Joe Kelly — OGILVIE

Joe Kelly P Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 38 RHP 6'1" / 174 lbs MLB peak 1.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109101vR 93

ERA4.11

FIP4.00

K%28.1%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%17.8%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.1

Whiff%

p2922.4%

p6224.5%

xwOBA vs

p220.345

SI (29%)

CU (20%)

FB (54%)

SL (20%)

CH-3.4 (7%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	153	662	128	55	16	100%	5.3	19.0%	8.4%	10.7%	2.5%	4.58	3.92	+1.8
2015	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	153	662	128	55	16	100%	5.3	19.3%	8.3%	11.0%	2.4%	4.58	3.86	+1.9
2016	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	10	75	324	94	30	6	27%	2.0	27.3%	9.4%	18.0%	1.9%	3.48	3.03	+1.4
2016	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	10	75	324	94	30	6	27%	2.0	29.0%	9.3%	19.8%	1.9%	3.48	2.83	+1.6
2017	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	59	241	53	26	3	0%	1.1	21.8%	10.9%	10.9%	1.3%	2.75	3.35	+0.8
2017	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	59	241	53	26	3	0%	1.1	22.0%	10.8%	11.2%	1.2%	2.75	3.29	+0.9
2018	30	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	73	0	66	285	68	32	4	0%	0.9	23.9%	11.2%	12.6%	1.4%	4.39	3.30	+1.0
2018	30	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	73	0	66	285	68	32	4	0%	0.9	23.9%	11.2%	12.6%	1.4%	4.39	3.28	+1.0
2019	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	55	0	51	226	62	20	6	0%	0.9	27.4%	8.8%	18.6%	2.5%	4.56	3.30	+0.8
2019	31	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	55	0	51	226	62	20	6	0%	0.9	27.4%	8.8%	18.6%	2.7%	4.56	3.37	+0.7
2020	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	12	1	10	42	9	7	0	8%	0.8	21.4%	16.7%	4.8%	0.0%	1.80	3.40	+0.1
2020	32	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	12	1	10	42	9	7	0	8%	0.8	21.4%	16.7%	4.8%	0.0%	1.80	3.40	+0.1
2021	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	1	45	188	52	16	3	2%	0.9	27.5%	7.7%	19.8%	1.6%	2.78	2.62	+1.0
2021	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	1	45	188	52	16	3	2%	0.9	27.7%	8.5%	19.1%	1.6%	2.78	2.73	+1.0
2022	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	40	181	56	24	2	2%	0.9	31.2%	13.5%	17.6%	1.2%	5.62	2.82	+0.8
2022	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	1	40	181	56	24	2	2%	0.9	30.9%	13.3%	17.7%	1.1%	5.62	2.75	+0.9
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	41	174	60	18	3	0%	0.9	35.7%	10.7%	25.0%	1.7%	3.95	2.38	+1.1
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	41	174	60	18	3	0%	0.9	35.7%	10.7%	25.0%	1.7%	3.95	2.38	+1.1
2023	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	41	174	60	18	3	0%	0.9	34.5%	10.3%	24.1%	1.7%	3.95	2.44	+1.0
2024	36	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	1	38	167	41	22	4	2%	0.9	24.5%	10.5%	14.0%	2.7%	5.02	3.83	+0.3
2024	36	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	1	38	167	41	22	4	2%	0.9	24.5%	10.5%	14.0%	2.7%	5.02	3.83	+0.3
2024	36	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	1	38	167	41	22	4	2%	0.9	24.6%	13.2%	11.4%	2.4%	5.02	4.06	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			407	33	512	2229	547	228	45	8%	1.3	24.5%	10.2%	14.3%	2.0%	4.34	3.44	+6.8
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	38	MLB	LAD	13	0	14	59	17	6	2	0%	1.1	28.1%	10.3%	17.8%	2.9%	4.11	4.00	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	39	MLB MLE	LAD	133	0	140	591	159	65	20	0%	1.1	27.0%	11.0%	15.9%	3.3%	4.30	4.43	+0.2
2028	40	MLB MLE	LAD	115	0	120	508	131	60	19	0%	1.0	25.8%	11.7%	14.1%	3.8%	4.64	4.86	-0.4
2027	39	MLB CTX	LAD	133	0	140	591	159	65	20	0%	1.1	27.0%	11.0%	15.9%	3.3%	4.30	4.43	+0.2
2028	40	MLB CTX	LAD	114	0	120	507	131	59	19	0%	1.1	25.8%	11.7%	14.1%	3.8%	4.64	4.86	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		655	33	772	3328	838	353	84	5%	1.2	25.2%	10.6%	14.6%	2.5%	4.38	3.70	+7.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		170	9	200	862	217	91	22	5%	1.2	25.2%	10.6%	14.6%	2.5%	4.38	3.70	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		443	43	578	2490	617	246	48	10%	1.3	24.8%	9.9%	14.9%	1.9%	4.09	3.32	+6.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		153	15	200	861	213	85	17	10%	1.3	24.8%	9.9%	14.9%	1.9%	4.09	3.32	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.00	28.1%	10.3%	2.9%	—	4.63	26.4%	15.1%	260	+0.63	—	—	—
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	54
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	51
Ryan Madson R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	37	SU	3.49	23.4%	6.1%	2.9%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	1.42	240	48
Ervin Santana R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	38	SU	4.40	18.8%	7.6%	3.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	720	42
Manny Acosta R 2019 · 3.08 FIP	38	SU	3.08	23.2%	13.3%	0.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	102	41
Daniel Bard R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	38	SU	4.95	20.3%	19.8%	1.9%	.224	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	200	37
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	37
Peter Moylan R 2017 · 3.63 FIP	38	SU	3.63	18.9%	9.1%	1.8%	.211	4.77	17.8%	6.2%	28	+1.14	3.11	174	37
Joe Blanton R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	36	SU	4.94	20.0%	5.6%	5.1%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	240	31
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	29
Santiago Casilla R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	38	SU	4.14	16.8%	15.2%	1.0%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	219	29
Ronald Belisario R 2019 · 4.16 FIP	36	SU	4.16	12.7%	3.9%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.10	126	27
Chien-Ming Wang R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	36	SU	4.53	13.0%	7.8%	2.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	183	25
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	25
Matt Belisle R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	38	SU	4.60	15.4%	6.2%	3.7%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	174	24
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	23
Brad Ziegler R 2018 · 4.03 FIP	38	SU	4.03	16.4%	6.2%	2.8%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	2.63	257	20
Luis Ayala R 2016 · 3.03 FIP	38	SU	3.03	10.9%	4.5%	0.5%	.320	4.00	15.9%	4.2%	14	+0.97	3.03	119	20
Neal Cotts L 2017 · 3.21 FIP	37	SU	3.21	25.5%	8.0%	2.3%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	156	19
Wilfredo Ledezma L 2017 · 3.35 FIP	36	SU	3.35	26.7%	8.3%	2.7%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.58	109	15

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	141	27.1%	11.0%	1.27	4.32
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Luis Garcia ('23)	1.7	113	25.5%	7.7%	1.19	3.63
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68