William Contreras

C Milwaukee Brewers
Age 29 R/R 5'10" / 217 lbs MLB HR +10%K +6% Svc 5.651 · Ctrl thru 2027
Overview
MLB40-MANArb-3FA 2028
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WAR
202426MLBMIL679.281/.367/.4662391346.8
202527MLBMIL659.260/.358/.3991761154.7
202628MLBMIL640.270/.345/.4171811113.5
2027PROJ29MLBMIL445.265/.345/.4241431192.9
2028PROJ30MLBMIL445.262/.341/.4151321152.5
2029PROJ31MLBMIL426.257/.336/.4041211112.1
Last 3 seasons WAR 15.0  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 7.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2027Service5.651First FA2028Options4
2027Arb-3$14M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Avg EV84
xwOBA79
Bat Spd69
Barrel%51
Speed20
Form.270/.350/.470 ▲▲ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .268/.345/.425
CompsOmar Narváez (age 29) · J.P. Crawford (age 29) · Gio Urshela (age 29)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 120119vR 114
AVG/OBP/SLG.265 / .345 / .424
PA445
HR14
K%17
BB%10
BABIP295
ISO162
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +9.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+10BATRUN: -0.7 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-1RUNFLD: +0.8 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+1FLDPOS: +7.9 runs (Positional adjustment)+8POSREP: +9.6 runs (Replacement-level credit)+10REPTotal WAR: +3.10+3.1WAR
0.02.04.03.12.52.11.627282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr━ post-control+$19M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 50
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT55
xAVG
600.260
POWER50
Barrel%
518.3
Avg EV
8491.4
Bat Spd
6973.3
EYE55
scouting grade only
SPEED40
Sprint
2026.0
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%19%▼▼20% over 98 PA (60d) · proj 17%
BB%11%·11% over 98 PA (60d) · proj 10%
ISO.201▲▲.282 over 85 AB (60d) · proj .157
HR/BB5.9%▲▲9.0% over 67 BBE (60d) · proj 4.1%
BABIP.300·.295 over 61 BIP (60d) · proj .300
SLASH.270/.350/.470▲▲proj .268/.345/.425
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1439 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
376
1063
—
wRC+
123
122
—
wOBA
350
348
—
ISO
136
169
▶▶R
BABIP
345
304
◀L
K%
20.5%
18.2%
▶R
BB%
12.5%
10.9%
◀L
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-3
MLB Debut   2021
Service   5.651 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2027
First FA Year   2028
OPT
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-3$14M+3.1$29M+$15M
Totals $14M $29M +$15M
Options · projected decision
2027CLUB OPT$13.8M / $0.0M buyoutEXERCISE
2028CLUB OPT$15.5M / $0.0M buyoutEXERCISE
2029CLUB OPT$13.8M / $0.0M buyoutEXERCISE
2030CLUB OPT$12.0M / $0.0M buyoutEXERCISE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201517 ROKDSL Braves — 189172 54940 15211 22 314372413785 99358 118 351 45 — — — — — —
201618 ROKGCL Braves — 8272 19501 7152 01 264346375721 111321 189 325 48 — — — — — —
201719 ROKDanville Braves — 198169 491014 24302 10 290385432817 142326 1512 362 69 — — — — — —
201820 A+Florida Fire Frogs — 9083 21700 6160 00 253303337641 84309 187 287 49 — — — — — —
201820 ARome Braves — 342307 9017111 29734 11 293362463824 169351 218 365 86 — — — — — —
201921 AAMississippi Braves — 209191 47903 15402 00 246308340648 94295 197 294 51 — — — — — —
201921 A+Florida Fire Frogs — 207190 501103 14443 00 263324368692 105329 217 314 50 — — — — — —
202123 MLBAtlanta Braves — 185163 35418 19542 00 215304399703 184265 2910 314 96 -1 +0 -4 +8 +4 0.7
202123 AAAGwinnett Stripers — 171155 45809 13363 00 290357516873 226327 218 384 92 — — — — — —
202123 INTLCardenales de Lara — 7465 14202 8141 00 215311338649 123245 1911 299 88 — — — — — —
202224 MLBAtlanta Braves — 376334 9314120 391041 20 278356506862 228344 2810 377 140 +18 +0 -2 +8 +8 3.2
202224 AAAGwinnett Stripers — 5148 14300 3100 00 292333354688 62368 206 312 66 — — — — — —
202325 MLBMilwaukee Brewers — 611540 15638117 631265 61 289368457826 169348 2110 366 135 +25 +1 +23 +11 +13 7.5
202426 MLBMilwaukee Brewers — 679595 16737223 781393 92 281367466832 185330 2011 369 134 +27 +1 +11 +12 +15 6.8
202527 MLBMilwaukee Brewers — 659566 14728017 841203 64 260358399758 140299 1813 341 115 +12 -0 +9 +12 +14 4.7
202628 MLBMilwaukee Brewers — 640566 15327118 61944 12 270345417762 147292 1510 338 111 +9 -1 +1 +11 +14 3.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 31502764 7511486103 34463718 249 272356441797 170317 2011 354 126 +96 +1 +39 +62 +68 27.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201517 ROK MLEDSL Braves — 189176 37620 11261 22 210261267528 57244 146 234 45 — — — — — —
