José Fermín — OGILVIE

José Fermín2B St. Louis Cardinals

Age 27 R/R 5'10" / 198 lbs MLB Svc 1.436 · Ctrl thru 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION173 act + 177 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL -51-4vR 118

AVG/OBP/SLG.234 / .309 / .361

PA177

HR4

SB6

K%15

BB%8

BABIP256

ISO127

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT60

Whiff%

902.0%

xwOBA

260.281

POWER50

Barrel%

101.2

Avg EV

1085.5

Bat Spd

1467.5

EYE60

Chase%

9011.1%

SPEED60

Sprint

4627.3

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 138 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

—

wRC+

-52

118

▶▶R

wOBA

118

340

▶▶R

ISO

—

123

—

BABIP

108

312

▶▶R

7.1%

16.7%

◀◀L

BB%

4.8%

12.5%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 1.436 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.4	$1M	+$1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$10M
2028	Arb-1	$3M	+1.2	$8M	+$6M
2029	Arb-2	$4M	+1.1	$7M	+$4M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$8M		$27M	+$21M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	17	ROK	DSL Indians	—	66	61	10	3	1	0	4	16	0	2	2	164	215	246	461	82	217	24	6	211	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	17	ROK	DSL Indians	—	66	58	13	4	2	0	7	11	0	2	2	224	308	362	670	138	271	17	11	297	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK	AZL Indians	—	182	168	29	8	1	1	3	27	7	5	2	173	219	250	469	77	197	15	2	194	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK	AZL Indians	—	182	166	38	11	1	1	5	19	7	5	2	229	281	325	606	96	250	10	3	270	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A	Lake County Captains	—	456	410	98	9	2	5	26	53	11	28	9	239	302	307	609	68	262	12	6	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A	Lake County Captains	—	456	393	115	12	2	6	42	40	11	28	9	293	376	379	755	87	311	9	9	339	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	336	302	64	10	1	7	17	51	10	4	4	212	277	321	598	109	231	15	5	262	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	336	295	76	15	2	6	23	38	10	4	4	258	331	383	714	125	276	11	7	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	330	278	59	9	0	5	34	51	9	9	4	212	318	299	616	86	240	15	10	276	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	330	270	58	11	0	6	42	46	9	9	4	215	340	322	662	107	235	14	13	302	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA	5 teams	—	236	203	41	7	1	6	23	24	6	7	1	202	302	335	637	133	200	10	10	283	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA	5 teams	—	236	191	50	11	1	5	35	18	6	7	1	262	392	408	801	147	265	8	15	359	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA	3 teams	—	335	293	73	15	1	7	31	42	7	20	3	249	335	379	714	130	268	13	9	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA	3 teams	—	335	282	76	16	1	8	42	35	7	20	3	270	378	418	796	149	282	10	13	356	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA	2 teams	—	363	309	82	23	0	9	41	43	10	22	7	265	369	427	797	162	283	12	11	352	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA	2 teams	—	363	297	88	28	0	8	53	35	10	22	7	296	419	471	891	175	314	10	15	397	162	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	27	MLB	STL	—	173	159	41	9	0	4	12	25	0	3	0	258	310	390	700	132	282	14	7	306	93	-1	+1	-0	-2	+5	0.2
YTD	27	MLB	STL	—	173	158	41	9	0	4	12	25	0	3	0	259	310	392	702	133	285	14	7	310	95	-1	+1	-0	-2	+5	0.2
ROS	27	MLB	STL	100%	177	158	37	8	0	4	15	26	2	6	1	234	309	361	669	127	260	15	8	310	95	-1	+1	+1	+1	+5	0.7
ROS	27	MLB	STL	100%	177	158	37	8	0	4	15	26	2	6	1	234	309	361	669	127	260	15	8	299	87	-3	+1	+1	+1	+5	0.5
FULL	27	MLB	STL	—	350	317	78	17	0	8	27	51	2	9	1	246	309	375	685	129	269	15	8	303	90	-4	+1	+1	-1	+10	0.7
TOT	27	MLB	STL	—	350	317	78	17	0	8	27	51	2	9	1	246	309	375	685	129	269	15	8	308	94	-2	+1	+1	-1	+10	0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	STL	92%	378	337	81	18	1	9	33	57	5	13	3	240	317	380	697	139	259	15	9	309	94	-2	+1	+2	+1	+11	1.3
2028	29	MLB	STL	92%	379	337	80	17	1	9	34	58	5	12	2	237	316	374	690	136	258	15	9	307	93	-3	+2	+1	+1	+11	1.2
2029	30	MLB	STL	92%	380	338	79	17	1	8	34	59	5	11	2	234	313	361	674	127	257	16	9	304	91	-4	+1	+0	+1	+11	1.0
