JJ Bleday
CF Cincinnati Reds| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | MLBOakland Athle… | 642 | .243/.324/.437 | 20 | 2 | 116 | 2.6 | |
| 2025 | 27 | AAAOAK | 132 | .353/.412/.571 | 6 | 3 | 107 | — | .285/.328/.439 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLBOAK | 344 | .212/.294/.404 | 14 | 1 | 90 | -0.3 | |
| 2026 | 28 | AAACIN | 104 | .341/.462/.659 | 6 | 1 | 130 | — | .264/.356/.484 |
| 2026 | 28 | MLBCIN | 545 | .217/.325/.416 | 24 | 6 | 102 | 1.5 | |
| 2027PROJ | 29 | MLBCIN | 502 | .226/.321/.426 | 21 | 5 | 105 | 1.2 | |
| 2028PROJ | 30 | MLBCIN | 608 | .223/.317/.418 | 25 | 4 | 102 | 1.0 | |
| 2029PROJ | 31 | MLBCIN | 585 | .219/.312/.407 | 23 | 3 | 98 | 0.5 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 21 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 151 | 140 | 36 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 257 | 311 | 379 | 690 | 121 | 306 | 19 | 7 | 310 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 468 | 397 | 84 | 22 | 3 | 12 | 64 | 101 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 212 | 325 | 373 | 698 | 161 | 250 | 22 | 14 | 315 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 115 | 95 | 30 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 316 | 435 | 600 | 1.035 | 284 | 373 | 20 | 17 | 447 | 189 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Miami Marlins | — | 238 | 204 | 34 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 67 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 167 | 280 | 309 | 588 | 142 | 216 | 28 | 13 | 270 | 75 | -7 | +0 | -2 | +2 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 367 | 302 | 69 | 13 | 0 | 20 | 60 | 99 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 228 | 365 | 470 | 835 | 242 | 268 | 27 | 16 | 372 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | — | 303 | 256 | 50 | 11 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 72 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 195 | 313 | 355 | 669 | 160 | 226 | 24 | 14 | 303 | 95 | -2 | +1 | -3 | -5 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 133 | 108 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 23 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 333 | 450 | 667 | 1.117 | 333 | 333 | 14 | 17 | 470 | 141 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | — | 642 | 572 | 139 | 43 | 4 | 20 | 67 | 125 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 243 | 324 | 437 | 762 | 194 | 279 | 19 | 10 | 337 | 116 | +12 | -1 | -2 | +2 | +14 | 2.6 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Athletics | — | 344 | 307 | 65 | 17 | 0 | 14 | 36 | 91 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 212 | 294 | 404 | 698 | 192 | 251 | 26 | 10 | 311 | 90 | -4 | -1 | -7 | +2 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 132 | 119 | 42 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 25 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 353 | 412 | 571 | 984 | 218 | 404 | 19 | 9 | 427 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | — | 545 | 466 | 101 | 17 | 2 | 24 | 72 | 121 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 217 | 325 | 416 | 741 | 200 | 238 | 22 | 13 | 330 | 102 | +2 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +12 | 1.5 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 104 | 85 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 341 | 462 | 659 | 1.120 | 318 | 411 | 22 | 17 | 480 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 2072 | 1805 | 389 | 98 | 8 | 73 | 247 | 476 | 9 | 18 | 12 | 216 | 313 | 400 | 713 | 184 | 250 | 23 | 12 | 318 | 102 | +4 | -1 | -15 | +4 | +45 | 3.7 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 21 | A+ MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 151 | 143 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 245 | 315 | 560 | 112 | 270 | 27 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 468 | 416 | 71 | 18 | 2 | 9 | 45 | 127 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 171 | 256 | 288 | 545 | 118 | 215 | 27 | 10 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 238 | 204 | 35 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 67 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 172 | 284 | 319 | 603 | 147 | 216 | 28 | 13 | 279 | 75 | -7 | +0 | -2 | +2 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 367 | 318 | 54 | 11 | 0 | 13 | 44 | 123 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 170 | 281 | 327 | 608 | 157 | 227 | 34 | 12 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB MLE | Oakland Athletics | — | 303 | 256 | 51 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 42 | 72 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 199 | 317 | 371 | 688 | 172 | 226 | 24 | 14 | 309 | 95 | -2 | +1 | -3 | -5 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 133 | 116 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 276 | 359 | 517 | 876 | 241 | 282 | 16 | 11 | 377 | 141 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB MLE | Oakland Athletics | — | 642 | 574 | 140 | 42 | 4 | 22 | 65 | 125 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 244 | 323 | 446 | 769 | 202 | 279 | 19 | 10 | 340 | 116 | +12 | -1 | -2 | +2 | +14 | 2.6 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB MLE | Athletics | — | 344 | 309 | 63 | 15 | 0 | 14 | 34 | 91 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 204 | 283 | 388 | 671 | 184 | 251 | 26 | 10 | 301 | 90 | -4 | -1 | -7 | +2 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 132 | 123 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 285 | 328 | 439 | 767 | 154 | 339 | 22 | 6 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 545 | 468 | 99 | 17 | 2 | 22 | 71 | 121 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 212 | 319 | 397 | 717 | 186 | 238 | 22 | 13 | 320 | 102 | +2 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +12 | 1.5 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 104 | 91 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 264 | 356 | 484 | 839 | 220 | 334 | 27 | 12 | 361 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 151 | 143 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 245 | 315 | 560 | 112 | 263 | 27 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ RAW | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 151 | 140 | 36 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 257 | 311 | 379 | 690 | 121 | 306 | 19 | 7 | 310 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 583 | 519 | 89 | 22 | 3 | 12 | 57 | 158 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 171 | 257 | 295 | 552 | 123 | 218 | 27 | 10 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 583 | 492 | 114 | 30 | 5 | 17 | 84 | 124 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 232 | 347 | 417 | 764 | 185 | 273 | 21 | 14 | 341 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 605 | 522 | 90 | 22 | 2 | 19 | 74 | 190 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 172 | 284 | 331 | 615 | 159 | 225 | 31 | 12 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 605 | 506 | 103 | 23 | 2 | 25 | 90 | 166 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 204 | 332 | 405 | 737 | 202 | 246 | 27 | 15 | 332 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 436 | 372 | 83 | 17 | 2 | 17 | 57 | 93 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 223 | 329 | 417 | 746 | 194 | 247 | 21 | 13 | 330 | 109 | +5 | +0 | -3 | -5 | +9 | 0.7 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 436 | 364 | 86 | 19 | 2 | 18 | 65 | 90 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 236 | 355 | 448 | 803 | 212 | 261 | 21 | 15 | 354 | 109 | +5 | +0 | -3 | -5 | +9 | 0.7 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB MLE | Oakland Athletics | — | 642 | 574 | 140 | 42 | 4 | 22 | 65 | 125 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 244 | 323 | 446 | 769 | 202 | 276 | 19 | 10 | 340 | 116 | +12 | -1 | -2 | +2 | +14 | 2.6 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB RAW | Oakland Athletics | — | 642 | 572 | 139 | 43 | 4 | 20 | 67 | 125 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 243 | 324 | 437 | 762 | 194 | 279 | 19 | 10 | 337 | 116 | +12 | -1 | -2 | +2 | +14 | 2.6 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 476 | 432 | 98 | 20 | 1 | 18 | 42 | 120 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 227 | 295 | 403 | 698 | 176 | 270 | 25 | 9 | 308 | 95 | -3 | -0 | -7 | +2 | +10 | 0.1 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 476 | 426 | 107 | 23 | 1 | 20 | 48 | 116 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 251 | 327 | 451 | 778 | 200 | 298 | 24 | 10 | 343 | 95 | -3 | -0 | -7 | +2 | +10 | 0.1 |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 649 | 559 | 123 | 23 | 3 | 26 | 83 | 149 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 220 | 325 | 411 | 737 | 191 | 251 | 23 | 13 | 326 | 107 | +5 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | 2.2 |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 649 | 551 | 130 | 24 | 3 | 30 | 90 | 144 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 236 | 347 | 454 | 800 | 218 | 263 | 22 | 14 | 354 | 107 | +5 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | 2.2 |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 151 | 142 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 245 | 317 | 562 | 113 | 270 | 27 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 583 | 518 | 89 | 22 | 3 | 12 | 57 | 158 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 172 | 257 | 295 | 553 | 124 | 215 | 27 | 10 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 605 | 519 | 90 | 22 | 2 | 19 | 74 | 190 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 173 | 284 | 333 | 617 | 160 | 223 | 31 | 12 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 436 | 374 | 83 | 17 | 2 | 17 | 57 | 93 