201618 ROK MLEGCL Braves — 8275 16401 4222 01 213272307578 93268 275 239 48 — — — — — —
201719 ROK MLEDanville Braves — 198178 39713 15432 10 219287320607 101259 228 270 69 — — — — — —
201820 A+ MLEFlorida Fire Frogs — 9084 18600 5240 00 214258286544 71292 276 241 49 — — — — — —
201820 A MLERome Braves — 342317 7913110 191034 11 249300391691 142328 306 296 86 — — — — — —
201921 AA MLEMississippi Braves — 209195 41903 11502 00 210260303562 92260 245 243 51 — — — — — —
201921 A+ MLEFlorida Fire Frogs — 207195 40803 9603 00 205251292544 87285 294 242 50 — — — — — —
202123 MLB MLEAtlanta Braves — 185164 35418 18542 00 213299396695 183265 2910 310 96 -1 +0 -4 +8 +4 0.7
202123 AAA MLEGwinnett Stripers — 171159 38606 9443 00 239292390682 151298 265 304 92 — — — — — —
202224 MLB MLEAtlanta Braves — 376335 9314120 381041 20 278353504857 227344 2810 375 140 +18 +0 -2 +8 +8 3.2
202224 AAA MLEGwinnett Stripers — 5149 13300 2120 00 265294327621 61343 244 266 66 — — — — — —
202325 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 611542 15941116 611265 61 293370461831 168348 2110 368 135 +25 +1 +23 +11 +13 7.5
202426 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 679600 17040222 731393 92 283364467831 183330 2011 366 134 +27 +1 +11 +12 +15 6.8
202527 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 659570 14930016 801203 64 261355398754 137299 1812 338 115 +12 -0 +9 +12 +14 4.7
202628 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 640572 15529117 55944 12 271339414753 143292 159 333 111 +9 -1 +1 +11 +14 3.5
201517 ROK MLEDSL Braves — 189176 37620 11261 22 210261267528 57247 146 234 45 — — — — — —
201517 ROK RAWDSL Braves — 189172 54940 15211 22 314372413785 99358 118 351 45 — — — — — —
201618 ROK MLEGCL Braves — 8275 16401 4222 01 213272307578 93288 275 239 48 — — — — — —
201618 ROK RAWGCL Braves — 8272 19501 7152 01 264346375721 111321 189 325 48 — — — — — —
201719 ROK MLEDanville Braves — 198178 39713 15432 10 219287320607 101267 228 270 69 — — — — — —
201719 ROK RAWDanville Braves — 198169 491014 24302 10 290385432817 142326 1512 362 69 — — — — — —
201820 A MLE2 teams — 432401 9719110 241264 11 242291369660 127325 296 285 79 — — — — — —
201820 A RAW2 teams — 432390 11124111 35894 11 285350436786 151341 218 349 79 — — — — — —
201921 AA MLE2 teams — 416390 801705 201105 00 205253287540 82272 265 243 50 — — — — — —
201921 AA RAW2 teams — 416381 972006 29845 00 255316354670 100312 207 304 50 — — — — — —
202123 MLB MLE3 teams — 430390 8913117 331196 00 228298397696 169282 288 307 94 -3 +0 -4 +8 +9 1.1
202123 MLB RAW3 teams — 430383 9414119 401046 00 245326436762 191287 249 339 94 -3 +0 -4 +8 +9 1.1
202224 MLB MLE2 teams — 427384 10617120 401161 20 276346482828 206344 279 362 131 +16 +0 -2 +8 +9 3.1
202224 MLB RAW2 teams — 427382 10717120 421141 20 280353487840 207348 2710 369 131 +16 +0 -2 +8 +9 3.1
202325 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 611542 15941116 611265 61 293370461831 168356 2110 368 135 +25 +1 +23 +11 +13 7.5
202325 MLB RAWMilwaukee Brewers — 611540 15638117 631265 61 289368457826 169348 2110 366 135 +25 +1 +23 +11 +13 7.5
202426 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 679600 17040222 731393 92 283364467831 183335 2011 366 134 +27 +1 +11 +12 +15 6.8
202426 MLB RAWMilwaukee Brewers — 679595 16737223 781393 92 281367466832 185330 2011 369 134 +27 +1 +11 +12 +15 6.8
202527 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 659570 14930016 801203 64 261355398754 137302 1812 338 115 +12 -0 +9 +12 +14 4.7
202527 MLB RAWMilwaukee Brewers — 659566 14728017 841203 64 260358399758 140299 1813 341 115 +12 -0 +9 +12 +14 4.7
202628 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 640572 15529117 55944 12 271339414753 143294 159 333 111 +9 -1 +1 +11 +14 3.5
202628 MLB RAWMilwaukee Brewers — 640566 15327118 61944 12 270345417762 147292 1510 338 111 +9 -1 +1 +11 +14 3.5
201517 ROK MLEDSL Braves — 189175 37620 11261 22 211261269529 57244 146 234 45 — — — — — —
201618 ROK MLEGCL Braves — 8276 16401 4222 01 211272303574 92268 275 239 48 — — — — — —
201719 ROK MLEDanville Braves — 198179 39713 15432 10 218287318606 101259 228 270 69 — — — — — —
201820 A MLE2 teams — 432401 9719110 241264 11 242291369660 127320 296 285 79 — — — — — —
201921 AA MLE2 teams — 416388 801705 201105 00 206253289542 82272 265 243 50 — — — — — —
202123 MLB MLE3 teams — 430388 8913117 331196 00 229298399698 170281 288 307 94 — — — — — —
202224 MLB MLE2 teams — 427383 10617120 401161 20 277346483829 206344 279 362 131 — — — — — —
202325 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 611540 15941116 611265 61 294370463833 169348 2110 368 135 — — — — — —
202426 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 679598 17040222 731393 92 284364468832 184330 2011 366 134 — — — — — —
202527 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 659571 14930016 801203 64 261355398753 137299 1812 338 115 — — — — — —
202628 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 640576 15529117 55944 12 269339411751 142292 159 333 111 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202426 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 679598 17040222 731393 92 284364468832 184330 2011 366 134 — — — — — —
202527 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 659571 14930016 801203 64 261355398753 137299 1812 338 115 — — — — — —
202628 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 640576 15529117 55944 12 269339411751 142292 159 333 111 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202729 MLB MLEMIL 100% 606536 14429118 621033 41 268347425773 157300 1710 344 119 +13 +0 +1 +11 +13 3.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202729 MLB CTXMIL 100% 445394 10520114 45763 31 265345424769 158295 1710 342 119 +10 +0 +1 +8 +10 2.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202830 MLB MLEMIL 100% 445395 10521113 45772 21 265344417760 152298 1710 339 115 +8 +0 -1 +8 +10 2.5
202931 MLB MLEMIL 100% 426378 9920012 43762 10 260338405744 146295 1810 332 111 +5 +0 -2 +8 +9 2.1
203032 MLB MLEMIL 100% 407362 9118010 40742 10 253331391722 137290 1810 323 105 +2 +0 -3 +7 +9 1.6
203133 MLB MLEMIL 100% 387345 841609 38731 10 245322373695 128283 1910 312 98 -1 +0 -3 +7 +8 1.1
203234 MLB MLEMIL 100% 363324 761408 35711 10 235311352663 116275 2010 299 89 -5 +0 -4 +6 +8 0.6
203335 MLB MLEMIL 100% 284254 581006 27581 00 224299329628 105266 2010 285 79 -7 +0 -5 +5 +6 -0.1
202830 MLB CTXMIL 100% 445395 10319113 45772 21 262341415756 153293 1710 337 115 +8 +0 -1 +8 +10 2.5
202931 MLB CTXMIL 100% 426378 9618012 43762 10 257336404740 147290 1810 330 111 +5 +0 -2 +8 +9 2.1
203032 MLB CTXMIL 100% 407362 9117011 40742 10 251329389718 139285 1810 322 105 +2 +0 -3 +7 +9 1.6
203133 MLB CTXMIL 100% 387345 8415010 38731 10 243320371691 129279 1910 311 98 -1 +0 -3 +7 +8 1.1
203234 MLB CTXMIL 100% 363324 751308 35711 10 233309350659 117271 2010 298 89 -5 +0 -4 +6 +8 0.6
203335 MLB CTXMIL 100% 284254 56906 27581 00 222297328625 106262 2010 284 79 -7 +0 -5 +5 +6 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 54624822 12562397163 572106627 3010 260342414757 154301 2010 338 104 +99 +2 +20 +103 +118 34.9
/ 162G— A+C — 650574 14928119 681273 41 260341411752 152301 2010 338 104 +12 +0 +2 +12 +14 4.2
Career— MLE — 75206730 171634312198 689154648 3715 255329398726 143302 219 322 104 +109 +2 +21 +111 +128 37.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650582 14930117 601344 31 256330399729 143303 219 322 104 +12 +0 +2 +12 +14 4.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2022 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 51 PAwOBA .304 → .266 (−38)K% 19.6% → 23.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.61%÷1.002×1.200——23.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.88%÷0.998×0.690—×1.0334.20%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0330.00%
Singles /BIP28.95%÷1.018×0.930—×1.03327.33%
Doubles /BIP7.89%÷0.966×0.830—×1.0337.01%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970—×1.0330.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.981×0.700—×1.0330.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 104, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 100, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .304 → .266; ISO .062 → .054; BABIP .368 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 171 PAwOBA .373 → .304 (−69)K% 21.1% → 25.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.05%÷0.975×1.200——25.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.60%÷1.014×0.690—×1.0485.42%
HBP% /PA1.75%—×0.940—×1.0481.73%
Singles /BIP23.53%÷1.011×0.930×0.993×1.04822.53%
