Keegan Akin — OGILVIE

Keegan Akin P Baltimore Orioles

Age 31 LHP 6'0" / 235 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 96104vR 112

ERA3.96

FIP4.16

K%21.5%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%12.6%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3893.7

Whiff%

p1019.3%

p1014.9%

xwOBA vs

p640.298

CH+5.7 (20%)

SL+1.4 (29%)

FB-6.3 (51%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	22	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	21	21	100	423	111	46	12	100%	4.8	20.2%	12.5%	7.7%	2.9%	4.14	4.55	—
2017	22	A+ RAW	Frederick Keys	21	21	100	423	111	46	12	100%	4.8	26.2%	10.9%	15.4%	2.8%	4.14	3.82	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	25	25	138	573	142	58	16	100%	5.5	20.1%	11.1%	8.9%	3.2%	3.27	4.55	—
2018	23	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	25	25	138	573	142	58	16	100%	5.5	24.8%	10.1%	14.7%	2.8%	3.27	3.81	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	25	24	112	503	131	61	10	96%	4.5	22.9%	12.7%	10.2%	2.5%	4.73	4.13	—
2019	24	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	25	24	112	503	131	61	10	96%	4.5	26.0%	12.1%	13.9%	2.0%	4.73	3.55	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	8	6	26	116	35	10	3	75%	3.2	30.2%	8.6%	21.6%	2.3%	4.56	2.93	+0.6
2020	25	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	8	6	26	116	35	10	3	75%	3.2	30.2%	8.6%	21.6%	2.6%	4.56	3.06	+0.6
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	18	97	437	87	40	18	72%	3.9	19.2%	9.1%	10.1%	3.6%	6.68	4.61	+0.3
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	18	97	437	87	40	18	72%	3.9	19.9%	9.2%	10.8%	4.1%	6.68	4.96	-0.1
2022	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	45	1	82	329	77	20	10	2%	1.8	23.4%	6.1%	17.3%	3.1%	3.20	3.57	+1.0
2022	27	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	45	1	82	329	77	20	10	2%	1.8	23.4%	6.1%	17.3%	3.0%	3.20	3.54	+1.0
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	3	33	145	42	6	3	10%	1.1	24.1%	4.5%	19.6%	1.8%	6.06	2.62	+0.8
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	3	33	145	42	6	3	10%	1.1	24.1%	4.5%	19.6%	1.8%	6.06	2.62	+0.8
2023	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	3	33	145	42	6	3	10%	1.1	29.0%	4.1%	24.8%	2.1%	6.06	2.27	+0.9
2024	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	66	0	79	313	97	18	9	0%	1.2	31.0%	5.8%	25.2%	2.9%	3.32	2.80	+1.6
2024	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	66	0	79	313	97	18	9	0%	1.2	31.0%	5.8%	25.2%	2.9%	3.32	2.80	+1.6
2024	29	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	66	0	79	313	97	18	9	0%	1.2	31.0%	5.8%	25.2%	2.9%	3.32	2.81	+1.6
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	67	4	66	280	62	31	10	6%	1.0	22.0%	11.6%	10.4%	3.6%	3.39	4.67	-0.1
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	67	4	66	280	62	31	10	6%	1.0	22.0%	11.6%	10.4%	3.6%	3.39	4.67	-0.1
2025	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	67	4	66	280	62	31	10	6%	1.0	22.1%	11.1%	11.1%	3.6%	3.39	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			255	30	393	1679	394	132	54	12%	1.5	23.5%	7.9%	15.6%	3.2%	4.55	3.89	+3.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	28	2	29	130	22	10	4	7%	1.0	14.9%	7.9%	7.0%	2.5%	5.22	4.22	+0.1
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	28	2	29	130	22	10	4	7%	1.0	14.9%	7.9%	7.0%	2.5%	5.22	4.22	+0.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	BAL	4	0	4	16	5	1	1	0%	1.0	31.2%	6.2%	25.0%	6.2%	2.25	4.68	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	BAL	24	2	25	114	17	9	3	8%	1.1	14.9%	7.9%	7.0%	2.6%	5.68	4.29	+0.1
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	BAL	24	2	25	114	17	9	3	8%	1.1	14.9%	7.9%	7.0%	2.6%	5.68	4.29	+0.1
ROS	31	MLB MLE	BAL	2	0	2	7	1	1	0	0%	0.8	21.5%	8.9%	12.6%	3.2%	3.96	4.16	+0.0
ROS	31	MLB CTX	BAL	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	21.5%	8.9%	12.6%	3.2%	3.96	4.16	+0.0
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	31	137	23	11	4	—	—	17.2%	7.8%	9.4%	3.1%	5.15	4.22	+0.1
FULL	31	MLB A+C	BAL	—	—	27	114	23	11	4	—	—	20.6%	9.3%	11.3%	3.7%	5.91	4.57	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	BAL	52	0	55	232	50	22	8	0%	1.1	21.4%	9.3%	12.1%	3.4%	4.51	4.69	-0.1
2028	33	MLB MLE	BAL	48	0	50	213	44	21	8	0%	1.1	20.5%	9.7%	10.8%	3.6%	4.78	4.97	-0.2
2027	32	MLB CTX	BAL	52	0	55	232	50	22	8	0%	1.1	21.4%	9.3%	12.1%	3.4%	4.51	4.69	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	BAL	48	0	50	211	43	20	8	0%	1.0	20.5%	9.7%	10.8%	3.6%	4.78	4.97	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		357	30	500	2131	489	175	70	8%	1.4	22.9%	8.2%	14.7%	3.3%	4.57	4.00	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		143	12	200	852	195	70	28	8%	1.4	22.9%	8.2%	14.7%	3.3%	4.57	4.00	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		340	104	761	3249	725	318	96	31%	2.2	22.3%	9.8%	12.5%	3.0%	4.28	4.08	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		89	27	200	854	190	83	25	31%	2.2	22.3%	9.8%	12.5%	3.0%	4.28	4.08	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keegan Akin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.30	24.9%	9.2%	3.2%	—	4.82	21.0%	11.5%	106	+0.52	—	—	—
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	75
Fernando Abad L 2017 · 3.53 FIP	31	SU	3.53	20.3%	7.1%	2.2%	.281	2.37	23.3%	21.0%	44	-1.16	2.37	306	71
Buddy Boshers L 2019 · 3.73 FIP	31	SU	3.73	25.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	223	71
Chris Narveson L 2015 · 4.79 FIP	33	SW	4.79	23.6%	8.0%	4.9%	.333	4.59	14.1%	4.5%	193	-0.20	4.59	249	69
Jeremy Bleich L 2018 · 3.69 FIP	31	SU	3.69	20.3%	6.6%	2.7%	.296	4.41	20.1%	13.1%	33	+0.72	3.20	241	69
Dan Jennings L 2018 · 3.88 FIP	31	SU	3.88	16.6%	8.1%	2.1%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	244	69
Tony Watson L 2016 · 4.37 FIP	31	SU	4.37	21.3%	7.0%	4.0%	.227	3.43	21.4%	16.9%	187	-0.94	2.21	405	68
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	67
David Huff L 2016 · 4.06 FIP	31	SW	4.06	19.5%	4.9%	3.6%	.384	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	158	67
Mike Dunn L 2016 · 3.71 FIP	31	SU	3.71	21.6%	6.2%	3.0%	.311	4.63	22.4%	8.9%	85	+0.92	3.71	181	67
Jake McGee L 2018 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	20.7%	6.6%	3.9%	.316	3.59	25.6%	21.2%	121	-0.74	1.39	350	67
Phil Coke L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	33	SU	3.89	18.8%	9.1%	2.2%	.373	3.04	18.0%	11.3%	70	-0.85	3.04	101	66
Craig Breslow L 2015 · 4.94 FIP	34	SU	4.94	16.4%	6.4%	4.4%	.279	4.42	16.2%	6.5%	94	-0.52	4.22	159	66
Jason Gurka L 2019 · 5.13 FIP	31	SW	5.13	15.5%	7.6%	4.3%	.382	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	183	66
Edward Paredes L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	22.7%	11.9%	2.0%	.351	5.10	21.5%	14.2%	18	+1.29	2.36	130	66
Brian Moran L 2019 · 3.40 FIP	30	SU	3.40	26.9%	10.0%	2.4%	.269	2.99	25.5%	18.5%	99	-0.41	1.80	421	65
Jake Diekman L 2018 · 3.27 FIP	31	SU	3.27	27.2%	11.9%	1.7%	.312	3.41	31.7%	18.8%	144	+0.14	2.36	455	65
Justin Wilson L 2019 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	26.5%	10.8%	2.4%	.290	4.05	22.1%	12.0%	54	+0.49	2.49	420	64
Tommy Layne L 2016 · 3.43 FIP	31	SU	3.43	20.3%	9.6%	1.5%	.266	4.25	19.4%	10.0%	90	+0.82	1.32	182	64
Justin Marks L 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SW	3.83	18.7%	11.0%	1.7%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	324	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	53	22.3%	9.4%	1.31	4.46
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33