.027	10.69%
HBP% /PA	4.10%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	3.58%
Singles /BIP	20.54%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.981	×1.027	20.07%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷1.000	×0.860	×0.981	×1.027	6.19%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.950	×0.981	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.04%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.027	6.44%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .386 → .330; ISO .226 → .189; BABIP .292 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ABradenton Marauders · 166 PAwOBA .441 → .355 (−86)K% 18.1% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.07%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	24.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.43%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.990	5.76%
HBP% /PA	3.61%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	2.79%
Singles /BIP	28.57%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.968	×0.990	25.19%
Doubles /BIP	9.82%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.968	×0.990	7.81%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.968	×0.990	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.14%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.990	5.66%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .441 → .355; ISO .246 → .194; BABIP .406 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dan Ugglalast yr '15 career totals — 10 seasons, 5,509 PA	8.3	5,509	235	26	241	336	447	+20	-17	28.7	28.7
/162	664	28	3	+2.4	-2.1	3.5	pk7: 29
#2Rico Petrocelli'63-'76 * career totals — 12 seasons, 6,170 PA	9.3	6,170	210	10	258*	339*	470*	+43	-2	29.8	28.0
/162	664	23	1	+4.6	-0.2	3.2	pk7: 26
#3Mike Lowell'98-'10 * career totals — 12 seasons, 6,498 PA	9.8	6,498	223	30	268*	329*	451*	+15	-22	28.3	26.4
/162	664	23	3	+1.6	-2.3	2.9	pk7: 24
#4Kelly Johnsonlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,139 PA	7.7	5,139	155	87	251	330	422	+8	-3	22.3	21.3
/162	664	20	11	+1.0	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 20
#5Davey Johnson'65-'78 * career totals — 12 seasons, 5,465 PA	8.2	5,465	136	33	267*	345*	449*	+10	-28	22.8	20.8
/162	664	17	4	+1.3	-3.5	2.8	pk7: 19
#6Neil Walkerlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 5,071 PA	7.6	5,071	149	31	268	339	429	+1	-35	20.5	19.8
/162	664	20	4	+0.2	-4.6	2.7	pk7: 19
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	6.0	3,984	160	26	257	327	445	+14	-22	20.5	18.4
/162	664	27	4	+2.4	-3.7	3.4	pk7: 16

