Jamie Westbrook

2B Durham Bulls

Age 32 R/R 5'7" / 193 lbs AAA HR -6%H +4% Svc 3.000 · Ctrl thru 2029

Overview

AAAROOKIEArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	28	AAAScranton/Wilk…	496	.294/.395/.496	21	6	103	—	.255/.330/.401
2024	29	AAABOS	425	.277/.370/.450	12	2	86	—	.237/.308/.371
2024	29	MLBBOS	48	.150/.239/.350	2	0	53	0.0
2025	30	AAATB	430	.266/.354/.401	7	2	77	—	.240/.304/.338
2026	31	No MLB games played
2027PROJ10% MLB	32	MLBTB	16	.239/.305/.366	0	0	90	0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	33	MLBTB	65	.232/.297/.352	1	0	83	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.0 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.000First FA2030

2027Arb-1$0.4M2028Arb-2$0.4M2029Ext$1M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 AAA

K%81

Max EV76

Whiff%66

Z-Con%53

BB%47

Chase%46

CompsMiguel Ojeda (age 32) · Bryan Holaday (age 32) · Gerald Laird (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†90

AVG/OBP/SLG.239 / .305 / .366

PA16

HR0

K%19

BB%6

BABIP285

ISO67

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024

CONTACT

xAVG

100.217

POWER

Barrel%

6710.7

Avg EV

5489.4

Bat Spd

2869.0

SPEED

Sprint

3626.8

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2024

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	18	ROK	Missoula Osprey	—	252	221	62	11	8	2	23	41	4	4	3	281	356	430	786	149	333	16	9	346	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A	South Bend Silver Hawks	—	565	509	132	27	4	8	38	98	5	6	3	259	315	375	690	116	303	17	7	305	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+	Visalia Rawhide	—	527	480	153	33	4	17	24	69	10	14	4	319	362	510	872	192	337	13	5	376	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	INTL	Sydney Blue Sox	—	118	107	32	5	0	0	5	6	1	3	2	299	328	346	673	47	314	5	4	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA	Mobile BayBears	—	473	435	114	21	1	5	26	60	6	10	5	262	310	349	659	87	294	13	5	297	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	67	60	14	1	0	1	6	6	0	0	1	233	299	300	599	67	245	9	9	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA	Jackson Generals	—	409	377	100	19	3	8	16	43	8	2	2	265	307	395	702	130	278	11	4	309	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA	Reno Aces	—	25	23	9	1	0	4	2	2	0	0	0	391	440	957	1.397	565	294	8	8	585	196	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	Jackson Generals	—	443	408	117	20	5	15	24	71	7	4	3	287	336	471	806	184	315	16	5	353	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA	Reno Aces	—	127	106	34	6	0	3	16	15	2	0	1	321	416	462	878	142	344	12	13	387	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA	Jackson Generals	—	388	342	92	20	1	13	32	68	8	1	1	269	346	447	793	178	296	18	8	348	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	INTL	Mayos de Navojoa	—	48	45	10	2	0	0	2	9	1	0	1	222	271	267	537	44	278	19	4	249	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	287	251	72	15	1	11	21	42	7	2	0	287	353	486	839	199	302	15	7	363	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	82	69	18	1	1	1	9	12	2	1	0	261	362	348	710	87	293	15	11	321	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	511	429	109	22	0	11	54	80	14	1	2	254	349	382	731	128	287	16	11	329	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	496	411	121	20	0	21	67	81	7	6	4	294	395	496	891	202	322	16	14	390	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	48	40	6	2	0	2	4	14	1	0	0	150	239	350	589	200	154	29	8	251	53	-3	+0	+0	+2	+1	0.0
2024	29	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	425	358	99	24	1	12	48	72	8	2	2	277	370	450	820	173	311	17	11	360	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	430	372	99	29	0	7	43	70	8	2	0	266	354	401	754	134	307	16	10	337	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	48	40	6	2	0	2	4	14	1	0	0	150	239	350	589	200	154	29	8	251	56	-2	+0	+0	+2	+1	0.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	18	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	—	252	232	50	8	6	1	14	59	4	4	3	216	272	315	587	99	277	23	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A MLE	South Bend Silver Hawks	—	565	523	121	22	3	7	28	134	5	6	3	231	277	325	602	94	287	24	5	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	527	491	136	28	3	17	16	92	10	14	4	277	313	450	763	173	296	17	3	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	473	446	103	18	1	4	19	75	6	10	5	231	272	303	574	72	265	16	4	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	—	409	385	95	18	2	7	11	53	8	2	2	247	282	358	641	112	261	13	3	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	25	24	8	1	0	3	1	3	0	0	0	333	360	750	1.110	417	249	12	4	458	196	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	—	443	418	108	18	4	13	16	89	7	4	3	258	297	414	711	156	295	20	4	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	127	111	29	5	0	2	12	20	2	0	1	261	344	360	704	99	291	16	9	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	—	388	353	81	16	1	11	21	81	8	1	1	229	288	374	662	144	254	21	5	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	287	261	68	13	1	9	15	49	7	2	0	261	318	421	739	161	276	17	5	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	82	72	17	1	1	1	6	15	2	1	0	236	312	319	632	83	257	18	7	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	511	456	101	19	0	8	37	95	14	1	2	221	300	316	616	94	257	19	7	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	496	444	113	20	0	15	43	97	7	6	4	255	330	401	731	146	291	20	9	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	48	41	6	2	0	2	4	14	1	0	0	146	239	341	581	195	154	29	8	247	53	-3	+0	+0	+2	+1	0.0
2024	29	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	425	380	90	22	1	9	31	86	8	2	2	237	308	371	679	134	270	20	7	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	430	388	93	26	0	4	28	80	8	2	0	240	304	338	642	98	281	19	7	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	—	252	232	50	8	6	1	14	59	4	4	3	216	272	315	587	99	282	23	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	ROK RAW	Missoula Osprey	—	252	221	62	11	8	2	23	41	4	4	3	281	356	430	786	149	333	16	9	346	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A MLE	South Bend Silver Hawks	—	565	523	121	22	3	7	28	134	5	6	3	231	277	325	602	94	294	24	5	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A RAW	South Bend Silver Hawks	—	565	509	132	27	4	8	38	98	5	6	3	259	315	375	690	116	303	17	7	305	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	645	602	166	34	4	20	20	113	11	17	6	276	311	445	756	169	304	18	3	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	645	587	185	38	4	17	29	75	11	17	6	315	355	480	836	165	332	12	4	361	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	540	510	116	20	1	4	22	85	6	10	6	227	268	294	562	67	265	16	4	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA RAW	2 teams	—	540	495	128	22	1	6	32	66	6	10	6	259	309	343	652	85	288	12	6	294	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	—	409	385	95	18	2	7	11	53	8	2	2	247	282	358	641	112	267	13	3	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA RAW	Jackson Generals	—	409	377	100	19	3	8	16	43	8	2	2	265	307	395	702	130	278	11	4	309	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	468	442	116	19	4	16	17	92	7	4	3	262	300	432	733	170	298	20	4	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	468	431	126	21	5	19	26	73	7	4	3	292	341	497	838	204	314	16	6	366	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	563	508	121	23	1	15	36	110	11	1	3	238	303	376	679	138	271	20	6	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA RAW	3 teams	—	563	493	136	28	1	16	50	92	11	1	3	276	355	434	789	158	305	16	9	348	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	369	333	84	13	2	10	21	64	9	3	0	252	314	393	707	141	279	17	6	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	369	320	90	16	2	12	30	54	9	3	0	281	355	456	812	175	300	15	8	354	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	511	456	101	19	0	8	37	95	14	1	2	221	300	316	616	94	261	19	7	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	—	511	429	109	22	0	11	54	80	14	1	2	254	349	382	731	128	287	16	11	329	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	496	444	113	20	0	15	43	97	7	6	4	255	330	401	731	146	293	20	9	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	496	411	121	20	0	21	67	81	7	6	4	294	395	496	891	202	322	16	14	390	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	473	421	96	24	1	11	35	100	9	2	2	228	301	368	669	140	267	21	7	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	473	398	105	26	1	14	52	86	9	2	2	264	357	440	797	176	297	18	11	349	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	430	388	93	26	0	4	28	80	8	2	0	240	304	338	642	98	288	19	7	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	—	430	372	99	29	0	7	43	70	8	2	0	266	354	401	754	134	307	16	10	337	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	—	252	232	50	8	6	1	14	59	4	4	3	216	272	315	587	99	277	23	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A MLE	South Bend Silver Hawks	—	565	527	121	22	3	7	28	134	5	6	3	230	277	323	600	93	287	24	5	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	645	609	166	34	4	20	20	113	11	17	6	273	311	440	751	167	296	18	3	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	540	507	116	20	1	4	22	85	6	10	6	229	268	296	564	67	265	16	4	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	—	409	387	95	18	2	7	11	53	8	2	2	245	282	357	639	111	261	13	3	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	468	441	116	19	4	16	17	92	7	4	3	263	300	433	734	170	293	20	4	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	563	511	121	23	1	15	36	110	11	1	3	237	303	374	676	137	263	20	6	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	369	336	84	13	2	10	21	64	9	3	0	250	314	390	704	140	272	17	6	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	511	455	101	19	0	8	37	95	14	1	2	222	300	316	616	95	257	19	7	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	496	443	113	20	0	15	43	97	7	6	4	255	330	402	732	147	291	20	9	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	473	426	96	24	1	11	35	100	9	2	2	225	301	364	665	138	258	21	7	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	430	391	93	26	0	4	28	80	8	2	0	238	304	335	639	97	281	19	7	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	473	426	96	24	1	11	35	100	9	2	2	225	301	364	665	138	258	21	7	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	430	391	93	26	0	4	28	80	8	2	0	238	304	335	639	97	281	19	7	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	TB	10%	380	345	82	20	1	8	26	76	6	3	1	238	304	368	672	130	282	20	7	301	90	-5	+0	-1	+1	+8	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	TB	10%	16	15	3	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	239	305	366	671	127	285	19	6	301	90	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	TB	27%	238	216	49	12	0	4	16	49	4	0	0	231	296	353	649	122	277	21	7	292	83	-5	+0	-5	+1	+5	-0.3
2028	33	MLB CTX	TB	27%	65	60	13	3	0	1	4	14	1	0	0	232	297	352	649	119	279	22	6	292	83	-1	+0	-1	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	113	100	19	5	0	3	8	28	2	0	0	190	261	330	591	140	225	25	7	275	82	-4	+0	-1	+2	+2	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	109	29	0	17	46	161	12	0	0	190	262	329	590	139	225	25	7	275	82	-22	+0	-6	+11	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	6114	5600	1354	266	24	125	339	1162	106	59	34	242	298	365	662	123	281	19	6	290	82	-9	+0	-5	+3	+10	-0.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	595	144	28	3	13	36	124	11	6	4	242	298	365	662	123	282	19	6	290	82	-13	+0	-7	+5	+14	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAADurham Bulls · 430 PAwOBA .332 → .282 (−50)K% 16.3% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.28%	÷1.057	×1.200	—	—	18.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.00%	÷1.030	×0.690	—	×0.972	6.51%
HBP% /PA	1.86%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	1.70%
Singles /BIP	20.86%	÷0.956	×0.930	×1.011	×0.972	19.94%
Doubles /BIP	9.60%	÷0.940	×0.830	×1.011	×0.972	8.33%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.011	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.32%	÷1.380	×0.700	—	×0.972	1.14%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 176, 1B 91, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 111, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.

Result: wOBA .332 → .282; ISO .134 → .100; BABIP .307 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 425 PAwOBA .355 → .295 (−61)K% 16.9% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.94%	÷1.004	×1.200	—	—	20.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.29%	÷1.049	×0.690	—	×0.982	7.29%
HBP% /PA	1.88%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.74%
Singles /BIP	21.68%	÷1.036	×0.930	×1.007	×0.982	19.25%
Doubles /BIP	8.39%	÷0.951	×0.830	×1.007	×0.982	7.24%
Triples /BIP	0.35%	÷1.143	×0.970	×1.007	×0.982	0.29%
Home runs /BIP	4.20%	÷0.996	×0.700	—	×0.982	2.90%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 107, 2B 90, 3B 129, K 101, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .355 → .295; ISO .173 → .139; BABIP .311 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 496 PAwOBA .382 → .320 (−62)K% 16.3% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.33%	÷0.998	×1.200	—	—	19.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.51%	÷1.059	×0.690	—	×0.992	8.73%
HBP% /PA	1.41%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.32%
Singles /BIP	24.24%	÷1.029	×0.930	×1.027	×0.992	22.32%
Doubles /BIP	6.06%	÷0.903	×0.830	×1.027	×0.992	5.68%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.048	×0.970	×1.027	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.36%	÷1.017	×0.700	—	×0.992	4.34%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 106, 2B 81, 3B 110, K 100, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.

Result: wOBA .382 → .320; ISO .202 → .159; BABIP .322 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 511 PAwOBA .321 → .276 (−44)K% 15.7% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.66%	÷1.008	×1.200	—	—	18.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.98%	÷0.964	×0.690	—	×1.003	7.17%
HBP% /PA	2.74%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	2.58%
Singles /BIP	21.78%	÷1.015	×0.930	×1.008	×1.003	20.17%
Doubles /BIP	6.30%	÷1.015	×0.830	×1.008	×1.003	5.21%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.008	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.15%	÷1.026	×0.700	—	×1.003	2.16%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 103, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .321 → .276; ISO .128 → .100; BABIP .287 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAANashville Sounds · 287 PAwOBA .357 → .317 (−41)K% 14.6% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.63%	÷1.024	×1.200	—	—	17.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.97%	÷0.946	×0.690	—	×1.018	5.17%
HBP% /PA	2.44%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	2.33%
Singles /BIP	21.53%	÷0.966	×0.930	×0.985	×1.018	20.78%
Doubles /BIP	7.18%	÷1.030	×0.830	×0.985	×1.018	5.80%
Triples /BIP	0.48%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.985	×1.018	0.38%
Home runs /BIP	5.26%	÷0.915	×0.700	—	×1.018	4.10%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 93, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 105, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .357 → .317; ISO .199 → .163; BABIP .302 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AABiloxi Shuckers · 82 PAwOBA .321 → .270 (−51)K% 14.6% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.63%	÷0.980	×1.220	—	—	18.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.98%	÷1.033	×0.690	—	×0.988	7.25%
HBP% /PA	2.44%	—	×0.850	—	×0.988	2.05%
Singles /BIP	26.32%	÷0.993	×0.940	×0.950	×0.988	23.37%
Doubles /BIP	1.75%	÷1.124	×0.870	×0.950	×0.988	1.27%
Triples /BIP	1.75%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.950	×0.988	1.51%
Home runs /BIP	1.75%	÷0.929	×0.780	—	×0.988	1.45%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 99, 2B 125, 3B 100, K 96, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .321 → .270; ISO .087 → .075; BABIP .293 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAJackson Generals · 388 PAwOBA .342 → .288 (−54)K% 17.5% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.53%	÷1.028	×1.220	—	—	20.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.73%	÷1.001	×0.680	—	×1.012	5.32%
HBP% /PA	2.06%	—	×0.840	—	×1.012	1.75%
Singles /BIP	21.17%	÷0.996	×0.920	×0.950	×1.012	18.80%
Doubles /BIP	7.30%	÷1.099	×0.910	×0.950	×1.012	5.81%
Triples /BIP	0.36%	÷0.900	×0.880	×0.950	×1.012	0.34%
Home runs /BIP	4.74%	÷0.966	×0.800	—	×1.012	3.98%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 99, 2B 120, 3B 80, K 106, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .342 → .288; ISO .178 → .151; BABIP .296 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAReno Aces · 127 PAwOBA .384 → .319 (−64)K% 11.8% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.81%	÷0.970	×1.290	—	—	15.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.60%	÷0.986	×0.710	—	×1.048	9.51%
HBP% /PA	1.57%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	1.62%
Singles /BIP	27.47%	÷1.035	×0.900	×0.950	×1.048	23.78%
Doubles /BIP	6.59%	÷1.025	×0.810	×0.950	×1.048	5.19%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.950	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.30%	÷1.077	×0.780	—	×1.048	2.50%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 107, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .384 → .319; ISO .142 → .111; BABIP .344 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jamie Westbrook (OGILVIE)	32	—	—	—	—	236/301/364	128	282	3	1	20%	7%	90	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Miguel Ojeda 2007 · MLB	32	46→45	45	41→45	50	227/292/347	120	263	13	5	19%	8%	81	-0.1	233/294/353	120	273	12	7	19%	7%	83	+0.1	237/302/363	127	268	13	7	17%	8%	87	+0.2
✕Bryan Holaday 2020 · MLB	32	46	45	38→40	48	230/289/352	123	258	13	4	17%	6%	82	-0.0	222/283/363	141	267	15	7	23%	7%	82	-0.0	186/238/360	174	219	21	4	27%	5%	67	-0.3
✕Gerald Laird 2013 · MLB	33	51→47	43→50	46→50	50	246/302/357	112	276	10	5	15%	7%	87	+0.4	241/309/338	97	286	7	6	17%	8%	85	+0.2	231/306/298	66	286	2	2	18%	8%	76	-0.1
✕Austin Nola 2023 · MLB	33	53→52	42→45	43→45	53	254/326/358	105	288	9	4	15%	8%	97	+1.1	205/275/292	87	252	8	4	21%	8%	63	-1.4	171/239/235	64	217	5	0	23%	7%	35	-1.0
✕Kevan Smith 2020 · MLB	32	53→54	44→50	49→40	48	259/314/378	119	292	12	5	16%	6%	97	+1.1	229/296/348	119	289	11	7	23%	8%	83	+0.1	162/217/192	30	235	0	0	29%	7%	17	-0.8
✕Kevin Plawecki 2023 · MLB	32	51→59	41→45	47→30	50	246/311/346	100	286	9	4	17%	7%	88	+0.4	226/285/335	109	270	11	3	20%	7%	76	-0.4	215/272/316	101	256	10	0	20%	7%	63	-0.6
✕Nick Hundley 2016 · MLB	32	52→45	48→55	42→40	43	260/302/402	142	313	15	6	22%	6%	97	+1.1	251/295/414	163	307	18	4	23%	6%	98	+1.2	243/288/414	171	299	19	1	25%	6%	97	+0.6
✕Elias Díaz 2023 · MLB	32	44→54	50	42→45	48	227/286/381	154	256	18	2	20%	7%	87	+0.4	245/298/378	133	297	14	2	22%	7%	91	+0.6	245/298/371	126	300	14	1	22%	6%	90	+0.4
✕Curt Casali 2019 · MLB	30	47	45→50	38→30	47	235/297/355	120	288	13	3	23%	7%	85	+0.2	238/316/395	157	299	19	5	26%	9%	102	+1.5	217/309/355	139	284	17	0	28%	11%	90	+0.2
✕Adonis García 2017 · MLB	32	53→54	48→50	45→50	42	264/295/401	137	294	16	6	17%	3%	95	+0.9	240/282/366	126	271	15	11	17%	4%	82	-0.0	207/253/301	95	236	12	15	18%	4%	56	-0.7
✕Austin Wynns 2023 · MLB	32	51	45	48→40	50	251/319/369	117	301	13	5	21%	8%	97	+1.1	234/291/359	125	301	13	5	26%	7%	84	+0.1	220/267/354	134	290	15	1	29%	5%	74	-0.1
✕Edgar Gonzalez 2011 · MLB	33	48→56	48→45	38→50	48	242/306/381	139	289	15	6	22%	8%	95	+0.9	244/292/353	109	288	11	13	19%	6%	82	-0.0	245/288/341	96	292	10	15	19%	5%	74	-0.3
✕Dan Wilson 2001 · MLB	32	47→52	44→45	41→40	50	230/288/344	114	262	12	5	17%	8%	79	-0.2	256/297/374	118	299	12	4	18%	5%	88	+0.5	260/297/370	110	304	11	2	18%	5%	88	+0.3
✕Pedro Diaz 2011 · AAA	32	51→47	41→45	42→45	46	244/294/342	98	288	9	5	18%	6%	80	-0.1	223/262/325	102	282	9	6	24%	5%	64	-1.3	223/242/333	110	268	13	1	22%	2%	57	-0.6
✕Russ Johnson 2006 · MLB	33	47→45	47→50	42→45	49	234/296/375	141	272	13	9	19%	8%	89	+0.5	225/289/354	129	245	14	6	14%	8%	82	-0.0	217/284/338	121	230	13	4	12%	8%	74	-0.4
✕Austin Romine 2021 · MLB	32	50→54	48→50	45	40	252/290/391	139	319	16	5	26%	5%	91	+0.6	221/261/335	114	301	13	5	30%	5%	67	-1.1	173/207/252	78	235	10	0	31%	4%	26	-1.3
✕Angel Berroa 2009 · MLB	32	47→56	44→50	44→50	44	231/276/344	113	261	11	5	17%	5%	74	-0.5	220/263/332	112	256	11	7	18%	4%	67	-1.1	244/286/384	140	291	15	5	21%	4%	86	+0.2
✕Chris Gomez 2004 · MLB	33	52→54	45	45→40	47	252/291/385	132	267	11	5	11%	5%	89	+0.5	269/325/358	89	292	7	6	10%	7%	95	+1.0	284/345/353	69	309	5	5	9%	8%	102	+0.6
✕A.J. Ellis 2013 · MLB	32	52→54	44→45	41→40	57	254/348/376	122	301	12	2	19%	11%	109	+2.0	232/325/351	119	271	12	2	18%	11%	95	+1.0	219/320/329	110	252	11	0	17%	12%	91	+0.4
✕Mike Redmond 2004 · MLB	33	55	40	41→30	49	261/319/356	95	288	7	3	12%	6%	93	+0.8	267/319/360	93	294	6	4	11%	5%	94	+0.9	307/346/374	67	335	2	0	9%	4%	107	+0.7