Matt Thaiss

C Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 32 L/R 5'11" / 215 lbs AAA HR -6% Svc 8.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	29	MLBLAA	186	.204/.324/.299	2	3	85	0.3
2025	30	AAATB	65	.200/.323/.309	1	0	38	—	.190/.277/.293
2025	30	MLBTB	190	.218/.351/.288	1	1	86	0.8
2026	31	AAAHOU	217	.203/.307/.310	3	1	38	—	.169/.247/.246
2027PROJ10% MLB	32	MLBHOU	16	.215/.308/.326	0	0	80	0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	33	MLBHOU	36	.207/.299/.309	0	0	73	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service8.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

Bat Spd58

xwOBA52

Barrel%50

Avg EV37

Speed10

CompsBryan Holaday (age 32) · Miguel Ojeda (age 32) · Chad Moeller (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 6080vR 87

AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .308 / .326

PA16

HR0

K%25

BB%12

BABIP270

ISO71

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 35 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT35

xAVG

100.209

POWER45

Barrel%

508.1

Avg EV

3788.1

Bat Spd

5872.2

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED35

Sprint

1025.2

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 376 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

307

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

231

308

▶▶R

ISO

065

088

▶▶R

BABIP

243

325

▶▶R

18.8%

29.6%

◀◀L

BB%

5.8%

17.3%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 8.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$1M
Totals		$1M		$0.1M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2016	21	A	Burlington Bees	—	226	199	55	12	3	4	22	28	2	1	0	276	354	427	781	151	302	12	10	345	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	ROK	Orem Owlz	—	71	65	22	7	1	2	4	4	2	2	4	338	394	569	964	231	339	6	6	421	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA	Mobile BayBears	—	221	178	52	14	0	1	37	50	2	4	3	292	419	388	807	96	389	23	17	366	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+	Inland Empire 66ers	—	385	336	89	13	4	8	40	59	7	4	3	265	355	399	754	134	299	15	10	340	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	78	64	17	3	1	0	11	24	1	4	2	266	382	344	725	78	405	31	14	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	400	368	102	24	6	10	28	68	1	6	3	277	330	457	786	179	314	17	7	344	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	Mobile BayBears	—	176	157	45	10	2	6	16	35	1	2	1	287	356	490	847	204	331	20	9	369	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	164	147	31	7	0	8	17	52	0	0	0	211	293	422	714	211	264	32	10	317	101	+0	+0	-5	+2	+4	0.1
2019	24	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	372	310	85	17	2	14	59	64	1	1	0	274	392	477	869	203	303	17	16	385	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	46	38	10	2	0	1	8	10	0	1	0	263	391	395	786	132	333	22	17	360	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	25	21	3	0	0	1	4	8	0	0	0	143	280	286	566	143	167	32	16	267	66	-1	+0	-1	-0	+1	-0.2
2021	26	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	449	379	106	23	4	17	60	92	6	2	1	280	387	496	883	216	325	20	13	387	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	81	69	15	1	0	2	11	24	0	1	0	217	325	319	644	101	295	30	14	296	80	-2	+0	-3	+7	+2	0.5
2022	27	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	332	284	76	16	3	10	43	61	2	7	0	268	368	451	818	183	306	18	13	362	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	307	262	56	6	0	9	36	83	6	2	0	214	322	340	662	126	272	27	12	303	90	-4	+0	+2	+5	+7	1.1
2024	29	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	186	157	32	9	0	2	28	58	0	3	0	204	324	299	624	96	306	31	15	292	85	-3	+1	-2	+3	+4	0.3
2025	30	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	190	156	34	6	1	1	29	46	3	1	1	218	351	288	640	71	300	24	15	302	86	-3	-0	+3	+5	+4	0.8
2025	30	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	65	55	11	3	0	1	9	13	1	0	0	200	323	309	632	109	244	20	14	297	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	217	187	38	9	1	3	24	36	4	1	1	203	307	310	617	107	235	17	11	284	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	953	812	171	29	1	23	125	271	9	7	1	211	322	334	656	123	282	28	13	301	90	-11	+1	-6	+22	+21	2.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2016	21	A MLE	Burlington Bees	—	226	207	51	10	3	3	14	40	2	1	0	246	300	367	668	121	284	18	6	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	ROK MLE	Orem Owlz	—	71	67	17	5	1	1	2	6	2	2	4	254	296	403	699	149	257	8	3	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	221	190	48	11	0	1	25	61	2	4	3	253	346	326	672	74	349	28	11	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	385	348	83	12	3	7	28	81	7	4	3	239	308	351	659	112	287	21	7	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	400	376	84	19	5	8	20	88	1	6	3	223	264	364	629	141	264	22	5	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	176	162	40	9	2	5	11	42	1	2	1	247	299	420	719	173	289	24	6	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	164	147	31	7	0	8	17	52	0	0	0	211	293	422	714	211	264	32	10	317	101	+0	+0	-5	+2	+4	0.1
