Jonathan Santucci

Jonathan Santucci P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 2.0 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION120 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97105vR 113

ERA4.22

FIP4.22

K%23.9%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%13.8%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 132 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$22M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL4550

CMD3545

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+1.1	$6M	+$4M
2031	Arb-2	$7M	+1.0	$5M	+$2M
2032	Arb-3	$8M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$14M		$26M	+$15M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	118	481	138	41	9	92%	4.7	22.6%	9.6%	13.0%	2.2%	3.06	3.62	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	118	481	138	41	9	92%	4.7	22.6%	9.6%	13.0%	2.2%	3.06	3.62	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	118	481	138	41	9	92%	4.7	28.7%	8.5%	20.2%	1.9%	3.06	2.79	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	26	26	120	509	157	63	9	100%	4.6	25.1%	12.9%	12.2%	2.0%	3.99	3.72	—
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	26	26	120	509	157	63	9	100%	4.6	25.1%	12.9%	12.2%	2.0%	3.99	3.72	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AA RAW	NYM	19	19	91	375	120	45	4	100%	4.8	32.0%	12.0%	20.0%	1.1%	3.57	2.50	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	NYM	7	7	29	134	37	18	5	100%	4.1	27.6%	13.4%	14.2%	3.7%	5.28	4.52	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	NYM	2	2	12	53	13	5	1	100%	6.2	23.9%	10.2%	13.8%	2.7%	4.22	4.22	+0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	132	562	170	68	10	—	—	30.2%	12.2%	18.0%	1.9%	4.01	3.77	+1.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	NYM	25	25	141	596	145	57	16	100%	5.6	24.3%	9.6%	14.7%	2.7%	4.16	4.12	+1.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYM	24	24	143	603	148	56	16	100%	6.0	24.5%	9.3%	15.2%	2.7%	4.11	4.07	+1.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYM	24	24	143	603	148	56	16	100%	6.0	24.6%	9.2%	15.4%	2.7%	4.08	4.06	+1.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYM	23	23	141	594	146	55	16	100%	6.1	24.5%	9.2%	15.3%	2.8%	4.09	4.10	+1.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYM	23	23	137	577	141	54	17	100%	5.9	24.4%	9.4%	15.0%	2.9%	4.15	4.18	+1.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYM	22	22	130	551	133	53	17	100%	5.9	24.1%	9.6%	14.5%	3.0%	4.25	4.31	+0.9
2033	30	MLB MLE	NYM	20	20	123	518	123	51	17	100%	6.1	23.8%	9.9%	13.9%	3.2%	4.39	4.49	+0.6
2034	31	MLB MLE	NYM	19	19	114	483	113	50	17	100%	6.0	23.4%	10.3%	13.1%	3.4%	4.57	4.69	+0.3
2035	32	MLB MLE	NYM	18	18	106	447	103	48	16	100%	5.9	22.9%	10.7%	12.3%	3.7%	4.78	4.92	-0.0
2036	33	MLB MLE	NYM	16	16	97	410	92	46	16	100%	6.1	22.4%	11.1%	11.3%	4.0%	5.01	5.17	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	62	262	64	25	7	100%	5.6	24.3%	9.6%	14.7%	2.7%	4.16	4.12	+0.6
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYM	16	16	96	405	99	38	11	100%	6.0	24.5%	9.3%	15.2%	2.7%	4.11	4.07	+0.9
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYM	19	19	114	481	118	44	13	100%	6.0	24.6%	9.2%	15.4%	2.7%	4.08	4.06	+1.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYM	20	20	120	507	124	47	14	100%	6.0	24.5%	9.2%	15.3%	2.8%	4.09	4.10	+1.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYM	20	20	122	515	126	48	15	100%	6.1	24.4%	9.4%	15.0%	2.9%	4.15	4.18	+1.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYM	20	20	119	502	121	48	15	100%	6.0	24.1%	9.6%	14.5%	3.0%	4.25	4.31	+0.8
