Joe Kelly
P
Los Angeles Dodgers
+0.3
WAR
Age 38
RHP
6'1" / 174 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.26
FIP4.16
xFIP4.22
SIERA3.87
K%25.2%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%15.4%
IP24
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL3535
CMD4545
K†6565
FB Velo
p9098.1
Whiff%
p2922.4%
K%
p6224.5%
xwOBA vs
p220.345
SI (29%)
CU (20%)
FB (54%)
SL (20%)
CH-3.4 (7%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 29 | 29 | 153 | 662 | 128 | 55 | 16 | 19.0% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 4.58 | 3.97 | +2.3 |
| 2016 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 37 | 10 | 75 | 324 | 94 | 30 | 6 | 27.3% | 9.4% | 1.9% | 3.48 | 3.00 | +1.8 |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 55 | 0 | 59 | 241 | 53 | 26 | 3 | 21.8% | 10.9% | 1.4% | 2.75 | 3.43 | +1.0 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 73 | 0 | 66 | 285 | 68 | 32 | 4 | 23.9% | 11.2% | 1.4% | 4.39 | 3.26 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 31 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 55 | 0 | 51 | 226 | 62 | 20 | 6 | 27.4% | 8.8% | 2.5% | 4.56 | 3.25 | +1.0 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 12 | 1 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.80 | — | — |
| 2021 | 33 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 50 | 1 | 45 | 188 | 52 | 16 | 3 | 27.5% | 7.7% | 1.4% | 2.78 | 2.50 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 34 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 46 | 1 | 40 | 181 | 56 | 24 | 2 | 31.2% | 13.5% | 1.2% | 5.62 | 2.86 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 35 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 44 | 0 | 41 | 174 | 60 | 18 | 3 | 35.7% | 10.7% | 1.7% | 3.95 | 2.39 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 36 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 42 | 1 | 38 | 167 | 41 | 22 | 4 | 24.5% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 5.02 | 3.83 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | MLB | LAD | 22 | — | 22 | 93 | 26 | 9 | 3 | 28.2% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 3.91 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | LAD | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 27.4% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.10 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 443 | 43 | 578 | 2490 | 617 | 246 | 48 | 24.8% | 9.9% | 1.9% | 4.09 | 3.33 | +12.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 153 | 15 | 200 | 861 | 213 | 85 | 17 | 24.8% | 9.9% | 1.9% | 4.09 | 3.33 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joe Kelly (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.91 | 28.2% | 9.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.10 | 27.4% | 17.3% | 20 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Madson R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.47 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 2.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.43 | 240 | 66 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 65 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 62 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.07 | 23.2% | 13.3% | 0.4% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 102 | 58 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2024 · 4.34 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.34 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 138 | 55 |
| Daniel Bard R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 38 | SU | 5.03 | 20.3% | 19.8% | 2.1% | .224 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.45 | 200 | 50 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.32 | 18.8% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 720 | 49 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.65 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 49 |
| Zack Segovia R 2024 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.52 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 2.2% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 144 | 46 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.58 | 18.9% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .211 | 4.94 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 28 | +1.36 | 3.11 | 174 | 46 |
| Joe Blanton R 2024 · 5.01 FIP | 36 | SU | 5.01 | 20.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 240 | 46 |
| Logan Duran R 2025 · 3.65 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.65 | 15.5% | 8.9% | 1.3% | .427 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 187 | 43 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.16 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 1.0% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 219 | 43 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2024 · 4.18 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.18 | 12.7% | 3.9% | 3.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 126 | 41 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.33 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.2% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 174 | 41 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.48 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 119 | 39 |
| Hector Navarro R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.47 | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.1% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 126 | 36 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2024 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.56 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.9% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 183 | 34 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.01 | 14.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.01 | 211 | 34 |
| Lorenzo Barcelo R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.38 | 12.8% | 1.1% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 199 | 34 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.