Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 140 | 605 | 91 | 47 | 16 | 100% | 5.6 | 14.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 3.66 | 4.42 | +1.6 |
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 140 | 605 | 91 | 47 | 16 | 100% | 5.6 | 15.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 2.6% | 3.66 | 4.29 | +1.8 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 31 | 31 | 186 | 786 | 108 | 45 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 13.7% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.27 | +2.5 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 31 | 31 | 186 | 786 | 108 | 45 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 13.7% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.20 | +2.6 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 115 | 500 | 77 | 35 | 13 | 100% | 5.2 | 15.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 4.25 | +1.6 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 115 | 500 | 77 | 35 | 13 | 100% | 5.2 | 15.4% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 4.45 | 4.14 | +1.7 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 11 | 58 | 265 | 43 | 20 | 12 | 100% | 5.3 | 15.5% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 6.33 | 5.42 | -0.6 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 11 | 58 | 265 | 43 | 20 | 12 | 100% | 5.3 | 16.2% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 4.5% | 6.33 | 5.33 | -0.5 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 2 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 3.0 | 34.8% | 4.3% | 30.4% | 4.3% | 3.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 2 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 3.0 | 34.8% | 4.3% | 30.4% | 4.3% | 3.00 | 3.10 | — |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 11 | 2 | 19 | 77 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 18% | 1.7 | 19.5% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 5.79 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 11 | 2 | 19 | 77 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 18% | 1.7 | 19.5% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 2.6% | 5.79 | 4.17 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 57 | 227 | 63 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.5% | 8.6% | 18.9% | 1.3% | 1.89 | 2.56 | +1.3 |
| 2021 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 57 | 227 | 63 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.8% | 8.8% | 18.9% | 1.3% | 1.89 | 2.63 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 65 | 0 | 65 | 285 | 66 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 8.4% | 14.7% | 1.7% | 3.18 | 3.14 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 65 | 0 | 65 | 285 | 66 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 8.4% | 14.7% | 1.8% | 3.18 | 3.18 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Houston Astros | 68 | 0 | 66 | 282 | 66 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 3.12 | 4.39 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Houston Astros | 68 | 0 | 66 | 282 | 66 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 3.12 | 4.50 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 34 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 2 | 22 | 100 | 12 | 13 | 2 | 9% | 1.0 | 11.0% | 14.6% | -3.7% | 2.3% | 5.73 | 5.31 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 34 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 2 | 22 | 100 | 12 | 13 | 2 | 9% | 1.0 | 12.0% | 13.0% | -1.0% | 2.0% | 5.73 | 4.96 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 52 | 0 | 54 | 229 | 47 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 4.80 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 39 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 12.2% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 4.93 | 5.16 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | ARI | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 32 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 12.8% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 5.31 | 5.57 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 39 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 12.2% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 4.93 | 5.16 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | ARI | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 32 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 12.8% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 5.31 | 5.57 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 380 | 80 | 755 | 3218 | 571 | 273 | 92 | 21% | 2.0 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.25 | +10.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 101 | 21 | 200 | 852 | 151 | 72 | 24 | 21% | 2.0 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 312 | 95 | 735 | 3150 | 543 | 251 | 89 | 30% | 2.4 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 3.99 | 4.20 | +10.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 85 | 26 | 200 | 858 | 148 | 68 | 24 | 30% | 2.4 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 3.99 | 4.20 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kendall Graveman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.80 | 20.4% | 11.6% | 2.9% | — | 5.35 | 18.9% | 6.4% | 90 | +0.55 | — | — | — |
| Alexi Ogando R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.95 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 132 | 73 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.76 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 244 | 69 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 68 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.91 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .269 | 5.68 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.77 | 4.91 | 172 | 68 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 68 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 67 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 66 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 104 | 66 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.15 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.5% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 65 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.00 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 147 | 65 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.22 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 269 | 64 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 64 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 35 | SW | 5.26 | 25.0% | 11.2% | 5.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 212 | 64 |
| Radhames Liz R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.31 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 110 | 63 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2024 · 5.46 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.46 | 14.3% | 10.4% | 4.1% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 148 | 62 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 62 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 61 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.36 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 144 | 61 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 5.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.83 | 17.9% | 14.2% | 4.5% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 170 | 61 |
| Jared Hughes R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.39 | 19.3% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.02 | 358 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 48 | 19.5% | 12.1% | 1.25 | 4.91 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |