Corbin Burnes — OGILVIE

Corbin Burnes P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 245 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.8 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION5 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 90

ERA3.73

FIP3.95

K%24.4%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%16.7%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$80M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF5555

CTRL6060

CMD6565

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6595.6

Whiff%

p5325.7%

p5923.8%

xwOBA vs

p560.306

CH+1.4 (7%)

FB+1.0 (10%)

CT (55%)

SI (10%)

CU (19%)

SL-0.5 (9%)

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 7.285 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$2M
2027	Ext	$30M	+0.8	$3M	-$24M
2028	Ext	$30M	+0.4	$1M	-$23M
2029	Ext	$30M	+0.3	$1.0M	-$21M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$92M		$5M	-$70M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$70M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	6	36	146	41	18	1	50%	3.0	19.1%	15.7%	3.4%	0.9%	2.02	3.99	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	6	36	146	41	18	1	50%	3.0	28.1%	12.3%	15.8%	0.7%	2.02	2.68	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	146	560	140	36	3	100%	5.6	19.9%	7.2%	12.6%	0.5%	1.67	2.63	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	146	560	140	36	3	100%	5.6	25.0%	6.4%	18.6%	0.5%	1.67	2.19	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	13	117	495	116	40	11	27%	2.4	21.5%	8.4%	13.1%	2.2%	4.32	3.53	+1.4
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	13	117	495	116	40	11	27%	2.4	23.4%	8.1%	15.4%	2.2%	4.32	3.37	+1.7
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	11	71	339	95	29	19	28%	1.8	27.1%	8.7%	18.5%	5.4%	8.71	4.89	-0.3
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	11	71	339	95	29	19	28%	1.8	28.0%	8.6%	19.5%	5.6%	8.71	5.12	-0.5
2020	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	12	9	60	240	88	24	2	75%	5.0	36.7%	10.0%	26.7%	0.8%	2.11	1.71	+2.5
2020	25	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	12	9	60	240	88	24	2	75%	5.0	36.7%	10.0%	26.7%	0.8%	2.11	1.79	+2.4
2021	26	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	28	28	167	657	234	34	7	100%	6.0	35.6%	5.2%	30.4%	1.0%	2.43	1.30	+8.2
2021	26	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	28	28	167	657	234	34	7	100%	6.0	35.6%	5.2%	30.4%	1.1%	2.43	1.45	+7.8
2022	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	33	33	202	797	243	51	23	100%	6.1	30.5%	6.4%	24.1%	2.7%	2.94	2.84	+5.3
2022	27	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	33	33	202	797	243	51	23	100%	6.1	30.5%	6.4%	24.1%	2.9%	2.94	2.93	+5.0
2023	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	32	32	194	784	200	66	22	100%	6.1	25.5%	8.4%	17.1%	2.7%	3.39	3.48	+3.4
2023	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	32	32	194	784	200	66	22	100%	6.1	25.5%	8.4%	17.1%	2.7%	3.39	3.48	+3.4
2023	28	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	32	32	194	784	200	66	22	100%	6.1	25.5%	8.4%	17.1%	2.8%	3.39	3.53	+3.2
2024	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	32	32	194	784	181	48	22	100%	6.1	23.1%	6.1%	17.0%	2.8%	2.92	3.48	+3.4
2024	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	32	32	194	784	181	48	22	100%	6.1	23.1%	6.1%	17.0%	2.8%	2.92	3.48	+3.4
2024	29	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	32	32	194	784	181	48	22	100%	6.1	23.1%	6.1%	17.0%	2.8%	2.92	3.45	+3.5
2025	30	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	11	11	64	265	63	25	7	100%	5.8	23.8%	9.4%	14.3%	2.8%	2.66	3.82	+0.8
2025	30	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	11	11	64	265	63	25	7	100%	5.8	23.8%	9.4%	14.3%	2.8%	2.66	3.82	+0.8
2025	30	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	11	11	64	265	63	25	7	100%	5.8	23.8%	9.4%	14.3%	2.6%	2.66	3.72	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			211	150	971	3927	1116	279	104	71%	4.6	28.4%	7.1%	21.3%	2.6%	3.14	3.06	+22.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	2	2	5	19	2	2	0	100%	2.5	—	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	2	2	5	19	2	2	0	100%	2.5	—	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	ARI	1	1	2	6	0	0	0	100%	2.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	ARI	1	1	3	13	2	2	0	100%	3.0	15.4%	15.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.75	—
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	ARI	1	1	3	13	2	2	0	100%	3.0	15.4%	15.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.75	—
ROS	31	MLB MLE	ARI	1	1	8	36	9	3	1	100%	8.5	24.4%	7.6%	16.7%	2.8%	3.73	3.95	+0.1
ROS	31	MLB CTX	ARI	1	1	8	34	8	3	1	100%	8.0	24.4%	7.6%	16.7%	2.7%	3.64	3.86	+0.1
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	13	55	11	5	1	—	—	19.6%	8.6%	10.9%	1.9%	2.35	2.48	+0.4
FULL	31	MLB A+C	ARI	—	—	11	48	11	5	1	—	—	22.1%	9.8%	12.4%	2.0%	2.69	3.56	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	93	393	93	32	12	100%	6.2	23.6%	8.0%	15.5%	3.1%	4.01	4.20	+0.8
2028	33	MLB MLE	ARI	14	14	85	360	82	31	12	100%	6.1	22.7%	8.5%	14.2%	3.4%	4.29	4.48	+0.4
2029	34	MLB MLE	ARI	13	13	78	328	78	27	12	100%	6.0	23.8%	8.2%	15.6%	3.7%	4.43	4.52	+0.3
2027	32	MLB CTX	ARI	15	15	93	393	93	32	11	100%	6.2	23.6%	8.0%	15.5%	2.9%	3.92	4.11	+0.8
2028	33	MLB CTX	ARI	14	14	85	359	82	30	11	100%	6.1	22.7%	8.5%	14.2%	3.2%	4.19	4.38	+0.4
2029	34	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	78	329	78	27	11	100%	6.0	23.8%	8.2%	15.6%	3.5%	4.32	4.41	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		255	194	1235	5043	1377	371	139	76%	4.8	27.3%	7.4%	20.0%	2.8%	3.35	3.24	+25.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	31	200	816	223	60	23	76%	4.8	27.3%	7.4%	20.0%	2.8%	3.35	3.24	+4.1
Career	—	MLE		277	203	1255	5086	1348	384	114	73%	4.5	26.5%	7.6%	19.0%	2.3%	3.15	3.05	+23.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	32	200	810	215	61	18	73%	4.5	26.5%	7.6%	19.0%	2.3%	3.15	3.05	+3.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Corbin Burnes (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.95	24.4%	7.6%	2.8%	—	4.39	23.4%	15.1%	256	+0.44	—	—	—
Brad Peacock R 2019 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	25.1%	8.1%	4.0%	.261	4.15	22.8%	12.5%	96	-0.07	2.97	533	62
Yu Darvish R 2018 · 4.50 FIP	31	SP	4.50	27.2%	11.7%	4.0%	.282	3.48	30.5%	24.0%	421	-1.02	1.97	1,253	59
Chase Anderson R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	31	SP	4.39	20.9%	8.1%	3.7%	.259	5.39	19.2%	10.0%	218	+1.00	3.30	1,146	58
Tom Koehler R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	31	SP-	4.66	22.4%	9.0%	4.2%	.298	—	—	—	—	—	4.38	474	56
Garrett Richards R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	30	SP	3.99	26.9%	10.5%	3.3%	.276	4.36	19.4%	10.3%	188	+0.37	2.31	577	54
Kyle Gibson R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	31	SP	3.97	22.7%	7.9%	3.2%	.325	3.91	20.2%	12.4%	417	-0.06	3.56	1,689	52
Félix Hernández R 2017 · 4.56 FIP	31	SP	4.56	22.0%	7.0%	4.4%	.278	5.08	18.0%	9.7%	227	+0.52	3.60	682	52
Matt Shoemaker R 2018 · 3.17 FIP	31	SP	3.17	25.4%	7.7%	2.3%	.310	4.87	19.3%	11.5%	188	+1.70	3.17	592	52
Rick Porcello R 2020 · 3.13 FIP	31	SP	3.13	20.7%	5.7%	1.9%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	1,023	52
Nate Karns R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	29	SP	4.46	27.1%	6.4%	5.2%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	287	52
Lance Lynn R 2018 · 3.51 FIP	31	SP	3.51	23.0%	10.4%	1.9%	.330	3.13	27.5%	20.7%	449	-0.38	2.85	1,390	51
Jeremy Hellickson R 2018 · 3.90 FIP	31	SP	3.90	17.6%	5.1%	3.0%	.244	4.93	17.8%	9.3%	56	+1.03	3.74	646	51
Masahiro Tanaka R 2020 · 4.08 FIP	31	SP	4.08	22.3%	4.1%	4.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	918	50
Phil Hughes R 2017 · 5.04 FIP	31	SP-	5.04	15.6%	4.5%	4.9%	.328	5.95	21.1%	15.2%	33	+0.91	4.62	301	49
Kenta Maeda R 2019 · 3.68 FIP	31	SP-	3.68	27.1%	8.0%	3.4%	.240	3.44	27.8%	22.0%	173	-0.24	2.87	1,092	49
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	48
Johnny Cueto R 2017 · 4.34 FIP	31	SP	4.34	21.0%	7.9%	3.7%	.314	4.70	19.1%	10.6%	132	+0.36	2.85	1,148	48
Dillon Gee R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	31	SP-	3.85	18.0%	5.9%	2.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	380	47
Tyson Ross R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	19.2%	9.1%	2.9%	.263	5.68	15.4%	4.3%	35	+1.46	2.76	449	45
Chris Bassitt R 2020 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP	3.53	21.1%	6.5%	2.5%	.273	3.54	23.2%	16.7%	539	+0.01	3.02	1,554	45

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	89	23.6%	8.1%	1.24	4.09
Félix Peña ('20)	1.2	62	23.6%	8.3%	1.37	4.46
Adbert Alzolay ('23)	1.1	70	26.1%	7.0%	1.32	3.84
Brad Peacock ('19)	1.6	80	28.7%	9.2%	1.18	3.48
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97