Keegan Akin

P Baltimore Orioles

Age 32 LHP 6'0" / 235 lbs MLB ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBRPIL-6040-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MLBBAL	66	0	79	3.32	2.81	31.0%	5.8%	1.6
2025	30	MIX3 levels	67	4	66	3.39	4.59	22.1%	11.1%	-0.0	K 22.0% · BB 11.6% · FIP 4.67
2026	31	MIX2 levels	28	2	29	5.22	4.40	16.9%	7.7%	0.1	K 14.9% · BB 7.9% · FIP 4.22
2027PROJ	32	MLBBAL	26	0	27	4.20	4.53	21.2%	9.1%	0.0
2028PROJ	33	MLBBAL	26	0	27	4.57	4.81	20.3%	9.6%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.7 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs64

FB Velo38

K%10

CompsRaul Valdes (age 32) · Jeremy Bleich (age 32) · Hideki Okajima (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA4.20

FIP4.53

K%21.2%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%12.0%

Proj IP27

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3893.7

Whiff%

p1019.3%

p1014.9%

xwOBA vs

p640.298

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	22	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	21	21	100	423	111	46	12	100%	4.8	20.2%	12.5%	7.7%	2.9%	4.14	4.55	—
2017	22	A+ RAW	Frederick Keys	21	21	100	423	111	46	12	100%	4.8	26.2%	10.9%	15.4%	2.8%	4.14	3.82	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	25	25	138	573	142	58	16	100%	5.5	20.1%	11.1%	8.9%	3.2%	3.27	4.55	—
2018	23	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	25	25	138	573	142	58	16	100%	5.5	24.8%	10.1%	14.7%	2.8%	3.27	3.81	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	25	24	112	503	131	61	10	96%	4.5	22.9%	12.7%	10.2%	2.5%	4.73	4.13	—
2019	24	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	25	24	112	503	131	61	10	96%	4.5	26.0%	12.1%	13.9%	2.0%	4.73	3.55	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	8	6	26	116	35	10	3	75%	3.2	30.2%	8.6%	21.6%	2.3%	4.56	2.93	+0.8
2020	25	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	8	6	26	116	35	10	3	75%	3.2	30.2%	8.6%	21.6%	2.6%	4.56	3.06	+0.7
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	18	97	437	87	40	18	72%	3.9	19.2%	9.1%	10.1%	3.6%	6.68	4.61	+0.9
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	18	97	437	87	40	18	72%	3.9	19.9%	9.2%	10.8%	4.1%	6.68	4.96	+0.5
2022	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	45	1	82	329	77	20	10	2%	1.8	23.4%	6.1%	17.3%	3.1%	3.20	3.57	+1.0
2022	27	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	45	1	82	329	77	20	10	2%	1.8	23.4%	6.1%	17.3%	3.0%	3.20	3.54	+1.0
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	3	33	145	42	6	3	10%	1.1	24.1%	4.5%	19.6%	1.8%	6.06	2.62	+0.8
2023	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	3	33	145	42	6	3	10%	1.1	29.0%	4.1%	24.8%	2.1%	6.06	2.27	+0.9
2024	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	66	0	79	313	97	18	9	0%	1.2	31.0%	5.8%	25.2%	2.9%	3.32	2.80	+1.6
2024	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	66	0	79	313	97	18	9	0%	1.2	31.0%	5.8%	25.2%	2.9%	3.32	2.80	+1.6
2024	29	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	66	0	79	313	97	18	9	0%	1.2	31.0%	5.8%	25.2%	2.9%	3.32	2.81	+1.6
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	67	4	66	280	62	31	10	6%	1.0	22.0%	11.6%	10.4%	3.6%	3.39	4.67	-0.1
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	67	4	66	280	62	31	10	6%	1.0	22.0%	11.6%	10.4%	3.6%	3.39	4.67	-0.1
2025	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	67	4	66	280	62	31	10	6%	1.0	22.1%	11.1%	11.1%	3.6%	3.39	4.59	-0.0
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	2	29	130	22	10	4	7%	1.0	14.9%	7.9%	7.0%	2.5%	5.22	4.22	+0.1
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	2	29	130	22	10	4	7%	1.0	14.9%	7.9%	7.0%	2.5%	5.22	4.22	+0.1
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	2	29	130	22	10	4	7%	1.0	16.9%	7.7%	9.2%	3.1%	5.22	4.40	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			255	30	393	1679	394	132	54	12%	1.5	23.5%	7.9%	15.6%	3.2%	4.55	3.89	+3.