Aroon Escobar

3B Reading Fightin Phils

Age 22 R/R 5'9" / 180 lbs AA HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP45OGV rank#131ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	19	ROKPHI	104	.338/.500/.481	3	9	112	—	.271/.392/.400
2025	20	AA/A+/APHI	538	.270/.366/.413	15	24	79	—	.229/.302/.340
2026	21	AA/INTL2 orgs	607	.230/.338/.346	12	29	76	—	.220/.303/.319
2027PROJMLE	22	MLBPHI	4	.241/.316/.353	0	0	89	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	23	MLBPHI	227	.246/.321/.372	5	7	95	0.4
2029PROJ58% MLB	24	MLBPHI	313	.249/.324/.384	8	10	99	0.8

Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$4M2032Arb-2$7M2033Arb-3$8M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

K%90

Whiff%77

Z-Con%74

Speed66

BB%64

Chase%63

Career WAR0.2 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 16, comp-based) · star 7% · didn't stick 64%

CompsAlberto Carreon (age 22) · Yusniel Díaz (age 22) · Enrique Osorio (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†89

AVG/OBP/SLG.241 / .316 / .353

PA4

HR0

K%25

BB%8

BABIP286

ISO106

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$21M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+1.1	$6M	+$4M
2032	Arb-2	$7M	+1.1	$6M	+$2M
2033	Arb-3	$8M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$13M		$25M	+$14M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL Phillies Red	—	186	143	34	4	1	3	24	26	14	11	6	238	398	343	740	105	263	14	13	342	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Phillies White	—	134	110	23	7	0	1	20	13	3	13	2	209	346	300	646	91	227	10	15	304	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	104	77	26	2	0	3	21	10	4	9	0	338	500	481	981	143	354	10	20	437	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	24	22	4	0	1	0	2	6	0	0	0	182	250	273	523	91	250	25	8	239	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	198	168	43	1	3	4	22	41	4	14	2	256	356	369	725	113	307	21	11	325	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	316	270	77	12	0	11	32	51	10	10	3	285	381	452	833	167	311	16	10	370	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	569	487	112	17	2	12	67	92	10	27	7	230	335	347	682	117	258	16	12	312	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	38	30	7	1	1	0	7	9	0	2	0	233	378	333	712	100	318	24	18	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	186	150	24	2	1	1	17	32	14	11	6	160	304	207	511	47	173	17	9	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	—	134	115	16	5	0	1	15	16	3	13	2	139	256	209	464	70	149	12	11	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	104	85	23	2	0	3	13	14	4	9	0	271	392	400	792	129	265	13	12	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	—	24	23	4	0	1	0	1	7	0	0	0	174	208	261	469	87	262	29	4	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	198	178	39	1	2	4	12	54	4	14	2	219	284	315	598	96	272	27	6	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	316	279	67	10	0	8	23	65	10	10	3	240	321	362	683	122	276	21	7	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	—	569	504	111	16	2	10	50	112	10	27	7	220	303	319	623	99	256	20	9	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	186	150	24	2	1	1	17	32	14	11	6	160	304	207	511	47	190	17	9	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	—	186	143	34	4	1	3	24	26	14	11	6	238	398	343	740	105	263	14	13	342	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	—	134	115	16	5	0	1	15	16	3	13	2	139	256	209	464	70	152	12	11	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	—	134	110	23	7	0	1	20	13	3	13	2	209	346	300	646	91	227	10	15	304	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	104	85	23	2	0	3	13	14	4	9	0	271	392	400	792	129	290	13	12	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	—	104	77	26	2	0	3	21	10	4	9	0	338	500	481	981	143	