Sean Newcomb — OGILVIE

Sean Newcomb P Chicago White Sox

Age 33 LHP 6'5" / 255 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 0.7 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION84 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8088vR 96

ERA3.15

FIP3.18

K%22.7%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%14.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 91 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p3623.3%

p5222.6%

xwOBA vs

p580.304

FB (60%)

SL (31%)

SI (21%)

CU (35%)

CT (2%)

CH-1.0 (3%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 6.238 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.4M
Totals		$0.4M		$0.7M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	27	136	575	168	76	5	100%	5.0	22.5%	15.1%	7.4%	1.1%	2.38	3.69	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	27	136	575	168	76	5	100%	5.0	29.2%	13.2%	16.0%	0.9%	2.38	2.78	—
2016	23	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	27	27	140	595	152	71	4	100%	5.2	20.7%	13.1%	7.6%	0.7%	3.86	3.42	—
2016	23	AA RAW	Mississippi Braves	27	27	140	595	152	71	4	100%	5.2	25.5%	11.9%	13.6%	0.7%	3.86	2.82	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	158	705	182	84	13	100%	5.3	24.6%	12.1%	12.4%	1.9%	3.82	3.61	+2.5
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	158	705	182	84	13	100%	5.3	25.8%	11.9%	13.9%	1.8%	3.82	3.46	+2.8
2018	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	31	30	164	696	160	80	18	97%	5.3	23.0%	11.5%	11.5%	2.6%	3.90	4.03	+1.7
2018	25	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	31	30	164	696	160	80	18	97%	5.3	23.0%	11.5%	11.5%	2.6%	3.90	4.04	+1.7
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	7	89	373	85	33	9	12%	1.5	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	2.5%	2.93	3.72	+0.9
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	7	89	373	85	33	9	12%	1.5	22.8%	8.8%	13.9%	2.4%	2.93	3.62	+1.0
2020	27	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	4	4	14	70	10	6	4	100%	3.4	14.3%	8.6%	5.7%	5.7%	11.20	6.12	-0.2
2020	27	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	4	4	14	70	10	6	4	100%	3.4	14.3%	8.6%	5.7%	5.7%	11.20	6.76	-0.3
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	49	214	71	30	2	0%	1.0	31.6%	14.1%	17.5%	1.0%	3.67	2.76	+1.1
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	49	214	71	30	2	0%	1.0	33.2%	14.0%	19.2%	0.9%	3.67	2.57	+1.2
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	2	52	235	59	37	9	6%	1.6	23.5%	16.1%	7.4%	4.0%	6.27	5.36	-0.5
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	2	52	235	59	37	9	6%	1.6	25.1%	15.7%	9.4%	3.8%	6.27	5.23	-0.4
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	4	49	204	62	29	3	15%	1.8	26.1%	14.1%	12.1%	1.7%	3.10	3.58	+0.6
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	4	49	204	62	29	3	15%	1.8	26.1%	14.1%	12.1%	1.7%	3.10	3.58	+0.6
2023	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	4	49	204	62	29	3	15%	1.8	30.4%	14.2%	16.2%	1.5%	3.10	3.14	+0.8
2024	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	1	16	71	13	11	2	9%	1.5	18.3%	15.5%	2.8%	2.8%	5.06	5.06	-0.1
2024	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	1	16	71	13	11	2	9%	1.5	18.3%	15.5%	2.8%	2.8%	5.06	5.06	-0.1
2024	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	1	16	71	13	11	2	9%	1.5	18.3%	15.5%	2.8%	2.8%	5.06	5.16	-0.1
2025	32	MLB MLE	Athletics	48	5	92	391	91	29	5	10%	1.9	23.3%	7.4%	15.9%	1.3%	2.73	2.79	+2.0
2025	32	MLB MLE	Athletics	48	5	92	391	91	29	5	10%	1.9	23.3%	7.4%	15.9%	1.3%	2.73	2.79	+2.0
2025	32	MLB RAW	Athletics	48	5	92	391	91	29	5	10%	1.9	23.3%	7.4%	15.9%	1.3%	2.73	2.78	+2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			277	70	608	2641	607	282	59	25%	2.2	23.0%	10.7%	12.3%	2.2%	4.00	3.76	+5.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	54	5	84	345	78	27	2	9%	1.6	22.6%	7.8%	14.8%	0.6%	2.77	2.49	+2.1
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	54	5	84	345	78	27	2	9%	1.6	22.6%	7.8%	14.8%	0.6%	2.77	2.49	+2.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	33	MLB RAW	CWS	54	5	84	345	78	27	2	9%	1.6	22.6%	7.8%	14.8%	0.6%	2.77	2.50	+2.1
SO FAR	33	MLB RAW	CWS	54	5	84	345	78	27	2	9%	1.6	22.6%	7.8%	14.8%	0.6%	2.77	2.50	+2.1
ROS	33	MLB MLE	CWS	6	0	6	27	6	2	0	0%	1.1	22.7%	7.9%	14.9%	1.8%	3.15	3.18	+0.1
ROS	33	MLB CTX	CWS	6	0	6	25	6	2	0	0%	1.0	22.7%	7.9%	14.9%	1.9%	3.17	3.20	+0.1
2026 TOT	33	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	91	372	84	29	2	—	—	22.6%	7.8%	14.8%	0.7%	2.80	2.54	+2.7
FULL	33	MLB A+C	CWS	—	—	91	383	84	29	2	—	—	22.0%	7.6%	14.4%	0.7%	2.80	2.57	+2.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	CWS	80	0	84	354	77	30	6	0%	1.0	21.9%	8.4%	13.5%	1.7%	3.52	3.65	+0.9
2028	35	MLB MLE	CWS	72	0	75	318	73	26	7	0%	1.0	22.9%	8.1%	14.8%	2.1%	3.64	3.72	+0.8
2027	34	MLB CTX	CWS	80	0	84	355	78	30	6	0%	1.1	21.9%	8.4%	13.5%	1.8%	3.54	3.67	+0.9
2028	35	MLB CTX	CWS	71	0	75	317	73	26	7	0%	1.1	22.9%	8.1%	14.8%	2.1%	3.66	3.74	+0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		435	70	773	3340	763	340	73	16%	1.8	22.9%	10.2%	12.7%	2.2%	3.91	3.65	+8.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		112	18	200	864	197	88	19	16%	1.8	22.9%	10.2%	12.7%	2.2%	3.91	3.65	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		397	142	1043	4474	1037	534	79	36%	2.6	23.2%	11.9%	11.2%	1.8%	3.59	3.62	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	27	200	858	199	102	15	36%	2.6	23.2%	11.9%	11.2%	1.8%	3.59	3.62	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sean Newcomb (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.67	23.0%	7.9%	2.0%	—	3.68	22.4%	14.1%	159	+0.01	—	—	—
Cesár Ramos L 2017 · 4.23 FIP	33	SW	4.23	16.7%	8.3%	2.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	225	71
Roenis Elías L 2022 · 4.06 FIP	33	SW	4.06	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.316	6.66	17.4%	12.2%	21	+2.60	3.15	564	69
Brandon Mann L 2017 · 4.24 FIP	33	SU	4.24	19.8%	11.3%	2.5%	.286	3.59	17.8%	6.4%	52	-0.65	3.59	190	68
David Huff L 2016 · 4.06 FIP	31	SW	4.06	19.5%	4.9%	3.6%	.384	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	158	67
Colt Hynes L 2017 · 3.75 FIP	32	SW	3.75	14.1%	4.6%	2.3%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	152	66
Alejandro Soto L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	33	SW	4.03	17.1%	6.9%	2.7%	.376	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	280	65
Rich Hill L 2015 · 3.27 FIP	35	SW	3.27	26.8%	10.9%	1.9%	.239	3.07	29.0%	21.2%	379	-0.20	2.05	1,030	65
Luke Westphal L 2022 · 4.35 FIP	33	SW	4.35	24.2%	13.4%	2.9%	.302	5.24	15.2%	-1.2%	26	+0.89	2.97	294	64
Wilfredo Ledezma L 2015 · 2.58 FIP	34	SU	2.58	24.2%	9.2%	0.7%	.307	3.30	22.6%	14.3%	71	+0.72	2.58	109	62
Chris Narveson L 2015 · 4.79 FIP	33	SW	4.79	23.6%	8.0%	4.9%	.333	4.59	14.1%	4.5%	193	-0.20	4.59	249	61
Brian Duensing L 2016 · 2.57 FIP	33	SU	2.57	21.3%	4.8%	1.2%	.292	4.40	18.3%	9.1%	113	+1.83	2.57	198	60
Francisco Liriano L 2017 · 4.35 FIP	33	SW	4.35	19.4%	11.6%	2.6%	.322	4.74	19.5%	7.4%	204	+0.39	3.14	650	59
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	59
Phil Coke L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	33	SU	3.89	18.8%	9.1%	2.2%	.373	3.04	18.0%	11.3%	70	-0.85	3.04	101	58
Matt Moore L 2022 · 2.80 FIP	33	SU	2.80	27.3%	11.8%	0.9%	.253	4.47	23.7%	15.3%	101	+1.67	2.80	861	58
Brian Moran L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	33	SU	4.20	21.7%	7.0%	3.7%	.304	3.76	21.0%	14.0%	152	-0.44	1.80	421	58
Jeff Francis L 2015 · 2.83 FIP	34	SW	2.83	19.1%	4.8%	1.4%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	114	58
Zach Phillips L 2019 · 3.67 FIP	32	SU	3.67	19.1%	8.5%	2.0%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	202	57
Heriberto Ruelas L 2015 · 2.95 FIP	33	SU	2.95	19.1%	7.3%	1.0%	.352	3.57	16.2%	8.5%	89	+0.62	2.95	117	57
Nick Ramirez L 2023 · 2.93 FIP	33	SU	2.93	17.7%	5.3%	1.2%	.283	3.59	13.8%	8.1%	50	+0.66	2.93	478	56

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	84	22.6%	8.1%	0.76	3.60
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38