Shane Drohan — OGILVIE

Shane Drohan P Milwaukee Brewers

Age 27 LHP 6'2" / 202 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.9 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION132 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8795vR 103

ERA3.80

FIP3.80

K%24.1%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%14.8%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 144 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL5045

CMD4545

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5594.9

Whiff%

p6327.3%

p5923.8%

xwOBA vs

p590.303

CT (12%)

SI (21%)

CU (13%)

SL (21%)

CH (5%)

FB-0.6 (48%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.6M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$12M	+$10M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	23	23	89	383	86	45	3	100%	3.9	16.6%	13.9%	2.8%	1.2%	3.96	4.10	—
2021	22	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	23	23	89	383	86	45	3	100%	3.9	22.5%	11.7%	10.7%	0.8%	3.96	3.12	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	130	551	157	51	20	93%	4.8	22.1%	10.5%	11.5%	4.5%	3.89	5.04	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	130	551	157	51	20	93%	4.8	28.5%	9.3%	19.2%	3.6%	3.89	3.86	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	123	552	129	72	20	93%	4.6	19.3%	12.1%	7.2%	4.0%	5.05	5.18	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	123	552	129	72	20	93%	4.6	19.3%	12.1%	7.2%	4.0%	5.05	5.18	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	123	552	129	72	20	93%	4.6	23.4%	13.0%	10.3%	3.6%	5.05	4.87	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	2	16	84	23	16	1	17%	1.4	18.6%	18.6%	-0.0%	0.0%	7.71	3.89	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	2	16	84	23	16	1	17%	1.4	18.6%	18.6%	-0.0%	0.0%	7.71	3.89	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	2	16	84	23	16	1	17%	1.4	27.4%	19.0%	8.3%	1.2%	7.71	4.02	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	54	223	77	21	5	93%	3.6	29.3%	7.6%	21.7%	2.4%	3.00	2.88	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	54	223	77	21	5	93%	3.6	29.3%	7.6%	21.7%	2.4%	3.00	2.88	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	14	54	223	77	21	5	93%	3.6	34.5%	9.4%	25.1%	2.2%	3.00	2.62	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			29	18	118	501	119	41	14	62%	4.1	23.8%	8.2%	15.6%	2.8%	4.35	3.67	+1.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	32	20	132	564	136	48	16	62%	4.1	23.6%	8.4%	15.2%	2.8%	4.24	3.68	+1.9
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	32	20	132	564	136	48	16	62%	4.1	23.6%	8.4%	15.2%	2.8%	4.24	3.68	+1.9
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	MIL	3	2	14	63	17	7	2	67%	4.6	27.0%	11.1%	15.9%	3.2%	3.29	3.97	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	MIL	29	18	118	501	119	41	14	62%	4.1	23.8%	8.2%	15.6%	2.8%	4.35	3.66	+1.8
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	MIL	29	18	118	501	119	41	14	62%	4.1	23.8%	8.2%	15.6%	2.8%	4.35	3.66	+1.8
ROS	27	MLB MLE	MIL	2	2	13	53	13	5	2	100%	6.3	24.1%	9.2%	14.8%	2.8%	3.80	3.80	+0.2
ROS	27	MLB CTX	MIL	2	2	13	55	13	5	2	100%	6.5	24.1%	9.2%	14.8%	3.0%	3.88	3.88	+0.2
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	144	617	149	53	18	—	—	24.1%	8.6%	15.5%	2.8%	4.20	3.69	+2.1
FULL	27	MLB A+C	MIL	—	—	131	551	149	53	18	—	—	27.0%	9.6%	17.4%	3.2%	4.65	3.79	+1.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	MIL	25	25	150	632	153	58	19	100%	6.0	24.2%	9.2%	14.9%	2.9%	4.19	4.22	+1.2
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIL	24	24	143	604	144	57	19	100%	6.0	23.9%	9.5%	14.5%	3.1%	4.29	4.35	+0.9
