Shane Drohan

P Milwaukee Brewers

Age 28 LHP 6'2" / 202 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.7 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX3 levels	12	2	16	7.71	4.02	27.4%	19.0%	—	K 19.3% · BB 18.6% · FIP 3.83
2025	26	MIX2 levels	15	14	54	3.00	2.62	34.5%	9.4%	—	K 30.3% · BB 7.6% · FIP 2.79
2026	27	MIX2 levels	36	21	138	4.10	3.66	24.0%	8.6%	2.9	K 23.6% · BB 8.5% · FIP 3.63
2027PROJ	28	MLBMIL	16	16	96	4.09	4.14	24.3%	9.0%	1.4
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBMIL	14	14	84	4.30	4.38	23.7%	9.2%	1.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBMIL	12	12	71	4.49	4.60	23.0%	9.5%	0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.930First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$1M2031Arb-2$1M2032Arb-3$9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs61

K%58

FB Velo55

Form6.05 ERA (proj 4.09) · K 25.0% (proj 24.3%) · BB 9.5% (proj 9.0%) · last 60d · 19 IP through Oct 27

CompsBen Shields (age 25) · Danny Wirchansky (age 27) · Dylan Dodd (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9199vR 107

ERA4.09

FIP4.14

K%24.3%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%15.3%

Proj IP102

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 102 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5594.9

Whiff%

p6327.3%

p5823.7%

xwOBA vs

p610.301

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.930 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$11M	+$11M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2031	Arb-2	$1M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$9M	—	—	—
Totals		$4M		$23M	+$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	23	23	89	383	86	45	3	100%	3.9	16.6%	13.9%	2.8%	1.2%	3.96	4.10	—
2021	22	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	23	23	89	383	86	45	3	100%	3.9	22.5%	11.7%	10.7%	0.8%	3.96	3.12	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	130	551	157	51	20	93%	4.8	22.1%	10.5%	11.5%	4.5%	3.89	5.04	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	130	551	157	51	20	93%	4.8	28.5%	9.3%	19.2%	3.6%	3.89	3.86	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	123	552	129	72	20	93%	4.6	19.8%	12.1%	7.7%	4.0%	5.05	5.13	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	123	552	129	72	20	93%	4.6	23.4%	13.0%	10.3%	3.6%	5.05	4.87	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	2	16	84	23	16	1	17%	1.4	19.3%	18.6%	0.7%	0.0%	7.71	3.83	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	2	16	84	23	16	1	17%	1.4	19.3%	18.6%	0.7%	0.0%	7.71	3.83	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	2	16	84	23	16	1	17%	1.4	27.4%	19.0%	8.3%	1.2%	7.71	4.02	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	54	223	77	21	5	93%	3.6	30.3%	7.6%	22.7%	2.4%	3.00	2.79	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	54	223	77	21	5	93%	3.6	30.3%	7.6%	22.7%	2.4%	3.00	2.79	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	14	54	223	77	21	5	93%	3.6	34.5%	9.4%	25.1%	2.2%	3.00	2.62	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	21	138	591	142	51	16	58%	3.8	23.6%	8.5%	15.1%	2.6%	4.10	3.63	+3.0
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	21	138	591	142	51	16	58%	3.8	23.6%	8.5%	15.1%	2.6%	4.10	3.63	+3.0
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	21	138	591	142	51	16	58%	3.8	24.0%	8.6%	15.4%	2.7%	4.10	3.66	+2.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			33	19	125	528	125	44	14	58%	3.8	23.7%	8.3%	15.3%	2.7%	4.19	3.61	+2.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	MIL	16	16	96	405	98	36	12	100%	6.0	24.3%	9.0%	15.3%	2.9%	4.09	4.14	+1.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	89	374	89	34	11	100%	5.9	23.7%	9.2%	14.5%	3.0%	4.22	4.30	+1.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	75	316	73	30	10	100%	6.2	23.0%	9.5%	13.5%	3.2%	4.40	4.51	+0.8
2030	31	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	61	259	58	25	9	100%	6.1	22.2%	9.8%	12.4%	3.5%	4.61	4.74	+0.5
2031	32	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	47	199	43	20	7	100%	5.9	21.4%	10.2%	11.2%	3.7%	4.84	5.00	+0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	84	355	84	33	11	100%	6.0	23.7%	9.2%	14.5%	3.2%	4.30	4.38	+1.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	71	300	69	28	10	100%	5.9	23.0%	9.5%	13.5%	3.4%	4.49	4.60	+0.7
2030	31	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	58	245	54	24	9	100%	5.8	22.2%	9.8%	12.4%	3.6%	4.70	4.83	+0.4
2031	32	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	45	190	41	19	7	100%	5.6	21.4%	10.2%	11.2%	3.9%	4.94	5.10	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		76	62	383	1619	373	149	52	82%	5.0	23.1%	9.2%	13.9%	3.2%	4.44	4.07	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	32	200	845	195	78	27	82%	5.0	23.1%	9.2%	13.9%	3.2%	4.44	4.07	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		140	110	550	2384	518	261	72	79%	3.9	21.7%	10.9%	10.8%	3.0%	4.24	4.31	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	40	200	867	188	95	26	79%	3.9	21.7%	10.9%	10.8%	3.0%	4.24	4.31	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANashville Sounds · 14 IPFIP 3.97 → 4.32 (+0.35)K% 27.0% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.98%	—	×0.860	23.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×0.900	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.17%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.49%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.97 → 4.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 48 IPFIP 2.34 → 2.79 (+0.45)K% 35.3% → 30.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.26%	—	×0.860	30.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.42%	—	×0.900	7.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.11%	÷0.984	×1.100	2.35%

