Davis Martin

P Chicago White Sox

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.3 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX4 levels	18	17	71	4.06	3.35	23.5%	9.2%	1.8	K 21.4% · BB 10.5% · FIP 3.85
2025	28	MIX2 levels	28	27	148	4.13	4.35	17.4%	7.7%	1.8	K 17.3% · BB 7.8% · FIP 4.42
2026	29	MIX2 levels	30	29	151	3.81	3.56	20.1%	7.4%	3.4	K 19.8% · BB 7.5% · FIP 3.60
2027PROJ	30	MLBCWS	16	16	99	4.29	4.32	19.2%	7.7%	1.3
2028PROJ	31	MLBCWS	13	13	76	4.48	4.58	18.5%	8.1%	0.8
2029PROJ	32	MLBCWS	9	9	56	4.70	4.84	17.7%	8.5%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 7.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.680First FA2031

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Arb-1$2M2029Arb-2$2M2030Arb-3$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo41

K%34

xwOBA vs34

Form1.71 ERA (proj 4.29) · K 12.6% (proj 19.2%) · BB 8.0% (proj 7.7%) ▼▼ last 60d · 21 IP through Oct 27

CompsMiguel González (age 30) · Rolando Arrojo (age 32) · Chase Anderson (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.29

FIP4.32

K%19.2%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%11.5%

Proj IP99

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 99 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p3723.4%

p3419.8%

xwOBA vs

p340.331

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2022

Service 2.680 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$10M	+$10M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.1M
2030	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$15M	+$11M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	Great Falls Voyagers	9	2	21	92	22	6	1	22%	2.3	16.3%	8.2%	8.1%	1.5%	4.29	3.59	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	Great Falls Voyagers	9	2	21	92	22	6	1	22%	2.3	23.9%	6.5%	17.4%	1.1%	4.29	2.48	—
2019	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	27	27	145	625	156	38	17	100%	5.4	18.5%	7.2%	11.3%	4.2%	5.04	4.74	—
2019	22	A RAW	Kannapolis Intimidators	27	27	145	625	156	38	17	100%	5.4	25.0%	6.1%	18.9%	2.7%	5.04	3.26	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	88	390	98	34	11	100%	3.8	19.6%	9.9%	9.6%	3.6%	4.91	4.67	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	88	390	98	34	11	100%	3.8	25.1%	8.7%	16.4%	2.8%	4.91	3.66	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	27	140	604	147	43	23	84%	4.4	22.0%	7.4%	14.6%	3.5%	5.00	4.08	+2.2
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	27	140	604	147	43	23	84%	4.4	24.3%	7.1%	17.2%	3.8%	5.00	4.05	+2.2
2023	26	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	3	3	16	64	20	7	2	100%	5.3	26.9%	9.8%	17.0%	3.0%	2.81	3.71	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	3	3	16	64	20	7	2	100%	5.3	31.2%	10.9%	20.3%	3.1%	2.81	3.54	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	18	17	71	306	72	28	6	94%	3.9	21.4%	10.5%	10.9%	2.2%	4.06	3.85	+1.3