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIL	22	22	134	567	134	55	19	100%	6.1	23.6%	9.8%	13.8%	3.3%	4.43	4.53	+0.6
2030	31	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	125	529	123	54	19	100%	6.0	23.2%	10.1%	13.1%	3.5%	4.61	4.73	+0.2
2031	32	MLB MLE	MIL	19	19	116	489	111	52	18	100%	6.1	22.7%	10.5%	12.2%	3.8%	4.82	4.96	-0.1
2032	33	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	106	449	100	49	18	100%	5.9	22.2%	11.0%	11.2%	4.0%	5.05	5.21	-0.4
2027	28	MLB CTX	MIL	24	24	142	600	145	55	18	100%	5.9	24.2%	9.2%	14.9%	3.1%	4.27	4.30	+1.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIL	23	23	136	574	137	54	19	100%	5.9	23.9%	9.5%	14.5%	3.2%	4.37	4.43	+0.9
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIL	21	21	128	540	127	53	19	100%	6.1	23.6%	9.8%	13.8%	3.4%	4.52	4.62	+0.6
2030	31	MLB CTX	MIL	20	20	119	502	116	51	19	100%	6.0	23.2%	10.1%	13.1%	3.7%	4.71	4.83	+0.2
2031	32	MLB CTX	MIL	18	18	110	464	106	49	18	100%	6.1	22.7%	10.5%	12.2%	3.9%	4.92	5.06	-0.1
2032	33	MLB CTX	MIL	17	17	101	426	95	47	18	100%	5.9	22.2%	11.0%	11.2%	4.2%	5.16	5.32	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		154	143	866	3661	858	355	126	93%	5.6	23.4%	9.7%	13.7%	3.4%	4.57	4.24	+6.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	845	198	82	29	93%	5.6	23.4%	9.7%	13.7%	3.4%	4.57	4.24	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		136	109	543	2357	506	258	72	80%	4.0	21.5%	10.9%	10.5%	3.1%	4.27	4.35	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	40	200	868	186	95	27	80%	4.0	21.5%	10.9%	10.5%	3.1%	4.27	4.35	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shane Drohan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.25	25.2%	10.4%	2.9%	—	4.36	23.9%	14.4%	427	+0.11	—	—	—
Ken Waldichuk L 2023 · 5.01 FIP	25	SP-	5.01	20.7%	11.0%	4.1%	.303	5.84	21.0%	6.1%	51	+0.83	3.51	432	72
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	71
Phil Pfeifer L 2019 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP-	3.61	21.9%	8.5%	2.4%	.298	5.65	19.5%	4.7%	35	+2.04	3.61	307	71
Manny Banuelos L 2018 · 3.48 FIP	27	SP-	3.48	23.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.338	5.89	18.7%	5.9%	51	+2.41	2.95	486	70
Cole Ragans L 2023 · 3.14 FIP	25	SP-	3.14	28.1%	10.6%	1.9%	.283	3.24	31.3%	22.0%	283	+0.10	2.48	623	69
Anthony Veneziano L 2023 · 4.25 FIP	25	SP	4.25	18.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.292	4.45	17.1%	7.9%	185	+0.20	3.57	534	68
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	68
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	67
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	67
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	66
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	66
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.1%	5.2%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	66
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	66
Héctor Santiago L 2015 · 4.43 FIP	27	SP	4.43	20.9%	8.5%	3.7%	.245	5.13	19.2%	8.1%	378	+0.70	4.32	713	65
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	65
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	64
Alex Troop L 2023 · 5.03 FIP	27	SP-	5.03	17.8%	10.9%	3.7%	.275	5.10	17.3%	10.5%	43	+0.07	2.93	379	64
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	63
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	63
Nick Additon L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	27	SP-	3.73	14.0%	7.9%	1.5%	.307	4.15	14.4%	7.1%	106	+0.42	3.13	217	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	132	23.7%	10.0%	1.28	4.48
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75