2027	28	MLB	STL	92%	348	309	74	16	1	8	31	52	5	12	2	239	319	375	694	136	259	15	9	298	86	-5	+2	+2	+1	+10	0.9
2028	29	MLB	STL	92%	349	310	74	16	1	8	31	53	5	11	2	239	318	374	692	135	258	15	9	297	85	-6	+1	+1	+1	+10	0.8
2029	30	MLB	STL	92%	350	311	73	16	0	8	31	54	5	10	2	235	314	363	677	129	257	15	9	294	83	-7	+1	+0	+1	+10	0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1434	1270	298	63	3	29	129	214	21	43	11	235	315	357	673	123	260	15	9	294	83	-27	+4	+5	+8	+41	3.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	135	29	1	13	58	97	10	19	5	234	315	356	671	122	260	15	9	294	83	-12	+2	+2	+3	+18	1.4
Career	—			—	3618	3194	733	144	10	70	295	507	77	139	40	229	310	347	656	117	251	14	8	291	81	-77	+12	+5	+13	+103	5.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	132	26	2	13	53	91	14	25	7	230	310	350	661	120	251	14	8	291	81	-14	+2	+1	+2	+18	1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	17	ROK	DSL Indians	—	66	58	13	4	2	0	7	11	0	2	2	224	308	362	670	138	271	17	11	297	85	-1	-0	—	—	+2	0.0
2017	18	ROK	AZL Indians	—	182	166	38	11	1	1	5	19	7	5	2	229	281	325	606	96	250	10	3	270	65	-7	+0	—	—	+5	-0.2
2019	20	A	Lake County Captains	—	456	393	115	12	2	6	42	40	11	28	9	293	376	379	755	87	311	9	9	339	117	+9	+2	—	—	+13	2.4
2021	22	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	336	295	76	15	2	6	23	38	10	4	4	258	331	383	714	125	276	11	7	316	100	+0	-1	—	—	+10	0.9
2022	23	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	330	270	58	11	0	6	42	46	9	9	4	215	340	322	662	107	235	14	13	302	89	-4	+0	—	—	+9	0.6
2023	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	61	51	12	1	0	0	6	8	2	0	1	235	339	255	594	20	279	13	10	277	70	-2	-0	+1	+1	+2	0.1
2023	24	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	81	66	15	3	1	4	12	5	2	1	0	227	362	485	847	258	190	6	15	370	141	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
2023	24	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	23	20	4	1	0	1	3	0	0	1	0	200	304	400	704	200	158	0	13	316	100	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2023	24	ROK	FCL Cardinals	—	19	17	3	1	0	0	2	3	0	1	0	176	263	235	498	59	214	16	11	236	39	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2023	24	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	52	37	16	5	0	0	12	2	2	4	0	432	588	568	1.156	135	444	4	23	504	244	+8	+1	—	—	+1	1.1
2024	25	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	79	71	11	1	1	0	7	11	1	2	1	155	241	197	438	42	183	14	9	211	20	-7	+0	-2	+1	+2	-0.6
2024	25	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	240	196	61	13	0	8	34	22	6	18	2	311	428	500	928	189	315	9	14	407	170	+19	+3	—	—	+7	2.9
2024	25	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	16	15	4	2	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	267	312	400	713	133	308	12	6	317	101	+0	+0	—	—	+0	0.0
2025	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	70	60	17	5	0	1	8	10	1	2	2	283	377	417	793	133	327	14	11	354	129	+2	-0	+2	+1	+2	0.7
2025	26	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	293	237	71	23	0	7	45	25	9	20	5	300	430	485	915	186	311	9	15	407	170	+23	+2	—	—	+8	3.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	210	182	40	7	1	1	21	29	4	4	4	220	314	286	600	66	257	14	10	278	71	-7	-1	+0	+3	+6	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Eric Sogardlast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,484 PA	10	2,484	26	46	246	312	337	+10	+22	6.0	6.6
	/162	664	7	12	246	312	337	+2.7	+5.9	1.6	pk7: 7
#2Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	10	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
	/162	664	10	19	228	318	337	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	1,779	37	55	236	312	361	+6	-0	4.4	4.6
	/162	664	14	21	236	312	361	+2.4	-0.1	1.6	pk7: 5
#3Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	9	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
	/162	664	10	21	239	286	365	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#4Ehire Adrianzalast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,519 PA	9	1,519	20	19	240	310	353	+10	+13	4.0	4.4
	/162	664	9	8	240	310	353	+4.2	+5.5	1.8	pk7: 5