Result: FIP 2.34 → 2.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Greenville Drive · 6 IPFIP 4.12 → 5.20 (+1.07)K% 30.3% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.30%	—	×0.770	23.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.15%	—	×1.150	17.42%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.117	×1.250	3.39%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 4.12 → 5.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 11 IPFIP 3.83 → 3.83 (+0.00)K% 22.4% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.41%	—	×0.860	19.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.69%	—	×0.900	18.62%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.996	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.83 → 3.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 89 IPFIP 5.59 → 5.89 (+0.30)K% 21.9% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.93%	—	×0.860	18.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.86%	—	×0.900	13.37%
HR / BF /BF	4.48%	÷1.008	×1.100	4.89%

Result: FIP 5.59 → 5.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 34 IPFIP 2.04 → 2.65 (+0.60)K% 28.1% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.12%	—	×0.810	22.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.03%	—	×1.100	7.73%
HR / BF /BF	0.78%	÷1.048	×1.200	0.89%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 2.04 → 2.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Greenville Drive · 106 IPFIP 3.50 → 4.73 (+1.22)K% 30.2% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.22%	—	×0.770	23.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.89%	—	×1.150	10.22%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷0.996	×1.250	4.18%

Result: FIP 3.50 → 4.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 24 IPFIP 5.44 → 6.44 (+1.00)K% 20.8% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.79%	—	×0.810	16.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.89%	—	×1.100	11.98%
HR / BF /BF	4.95%	÷1.004	×1.200	5.92%

Result: FIP 5.44 → 6.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shane Drohan (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.49	23.1%	13.6%	225	+0.35	—	—	—
Ben Shields L 2024 · 3.23 FIP	25	SP-	3.23	25.3%	8.2%	2.2%	.273	3.02	23.5%	13.3%	43	-0.21	3.02	147	77
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	69
Dylan Dodd L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	17.5%	6.0%	4.2%	.338	3.97	26.5%	21.7%	123	-0.74	3.31	475	67
Hogan Harris L 2024 · 4.46 FIP	27	SP-	4.46	20.3%	11.8%	2.9%	.312	3.42	26.7%	15.1%	150	-1.04	3.09	501	67
Phil Pfeifer L 2019 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP-	3.61	21.9%	8.5%	2.4%	.298	5.65	19.5%	4.7%	35	+2.04	3.61	307	67
T.J. Sikkema L 2024 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	18.5%	6.0%	2.3%	.282	4.10	16.1%	7.2%	87	+0.53	3.57	300	66
Matt Tracy L 2017 · 4.82 FIP	28	SP-	4.82	16.1%	9.4%	3.5%	.325	3.24	13.9%	3.5%	49	-1.58	3.24	298	64
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	64
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	63
Jared Koenig L 2022 · 4.06 FIP	28	SP-	4.06	18.1%	7.4%	2.8%	.308	3.29	23.6%	15.8%	187	-0.77	2.79	475	63
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	62
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	61
John Lamb L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	28	SP	4.64	22.5%	7.2%	4.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	390	61
Chris Narveson L 2010 · 4.00 FIP	28	SP-	4.00	18.9%	7.7%	2.8%	.296	4.01	18.0%	8.8%	162	+0.01	4.00	625	60
Taylor Varnell L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	20.1%	10.3%	3.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	248	60
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	60
Andy Otero L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	24.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.298	4.36	14.5%	5.6%	68	+0.47	2.86	200	60
Zach Logue L 2024 · 3.67 FIP	28	SP-	3.67	19.7%	6.4%	2.6%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	700	59
Bruce Zimmermann L 2023 · 3.09 FIP	28	SP-	3.09	21.3%	6.9%	1.7%	.367	4.06	18.6%	13.0%	293	+0.97	2.91	934	59
Aaron Rozek L 2024 · 3.68 FIP	28	SP-	3.68	16.2%	5.8%	2.2%	.304	4.68	16.9%	9.0%	234	+1.00	3.68	579	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	83	23.3%	9.2%	1.18	4.32
Mike Hartley ('89-'95, 2 WAR*)	1.6	80	24.3%*	9.9%*	1.09*	4.09*
Dave Tobik ('78-'85, 4 WAR*)	2.0	66	24.5%*	9.3%*	1.33*	3.87*
Carlos Torres ('19)	2.5	72	20.7%	8.9%	1.12	4.09
Roy Lee Jackson ('77-'86, 5 WAR*)	2.8	70	21.9%*	8.6%*	1.09*	3.99*
Félix Peña ('21)	1.3	65	23.9%	8.5%	1.35	4.66
Mark Lowe ('16)	1.9	64	20.9%	9.7%	1.10	4.22