JJ Bleday — OGILVIE

JJ BledayCF Cincinnati Reds

Age 28 L/L 6'2" / 205 lbs MLB HR +6% Svc 3.169 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION388 act + 258 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 136127vR 123

AVG/OBP/SLG.230 / .323 / .456

PA258

HR12

K%22

BB%12

BABIP254

ISO226

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

708.9%

xwOBA

600.320

POWER50

Barrel%

538.6

Avg EV

4488.7

Bat Spd

5371.7

EYE55

Chase%

9022.1%

SPEED50

Sprint

5027.5

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 986 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

198

788

—

wRC+

115

104

◀L

wOBA

336

321

◀L

ISO

212

188

◀L

BABIP

303

259

◀L

25.3%

21.1%

▶▶R

BB%

6.6%

10.9%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.169 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.6M	+1.7	$13M	+$13M
2027	Arb-2	$9M	+2.7	$20M	+$12M
2028	Arb-3	$13M	+2.4	$16M	+$6M
Totals		$22M		$50M	+$31M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	21	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	151	143	30	8	0	4	8	41	0	0	0	210	252	350	601	140	265	27	5	263	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	151	140	36	8	0	3	11	29	0	0	0	257	311	379	690	121	306	19	7	310	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA	2 teams	—	583	519	85	21	2	13	57	172	3	7	3	164	250	287	538	123	213	30	10	241	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA	2 teams	—	583	492	114	30	5	17	84	124	3	7	3	232	347	417	764	185	273	21	14	341	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA	2 teams	—	605	523	90	23	2	20	73	195	7	5	2	172	282	338	620	166	226	32	12	276	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA	2 teams	—	605	506	103	23	2	25	90	166	7	5	2	204	332	405	737	202	246	27	15	332	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB	2 teams	—	436	372	81	17	1	17	57	94	2	6	2	218	325	406	731	188	241	22	13	323	105	+3	+0	-3	-5	+12	0.8
2023	25	MLB	2 teams	—	436	364	86	19	2	18	65	90	2	6	2	236	355	448	803	212	261	21	15	354	129	+14	+0	-3	-5	+12	2.0
2024	26	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	642	572	143	45	4	21	67	125	2	2	3	250	331	453	784	203	286	19	10	339	117	+13	-1	-2	+2	+18	3.1
2024	26	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	642	572	139	43	4	20	67	125	2	2	3	243	324	437	762	194	279	19	10	337	116	+12	-1	-2	+2	+18	3.0
2025	27	MLB	2 teams	—	476	429	98	22	1	18	45	122	0	4	3	228	302	410	712	182	275	26	9	310	95	-3	-0	-7	+2	+13	0.5
2025	27	MLB	2 teams	—	476	426	107	23	1	20	48	116	0	4	3	251	327	451	778	200	298	24	10	343	121	+11	-0	-7	+2	+13	1.9
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	28	MLB	CIN	—	388	332	83	17	2	21	51	84	3	5	3	250	355	503	858	253	271	22	13	368	140	+17	-0	+0	+1	+11	3.0
YTD	28	MLB	CIN	—	388	325	87	18	2	22	57	79	3	5	3	268	381	538	919	271	288	20	15	399	163	+28	-0	+0	+1	+11	4.1
ROS	28	MLB	CIN	100%	258	225	52	13	1	12	30	57	1	3	1	230	323	456	780	226	258	22	12	344	121	+6	+0	-3	+1	+7	1.2