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	BAL	26	0	27	114	24	10	3	0%	1.0	21.2%	9.1%	12.0%	3.1%	4.20	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	BAL	25	0	27	112	23	11	4	0%	1.1	20.3%	9.6%	10.8%	3.3%	4.57	4.81	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	BAL	26	0	27	114	23	11	4	0%	1.0	20.3%	9.6%	10.8%	3.3%	4.57	4.81	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		280	30	420	1791	417	143	58	11%	1.5	23.3%	8.0%	15.3%	3.2%	4.55	3.91	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		134	14	200	853	199	68	28	11%	1.5	23.3%	8.0%	15.3%	3.2%	4.55	3.91	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		340	104	761	3249	725	318	96	31%	2.2	22.3%	9.8%	12.5%	3.0%	4.28	4.08	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		89	27	200	854	190	83	25	31%	2.2	22.3%	9.8%	12.5%	3.0%	4.28	4.08	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAANorfolk Tides · 8 IPFIP 1.15 → 1.96 (+0.81)K% 53.8% → 46.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	53.85%	—	×0.860	46.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.85%	—	×0.900	3.46%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷0.995	×1.100	4.25%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 1.15 → 1.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAANorfolk Tides · 112 IPFIP 3.53 → 4.13 (+0.60)K% 26.0% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.04%	—	×0.880	22.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.13%	—	×1.050	12.73%
HR / BF /BF	1.99%	÷0.889	×1.100	2.46%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 3.53 → 4.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AABowie Baysox · 138 IPFIP 3.82 → 4.55 (+0.73)K% 24.8% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.78%	—	×0.810	20.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.12%	—	×1.100	11.13%
HR / BF /BF	2.79%	÷1.060	×1.200	3.16%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 3.82 → 4.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Frederick Keys · 100 IPFIP 3.82 → 4.55 (+0.73)K% 26.2% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.24%	—	×0.770	20.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.87%	—	×1.150	12.51%
HR / BF /BF	2.84%	÷1.238	×1.250	2.86%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 148).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keegan Akin (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.81	20.3%	10.8%	27	+0.28	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	71
Jeremy Bleich L 2019 · 4.41 FIP	32	SW	4.41	20.1%	7.0%	3.9%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	241	71
Hideki Okajima L 2008 · 3.49 FIP	32	SU	3.49	23.3%	8.5%	2.3%	.253	4.09	18.4%	11.4%	107	+0.60	3.05	238	66
Jack Taschner L 2010 · 4.74 FIP	32	SU	4.74	18.1%	11.7%	3.1%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	189	66
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	66
Colt Hynes L 2017 · 3.75 FIP	32	SW	3.75	14.1%	4.6%	2.3%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	169	65
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	64
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.58	21.9%	7.6%	95	-0.12	2.97	294	64
Yorkis Perez L 2000 · 4.85 FIP	32	SU	4.85	18.9%	10.8%	3.6%	.284	4.54	20.8%	10.0%	27	-0.31	3.18	269	63
Ryan Buchter L 2019 · 4.75 FIP	32	SU	4.75	25.3%	10.6%	4.4%	.286	5.24	22.9%	9.7%	32	+0.49	2.37	296	62
Zach Phillips L 2019 · 3.67 FIP	32	SU	3.67	19.1%	8.5%	2.0%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	202	62
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	61
Hisanori Takahashi L 2010 · 3.50 FIP	35	SW	3.50	22.1%	7.0%	2.5%	.292	3.81	21.1%	15.0%	118	+0.31	3.50	240	60
Cory Luebke L 2016 · 3.88 FIP	31	SU	3.88	26.4%	9.1%	3.4%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	216	60
Tommy Phelps L 2005 · 3.98 FIP	31	SU	3.98	13.2%	7.5%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	120	60
Valerio De Los Santos L 2005 · 5.03 FIP	32	SU	5.03	15.5%	8.7%	3.9%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	239	60
Chris Narveson L 2015 · 4.79 FIP	33	SW	4.79	23.6%	8.0%	4.9%	.333	4.59	14.1%	4.5%	193	-0.20	4.00	625	59
Tom Martin L 2001 · 5.68 FIP	31	SU	5.68	14.1%	9.4%	4.7%	.311	4.25	19.8%	11.1%	96	-1.43	3.40	303	59
Micah Bowie L 2007 · 4.60 FIP	32	SW	4.60	16.9%	10.9%	2.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	140	59
Marlon Arias L 2017 · 3.73 FIP	32	SU	3.73	17.2%	7.7%	2.0%	.443	4.83	19.8%	8.6%	74	+1.10	3.73	154	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	50	23.1%	8.4%	1.24	4.53
Shane Greene ('23)	2.4	59	21.7%	8.6%	1.12	4.50
Tyler Duffey ('24)	2.4	61	23.1%	7.0%	1.24	4.57
David Hernandez ('19)	3.2	65	23.9%	9.1%	1.22	4.12
Ed Nunez ('82-'94, 2 WAR*)	3.3	54	24.5%*	9.5%*	1.24*	4.37*
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*
Steve Wilson ('88-'93, 0 WAR*)	1.7	69	21.6%*	8.8%*	1.25*	4.84*