Keegan Akin
P
Baltimore Orioles
Age 31
LHP
6'0" / 235 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2026
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 94103vR 112
ERA3.91
FIP4.08
K%21.5%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%12.6%
ROS IP15
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3893.7
Whiff%
p1019.3%
K%
p1014.9%
xwOBA vs
p640.298
CH+5.7 (20%)
SL+1.4 (29%)
FB-6.3 (51%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Frederick Keys | 21 | 21 | 100 | 423 | 111 | 46 | 12 | 100% | 4.8 | 20.2% | 12.5% | 7.7% | 2.4% | 4.14 | 4.30 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Frederick Keys | 21 | 21 | 100 | 423 | 111 | 46 | 12 | 100% | 4.8 | 26.2% | 10.9% | 15.4% | 2.8% | 4.14 | 3.82 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 25 | 25 | 138 | 573 | 142 | 58 | 16 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.1% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 3.27 | 4.46 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 25 | 25 | 138 | 573 | 142 | 58 | 16 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.8% | 10.1% | 14.7% | 2.8% | 3.27 | 3.81 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 25 | 24 | 112 | 503 | 131 | 61 | 10 | 96% | 4.5 | 22.9% | 12.7% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.73 | 4.32 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 25 | 24 | 112 | 503 | 131 | 61 | 10 | 96% | 4.5 | 26.0% | 12.1% | 13.9% | 2.0% | 4.73 | 3.55 | — |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 8 | 6 | 26 | 116 | 35 | 10 | 3 | 75% | 3.2 | 30.2% | 8.6% | 21.6% | 2.4% | 4.56 | 2.96 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 8 | 6 | 26 | 116 | 35 | 10 | 3 | 75% | 3.2 | 30.2% | 8.6% | 21.6% | 2.6% | 4.56 | 3.06 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 18 | 97 | 437 | 87 | 40 | 18 | 72% | 3.9 | 19.2% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 6.68 | 4.67 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 18 | 97 | 437 | 87 | 40 | 18 | 72% | 3.9 | 19.9% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 4.1% | 6.68 | 4.96 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 45 | 1 | 82 | 329 | 77 | 20 | 10 | 2% | 1.8 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 17.3% | 2.8% | 3.20 | 3.45 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 45 | 1 | 82 | 329 | 77 | 20 | 10 | 2% | 1.8 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 17.3% | 3.0% | 3.20 | 3.54 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 3 | 33 | 145 | 42 | 6 | 3 | 10% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 4.5% | 19.6% | 1.7% | 6.06 | 2.54 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 3 | 33 | 145 | 42 | 6 | 3 | 10% | 1.1 | 29.0% | 4.1% | 24.8% | 2.1% | 6.06 | 2.27 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 66 | 0 | 79 | 313 | 97 | 18 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 31.0% | 5.8% | 25.2% | 2.7% | 3.32 | 2.68 | +2.1 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 66 | 0 | 79 | 313 | 97 | 18 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 31.0% | 5.8% | 25.2% | 2.9% | 3.32 | 2.81 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 67 | 4 | 66 | 280 | 62 | 31 | 10 | 6% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 3.39 | 4.61 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 67 | 4 | 66 | 280 | 62 | 31 | 10 | 6% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 3.6% | 3.39 | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 28 | 2 | 29 | 130 | 22 | 10 | 4 | 7% | 1.0 | 14.9% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 5.22 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | BAL | 14 | 0 | 15 | 62 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 8.9% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 3.91 | 4.08 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | BAL | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 8.9% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 3.91 | 4.08 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 44 | 192 | 35 | 16 | 6 | — | — | 18.4% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.78 | 4.22 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 40 | 169 | 35 | 16 | 6 | — | — | 20.9% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 3.5% | 5.26 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 50 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 48 | 0 | 50 | 213 | 44 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 4.75 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 50 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 43 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 4.75 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 369 | 30 | 514 | 2186 | 501 | 180 | 71 | 8% | 1.4 | 22.9% | 8.2% | 14.7% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 3.99 | +8.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 144 | 12 | 200 | 852 | 195 | 70 | 28 | 8% | 1.4 | 22.9% | 8.2% | 14.7% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 3.99 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 340 | 104 | 761 | 3249 | 725 | 318 | 94 | 31% | 2.2 | 22.3% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.04 | +12.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 89 | 27 | 200 | 854 | 190 | 83 | 25 | 31% | 2.2 | 22.3% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Keegan Akin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.25 | 24.9% | 9.2% | 3.1% | — | 4.78 | 21.0% | 11.5% | 106 | +0.53 | — | — | — |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2024 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 74 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.70 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.51 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 33 | +0.81 | 3.21 | 241 | 69 |
| Chris Narveson L 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.83 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.57 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.26 | 4.40 | 249 | 69 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.73 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 223 | 67 |
| David Huff L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.00 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% | .384 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 158 | 67 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.48 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.2% | .281 | 2.35 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.13 | 2.35 | 306 | 67 |
| Phil Coke L 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 67 |
| Craig Breslow L 2029 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.86 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .279 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.35 | 4.22 | 159 | 67 |
| Jason Gurka L 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.09 | 15.5% | 7.6% | 4.3% | .382 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 183 | 66 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.79 | 22.7% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .351 | 5.19 | 21.5% | 14.2% | 18 | +1.40 | 2.29 | 130 | 66 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.48 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 172 | 65 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.99 | 16.6% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 244 | 65 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.22 | 21.3% | 7.0% | 3.7% | .227 | 3.50 | 21.4% | 16.9% | 187 | -0.72 | 2.22 | 405 | 65 |
| Brian Moran L 2025 · 3.29 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.29 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .269 | 3.00 | 25.5% | 18.5% | 99 | -0.29 | 1.67 | 421 | 65 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.72 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% | .311 | 4.39 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.72 | 181 | 65 |
| Justin Marks L 2024 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.84 | 18.7% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 324 | 64 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.29 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 64 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.85 | 22.3% | 4.8% | 3.7% | .353 | 3.52 | 14.1% | 9.5% | 56 | -0.33 | 3.44 | 152 | 63 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.13 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 2.0% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 145 | 63 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 20.7% | 6.6% | 3.4% | .316 | 3.48 | 25.6% | 21.2% | 121 | -0.56 | 1.52 | 350 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 48 | 22.1% | 9.4% | 1.29 | 4.46 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |