Shane Drohan
P
Nashville Sounds
+0.3
WAR
Age 27
LHP
6'2" / 202 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.26
FIP4.26
xFIP7.18
SIERA8.03
K%25.4%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%14.8%
IP38
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
OFP—50
STUF5050
CTRL—45
CMD4545
K†6060
CT (21%)
SI (11%)
CU (11%)
SL (17%)
CH (7%)
FB-0.6 (43%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Salem Red Sox | 23 | 23 | 89 | 383 | 86 | 45 | 3 | 16.6% | 13.9% | 1.2% | 3.96 | 4.12 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 27 | 25 | 130 | 551 | 157 | 51 | 20 | 22.1% | 10.5% | 4.5% | 3.89 | 5.04 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 27 | 25 | 123 | 552 | 129 | 72 | 20 | 20.1% | 13.8% | 4.0% | 5.05 | 5.33 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 12 | 2 | 16 | 84 | 23 | 16 | 1 | 19.7% | 21.7% | 0.0% | 7.71 | 4.19 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 15 | 14 | 54 | 223 | 77 | 21 | 5 | 31.0% | 8.8% | 2.3% | 3.00 | 2.89 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 3 | 3 | 11 | 57 | 16 | 10 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.76 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | MIL | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 37 | 17 | 4 | 25.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 46 | 204 | 53 | 27 | 5 | 26.2% | 13.0% | 2.6% | 4.44 | 3.28 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 25.2% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.36 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 38 | 17 | 5 | 24.9% | 11.1% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.40 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 37 | 16 | 4 | 24.6% | 11.1% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 35 | 16 | 4 | 24.4% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.49 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 33 | 16 | 4 | 24.1% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 31 | 15 | 4 | 23.8% | 11.5% | 3.3% | 4.66 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 29 | — | 29 | 124 | 29 | 14 | 4 | 23.4% | 11.7% | 3.4% | 4.76 | 4.83 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 107 | 92 | 423 | 1850 | 398 | 235 | 58 | 21.5% | 12.7% | 3.1% | 4.30 | 4.60 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 43 | 200 | 875 | 188 | 111 | 27 | 21.5% | 12.7% | 3.1% | 4.30 | 4.60 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shane Drohan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 25.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.41 | 24.9% | 13.8% | 108 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Zac Rosscup L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 84 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.84 | 27.4% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .284 | 3.09 | 23.4% | 16.7% | 53 | -0.75 | 3.09 | 145 | 84 |
| Jake Diekman L 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.25 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 82 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.42 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .259 | 5.26 | 16.5% | -3.3% | 54 | +1.84 | 3.42 | 154 | 82 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.16 | 22.8% | 12.2% | 0.8% | .292 | 3.73 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 127 | +0.57 | 2.70 | 175 | 81 |
| Edward Paredes L 2028 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.55 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.08 | 2.37 | 130 | 81 |
| Mike Dunn L 2029 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 79 |
| Chris Nunn L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.29 | 23.0% | 10.9% | 1.4% | .367 | 4.35 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 95 | +1.06 | 3.29 | 180 | 79 |
| Reagan Todd L 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.84 | 25.6% | 12.0% | 2.5% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 122 | 78 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .317 | 4.77 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 269 | 78 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.51 | 24.0% | 11.5% | 1.8% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 206 | 78 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.52 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .242 | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.0% | 63 | +0.92 | 3.52 | 126 | 78 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 25.6% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 128 | 77 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.35 | 21.9% | 11.1% | 1.3% | .368 | 3.62 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 100 | +0.27 | 3.02 | 153 | 77 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2027 · 3.35 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.35 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.5% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 77 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 77 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.29 | 26.6% | 9.7% | 4.0% | .216 | 3.74 | 25.0% | 13.4% | 39 | -0.55 | 2.75 | 176 | 76 |
| Peyton Alford L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.82 | 22.9% | 12.1% | 3.9% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 229 | 76 |
| Jordan Mills L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.30 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.8% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 210 | 76 |
| Conor Lillis-White L 2025 · 3.49 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.49 | 26.8% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.80 | 182 | 76 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.