Davis Martin — OGILVIE

Davis Martin P Chicago White Sox

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION141 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA3.86

FIP4.02

K%19.7%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 154 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—65

STUF5555

CTRL6565

CMD5555

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p3723.5%

p3620.1%

xwOBA vs

p330.332

FB+3.4 (47%)

CH+1.6 (13%)

SL+0.5 (13%)

SI (19%)

CU (14%)

CT-2.5 (13%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2022

Service 1.680 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.7M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	Great Falls Voyagers	9	2	21	92	22	6	1	22%	2.3	16.3%	8.2%	8.1%	1.5%	4.29	3.59	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	Great Falls Voyagers	9	2	21	92	22	6	1	22%	2.3	23.9%	6.5%	17.4%	1.1%	4.29	2.48	—
2019	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	27	27	145	625	156	38	17	100%	5.4	18.5%	7.2%	11.3%	4.2%	5.04	4.74	—
2019	22	A RAW	Kannapolis Intimidators	27	27	145	625	156	38	17	100%	5.4	25.0%	6.1%	18.9%	2.7%	5.04	3.26	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	88	390	98	34	11	100%	3.8	19.6%	9.9%	9.6%	3.6%	4.91	4.67	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	88	390	98	34	11	100%	3.8	25.1%	8.7%	16.4%	2.8%	4.91	3.66	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	27	140	604	147	43	23	84%	4.4	22.0%	7.4%	14.6%	3.5%	5.00	4.08	+1.4
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	27	140	604	147	43	23	84%	4.4	24.3%	7.1%	17.2%	3.8%	5.00	4.05	+1.4
2023	26	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	3	3	16	64	20	7	2	100%	5.3	25.9%	9.8%	16.1%	3.0%	2.81	3.79	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	3	3	16	64	20	7	2	100%	5.3	25.9%	9.8%	16.1%	3.0%	2.81	3.79	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	3	3	16	64	20	7	2	100%	5.3	31.2%	10.9%	20.3%	3.1%	2.81	3.54	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	18	17	71	306	72	28	6	94%	3.9	21.4%	10.5%	10.9%	2.2%	4.06	3.85	+0.9
2024	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	18	17	71	306	72	28	6	94%	3.9	21.4%	10.5%	10.9%	2.2%	4.06	3.85	+0.9
2024	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	18	17	71	306	72	28	6	94%	3.9	23.5%	9.2%	14.4%	2.0%	4.06	3.35	+1.3
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	148	625	109	48	20	96%	5.3	17.3%	7.8%	9.5%	3.3%	4.13	4.42	+0.8
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	148	625	109	48	20	96%	5.3	17.3%	7.8%	9.5%	3.3%	4.13	4.42	+0.8
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	148	625	109	48	20	96%	5.3	17.4%	7.7%	9.8%	3.2%	4.13	4.35	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			77	70	392	1662	314	130	46	91%	5.1	18.9%	7.8%	11.1%	2.8%	4.23	4.02	+4.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	27	27	141	588	120	43	13	100%	5.2	20.1%	7.3%	12.8%	2.2%	3.90	3.56	+2.3
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	27	27	141	588	120	43	13	100%	5.2	20.1%	7.3%	12.8%	2.2%	3.90	3.56	+2.3
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	CWS	1	1	5	16	5	1	0	100%	5.0	31.2%	6.2%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.25	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	CWS	26	26	136	572	115	42	13	100%	5.2	20.1%	7.3%	12.8%	2.3%	4.05	3.58	+2.2
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	CWS	26	26	136	572	115	42	13	100%	5.2	20.1%	7.3%	12.8%	2.3%	4.05	3.58	+2.2
ROS	29	MLB MLE	CWS	2	2	13	57	11	4	2	100%	6.7	19.7%	7.7%	12.0%	2.9%	3.86	4.02	+0.1
ROS	29	MLB CTX	CWS	2	2	13	55	11	4	2	100%	6.5	19.7%	7.7%	12.0%	3.0%	3.89	4.05	+0.1
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	154	645	131	47	15	—	—	20.3%	7.3%	13.0%	2.3%	3.90	3.60	+2.4
FULL	29	MLB A+C	CWS	—	—	149	629	131	47	15	—	—	20.8%	7.5%	13.3%	2.3%	4.03	3.57	+2.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	CWS	17	17	103	434	82	35	12	100%	6.1	18.8%	8.0%	10.8%	2.9%	4.33	4.48	+0.5
2028	31	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	96	405	73	34	13	100%	6.0	18.1%	8.3%	9.7%	3.1%	4.56	4.71	+0.2
2029	32	MLB MLE	CWS	15	15	89	375	65	33	13	100%	5.9	17.3%	8.7%	8.5%	3.3%	4.80	4.96	-0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	CWS	17	17	103	435	82	35	13	100%	6.1	18.8%	8.0%	10.8%	2.9%	4.36	4.51	+0.5
2028	31	MLB CTX	CWS	16	16	96	405	73	34	13	100%	6.0	18.1%	8.3%	9.7%	3.1%	4.59	4.74	+0.2
2029	32	MLB CTX	CWS	15	15	89	376	65	33	13	100%	5.9	17.3%	8.7%	8.5%	3.4%	4.83	4.99	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		128	121	693	2933	545	236	86	95%	5.4	18.6%	8.0%	10.5%	2.9%	4.37	4.16	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	35	200	847	157	68	25	95%	5.4	18.6%	8.0%	10.5%	2.9%	4.37	4.16	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		167	153	770	3294	648	266	105	92%	4.6	19.7%	8.1%	11.6%	3.2%	4.48	4.21	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	40	200	856	168	69	27	92%	4.6	19.7%	8.1%	11.6%	3.2%	4.48	4.21	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Davis Martin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	18.4%	8.2%	3.1%	—	4.70	18.1%	9.8%	288	+0.01	—	—	—
Jesse Chavez R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	31	SP	3.87	20.2%	6.8%	2.9%	.309	4.29	22.0%	16.2%	300	+0.42	2.03	804	74
Andrew Cashner R 2016 · 4.59 FIP	29	SP	4.59	19.0%	9.7%	3.4%	.307	4.56	14.5%	5.4%	470	-0.03	3.64	786	74
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	71
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	71
Matt Buschmann R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	31	SP	4.03	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.84	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.03	277	71
Mario Gonzalez R 2016 · 3.94 FIP	29	SP	3.94	17.9%	5.7%	2.9%	.276	4.53	14.1%	9.1%	104	+0.59	3.94	368	71
Miguel González R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	31	SP	4.53	17.5%	7.9%	3.5%	.289	4.23	15.9%	9.0%	325	-0.30	3.72	469	70
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	69
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	69
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	69
Ramon Ramirez R 2015 · 3.65 FIP	32	SP	3.65	16.9%	9.7%	1.4%	.310	5.25	9.2%	-4.9%	29	+1.60	3.65	155	69
Merrill Kelly R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP	4.41	20.3%	6.8%	4.0%	.289	3.83	21.1%	14.8%	390	-0.58	3.60	1,160	69
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	69
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	205	68
Manuel Flores R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	29	SP	4.03	13.8%	7.1%	2.2%	.317	3.57	14.4%	9.2%	263	-0.46	3.46	515	68
Matt Garza R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	31	SP	4.61	15.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.315	4.30	15.5%	7.7%	216	-0.31	4.00	365	68
Charlie Morton R 2015 · 3.63 FIP	31	SP	3.63	17.9%	6.3%	2.3%	.302	3.22	27.7%	18.9%	331	-0.41	2.52	1,534	68
Kyle Davies R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	31	SP	3.58	13.8%	6.1%	1.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	153	68
Cory Riordan R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP	4.24	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	154	68
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	99	18.2%	8.3%	1.20	4.55
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
Matt Manning ('24)	1.3	64	16.4%	7.8%	1.06	4.43
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24