2033	30	MLB CTX	NYM	19	19	113	477	114	47	15	100%	5.9	23.8%	9.9%	13.9%	3.2%	4.39	4.49	+0.5
2034	31	MLB CTX	NYM	18	18	107	452	106	46	15	100%	5.9	23.4%	10.3%	13.1%	3.4%	4.57	4.69	+0.3
2035	32	MLB CTX	NYM	16	16	99	418	96	45	15	100%	6.2	22.9%	10.7%	12.3%	3.7%	4.77	4.91	-0.0
2036	33	MLB CTX	NYM	15	15	92	388	87	43	15	100%	6.1	22.4%	11.1%	11.3%	4.0%	5.00	5.16	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		175	175	1043	4404	1054	432	136	100%	6.0	23.9%	9.8%	14.1%	3.1%	4.34	4.02	+11.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	202	83	26	100%	6.0	23.9%	9.8%	14.1%	3.1%	4.34	4.02	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		51	49	237	990	237	112	21	96%	4.7	23.9%	11.3%	12.6%	2.1%	3.53	3.67	+8.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	41	200	834	199	94	18	96%	4.7	23.9%	11.3%	12.6%	2.1%	3.53	3.67	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonathan Santucci (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.22	23.9%	10.2%	2.7%	—	4.08	24.5%	15.1%	427	-0.14	—	—	—
Andrew Abbott L 2022 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	26.0%	10.9%	2.0%	.336	3.92	23.6%	15.7%	468	+0.56	3.36	740	87
Adam Scott L 2019 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	20.7%	8.2%	3.3%	.318	4.94	21.9%	9.2%	136	+0.77	4.17	315	86
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	86
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.21	24.7%	17.0%	444	-0.70	3.02	566	86
Nick Zwack L 2022 · 3.16 FIP	23	SP	3.16	23.9%	9.3%	1.6%	.299	5.73	18.2%	8.6%	143	+2.57	3.16	289	85
Shane McClanahan L 2019 · 3.36 FIP	22	SP	3.36	23.3%	10.4%	1.7%	.315	3.07	29.0%	22.6%	290	-0.29	2.95	643	84
Kevin Smith L 2019 · 3.26 FIP	22	SP	3.26	21.2%	9.2%	1.4%	.337	5.78	21.5%	5.1%	131	+2.52	3.26	248	83
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	83
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	82
Ken Waldichuk L 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	28.7%	12.5%	3.3%	.279	4.29	24.1%	14.1%	271	+0.23	3.51	432	82
Cade Povich L 2023 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	25.4%	12.1%	3.4%	.298	4.33	21.8%	13.5%	382	-0.02	3.81	623	82
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	81
David Parkinson L 2019 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	19.6%	8.8%	2.1%	.303	5.44	16.0%	8.2%	78	+1.74	3.07	517	81
Austin Krob L 2023 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP	3.59	19.9%	10.7%	1.5%	.329	4.00	17.4%	7.1%	171	+0.41	3.59	280	81
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.91	16.6%	6.8%	354	+2.44	3.47	522	81
Eric Lauer L 2018 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	20.2%	9.1%	2.7%	.311	3.90	22.3%	14.4%	279	-0.10	3.75	1,097	81
Anthony Banda L 2017 · 4.09 FIP	23	SP	4.09	19.7%	9.7%	2.6%	.315	4.19	21.5%	12.1%	85	+0.10	2.89	876	80
David Peterson L 2019 · 3.64 FIP	23	SP	3.64	19.8%	8.2%	2.1%	.333	3.77	24.8%	14.4%	248	+0.13	2.81	1,061	79
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	79
Tyler Thomas L 2018 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP	3.39	19.3%	7.3%	1.8%	.255	3.55	24.2%	14.6%	54	+0.16	2.67	279	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.1	128	24.0%	9.8%	1.17	4.31
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17