2019	24	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	372	324	72	13	2	11	45	82	1	1	0	222	319	377	695	154	257	22	12	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	25	21	3	0	0	1	4	8	0	0	0	143	280	286	566	143	167	32	16	266	66	-1	+0	-1	-0	+1	-0.2
2021	26	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	449	402	99	21	3	14	37	112	6	2	1	246	319	418	737	172	298	25	8	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	81	70	15	1	0	2	10	24	0	1	0	214	312	314	627	100	295	30	12	287	80	-2	+0	-3	+7	+2	0.5
2022	27	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	332	299	71	15	3	7	28	74	2	7	0	237	307	378	685	140	284	22	8	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	307	263	56	6	0	9	35	83	6	2	0	213	319	338	657	125	272	27	11	301	90	-4	+0	+2	+5	+7	1.1
2024	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	186	157	32	9	0	2	28	58	0	3	0	204	324	299	624	96	306	31	15	294	85	-3	+1	-2	+3	+4	0.3
2025	30	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	190	156	33	6	1	1	29	46	3	1	1	212	346	282	628	71	300	24	15	296	86	-3	-0	+3	+5	+4	0.8
2025	30	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	65	58	11	3	0	1	6	15	1	0	0	190	277	293	570	103	210	23	9	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	217	195	33	7	1	2	16	43	4	1	1	169	247	246	493	77	203	20	7	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	297	273	67	15	4	4	17	46	4	3	4	245	299	374	673	128	280	15	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	297	264	77	19	4	6	26	32	4	3	4	292	364	462	826	170	311	11	9	363	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	684	607	149	27	3	9	59	161	10	12	8	245	322	344	667	99	315	24	9	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	684	578	158	30	5	9	88	133	10	12	8	273	379	389	768	116	336	19	13	347	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	576	539	123	27	7	13	30	130	2	8	4	228	271	377	648	148	274	23	5	281	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	576	525	147	34	8	16	44	103	2	8	4	280	338	467	805	187	319	18	8	352	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	582	512	111	22	2	20	67	145	1	2	0	217	309	385	693	168	261	25	12	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	582	495	126	26	2	23	84	126	1	2	0	255	364	455	818	200	296	22	14	364	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	25	21	3	0	0	1	4	8	0	0	0	143	280	286	566	143	167	32	16	266	66	-1	+0	-1	-0	+1	-0.2
2020	25	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	25	21	3	0	0	1	4	8	0	0	0	143	280	286	566	143	167	32	16	267	66	-1	+0	-1	-0	+1	-0.2
2021	26	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	449	402	99	21	3	14	37	112	6	2	1	246	319	418	737	172	304	25	8	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	—	449	379	106	23	4	17	60	92	6	2	1	280	387	496	883	216	325	20	13	387	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	413	369	86	16	3	9	38	98	2	8	0	233	308	366	674	133	289	24	9	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	413	353	91	17	3	12	54	85	2	8	0	258	359	425	784	167	304	21	13	349	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	307	263	56	6	0	9	35	83	6	2	0	213	319	338	657	125	270	27	11	301	90	-4	+0	+2	+5	+7	1.1
2023	28	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	307	262	56	6	0	9	36	83	6	2	0	214	322	340	662	126	272	27	12	303	90	-4	+0	+2	+5	+7	1.1
2024	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	186	157	32	9	0	2	28	58	0	3	0	204	324	299	624	96	306	31	15	294	85	-3	+1	-2	+3	+4	0.3
2024	29	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	186	157	32	9	0	2	28	58	0	3	0	204	324	299	624	96	306	31	15	292	85	-3	+1	-2	+3	+4	0.3
2025	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	255	214	42	8	1	1	35	61	4	1	1	196	320	257	577	61	268	24	14	278	74	-8	-0	+3	+5	+6	0.5
2025	30	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	255	211	45	9	1	2	38	59	4	1	1	213	344	294	638	81	285	23	15	301	74	-8	-0	+3	+5	+6	0.5
2026	31	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	217	195	33	7	1	2	16	43	4	1	1	169	247	246	493	77	205	20	7	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	217	187	38	9	1	3	24	36	4	1	1	203	307	310	617	107	235	17	11	284	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	297	274	67	15	4	4	17	46	4	3	4	245	299	372	672	128	278	15	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	684	610	149	27	3	9	59	161	10	12	8	244	322	343	665	98	310	24	9	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	576	539	123	27	7	13	30	130	2	8	4	228	271	377	648	148	272	23	5	281	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	582	509	111	22	2	20	67	145	1	2	0	218	309	387	696	169	259	25	12	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	25	21	3	0	0	1	4	8	0	0	0	143	280	286	566	143	167	32	16	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	449	403	99	21	3	14	37	112	6	2	1	246	319	417	736	171	298	25	8	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	413	370	86	16	3	9	38	98	2	8	0	232	308	365	673	132	286	24	9	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	307	263	56	6	0	9	35	83	6	2	0	213	319	338	657	125	272	27	11	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	186	156	32	9	0	2	28	58	0	3	0	205	324	301	626	96	306	31	15	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	255	214	42	8	1	1	35	61	4	1	1	196	320	257	577	61	277	24	14	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	217	195	33	7	1	2	16	43	4	1	1	169	247	246	493	77	203	20	7	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	186	156	32	9	0	2	28	58	0	3	0	205	324	301	626	96	306	31	15	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	255	214	42	8	1	1	35	61	4	1	1	196	320	257	577	61	277	24	14	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	217	195	33	7	1	2	16	43	4	1	1	169	247	246	493	77	203	20	7	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	HOU	10%	265	231	49	11	1	4	28	60	4	2	1	212	305	322	627	110	265	23	11	287	80	-6	+0	-2	+5	+6	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	HOU	10%	16	14	3	1	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	215	308	326	634	111	270	25	12	290	80	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	HOU	27%	133	116	24	5	1	2	14	31	2	0	0	204	297	305	601	101	259	23	11	277	73	-4	+0	-5	+2	+3	-0.4
2028	33	MLB CTX	HOU	27%	36	32	5	1	0	0	4	8	0	0	0	207	299	309	608	102	263	22	11	279	73	-1	+0	-1	+1	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	989	844	176	30	1	23	129	279	9	7	1	209	320	328	648	120	279	28	13	301	84	-12	+1	-7	+23	+21	2.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	555	116	20	1	15	85	183	6	5	1	209	321	330	651	121	280	28	13	301	84	-8	+1	-5	+15	+14	1.8
Career	—	MLE		—	4288	3812	856	170	26	89	397	1013	43	43	20	225	305	353	658	128	280	24	9	293	84	-19	+1	-12	+28	+27	2.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	130	26	4	13	60	154	7	7	3	225	305	351	657	126	281	24	9	293	84	-10	+0	-6	+14	+14	1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 217 PAwOBA .279 → .224 (−55)K% 16.6% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.59%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	19.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.06%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.962	7.34%
HBP% /PA	1.84%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	1.67%
Singles /BIP	16.56%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.997	×0.962	14.77%
Doubles /BIP	5.96%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.997	×0.962	4.75%
Triples /BIP	0.66%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.997	×0.962	0.62%
Home runs /BIP	1.99%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.962	1.34%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .279 → .224; ISO .107 → .082; BABIP .235 → .203. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAADurham Bulls · 65 PAwOBA .290 → .225 (−65)K% 20.0% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷1.057	×1.200	—	—	22.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.85%	÷1.030	×0.690	—	×0.972	9.02%
HBP% /PA	1.54%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	1.41%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷0.956	×0.930	×0.950	×0.972	14.98%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷0.940	×0.830	×0.950	×0.972	5.82%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.950	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.38%	÷1.380	×0.700	—	×0.972	1.17%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 176, 1B 91, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 111, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .290 → .225; ISO .109 → .074; BABIP .244 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASalt Lake Bees · 332 PAwOBA .355 → .300 (−55)K% 18.4% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.37%	÷0.989	×1.200	—	—	22.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.65%	÷1.034	×0.690	—	×1.003	8.47%
HBP% /PA	0.60%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.57%
Singles /BIP	21.08%	÷0.993	×0.930	×1.026	×1.003	20.30%
Doubles /BIP	7.17%	÷0.956	×0.830	×1.026	×1.003	6.40%
Triples /BIP	1.35%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.026	×1.003	1.17%
Home runs /BIP	4.48%	÷0.978	×0.700	—	×1.003	3.22%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 98, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .355 → .300; ISO .183 → .148; BABIP .306 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASalt Lake Bees · 449 PAwOBA .378 → .320 (−58)K% 20.5% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.49%	÷0.982	×1.200	—	—	25.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.69%	÷1.090	×0.690	—	×1.018	8.18%
HBP% /PA	1.34%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.28%
Singles /BIP	21.60%	÷1.032	×0.930	×1.038	×1.018	20.58%
Doubles /BIP	8.01%	÷1.002	×0.830	×1.038	×1.018	7.02%
Triples /BIP	1.39%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.038	×1.018	1.18%
Home runs /BIP	5.92%	÷0.907	×0.700	—	×1.018	4.66%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 106, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 96, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.

Result: wOBA .378 → .320; ISO .216 → .181; BABIP .325 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAASalt Lake Bees · 372 PAwOBA .377 → .304 (−73)K% 17.2% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.20%	÷1.009	×1.290	—	—	22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.86%	÷0.980	×0.710	—	×1.048	12.04%
HBP% /PA	0.27%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	0.28%
Singles /BIP	21.14%	÷1.007	×0.900	×0.950	×1.048	18.81%
Doubles /BIP	6.91%	÷1.062	×0.810	×0.950	×1.048	5.25%
Triples /BIP	0.81%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.950	×1.048	0.73%
Home runs /BIP	5.69%	÷1.059	×0.780	—	×1.048	4.39%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 101, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 102, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .377 → .304; ISO .203 → .157; BABIP .303 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAASalt Lake Bees · 400 PAwOBA .337 → .271 (−66)K% 17.0% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.00%	÷1.003	×1.290	—	—	21.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.00%	÷1.068	×0.710	—	×1.050	4.88%
HBP% /PA	0.25%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.26%
Singles /BIP	20.67%	÷1.064	×0.900	×0.974	×1.050	17.87%
Doubles /BIP	8.00%	÷1.045	×0.810	×0.974	×1.050	6.34%
Triples /BIP	2.00%	÷0.969	×0.810	×0.974	×1.050	1.71%
Home runs /BIP	3.33%	÷0.958	×0.780	—	×1.050	2.85%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 113, 2B 109, 3B 94, K 101, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.

Result: wOBA .337 → .271; ISO .179 → .145; BABIP .314 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAMobile BayBears · 176 PAwOBA .363 → .305 (−58)K% 19.9% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.89%	÷1.012	×1.220	—	—	23.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.09%	÷1.040	×0.680	—	×1.027	6.10%
HBP% /PA	0.57%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	0.49%
Singles /BIP	22.13%	÷1.021	×0.920	×0.950	×1.027	19.45%
Doubles /BIP	8.20%	÷1.014	×0.910	×0.950	×1.027	7.18%
Triples /BIP	1.64%	÷0.944	×0.880	×0.950	×1.027	1.49%
Home runs /BIP	4.92%	÷0.959	×0.800	—	×1.027	4.21%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 89, K 102, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .363 → .305; ISO .204 → .177; BABIP .331 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Inland Empire 66ers · 385 PAwOBA .332 → .291 (−41)K% 15.3% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.32%	÷0.975	×1.340	—	—	21.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.13%	÷1.003	×0.710	—	×1.012	7.26%
HBP% /PA	1.82%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	1.45%
Singles /BIP	23.10%	÷0.955	×0.910	×1.020	×1.012	22.71%
Doubles /BIP	4.69%	÷0.891	×0.820	×1.020	×1.012	4.46%
Triples /BIP	1.44%	÷1.150	×0.760	×1.020	×1.012	0.98%
Home runs /BIP	2.89%	÷1.008	×0.920	—	×1.012	2.67%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 91, 2B 78, 3B 130, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .332 → .291; ISO .134 → .116; BABIP .299 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Devin Mesoracolast yr '18 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,574 PA	2.4	1,574	58	4	232	309	406	+28	-13	6.0	6.2
/162	664	24	2	+11.9	-5.3	2.5	pk7: 6
#3Jerry May'64-'73 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,716 PA	2.6	1,716	15	1	236*	314*	355*	+31	+0	5.6	5.6
/162	664	6	0	+11.8	+0.0	2.2	pk7: 6
#4Doug Mirabelli'96-'07 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,655 PA	2.5	1,655	58	3	222*	307*	395*	+26	+0	5.5	5.6
/162	664	23	1	+10.6	+0.0	2.2	pk7: 6
#5Glenn Borgmann'72-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,526 PA	2.3	1,526	16	4	229*	328*	338*	+27	+0	4.5	4.4
/162	664	7	2	+11.8	+0.0	2.0	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	1.5	981	23	7	213	320	335	+18	-4	3.3	3.3
/162	664	15	5	+11.9	-2.8	2.2	pk7: 3
#6Jason Phillipslast yr '07 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,508 PA	2.3	1,508	29	0	248	314	368	+11	-10	2.7	2.7
/162	664	13	0	+4.7	-4.4	1.2	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Thaiss (OGILVIE)	32	35	45	35	60	210/303/319	109	265	3	1	23%	10%	80	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Bryan Holaday 2020 · MLB	32	46	45	38→40	48	230/289/352	123	258	13	4	17%	6%	82	-0.0	222/283/363	141	267	15	7	23%	7%	82	-0.0	186/238/360	174	219	21	4	27%	5%	67	-0.3
✕Miguel Ojeda 2007 · MLB	32	46→45	45	41→45	50	227/292/347	120	263	13	5	19%	8%	81	-0.1	233/294/353	120	273	12	7	19%	7%	83	+0.1	237/302/363	127	268	13	7	17%	8%	87	+0.2
✕Chad Moeller 2007 · MLB	32	40	44→50	38→30	44	203/258/316	113	245	12	3	23%	6%	61	-1.5	208/262/318	110	260	11	4	24%	6%	63	-1.3	200/250/291	90	248	5	0	21%	5%	52	-0.6
✕Brian Jeroloman 2016 · AAA	31	40→39	37→40	38→40	50	194/270/261	67	251	6	3	24%	9%	53	-2.1	211/285/297	86	281	6	7	25%	9%	67	-1.1	190/272/252	62	266	0	0	26%	9%	50	-0.5
✕Mark Johnson 2008 · AAA	32	50	40	40	56	237/315/323	86	268	7	4	14%	10%	84	+0.2	223/297/297	74	265	6	7	17%	8%	72	-0.7	226/300/268	42	267	2	2	15%	9%	63	-0.6
✕Eric Munson 2010 · MLB	32	41→43	46→60	40	50	208/280/339	131	249	14	3	22%	8%	76	-0.4	214/293/358	144	264	17	6	25%	9%	85	+0.2	169/273/312	143	193	22	0	26%	10%	66	-0.3
✕Paul Bako 2004 · MLB	32	48	41→45	41→40	50	228/293/336	108	280	7	3	20%	8%	79	-0.2	221/289/312	91	282	6	5	22%	8%	72	-0.7	217/284/304	87	290	9	0	27%	8%	68	-0.4
✕Henry Blanco 2004 · MLB	32	42	43→50	42→40	48	207/261/322	115	235	11	4	18%	6%	63	-1.3	222/271/367	145	240	16	3	15%	6%	78	-0.3	254/304/390	137	291	14	0	18%	7%	96	+0.4
✕Steve Holm 2011 · MLB	31	44	42→50	39→40	46	215/279/326	111	261	9	4	21%	6%	72	-0.7	195/259/292	97	252	8	6	25%	7%	57	-1.8	143/204/187	44	198	2	0	27%	6%	11	-1.7
✕Luis Antonio Rodriguez 2012 · MLB	32	47→50	46→45	38→45	56	230/301/363	133	241	14	6	12%	9%	88	+0.5	224/284/343	119	243	12	6	14%	7%	78	-0.3	225/280/330	106	244	11	4	13%	6%	70	-0.5
✕Juan Centeno 2023 · AAA	33	47	46→45	42→40	42	233/273/360	127	270	13	4	20%	4%	77	-0.3	220/263/311	91	300	8	8	28%	5%	61	-1.5	203/243/240	37	305	1	7	32%	5%	34	-1.6
✕Luke Carlin 2013 · MLB	32	44	40→45	43→45	53	212/287/302	90	253	8	5	20%	9%	70	-0.9	196/272/285	89	244	8	7	22%	9%	60	-1.6	167/252/243	76	211	6	5	23%	9%	41	-1.2
✕Beau Taylor 2022 · MLB	32	42→48	42→45	47→30	45	205/284/309	104	291	10	4	31%	9%	70	-0.8	211/293/321	110	297	11	6	30%	9%	76	-0.4	175/280/266	91	247	11	0	31%	11%	57	-0.6
✕Iker Franco 2013 · AAA	32	46→47	46→50	40	48	231/289/355	124	269	15	3	21%	8%	82	+0.0	223/279/316	93	271	10	3	21%	7%	69	-0.9	234/287/315	81	287	9	1	21%	7%	69	-0.3
✕Hector Paez 2010 · AAA	32	49	43→45	36→40	41	241/275/350	110	270	11	4	16%	3%	76	-0.4	220/248/313	93	240	10	6	13%	3%	56	-1.9	223/254/311	88	241	10	2	12%	2%	57	-0.7
✕Koyie Hill 2010 · MLB	31	46→42	44→45	45→40	44	226/281/348	122	289	11	4	25%	7%	78	-0.3	206/253/300	94	274	8	5	27%	6%	55	-1.9	181/220/251	69	241	6	3	27%	5%	31	-1.3
✕Dusty Brown 2012 · MLB	30	42	46→45	42→30	44	212/270/342	130	268	13	5	26%	7%	72	-0.7	212/286/361	149	271	16	6	27%	9%	83	+0.1	179/284/322	144	218	15	0	25%	12%	74	-0.2
✕Tony Cruz 2017 · MLB	30	44→39	41→45	42→40	45	217/271/316	100	274	9	5	24%	7%	66	-1.1	214/266/339	125	285	14	5	29%	6%	70	-0.9	213/260/332	119	284	15	0	30%	4%	65	-0.4
✕Yoshi Tsutsugo 2023 · MLB	31	42→41	49→50	39→30	52	216/299/359	143	271	18	2	27%	10%	87	+0.4	224/310/364	140	307	16	7	30%	11%	93	+0.8	208/312/349	140	296	16	5	32%	12%	87	+0.2
✕Royce Huffman 2009 · AAA	32	45→50	42→45	43→45	48	220/289/327	107	273	9	6	22%	8%	76	-0.4	230/293/331	101	290	9	8	22%	7%	78	-0.3	234/298/316	83	294	6	5	21%	7%	74	-0.5

Matt Thaiss

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps