Joe Kelly

P Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 39 RHP 6'1" / 174 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	34	MIX2 levels	46	1	40	5.62	2.75	30.9%	13.3%	0.9	K 31.2% · BB 13.5% · FIP 2.82
2023	35	MIX2 levels	44	0	41	3.95	2.44	34.5%	10.3%	1.0	K 35.7% · BB 10.7% · FIP 2.38
2024	36	MIX3 levels	42	1	38	5.02	4.06	24.6%	13.2%	0.2	K 24.5% · BB 10.5% · FIP 3.83
2025	37	No MLB games played
2026	38	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	39	MLBLAD	147	0	154	4.26	4.19	25.1%	9.4%	0.7
2028PROJ	40	MLBLAD	93	0	98	4.48	4.62	24.0%	10.1%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.1 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

FB Velo90

K%62

xwOBA vs22

CompsTakashi Saito (age 39) · Keiichi Yabu (age 39) · Gaudencio Aguirre (age 42)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.26

FIP4.19

K%25.1%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%15.7%

Proj IP154

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 154 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.1

Whiff%

p2922.4%

p6224.5%

xwOBA vs

p220.345

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2012	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	24	16	107	457	75	34	10	67%	4.5	16.4%	7.4%	9.0%	2.4%	3.53	3.95	+1.9
2012	24	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	24	16	107	457	75	34	10	67%	4.5	16.4%	7.4%	9.0%	2.2%	3.53	3.87	+2.0
2013	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	37	15	124	532	79	40	10	41%	3.4	14.8%	7.5%	7.3%	2.0%	2.69	3.91	+0.9
2013	25	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	37	15	124	532	79	40	10	41%	3.4	14.8%	7.5%	7.3%	1.9%	2.69	3.84	+1.0
2014	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	17	17	96	415	66	42	8	100%	5.7	15.9%	10.1%	5.8%	2.0%	4.20	4.12	+1.5
2014	26	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	17	17	96	415	66	42	8	100%	5.7	15.9%	10.1%	5.8%	1.9%	4.20	4.12	+1.5
2015	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	153	662	128	55	16	100%	5.3	19.0%	8.4%	10.7%	2.5%	4.58	3.92	+2.7
2015	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	153	662	128	55	16	100%	5.3	19.3%	8.3%	11.0%	2.4%	4.58	3.86	+2.8
2016	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	10	75	324	94	30	6	27%	2.0	27.3%	9.4%	18.0%	1.9%	3.48	3.03	+1.4
2016	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	10	75	324	94	30	6	27%	2.0	29.0%	9.3%	19.8%	1.9%	3.48	2.83	+1.6
2017	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	59	241	53	26	3	0%	1.1	21.8%	10.9%	10.9%	1.3%	2.75	3.35	+0.8
2017	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	59	241	53	26	3	0%	1.1	22.0%	10.8%	11.2%	1.2%	2.75	3.29	+0.9
2018	30	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	73	0	66	285	68	32	4	0%	0.9	23.9%	11.2%	12.6%	1.4%	4.39	3.30	+1.0
2018	30	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	73	0	66	285	68	32	4	0%	0.9	23.9%	11.2%	12.6%	1.4%	4.39	3.28	+1.0
2019	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	55	0	51	226	62	20	6	0%	0.9	27.4%	8.8%	18.6%	2.5%	4.56	3.30	+0.8
2019	31	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	55	0	51	226	62	20	6	0%	0.9	27.4%	8.8%	18.6%	2.7%	4.56	3.37	+0.7
2020	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	12	1	10	42	9	7	0	8%	0.8	21.4%	16.7%	4.8%	0.0%	1.80	3.40	+0.1
2020	32	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	12	1	10	42	9	7	0	8%	0.8	21.4%	16.7%	4.8%	0.0%	1.80	3.40	+0.1
2021	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	1	45	188	52	16	3	2%	0.9	27.5%	7.7%	19.8%	1.6%	2.78	2.62	+1.0
2021	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	1	45	188	52	16	3	2%	0.9	27.7%	8.5%	19.1%	1.6%	2.78	2.73	+1.0
2022	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	40	181	56	24	2	2%	0.9	31.2%	13.5%	17.6%	1.2%	5.62	2.82	+0.8
2022	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	1	40	181	56	24	2	2%	0.9	30.9%	13.3%	17.7%	1.1%	5.62	2.75	+0.9
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	41	174	60	18	3	0%	0.9	35.7%	10.7%	25.0%	1.7%	3.95	2.38	+1.1
2023	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	41	174	60	18	3	0%	0.9	34.5%	10.3%	24.1%	1.7%	3.95	2.44	+1.0
2024	36	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	1	38	167	41	22	4	2%	0.9	24.5%	10.5%	14.0%	2.7%	5.02	3.83	+0.3
2024	36	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	1	38	167	41	22	4	2%	0.9	24.5%	10.5%	14.0%	2.7%	5.02	3.83	+0.3
2024	36	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	1	38	167	41	22	4	2%	0.9	24.6%	13.2%	11.4%	2.4%	5.02	4.06	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			485	81	839	3633	767	344	73	17%	1.7	21.1%	9.5%	11.6%	2.0%	3.98	3.63	+9.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	39	MLB	LAD	147	0	154	650	163	61	19	0%	1.0	25.1%	9.4%	15.7%	3.0%	4.26	4.19	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	40	MLB MLE	LAD	94	0	98	416	100	42	14	0%	1.0	24.0%	10.1%	13.9%	3.4%	4.48	4.62	-0.1
2028	40	MLB CTX	LAD	93	0	98	414	99	42	14	0%	1.1	24.0%	10.1%	13.9%	3.4%	4.48	4.62	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		579	81	938	4049	867	386	87	14%	1.6	21.4%	9.5%	11.9%	2.2%	4.03	3.68	+9.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		123	17	200	864	185	82	19	14%	1.6	21.4%	9.5%	11.9%	2.2%	4.03	3.68	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		521	91	906	3894	837	362	78	17%	1.7	21.5%	9.3%	12.2%	2.0%	3.85	3.56	+9.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		115	20	200	860	185	80	17	17%	1.7	21.5%	9.3%	12.2%	2.0%	3.85	3.56	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2016 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 35 IPFIP 1.21 → 1.62 (+0.41)K% 33.8% → 29.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.82%	—	×0.880	29.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.41%	—	×1.050	4.63%
HR / BF /BF	0.74%	÷0.994	×1.100	0.81%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 1.21 → 1.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 19 IPFIP 2.82 → 3.18 (+0.36)K% 24.0% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.00%	—	×0.880	21.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.050	8.40%
HR / BF /BF	1.33%	÷1.012	×1.100	1.45%

Result: FIP 2.82 → 3.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

	Profile at Match Age	Next 3 Yrs	Career
Joe Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.62	24.0%	13.9%	98	+0.43	—	—	—
Takashi Saito R 2009 · 3.86 FIP	39	SU	3.86	21.7%	9.6%	2.5%	.277	3.07	26.7%	20.0%	93	-0.79	1.50	338	50
Keiichi Yabu R 2008 · 3.48 FIP	39	SU	3.48	15.9%	9.3%	1.0%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	126	46
Gaudencio Aguirre R 2015 · 3.25 FIP	42	SU	3.25	14.8%	8.6%	0.6%	.293	3.88	14.9%	6.8%	75	+0.63	3.25	123	39
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	34
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	30
Koji Uehara R 2014 · 3.05 FIP	39	SU	3.05	32.1%	3.2%	4.1%	.272	3.11	30.7%	25.5%	130	+0.06	1.28	481	24
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	23
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	21

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.5	78	21.9%	9.7%	0.88	4.06
Wade Davis ('21)	5.0	83	22.1%	9.3%	0.95	3.94
Jim Gott ('82-'95, 10 WAR*)	5.6	93	23.6%*	9.7%*	0.91*	4.20*
Don Aase ('77-'90, 12 WAR*)	5.5	92	20.7%*	9.6%*	0.94*	4.14*
Bob McClure ('75-'93, 7 WAR*)	5.8	83	20.5%*	9.9%*	1.04*	4.20*
Brandon Morrow ('18)	4.3	78	24.0%	10.1%	0.92	3.96
David Phelps ('22)	3.4	76	22.9%	9.4%	0.94	3.80

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.62	24.0%	13.9%	98	+0.43	—	—	—
Takashi Saito R 2009 · 3.86 FIP	39	SU	3.86	21.7%	9.6%	2.5%	.277	3.07	26.7%	20.0%	93	-0.79	1.50	338	50
Keiichi Yabu R 2008 · 3.48 FIP	39	SU	3.48	15.9%	9.3%	1.0%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	126	46
Gaudencio Aguirre R 2015 · 3.25 FIP	42	SU	3.25	14.8%	8.6%	0.6%	.293	3.88	14.9%	6.8%	75	+0.63	3.25	123	39
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	34
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	30
Koji Uehara R 2014 · 3.05 FIP	39	SU	3.05	32.1%	3.2%	4.1%	.272	3.11	30.7%	25.5%	130	+0.06	1.28	481	24
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	23
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	21

Joe Kelly

Contract

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Path Comps

Career Comps