2024	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	18	17	71	306	72	28	6	94%	3.9	21.4%	10.5%	10.9%	2.2%	4.06	3.85	+1.3
2024	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	18	17	71	306	72	28	6	94%	3.9	23.5%	9.2%	14.4%	2.0%	4.06	3.35	+1.8
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	148	625	109	48	20	96%	5.3	17.3%	7.8%	9.5%	3.3%	4.13	4.42	+1.7
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	148	625	109	48	20	96%	5.3	17.3%	7.8%	9.5%	3.3%	4.13	4.42	+1.7
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	148	625	109	48	20	96%	5.3	17.4%	7.7%	9.8%	3.2%	4.13	4.35	+1.8
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	29	151	633	127	47	14	97%	5.0	19.8%	7.5%	12.3%	2.2%	3.81	3.60	+3.3
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	29	151	633	127	47	14	97%	5.0	19.8%	7.5%	12.3%	2.2%	3.81	3.60	+3.3
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	29	151	633	127	47	14	97%	5.0	20.1%	7.4%	12.6%	2.2%	3.81	3.56	+3.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			80	72	402	1707	321	134	47	90%	5.0	18.8%	7.9%	11.0%	2.8%	4.19	4.02	+6.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	CWS	16	16	99	418	80	32	11	100%	6.2	19.2%	7.7%	11.5%	2.7%	4.29	4.32	+1.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	CWS	13	13	76	321	59	26	9	100%	5.8	18.5%	8.1%	10.4%	2.9%	4.45	4.55	+0.8
2029	32	MLB MLE	CWS	9	9	56	238	42	20	8	100%	6.3	17.7%	8.5%	9.2%	3.2%	4.67	4.81	+0.4
2030	33	MLB MLE	CWS	7	7	40	167	28	15	6	100%	5.7	16.8%	8.9%	7.9%	3.5%	4.92	5.09	+0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	76	321	59	26	10	100%	5.8	18.5%	8.1%	10.4%	3.0%	4.48	4.58	+0.8
2029	32	MLB CTX	CWS	9	9	56	236	42	20	8	100%	6.2	17.7%	8.5%	9.2%	3.2%	4.70	4.84	+0.4
2030	33	MLB CTX	CWS	7	7	40	169	28	15	6	100%	5.7	16.8%	8.9%	7.9%	3.5%	4.95	5.12	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		109	101	574	2433	450	195	70	93%	5.3	18.5%	8.0%	10.5%	2.9%	4.33	4.13	+8.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	35	200	848	157	68	24	93%	5.3	18.5%	8.0%	10.5%	2.9%	4.33	4.13	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		170	155	780	3339	655	270	106	91%	4.6	19.6%	8.1%	11.5%	3.2%	4.45	4.20	+7.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	40	200	856	168	69	27	91%	4.6	19.6%	8.1%	11.5%	3.2%	4.45	4.20	+2.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 6 IPFIP 1.87 → 2.06 (+0.19)K% 20.8% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.83%	—	×0.860	17.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.17%	—	×0.900	3.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.320	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 164).

Result: FIP 1.87 → 2.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAACharlotte Knights · 8 IPFIP 2.42 → 2.56 (+0.14)K% 22.6% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.58%	—	×0.860	19.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.68%	—	×0.900	8.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.016	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.42 → 2.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL White Sox · 7 IPFIP 0.23 → 1.41 (+1.17)K% 39.3% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.29%	—	×0.680	26.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.57%	—	×1.250	4.46%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.076	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 0.23 → 1.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 6 IPFIP 3.41 → 5.06 (+1.65)K% 25.9% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.93%	—	×0.770	19.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.70%	—	×1.150	4.26%
HR / BF /BF	3.70%	÷0.817	×1.250	5.67%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 63).

Result: FIP 3.41 → 5.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAACharlotte Knights · 16 IPFIP 3.56 → 3.71 (+0.15)K% 31.2% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.25%	—	×0.860	26.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.94%	—	×0.900	9.84%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷1.152	×1.100	2.98%

Result: FIP 3.56 → 3.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAACharlotte Knights · 53 IPFIP 4.28 → 4.03 (−0.25)K% 28.3% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.33%	—	×0.880	24.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.73%	—	×1.050	8.11%
HR / BF /BF	4.72%	÷1.421	×1.100	3.65%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 184).

Result: FIP 4.28 → 4.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AABirmingham Barons · 24 IPFIP 3.39 → 4.29 (+0.90)K% 32.4% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.35%	—	×0.810	26.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.86%	—	×1.100	7.55%
HR / BF /BF	3.92%	÷1.056	×1.200	4.46%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 3.39 → 4.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 68 IPFIP 3.64 → 4.81 (+1.16)K% 25.7% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.74%	—	×0.770	19.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.58%	—	×1.150	9.87%
HR / BF /BF	2.97%	÷0.956	×1.250	3.88%

Result: FIP 3.64 → 4.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Davis Martin (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.76	17.8%	9.4%	172	+0.44	—	—	—
Miguel González R 2014 · 4.49 FIP	30	SP	4.49	16.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.268	4.26	16.6%	9.5%	457	-0.23	3.72	905	71
Rolando Arrojo R 2000 · 4.47 FIP	32	SP	4.47	16.1%	8.0%	3.1%	.291	3.68	16.4%	9.2%	185	-0.79	3.50	700	69
Chase Anderson R 2018 · 4.98 FIP	30	SP	4.98	19.9%	8.9%	4.4%	.235	4.93	20.1%	11.9%	253	-0.05	3.30	1,260	68
Tom Koehler R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	30	SP	4.38	19.0%	9.8%	3.0%	.291	4.66	22.4%	13.4%	110	+0.28	3.76	822	66
Lance Lynn R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	30	SP	4.68	19.7%	9.4%	3.7%	.237	3.25	25.9%	17.8%	449	-1.43	2.85	2,006	64
Adrian Sampson R 2022 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP	4.22	16.1%	6.2%	3.1%	.278	4.88	14.4%	7.0%	244	+0.66	3.23	1,012	61
Chi Chi González R 2022 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.6%	8.0%	3.0%	.315	5.33	11.2%	5.6%	122	+1.03	4.01	800	60
Christian Bergman R 2018 · 4.37 FIP	30	SP	4.37	15.7%	6.3%	3.3%	.327	7.36	13.2%	6.6%	26	+2.99	3.99	521	60
Cory Lidle R 2002 · 3.67 FIP	30	SP	3.67	13.9%	4.5%	2.1%	.275	4.13	14.1%	8.3%	589	+0.46	3.48	1,318	60
Jeremy Guthrie R 2009 · 5.09 FIP	30	SP	5.09	12.6%	6.8%	4.0%	.282	4.41	13.7%	7.5%	599	-0.68	4.08	1,834	59
Matt Buschmann R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	31	SP	4.03	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.84	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.03	277	58
Robert Person R 2000 · 3.80 FIP	30	SP	3.80	22.1%	12.7%	1.8%	.278	4.75	19.5%	9.1%	308	+0.95	3.41	885	58
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	58
Rodrigo Lopez R 2006 · 4.67 FIP	30	SP-	4.67	16.1%	6.7%	3.8%	.325	4.30	13.2%	7.9%	109	-0.37	4.06	1,344	58
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	57
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	57
Chris Bassitt R 2019 · 4.20 FIP	30	SP	4.20	23.0%	7.7%	3.8%	.258	3.35	23.2%	16.9%	402	-0.85	2.92	1,596	57
Mike Fiers R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	30	SP	3.86	23.7%	7.8%	3.2%	.277	4.73	19.9%	13.3%	494	+0.87	2.83	1,140	57
Chris Holt R 2001 · 4.50 FIP	29	SP-	4.50	11.5%	7.5%	2.6%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	732	57
Jeremy Hefner R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP	4.64	16.8%	9.1%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	322	57

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	84	18.6%	8.0%	1.10	4.32
Tim Stauffer ('15)	3.0	85	17.8%	8.0%	0.97	3.97
Kendall Graveman ('25)	3.3	96	17.6%	8.1%	1.06	4.03
Steve Crawford ('80-'91, 3 WAR*)	2.8	63	18.2%*	7.4%*	1.04*	4.28*
Manny Sarmiento ('76-'83, 4 WAR*)	2.6	86	18.9%*	8.1%*	1.20*	4.00*
Les Lancaster ('87-'93, 4 WAR*)	3.5	101	17.3%*	8.5%*	1.06*	4.37*
Randall Delgado ('18)	2.7	78	20.1%	8.8%	1.11	4.10