Doubles /BIP6.72%÷1.039×0.830×0.993×1.0485.59%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.920×0.993×1.0480.00%
Home runs /BIP7.56%÷1.001×0.700—×1.0485.55%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 102, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .373 → .304; ISO .226 → .164; BABIP .327 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAMississippi Braves · 209 PAwOBA .288 → .243 (−45)K% 19.1% → 23.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.14%÷0.975×1.220——23.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.18%÷0.967×0.680—×1.0425.26%
HBP% /PA0.96%—×0.840—×1.0420.84%
Singles /BIP23.18%÷1.068×0.920×0.950×1.04219.76%
Doubles /BIP5.96%÷0.906×0.910×0.950×1.0425.92%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.880×0.950×1.0420.00%
Home runs /BIP1.99%÷0.900×0.800—×1.0421.84%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 114, 2B 81, 3B 80, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .288 → .243; ISO .094 → .088; BABIP .295 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Florida Fire Frogs · 207 PAwOBA .302 → .242 (−59)K% 21.3% → 29.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.26%÷1.036×1.420——29.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.80%÷1.057×0.750—×1.0124.16%
HBP% /PA1.45%—×0.930—×1.0121.36%
Singles /BIP24.66%÷1.005×0.920×0.950×1.01221.70%
Doubles /BIP7.53%÷1.115×0.960×0.950×1.0126.23%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.033×0.810×0.950×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP2.05%÷0.920×0.880—×1.0121.99%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 101, 2B 123, 3B 107, K 107, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .302 → .242; ISO .105 → .087; BABIP .329 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ARome Braves · 342 PAwOBA .357 → .296 (−61)K% 21.3% → 30.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.35%÷0.952×1.340——30.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.48%÷0.995×0.660—×1.0155.71%
HBP% /PA1.17%—×0.770—×1.0150.91%
Singles /BIP26.07%÷0.983×0.920×1.020×1.01525.25%
Doubles /BIP7.26%÷1.031×0.820×1.020×1.0155.98%
Triples /BIP0.43%÷0.990×0.940×1.020×1.0150.42%
Home runs /BIP4.70%÷0.880×0.820—×1.0154.45%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 97, 2B 106, 3B 98, K 90, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .357 → .296; ISO .169 → .142; BABIP .351 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Florida Fire Frogs · 90 PAwOBA .283 → .241 (−42)K% 17.8% → 26.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.78%÷0.960×1.420——26.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.67%÷1.017×0.750—×1.0275.05%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.930—×1.0270.00%
Singles /BIP20.90%÷0.949×0.920×0.966×1.02720.09%
Doubles /BIP10.45%÷1.037×0.960×0.966×1.0279.60%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.026×0.810×0.966×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.974×0.880—×1.0270.00%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 90, 2B 107, 3B 105, K 92, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .283 → .241; ISO .084 → .071; BABIP .309 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ROKDanville Braves · 198 PAwOBA .359 → .270 (−89)K% 15.2% → 21.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.15%÷1.000×1.420——21.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.12%÷1.000×0.640—×0.9957.72%
HBP% /PA1.01%—×0.740—×0.9950.74%
Singles /BIP24.46%÷1.000×0.840×0.983×0.99520.10%
Doubles /BIP7.19%÷1.000×0.740×0.983×0.9955.21%
Triples /BIP0.72%÷1.000×0.740×0.983×0.9950.52%
Home runs /BIP2.88%÷1.000×0.800—×0.9952.29%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .359 → .270; ISO .142 → .108; BABIP .326 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ROKGCL Braves · 82 PAwOBA .316 → .239 (−77)K% 18.3% → 26.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.29%÷1.000×1.440——26.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.54%÷1.000×0.620—×1.0085.33%
HBP% /PA2.44%—×0.720—×1.0081.77%
Singles /BIP22.81%÷1.000×0.820×1.050×1.00819.78%
Doubles /BIP8.77%÷1.000×0.720×1.050×1.0086.68%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720×1.050×1.0080.00%
Home runs /BIP1.75%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0081.38%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .316 → .239; ISO .111 → .082; BABIP .321 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .