Keegan Akin
P
Norfolk Tides
+0.4
WAR
Age 31
LHP
6'0" / 235 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.11
FIP4.23
xFIP4.66
SIERA4.44
K%24.9%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%15.7%
IP60
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL4545
CMD5555
K†6060
FB Velo
p3893.7
Whiff%
p5225.6%
K%
p4922.0%
xwOBA vs
p320.333
CH+5.7 (20%)
SL+1.4 (29%)
FB-6.3 (51%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Frederick Keys | 21 | 21 | 100 | 423 | 111 | 46 | 12 | 20.2% | 12.5% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.63 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 25 | 25 | 138 | 573 | 142 | 58 | 16 | 20.1% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 3.27 | 4.55 | +1.2 |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 25 | 24 | 112 | 503 | 131 | 61 | 10 | 22.9% | 12.7% | 2.5% | 4.73 | 4.16 | +1.5 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 8 | 6 | 26 | 116 | 35 | 10 | 3 | 30.2% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.56 | 3.11 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 25 | 18 | 97 | 437 | 87 | 40 | 18 | 19.2% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 6.68 | 4.48 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 45 | 1 | 82 | 329 | 77 | 20 | 10 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 3.20 | 3.64 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 30 | 3 | 33 | 145 | 42 | 6 | 3 | 24.1% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 6.06 | 2.56 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 66 | 0 | 79 | 313 | 97 | 18 | 9 | 31.0% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 3.32 | 2.72 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 67 | 4 | 66 | 280 | 62 | 31 | 10 | 22.0% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 3.39 | 4.59 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | BAL | 60 | — | 60 | 251 | 62 | 23 | 8 | 24.6% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.05 | 4.28 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 60 | 255 | 64 | 23 | 8 | 25.0% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 3.98 | 4.21 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 58 | 23 | 8 | 24.0% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.26 | 4.40 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 54 | 22 | 8 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.42 | 4.53 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 50 | 21 | 7 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.57 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 45 | 21 | 7 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 4.72 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 41 | 20 | 7 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 4.88 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 313 | 102 | 733 | 3123 | 707 | 308 | 92 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.06 | +10.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 85 | 28 | 200 | 852 | 193 | 84 | 25 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.06 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Keegan Akin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.28 | 24.6% | 9.2% | 3.1% | — | 4.53 | 23.4% | 13.8% | 163 | +0.25 | — | — | — |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.70 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 223 | 78 |
| Brandon Mann L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 76 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.69 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.42 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 33 | +0.73 | 3.20 | 241 | 74 |
| Brian Moran L 2025 · 3.39 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.39 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .269 | 2.98 | 25.5% | 18.5% | 99 | -0.41 | 1.81 | 421 | 74 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.27 | 27.2% | 11.9% | 1.7% | .312 | 3.37 | 31.7% | 18.8% | 144 | +0.10 | 2.32 | 455 | 74 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 74 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2024 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 74 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.68 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .281 | 2.38 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.30 | 2.38 | 306 | 73 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.48 | 21.3% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .227 | 3.50 | 21.4% | 16.9% | 187 | -0.98 | 2.22 | 405 | 72 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.70 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% | .311 | 4.62 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 85 | +0.92 | 3.70 | 181 | 72 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.62 | 29.2% | 9.2% | 3.3% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 113 | 71 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.80 | 22.7% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .351 | 5.13 | 21.5% | 14.2% | 18 | +1.33 | 2.37 | 130 | 71 |
| Chris Narveson L 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.81 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.63 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.18 | 4.62 | 249 | 71 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.47 | 20.7% | 6.6% | 4.2% | .316 | 3.55 | 25.6% | 21.2% | 121 | -0.92 | 1.36 | 350 | 69 |
| David Huff L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.07 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | .384 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 158 | 69 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.49 | 26.5% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .290 | 4.06 | 22.1% | 12.0% | 54 | +0.57 | 2.43 | 420 | 69 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.56 | 22.3% | 4.8% | 3.1% | .353 | 3.79 | 14.1% | 9.5% | 56 | +0.23 | 3.42 | 152 | 69 |
| Phil Coke L 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 68 |
| Luke Westphal L 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.68 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.4% | .321 | 4.72 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 67 |
| Aaron Loup L 2025 · 3.15 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.15 | 24.0% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .364 | 2.52 | 25.1% | 18.8% | 82 | -0.63 | 2.07 | 363 | 67 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.