Nick Sinacola — OGILVIE

Nick Sinacola P Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.9 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%15.9%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%4.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Black	5	0	6	23	11	0	0	0%	1.3	47.8%	0.0%	47.8%	0.0%	0.00	-0.94	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Black	5	0	6	23	11	0	0	0%	1.3	47.8%	0.0%	47.8%	0.0%	0.00	-0.37	—
2022	22	A MLE	San Jose Giants	25	18	103	444	116	39	11	72%	4.1	19.3%	10.4%	9.0%	3.0%	3.86	4.44	—
2022	22	A RAW	San Jose Giants	25	18	103	444	116	39	11	72%	4.1	26.1%	8.8%	17.3%	2.5%	3.86	3.37	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	23	20	88	379	100	25	11	87%	3.8	20.3%	7.6%	12.7%	3.4%	4.58	4.20	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	23	20	88	379	100	25	11	87%	3.8	20.3%	7.6%	12.7%	3.4%	4.58	4.20	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Eugene Emeralds	23	20	88	379	100	25	11	87%	3.8	26.4%	6.6%	19.8%	2.9%	4.58	3.30	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	17	109	436	97	25	12	68%	4.3	17.7%	6.4%	11.3%	3.2%	3.56	4.18	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	17	109	436	97	25	12	68%	4.3	17.7%	6.4%	11.3%	3.2%	3.56	4.18	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	17	109	436	97	25	12	68%	4.3	22.2%	5.7%	16.5%	2.8%	3.56	3.44	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	21	3	57	242	47	27	1	14%	2.7	15.7%	12.3%	3.5%	0.4%	3.30	3.56	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	21	3	57	242	47	27	1	14%	2.7	15.7%	12.3%	3.5%	0.4%	3.30	3.56	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	21	3	57	242	47	27	1	14%	2.7	19.4%	11.2%	8.3%	0.4%	3.30	3.10	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	SF	1	1	6	25	4	3	1	100%	6.0	15.9%	11.0%	4.9%	2.5%	4.93	4.93	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	SF	14	14	96	407	67	44	11	100%	6.9	16.5%	10.8%	5.7%	2.6%	4.89	4.90	0.0
2028	28	MLB MLE	SF	14	14	93	394	66	42	11	100%	6.7	16.8%	10.7%	6.1%	2.8%	4.90	4.94	-0.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	SF	13	13	89	377	63	41	11	100%	6.9	16.8%	10.8%	6.1%	2.9%	4.96	5.03	-0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	SF	12	12	84	354	59	39	11	100%	7.0	16.6%	11.0%	5.6%	3.1%	5.09	5.19	-0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	SF	5	5	36	152	25	16	4	100%	7.2	16.5%	10.8%	5.7%	2.4%	4.78	4.79	0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	56	236	40	25	6	100%	7.0	16.8%	10.7%	6.1%	2.6%	4.79	4.83	-0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	SF	9	9	63	266	45	29	7	100%	7.0	16.8%	10.8%	6.1%	2.7%	4.84	4.91	-0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	SF	10	10	66	279	46	31	8	100%	6.6	16.6%	11.0%	5.6%	2.9%	4.96	5.06	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		33	33	221	931	156	101	25	100%	6.7	16.7%	10.8%	5.9%	2.7%	4.85	4.53	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	141	92	23	100%	6.7	16.7%	10.8%	5.9%	2.7%	4.85	4.53	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		99	58	363	1524	289	132	41	59%	3.7	19.0%	8.7%	10.3%	2.7%	3.79	4.08	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	32	200	839	159	73	23	59%	3.7	19.0%	8.7%	10.3%	2.7%	3.79	4.08	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Sinacola (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	15.9%	11.0%	2.5%	—	4.95	16.7%	6.0%	279	+0.02	—	—	—
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	87
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	85
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	84
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	84
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	84
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.85	13.9%	4.7%	81	+1.14	4.43	239	83
André Rienzo R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	27	SW	4.22	15.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.264	4.02	19.8%	5.1%	74	-0.20	3.53	200	83
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	83
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	83
Bryce Conley R 2021 · 4.31 FIP	26	SW	4.31	17.9%	12.2%	2.2%	.285	4.22	16.4%	5.3%	48	-0.09	4.22	560	82
Phil Klein R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	26	SW	3.86	18.1%	11.0%	1.6%	.280	3.10	24.5%	17.9%	97	-0.76	3.10	178	81
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	81
Alex Sanabia R 2015 · 4.44 FIP	26	SP-	4.44	11.4%	7.9%	2.4%	.358	3.66	11.1%	6.2%	161	-0.78	3.42	378	81
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	81
Stolmy Pimentel R 2016 · 3.87 FIP	26	SP-	3.87	13.6%	10.5%	1.1%	.379	—	—	—	—	—	3.87	143	81
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	81
Kanekoa Texeira R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	29	SP-	4.13	14.5%	11.2%	1.5%	.280	4.10	10.2%	-0.2%	63	-0.03	4.10	165	81
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	80
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	80
Jake Dunning R 2015 · 5.60 FIP	26	SP-	5.60	13.4%	9.6%	4.4%	.354	4.29	14.1%	2.8%	74	-1.31	4.19	120	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	87	16.6%	10.8%	1.09	4.95
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09