354	10	20	437	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	538	480	110	11	3	12	36	126	14	24	5	229	302	340	641	110	280	23	7	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A RAW	3 teams	—	538	460	124	13	4	15	56	98	14	24	5	270	366	413	779	143	307	18	10	348	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	607	538	119	17	2	11	53	120	10	29	7	221	303	322	624	100	262	20	9	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA RAW	2 teams	—	607	517	119	18	3	12	74	101	10	29	7	230	338	346	684	116	261	17	12	313	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	—	186	153	24	2	1	1	17	32	14	11	6	157	304	203	506	46	173	17	9	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	—	134	115	16	5	0	1	15	16	3	13	2	139	256	209	464	70	149	12	11	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	104	86	23	2	0	3	13	14	4	9	0	267	392	395	788	128	265	13	12	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	538	483	110	11	3	12	36	126	14	24	5	228	302	337	639	110	274	23	7	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	607	539	119	17	2	11	53	120	10	29	7	221	303	321	624	100	256	20	9	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	104	86	23	2	0	3	13	14	4	9	0	267	392	395	788	128	265	13	12	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	538	483	110	11	3	12	36	126	14	24	5	228	302	337	639	110	274	23	7	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	607	539	119	17	2	11	53	120	10	29	7	221	303	321	624	100	256	20	9	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	PHI	2%	634	568	136	19	3	12	51	126	10	20	5	240	314	348	662	108	286	20	8	300	89	-8	+2	-2	+2	+14	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	22	MLB CTX	PHI	2%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	241	316	353	669	112	286	25	0	302	89	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	PHI	44%	517	461	114	16	3	12	43	101	8	17	4	244	319	365	684	121	287	20	8	308	95	-3	+2	-2	+2	+11	1.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	PHI	58%	537	479	119	17	3	13	45	105	8	17	4	247	322	376	699	129	288	20	8	314	99	-1	+2	-1	+2	+12	1.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	PHI	65%	560	499	124	18	3	14	47	110	9	18	4	248	324	382	706	134	288	20	8	317	100	+0	+2	-1	+2	+12	1.6
2031	26	MLB MLE	PHI	68%	578	515	128	19	3	15	49	114	9	18	4	248	324	384	708	136	288	20	8	317	101	+1	+2	-1	+2	+13	1.7
2032	27	MLB MLE	PHI	68%	582	519	128	19	3	15	49	116	9	18	4	247	323	383	705	136	288	20	8	316	100	+0	+2	-1	+2	+13	1.6
2033	28	MLB MLE	PHI	68%	576	514	126	18	3	15	49	116	8	15	4	245	320	378	698	133	287	20	9	313	98	-1	+1	-2	+2	+12	1.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	PHI	66%	562	502	122	18	3	14	47	115	8	12	3	242	317	371	689	129	285	20	8	310	96	-3	+1	-2	+2	+12	1.0
2035	30	MLB MLE	PHI	66%	550	491	117	17	2	13	46	114	8	9	3	239	314	363	676	124	283	21	8	305	92	-5	+1	-3	+2	+12	0.6
2036	31	MLB MLE	PHI	65%	533	477	112	16	2	12	44	113	7	5	2	234	309	352	661	118	280	21	8	298	88	-8	+0	-4	+2	+12	0.2
2037	32	MLB MLE	PHI	65%	511	457	105	14	2	11	42	111	7	1	2	229	302	339	642	111	276	22	8	290	83	-11	-1	-4	+2	+11	-0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	PHI	44%	227	202	50	7	1	5	19	45	4	7	2	246	321	372	693	126	288	20	8	312	95	-1	+1	-1	+1	+5	0.4
2029	24	MLB CTX	PHI	58%	313	279	69	9	2	8	26	61	5	10	2	249	324	384	708	134	289	19	8	317	99	-1	+1	-1	+1	+7	0.8
2030	25	MLB CTX	PHI	65%	364	324	81	11	2	10	31	71	6	12	3	250	326	390	716	140	289	20	9	320	100	+0	+1	-1	+1	+8	1.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	PHI	68%	394	352	87	12	2	11	33	78	6	12	3	250	326	392	718	142	289	20	8	321	101	+0	+1	-1	+1	+9	1.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	PHI	68%	396	353	88	13	2	11	34	79	6	12	3	249	325	391	715	142	289	20	9	320	100	+0	+1	-1	+1	+9	1.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	PHI	68%	392	350	86	12	2	11	33	79	6	10	3	247	322	385	708	138	288	20	8	317	98	-1	+1	-1	+1	+8	0.9
