Tyler Bremner

P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.0 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP45OGV rank#57ETA2028MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	19	19	73	4.33	2.89	32.9%	8.9%	—	K 25.8% · BB 10.1% · FIP 3.98
2027PROJ	23	MLBLAA	1	1	4	3.97	3.97	25.7%	7.9%	0.1
2028PROJ45% MLB	24	MLBLAA	9	9	50	3.94	3.88	26.6%	7.6%	0.9
2029PROJ68% MLB	25	MLBLAA	14	14	80	3.88	3.82	27.0%	7.5%	1.5

Next 3 projected WAR 2.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$4M2033Ext$6M2034Ext$7M

Career WAR0.2 WAR median (P10 -1.0 / P90 22, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 71%

CompsJaden Hamm (age 21) · Kyle Brnovich (age 23) · Braxton Bragg (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109101vR 92

ERA3.97

FIP3.97

K%25.7%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%17.8%

Proj IP95

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$60M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$10M	+$10M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.0	$13M	+$12M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.0	$12M	+$11M
2032	Arb-1	$4M	+1.9	$10M	+$8M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$7M		$45M	+$41M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	73	304	100	27	8	100%	3.8	25.8%	10.1%	15.7%	3.2%	4.33	3.98	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	73	304	100	27	8	100%	3.8	25.8%	10.1%	15.7%	3.2%	4.33	3.98	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	73	304	100	27	8	100%	3.8	32.9%	8.9%	24.0%	2.6%	4.33	2.89	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	LAA	1	1	4	17	4	1	1	100%	4.0	25.7%	7.9%	17.8%	3.0%	3.97	3.97	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAA	20	20	110	465	124	35	14	100%	5.5	26.6%	7.6%	19.0%	3.0%	3.91	3.85	+2.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAA	20	20	119	502	136	38	15	100%	6.0	27.0%	7.5%	19.5%	3.0%	3.85	3.79	+2.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAA	21	21	127	535	145	40	16	100%	6.0	27.1%	7.5%	19.7%	3.0%	3.81	3.77	+2.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAA	21	21	124	523	141	39	16	100%	5.9	27.0%	7.5%	19.4%	3.0%	3.82	3.82	+2.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAA	20	20	119	503	135	39	16	100%	6.0	26.9%	7.7%	19.2%	3.1%	3.87	3.91	+2.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	112	473	126	38	16	100%	5.9	26.6%	7.9%	18.7%	3.3%	3.97	4.04	+1.8
2034	30	MLB MLE	LAA	17	17	103	433	114	36	15	100%	6.0	26.3%	8.2%	18.0%	3.5%	4.12	4.22	+1.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	LAA	15	15	92	389	101	33	14	100%	6.1	25.9%	8.6%	17.3%	3.7%	4.30	4.42	+1.1
2036	32	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	81	342	87	31	14	100%	6.2	25.4%	9.0%	16.4%	4.0%	4.51	4.64	+0.7
2037	33	MLB MLE	LAA	12	12	70	294	73	28	12	100%	5.8	24.9%	9.4%	15.5%	4.2%	4.74	4.89	+0.4
2038	34	MLB MLE	LAA	10	10	59	250	61	25	11	100%	5.9	24.4%	9.9%	14.4%	4.5%	5.00	5.17	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	50	211	56	16	6	100%	5.6	26.6%	7.6%	19.0%	3.1%	3.94	3.88	+0.9
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	80	338	91	25	10	100%	5.7	27.0%	7.5%	19.5%	3.0%	3.88	3.82	+1.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAA	17	17	101	426	116	32	13	100%	5.9	27.1%	7.5%	19.7%	3.0%	3.84	3.80	+2.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAA	18	18	106	448	121	34	14	100%	5.9	27.0%	7.5%	19.4%	3.1%	3.85	3.85	+2.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAA	18	18	106	448	120	34	14	100%	5.9	26.9%	7.7%	19.2%	3.2%	3.90	3.94	+1.9
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAA	17	17	102	431	115	34	14	100%	6.0	26.6%	7.9%	18.7%	3.3%	4.01	4.08	+1.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	LAA	16	16	95	401	105	33	14	100%	5.9	26.3%	8.2%	18.0%	3.6%	4.16	4.26	+1.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	86	363	94	31	14	100%	6.1	25.9%	8.6%	17.3%	3.8%	4.34	4.46	+1.0
2036	32	MLB CTX	LAA	13	13	76	321	82	29	13	100%	5.8	25.4%	9.0%	16.4%	4.0%	4.55	4.68	+0.7
2037	33	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	66	279	69	26	12	100%	6.0	24.9%	9.4%	15.5%	4.3%	4.79	4.94	+0.4
2038	34	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	54	228	56	23	11	100%	6.0	24.4%	9.9%	14.4%	4.6%	5.05	5.22	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		155	155	922	3893	1025	318	136	100%	5.9	26.3%	8.2%	18.2%	3.5%	4.15	3.82	+17.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	222	69	29	100%	6.0	26.3%	8.2%	18.2%	3.5%	4.15	3.82	+3.8
Career	—	MLE		19	19	73	304	78	31	10	100%	3.8	25.8%	10.1%	15.7%	3.2%	4.33	3.98	+16.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	52	200	837	216	84	27	100%	3.8	25.8%	10.1%	15.7%	3.2%	4.33	3.98	+3.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 48 IPFIP 2.98 → 4.10 (+1.12)K% 31.4% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.37%	—	×0.770	24.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.31%	—	×1.150	10.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.45%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.06%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.98 → 4.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 24 IPFIP 2.72 → 3.73 (+1.01)K% 36.0% → 29.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.00%	—	×0.810	29.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.100	8.80%
HR / BF /BF	3.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.60%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.72 → 3.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Bremner (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	3.80	26.9%	19.4%	356	-0.17	—	—	—
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	86
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	86
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	84
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	83
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	81
Mason Black R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP	4.23	25.2%	10.0%	3.6%	.284	5.09	18.0%	8.3%	333	+0.86	3.95	569	81
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	80
Griffin Canning R 2019 · 3.60 FIP	23	SP	3.60	25.0%	7.2%	3.1%	.277	4.71	22.9%	13.0%	119	+1.11	3.60	809	80
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	80
David Festa R 2023 · 3.68 FIP	23	SP	3.68	24.5%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.71	27.2%	19.1%	209	+0.03	3.67	405	79
Jared Karros R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	21.9%	9.2%	1.7%	.281	7.71	12.4%	2.7%	52	+4.35	3.36	191	79
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	78
Logan Workman R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.94	20.1%	12.8%	362	-0.39	3.82	579	78
German Nunez R 2024 · 3.00 FIP	22	SP	3.00	24.8%	6.8%	2.1%	.298	3.36	22.1%	11.2%	19	+0.36	2.27	151	78
Gavin Williams R 2022 · 3.44 FIP	23	SP	3.44	26.2%	9.9%	2.4%	.238	3.87	25.1%	14.3%	398	+0.43	3.39	697	78
Owen Wild R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	4.90	21.2%	12.1%	166	+1.23	3.67	287	78
Nick Sinacola R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.3%	7.6%	3.4%	.313	3.97	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.23	3.56	357	78
Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2021 · 3.87 FIP	23	SP	3.87	24.0%	7.6%	3.4%	.360	4.59	22.7%	15.9%	243	+0.72	3.87	512	78
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.75	21.2%	12.0%	217	+0.23	4.39	458	78
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.27	25.0%	14.6%	148	+0.06	2.00	352	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.1	101	26.3%	8.1%	1.29	4.08
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Drew Smyly ('24)	5.7	104	23.1%	7.7%	1.49	4.20
Pete Richert ('62-'74, 13 WAR*)	5.8	90	24.4%*	8.8%*	1.26*	4.04*
Bobby Bolin ('61-'73, 12 WAR*)	7.9	121	22.7%*	9.6%*	1.33*	4.11*
Joe Hesketh ('84-'94, 10 WAR*)	4.8	87	23.2%*	8.8%*	1.07*	3.95*