ROS	28	MLB	CIN	100%	259	226	53	13	1	12	30	57	1	3	1	235	327	460	787	226	261	22	12	345	122	+6	+0	-3	+1	+7	1.2
FULL	28	MLB	CIN	—	647	558	136	30	3	33	81	141	4	8	4	244	344	486	829	242	266	22	13	359	133	+24	+0	-3	+2	+18	4.2
TOT	28	MLB	CIN	—	646	557	135	30	3	33	81	141	4	8	4	242	342	484	826	242	264	22	13	358	132	+24	+0	-3	+2	+18	4.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	CIN	100%	647	562	129	32	3	29	77	145	3	6	3	230	326	452	778	222	253	22	12	340	118	+14	+0	-9	+2	+18	2.6
2028	30	MLB	CIN	100%	634	551	124	31	2	28	75	143	3	6	3	225	321	441	762	216	252	23	12	338	116	+12	+0	-9	+2	+18	2.3
2029	31	MLB	CIN	100%	622	540	120	30	2	27	74	142	3	5	2	222	319	435	754	213	250	23	12	334	113	+9	+0	-10	+2	+18	2.0
2030	32	MLB	CIN	100%	609	529	116	29	2	26	72	142	3	4	2	219	316	429	745	210	246	23	12	328	109	+6	+0	-10	+2	+17	1.6
2031	33	MLB	CIN	100%	525	456	97	24	2	21	62	125	2	3	1	213	310	412	722	200	240	24	12	320	103	+2	+0	-10	+2	+15	0.9
2032	34	MLB	CIN	100%	444	387	78	19	1	17	52	109	2	2	1	202	299	388	687	186	233	25	12	310	95	-2	+0	-10	+2	+13	0.2
2027	29	MLB	CIN	100%	647	562	131	33	3	30	77	145	3	6	3	233	329	463	791	230	256	22	12	341	119	+14	+0	-9	+2	+18	2.7
2028	30	MLB	CIN	100%	634	551	127	32	2	29	75	143	3	6	3	230	326	454	780	223	255	23	12	338	117	+12	+0	-9	+2	+18	2.4
2029	31	MLB	CIN	100%	622	540	123	31	2	28	74	142	3	5	2	228	324	448	772	220	253	23	12	334	114	+10	+0	-10	+2	+18	2.1
2030	32	MLB	CIN	100%	609	529	117	29	2	26	72	142	3	4	2	221	318	431	749	210	249	23	12	328	109	+7	+0	-10	+2	+17	1.6
2031	33	MLB	CIN	100%	525	456	98	24	2	22	62	125	2	3	1	215	312	421	733	206	243	24	12	321	104	+2	+0	-10	+2	+15	0.9
2032	34	MLB	CIN	100%	444	387	80	19	1	18	52	109	2	2	1	207	304	401	704	194	235	25	12	311	96	-2	+0	-10	+2	+13	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5267	4590	1017	262	19	214	617	1218	23	41	20	222	317	427	744	205	252	23	12	326	108	+47	+0	-75	+15	+149	13.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	566	124	32	2	26	76	150	3	5	2	219	315	420	735	201	249	23	12	326	108	+6	+0	-9	+2	+18	1.7
Career	—			—	6632	5808	1243	314	23	253	749	1612	31	53	26	214	307	407	714	193	249	24	11	315	99	-6	+0	-75	+17	+188	12.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	569	122	31	2	25	73	158	3	5	3	214	307	408	714	193	249	24	11	315	99	-1	-0	-7	+2	+18	1.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	21	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	151	140	36	8	0	3	11	29	0	0	0	257	311	379	690	121	306	19	7	310	95	-1	+0	—	—	+4	0.4
2021	23	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	468	397	84	22	3	12	64	101	3	5	3	212	325	373	698	161	250	22	14	315	99	-0	-0	—	—	+13	1.3
2021	23	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	115	95	30	8	2	5	20	23	0	2	0	316	435	600	1.035	284	373	20	17	447	200	+13	+0	—	—	+3	1.7
2022	24	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	238	204	34	10	2	5	30	67	2	4	1	167	280	309	588	142	216	28	13	270	65	-9	+0	-2	+2	+7	-0.2
