Tyler Bremner P Tri-City Dust Devils
Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110101vR 92
ERA3.98
FIP3.98
K%24.5%
BB%7.3%
K-BB%17.2%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 99 IP
K: +4.5 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+5KBB: +1.3 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)+1BBCONTACT: -3.9 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-4CONTACTSTAM: +13.2 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+13STAMTotal WAR: +1.60 (99 IP)+1.6WAR
0.00.51.00.00.1+$0M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP50
STUF6060
CTRL5560
CMD5055
K†6060
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2027
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2032
First FA Year   2033
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.4M+$0.0M (cut)
2028Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.4M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
▸ 2026 Season
202622A+Tri-City Dust Devils11113414548124100%3.125.5%9.5%16.0%3.4%4.244.05+0.2
ROS22MLBLAA12126527467208100%5.424.5%7.3%17.2%3.0%3.983.98+0.5
ROS22MLBLAA024.5%7.3%17.2%2.9%3.953.95
2026 TOT22MLBLAA99419115321227.5%7.6%19.8%2.9%4.074.00+1.6
2026 FULL22MLBLAA0100024.5%7.3%17.2%2.9%3.953.57+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202723MLBLAA25251385821504117100%5.525.8%7.0%18.8%3.0%3.893.82+2.5
202824MLBLAA30301677061864821100%5.626.4%6.9%19.6%2.9%3.803.73+3.3
202925MLBLAA31311817642045222100%5.826.7%6.8%20.0%2.9%3.743.68+3.6
203026MLBLAA30301807602045122100%6.026.8%6.7%20.1%2.9%3.713.67+3.6
203127MLBLAA30301777492015122100%5.926.8%6.8%20.0%3.0%3.713.71+3.5
203228MLBLAA29291727261945122100%5.926.7%7.0%19.7%3.1%3.763.80+3.2
203329MLBLAA27271646941835022100%6.126.4%7.2%19.2%3.2%3.863.93+2.8
203430MLBLAA26261546521704922100%5.926.1%7.5%18.6%3.4%4.014.10+2.3
203531MLBLAA24241446081564822100%6.025.7%7.8%17.8%3.6%4.194.31+1.8
203632MLBLAA22221335621424622100%6.125.2%8.2%17.0%3.9%4.404.53+1.4
203733MLBLAA20201225161284522100%6.124.7%8.7%16.0%4.2%4.634.78+0.9
203834MLBLAA19191114701144321100%5.924.2%9.2%15.0%4.5%4.895.06+0.4
203935MLBLAA1717100421994120100%5.923.6%9.8%13.8%4.8%5.175.36+0.0
202723MLBLAA12126828774208100%5.725.8%7.0%18.8%2.9%3.863.79+0.7
202824MLBLAA21211174941303414100%5.626.4%6.9%19.6%2.9%3.773.70+2.3
202925MLBLAA25251476211664218100%5.926.7%6.8%20.0%2.9%3.713.65+3.0
203026MLBLAA26261576631784519100%6.026.8%6.7%20.1%2.9%3.683.64+3.2
203127MLBLAA27271606761814620100%5.926.8%6.8%20.0%2.9%3.683.68+3.2
203228MLBLAA26261586671784620100%6.126.7%7.0%19.7%3.0%3.733.77+3.0
203329MLBLAA26261536461714720100%5.926.4%7.2%19.2%3.2%3.833.90+2.7
203430MLBLAA24241456121604621100%6.026.1%7.5%18.6%3.4%3.984.07+2.3
203531MLBLAA23231375781494521100%6.025.7%7.8%17.8%3.6%4.154.27+1.8
203632MLBLAA21211275361354421100%6.025.2%8.2%17.0%3.8%4.364.49+1.3
203733MLBLAA19191164901214320100%6.124.7%8.7%16.0%4.1%4.594.74+0.9
203834MLBLAA17171014261033919100%5.924.2%9.2%15.0%4.4%4.855.02+0.5
203935MLBLAA141486363863517100%6.123.6%9.8%13.8%4.7%5.125.31-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career282282167270571830532237100%5.925.9%7.5%18.4%3.4%4.043.71+33.0
/ 200 IP34342008442196428100%5.925.9%7.5%18.4%3.4%4.043.71+4.0
Career11113414537145100%3.125.5%9.5%16.0%3.4%4.244.05+0.2
/ 200 IP65652008532178129100%3.125.5%9.5%16.0%3.4%4.244.05+3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Tyler Bremner (OGILVIE) 3.98 24.5%7.3%3.0% 3.74 26.3%19.5%486 -0.24
Brendan Beck R 2028 · 3.18 FIP 24 SP 3.18 22.5%6.7%2.1%.289 3.78 20.9%13.1%225 +0.60 3.18 256 83
Cody Laweryson R 2027 · 4.23 FIP 23 SP 4.23 21.7%8.4%3.5%.329 3.55 21.5%12.4%178 -0.68 2.49 298 80
Kyle Brnovich R 2027 · 3.69 FIP 23 SP 3.69 25.1%7.5%3.2%.256 5.06 20.7%11.0%89 +1.37 3.69 333 78
Braxton Bragg R 2027 · 3.78 FIP 23 SP 3.78 22.3%6.4%3.2%.325 2.47 26.2%18.1%59 -1.31 2.47 155 78
Gavin Stone R 2026 · 3.22 FIP 22 SP 3.22 27.3%7.8%2.6%.385 3.71 23.0%14.2%394 +0.49 2.39 485 78
Michael Grove R 2026 · 4.46 FIP 22 SP 4.46 24.3%9.5%4.0%.409 5.62 21.8%11.5%176 +1.16 3.54 377 78
Garrett Burhenn R 2026 · 4.19 FIP 22 SP 4.19 21.1%7.7%3.5%.333 4.44 16.9%8.8%341 +0.25 4.19 433 77
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2026 · 4.04 FIP 22 SP 4.04 23.1%10.8%2.8%.311 3.85 20.9%11.1%236 -0.19 3.12 482 77
Eric Cerantola R 2026 · 4.56 FIP 22 SP 4.56 23.8%7.9%4.5%.392 4.05 24.8%9.6%198 -0.51 3.53 281 77
Ryan Garcia R 2028 · 3.87 FIP 24 SP 3.87 23.2%10.7%2.5%.239 5.71 20.0%6.1%278 +1.84 3.87 325 77
Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.07 FIP 22 SP 4.07 22.2%10.6%2.8%.292 5.42 19.5%6.0%244 +1.35 4.07 378 76
Nate Dohm R 2026 · 4.86 FIP 22 SP 4.86 21.1%11.5%3.8%.309 4.59 17.7%2.6%40 -0.27 4.59 115 76
Caleb Sampen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP 22 SP 3.46 21.7%8.3%2.1%.358 3.46 15.2%6.8%139 +0.00 3.03 213 76
Dylan DeLucia R 2027 · 3.65 FIP 23 SP 3.65 21.6%7.4%2.6%.241 5.26 18.3%7.9%176 +1.61 3.65 211 76
Cody Morris R 2026 · 4.00 FIP 22 SP 4.00 21.6%8.1%3.1%.362 2.86 31.1%20.9%96 -1.14 2.26 256 75
Austin Gordon R 2026 · 4.70 FIP 22 SP 4.70 19.5%8.3%4.0%.315 5.46 17.4%7.9%75 +0.76 4.70 159 75
Mike Vasil R 2026 · 3.71 FIP 22 SP 3.71 21.9%10.5%2.0%.264 4.60 19.1%9.4%359 +0.89 3.71 429 75
Jared Karros R 2026 · 4.72 FIP 22 SP 4.72 19.0%8.9%3.8%.290 5.32 17.8%8.3%120 +0.60 3.31 191 75
Ethan Pecko R 2026 · 3.32 FIP 22 SP 3.32 24.4%9.0%2.1%.330 4.32 18.1%8.7%56 +1.00 3.32 242 75
Brandon Young R 2026 · 4.07 FIP 22 SP 4.07 24.5%12.3%2.7%.297 3.46 22.4%14.1%150 -0.61 3.11 420 75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION1414425.9%7.5%1.314.05
Jon Gray ('24)1012223.4%7.8%1.154.45
Lance Lynn ('24)915423.9%8.1%1.203.86
Rich Hill ('23)910425.0%8.0%1.123.65
Joe Musgrove ('24)911723.9%6.0%1.133.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)812225.9%6.9%1.304.17
Kyle Gibson ('24)1016419.6%8.3%1.144.46