Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 5.0 | 21.1% | 5.3% | 15.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.99 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 5.0 | 21.1% | 5.3% | 15.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.10 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 15 | 14 | 59 | 259 | 73 | 19 | 6 | 93% | 3.9 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 13.3% | 3.4% | 4.91 | 4.23 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 15 | 14 | 59 | 259 | 73 | 19 | 6 | 93% | 3.9 | 28.2% | 7.3% | 20.8% | 2.3% | 4.91 | 2.91 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 10 | 95 | 368 | 111 | 27 | 2 | 29% | 2.7 | 24.0% | 8.2% | 15.7% | 0.7% | 1.62 | 2.49 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 10 | 95 | 368 | 111 | 27 | 2 | 29% | 2.7 | 30.2% | 7.3% | 22.8% | 0.5% | 1.62 | 1.89 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 32 | 4 | 51 | 232 | 51 | 25 | 11 | 12% | 1.6 | 19.3% | 11.3% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 4.80 | 5.71 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 32 | 4 | 51 | 232 | 51 | 25 | 11 | 12% | 1.6 | 22.0% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 4.7% | 4.80 | 5.39 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 27 | 0 | 33 | 152 | 33 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.6% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 1.1% | 6.82 | 3.25 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 27 | 0 | 33 | 152 | 33 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.7% | 7.2% | 14.5% | 0.7% | 6.82 | 2.49 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 39 | 0 | 52 | 209 | 52 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.9% | 8.1% | 12.7% | 0.8% | 2.61 | 2.81 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 39 | 0 | 52 | 209 | 52 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.9% | 6.7% | 18.2% | 1.0% | 2.61 | 2.40 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 22 | 0 | 24 | 114 | 26 | 11 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 3.8% | 5.92 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | MIN | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 3.88 | 3.88 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | MIN | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 2.7% | 3.88 | 3.88 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 47 | 211 | 47 | 20 | 8 | — | — | 22.2% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 3.6% | 4.93 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 40 | 167 | 47 | 20 | 8 | — | — | 28.0% | 11.7% | 16.4% | 4.6% | 5.88 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 54 | 0 | 56 | 237 | 51 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 50 | 0 | 53 | 223 | 47 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 47 | 0 | 49 | 208 | 43 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 48 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 45 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 42 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 185 | 0 | 198 | 835 | 180 | 76 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 9.1% | 12.5% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.10 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 187 | 0 | 200 | 846 | 182 | 77 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 9.1% | 12.5% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.10 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 171 | 29 | 318 | 1353 | 290 | 120 | 31 | 17% | 1.9 | 21.4% | 8.9% | 12.5% | 2.3% | 3.74 | 3.68 | +6.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 108 | 18 | 200 | 851 | 182 | 76 | 20 | 17% | 1.9 | 21.4% | 8.9% | 12.5% | 2.3% | 3.74 | 3.68 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cody Laweryson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.18 | 21.0% | 8.5% | 2.6% | — | 4.59 | 21.2% | 11.8% | 158 | +0.41 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 83 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 80 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 80 |
| Rob Scahill R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.34 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.49 | 2.93 | 201 | 79 |
| Nick Merkel R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.85 | 17.9% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 201 | 79 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.55 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | -0.03 | 3.15 | 272 | 78 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.72 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 125 | 78 |
| Mark Serrano R 2028 · 3.03 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.03 | 17.7% | 6.5% | 1.1% | .290 | 4.44 | 21.1% | 14.0% | 88 | +1.41 | 3.03 | 120 | 77 |
| David Hernandez R 2028 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 77 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .327 | 4.77 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.31 | 2.32 | 676 | 77 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.34 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 1.6% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 166 | 77 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .359 | 5.26 | 12.8% | 2.8% | 47 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 108 | 76 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 76 |
| Tanner Kohlhepp R 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.74 | 23.4% | 7.6% | 3.0% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 150 | 76 |
| Chris Martin R 2027 · 3.28 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.28 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .319 | 3.06 | 20.9% | 19.2% | 42 | -0.22 | 1.76 | 416 | 75 |
| Francisco Mendoza R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.11 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 2.8% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 120 | 75 |
| A.J. Schugel R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.18 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .307 | 6.22 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 13 | +2.04 | 2.75 | 299 | 75 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 75 |
| Ryan Tepera R 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.04 | 22.6% | 8.9% | 1.3% | .266 | 3.81 | 24.3% | 15.9% | 164 | +0.77 | 2.33 | 445 | 75 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 1.16 | 4.43 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |