Adrian Sampson

P Rochester Red Wings

Age 35 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAASP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	31	MIX2 levels	9	6	28	9.32	5.78	17.5%	10.9%	—	K 16.5% · BB 11.7% · FIP 6.46
2024	32	AAATEX	28	27	137	5.64	4.16	18.8%	7.2%	—	K 16.2% · BB 6.5% · FIP 4.50
2025	33	MIX3 levels	19	19	100	3.95	4.31	15.5%	8.6%	—	K 10.8% · BB 7.5% · FIP 5.08
2026	34	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	35	MLBWSH	1	1	6	5.14	5.06	13.5%	7.4%	0.0
2028PROJMLE	36	MLBWSH	—	—	0	5.31	5.43	12.4%	8.0%	—
2029PROJMLE	37	MLBWSH	—	—	0	5.62	5.83	11.3%	8.6%	—

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022

xwOBA vs39

FB Velo22

K%15

CompsJesse Estrada (age 35) · Juan Delgadillo (age 34) · Leo Medrano (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA5.14

FIP5.06

K%13.5%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%6.1%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2292.5

Whiff%

p2221.3%

p1517.1%

xwOBA vs

p390.324

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	23	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	28	28	163	715	123	35	13	100%	5.8	15.1%	5.1%	10.0%	1.8%	4.76	3.45	—
2015	23	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	28	28	163	715	123	35	13	100%	5.8	17.2%	4.9%	12.3%	1.8%	4.76	3.27	—
2016	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	85	345	63	13	7	100%	6.1	16.6%	3.9%	12.7%	1.9%	3.49	3.23	+2.3
2016	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	85	345	63	13	7	100%	6.1	18.3%	3.8%	14.5%	2.0%	3.49	3.15	+2.4
2017	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	8	8	31	130	21	3	1	100%	3.9	16.2%	2.3%	13.8%	0.8%	3.45	2.45	—
2017	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	8	8	31	130	21	3	1	100%	3.9	16.2%	2.3%	13.8%	0.8%	3.45	2.46	—
2018	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	23	150	634	100	28	18	61%	3.9	14.2%	4.6%	9.6%	3.0%	3.85	4.16	+2.2
2018	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	23	150	634	100	28	18	61%	3.9	15.8%	4.4%	11.4%	2.8%	3.85	3.89	+2.7
2019	27	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	35	15	125	563	101	35	29	43%	3.6	17.9%	6.2%	11.7%	5.0%	5.89	5.09	-0.8
2019	27	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	35	15	125	563	101	35	29	43%	3.6	17.9%	6.2%	11.7%	5.2%	5.89	5.33	-1.1
2021	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	117	506	89	40	27	73%	4.5	16.1%	8.2%	7.9%	5.5%	4.31	5.78	-0.5
2021	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	19	117	506	89	40	27	73%	4.5	17.6%	7.9%	9.7%	5.3%	4.31	5.60	-0.3
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	25	133	551	91	34	16	86%	4.6	16.1%	6.2%	9.9%	3.1%	3.26	4.22	+1.8
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	25	133	551	91	34	16	86%	4.6	16.5%	6.2%	10.3%	2.9%	3.26	4.06	+2.1
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	6	28	137	24	15	6	67%	3.1	16.5%	11.7%	4.7%	5.9%	9.32	6.46	—
2023	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	6	28	137	24	15	6	67%	3.1	17.5%	10.9%	6.6%	4.4%	9.32	5.78	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	28	27	137	637	120	46	19	96%	4.9	16.2%	6.5%	9.7%	3.5%	5.64	4.50	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	28	27	137	637	120	46	19	96%	4.9	16.2%	6.5%	9.7%	3.5%	5.64	4.50	—
2024	32	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	28	27	137	637	120	46	19	96%	4.9	18.8%	7.2%	11.6%	3.0%	5.64	4.16	—
2025	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	100	419	65	36	11	100%	5.3	10.8%	7.5%	3.3%	3.5%	3.95	5.08	—
2025	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	100	419	65	36	11	100%	5.3	10.8%	7.5%	3.3%	3.5%	3.95	5.08	—
2025	33	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	100	419	65	36	11	100%	5.3	15.5%	8.6%	6.9%	2.6%	3.95	4.31	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			72	44	293	1253	219	75	55	61%	4.1	17.5%	6.0%	11.5%	4.4%	4.43	4.82	+2.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	35	MLB	WSH	1	1	6	25	3	2	1	100%	6.0	13.5%	7.4%	6.1%	3.2%	5.14	5.06	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	WSH	6	6	39	164	20	13	6	100%	6.5	12.4%	8.0%	4.5%	3.6%	5.31	5.43	-0.0
2029	37	MLB MLE	WSH	5	5	28	119	13	10	5	100%	5.6	11.3%	8.6%	2.7%	4.0%	5.62	5.83	-0.1
2028	36	MLB CTX	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	12.4%	8.0%	4.5%	3.6%	5.31	5.43	—
2029	37	MLB CTX	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	11.3%	8.6%	2.7%	4.0%	5.62	5.83	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		72	44	293	1255	219	75	55	61%	4.1	17.5%	6.0%	11.5%	4.4%	4.43	4.79	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		49	30	200	856	149	51	38	61%	4.1	17.5%	6.0%	11.5%	4.4%	4.43	4.79	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		234	184	1069	4637	719	282	157	79%	4.6	15.5%	6.1%	9.4%	3.4%	4.54	4.43	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	34	200	867	134	53	29	79%	4.6	15.5%	6.1%	9.4%	3.4%	4.54	4.43	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAARochester Red Wings · 84 IPFIP 4.79 → 5.08 (+0.29)K% 12.6% → 10.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.57%	—	×0.860	10.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.38%	—	×0.900	7.54%
HR / BF /BF	3.07%	÷0.960	×1.100	3.52%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 4.79 → 5.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 12 IPFIP 2.72 → 3.29 (+0.57)K% 25.0% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.810	20.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.64%	—	×1.100	15.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.963	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 2.72 → 3.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAARound Rock Express · 137 IPFIP 4.06 → 4.50 (+0.44)K% 18.8% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.84%	—	×0.860	16.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.22%	—	×0.900	6.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.98%	÷0.928	×1.100	3.54%

Result: FIP 4.06 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAIowa Cubs · 23 IPFIP 6.00 → 6.46 (+0.46)K% 19.1% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.13%	—	×0.860	16.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.04%	—	×0.900	11.74%
HR / BF /BF	5.22%	÷0.965	×1.100	5.94%

Result: FIP 6.00 → 6.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Cubs · 5 IPFIP 2.33 → 2.58 (+0.25)K% 9.1% → 6.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	9.09%	—	×0.680	6.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.33 → 2.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAIowa Cubs · 28 IPFIP 5.26 → 5.73 (+0.46)K% 14.6% → 12.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.63%	—	×0.880	12.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.69%	—	×1.050	5.98%
HR / BF /BF	4.88%	÷0.996	×1.100	5.39%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 5.26 → 5.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAIowa Cubs · 82 IPFIP 5.68 → 5.96 (+0.28)K% 16.9% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.90%	—	×0.880	14.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.86%	—	×1.050	9.31%
HR / BF /BF	5.26%	÷1.081	×1.100	5.36%

Result: FIP 5.68 → 5.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAARound Rock Express · 127 IPFIP 3.56 → 3.90 (+0.34)K% 15.8% → 13.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.80%	—	×0.880	13.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.46%	—	×1.050	4.68%
HR / BF /BF	2.23%	÷0.978	×1.100	2.51%

Result: FIP 3.56 → 3.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adrian Sampson (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	5.60	12.0%	3.7%	67	+0.54	—	—	—
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	81
Juan Delgadillo R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	34	SP	4.47	10.9%	6.2%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	143	74
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	74
Walter Silva R 2009 · 5.72 FIP	32	SP	5.72	9.1%	12.4%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	453	68
Jonathan Castellanos R 2017 · 4.91 FIP	35	SP	4.91	8.4%	9.2%	2.5%	.314	5.24	11.0%	2.0%	67	+0.33	3.40	394	67
Kenshin Kawakami R 2010 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	15.1%	5.6%	2.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	244	67
Salvador Valdez R 2017 · 3.87 FIP	34	SP	3.87	9.4%	6.1%	1.4%	.328	4.30	17.1%	8.9%	38	+0.43	3.60	326	65
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	65
Jose Oyervides R 2017 · 5.38 FIP	35	SP	5.38	18.0%	6.3%	5.5%	.254	5.66	16.3%	5.1%	115	+0.28	3.01	407	65
Frankie De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP-	4.38	16.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	262	65
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	65
Michael Nix R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	33	SP	4.60	11.9%	11.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	234	64
Mitch Talbot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	35	SP	5.01	13.2%	4.3%	4.5%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	395	61
David Buchanan R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	35	SP-	4.26	14.7%	6.5%	2.9%	.337	5.56	12.2%	4.1%	29	+1.30	3.88	560	61
Cesar Carrillo R 2019 · 6.22 FIP	35	SP-	6.22	11.0%	9.2%	5.3%	.392	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	336	59
J.D. Martin R 2018 · 4.94 FIP	35	SP	4.94	10.4%	11.9%	2.2%	.284	5.89	13.9%	1.1%	125	+0.95	4.79	414	57
Luis Mendoza R 2019 · 5.10 FIP	35	SP	5.10	9.7%	4.2%	4.2%	.378	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	374	54
Yoanner Negrin R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	35	SP	3.87	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	485	54
Yohan Pino R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	33	SP-	5.33	15.2%	3.6%	5.6%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	193	52
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	49

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	59	16.0%	6.6%	1.60	4.69
Nelson Cruz ('03)	1.7	58	18.2%	7.2%	1.52	5.04
Amaury Telemaco ('05)	2.8	70	15.0%	8.0%	1.48	4.94
Jose Bautista ('88-'97, -2 WAR*)	3.4	86	14.0%*	5.8%*	1.72*	4.90*
Travis Harper ('06)	2.1	69	15.0%	7.5%	1.33	4.94
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Jim Willoughby ('71-'78, 4 WAR*)	2.8	79	16.0%*	6.2%*	1.42*	4.13*