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Murf Gray (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	266/340/470	205	318	9	3	24%	8%	129	+1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Gleyber Torres 2020 · MLB	23	50→55	60	45→50	48	269/328/483	214	305	30	7	23%	8%	126	+3.2	258/325/424	166	303	20	10	21%	9%	112	+2.2	259/345/399	140	294	17	6	17%	11%	114	+2.6
★Mark Reynolds 2008 · MLB	24	49→56	57→65	43→50	44	253/315/457	204	329	25	3	30%	8%	116	+2.5	243/326/474	231	326	30	11	33%	10%	124	+3.1	229/324/470	241	302	33	13	34%	11%	123	+3.1
✕Logan O'Hoppe 2023 · MLB	23	46→48	53→55	45	50	238/315/406	168	271	22	7	21%	8%	104	+1.6	238/301/417	179	290	25	5	26%	7%	101	+1.4	230/285/405	175	287	26	2	29%	6%	94	+0.6
●Eloy Jiménez 2020 · MLB	23	51→57	59→65	42→40	42	268/312/478	209	312	28	2	24%	6%	120	+2.8	267/316/471	204	318	28	2	25%	6%	120	+2.8	270/324/464	194	321	28	0	24%	7%	121	+1.4
●Carlos Correa 2018 · MLB	23	55→61	57→60	50→55	54	285/356/488	204	324	25	10	20%	10%	137	+4.0	259/335/455	196	305	25	5	23%	10%	122	+3.0	263/344/444	182	303	22	0	20%	10%	124	+3.1
✕Andy LaRoche 2007 · AAA	23	53→57	54→55	45	50	271/333/448	178	304	22	8	19%	8%	120	+2.8	249/326/399	150	278	17	7	17%	10%	106	+1.8	240/324/380	140	265	15	5	15%	10%	101	+1.1
●Miguel Sanó 2016 · MLB	23	48→52	60→70	48→45	50	245/334/471	226	333	28	7	33%	11%	126	+3.2	241/323/458	217	343	29	3	35%	11%	119	+2.7	239/326/486	247	331	35	0	36%	11%	127	+2.5
●Evan Longoria 2008 · AAA	22	50→57	55→65	47→50	47	261/325/448	187	306	24	5	23%	7%	118	+2.6	268/337/486	218	311	26	9	22%	8%	130	+3.5	266/348/500	234	289	28	8	19%	10%	138	+4.4
✕Michael McKenry 2008 · A	23	46→47	54→55	41→40	49	238/309/421	183	282	21	7	24%	9%	105	+1.7	223/292/377	154	278	17	4	25%	8%	88	+0.5	248/321/426	177	294	23	2	23%	9%	111	+0.8
●Stephen Drew 2006 · AA	23	51→57	56→55	43→45	50	263/328/463	201	308	23	7	22%	8%	122	+2.9	257/308/420	163	296	16	6	18%	7%	103	+1.6	268/323/446	179	301	15	6	16%	7%	116	+2.6
✕Francisco Alvarez 2023 · AAA	21	46→47	59→60	43→40	48	242/325/451	209	307	28	4	30%	9%	118	+2.7	235/309/436	201	288	27	4	28%	9%	109	+2.0	231/307/434	204	276	28	2	27%	9%	108	+1.3
●William Contreras 2023 · MLB	25	50→60	57→55	49→45	48	258/325/449	191	319	26	4	27%	9%	118	+2.6	277/353/449	172	335	19	7	21%	10%	127	+3.3	276/360/438	162	328	17	6	20%	11%	128	+3.6
●Andy Pages 2022 · A	21	42→52	59→60	45→50	47	225/317/433	209	295	27	6	32%	10%	112	+2.2	225/305/404	179	293	21	7	29%	8%	100	+1.3	269/326/453	184	315	23	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
●Miguel Montero 2006 · AA	23	51→58	56→55	44→40	43	269/317/459	190	300	25	4	20%	5%	117	+2.6	247/308/405	158	276	19	3	18%	7%	101	+1.4	267/343/423	156	316	17	0	20%	9%	119	+2.2
✕Jared Goedert 2008 · A	23	50→51	57→55	45→40	52	260/333/459	199	296	26	4	22%	10%	122	+3.0	229/289/362	133	271	15	3	21%	7%	84	+0.1	238/293/405	167	284	21	1	24%	7%	94	+0.7
✕Max Ramirez 2009 · MLB	24	52	53→50	44→40	50	259/340/431	172	333	20	3	27%	10%	119	+2.7	226/300/349	123	309	14	3	29%	8%	85	+0.2	236/306/365	129	274	14	2	19%	8%	89	+0.3
●Jhonny Peralta 2006 · MLB	24	54→63	55	37→40	51	274/344/473	198	326	22	2	23%	9%	130	+3.5	266/332/431	165	325	18	3	22%	9%	115	+2.4	275/337/435	160	317	18	2	19%	8%	119	+2.6
●Jedd Gyorko 2014 · MLB	25	49→53	56→60	42→45	44	257/305/444	187	298	24	5	23%	6%	109	+2.0	239/297/409	170	278	23	3	23%	7%	98	+1.2	258/331/469	211	285	30	4	21%	10%	126	+2.4
●Isaac Paredes 2024 · MLB	25	44→53	60	42→40	56	238/334/457	218	247	29	2	18%	10%	123	+3.0	246/345/435	189	262	24	2	17%	11%	122	+3.0	247/350/425	179	261	23	0	15%	11%	122	+2.9
●Gabriel Moreno 2022 · AA	22	54→60	53→50	47→45	46	272/326/449	177	307	20	7	19%	6%	118	+2.6	279/338/393	114	335	11	9	19%	8%	108	+1.9	280/361/429	149	314	16	5	15%	10%	126	+2.2

Murf Gray

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps