Austin Wells
C New York Yankees| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | MLBNYY | 414 | .229/.328/.395 | 13 | 1 | 101 | 3.6 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLBNYY | 448 | .219/.281/.436 | 21 | 5 | 91 | 3.2 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLBNYY | 388 | .186/.294/.332 | 14 | 4 | 74 | 0.7 |
| 2027PROJ | 28 | MLBNYY | 319 | .213/.301/.388 | 12 | 3 | 91 | 1.5 |
| 2028PROJ98% MLB | 29 | MLBNYY | 304 | .211/.299/.381 | 12 | 2 | 89 | 1.2 |
| 2029PROJ98% MLB | 30 | MLBNYY | 296 | .207/.295/.373 | 11 | 1 | 85 | 1.0 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 170 | 146 | 40 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 55 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 274 | 376 | 473 | 849 | 199 | 393 | 32 | 12 | 378 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Tampa Tarpons | — | 299 | 236 | 61 | 17 | 4 | 9 | 51 | 62 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 258 | 405 | 479 | 884 | 220 | 306 | 21 | 17 | 387 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 79 | 64 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 344 | 462 | 578 | 1.040 | 234 | 426 | 20 | 16 | 448 | 189 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 247 | 211 | 55 | 8 | 1 | 12 | 29 | 58 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 261 | 363 | 479 | 842 | 218 | 301 | 23 | 12 | 371 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 121 | 99 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 27 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 323 | 425 | 576 | 1.001 | 253 | 388 | 22 | 16 | 429 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Tampa Tarpons | — | 34 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 412 | 538 | 950 | 308 | 211 | 15 | 24 | 415 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | New York Yankees | — | 75 | 70 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 257 | 486 | 742 | 257 | 226 | 19 | 4 | 314 | 95 | -0 | +0 | +1 | +9 | +2 | 1.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 146 | 126 | 32 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 34 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 254 | 352 | 452 | 804 | 198 | 307 | 23 | 11 | 356 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 263 | 228 | 54 | 14 | 0 | 11 | 29 | 60 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 237 | 331 | 443 | 774 | 206 | 269 | 23 | 11 | 340 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A | Tampa Tarpons | — | 20 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 300 | 353 | 653 | 176 | 154 | 15 | 15 | 299 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | New York Yankees | — | 414 | 354 | 81 | 18 | 1 | 13 | 47 | 87 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 229 | 328 | 395 | 723 | 167 | 261 | 21 | 11 | 320 | 101 | +0 | -1 | +19 | +7 | +9 | 3.6 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | New York Yankees | — | 448 | 401 | 88 | 22 | 1 | 21 | 30 | 118 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 219 | 281 | 436 | 718 | 217 | 245 | 26 | 7 | 308 | 91 | -5 | +1 | +18 | +8 | +10 | 3.2 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | — | 388 | 334 | 62 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 48 | 103 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 186 | 294 | 332 | 626 | 147 | 219 | 27 | 12 | 286 | 74 | -12 | +1 | +3 | +7 | +8 | 0.7 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 1325 | 1159 | 247 | 53 | 2 | 52 | 128 | 322 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 213 | 298 | 397 | 695 | 184 | 242 | 24 | 10 | 306 | 93 | -11 | +1 | +41 | +31 | +29 | 9.2 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 170 | 152 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 74 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 197 | 282 | 336 | 618 | 138 | 345 | 44 | 8 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 299 | 253 | 51 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 34 | 84 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 202 | 313 | 364 | 677 | 162 | 257 | 28 | 11 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 247 | 219 | 49 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 71 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 224 | 306 | 388 | 694 | 164 | 279 | 29 | 9 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 121 | 108 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 35 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 241 | 317 | 435 | 752 | 194 | 299 | 29 | 10 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 34 | 29 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 324 | 483 | 806 | 276 | 172 | 21 | 15 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB MLE | New York Yankees | — | 75 | 71 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 257 | 479 | 736 | 254 | 226 | 19 | 4 | 308 | 95 | -0 | +0 | +1 | +9 | +2 | 1.