Davis Martin
P
Chicago White Sox
Age 29
RHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.5 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION100 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10797vR 88
ERA3.46
FIP3.62
K%20.9%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%13.0%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 167 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4494.1
Whiff%
p5225.6%
K%
p5022.1%
xwOBA vs
p400.323
FB+3.4 (45%)
CH+1.6 (14%)
SL+0.5 (14%)
SI (18%)
CU (13%)
CT-2.5 (13%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Great Falls Voyagers | 9 | 2 | 21 | 92 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 22% | 2.3 | 16.3% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 1.5% | 4.29 | 3.59 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Great Falls Voyagers | 9 | 2 | 21 | 92 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 22% | 2.3 | 23.9% | 6.5% | 17.4% | 1.1% | 4.29 | 2.48 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Kannapolis Intimidators | 27 | 27 | 145 | 625 | 156 | 38 | 17 | 100% | 5.4 | 18.5% | 7.2% | 11.3% | 5.1% | 5.04 | 5.23 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Kannapolis Intimidators | 27 | 27 | 145 | 625 | 156 | 38 | 17 | 100% | 5.4 | 25.0% | 6.1% | 18.9% | 2.7% | 5.04 | 3.26 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 88 | 390 | 98 | 34 | 11 | 100% | 3.8 | 19.6% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 3.7% | 4.91 | 4.73 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 88 | 390 | 98 | 34 | 11 | 100% | 3.8 | 25.1% | 8.7% | 16.4% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 3.66 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 27 | 140 | 604 | 147 | 43 | 23 | 84% | 4.4 | 22.0% | 7.4% | 14.6% | 3.1% | 5.00 | 3.87 | +2.5 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 27 | 140 | 604 | 147 | 43 | 23 | 84% | 4.4 | 24.3% | 7.1% | 17.2% | 3.8% | 5.00 | 4.05 | +2.2 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 3 | 3 | 16 | 64 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 5.3 | 27.5% | 11.5% | 16.0% | 2.6% | 2.81 | 3.68 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 3 | 3 | 16 | 64 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 5.3 | 31.2% | 10.9% | 20.3% | 3.1% | 2.81 | 3.54 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 18 | 17 | 71 | 306 | 72 | 28 | 6 | 94% | 3.9 | 21.4% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 2.2% | 4.06 | 3.83 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 18 | 17 | 71 | 306 | 72 | 28 | 6 | 94% | 3.9 | 23.5% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 2.0% | 4.06 | 3.35 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 27 | 148 | 625 | 109 | 48 | 20 | 96% | 5.3 | 17.3% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.13 | 4.39 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 27 | 148 | 625 | 109 | 48 | 20 | 96% | 5.3 | 17.4% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.13 | 4.35 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 18 | 18 | 100 | 417 | 92 | 31 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.1% | 7.4% | 14.6% | 1.4% | 3.41 | 2.97 | +2.9 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 67 | 282 | 59 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.9% | 7.9% | 13.0% | 2.3% | 3.46 | 3.62 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 59 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.9% | 7.9% | 13.0% | 2.4% | 3.48 | 3.64 | +0.8 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 167 | 699 | 151 | 53 | 13 | — | — | 21.6% | 7.6% | 14.0% | 1.8% | 3.43 | 3.23 | +4.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 167 | 706 | 151 | 53 | 13 | — | — | 21.4% | 7.5% | 13.8% | 1.8% | 3.44 | 3.24 | +4.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 17 | 17 | 103 | 434 | 86 | 36 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.8% | 8.2% | 11.6% | 2.5% | 4.09 | 4.24 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 16 | 16 | 96 | 405 | 77 | 35 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.0% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.47 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 15 | 15 | 89 | 375 | 68 | 33 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.2% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.73 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 14 | 82 | 344 | 60 | 32 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.4% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 4.83 | 5.00 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 12 | 12 | 74 | 313 | 58 | 28 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.5% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 3.6% | 4.96 | 5.04 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 17 | 17 | 103 | 435 | 86 | 36 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.8% | 8.2% | 11.6% | 2.6% | 4.11 | 4.26 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 16 | 16 | 96 | 405 | 77 | 35 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.0% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.50 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 15 | 15 | 89 | 376 | 69 | 34 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.2% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.59 | 4.76 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 14 | 82 | 346 | 60 | 32 | 12 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.4% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 4.86 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 12 | 12 | 74 | 312 | 58 | 28 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.5% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 3.7% | 4.99 | 5.07 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 155 | 148 | 867 | 3662 | 699 | 306 | 103 | 95% | 5.6 | 19.1% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.09 | +13.