Brian Jeroloman
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 29 | AAWSH | 269 | .188/.280/.291 | 6 | 0 | 24 | — | .159/.220/.237 |
| 2015 | 30 | AAWSH | 171 | .215/.386/.246 | 0 | 0 | 52 | — | .194/.301/.215 |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 131 | .229/.352/.305 | 0 | 0 | 50 | — | .197/.281/.269 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 22 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 382 | 290 | 75 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 85 | 57 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 428 | 338 | 766 | 79 | 305 | 15 | 22 | 358 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 88 | 75 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 302 | 227 | 529 | 27 | 259 | 19 | 12 | 250 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 285 | 226 | 60 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 47 | 47 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 265 | 399 | 412 | 810 | 146 | 305 | 16 | 16 | 358 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 432 | 364 | 79 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 62 | 120 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 217 | 333 | 316 | 648 | 99 | 303 | 28 | 14 | 299 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AAA | Las Vegas 51s | — | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 316 | 519 | 789 | 1.308 | 474 | 571 | 36 | 29 | 518 | 145 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 319 | 245 | 64 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 69 | 91 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 261 | 431 | 412 | 843 | 151 | 385 | 29 | 22 | 387 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA | Las Vegas 51s | — | 318 | 271 | 65 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 38 | 72 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 240 | 338 | 295 | 633 | 55 | 317 | 23 | 12 | 291 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 137 | 114 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 202 | 311 | 202 | 512 | 256 | 18 | 10 | 245 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 141 | 113 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 221 | 353 | 265 | 618 | 44 | 305 | 23 | 16 | 288 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 74 | 67 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 239 | 301 | 299 | 600 | 60 | 348 | 28 | 8 | 272 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 269 | 234 | 44 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 188 | 280 | 291 | 571 | 103 | 222 | 22 | 11 | 261 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 171 | 130 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 215 | 386 | 246 | 632 | 31 | 262 | 14 | 20 | 304 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 26 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 346 | 238 | 584 | 48 | 308 | 31 | 15 | 289 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 105 | 84 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 238 | 354 | 321 | 675 | 83 | 303 | 18 | 14 | 297 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 382 | 310 | 72 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 65 | 81 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 367 | 306 | 673 | 74 | 287 | 21 | 17 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 88 | 78 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 279 | 231 | 510 | 26 | 261 | 23 | 9 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 285 | 239 | 63 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 34 | 57 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 264 | 362 | 389 | 751 | 126 | 302 | 20 | 12 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 432 | 383 | 72 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 43 | 146 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 188 | 272 | 266 | 538 | 78 | 282 | 34 | 10 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas 51s | — | 28 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 238 | 407 | 619 | 1.026 | 381 | 441 | 46 | 21 | 382 | 145 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 319 | 266 | 56 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 48 | 112 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 211 | 340 | 331 | 670 | 120 | 334 | 35 | 15 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas 51s | — | 318 | 281 | 56 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 93 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 199 | 277 | 235 | 511 | 36 | 281 | 29 | 9 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 137 | 119 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 29 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 193 | 273 | 193 | 466 | 239 | 21 | 7 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 141 | 120 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 192 | 287 | 225 | 512 | 33 | 273 | 28 | 11 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 74 | 69 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 260 | 275 | 536 | 58 | 328 | 34 | 5 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 269 | 245 | 39 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 159 | 220 | 237 | 456 | 78 | 202 | 28 | 7 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 171 | 144 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 194 | 301 | 215 | 516 | 21 | 233 | 17 | 12 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 26 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 130 | 231 | 174 | 405 | 43 | 261 | 38 | 8 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 105 | 89 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 293 | 292 | 585 | 79 | 264 | 23 | 10 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 382 | 310 | 72 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 65 | 81 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 367 | 306 | 673 | 74 | 297 | 21 | 17 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | A+ RAW | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 382 | 290 | 75 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 85 | 57 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 428 | 338 | 766 | 79 | 305 | 15 | 22 | 358 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 373 | 317 | 78 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 42 | 78 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 246 | 340 | 344 | 684 | 98 | 307 | 21 | 11 | 302 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 373 | 301 | 75 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 58 | 64 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 249 | 376 | 365 | 741 | 116 | 294 | 17 | 16 | 333 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 432 | 383 | 72 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 43 | 146 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 188 | 272 | 266 | 538 | 78 | 285 | 34 | 10 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AA RAW | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 432 | 364 | 79 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 62 | 120 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 217 | 333 | 316 | 648 | 99 | 303 | 28 | 14 | 299 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 347 | 288 | 60 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 53 | 125 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 208 | 339 | 337 | 676 | 128 | 338 | 36 | 15 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 347 | 264 | 70 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 77 | 101 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 265 | 438 | 439 | 877 | 174 | 394 | 29 | 22 | 397 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas 51s | — | 318 | 281 | 56 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 93 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 199 | 277 | 235 | 511 | 36 | 291 | 29 | 9 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA RAW | Las Vegas 51s | — | 318 | 271 | 65 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 38 | 72 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 240 | 338 | 295 | 633 | 55 | 317 | 23 | 12 | 291 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 137 | 119 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 29 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 193 | 273 | 193 | 466 | 253 | 21 | 7 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 27 | AA RAW | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 137 | 114 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 202 | 311 | 202 | 512 | 256 | 18 | 10 | 245 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 215 | 189 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 64 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 206 | 282 | 249 | 531 | 42 | 310 | 30 | 9 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 215 | 180 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 53 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 228 | 335 | 278 | 613 | 50 | 320 | 25 | 13 | 282 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 269 | 245 | 39 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 159 | 220 | 237 | 456 | 78 | 204 | 28 | 7 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AA RAW | Harrisburg Senators | — | 269 | 234 | 44 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 188 | 280 | 291 | 571 | 103 | 222 | 22 | 11 | 261 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 171 | 144 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 194 | 301 | 215 | 516 | 21 | 241 | 17 | 12 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AA RAW | Harrisburg Senators | — | 171 | 130 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 215 | 386 | 246 | 632 | 31 | 262 | 14 | 20 | 304 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 131 | 112 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 288 | 277 | 565 | 71 | 291 | 26 | 9 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 131 | 105 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 352 | 305 | 657 | 76 | 304 | 21 | 15 | 295 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 382 | 313 | 72 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 65 | 81 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 230 | 367 | 304 | 671 | 73 | 287 | 21 | 17 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 373 | 325 | 78 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 42 | 78 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 240 | 340 | 335 | 675 | 95 | 292 | 21 | 11 | 302 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 432 | 385 | 72 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 43 | 146 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 187 | 272 | 265 | 537 | 78 | 282 | 34 | 10 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 347 | 287 | 60 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 53 | 125 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 209 | 339 | 338 | 677 | 129 | 343 | 36 | 15 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas 51s | — | 318 | 285 | 56 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 93 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 196 | 277 | 232 | 508 | 35 | 281 | 29 | 9 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 137 | 123 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 29 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 187 | 273 | 187 | 460 | 239 | 21 | 7 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 215 | 193 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 64 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 202 | 282 | 244 | 526 | 41 | 292 | 30 | 9 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 269 | 248 | 39 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 157 | 220 | 234 | 454 | 77 | 202 | 28 | 7 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 171 | 147 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 190 | 301 | 211 | 512 | 20 | 233 | 17 | 12 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 131 | 117 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 288 | 265 | 553 | 68 | 263 | 26 | 9 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2775 | 2388 | 490 | 85 | 3 | 26 | 311 | 754 | 18 | 7 | 10 | 205 | 301 | 276 | 577 | 71 | 285 | 27 | 11 | 262 | 63 | -121 | -3 | +0 | +50 | +60 | -1.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 559 | 115 | 20 | 1 | 6 | 73 | 177 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 206 | 301 | 277 | 579 | 72 | 286 | 27 | 11 | 262 | 63 | -28 | -0 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2016 AAHarrisburg Senators · 105 PAwOBA .293 → .250 (−43)K% 18.1% → 22.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.10% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.940 | 9.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.54% | ÷1.029 | ×0.970 | ×0.989 | ×0.940 | 18.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.922 | ×0.860 | ×0.989 | ×0.940 | 6.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.137 | ×0.950 | ×0.989 | ×0.940 | 1.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.445 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 189, 1B 106, 2B 84, 3B 127, K 96, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 24.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .293 → .250; ISO .083 → .077; BABIP .303 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 26 PAwOBA .283 → .211 (−72)K% 30.8% → 38.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.77% | ÷0.949 | ×1.200 | — | — | 38.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.38% | ÷1.110 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.962 | 9.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.85% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.962 | 3.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷1.048 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.962 | 19.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.959 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.962 | 6.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.978 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 110, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 90, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .283 → .211; ISO .048 → .038; BABIP .308 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAHarrisburg Senators · 171 PAwOBA .298 → .245 (−53)K% 14.0% → 16.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.04% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.88% | ÷1.052 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.948 | 12.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.58% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.948 | 0.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.64% | ÷0.962 | ×0.970 | ×0.957 | ×0.948 | 20.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.77% | ÷1.070 | ×0.860 | ×0.957 | ×0.948 | 2.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.916 | ×0.950 | ×0.957 | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.986 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 92, 2B 114, 3B 83, K 104, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .298 → .245; ISO .031 → .025; BABIP .262 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAHarrisburg Senators · 269 PAwOBA .256 → .204 (−52)K% 21.9% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.93% | ÷0.955 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.15% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 7.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.29% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | ×1.011 | ×0.958 | 17.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.43% | ÷1.109 | ×0.860 | ×1.011 | ×0.958 | 2.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×1.011 | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.43% | ÷0.991 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 2.59% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 122, 3B 100, K 91, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .256 → .204; ISO .103 → .077; BABIP .222 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 141 PAwOBA .281 → .241 (−40)K% 22.7% → 27.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.70% | ÷0.979 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.89% | ÷0.966 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 10.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.69% | ÷0.991 | ×0.930 | ×0.981 | ×0.992 | 22.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.17% | ÷0.979 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | ×0.992 | 5.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.055 | ×0.970 | ×0.981 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.914 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 98, 2B 96, 3B 111, K 96, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .281 → .241; ISO .044 → .039; BABIP .305 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAHarrisburg Senators · 74 PAwOBA .265 → .232 (−33)K% 28.4% → 33.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.38% | ÷1.043 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.11% | ÷0.990 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 5.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.26% | ÷1.011 | ×0.970 | ×1.023 | ×0.968 | 26.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.883 | ×0.860 | ×1.023 | ×0.968 | 4.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.023 | ×0.968 | 1.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.012 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 102, 2B 77, 3B 130, K 109, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .265 → .232; ISO .060 → .052; BABIP .348 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 137 PAwOBA .238 → .215 (−22)K% 18.2% → 21.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.25% | ÷1.037 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.49% | ÷0.943 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 6.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.92% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 2.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.84% | ÷0.994 | ×0.970 | ×0.980 | ×0.978 | 24.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.987 | ×0.860 | ×0.980 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.019 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 99, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 107, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .238 → .215; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .256 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AAALas Vegas 51s · 318 PAwOBA .286 → .233 (−53)K% 22.6% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.64% | ÷0.992 | ×1.290 | — | — | 29.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.95% | ÷0.998 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 8.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.63% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.14% | ÷0.974 | ×0.900 | ×0.973 | ×1.018 | 24.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.52% | ÷1.082 | ×0.810 | ×0.973 | ×1.018 | 3.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.123 | ×0.810 | ×0.973 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.01% | ÷1.200 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 0.67% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 95, 2B 116, 3B 125, K 98, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .286 → .233; ISO .055 → .038; BABIP .317 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).