Joe Kelly
P
Los Angeles Dodgers
Age 38
RHP
6'1" / 174 lbs
MLB
peak 1.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 154 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111102vR 93
ERA4.13
FIP4.03
K%28.1%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%17.8%
ROS IP154
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 154 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9098.1
Whiff%
p2922.4%
K%
p6224.5%
xwOBA vs
p220.345
SI (29%)
CU (20%)
FB (54%)
SL (20%)
CH-3.4 (7%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 153 | 662 | 128 | 55 | 16 | 100% | 5.3 | 19.0% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 2.4% | 4.58 | 3.87 | +2.7 |
| 2015 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 153 | 662 | 128 | 55 | 16 | 100% | 5.3 | 19.3% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 2.4% | 4.58 | 3.86 | +2.8 |
| 2016 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 10 | 75 | 324 | 94 | 30 | 6 | 27% | 2.0 | 27.3% | 9.4% | 18.0% | 1.9% | 3.48 | 3.01 | +1.6 |
| 2016 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 10 | 75 | 324 | 94 | 30 | 6 | 27% | 2.0 | 29.0% | 9.3% | 19.8% | 1.9% | 3.48 | 2.83 | +1.8 |
| 2017 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 59 | 241 | 53 | 26 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 1.2% | 2.75 | 3.32 | +0.8 |
| 2017 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 59 | 241 | 53 | 26 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | 2.75 | 3.29 | +0.9 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 73 | 0 | 66 | 285 | 68 | 32 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.9% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 1.4% | 4.39 | 3.27 | +1.1 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 73 | 0 | 66 | 285 | 68 | 32 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.9% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 1.4% | 4.39 | 3.28 | +1.1 |
| 2019 | 31 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 55 | 0 | 51 | 226 | 62 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 27.4% | 8.8% | 18.6% | 2.8% | 4.56 | 3.45 | +0.7 |
| 2019 | 31 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 55 | 0 | 51 | 226 | 62 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 27.4% | 8.8% | 18.6% | 2.7% | 4.56 | 3.37 | +0.7 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 12 | 1 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 8% | 0.8 | 21.4% | 16.7% | 4.8% | 0.0% | 1.80 | 3.40 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 12 | 1 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 8% | 0.8 | 21.4% | 16.7% | 4.8% | 0.0% | 1.80 | 3.40 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 1 | 45 | 188 | 52 | 16 | 3 | 2% | 0.9 | 27.5% | 7.7% | 19.8% | 1.7% | 2.78 | 2.71 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 1 | 45 | 188 | 52 | 16 | 3 | 2% | 0.9 | 27.7% | 8.5% | 19.1% | 1.6% | 2.78 | 2.73 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 1 | 40 | 181 | 56 | 24 | 2 | 2% | 0.9 | 31.2% | 13.5% | 17.6% | 1.1% | 5.62 | 2.80 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 1 | 40 | 181 | 56 | 24 | 2 | 2% | 0.9 | 30.9% | 13.3% | 17.7% | 1.1% | 5.62 | 2.75 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 41 | 174 | 60 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 35.7% | 10.7% | 25.0% | 1.9% | 3.95 | 2.48 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 41 | 174 | 60 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 34.5% | 10.3% | 24.1% | 1.7% | 3.95 | 2.44 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 36 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 1 | 38 | 167 | 41 | 22 | 4 | 2% | 0.9 | 24.5% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 5.02 | 3.99 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 36 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 1 | 38 | 167 | 41 | 22 | 4 | 2% | 0.9 | 24.6% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 2.4% | 5.02 | 4.06 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | MLB | LAD | 155 | 0 | 163 | 687 | 193 | 71 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.1% | 10.3% | 17.8% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.03 | +2.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | LAD | 133 | 0 | 140 | 591 | 159 | 65 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.0% | 11.0% | 15.9% | 3.4% | 4.33 | 4.46 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | LAD | 115 | 0 | 120 | 508 | 131 | 60 | 19 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.8% | 11.7% | 14.1% | 3.8% | 4.67 | 4.89 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 41 | MLB | LAD | 99 | 0 | 104 | 437 | 108 | 54 | 19 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 4.3% | 5.06 | 5.32 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | LAD | 133 | 0 | 140 | 591 | 159 | 65 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.0% | 11.0% | 15.9% | 3.4% | 4.33 | 4.46 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | LAD | 114 | 0 | 120 | 507 | 131 | 59 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.8% | 11.7% | 14.1% | 3.8% | 4.67 | 4.89 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 41 | MLB | LAD | 99 | 0 | 104 | 439 | 108 | 55 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.7% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 4.3% | 5.06 | 5.32 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 754 | 33 | 876 | 3765 | 945 | 407 | 103 | 4% | 1.2 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 14.3% | 2.7% | 4.47 | 3.85 | +15.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 172 | 8 | 200 | 860 | 216 | 93 | 24 | 4% | 1.2 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 14.3% | 2.7% | 4.47 | 3.85 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 443 | 43 | 578 | 2490 | 617 | 246 | 49 | 10% | 1.3 | 24.8% | 9.9% | 14.9% | 2.0% | 4.09 | 3.34 | +14.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 153 | 15 | 200 | 861 | 213 | 85 | 17 | 10% | 1.3 | 24.8% | 9.9% | 14.9% | 2.0% | 4.09 | 3.34 | +4.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joe Kelly (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.03 | 28.1% | 10.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.85 | 25.9% | 14.3% | 364 | +0.82 | — | — | — |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 54 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 51 |
| Ryan Madson R 2025 · 3.65 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.65 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.42 | 240 | 49 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.38 | 18.8% | 7.6% | 3.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 720 | 42 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.04 | 23.2% | 13.3% | 0.4% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 102 | 41 |
| Daniel Bard R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.81 | 20.3% | 19.8% | 1.7% | .224 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 200 | 37 |
| Zack Segovia R 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.36 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 144 | 37 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.61 | 18.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .211 | 4.77 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 28 | +1.16 | 3.10 | 174 | 37 |
| Joe Blanton R 2024 · 4.94 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.94 | 20.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 240 | 31 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.56 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 30 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.08 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 0.9% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 219 | 29 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2024 · 4.74 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.74 | 12.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 126 | 26 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2024 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.52 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.8% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 183 | 25 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.59 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.7% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 174 | 24 |
| Hector Navarro R 2025 · 3.41 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.41 | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 126 | 24 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.66 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 119 | 23 |
| Brad Ziegler R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.88 | 16.4% | 6.2% | 2.5% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.61 | 257 | 20 |
| Luis Ayala R 2026 · 2.99 FIP | 38 | SU | 2.99 | 10.9% | 4.5% | 0.4% | .320 | 3.94 | 15.9% | 4.2% | 14 | +0.95 | 2.99 | 119 | 20 |
| Neal Cotts L 2025 · 3.24 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.24 | 25.5% | 8.0% | 2.3% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 156 | 19 |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.99 | 19.3% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 405 | 19 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 132 | 26.6% | 11.3% | 1.36 | 4.49 |
| Triston McKenzie ('24) | 4 | 105 | 26.0% | 9.4% | 1.52 | 3.94 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Danny Salazar ('17) | 3 | 142 | 28.1% | 9.0% | 1.12 | 3.79 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Josiah Gray ('23) | 3 | 126 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 1.88 | 4.64 |
| Chris Archer ('22) | 6 | 164 | 26.9% | 8.3% | 1.21 | 4.10 |