Corbin Burnes — OGILVIE

Corbin Burnes P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 245 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.4 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 108 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10696vR 87

ERA3.69

FIP3.88

K%24.4%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%16.7%

ROS IP108

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 108 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF5555

CTRL6060

CMD6565

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6595.6

Whiff%

p5325.7%

p5923.8%

xwOBA vs

p560.306

CH+1.4 (7%)

FB+1.0 (10%)

CT (55%)

SI (10%)

CU (19%)

SL-0.5 (9%)

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 7.285 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$12M	+0.2	$1.0M	-$11M
2027	Ext	$30M	+1.2	$9M	-$18M
2028	Ext	$30M	+0.6	$2M	-$22M
2029	Ext	$30M	+0.4	$1M	-$21M
2030	Ext	$30M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	$30M	—	—	—
Totals		$162M		$12M	-$110M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$110M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2016	21	MIX	2 levels	12	6	36	146	41	18	1	50%	3.0	19.1%	15.7%	3.4%	0.8%	2.02	3.93	—
2016	21	MIX	2 levels	12	6	36	146	41	18	1	50%	3.0	28.1%	12.3%	15.8%	0.7%	2.02	2.68	—
2017	22	MIX	2 levels	26	26	146	560	140	36	3	100%	5.6	19.9%	7.2%	12.6%	0.5%	1.67	2.60	—
2017	22	MIX	2 levels	26	26	146	560	140	36	3	100%	5.6	25.0%	6.4%	18.6%	0.5%	1.67	2.19	—
2018	23	MIX	2 levels	49	13	117	495	116	40	11	27%	2.4	21.5%	8.4%	13.1%	2.1%	4.32	3.50	+2.6
2018	23	MIX	2 levels	49	13	117	495	116	40	11	27%	2.4	23.4%	8.1%	15.4%	2.2%	4.32	3.37	+2.8
2019	24	MIX	2 levels	40	11	71	339	95	29	19	28%	1.8	27.1%	8.7%	18.5%	5.9%	8.71	5.15	-0.3
2019	24	MIX	2 levels	40	11	71	339	95	29	19	28%	1.8	28.0%	8.6%	19.5%	5.6%	8.71	5.12	-0.3
2020	25	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	12	9	60	240	88	24	2	75%	5.0	36.7%	10.0%	26.7%	0.9%	2.11	1.75	+2.0
2020	25	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	12	9	60	240	88	24	2	75%	5.0	36.7%	10.0%	26.7%	0.8%	2.11	1.79	+1.9
2021	26	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	28	28	167	657	234	34	7	100%	6.0	35.6%	5.2%	30.4%	1.1%	2.43	1.36	+7.9
2021	26	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	28	28	167	657	234	34	7	100%	6.0	35.6%	5.2%	30.4%	1.1%	2.43	1.45	+7.7
2022	27	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	33	33	202	797	243	51	23	100%	6.1	30.5%	6.4%	24.1%	3.0%	2.94	2.99	+5.7
2022	27	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	33	33	202	797	243	51	23	100%	6.1	30.5%	6.4%	24.1%	2.9%	2.94	2.93	+5.8
2023	28	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	32	32	194	784	200	66	22	100%	6.1	25.5%	8.4%	17.1%	2.9%	3.39	3.62	+4.0
2023	28	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	32	32	194	784	200	66	22	100%	6.1	25.5%	8.4%	17.1%	2.8%	3.39	3.53	+4.2
2024	29	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	32	32	194	784	181	48	22	100%	6.1	23.1%	6.1%	17.0%	2.6%	2.92	3.36	+4.6
2024	29	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	32	32	194	784	181	48	22	100%	6.1	23.1%	6.1%	17.0%	2.8%	2.92	3.45	+4.4
2025	30	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	11	11	64	265	63	25	7	100%	5.8	23.8%	9.4%	14.3%	2.5%	2.66	3.67	+0.7
2025	30	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	11	11	64	265	63	25	7	100%	5.8	23.8%	9.4%	14.3%	2.6%	2.66	3.72	+0.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	31	MLB	ARI	11	11	68	285	70	22	8	100%	6.1	24.4%	7.6%	16.7%	2.7%	3.69	3.88	+0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	32	MLB	ARI	15	15	93	393	93	32	12	100%	6.2	23.6%	8.0%	15.5%	3.0%	3.96	4.14	+1.2
2028	33	MLB	ARI	14	14	85	360	82	31	12	100%	6.1	22.7%	8.5%	14.2%	3.2%	4.24	4.42	+0.7
2029	34	MLB	ARI	13	13	78	328	78	27	12	100%	6.0	23.8%	8.2%	15.6%	3.5%	4.37	4.45	+0.4
2030	35	MLB	ARI	11	11	70	294	67	26	11	100%	6.3	22.9%	8.7%	14.1%	3.9%	4.62	4.79	-0.0
2031	36	MLB	ARI	10	10	62	260	57	24	11	100%	6.2	21.8%	9.3%	12.5%	4.3%	4.94	5.16	-0.4
