Adrian Sampson
P
Rochester Red Wings
Age 34
RHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION58 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA5.21
FIP5.19
xFIP4.39
SIERA4.48
K%15.4%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%6.8%
IP58
K†3030
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
FB Velo
p2292.5
Whiff%
p2221.3%
K%
p1517.1%
xwOBA vs
p390.324
FB+5.6
CH+2.0
SL-2.7
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 28 | 28 | 163 | 715 | 123 | 35 | 13 | 15.1% | 5.1% | 1.6% | 4.76 | 3.35 | +3.9 |
| 2016 | 24 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 14 | 14 | 85 | 345 | 63 | 13 | 7 | 16.6% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 3.49 | 3.37 | +1.7 |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 8 | 8 | 31 | 130 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 16.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 3.45 | 2.45 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 38 | 23 | 150 | 634 | 100 | 28 | 18 | 14.2% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 3.85 | 4.19 | +2.1 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 35 | 15 | 125 | 563 | 101 | 35 | 29 | 17.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.89 | 5.13 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 26 | 19 | 117 | 506 | 89 | 40 | 27 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 4.31 | 5.58 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 29 | 25 | 133 | 551 | 91 | 34 | 16 | 16.1% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 3.26 | 4.16 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 31 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 9 | 6 | 28 | 137 | 24 | 15 | 6 | 16.8% | 13.7% | 6.2% | 9.32 | 6.80 | -0.7 |
| 2024 | 32 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 28 | 27 | 137 | 637 | 120 | 46 | 19 | 16.6% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 5.64 | 4.77 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 33 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 19 | 19 | 100 | 419 | 65 | 36 | 11 | 11.1% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 3.95 | 5.30 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 35 | 19 | 8 | 15.4% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 5.21 | 5.19 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 29 | 19 | 8 | 14.4% | 9.1% | 3.8% | 5.40 | 5.52 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 24 | 18 | 8 | 13.4% | 9.7% | 4.2% | 5.69 | 5.89 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 234 | 184 | 1069 | 4637 | 723 | 297 | 158 | 15.6% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 4.54 | 4.47 | +11.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 34 | 200 | 867 | 135 | 56 | 30 | 15.6% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 4.54 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adrian Sampson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.19 | 15.4% | 8.6% | 3.5% | — | 5.69 | 14.0% | 4.6% | 91 | +0.50 | — | — | — |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.91 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .269 | 5.68 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.77 | 4.91 | 172 | 91 |
| Fernando Villalobos R 2024 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 10.6% | 8.0% | 2.8% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 152 | 87 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.67 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .304 | 3.59 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 113 | -1.08 | 2.78 | 326 | 85 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.97 | 8.9% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.71 | 160 | 84 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2028 · 5.02 FIP | 36 | SW | 5.02 | 9.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | .282 | 4.48 | 11.8% | 5.3% | 103 | -0.54 | 4.48 | 156 | 83 |
| George Kontos R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.10 | 15.4% | 9.0% | 4.0% | .356 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 290 | 82 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 82 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 82 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2024 · 4.95 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.95 | 8.4% | 9.2% | 2.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.68 | 104 | 82 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.22 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 3.3% | .282 | 3.92 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 67 | -0.30 | 3.92 | 186 | 81 |
| Sergio Valenzuela R 2024 · 5.47 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.47 | 10.6% | 6.5% | 4.5% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 244 | 80 |
| Hector Navarro R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.75 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | .281 | 2.93 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.82 | 2.30 | 126 | 79 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2025 · 5.46 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.46 | 14.3% | 10.4% | 4.1% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 148 | 79 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.03 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 4.4% | .318 | 4.19 | 12.6% | 5.9% | 104 | -0.84 | 3.79 | 264 | 79 |
| Raul Barron R 2025 · 6.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 6.26 | 11.4% | 8.9% | 5.5% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 201 | 76 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2024 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.68 | 12.2% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .420 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 203 | 76 |
| J.D. Martin R 2025 · 4.84 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.84 | 9.4% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .302 | 5.47 | 12.2% | -0.2% | 249 | +0.63 | 4.84 | 289 | 76 |
| Jose Pina R 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.19 | 14.6% | 6.8% | 4.5% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 424 | 74 |
| Jared Hughes R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.05 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .224 | 4.39 | 19.3% | 8.3% | 22 | -0.66 | 3.02 | 358 | 74 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.23 | 14.8% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .331 | 4.76 | 14.9% | 5.8% | 48 | +0.53 | 3.20 | 244 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.