Nick Sinacola

P Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	A+SF	23	20	88	4.58	3.30	26.4%	6.6%	—	K 20.3% · BB 7.6% · FIP 4.20
2024	24	MIX2 levels	25	17	109	3.56	3.44	22.2%	5.7%	—	K 17.7% · BB 6.4% · FIP 4.18
2025	25	AASF	21	3	57	3.30	3.10	19.4%	11.2%	—	K 15.7% · BB 12.3% · FIP 3.56
2026	26	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	27	MLBSF	1	1	1	5.11	5.11	15.9%	11.8%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBSF	3	3	20	5.09	5.12	16.5%	11.7%	0.1
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBSF	4	4	26	5.13	5.19	16.8%	11.8%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control40Command35

CompsBryce Morrow (age 27) · Nolan Sanburn (age 26) · Edgar Alberto Garcia (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.11

FIP5.11

K%15.9%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%4.0%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Black	5	0	6	23	11	0	0	0%	1.3	47.8%	0.0%	47.8%	0.0%	0.00	-0.94	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Black	5	0	6	23	11	0	0	0%	1.3	47.8%	0.0%	47.8%	0.0%	0.00	-0.37	—
2022	22	A MLE	San Jose Giants	25	18	103	444	116	39	11	72%	4.1	19.3%	10.4%	9.0%	3.0%	3.86	4.44	—
2022	22	A RAW	San Jose Giants	25	18	103	444	116	39	11	72%	4.1	26.1%	8.8%	17.3%	2.5%	3.86	3.37	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	23	20	88	379	100	25	11	87%	3.8	20.3%	7.6%	12.7%	3.4%	4.58	4.20	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Eugene Emeralds	23	20	88	379	100	25	11	87%	3.8	26.4%	6.6%	19.8%	2.9%	4.58	3.30	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	17	109	436	97	25	12	68%	4.3	17.7%	6.4%	11.3%	3.2%	3.56	4.18	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	17	109	436	97	25	12	68%	4.3	17.7%	6.4%	11.3%	3.2%	3.56	4.18	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	17	109	436	97	25	12	68%	4.3	22.2%	5.7%	16.5%	2.8%	3.56	3.44	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	21	3	57	242	47	27	1	14%	2.7	15.7%	12.3%	3.5%	0.4%	3.30	3.56	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	21	3	57	242	47	27	1	14%	2.7	15.7%	12.3%	3.5%	0.4%	3.30	3.56	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	21	3	57	242	47	27	1	14%	2.7	19.4%	11.2%	8.3%	0.4%	3.30	3.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	SF	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	15.9%	11.8%	4.0%	2.7%	5.11	5.11	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	SF	9	9	54	229	38	27	6	100%	6.0	16.5%	11.7%	4.8%	2.8%	5.09	5.12	+0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	SF	7	7	46	196	33	23	6	100%	6.6	16.8%	11.8%	5.0%	3.0%	5.13	5.19	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	SF	3	3	20	84	14	10	2	100%	6.7	16.5%	11.7%	4.8%	2.8%	5.09	5.12	+0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	SF	4	4	26	110	18	13	3	100%	6.5	16.8%	11.8%	5.0%	3.0%	5.13	5.19	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	7	46	195	33	23	6	100%	6.6	16.6%	11.7%	4.9%	2.9%	5.11	4.78	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	143	99	26	100%	6.3	16.6%	11.7%	4.9%	2.9%	5.11	4.78	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		99	58	363	1524	289	132	41	59%	3.7	19.0%	8.7%	10.3%	2.7%	3.79	4.08	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	32	200	839	159	73	23	59%	3.7	19.0%	8.7%	10.3%	2.7%	3.79	4.08	+0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 57 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.56 (+0.46)K% 19.4% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.42%	—	×0.810	15.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.16%	—	×1.100	12.27%
HR / BF /BF	0.41%	÷1.183	×1.200	0.42%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 68 IPFIP 3.70 → 4.32 (+0.62)K% 20.9% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.92%	—	×0.810	16.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.38%	—	×1.100	7.02%
HR / BF /BF	2.84%	÷1.062	×1.200	3.21%

Result: FIP 3.70 → 4.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Eugene Emeralds · 40 IPFIP 3.02 → 3.92 (+0.91)K% 24.7% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.68%	—	×0.770	19.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.55%	—	×1.150	5.23%
HR / BF /BF	2.60%	÷1.010	×1.250	3.22%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 3.02 → 3.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Eugene Emeralds · 88 IPFIP 3.30 → 4.20 (+0.89)K% 26.4% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.39%	—	×0.770	20.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.60%	—	×1.150	7.59%
HR / BF /BF	2.90%	÷1.076	×1.250	3.37%

Result: FIP 3.30 → 4.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ASan Jose Giants · 103 IPFIP 3.37 → 4.44 (+1.08)K% 26.1% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.13%	—	×0.740	19.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.78%	—	×1.180	10.36%
HR / BF /BF	2.48%	÷1.063	×1.300	3.03%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 113).

Result: FIP 3.37 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Giants Black · 6 IPFIP -0.94 → 0.35 (+1.29)K% 47.8% → 32.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	47.83%	—	×0.680	32.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.222	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 144).

Result: FIP -0.94 → 0.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Sinacola (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	15.9%	11.8%	2.7%	—	5.15	16.6%	4.9%	101	+0.04	—	—	—
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	84
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	83
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	80
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	79
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	79
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	79
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	79
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	79
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	78
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	78
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	77
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	77
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	76
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	76
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	76
Mike McCarthy R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	27	SP-	4.78	9.4%	9.1%	2.4%	.280	5.03	6.2%	-3.5%	37	+0.25	4.78	153	76
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	76
Noah Skirrow R 2024 · 4.77 FIP	26	SP-	4.77	11.7%	11.7%	2.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	371	76
Matthew Shepherd R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	13.7%	9.5%	3.3%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	116	76
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	16.3%	11.8%	1.09	5.11
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*