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 34 | 200 | 845 | 161 | 71 | 24 | 95% | 5.6 | 19.1% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 158 | 144 | 730 | 3123 | 623 | 255 | 101 | 91% | 4.6 | 19.9% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.22 | +10.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 39 | 200 | 856 | 171 | 70 | 28 | 91% | 4.6 | 19.9% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Davis Martin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 18.3% | 8.4% | 3.1% | — | 4.47 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 288 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Jesse Chavez R 2028 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.80 | 20.2% | 6.8% | 2.8% | .309 | 4.37 | 22.0% | 16.2% | 300 | +0.57 | 2.03 | 804 | 74 |
| Mario Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.86 | 17.9% | 5.7% | 2.8% | .276 | 4.19 | 14.1% | 9.1% | 104 | +0.33 | 3.86 | 368 | 70 |
| Matt Buschmann R 2028 · 3.92 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.92 | 17.2% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .282 | 4.71 | 12.8% | 4.4% | 142 | +0.79 | 3.92 | 277 | 70 |
| Merrill Kelly R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.21 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 3.6% | .289 | 3.67 | 21.1% | 14.8% | 390 | -0.54 | 3.54 | 1,102 | 69 |
| Miguel González R 2028 · 4.59 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.59 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 4.25 | 15.9% | 9.0% | 325 | -0.34 | 3.73 | 469 | 69 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.84 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.10 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.26 | 3.84 | 567 | 68 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.65 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 262 | 68 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 68 |
| Charlie Morton R 2028 · 3.55 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.55 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 2.1% | .302 | 3.11 | 27.7% | 18.9% | 331 | -0.44 | 2.55 | 1,534 | 68 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2028 · 3.67 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.67 | 21.2% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .302 | 4.58 | 20.6% | 10.5% | 285 | +0.91 | 3.67 | 469 | 67 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.03 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 2.0% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 248 | 67 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 67 |
| Kyle Davies R 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.72 | 13.8% | 6.1% | 1.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 153 | 67 |
| Manuel Flores R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.14 | 13.8% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .317 | 3.61 | 14.4% | 9.2% | 263 | -0.53 | 3.55 | 515 | 66 |
| Cory Riordan R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.19 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 154 | 66 |
| Matt Garza R 2028 · 4.78 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.78 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 3.6% | .315 | 4.45 | 15.5% | 7.7% | 216 | -0.33 | 4.12 | 365 | 66 |
| Andrew Cashner R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.60 | 19.0% | 9.7% | 3.4% | .307 | 4.56 | 14.5% | 5.4% | 470 | -0.04 | 3.77 | 786 | 66 |
| Nate Long R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.86 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 151 | 66 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2029 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 66 |
| Tom Koehler R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.42 | 17.1% | 9.2% | 2.9% | .279 | 4.51 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 287 | +0.09 | 4.39 | 474 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 92 | 18.6% | 8.7% | 1.17 | 4.52 |
| Jhoulys Chacín ('22) | 7 | 108 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 1.13 | 4.51 |
| Chad Bettis ('19) | 5 | 106 | 16.7% | 7.8% | 1.17 | 4.90 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |
| Luis Perdomo ('22) | 5 | 90 | 16.6% | 7.8% | 1.08 | 5.09 |
| Clayton Richard ('19) | 5 | 102 | 15.4% | 7.9% | 1.04 | 4.79 |
| Aaron Sanchez ('22) | 7 | 93 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 0.98 | 4.32 |