#5Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	7	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
#5Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	/162	664	11	16	238	326	354	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#6Chris Woodwardlast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,835 PA	9	1,835	33	9	242	299	370	+2	-0	2.2	2.7
	/162	664	12	3	242	299	370	+0.6	-0.0	0.8	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
José Fermín (OGILVIE)	27	60	50	60	60	246/309/375	129	269	8	9	15%	8%	94	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Desmond Jennings 2014 · MLB	27	49→59	49→50	57→60	53	246/323/405	159	288	16	24	20%	10%	107	+2.2	235/308/375	140	281	14	16	20%	9%	93	+1.3	225/299/356	131	269	13	15	21%	9%	82	+0.3
●Austin Barnes 2017 · MLB	27	51→55	45→50	55→50	50	247/310/378	131	284	12	17	18%	8%	94	+1.3	242/334/385	143	295	14	12	21%	11%	107	+2.2	233/342/385	152	286	16	8	23%	12%	104	+0.9
✕Angel Berroa 2004 · MLB	27	54→56	48→55	56→50	46	270/325/423	153	301	15	18	16%	5%	112	+2.6	259/302/382	123	296	11	12	16%	4%	92	+1.2	254/297/421	167	303	20	5	23%	4%	99	+1.0
✕Shane Robinson 2012 · MLB	27	50→59	45	53→55	49	247/299/376	129	266	12	17	13%	6%	89	+1.0	248/312/354	106	285	9	13	16%	8%	89	+0.9	244/314/326	82	285	5	11	15%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Pokey Reese 2001 · MLB	28	51→55	46→45	60→55	52	250/315/384	134	277	13	26	15%	8%	98	+1.6	240/304/351	111	281	10	23	17%	8%	85	+0.7	235/299/330	95	280	8	24	18%	8%	71	-0.2
●Cameron Maybin 2014 · MLB	27	49→59	46→50	57→55	50	243/308/374	131	289	13	28	20%	8%	92	+1.2	252/314/365	113	305	10	18	19%	8%	92	+1.2	259/332/373	114	311	10	30	19%	9%	99	+1.4
✕Hernán Pérez 2019 · MLB	28	51→55	50→55	55	43	260/295/410	150	298	18	21	20%	5%	96	+1.5	243/287/397	154	298	19	16	24%	6%	90	+1.0	239/283/364	126	302	16	24	26%	5%	78	+0.1
●Jerry Hairston Jr. 2003 · MLB	27	52→55	42→50	54→55	53	247/315/359	112	269	8	25	12%	8%	92	+1.2	262/335/368	106	288	6	22	11%	8%	102	+1.9	265/324/406	141	284	14	15	12%	7%	104	+1.5
✕Manuel Margot 2021 · MLB	26	50→53	46→50	54→60	51	248/309/388	140	286	13	24	18%	8%	96	+1.5	254/311/376	122	295	11	17	17%	7%	94	+1.3	256/312/371	114	298	10	15	17%	7%	89	+0.7
●Rafael Furcal 2005 · MLB	27	57→63	46→50	57→60	55	279/339/416	137	300	12	23	12%	8%	115	+2.8	282/347/417	135	309	11	29	12%	9%	119	+3.1	282/349/406	124	310	10	31	12%	9%	113	+3.0
✕Jose Aguilar 2017 · AAA	27	53→61	42→45	53→55	48	254/312/363	109	288	9	19	15%	6%	91	+1.1	252/308/368	116	299	11	20	19%	6%	91	+1.1	267/329/390	122	322	10	23	19%	6%	101	+0.9
✕Óscar Mercado 2022 · MLB	27	44→54	48→55	55→60	49	222/290/367	145	256	15	20	20%	7%	83	+0.6	226/288/385	159	263	18	23	21%	7%	88	+0.9	219/280/393	174	249	21	28	21%	6%	84	+0.4
●TJ Friedl 2023 · MLB	27	46→54	47→50	55	48	231/299/374	143	270	14	16	20%	7%	89	+0.9	245/325/396	151	276	16	19	17%	9%	106	+2.2	248/339/390	142	278	16	18	16%	10%	108	+2.0
✕Damian Jackson 2001 · MLB	27	53→54	43→45	58→55	57	251/336/375	124	308	8	26	20%	11%	104	+2.0	247/317/353	106	311	6	27	21%	9%	91	+1.1	255/323/351	95	294	7	32	15%	8%	90	+0.5
✕Kevin Thompson 2007 · MLB	27	49→52	46→50	56→60	49	242/309/386	144	291	12	25	21%	8%	96	+1.5	234/298/355	121	289	10	29	21%	7%	83	+0.6	238/304/349	111	297	8	38	21%	8%	80	+0.2
✕Carlos Febles 2003 · MLB	27	50→52	42→40	53→55	54	242/319/350	108	278	9	18	16%	9%	91	+1.1	237/308/330	93	275	8	17	16%	8%	81	+0.4	229/292/254	25	269	0	22	14%	6%	53	-0.6
●Jordany Valdespin 2015 · MLB	27	48→53	48→50	49→55	50	241/302/382	141	265	16	20	16%	7%	92	+1.2	249/299/349	100	289	9	16	16%	6%	82	+0.5	267/313/352	85	313	6	18	16%	5%	85	+0.4
●Ha-Seong Kim 2023 · MLB	27	49→53	47→50	52→60	51	244/315/389	145	283	14	12	19%	8%	100	+1.7	250/335/390	140	290	15	25	18%	11%	108	+2.3	245/337/377	132	283	15	31	18%	12%	102	+1.5
✕Fernando Rios 2006 · AAA	27	55	45→40	55→50	48	270/316/393	123	282	13	15	10%	5%	101	+1.8	251/304/351	100	287	8	13	15%	6%	85	+0.7	246/304/323	77	286	4	8	15%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Luis Rivas 2005 · MLB	25	51→55	47→50	58→55	47	251/293/397	146	274	13	20	14%	5%	92	+1.2	232/274/343	111	262	10	14	15%	5%	69	-0.4	223/278/325	101	251	9	11	15%	6%	64	-0.4