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 146 | 131 | 28 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 41 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 214 | 290 | 374 | 664 | 160 | 274 | 28 | 8 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 263 | 237 | 47 | 12 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 73 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 198 | 269 | 350 | 619 | 152 | 243 | 28 | 8 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 20 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 250 | 333 | 583 | 167 | 138 | 20 | 10 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | New York Yankees | — | 414 | 354 | 80 | 18 | 1 | 12 | 47 | 87 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 226 | 325 | 384 | 709 | 158 | 261 | 21 | 11 | 317 | 101 | +0 | -1 | +19 | +7 | +9 | 3.6 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | New York Yankees | — | 448 | 402 | 87 | 22 | 1 | 20 | 30 | 118 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 216 | 279 | 425 | 705 | 209 | 245 | 26 | 7 | 303 | 91 | -5 | +1 | +18 | +8 | +10 | 3.2 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | New York Yankees | — | 388 | 336 | 61 | 7 | 0 | 13 | 46 | 103 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 182 | 286 | 318 | 604 | 137 | 219 | 27 | 12 | 278 | 74 | -12 | +1 | +3 | +7 | +8 | 0.7 |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 548 | 473 | 96 | 21 | 5 | 14 | 57 | 185 | 12 | 17 | 0 | 203 | 304 | 357 | 662 | 154 | 293 | 34 | 10 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 548 | 446 | 123 | 28 | 7 | 18 | 84 | 133 | 12 | 17 | 0 | 276 | 404 | 491 | 895 | 215 | 349 | 24 | 15 | 393 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 402 | 356 | 81 | 15 | 1 | 16 | 38 | 113 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 228 | 311 | 410 | 721 | 183 | 283 | 28 | 9 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 402 | 336 | 93 | 17 | 1 | 20 | 56 | 90 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 277 | 386 | 512 | 898 | 235 | 319 | 22 | 14 | 392 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 504 | 457 | 93 | 27 | 0 | 16 | 36 | 132 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 204 | 271 | 368 | 638 | 164 | 245 | 26 | 7 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA RAW | 4 teams | — | 504 | 441 | 105 | 30 | 0 | 21 | 51 | 111 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 238 | 325 | 449 | 774 | 211 | 268 | 22 | 10 | 339 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | New York Yankees | — | 414 | 354 | 80 | 18 | 1 | 12 | 47 | 87 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 226 | 325 | 384 | 709 | 158 | 260 | 21 | 11 | 317 | 101 | +0 | -1 | +19 | +7 | +9 | 3.6 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB RAW | New York Yankees | — | 414 | 354 | 81 | 18 | 1 | 13 | 47 | 87 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 229 | 328 | 395 | 723 | 167 | 261 | 21 | 11 | 320 | 101 | +0 | -1 | +19 | +7 | +9 | 3.6 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | New York Yankees | — | 448 | 402 | 87 | 22 | 1 | 20 | 30 | 118 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 216 | 279 | 425 | 705 | 209 | 244 | 26 | 7 | 303 | 91 | -5 | +1 | +18 | +8 | +10 | 3.2 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB RAW | New York Yankees | — | 448 | 401 | 88 | 22 | 1 | 21 | 30 | 118 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 219 | 281 | 436 | 718 | 217 | 245 | 26 | 7 | 308 | 91 | -5 | +1 | +18 | +8 | +10 | 3.2 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | New York Yankees | — | 388 | 336 | 61 | 7 | 0 | 13 | 46 | 103 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 182 | 286 | 318 | 604 | 137 | 216 | 27 | 12 | 278 | 74 | -12 | +1 | +3 | +7 | +8 | 0.7 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB RAW | New York Yankees | — | 388 | 334 | 62 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 48 | 103 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 186 | 294 | 332 | 626 | 147 | 219 | 27 | 12 | 286 | 74 | -12 | +1 | +3 | +7 | +8 | 0.7 |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 548 | 474 | 96 | 21 | 5 | 14 | 57 | 185 | 12 | 17 | 0 | 203 | 304 | 357 | 661 | 154 | 289 | 34 | 10 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 402 | 356 | 81 | 15 | 1 | 16 | 38 | 113 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 228 | 311 | 410 | 721 | 183 | 276 | 28 | 9 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 504 | 457 | 93 | 27 | 0 | 16 | 36 | 132 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 204 | 271 | 368 | 638 | 164 | 245 | 26 | 7 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | New York Yankees | — | 414 | 359 | 80 | 18 | 1 | 12 | 47 | 87 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 223 | 325 | 379 | 704 | 156 | 261 | 21 | 11 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | New York Yankees | — | 448 | 410 | 87 | 22 | 1 | 20 | 30 | 118 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 212 | 279 | 417 | 696 | 205 | 245 | 26 | 7 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | New York Yankees | — | 388 | 336 | 61 | 7 | 0 | 13 | 46 | 103 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 182 | 286 | 318 | 604 | 137 | 219 | 27 | 12 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | New York Yankees | — | 414 | 359 | 80 | 18 | 1 | 12 | 47 | 87 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 223 | 325 | 379 | 704 | 156 | 261 | 21 | 11 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | New York Yankees | — | 448 | 410 | 87 | 22 | 1 | 20 | 30 | 118 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 212 | 279 | 417 | 696 | 205 | 245 | 26 | 7 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | New York Yankees | — | 388 | 336 | 61 | 7 | 0 | 13 | 46 | 103 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 182 | 286 | 318 | 604 | 137 | 219 | 27 | 12 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | NYY | 100% | 418 | 369 | 78 | 14 | 1 | 15 | 42 | 105 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 211 | 299 | 378 | 677 | 167 | 249 | 25 | 10 | 303 | 91 | -4 | +1 | +7 | +7 | +9 | 1.7 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | NYY | 100% | 319 | 281 | 60 | 11 | 1 | 12 | 32 | 80 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 213 | 301 | 388 | 690 | 175 | 249 | 25 | 10 | 308 | 91 | -3 | +0 | +5 | +6 | +7 | 1.5 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | NYY | 98% | 310 | 273 | 56 | 10 | 0 | 11 | 31 | 79 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 209 | 297 | 371 | 668 | 163 | 247 | 25 | 10 | 299 | 89 | -4 | +0 | +4 | +6 | +7 | 1.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB MLE | NYY | 98% | 302 | 266 | 54 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 30 | 78 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 205 | 293 | 363 | 656 | 158 | 245 | 26 | 10 | 295 | 85 | -5 | -0 | +3 | +5 | +7 | 1.0 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB MLE | NYY | 98% | 269 | 238 | 48 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 27 | 70 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 201 | 287 | 352 | 639 | 151 | 241 | 26 | 10 | 288 | 81 | -6 | +0 | +2 | +5 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB MLE | NYY | 98% | 237 | 210 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 63 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 195 | 281 | 338 | 619 | 143 | 236 | 27 | 10 | 280 | 75 | -7 | +0 | +1 | +4 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | NYY | 98% | 304 | 267 | 56 | 10 | 0 | 12 | 31 | 77 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 211 | 299 | 381 | 680 | 170 | 248 | 25 | 10 | 304 | 89 | -4 | +0 | +4 | +5 | +7 | 1.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB CTX | NYY | 98% | 296 | 261 | 54 | 10 | 0 | 11 | 30 | 76 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 207 | 295 | 373 | 667 | 165 | 245 | 26 | 10 | 299 | 85 | -5 | -0 | +3 | +5 | +6 | 1.0 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB CTX | NYY | 98% | 264 | 234 | 46 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 26 | 69 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 203 | 289 | 361 | 651 | 159 | 241 | 26 | 10 | 292 | 81 | -6 | +0 | +2 | +5 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB CTX | NYY | 98% | 232 | 205 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 62 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 197 | 282 | 347 | 629 | 150 | 236 | 27 | 10 | 284 | 75 | -7 | +0 | +1 | +4 | +5 | 0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2421 | 2126 | 443 | 88 | 2 | 92 | 238 | 606 | 23 | 15 | 5 | 208 | 295 | 381 | 676 | 173 | 241 | 25 | 10 | 301 | 86 | -33 | +1 | +50 | +51 | +52 | 12.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 571 | 120 | 24 | 1 | 25 | 64 | 163 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 210 | 296 | 387 | 683 | 177 | 244 | 25 | 10 | 301 | 86 | -9 | +0 | +13 | +14 | +14 | 3.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4141 | 3646 | 757 | 157 | 9 | 141 | 397 | 1108 | 49 | 58 | 7 | 208 | 294 | 372 | 666 | 164 | 253 | 27 | 10 | 296 | 86 | -37 | +1 | +55 | +57 | +60 | 13.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 572 | 119 | 25 | 1 | 22 | 62 | 174 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 208 | 294 | 371 | 665 | 163 | 253 | 27 | 10 | 296 | 86 | -9 | +0 | +13 | +13 | +14 | 3.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AASomerset Patriots · 263 PAwOBA .333 → .277 (−56)K% 22.8% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.81% | ÷1.006 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.27% | ÷0.973 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 7.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.14% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.26% | ÷0.987 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 16.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.958 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 7.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.55% | ÷1.033 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 5.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 97, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .333 → .277; ISO .206 → .164; BABIP .269 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 146 PAwOBA .349 → .286 (−63)K% 23.3% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.29% | ÷0.998 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.96% | ÷1.059 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 7.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.05% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 2.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.48% | ÷1.029 | ×0.930 | ×0.952 | ×1.048 | 16.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.87% | ÷0.903 | ×0.830 | ×0.952 | ×1.048 | 9.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.048 | ×0.970 | ×0.952 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.43% | ÷1.017 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 3.92% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 106, 2B 81, 3B 110, K 100, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .349 → .286; ISO .198 → .157; BABIP .307 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ATampa Tarpons · 20 PAwOBA .292 → .217 (−75)K% 15.0% → 20.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.00% | ÷0.975 | ×1.360 | — | — | 20.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.00% | ÷1.079 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 9.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷0.987 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.980 | 13.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.972 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.086 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 5.16% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 97, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 95, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .292 → .217; ISO .176 → .127; BABIP .154 → .138. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AASomerset Patriots · 247 PAwOBA .364 → .304 (−60)K% 23.5% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.48% | ÷0.998 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.74% | ÷0.985 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 8.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.02% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 1.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷0.983 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 21.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.23% | ÷0.972 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 4.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.65% | ÷0.969 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.84% | ÷1.032 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 6.09% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 97, 2B 94, 3B 94, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .364 → .304; ISO .218 → .171; BABIP .301 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 121 PAwOBA .421 → .329 (−93)K% 22.3% → 28.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.31% | ÷1.015 | ×1.310 | — | — | 28.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.70% | ÷0.976 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 9.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.39% | ÷1.084 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 20.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.72% | ÷0.895 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 8.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.028 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.014 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 7.22% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 117, 2B 79, 3B 106, K 103, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .421 → .329; ISO .253 → .223; BABIP .388 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ATampa Tarpons · 34 PAwOBA .405 → .308 (−97)K% 14.7% → 20.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.71% | ÷0.975 | ×1.360 | — | — | 20.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 23.53% | ÷1.056 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 15.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.085 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.990 | 8.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷0.989 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.990 | 7.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.937 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.026 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 7.35% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 117, 2B 98, 3B 87, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .405 → .308; ISO .308 → .252; BABIP .211 → .172. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ATampa Tarpons · 299 PAwOBA .383 → .303 (−81)K% 20.7% → 28.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.74% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.72% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | — | 11.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.34% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.955 | — | 15.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.955 | — | 7.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.955 | — | 2.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | — | 4.14% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .383 → .303; ISO .220 → .179; BABIP .306 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 170 PAwOBA .368 → .274 (−94)K% 32.4% → 43.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.35% | ÷1.000 | ×1.350 | — | — | 43.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 8.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.35% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 1.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.986 | ×1.012 | 25.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.986 | ×1.012 | 5.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.10% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.986 | ×1.012 | 0.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 6.46% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .368 → .274; ISO .199 → .143; BABIP .393 → .345. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).