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 222 | 329 | 414 | 744 | 193 | 243 | 21 | 13 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB MLE | Oakland Athletics | — | 642 | 570 | 140 | 42 | 4 | 22 | 65 | 125 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 246 | 323 | 449 | 772 | 204 | 279 | 19 | 10 | 340 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 476 | 431 | 98 | 20 | 1 | 18 | 42 | 120 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 227 | 295 | 404 | 699 | 176 | 276 | 25 | 9 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 649 | 557 | 123 | 23 | 3 | 26 | 83 | 149 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 221 | 325 | 413 | 738 | 192 | 253 | 23 | 13 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | MLB MLE | Oakland Athletics | — | 642 | 570 | 140 | 42 | 4 | 22 | 65 | 125 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 246 | 323 | 449 | 772 | 204 | 279 | 19 | 10 | 340 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 476 | 431 | 98 | 20 | 1 | 18 | 42 | 120 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 227 | 295 | 404 | 699 | 176 | 276 | 25 | 9 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 649 | 557 | 123 | 23 | 3 | 26 | 83 | 149 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 221 | 325 | 413 | 738 | 192 | 253 | 23 | 13 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | CIN | 100% | 569 | 495 | 110 | 23 | 2 | 22 | 66 | 130 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 223 | 318 | 412 | 730 | 189 | 254 | 23 | 12 | 324 | 105 | +4 | +1 | -5 | +2 | +12 | 1.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | CIN | 100% | 502 | 437 | 99 | 20 | 2 | 21 | 58 | 114 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 226 | 321 | 426 | 746 | 199 | 255 | 23 | 12 | 330 | 105 | +3 | +1 | -5 | +2 | +11 | 1.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | CIN | 100% | 608 | 530 | 116 | 24 | 2 | 23 | 70 | 141 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 220 | 314 | 404 | 719 | 185 | 252 | 23 | 12 | 320 | 102 | +2 | +0 | -8 | +2 | +13 | 1.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB MLE | CIN | 100% | 585 | 511 | 110 | 23 | 2 | 21 | 67 | 137 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 215 | 309 | 394 | 703 | 179 | 249 | 23 | 11 | 314 | 98 | -1 | +0 | -8 | +2 | +13 | 0.5 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB MLE | CIN | 100% | 565 | 494 | 104 | 21 | 2 | 20 | 64 | 135 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 210 | 303 | 381 | 683 | 171 | 244 | 24 | 11 | 306 | 93 | -5 | +1 | -9 | +2 | +12 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB MLE | CIN | 100% | 412 | 362 | 74 | 15 | 1 | 14 | 46 | 101 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 202 | 295 | 364 | 658 | 161 | 238 | 25 | 11 | 296 | 86 | -7 | +0 | -8 | +1 | +9 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | CIN | 100% | 608 | 530 | 118 | 24 | 2 | 25 | 70 | 141 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 223 | 317 | 418 | 735 | 194 | 253 | 23 | 12 | 326 | 102 | +2 | +0 | -8 | +2 | +13 | 1.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB CTX | CIN | 100% | 585 | 511 | 111 | 22 | 2 | 23 | 67 | 137 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 219 | 312 | 407 | 719 | 188 | 250 | 23 | 11 | 319 | 98 | -1 | +0 | -8 | +2 | +13 | 0.5 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB CTX | CIN | 100% | 565 | 494 | 105 | 21 | 2 | 21 | 64 | 135 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 213 | 305 | 393 | 698 | 180 | 245 | 24 | 11 | 311 | 93 | -5 | +1 | -9 | +2 | +12 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB CTX | CIN | 100% | 412 | 362 | 74 | 14 | 1 | 15 | 46 | 101 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 297 | 375 | 672 | 170 | 239 | 25 | 11 | 301 | 86 | -7 | +0 | -8 | +1 | +9 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 4242 | 3702 | 797 | 179 | 15 | 157 | 494 | 990 | 17 | 29 | 14 | 215 | 310 | 399 | 709 | 184 | 249 | 23 | 12 | 317 | 94 | -7 | +0 | -48 | +12 | +92 | 4.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 567 | 121 | 27 | 2 | 24 | 76 | 152 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 213 | 310 | 395 | 705 | 182 | 246 | 23 | 12 | 317 | 94 | -1 | +0 | -7 | +2 | +14 | 0.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 6214 | 5455 | 1153 | 256 | 24 | 214 | 691 | 1504 | 28 | 47 | 21 | 211 | 303 | 385 | 688 | 173 | 249 | 24 | 11 | 306 | 94 | -4 | +1 | -53 | +13 | +103 | 6.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 571 | 121 | 27 | 3 | 22 | 72 | 157 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 212 | 303 | 385 | 689 | 173 | 251 | 24 | 11 | 306 | 94 | -1 | +0 | -7 | +2 | +14 | 0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAALouisville Bats · 104 PAwOBA .468 → .361 (−107)K% 22.1% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.12% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.31% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 11.