Jonathan Santucci
P
Binghamton Rumble Ponies
Age 23
LHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.5 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION80 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97106vR 115
ERA4.21
FIP4.21
K%23.9%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%13.7%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 145 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 23 | 118 | 481 | 138 | 41 | 9 | 92% | 4.7 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 2.1% | 3.06 | 3.56 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 23 | 118 | 481 | 138 | 41 | 9 | 92% | 4.7 | 28.7% | 8.5% | 20.2% | 1.9% | 3.06 | 2.79 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 17 | 17 | 80 | 331 | 101 | 40 | 4 | 100% | 4.7 | 24.7% | 13.3% | 11.4% | 1.5% | 3.60 | 3.49 | +1.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 65 | 28 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.9% | 10.2% | 13.7% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 4.21 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | NYM | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 10.2% | 13.7% | 2.6% | 4.21 | 4.21 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 145 | 605 | 166 | 68 | 11 | — | — | 27.5% | 11.2% | 16.3% | 1.9% | 3.87 | 3.81 | +2.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 23.9% | 10.2% | 13.7% | 2.6% | 4.21 | 3.83 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 25 | 25 | 141 | 596 | 145 | 58 | 16 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.3% | 9.7% | 14.6% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.11 | +2.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 24 | 24 | 143 | 603 | 148 | 57 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.5% | 9.4% | 15.1% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.06 | +2.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 24 | 24 | 143 | 603 | 148 | 56 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.6% | 9.2% | 15.3% | 2.7% | 4.07 | 4.05 | +2.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 23 | 23 | 141 | 594 | 146 | 55 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.5% | 9.3% | 15.2% | 2.7% | 4.08 | 4.09 | +2.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 23 | 23 | 137 | 577 | 141 | 54 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.4% | 9.4% | 15.0% | 2.8% | 4.14 | 4.18 | +1.9 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 22 | 22 | 130 | 551 | 133 | 53 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.1% | 9.7% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.31 | +1.7 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 123 | 518 | 123 | 52 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.8% | 10.0% | 13.8% | 3.2% | 4.39 | 4.48 | +1.3 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 19 | 19 | 114 | 483 | 113 | 50 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.4% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 3.4% | 4.57 | 4.69 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 64 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.3% | 9.7% | 14.6% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.11 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 16 | 16 | 96 | 405 | 99 | 38 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.5% | 9.4% | 15.1% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.06 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 19 | 19 | 114 | 481 | 118 | 45 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.6% | 9.2% | 15.3% | 2.7% | 4.07 | 4.05 | +1.8 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 120 | 507 | 124 | 47 | 14 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.5% | 9.3% | 15.2% | 2.7% | 4.08 | 4.09 | +1.8 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 122 | 515 | 126 | 49 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.4% | 9.4% | 15.0% | 2.8% | 4.14 | 4.18 | +1.7 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 119 | 502 | 121 | 49 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.1% | 9.7% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.31 | +1.5 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 19 | 19 | 113 | 477 | 114 | 48 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.8% | 10.0% | 13.8% | 3.2% | 4.39 | 4.48 | +1.2 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 18 | 18 | 107 | 452 | 106 | 47 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.4% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 3.4% | 4.57 | 4.69 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 143 | 143 | 853 | 3601 | 871 | 346 | 105 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 3.87 | +15.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 204 | 81 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 3.87 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 42 | 40 | 198 | 812 | 191 | 90 | 15 | 95% | 4.7 | 23.5% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 1.8% | 3.28 | 3.53 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 40 | 200 | 822 | 193 | 91 | 15 | 95% | 4.7 | 23.5% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 1.8% | 3.28 | 3.53 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jonathan Santucci (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.21 | 23.9% | 10.2% | 2.7% | — | 4.07 | 24.5% | 15.0% | 427 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Andrew Abbott L 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.37 | 26.0% | 10.9% | 2.0% | .336 | 3.94 | 23.8% | 15.7% | 468 | +0.57 | 3.37 | 691 | 88 |
| Parker Messick L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.30 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 1.9% | .302 | 3.25 | 24.8% | 16.6% | 250 | -0.05 | 3.21 | 506 | 87 |
| Pete Hansen L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.17 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.84 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 325 | -0.33 | 3.66 | 437 | 86 |
| Greg Farone L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.26 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.8% | .301 | 6.14 | 17.6% | 4.8% | 71 | +1.88 | 4.26 | 176 | 85 |
| Nick Zwack L 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.10 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 1.5% | .299 | 5.99 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 143 | +2.89 | 3.10 | 271 | 85 |
| Adam Scott L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.53 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 3.9% | .318 | 5.02 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 136 | +0.49 | 4.53 | 315 | 84 |
| Shane McClanahan L 2025 · 3.35 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.35 | 23.3% | 10.4% | 1.6% | .315 | 3.12 | 29.0% | 22.6% | 290 | -0.23 | 3.00 | 611 | 84 |
| Kevin Smith L 2025 · 3.19 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.19 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 1.3% | .337 | 5.79 | 21.5% | 5.1% | 131 | +2.60 | 3.19 | 248 | 83 |
| Lucas Gordon L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.60 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .269 | 5.90 | 20.7% | 8.4% | 87 | +1.30 | 4.60 | 308 | 83 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.24 | 24.9% | 10.8% | 3.4% | .298 | 5.19 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 358 | +0.95 | 4.24 | 501 | 83 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.83 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 160 | 82 |
| Ken Waldichuk L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.97 | 28.7% | 12.5% | 3.1% | .279 | 4.19 | 24.1% | 14.1% | 271 | +0.22 | 3.42 | 432 | 82 |
| Austin Krob L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.73 | 19.9% | 10.7% | 1.8% | .329 | 4.10 | 17.7% | 6.7% | 171 | +0.37 | 3.73 | 280 | 82 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .262 | 5.86 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.18 | 3.64 | 203 | 82 |
| David Parkinson L 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.55 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .303 | 5.56 | 16.0% | 8.2% | 78 | +2.01 | 3.08 | 517 | 81 |
| Drew Parrish L 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.53 | 24.1% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .261 | 6.22 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 354 | +2.69 | 3.53 | 522 | 81 |
| Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.06 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .297 | 6.60 | 15.1% | 4.8% | 51 | +2.54 | 4.06 | 248 | 81 |
| Cade Povich L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.24 | 25.9% | 12.9% | 3.1% | .298 | 4.17 | 22.5% | 13.8% | 330 | -0.07 | 3.77 | 571 | 81 |
| Eric Lauer L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.13 | 20.2% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .311 | 4.06 | 22.3% | 14.4% | 279 | -0.07 | 3.81 | 1,101 | 80 |
| Anthony Banda L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.03 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 2.5% | .315 | 4.10 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 85 | +0.07 | 2.98 | 876 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 134 | 24.2% | 9.7% | 1.10 | 4.21 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| Jake Odorizzi ('22) | 7 | 148 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 1.24 | 3.92 |
| James Paxton ('24) | 8 | 106 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.12 | 3.89 |
| Danny Duffy ('21) | 7 | 124 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 4.04 |