2027	32	MLB	ARI	15	15	93	393	93	32	12	100%	6.2	23.6%	8.0%	15.5%	3.0%	4.00	4.18	+1.2
2028	33	MLB	ARI	14	14	85	359	82	30	12	100%	6.1	22.7%	8.5%	14.2%	3.3%	4.28	4.46	+0.6
2029	34	MLB	ARI	13	13	78	329	78	27	12	100%	6.0	23.8%	8.2%	15.6%	3.6%	4.41	4.49	+0.4
2030	35	MLB	ARI	11	11	70	296	68	26	12	100%	6.4	22.9%	8.7%	14.1%	4.0%	4.67	4.84	-0.1
2031	36	MLB	ARI	10	10	62	262	57	24	11	100%	6.2	21.8%	9.3%	12.5%	4.4%	4.99	5.21	-0.4
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			272	211	1355	5548	1490	416	163	78%	5.0	26.9%	7.5%	19.4%	2.9%	3.51	3.39	+31.8
/ 200 IP	—			40	31	200	819	220	61	24	78%	5.0	26.9%	7.5%	19.4%	2.9%	3.51	3.39	+4.7
Career	—			275	201	1250	5067	1346	382	118	73%	4.5	26.6%	7.5%	19.0%	2.3%	3.17	3.09	+33.8
/ 200 IP	—			44	32	200	811	215	61	19	73%	4.5	26.6%	7.5%	19.0%	2.3%	3.17	3.09	+5.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Corbin Burnes (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.88	24.4%	7.6%	2.7%	—	4.33	23.4%	15.1%	256	+0.45	—	—	—
Brad Peacock R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	31	SP-	4.04	25.1%	8.1%	3.7%	.261	4.12	22.8%	12.5%	96	+0.08	2.88	533	44
Ricky Nolasco R 2027 · 3.21 FIP	32	SP	3.21	20.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.382	4.52	17.9%	11.7%	379	+1.31	3.21	425	40
Elian Leyva R 2025 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	158	40
Yu Darvish R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	31	SP	4.36	27.2%	11.7%	3.8%	.282	3.50	30.5%	24.0%	421	-0.86	1.91	1,253	39
Jair Jurrjens R 2026 · 4.29 FIP	31	SP	4.29	16.3%	7.9%	2.8%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	125	39
Yohan Pino R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP-	3.95	17.8%	5.8%	2.9%	.312	5.48	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.53	3.95	133	38
Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.96 FIP	31	SP-	4.96	18.1%	7.8%	4.4%	.313	4.83	13.2%	5.6%	124	-0.13	4.83	294	38
Zack Segovia R 2027 · 5.00 FIP	32	SP	5.00	15.0%	8.3%	3.8%	.314	3.41	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.59	3.41	144	38
Jose Oyervides R 2028 · 2.98 FIP	33	SP	2.98	19.1%	6.2%	1.3%	.333	4.17	21.9%	14.5%	184	+1.19	2.98	407	38
Kevin Herget R 2026 · 3.66 FIP	31	SP-	3.66	21.5%	4.4%	3.3%	.332	3.83	21.3%	13.9%	179	+0.17	2.17	705	37
Mitch Lively R 2026 · 3.49 FIP	31	SP-	3.49	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	158	37
Bruce Billings R 2024 · 3.01 FIP	29	SP-	3.01	15.6%	5.6%	0.9%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	121	37
Garrett Richards R 2025 · 4.09 FIP	30	SP	4.09	26.9%	10.5%	3.5%	.276	4.36	19.4%	10.3%	188	+0.27	2.34	577	37
Jarrett Grube R 2028 · 3.49 FIP	33	SP	3.49	18.7%	4.2%	2.6%	.285	4.58	17.3%	9.6%	253	+1.09	3.49	393	37
Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 3.80 FIP	31	SP	3.80	20.2%	6.8%	2.8%	.309	4.37	22.0%	16.2%	300	+0.57	2.03	804	37
Tyler Herron R 2025 · 4.17 FIP	30	SP	4.17	16.4%	8.7%	2.5%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.17	117	36
Jose Samayoa R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	29	SP	4.65	19.4%	7.0%	4.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	262	36
Hector Ambriz R 2027 · 3.44 FIP	32	SP	3.44	16.0%	6.4%	1.6%	.273	6.28	10.4%	2.9%	91	+2.84	3.44	155	36
Chase Anderson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	31	SP	4.58	20.9%	8.1%	4.0%	.259	5.41	19.2%	10.0%	218	+0.83	3.42	1,146	36
Nate Karns R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	29	SP	4.43	27.1%	6.4%	5.1%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	287	36

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6	76	23.2%	8.4%	1.32	4.28
Austin Voth ('24)	6	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Noé Ramirez ('22)	5	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Shane Greene ('21)	7	56	21.4%	8.5%	1.16	4.67
Mike Mayers ('23)	5	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
David Hernandez ('19)	5	54	25.0%	7.9%	1.14	4.10
Matt Albers ('19)	5	49	20.3%	8.3%	1.37	4.21