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.96% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.19% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 20.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 8.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 1.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 6.65% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .468 → .361; ISO .318 → .235; BABIP .411 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 132 PAwOBA .419 → .326 (−93)K% 18.9% → 22.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.94% | ÷1.027 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷0.970 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 6.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.85% | ÷1.052 | ×0.930 | ×0.987 | ×0.992 | 26.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.38% | ÷0.988 | ×0.830 | ×0.987 | ×0.992 | 5.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.987 | ×0.992 | 1.01% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.38% | ÷1.183 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 3.75% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .419 → .326; ISO .218 → .147; BABIP .404 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 133 PAwOBA .464 → .377 (−88)K% 13.5% → 16.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.53% | ÷1.017 | ×1.200 | — | — | 15.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.29% | ÷1.055 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 11.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.993 | ×0.930 | ×0.976 | ×1.018 | 18.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.89% | ÷1.124 | ×0.830 | ×0.976 | ×1.018 | 6.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.22% | ÷1.133 | ×0.970 | ×0.976 | ×1.018 | 1.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.89% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 6.36% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 125, 3B 127, K 103, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .464 → .377; ISO .333 → .262; BABIP .333 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 367 PAwOBA .362 → .276 (−86)K% 27.0% → 33.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.98% | ÷0.966 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.35% | ÷0.978 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 11.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.36% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.73% | ÷1.054 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 15.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.40% | ÷0.898 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 5.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.930 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.85% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 6.91% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 111, 2B 80, 3B 86, K 93, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .362 → .276; ISO .242 → .172; BABIP .268 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 468 PAwOBA .310 → .246 (−64)K% 21.6% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.58% | ÷0.973 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.68% | ÷0.985 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.012 | 9.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.64% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.88% | ÷1.011 | ×0.940 | ×0.953 | ×1.012 | 14.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.43% | ÷1.026 | ×0.870 | ×0.953 | ×1.012 | 6.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.01% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.953 | ×1.012 | 0.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.05% | ÷1.011 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 3.17% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 102, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.
Result: wOBA .310 → .246; ISO .161 → .127; BABIP .250 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 151 PAwOBA .302 → .252 (−50)K% 19.2% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.21% | ÷1.007 | ×1.420 | — | — | 27.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.28% | ÷0.998 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 5.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.52% | ÷1.045 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 19.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.21% | ÷0.931 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 7.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.120 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.70% | ÷0.803 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 3.00% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 61, 1B 109, 2B 86, 3B 124, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .302 → .252; ISO .121 → .117; BABIP .306 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .