Zack Collins
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 26 | AAACWS | 38 | .143/.211/.400 | 3 | 0 | -1 | — | .111/.158/.278 | |
| 2021 | 26 | MLBCWS | 231 | .210/.330/.338 | 4 | 1 | 92 | -0.7 | ||
| 2022 | 27 | AAAPIT | 165 | .198/.369/.397 | 5 | 3 | 66 | — | .161/.281/.314 | |
| 2022 | 27 | MLBPIT | 108 | .155/.234/.320 | 4 | 0 | 57 | 0.3 | ||
| 2023 | 28 | AAACLE | 495 | .251/.360/.434 | 16 | 4 | 68 | — | .200/.281/.324 | |
| 2024 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 21 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 153 | 120 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 33 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 258 | 418 | 467 | 885 | 208 | 333 | 25 | 22 | 397 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 28 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 393 | 500 | 893 | 273 | 250 | 29 | 21 | 395 | 154 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 45 | 34 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 422 | 471 | 893 | 235 | 286 | 24 | 24 | 401 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 426 | 341 | 76 | 18 | 3 | 17 | 76 | 118 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 223 | 368 | 443 | 810 | 220 | 282 | 28 | 18 | 357 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 531 | 418 | 98 | 24 | 1 | 15 | 101 | 158 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 234 | 387 | 404 | 791 | 170 | 329 | 30 | 19 | 356 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 102 | 86 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 186 | 304 | 349 | 653 | 163 | 295 | 38 | 14 | 298 | 82 | -2 | +0 | -3 | +8 | +2 | 0.5 |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 367 | 294 | 83 | 19 | 1 | 19 | 62 | 98 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 282 | 412 | 548 | 960 | 265 | 346 | 27 | 17 | 411 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 18 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 62 | 167 | 125 | 292 | 62 | 91 | 28 | 11 | 149 | -14 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 231 | 195 | 41 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 34 | 69 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 210 | 330 | 338 | 669 | 128 | 303 | 30 | 15 | 308 | 92 | -2 | -0 | -14 | +5 | +5 | -0.7 |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 38 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 211 | 400 | 611 | 257 | 105 | 34 | 8 | 267 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 108 | 97 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 155 | 234 | 320 | 553 | 165 | 208 | 38 | 8 | 248 | 57 | -5 | +0 | +1 | +5 | +2 | 0.3 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 165 | 126 | 25 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 33 | 42 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 198 | 369 | 397 | 766 | 198 | 238 | 25 | 20 | 339 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 495 | 419 | 105 | 29 | 0 | 16 | 70 | 159 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 251 | 360 | 434 | 795 | 184 | 359 | 32 | 14 | 354 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 459 | 394 | 73 | 21 | 1 | 11 | 59 | 154 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 185 | 295 | 327 | 623 | 142 | 270 | 34 | 13 | 285 | 79 | -11 | -0 | -16 | +18 | +10 | 0.1 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 153 | 132 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 189 | 301 | 341 | 642 | 152 | 297 | 39 | 14 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 45 | 37 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 356 | 432 | 788 | 216 | 268 | 31 | 18 | 333 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 426 | 372 | 59 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 45 | 173 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 159 | 253 | 293 | 546 | 134 | 242 | 41 | 11 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 531 | 447 | 87 | 23 | 1 | 13 | 72 | 192 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 195 | 310 | 338 | 648 | 143 | 286 | 36 | 14 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 102 | 88 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 294 | 341 | 635 | 159 | 295 | 38 | 13 | 289 | 82 | -2 | +0 | -3 | +8 | +2 | 0.5 |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 367 | 315 | 71 | 17 | 1 | 14 | 41 | 122 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 320 | 419 | 739 | 194 | 297 | 33 | 11 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 18 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 62 | 167 | 125 | 292 | 62 | 91 | 28 | 11 | 148 | -14 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 231 | 196 | 41 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 33 | 69 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 209 | 326 | 337 | 663 | 128 | 303 | 30 | 14 | 304 | 92 | -2 | -0 | -14 | +5 | +5 | -0.7 |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 38 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 158 | 278 | 436 | 167 | 95 | 39 | 5 | 166 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB MLE | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 108 | 97 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 155 | 234 | 320 | 553 | 165 | 208 | 38 | 8 | 253 | 57 | -5 | +0 | +1 | +5 | +2 | 0.3 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 165 | 137 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 51 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 161 | 281 | 314 | 595 | 153 | 197 | 31 | 13 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 495 | 441 | 88 | 22 | 0 | 11 | 48 | 190 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 200 | 281 | 324 | 605 | 125 | 308 | 38 | 10 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 181 | 156 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 186 | 298 | 321 | 619 | 135 | 296 | 39 | 14 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 181 | 142 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 39 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 254 | 414 | 472 | 886 | 218 | 322 | 26 | 22 | 397 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 471 | 409 | 67 | 15 | 2 | 13 | 53 | 187 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 164 | 263 | 306 | 569 | 142 | 255 | 40 | 11 | 253 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 471 | 375 | 84 | 20 | 3 | 19 | 87 | 129 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 224 | 373 | 445 | 818 | 221 | 283 | 27 | 18 | 361 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 531 | 447 | 87 | 23 | 1 | 13 | 72 | 192 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 195 | 310 | 338 | 648 | 143 | 297 | 36 | 14 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA RAW | Birmingham Barons | — | 531 | 418 | 98 | 24 | 1 | 15 | 101 | 158 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 234 | 387 | 404 | 791 | 170 | 329 | 30 | 19 | 356 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 469 | 403 | 87 | 20 | 2 | 17 | 54 | 161 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 315 | 402 | 717 | 186 | 300 | 34 | 12 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 469 | 380 | 99 | 22 | 2 | 22 | 76 | 137 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 261 | 388 | 503 | 891 | 242 | 336 | 29 | 16 | 386 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 18 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 62 | 167 | 125 | 292 | 62 | 91 | 28 | 11 | 148 | -14 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0.2 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB RAW | Chicago White Sox | — | 18 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 62 | 167 | 125 | 292 | 62 | 91 | 28 | 11 | 149 | -14 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 269 | 232 | 45 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 84 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 194 | 302 | 328 | 630 | 134 | 275 | 31 | 13 | 284 | 79 | -7 | -0 | -14 | +5 | +6 | -1.1 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 269 | 230 | 46 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 37 | 82 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 200 | 313 | 348 | 661 | 148 | 277 | 30 | 14 | 302 | 79 | -7 | -0 | -14 | +5 | +6 | -1.1 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 273 | 234 | 37 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 92 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 158 | 262 | 316 | 578 | 158 | 207 | 34 | 11 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 273 | 223 | 40 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 42 | 83 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 179 | 315 | 363 | 678 | 184 | 226 | 30 | 15 | 303 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 495 | 441 | 88 | 22 | 0 | 11 | 48 | 190 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 200 | 281 | 324 | 605 | 125 | 316 | 38 | 10 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA RAW | Columbus Clippers | — | 495 | 419 | 105 | 29 | 0 | 16 | 70 | 159 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 251 | 360 | 434 | 795 | 184 | 359 | 32 | 14 | 354 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 181 | 154 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 298 | 325 | 623 | 136 | 297 | 39 | 14 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 471 | 413 | 67 | 15 | 2 | 13 | 53 | 187 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 162 | 263 | 303 | 566 | 140 | 244 | 40 | 11 | 253 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 531 | 451 | 87 | 23 | 1 | 13 | 72 | 192 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 193 | 310 | 335 | 645 | 142 | 286 | 36 | 14 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 469 | 408 | 87 | 20 | 2 | 17 | 54 | 161 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 315 | 397 | 712 | 184 | 297 | 34 | 12 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 18 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 62 | 167 | 125 | 292 | 62 | 91 | 28 | 11 | 148 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 269 | 231 | 45 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 84 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 195 | 302 | 329 | 631 | 134 | 274 | 31 | 13 | 284 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 273 | 238 | 37 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 92 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 155 | 262 | 311 | 573 | 155 | 201 | 34 | 11 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 495 | 442 | 88 | 22 | 0 | 11 | 48 | 190 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 199 | 281 | 324 | 605 | 124 | 308 | 38 | 10 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 459 | 394 | 73 | 21 | 1 | 11 | 59 | 154 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 185 | 295 | 327 | 623 | 142 | 270 | 34 | 13 | 285 | 76 | -11 | -0 | -16 | +18 | +10 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 558 | 104 | 30 | 1 | 16 | 84 | 218 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 186 | 296 | 330 | 626 | 143 | 271 | 34 | 13 | 285 | 76 | -16 | -0 | -23 | +26 | +14 | 0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2707 | 2338 | 441 | 111 | 6 | 73 | 320 | 981 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 189 | 290 | 335 | 625 | 146 | 280 | 36 | 12 | 280 | 76 | -11 | -0 | -16 | +18 | +10 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 561 | 106 | 27 | 1 | 18 | 77 | 236 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 189 | 290 | 337 | 627 | 148 | 280 | 36 | 12 | 280 | 76 | -16 | -0 | -23 | +26 | +14 | 0.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AAAColumbus Clippers · 495 PAwOBA .347 → .268 (−79)K% 32.1% → 38.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.12% | ÷1.008 | ×1.200 | — | — | 38.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.94% | ÷0.994 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 9.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.40% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷0.963 | ×0.930 | ×0.965 | ×0.992 | 21.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.15% | ÷1.018 | ×0.830 | ×0.965 | ×0.992 | 8.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.965 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.15% | ÷1.037 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 4.12% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 93, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 102, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.
Result: wOBA .347 → .268; ISO .184 → .129; BABIP .359 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 165 PAwOBA .342 → .266 (−76)K% 25.5% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.45% | ÷0.982 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.058 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 13.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.61% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.10% | ÷1.087 | ×0.930 | ×0.965 | ×1.003 | 10.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷0.964 | ×0.830 | ×0.965 | ×1.003 | 7.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.19% | ÷0.942 | ×0.970 | ×0.965 | ×1.003 | 1.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.95% | ÷1.013 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 4.13% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 117, 2B 93, 3B 88, K 96, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.
Result: wOBA .342 → .266; ISO .198 → .164; BABIP .238 → .197. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAACharlotte Knights · 38 PAwOBA .259 → .166 (−93)K% 34.2% → 40.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.21% | ÷1.011 | ×1.200 | — | — | 40.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.89% | ÷1.053 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.986 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 8.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.128 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 13.64% | ÷1.190 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 8.17% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 97, 2B 126, 3B 104, K 102, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .259 → .166; ISO .257 → .144; BABIP .105 → .095. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAACharlotte Knights · 367 PAwOBA .409 → .326 (−82)K% 26.7% → 33.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.70% | ÷0.962 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.62% | ÷1.077 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 11.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.82% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.45% | ÷1.061 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | 19.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.69% | ÷0.921 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | 8.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.51% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | 0.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.69% | ÷1.212 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 7.04% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 112, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 92, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .409 → .326; ISO .265 → .211; BABIP .346 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AABirmingham Barons · 531 PAwOBA .351 → .291 (−59)K% 29.8% → 36.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.76% | ÷1.006 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.64% | ÷0.954 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 13.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.31% | ÷1.069 | ×0.920 | ×0.964 | ×1.027 | 19.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.23% | ÷0.969 | ×0.910 | ×0.964 | ×1.027 | 8.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.38% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.964 | ×1.027 | 0.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.77% | ÷0.949 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 5.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 114, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 101, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .351 → .291; ISO .170 → .153; BABIP .329 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 426 PAwOBA .349 → .245 (−104)K% 27.7% → 40.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.70% | ÷0.966 | ×1.420 | — | — | 40.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.37% | ÷1.046 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.012 | 10.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.47% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 0.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.04% | ÷0.999 | ×0.940 | ×0.982 | ×1.012 | 15.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.07% | ÷1.080 | ×0.830 | ×0.982 | ×1.012 | 6.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.35% | ÷0.902 | ×0.800 | ×0.982 | ×1.012 | 1.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.62% | ÷1.275 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.012 | 5.44% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 155, 1B 100, 2B 116, 3B 80, K 93, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .349 → .245; ISO .220 → .150; BABIP .282 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AABirmingham Barons · 45 PAwOBA .391 → .333 (−58)K% 24.4% → 30.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.44% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 24.44% | ÷1.001 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 17.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.39% | ÷1.009 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 16.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷1.021 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.042 | 8.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.086 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.70% | ÷0.894 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 8.11% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 117, K 96, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .391 → .333; ISO .235 → .224; BABIP .286 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 153 PAwOBA .388 → .285 (−103)K% 25.5% → 38.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.49% | ÷0.938 | ×1.420 | — | — | 38.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 21.57% | ÷0.996 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.027 | 14.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷0.994 | ×0.940 | ×0.955 | ×1.027 | 20.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.64% | ÷0.970 | ×0.830 | ×0.955 | ×1.027 | 7.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.013 | ×0.800 | ×0.955 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.098 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.027 | 6.24% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 99, 2B 94, 3B 103, K 88, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .388 → .285; ISO .208 → .157; BABIP .333 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).