Jonathan Santucci

P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 24 LHP 6'2" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.4 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTPre-ArbFA 2033

OGV OFP40OGV rank#147ETA2028MLB%6%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	25	23	118	3.06	2.79	28.7%	8.5%	—	K 22.6% · BB 9.6% · FIP 3.62
2026	23	MIX2 levels	27	27	125	4.03	3.12	30.8%	12.5%	—	K 25.3% · BB 12.9% · FIP 3.78
2027PROJ	24	MLBNYM	2	2	9	4.36	4.36	25.3%	12.3%	0.1
2028PROJ46% MLB	25	MLBNYM	10	10	57	4.28	4.24	25.4%	11.3%	0.8
2029PROJ68% MLB	26	MLBNYM	13	13	78	4.24	4.22	25.3%	11.0%	1.1

Next 3 projected WAR 2.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$3M2031Arb-2$4M2032Arb-3$5M

Career WAR0.4 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 17, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 70%

CompsDamon Jones (age 24) · Scott Moss (age 24) · Parker Messick (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 116

ERA4.36

FIP4.36

K%25.3%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%13.0%

Proj IP145

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 145 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$26M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+1.2	$8M	+$5M
2031	Arb-2	$4M	+1.1	$6M	+$4M
2032	Arb-3	$5M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$9M		$28M	+$18M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	118	481	138	41	9	92%	4.7	22.6%	9.6%	13.0%	2.2%	3.06	3.62	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	118	481	138	41	9	92%	4.7	22.6%	9.6%	13.0%	2.2%	3.06	3.62	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	118	481	138	41	9	92%	4.7	28.7%	8.5%	20.2%	1.9%	3.06	2.79	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	125	530	163	66	10	100%	4.6	25.3%	12.9%	12.4%	2.2%	4.03	3.78	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	125	530	163	66	10	100%	4.6	25.3%	12.9%	12.4%	2.2%	4.03	3.78	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	125	530	163	66	10	100%	4.6	30.8%	12.5%	18.3%	1.9%	4.03	3.12	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	NYM	2	2	9	38	10	5	1	100%	4.5	25.3%	12.3%	13.0%	2.7%	4.36	4.36	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYM	21	21	123	518	132	58	14	100%	5.8	25.4%	11.3%	14.1%	2.7%	4.28	4.24	+1.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYM	19	19	115	485	123	53	13	100%	6.0	25.3%	11.0%	14.4%	2.7%	4.24	4.22	+1.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYM	18	18	110	463	117	50	13	100%	6.1	25.2%	10.9%	14.3%	2.8%	4.25	4.26	+1.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYM	17	17	104	440	110	48	13	100%	6.1	25.0%	10.9%	14.0%	2.9%	4.30	4.34	+1.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYM	16	16	97	410	101	46	12	100%	6.1	24.7%	11.2%	13.5%	3.0%	4.40	4.47	+1.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	NYM	15	15	88	372	91	43	12	100%	5.9	24.4%	11.5%	12.9%	3.2%	4.55	4.65	+0.8
2034	31	MLB MLE	NYM	13	13	78	331	79	39	11	100%	6.0	24.0%	11.8%	12.1%	3.5%	4.73	4.85	+0.5
2035	32	MLB MLE	NYM	12	12	69	291	69	36	11	100%	5.8	23.5%	12.2%	11.3%	3.7%	4.94	5.08	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYM	10	10	57	241	61	27	6	100%	5.7	25.4%	11.3%	14.1%	2.7%	4.28	4.24	+0.8
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYM	13	13	78	329	83	36	9	100%	6.0	25.3%	11.0%	14.4%	2.7%	4.24	4.22	+1.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYM	14	14	86	363	91	40	10	100%	6.1	25.2%	10.9%	14.3%	2.8%	4.25	4.26	+1.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYM	15	15	88	372	93	41	11	100%	5.9	25.0%	10.9%	14.0%	2.9%	4.30	4.34	+1.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYM	14	14	85	359	89	40	11	100%	6.1	24.7%	11.2%	13.5%	3.0%	4.40	4.47	+0.9
2033	30	MLB CTX	NYM	13	13	79	334	81	38	11	100%	6.1	24.4%	11.5%	12.9%	3.2%	4.55	4.65	+0.7
2034	31	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	72	304	73	36	10	100%	6.0	24.0%	11.8%	12.1%	3.4%	4.73	4.85	+0.5
2035	32	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	64	270	64	33	10	100%	5.8	23.5%	12.2%	11.3%	3.7%	4.93	5.07	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		102	102	610	2574	636	291	78	100%	6.0	24.7%	11.3%	13.4%	3.0%	4.44	4.12	+9.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	209	95	26	100%	6.0	24.7%	11.3%	13.4%	3.0%	4.44	4.12	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		52	50	243	1011	243	115	22	96%	4.7	24.0%	11.3%	12.7%	2.2%	3.56	3.70	+8.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	41	200	833	200	94	18	96%	4.7	24.0%	11.3%	12.7%	2.2%	3.56	3.70	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 91 IPFIP 2.50 → 3.29 (+0.78)K% 32.0% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.00%	—	×0.810	25.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.00%	—	×1.100	13.20%
HR / BF /BF	1.07%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.28%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.50 → 3.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAASyracuse Mets · 34 IPFIP 4.60 → 4.97 (+0.37)K% 27.7% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.74%	—	×0.860	23.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.55%	—	×0.900	12.19%
HR / BF /BF	3.87%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.26%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.60 → 4.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 68 IPFIP 3.25 → 4.14 (+0.89)K% 26.4% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.41%	—	×0.770	20.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.10%	—	×1.150	9.31%
HR / BF /BF	2.46%	÷1.073	×1.250	2.87%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 3.25 → 4.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 50 IPFIP 2.11 → 2.86 (+0.75)K% 32.0% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.98%	—	×0.810	25.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.14%	—	×1.100	10.05%
HR / BF /BF	1.02%	÷0.990	×1.200	1.23%

Result: FIP 2.11 → 2.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonathan Santucci (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.24	25.3%	14.2%	347	-0.12	—	—	—
Damon Jones L 2019 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP	3.71	25.9%	13.8%	1.9%	.266	4.21	25.5%	7.4%	41	+0.50	3.71	269	85
Scott Moss L 2019 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	23.7%	13.9%	2.0%	.291	4.14	26.3%	10.1%	20	+0.20	3.83	457	83
Parker Messick L 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	23.8%	9.1%	2.1%	.302	3.09	25.2%	18.3%	325	-0.27	2.97	580	81
Connelly Early L 2024 · 3.33 FIP	22	SP	3.33	24.1%	9.8%	1.9%	.292	3.28	26.0%	17.0%	214	-0.05	2.52	318	80
Sean Newcomb L 2017 · 3.61 FIP	24	SP	3.61	24.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.310	4.03	22.3%	11.8%	267	+0.42	2.76	1,030	80
Adam Scott L 2019 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	20.7%	8.2%	3.3%	.318	4.94	21.9%	9.2%	136	+0.77	4.17	315	79
Erik Bedard L 2004 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP	4.01	19.1%	11.1%	2.1%	.317	3.28	23.8%	15.5%	520	-0.73	2.96	1,317	78
Logan Allen L 2023 · 3.83 FIP	24	SP	3.83	22.7%	9.0%	2.7%	.312	4.72	19.5%	10.7%	422	+0.89	3.67	812	77
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	77
Shane Drohan L 2023 · 5.13 FIP	24	SP	5.13	19.8%	12.1%	4.0%	.308	3.44	25.0%	16.1%	197	-1.69	2.79	538	77
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	77
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	77
Robert Gasser L 2023 · 3.38 FIP	24	SP	3.38	24.1%	7.6%	2.5%	.305	3.48	22.6%	16.0%	208	+0.10	2.38	494	77
Ken Waldichuk L 2022 · 3.51 FIP	24	SP	3.51	27.7%	8.9%	2.9%	.292	5.21	21.0%	9.0%	192	+1.70	3.51	432	76
Bryan Sammons L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	24	SP	4.28	21.1%	11.0%	2.9%	.287	6.30	18.5%	6.7%	158	+2.02	3.58	688	76
Brandyn Garcia L 2024 · 3.27 FIP	24	SP	3.27	21.2%	10.7%	1.1%	.289	3.27	26.9%	17.0%	122	+0.00	2.44	238	76
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	76
Tyler DeLoach L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	19.0%	10.1%	2.6%	.332	2.96	21.7%	12.4%	63	-1.26	2.96	202	76
Keegan Akin L 2019 · 4.13 FIP	24	SP	4.13	22.9%	12.7%	2.5%	.329	3.98	22.3%	14.5%	202	-0.15	2.62	743	76
Roenis Elías L 2014 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP	3.77	20.6%	8.8%	2.4%	.285	4.39	17.8%	8.8%	336	+0.62	3.15	728	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	103	24.9%	11.4%	1.14	4.41
Wayne Twitchell ('70-'79, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	24.2%*	11.3%*	1.16*	4.56*
Bobby Castillo ('77-'85, 5 WAR*)	3.4	86	22.3%*	11.3%*	1.23*	4.27*
Juan Berenguer ('78-'92, 9 WAR*)	6.0	100	26.4%*	11.6%*	1.13*	4.14*
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Darren Dreifort ('04)	4.4	97	21.2%	10.3%	0.93	4.36