Shane Drohan
P
Milwaukee Brewers
Age 27
LHP
6'2" / 202 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION84 act + 80 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8089vR 99
ERA3.76
FIP3.76
K%24.5%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%14.5%
ROS IP80
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 163 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5494.8
Whiff%
p6627.8%
K%
p5422.9%
xwOBA vs
p770.286
CT (11%)
SI (20%)
CU (14%)
SL (20%)
CH (5%)
FB-0.6 (51%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Salem Red Sox | 23 | 23 | 89 | 383 | 86 | 45 | 3 | 100% | 3.9 | 16.6% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 3.96 | 4.23 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Salem Red Sox | 23 | 23 | 89 | 383 | 86 | 45 | 3 | 100% | 3.9 | 22.5% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 0.8% | 3.96 | 3.12 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 130 | 551 | 157 | 51 | 20 | 93% | 4.8 | 22.1% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 4.5% | 3.89 | 5.05 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 130 | 551 | 157 | 51 | 20 | 93% | 4.8 | 28.5% | 9.3% | 19.2% | 3.6% | 3.89 | 3.86 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 123 | 552 | 129 | 72 | 20 | 93% | 4.6 | 20.1% | 13.8% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 5.05 | 5.30 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 123 | 552 | 129 | 72 | 20 | 93% | 4.6 | 23.4% | 13.0% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 5.05 | 4.87 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 2 | 16 | 84 | 23 | 16 | 1 | 17% | 1.4 | 19.7% | 21.7% | -2.0% | 0.0% | 7.71 | 4.19 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 2 | 16 | 84 | 23 | 16 | 1 | 17% | 1.4 | 27.4% | 19.0% | 8.3% | 1.2% | 7.71 | 4.02 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 14 | 54 | 223 | 77 | 21 | 5 | 93% | 3.6 | 31.0% | 8.8% | 22.2% | 2.4% | 3.00 | 2.91 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 14 | 54 | 223 | 77 | 21 | 5 | 93% | 3.6 | 34.5% | 9.4% | 25.1% | 2.2% | 3.00 | 2.62 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 22 | 11 | 84 | 355 | 84 | 27 | 8 | 50% | 3.8 | 23.1% | 7.7% | 15.4% | 2.3% | 3.12 | 3.39 | +1.6 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIL | 13 | 13 | 80 | 337 | 82 | 34 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 14.5% | 2.7% | 3.76 | 3.76 | +1.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIL | 13 | 13 | 80 | 338 | 83 | 34 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 14.5% | 2.7% | 3.76 | 3.76 | +1.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 163 | 692 | 166 | 61 | 17 | — | — | 24.1% | 8.8% | 15.3% | 2.5% | 3.43 | 3.57 | +3.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 150 | 632 | 166 | 61 | 17 | — | — | 26.3% | 9.6% | 16.7% | 2.7% | 3.74 | 3.56 | +3.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 25 | 25 | 150 | 632 | 154 | 60 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.4% | 9.6% | 14.8% | 2.7% | 4.09 | 4.12 | +2.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 24 | 24 | 143 | 604 | 145 | 58 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.9% | 9.7% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 4.26 | +1.9 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 24 | 24 | 142 | 600 | 146 | 57 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.4% | 9.6% | 14.8% | 2.7% | 4.09 | 4.12 | +2.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 23 | 23 | 136 | 574 | 138 | 55 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.9% | 9.7% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 4.26 | +1.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 76 | 66 | 428 | 1803 | 433 | 166 | 48 | 87% | 5.6 | 24.0% | 9.2% | 14.8% | 2.7% | 3.90 | 3.70 | +8.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 31 | 200 | 843 | 202 | 78 | 22 | 87% | 5.6 | 24.0% | 9.2% | 14.8% | 2.7% | 3.90 | 3.70 | +4.0 | ||
| Career | — | 126 | 100 | 495 | 2148 | 464 | 253 | 66 | 79% | 3.9 | 21.6% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.09 | 4.44 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 40 | 200 | 867 | 187 | 102 | 26 | 79% | 3.9 | 21.6% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.09 | 4.44 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shane Drohan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 26.6% | 11.9% | 2.9% | — | 4.19 | 24.2% | 14.6% | 293 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Alexander L 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 72 |
| Manny Banuelos L 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.46 | 23.8% | 8.9% | 2.2% | .338 | 5.84 | 18.7% | 5.9% | 51 | +2.38 | 2.92 | 486 | 71 |
| Alex Wood L 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.28 | 21.2% | 5.5% | 2.3% | .285 | 3.74 | 24.6% | 18.1% | 187 | +0.46 | 3.05 | 1,009 | 71 |
| Phil Pfeifer L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.74 | 21.9% | 8.5% | 2.6% | .298 | 5.80 | 19.5% | 4.7% | 35 | +2.06 | 3.58 | 307 | 70 |
| David Peterson L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.20 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 3.3% | .356 | 3.54 | 19.9% | 10.7% | 440 | -0.66 | 2.80 | 1,080 | 70 |
| Felix Doubront L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.45 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.58 | 3.39 | 291 | 70 |
| Hogan Harris L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 20.6% | 12.9% | 2.8% | .312 | 3.34 | 26.6% | 15.2% | 121 | -1.19 | 3.14 | 473 | 69 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 4.2% | .246 | 6.63 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.65 | 4.98 | 179 | 68 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 67 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2023 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 67 |
| Chipper Smith L 2024 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 66 |
| Steven Brault L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.35 | 19.8% | 10.1% | 3.0% | .301 | 3.75 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 70 | -0.60 | 3.14 | 691 | 66 |
| James Gillheeney L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 129 | 66 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 4.31 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 300 | -0.22 | 3.88 | 523 | 66 |
| Misael Siverio L 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.00 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.7% | .343 | 4.52 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.52 | 4.00 | 185 | 64 |
| Alex Troop L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.84 | 17.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .275 | 5.64 | 17.3% | 10.5% | 43 | +0.80 | 2.96 | 379 | 64 |
| Nick Additon L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.78 | 14.0% | 7.9% | 1.6% | .307 | 4.62 | 14.4% | 7.1% | 106 | +0.84 | 3.06 | 217 | 64 |
| Eric Wooten L 2024 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 116 | 64 |
| John Anderson L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.02 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 1.9% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 235 | 63 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.39 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 310 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 147 | 25.0% | 10.4% | 1.09 | 4.20 |
| Danny Salazar ('17) | 3 | 142 | 28.1% | 9.0% | 1.12 | 3.79 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Jimmy Nelson ('21) | 5 | 117 | 22.2% | 9.1% | 0.97 | 4.08 |
| Gio Gonzalez ('20) | 6 | 141 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 0.85 | 3.85 |