Corbin Burnes — OGILVIE

Corbin Burnes P Arizona Diamondbacks

+0.5 WAR

INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 245 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.2 · 2027

ERA3.63

FIP4.00

xFIP3.73

SIERA4.05

K%23.7%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%15.9%

IP108

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.2peak

2027

K†6060

FB Velo

p6595.6

Whiff%

p5325.7%

p5923.8%

xwOBA vs

p560.306

CH+1.4 (7%)

FB+1.0 (10%)

CT (55%)

SI (10%)

CU (19%)

SL-0.5 (9%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2016	21	A	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	12	6	36	146	41	18	1	19.1%	15.7%	0.9%	2.02	3.98	+0.4
2017	22	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	26	26	146	560	140	36	3	19.9%	7.2%	0.5%	1.67	2.63	+4.4
2018	23	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	49	13	117	495	116	40	11	21.5%	8.4%	2.2%	4.32	3.54	+2.3
2019	24	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	40	11	71	339	95	29	19	27.1%	8.7%	5.6%	8.71	4.98	+0.1
2020	25	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	12	9	60	240	88	24	2	36.7%	10.0%	0.8%	2.11	1.72	+2.2
2021	26	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	28	28	167	657	234	34	7	35.6%	5.2%	1.1%	2.43	1.33	+7.5
2022	27	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	33	33	202	797	243	51	23	30.5%	6.4%	2.6%	2.94	2.75	+5.8
2023	28	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	32	32	194	784	200	66	22	25.5%	8.4%	2.7%	3.39	3.50	+4.0
2024	29	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	32	32	194	784	181	48	22	23.1%	6.1%	2.7%	2.92	3.40	+4.2
2025	30	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	11	11	64	265	63	25	7	23.8%	9.4%	2.8%	2.66	3.81	+0.9
▸ 2026 Season
2026	31	MLB	MIL	30	—	30	128	32	10	4	24.9%	7.8%	2.8%	3.54	3.89	+0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	32	MLB	MIL	16	16	90	379	92	30	11	24.3%	8.0%	2.9%	3.82	4.01	+1.2
2028	33	MLB	MIL	14	14	80	337	86	25	10	25.7%	7.3%	3.0%	3.85	3.87	+1.1
2029	34	MLB	MIL	13	13	70	297	74	22	9	25.0%	7.5%	3.1%	3.94	4.00	+0.8
2030	35	MLB	MIL	11	11	62	261	63	20	8	24.2%	7.8%	3.2%	4.07	4.16	+0.6
2031	36	MLB	MIL	54	—	54	227	53	18	7	23.4%	8.0%	3.3%	4.22	4.32	+0.4
2032	37	MLB	MIL	46	—	46	195	44	16	7	22.6%	8.3%	3.4%	4.38	4.49	+0.2
2033	38	MLB	MIL	40	—	40	167	36	14	6	21.8%	8.6%	3.6%	4.56	4.68	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			275	201	1250	5067	1346	382	113	26.6%	7.5%	2.2%	3.17	3.04	+32.1
/ 200 IP	—			44	32	200	811	215	61	18	26.6%	7.5%	2.2%	3.17	3.04	+5.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Corbin Burnes (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.89	24.9%	7.8%	2.8%	—	3.96	25.0%	17.3%	240	+0.07	—	—	—
David Robertson R 2026 · 3.30 FIP	31	SW	3.30	28.1%	10.5%	2.3%	.297	2.39	34.6%	26.8%	138	-0.91	2.00	494	48
Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP	31	SU	3.89	22.3%	8.6%	2.9%	.246	3.65	28.8%	20.4%	145	-0.24	1.69	468	48
Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	47
Joe Kelly R 2026 · 3.25 FIP	31	SW	3.25	27.4%	8.8%	2.5%	.312	2.66	29.2%	18.8%	81	-0.59	2.39	556	47
Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP	32	SW	3.33	23.7%	7.2%	2.4%	.342	4.98	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.65	3.33	122	47
Pedro Báez R 2026 · 3.10 FIP	31	SW	3.10	25.0%	8.0%	2.0%	.207	4.27	18.6%	8.6%	17	+1.17	2.29	332	46
Spencer Patton R 2028 · 3.03 FIP	33	SU	3.03	27.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.305	5.07	21.4%	9.7%	88	+2.04	2.83	239	46
Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.21 FIP	31	SW	3.21	25.2%	6.0%	2.7%	.286	3.66	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.45	2.80	284	46
Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.39 FIP	31	SW	3.39	25.5%	9.1%	2.4%	.254	3.70	22.8%	11.1%	129	+0.31	2.80	410	46
Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.35 FIP	31	SW	3.35	25.3%	9.3%	2.2%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.91	210	46
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.38 FIP	31	SW	3.38	26.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.241	3.98	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.60	3.38	212	46
Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP	31	SU	4.83	23.8%	9.4%	4.6%	.283	4.53	22.0%	13.8%	96	-0.30	2.93	176	46
Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.63 FIP	31	SU	3.63	21.9%	6.4%	2.9%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.62	3.10	120	46
Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	31	SW	3.48	23.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.57	2.00	380	46
Aaron Barrett R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	31	SW	3.85	23.0%	8.1%	3.1%	.246	4.56	19.9%	6.4%	38	+0.71	1.82	119	45
Tommy Nance R 2026 · 3.23 FIP	31	SU	3.23	29.1%	9.2%	2.6%	.345	2.77	23.7%	17.8%	118	-0.46	2.11	300	45
Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP	31	SU	4.63	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	45
Matt Bush R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	31	SW	3.65	24.2%	7.9%	2.9%	.321	4.65	17.6%	4.6%	23	+1.00	2.88	249	45
Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.00 FIP	31	SW	3.00	28.1%	6.1%	2.7%	.257	3.13	20.5%	15.1%	89	+0.13	2.73	316	45
Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	31	SW	3.85	25.1%	10.8%	2.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	102	45

Contract

CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 7.285 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$30M	+0.5	$2M	-$28M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$30M	+1.2	$10M	-$20M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$30M	+1.1	$9M	-$21M
2029	Ext / FA-deal	$30M	+0.8	$3M	-$27M
2030	Ext / FA-deal	$30M	+0.6	$3M	-$27M
2031	Ext / FA-deal	$30M	+0.4	$2M	-$28M
Totals		$180M		$29M	-$151M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$151M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.