2022	24	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	367	302	69	13	0	20	60	99	5	1	1	228	365	470	835	242	268	27	16	372	143	+18	-0	—	—	+10	2.8
2023	25	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	303	256	50	11	0	10	42	72	2	5	1	195	313	355	669	160	226	24	14	303	90	-3	+1	-3	-5	+9	-0.2
2023	25	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	133	108	36	8	2	8	23	18	0	1	1	333	450	667	1.117	333	333	14	17	470	218	+18	-0	—	—	+4	2.2
2024	26	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	642	572	139	43	4	20	67	125	2	2	3	243	324	437	762	194	279	19	10	337	116	+12	-1	-2	+2	+18	3.0
2025	27	MLB	Athletics	—	344	307	65	17	0	14	36	91	0	1	2	212	294	404	698	192	251	26	10	311	96	-2	-1	-7	+2	+10	0.2
2025	27	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	132	119	42	6	1	6	12	25	0	3	1	353	412	571	984	218	404	19	9	427	185	+13	+0	—	—	+4	1.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1527	1339	288	81	6	49	175	355	6	12	7	215	309	394	703	179	254	23	11	314	99	-2	-0	-15	+1	+43	2.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Moustakaslast yr '23 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,577 PA	13	5,577	215	21	247	307	431	+14	+18	22.8	22.1
	/162	664	26	3	247	307	431	+1.6	+2.1	2.7	pk7: 21
#2Chris Younglast yr '18 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,316 PA	13	5,316	191	142	235	314	428	-0	+3	21.3	20.7
	/162	664	24	18	235	314	428	-0.0	+0.4	2.7	pk7: 20
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	12	5,813	232	46	221	313	424	+7	-47	22.3	20.4
	/162	664	27	5	221	313	424	+0.8	-5.4	2.5	pk7: 18
#3Colby Rasmuslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,070 PA	9	4,070	165	35	242	311	438	-0	+8	16.7	16.2
	/162	664	27	6	242	311	438	-0.0	+1.3	2.7	pk7: 16
#4Miguel Sanólast yr '24 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,954 PA	9	2,954	164	5	233	325	477	-7	-38	12.2	12.6
	/162	664	37	1	233	325	477	-1.5	-8.5	2.7	pk7: 13
#5Pedro Álvarezlast yr '18 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,287 PA	8	3,287	161	15	235	309	447	+1	-40	10.0	10.2
	/162	664	33	3	235	309	447	+0.2	-8.0	2.0	pk7: 10
#6Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	7	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
	/162	664	22	3	243	306	411	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
JJ Bleday (OGILVIE)	28	45	50	50	55	242/342/484	242	264	33	8	22%	13%	132	+4.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Pedro Álvarez 2015 · MLB	28	44→46	60	47→45	48	239/310/448	209	288	29	6	28%	9%	114	+2.7	240/307/454	214	285	30	4	27%	9%	114	+2.7	234/296/450	216	273	31	2	27%	8%	102	+1.6
✕Eric Munson 2005 · MLB	27	41→43	60	47→40	51	228/303/439	211	244	29	5	22%	9%	108	+2.3	231/295/417	186	257	25	3	21%	7%	99	+1.7	226/290/397	171	249	22	1	20%	7%	89	+0.5
✕Jason Vosler 2022 · MLB	28	44→43	55	49→40	49	233/303/420	187	265	23	5	23%	8%	103	+1.9	216/278/387	171	274	22	6	29%	7%	84	+0.6	206/267/372	166	264	22	4	30%	7%	72	-0.2