2034	29	MLB CTX	PHI	66%	373	334	81	11	2	10	31	76	5	8	2	244	319	378	698	134	286	20	8	313	96	-2	+1	-2	+1	+8	0.7
2035	30	MLB CTX	PHI	66%	361	323	78	11	2	9	30	75	5	6	2	241	315	370	685	129	284	21	8	308	92	-3	+0	-2	+1	+8	0.4
2036	31	MLB CTX	PHI	65%	347	310	73	10	1	8	29	74	5	3	1	236	310	359	669	123	281	21	8	302	88	-5	+0	-2	+1	+8	0.2
2037	32	MLB CTX	PHI	65%	331	297	69	9	1	8	27	72	4	1	1	231	304	346	649	115	277	22	8	293	83	-7	-0	-3	+1	+7	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3498	3124	762	105	17	91	293	710	52	81	22	244	319	376	695	132	287	20	8	313	90	-19	+7	-14	+12	+76	6.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	142	20	3	17	54	132	10	15	4	244	320	377	697	133	287	20	8	313	90	-4	+1	-3	+2	+14	1.2
Career	—	MLE		—	7285	6470	1532	215	34	166	612	1465	129	223	56	237	315	357	673	121	279	20	8	301	90	-33	+13	-22	+20	+124	10.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	137	19	3	15	55	131	12	20	5	237	317	359	676	121	280	20	8	301	90	-4	+1	-3	+2	+14	1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAReading Fightin Phils · 569 PAwOBA .307 → .277 (−30)K% 16.2% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.17%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	19.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.78%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.050	8.65%
HBP% /PA	1.76%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	1.57%
Singles /BIP	20.51%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.002	×1.050	20.92%
Doubles /BIP	4.30%	÷1.000	×0.860	×1.002	×1.050	3.89%
Triples /BIP	0.51%	÷1.000	×0.950	×1.002	×1.050	0.51%
Home runs /BIP	3.04%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.050	2.49%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .307 → .277; ISO .117 → .101; BABIP .258 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AClearwater Threshers · 316 PAwOBA .364 → .304 (−60)K% 16.1% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.14%	÷1.065	×1.360	—	—	20.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.81%	÷0.975	×0.690	—	×1.030	7.15%
HBP% /PA	3.16%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	2.54%
Singles /BIP	24.66%	÷1.030	×0.920	×0.983	×1.030	22.31%
Doubles /BIP	5.48%	÷0.975	×0.830	×0.983	×1.030	4.72%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.923	×0.910	×0.983	×1.030	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.02%	÷1.083	×0.800	—	×1.030	3.82%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 85, K 113, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .364 → .304; ISO .167 → .132; BABIP .311 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 198 PAwOBA .322 → .262 (−60)K% 20.7% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.71%	÷1.002	×1.310	—	—	27.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.61%	÷1.093	×0.600	—	×1.042	6.07%
HBP% /PA	2.02%	—	×0.770	—	×1.042	1.62%
Singles /BIP	27.56%	÷0.966	×0.870	×0.964	×1.042	24.91%
Doubles /BIP	0.79%	÷1.073	×0.780	×0.964	×1.042	0.57%
Triples /BIP	2.36%	÷1.150	×0.850	×0.964	×1.042	1.75%
Home runs /BIP	3.15%	÷1.045	×0.880	—	×1.042	2.76%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 93, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 100, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .322 → .262; ISO .113 → .095; BABIP .307 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAReading Fightin Phils · 24 PAwOBA .233 → .219 (−14)K% 25.0% → 30.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷1.016	×1.220	—	—	30.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.33%	÷0.982	×0.700	—	×1.050	6.24%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.75%	÷0.968	×0.970	—	×1.050	19.73%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.004	×0.860	—	×1.050	0.00%
Triples /BIP	6.25%	÷0.959	×0.950	—	×1.050	6.50%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.036	×0.780	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 94, 2B 101, 3B 92, K 103, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .233 → .219; ISO .091 → .090; BABIP .250 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Phillies · 104 PAwOBA .431 → .334 (−97)K% 9.6% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.62%	÷1.042	×1.440	—	—	13.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.19%	÷0.982	×0.620	—	×1.008	12.84%
HBP% /PA	3.85%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	2.79%
Singles /BIP	31.34%	÷1.073	×0.820	×0.985	×1.008	23.78%
Doubles /BIP	2.99%	÷1.015	×0.720	×0.985	×1.008	2.10%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.994	×0.720	×0.985	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.48%	÷0.924	×0.780	—	×1.008	3.81%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 115, 2B 103, 3B 99, K 108, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .431 → .334; ISO .143 → .130; BABIP .354 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Phillies White · 134 PAwOBA .300 → .209 (−91)K% 9.7% → 12.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.70%	÷0.960	×1.220	—	—	12.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.93%	÷0.964	×0.700	—	×1.008	10.92%
HBP% /PA	2.24%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	1.58%
Singles /BIP	15.46%	÷0.986	×0.680	×0.964	×1.008	10.36%
Doubles /BIP	7.22%	÷0.915	×0.600	×0.964	×1.008	4.60%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.016	×0.600	×0.964	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.03%	÷0.794	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.61%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 59, 1B 97, 2B 83, 3B 103, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .300 → .209; ISO .091 → .059; BABIP .227 → .149. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL Phillies Red · 186 PAwOBA .341 → .235 (−106)K% 14.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.98%	÷1.004	×1.220	—	—	16.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.90%	÷0.989	×0.700	—	×1.022	9.34%
HBP% /PA	7.53%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	5.39%
Singles /BIP	22.22%	÷0.957	×0.680	×0.955	×1.022	15.43%
Doubles /BIP	3.42%	÷1.164	×0.600	×0.955	×1.022	1.72%
Triples /BIP	0.85%	÷1.001	×0.600	×0.955	×1.022	0.50%
Home runs /BIP	2.56%	÷1.187	×0.470	—	×1.022	1.04%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 91, 2B 133, 3B 100, K 101, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .341 → .235; ISO .105 → .052; BABIP .263 → .173. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jason Kipnislast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,984 PA	7.5	4,984	126	136	260	333	416	+18	-11	22.6	21.9
/162	664	17	18	+2.4	-1.4	3.0	pk7: 21
#2Kelly Johnsonlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,139 PA	7.7	5,139	155	87	251	330	422	+8	-3	22.3	21.3
/162	664	20	11	+1.0	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 20
#3Tony Bernazard'79-'91 * career totals — 9 seasons, 4,243 PA	6.4	4,243	75	113	258*	339*	404*	+15	+5	17.1	17.2
/162	664	12	18	+2.4	+0.7	2.7	pk7: 17
#4Ed Charles'62-'69 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,909 PA	5.9	3,909	86	86	268*	336*	429*	+14	-11	15.2	15.3
/162	664	15	15	+2.3	-1.9	2.6	pk7: 15
#5Julio Lugo'00-'11 * career totals — 11 seasons, 5,338 PA	8.0	5,338	80	198	259*	323*	374*	+48	-38	10.5	11.7
/162	664	10	25	+6.0	-4.7	1.3	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	5.3	3,501	86	83	244	315	372	+13	-9	9.6	8.9
/162	664	16	16	+2.4	-1.6	1.8	pk7: 8
#6Mike Lansing'93-'01 * career totals — 9 seasons, 4,551 PA	6.9	4,551	84	119	259*	312*	394*	+20	-12	6.0	7.4
/162	664	12	17	+3.0	-1.8	0.9	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aroon Escobar (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	238/312/345	107	286	4	7	20%	8%	89	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alberto Carreon 2010 · AAA	22	46→56	45	43→50	48	225/296/348	123	253	13	10	17%	6%	84	+0.1	242/295/324	82	298	5	9	19%	5%	76	-0.4	274/332/381	107	344	7	11	21%	5%	100	+0.8
✕Yusniel Díaz 2019 · AA	22	50→54	44→45	42→50	48	245/306/365	120	311	11	10	24%	8%	91	+0.6	216/276/340	124	293	12	6	29%	7%	74	-0.6	203/270/314	111	271	13	9	29%	8%	64	-0.7
✕Enrique Osorio 2007 · AAA	22	47→55	40→45	47→50	51	225/313/314	89	270	7	14	18%	8%	82	+0.0	221/281/293	72	273	6	14	20%	6%	65	-1.2	266/324/381	114	299	12	10	15%	6%	98	+0.6
✕Agustín Ramírez 2024 · AA	22	44→48	48→55	48→55	47	226/286/366	140	275	16	10	24%	8%	84	+0.1	237/299/402	165	282	19	17	22%	7%	97	+1.1	236/301/405	169	279	19	20	22%	7%	97	+1.1
✕Leo Jiménez 2023 · A	22	48→52	41→45	48→45	51	225/337/325	100	294	8	9	24%	9%	95	+1.0	235/325/347	112	296	10	7	23%	7%	95	+0.9	237/330/347	110	299	10	5	22%	7%	95	+0.5
✕José Fermín 2022 · AA	23	48→52	42→45	46→55	48	231/290/332	101	257	9	10	14%	6%	77	-0.3	221/304/328	107	247	10	14	15%	9%	82	-0.0	248/334/370	122	271	11	25	12%	10%	102	+0.9
●Cheslor Cuthbert 2015 · AAA	22	46→56	42→50	45	44	227/273/334	107	276	10	8	21%	6%	70	-0.8	249/295/379	130	294	13	5	19%	6%	89	+0.5	255/309/403	148	298	17	1	20%	7%	101	+0.7
●Jake Meyers 2019 · A	23	48→58	42→55	43→50	45	229/291/342	113	295	9	11	24%	7%	80	-0.2	223/281/349	126	297	12	11	28%	6%	78	-0.3	254/316/413	159	324	19	11	26%	7%	105	+1.1
✕José Caballero 2019 · A	22	47→45	43→45	47→70	45	231/292/348	117	278	10	9	21%	6%	81	-0.1	219/292/328	109	283	9	26	25%	8%	78	-0.3	226/318/339	113	301	10	63	26%	9%	91	+0.4
✕Matt Vierling 2019 · A	22	47→55	46→50	43→50	38	235/279/367	132	301	13	9	26%	4%	81	-0.1	208/263/306	98	279	9	14	27%	6%	61	-1.5	254/314/393	139	307	13	10	21%	7%	100	+1.2
●Trevor Plouffe 2008 · AA	22	48→54	41→60	45	46	234/285/339	105	289	8	8	22%	6%	76	-0.4	238/277/367	129	288	11	6	21%	5%	80	-0.2	249/313/413	164	289	17	2	20%	8%	105	+1.6
✕Juan Brito 2024 · AAA	22	49→50	46→50	43→45	54	240/323/378	138	287	13	8	20%	10%	100	+1.3	222/300/353	131	271	13	10	22%	9%	86	+0.3	210/289/336	126	255	12	10	22%	9%	76	-0.3
●Christian Vázquez 2014 · AA	23	51→55	43→50	42→45	49	245/307/354	108	297	10	6	20%	8%	88	+0.4	246/300/333	87	307	6	4	20%	7%	80	-0.1	259/309/407	148	296	18	8	19%	7%	102	+1.0
●Kristian Campbell 2024 · A	22	49→58	41→45	46→50	43	226/306/330	104	321	7	10	30%	7%	83	+0.1	250/335/385	135	341	14	13	28%	10%	107	+1.8	243/335/370	127	339	13	12	29%	10%	101	+1.2
✕Hao-Yu Lee 2024 · A	21	49→51	43→50	50→55	46	237/307/351	113	309	11	15	26%	8%	88	+0.4	250/313/394	144	313	14	16	23%	7%	100	+1.3	253/317/409	156	313	15	15	23%	7%	103	+1.2
✕Nick Senzel 2017 · A	22	48→58	45→50	51→50	47	232/297/367	135	304	10	16	26%	8%	88	+0.4	256/311/403	147	336	12	14	26%	7%	101	+1.4	263/317/416	154	341	14	16	26%	7%	104	+1.0
✕Jake Smolinski 2012 · AA	23	48→50	42→55	42→45	50	233/291/344	111	271	8	7	17%	7%	80	-0.2	228/302/336	108	277	9	9	20%	9%	82	+0.0	238/300/392	154	271	17	6	18%	7%	94	+0.6
✕Jamie Westbrook 2017 · AA	22	49→54	43→50	47→45	42	241/280/351	110	280	10	9	18%	4%	77	-0.3	243/283/370	127	276	13	5	17%	4%	83	+0.1	246/298/391	146	280	17	3	19%	5%	92	+0.6
●Daniel Robertson 2016 · AA	22	53→57	43→45	40	48	253/322/373	120	312	9	4	21%	7%	99	+1.2	243/324/352	109	315	9	4	24%	9%	95	+0.9	242/335/352	110	316	10	2	24%	10%	98	+0.8
✕Christian Villanueva 2013 · A	22	46→47	44→55	47→50	40	226/282/339	114	291	11	13	26%	5%	76	-0.4	218/266/358	140	275	15	6	26%	5%	74	-0.5	228/286/406	177	263	24	3	23%	6%	93	+0.6

Aroon Escobar

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps