Tyler Bremner — OGILVIE

Tyler Bremner P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.3 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 27 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA3.95

FIP3.95

K%25.7%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%17.9%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$54M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF6065

CTRL5560

CMD5055

K†6065

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$3M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$12M	+$11M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.3	$15M	+$14M
2030	Arb-1	$8M	+2.5	$15M	+$9M
2031	Arb-2	$13M	+2.4	$13M	+$5M
2032	Arb-3	$18M	+2.2	$11M	+$2M
Totals		$42M		$69M	+$44M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	19	19	73	304	100	27	8	100%	3.8	25.8%	10.1%	15.7%	3.2%	4.33	3.98	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	19	19	73	304	100	27	8	100%	3.8	25.8%	10.1%	15.7%	3.2%	4.33	3.98	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	LAA	14	14	48	204	64	19	5	100%	3.4	31.4%	9.3%	22.1%	2.5%	4.28	2.98	—
2026	22	AA RAW	LAA	5	5	24	100	36	8	3	100%	4.9	36.0%	8.0%	28.0%	3.0%	4.44	2.72	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	LAA	25	25	138	582	156	43	17	100%	5.5	26.8%	7.5%	19.4%	3.0%	3.86	3.79	+1.8
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAA	30	30	167	706	194	51	21	100%	5.6	27.4%	7.3%	20.1%	2.9%	3.77	3.70	+2.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAA	32	32	185	781	216	56	23	100%	5.8	27.7%	7.2%	20.5%	2.9%	3.71	3.65	+2.8
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAA	31	31	185	781	217	56	23	100%	6.0	27.8%	7.1%	20.6%	2.9%	3.68	3.64	+2.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAA	30	30	180	760	211	55	23	100%	6.0	27.8%	7.2%	20.5%	3.0%	3.68	3.68	+2.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAA	29	29	175	737	204	54	23	100%	6.0	27.6%	7.4%	20.3%	3.1%	3.73	3.77	+2.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAA	28	28	167	704	193	53	23	100%	6.0	27.4%	7.6%	19.8%	3.2%	3.83	3.90	+2.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	LAA	26	26	157	662	179	52	23	100%	6.0	27.0%	7.9%	19.1%	3.4%	3.98	4.08	+1.5
2035	31	MLB MLE	LAA	24	24	146	617	164	51	23	100%	6.1	26.6%	8.2%	18.4%	3.6%	4.16	4.28	+1.1
2036	32	MLB MLE	LAA	23	23	135	570	149	49	22	100%	5.9	26.2%	8.6%	17.6%	3.9%	4.37	4.50	+0.6
2037	33	MLB MLE	LAA	21	21	124	524	135	48	22	100%	5.9	25.7%	9.1%	16.6%	4.2%	4.60	4.75	+0.2
2038	34	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	113	476	120	46	21	100%	5.9	25.1%	9.6%	15.6%	4.5%	4.86	5.03	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	68	287	77	21	9	100%	5.7	26.8%	7.5%	19.4%	3.0%	3.89	3.82	+0.9
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAA	21	21	117	494	135	36	15	100%	5.6	27.4%	7.3%	20.1%	3.0%	3.80	3.73	+1.7
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAA	26	26	150	633	175	45	19	100%	5.8	27.7%	7.2%	20.5%	3.0%	3.74	3.68	+2.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAA	27	27	162	684	190	49	20	100%	6.0	27.8%	7.1%	20.6%	3.0%	3.71	3.67	+2.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAA	27	27	163	688	191	50	21	100%	6.0	27.8%	7.2%	20.5%	3.0%	3.71	3.71	+2.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAA	27	27	161	680	188	50	21	100%	6.0	27.6%	7.4%	20.3%	3.1%	3.76	3.80	+2.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAA	26	26	155	654	179	50	22	100%	6.0	27.4%	7.6%	19.8%	3.3%	3.87	3.94	+1.8
2034	30	MLB CTX	LAA	24	24	147	621	168	49	22	100%	6.1	27.0%	7.9%	19.1%	3.5%	4.02	4.12	+1.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	LAA	23	23	139	587	156	48	22	100%	6.0	26.6%	8.2%	18.4%	3.7%	4.20	4.32	+1.0
2036	32	MLB CTX	LAA	21	21	128	540	142	47	21	100%	6.1	26.2%	8.6%	17.6%	4.0%	4.41	4.54	+0.6
2037	33	MLB CTX	LAA	20	20	118	498	128	45	21	100%	5.9	25.7%	9.1%	16.6%	4.3%	4.65	4.80	+0.2
2038	34	MLB CTX	LAA	17	17	102	431	108	41	20	100%	6.0	25.1%	9.6%	15.6%	4.6%	4.91	5.08	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		272	272	1609	6794	1837	531	232	100%	5.9	27.0%	7.8%	19.2%	3.4%	4.02	3.68	+23.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	228	66	29	100%	5.9	27.0%	7.8%	19.2%	3.4%	4.02	3.68	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		19	19	73	304	78	31	10	100%	3.8	25.8%	10.1%	15.7%	3.2%	4.33	3.98	+19.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	52	200	837	216	84	27	100%	3.8	25.8%	10.1%	15.7%	3.2%	4.33	3.98	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Bremner (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.95	25.7%	7.8%	3.0%	—	3.71	27.3%	20.1%	490	-0.24	—	—	—
Jimmy Joyce R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.03	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.25	3.39	259	87
Ricky DeVito R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.8%	3.2%	.309	4.65	21.5%	2.4%	151	+0.61	4.04	215	85
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	84
Kumar Rocker R 2023 · 2.86 FIP	23	SP	2.86	29.1%	7.3%	2.4%	.317	3.93	22.0%	13.5%	250	+1.07	1.93	278	82
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	81
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	79
Cole Henry R 2021 · 2.96 FIP	22	SP	2.96	29.8%	7.8%	2.5%	.233	4.99	21.8%	7.7%	56	+2.03	2.96	186	78
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.87	20.6%	11.1%	236	-0.46	3.17	515	77
Angel Jimenez R 2023 · 3.31 FIP	20	SP	3.31	23.3%	5.1%	2.8%	.368	4.43	21.1%	10.0%	144	+1.12	3.24	223	77
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	77
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.60	21.6%	13.8%	181	+0.38	3.22	270	77
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	76
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	76
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	76
David Sandlin R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	22	SP	4.05	24.8%	6.5%	4.0%	.360	4.39	21.4%	12.1%	253	+0.34	3.94	312	76
Eric Cerantola R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	23.8%	7.9%	5.1%	.392	4.01	24.3%	9.6%	198	-0.85	3.44	267	76
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	75
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	74
Chris Clark R 2023 · 3.29 FIP	21	SP	3.29	18.9%	6.9%	1.7%	.362	4.77	18.1%	7.5%	330	+1.48	3.29	349	74
Gavin Stone R 2021 · 3.15 FIP	22	SP	3.15	27.3%	7.8%	2.5%	.385	3.61	22.7%	14.3%	394	+0.46	2.39	485	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.5	146	27.0%	7.8%	1.28	3.97
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45