●LaMonte Wade Jr. 2022 · MLB	28	47→57	56→55	48→45	52	244/326/437	193	280	23	9	22%	10%	117	+2.9	250/348/425	175	290	21	5	20%	12%	123	+3.3	251/365/407	155	295	18	2	20%	14%	121	+2.2
✕Brad Miller 2018 · MLB	28	44→54	54→60	47→50	54	230/318/416	186	277	21	9	25%	11%	108	+2.3	237/318/434	197	305	24	6	29%	10%	113	+2.6	231/323/465	234	278	32	5	28%	11%	120	+1.5
✕George Kottaras 2011 · MLB	28	42→52	52→55	49→30	55	220/305/394	174	255	19	5	22%	11%	97	+1.5	239/336/427	188	291	22	4	24%	13%	118	+3.0	233/347/429	197	288	24	1	26%	15%	118	+1.0
●Chris Iannetta 2011 · MLB	28	42→52	57→60	45	58	226/337/428	202	253	24	3	22%	12%	120	+3.1	222/337/378	156	267	18	6	23%	14%	107	+2.2	237/357/386	149	305	16	2	25%	15%	113	+1.5
●Max Kepler 2022 · MLB	29	42→52	58→60	52→50	56	228/317/440	212	239	26	9	19%	11%	115	+2.7	239/318/407	168	269	19	6	19%	10%	105	+2.1	244/318/402	158	278	18	2	19%	9%	102	+1.4
✕DJ Stewart 2022 · MLB	28	41→47	55→60	42→50	56	218/324/402	184	266	23	4	27%	12%	108	+2.3	225/328/415	190	281	26	6	28%	11%	113	+2.6	211/325/400	189	260	26	6	29%	12%	106	+1.0
✕Didi Gregorius 2019 · MLB	29	51→54	56→60	46→50	50	267/319/457	189	271	24	8	13%	6%	119	+3.1	245/300/428	183	252	23	7	14%	6%	104	+2.0	231/285/404	173	238	22	5	15%	6%	87	+0.5
✕Paul DeJong 2022 · MLB	28	41→50	56→60	47→45	49	222/304/405	184	258	25	7	25%	9%	101	+1.8	210/274/390	180	262	25	6	30%	7%	84	+0.6	227/278/404	177	297	25	5	32%	5%	87	+0.6
✕John Rodriguez 2006 · MLB	28	48→47	57→55	52→40	45	249/317/444	195	301	25	9	26%	7%	115	+2.8	245/320/409	164	309	17	5	25%	8%	107	+2.2	239/321/389	150	307	15	1	25%	9%	99	+0.7
●Renato Núñez 2021 · MLB	27	46→51	56→60	44→30	46	243/308/431	189	288	25	3	26%	8%	108	+2.3	244/314/463	219	292	30	5	27%	7%	120	+3.1	232/307/469	237	267	35	1	28%	7%	116	+2.1
●Colby Rasmus 2015 · MLB	28	45→55	58→60	47→50	44	239/301/443	204	304	26	5	30%	8%	108	+2.3	228/299/426	198	297	26	5	31%	9%	103	+1.9	220/294/419	199	281	27	4	31%	9%	97	+0.9
✕Jake Fraley 2023 · MLB	28	47→50	54→60	51→55	56	242/340/415	172	300	23	15	26%	12%	117	+2.9	252/328/403	151	297	17	23	20%	9%	108	+2.3	253/326/393	140	296	15	27	19%	9%	102	+1.0
✕Devin Mesoraco 2016 · MLB	28	48→49	55→60	40	51	249/326/438	189	283	23	5	21%	9%	118	+3.0	221/307/375	154	258	18	5	21%	9%	93	+1.3	206/298/365	159	231	21	1	21%	9%	83	+0.2
✕Jake Lamb 2019 · MLB	28	45→55	56→60	44→45	56	237/333/437	200	286	23	6	25%	12%	120	+3.1	212/312/370	158	267	18	4	26%	11%	95	+1.4	223/310/383	161	291	20	1	29%	10%	94	+0.7
✕Hank Blalock 2010 · MLB	29	47→57	59→65	52→45	46	254/304/472	218	275	27	5	20%	6%	117	+2.9	248/302/412	164	289	20	8	21%	7%	100	+1.7	260/311/360	100	315	11	9	21%	6%	88	+0.3
✕Mike Jacobs 2009 · MLB	28	47→53	61→65	45→40	47	255/310/484	228	283	29	3	22%	7%	123	+3.3	228/287/406	178	276	23	3	26%	8%	92	+1.2	214/276/368	154	267	20	1	27%	8%	77	+0.1
●Matt Joyce 2014 · MLB	29	46→53	56→60	47→50	57	243/334/437	194	270	23	9	20%	11%	120	+3.1	232/335/390	158	281	17	4	22%	13%	108	+2.3	238/352/447	209	270	25	3	21%	15%	125	+2.2