Jake Meyers

CF Houston Astros

Age 31 R/L 6'0" / 200 lbs MLB HR -6% Svc 4.930 · Ctrl thru 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBIL-6040-MANArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	28	MLBHOU	513	.219/.289/.360	13	11	80	1.1
2025	29	MLBHOU	381	.292/.355/.373	3	16	106	2.0
2026	30	AAA/AAHOU	159	.212/.277/.315	2	1	29	—	.181/.226/.254
2026	30	MLBHOU	153	.213/.270/.326	3	1	66	-0.3
2027PROJ	31	MLBHOU	146	.244/.306/.354	2	3	85	0.3
2028PROJ	32	MLBHOU	259	.238/.299/.340	4	4	79	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.9 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.930First FA2029

2027Arb-2$1M2028Arb-3$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed60

xwOBA47

Barrel%34

Avg EV32

Bat Spd17

CompsDanny Mendick (age 30) · Garrett Stubbs (age 31) · Pokey Reese (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 8685vR 79

AVG/OBP/SLG.244 / .306 / .354

PA146

HR2

K%21

BB%7

BABIP298

ISO104

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

xAVG

390.242

POWER45

Barrel%

346.1

Avg EV

3287.8

Bat Spd

1767.8

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED55

Sprint

6027.9

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 920 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

217

703

—

wRC+

106

◀◀L

wOBA

325

301

◀L

ISO

140

111

◀◀L

BABIP

314

300

◀L

19.8%

20.6%

◀L

BB%

6.9%

7.7%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.930 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.2M
2028	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$1M		$0.8M	+$0.2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	22	A+	Buies Creek Astros	—	233	196	49	13	0	3	28	40	2	3	7	250	350	362	712	112	289	17	12	317	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	257	225	68	18	3	5	23	43	7	13	7	302	384	476	860	173	354	17	9	380	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	100	89	19	0	1	1	11	20	0	3	3	213	300	270	570	56	265	20	11	268	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	384	341	88	28	3	8	33	84	8	9	4	258	338	428	766	170	319	22	9	340	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB	Houston Astros	—	163	146	38	8	0	6	10	50	4	3	0	260	325	438	763	178	352	31	6	334	111	+2	+1	+3	+2	+4	1.1
2021	25	AAA	Sugar Land Skeeters	—	304	271	93	17	2	16	25	59	6	10	3	343	411	598	1.008	255	389	19	8	436	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB	Houston Astros	—	160	150	34	6	2	1	7	54	2	2	1	227	270	313	584	87	344	34	4	262	62	-7	+0	+5	+1	+3	0.2
2022	26	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	170	144	44	6	1	7	25	30	0	2	0	306	408	507	915	201	343	18	15	403	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB	Houston Astros	—	341	309	70	16	1	10	26	88	5	5	2	227	297	382	679	155	283	26	8	304	90	-4	+0	+4	+1	+7	0.9
2024	28	MLB	Houston Astros	—	513	461	101	20	3	13	35	117	10	11	3	219	289	360	649	141	263	23	7	289	80	-12	+1	+9	+2	+11	1.1
2025	29	MLB	Houston Astros	—	381	343	100	15	2	3	31	67	3	16	5	292	355	373	729	82	353	18	8	328	106	+3	+1	+6	+1	+8	2.0
2025	29	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	23	18	4	1	0	0	5	2	0	0	0	222	391	278	669	56	250	9	22	326	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB	Houston Astros	—	153	141	30	7	0	3	10	31	1	1	2	213	270	326	596	113	250	20	7	268	66	-6	-1	-0	+1	+3	-0.3
2026	30	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	143	130	30	6	1	2	12	31	1	1	2	231	301	338	639	108	289	22	8	291	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	16	16	1	1	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	62	62	125	188	62	83	25	0	80	-75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1711	1550	373	72	8	36	119	407	25	38	13	241	305	367	672	126	302	24	7	301	90	-21	+2	+27	+8	+37	5.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	22	A+ MLE	Buies Creek Astros	—	233	207	43	11	0	3	17	58	2	3	7	208	274	304	579	97	255	25	7	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	257	232	60	14	3	4	16	60	7	13	7	259	325	397	722	138	322	23	6	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	100	92	17	0	1	1	8	26	0	3	3	185	250	239	489	54	235	26	8	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+ MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	384	353	67	19	2	7	21	121	8	9	4	190	251	314	566	125	258	32	5	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	163	146	38	8	0	6	10	50	4	3	0	260	325	438	763	178	352	31	6	332	111	+2	+1	+3	+2	+4	1.1
2021	25	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Skeeters	—	304	278	82	15	2	12	18	71	6	10	3	295	351	493	844	198	354	23	6	365	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	160	150	34	6	2	1	7	54	2	2	1	227	270	313	584	87	344	34	4	259	62	-7	+0	+5	+1	+3	0.2
2022	26	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	170	151	41	5	1	6	18	37	0	2	0	272	349	437	786	166	321	22	11	342	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	341	309	69	15	1	10	26	88	5	5	2	223	294	375	670	152	283	26	8	302	90	-4	+0	+4	+1	+7	0.9
2024	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	513	461	100	19	3	13	35	117	10	11	3	217	287	356	642	139	263	23	7	287	80	-12	+1	+9	+2	+11	1.1
2025	29	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	381	343	99	14	2	3	31	67	3	16	5	289	353	367	720	79	353	18	8	325	106	+3	+1	+6	+1	+8	2.0
2025	29	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	23	20	4	1	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	200	304	250	554	50	226	9	13	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	153	141	30	7	0	3	10	31	1	1	2	213	270	326	596	113	250	20	7	266	66	-6	-1	-0	+1	+3	-0.3
2026	30	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	143	134	26	5	1	1	8	37	1	1	2	194	245	269	513	75	256	26	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	16	16	1	1	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	62	62	125	188	62	66	31	0	57	-75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	490	439	103	25	3	7	33	118	9	16	14	235	301	353	655	118	299	24	7	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	490	421	117	31	3	8	51	83	9	16	14	278	368	423	791	145	323	17	10	350	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	484	446	83	19	3	8	28	147	8	12	7	186	247	296	543	110	256	30	6	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	484	430	107	28	4	9	44	104	8	12	7	249	330	395	725	147	307	21	9	325	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	467	424	120	23	2	18	28	121	10	13	3	283	342	474	816	191	354	26	6	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	467	417	131	25	2	22	35	109	10	13	3	314	381	542	923	228	377	23	7	401	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	330	301	75	11	3	7	25	91	2	4	1	249	311	375	686	126	332	28	8	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	330	294	78	12	3	8	32	84	2	4	1	265	341	408	750	143	343	25	10	335	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	341	309	69	15	1	10	26	88	5	5	2	223	294	375	670	152	278	26	8	302	90	-4	+0	+4	+1	+7	0.9
2023	27	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	341	309	70	16	1	10	26	88	5	5	2	227	297	382	679	155	283	26	8	304	90	-4	+0	+4	+1	+7	0.9
2024	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	513	461	100	19	3	13	35	117	10	11	3	217	287	356	642	139	260	23	7	287	80	-12	+1	+9	+2	+11	1.1
2024	28	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	513	461	101	20	3	13	35	117	10	11	3	219	289	360	649	141	263	23	7	289	80	-12	+1	+9	+2	+11	1.1
2025	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	404	363	103	15	2	3	34	69	3	16	5	284	350	361	711	77	341	17	8	321	103	+2	+1	+6	+1	+9	1.9
2025	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	404	361	104	16	2	3	36	69	3	16	5	288	357	368	726	80	347	17	9	328	103	+2	+1	+6	+1	+9	1.9
2026	30	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	312	291	56	12	1	4	18	73	2	2	4	192	244	282	526	89	242	23	6	238	47	-20	-1	-0	+1	+7	-1.3
2026	30	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	312	287	61	14	1	5	22	66	2	2	4	213	273	321	594	108	258	21	7	269	47	-20	-1	-0	+1	+7	-1.3
2018	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	490	445	103	25	3	7	33	118	9	16	14	231	301	348	650	117	290	24	7	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	484	445	83	19	3	8	28	147	8	12	7	187	247	297	544	110	253	30	6	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	467	426	120	23	2	18	28	121	10	13	3	282	342	472	814	190	353	26	6	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	330	300	75	11	3	7	25	91	2	4	1	250	311	377	688	127	332	28	8	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	341	307	69	15	1	10	26	88	5	5	2	225	294	378	672	153	283	26	8	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	513	463	100	19	3	13	35	117	10	11	3	216	287	354	641	138	263	23	7	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	404	364	103	15	2	3	34	69	3	16	5	283	350	360	710	77	346	17	8	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	312	289	56	12	1	4	18	73	2	2	4	194	244	284	528	90	243	23	6	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	513	463	100	19	3	13	35	117	10	11	3	216	287	354	641	138	263	23	7	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	404	364	103	15	2	3	34	69	3	16	5	283	350	360	710	77	346	17	8	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	312	289	56	12	1	4	18	73	2	2	4	194	244	284	528	90	243	23	6	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	31	MLB MLE	HOU	100%	349	318	77	13	2	6	25	73	3	8	2	241	303	350	653	109	293	21	7	294	85	-6	+1	+3	+1	+8	0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	31	MLB CTX	HOU	100%	146	134	32	6	1	2	10	31	1	3	1	244	306	354	660	110	298	21	7	297	85	-3	+0	+1	+1	+3	0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	HOU	100%	259	237	55	9	1	4	18	56	2	4	1	235	297	336	633	101	289	22	7	285	79	-6	+0	-1	+1	+6	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	HOU	100%	259	237	56	10	1	4	18	56	2	4	1	238	299	340	639	102	293	22	7	288	79	-6	+0	-1	+1	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1970	1787	429	82	9	40	137	463	27	42	14	240	304	363	667	123	300	24	7	299	83	-28	+3	+26	+9	+43	5.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	141	27	3	13	45	153	9	14	5	239	303	361	664	122	299	24	7	299	83	-9	+1	+8	+3	+14	1.8
Career	—	MLE		—	3746	3405	796	154	20	76	255	911	52	86	41	234	297	358	655	124	295	24	7	291	83	-30	+3	+27	+10	+46	5.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	591	138	27	3	13	44	158	9	15	7	234	297	355	652	122	295	24	7	291	83	-9	+1	+8	+3	+14	1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 143 PAwOBA .283 → .229 (−54)K% 21.7% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.68%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	26.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.39%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.972	5.63%
HBP% /PA	0.70%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.64%
Singles /BIP	21.21%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.009	×0.972	19.34%
Doubles /BIP	6.06%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.009	×0.972	4.93%
Triples /BIP	1.01%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.009	×0.972	0.96%
Home runs /BIP	2.02%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.972	1.37%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.

Result: wOBA .283 → .229; ISO .108 → .082; BABIP .289 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 16 PAwOBA .078 → .057 (−20)K% 25.0% → 30.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	30.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.948	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.870	—	×0.948	0.00%
Singles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×0.948	0.00%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×0.948	6.64%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.940	—	×0.948	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.948	0.00%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .078 → .057; ISO .062 → .046; BABIP .083 → .066. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 23 PAwOBA .319 → .263 (−56)K% 8.7% → 10.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	8.70%	÷0.995	×1.200	—	—	10.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	21.74%	÷1.056	×0.690	—	×0.982	13.95%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.75%	÷1.012	×0.930	—	×0.982	16.91%
Doubles /BIP	6.25%	÷0.891	×0.830	—	×0.982	5.72%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.961	×0.700	—	×0.982	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 102, 2B 78, 3B 80, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .319 → .263; ISO .056 → .055; BABIP .250 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 170 PAwOBA .393 → .342 (−51)K% 17.6% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.65%	÷0.986	×1.200	—	—	21.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.12%	÷0.953	×0.690	—	×1.018	10.40%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.32%	÷0.982	×0.930	×0.996	×1.018	25.26%
Doubles /BIP	5.26%	÷0.952	×0.830	×0.996	×1.018	4.65%
Triples /BIP	0.88%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.996	×1.018	0.96%
Home runs /BIP	6.14%	÷0.917	×0.700	—	×1.018	4.77%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 96, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 97, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .393 → .342; ISO .201 → .168; BABIP .343 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASugar Land Skeeters · 304 PAwOBA .427 → .365 (−63)K% 19.4% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.41%	÷1.002	×1.200	—	—	23.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.22%	÷0.975	×0.690	—	×1.033	6.01%
HBP% /PA	1.97%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	1.92%
Singles /BIP	27.36%	÷1.023	×0.930	×0.994	×1.033	25.53%
Doubles /BIP	8.02%	÷0.923	×0.830	×0.994	×1.033	7.40%
Triples /BIP	0.94%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.994	×1.033	0.77%
Home runs /BIP	7.55%	÷0.935	×0.700	—	×1.033	5.83%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 105, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .427 → .365; ISO .255 → .204; BABIP .389 → .354. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Fayetteville Woodpeckers · 384 PAwOBA .333 → .244 (−89)K% 21.9% → 31.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.88%	÷0.983	×1.420	—	—	31.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.59%	÷1.000	×0.630	—	×0.998	5.40%
HBP% /PA	2.08%	—	×0.860	—	×0.998	1.79%
Singles /BIP	19.07%	÷1.029	×0.940	×0.950	×0.998	16.51%
Doubles /BIP	10.89%	÷1.068	×0.830	×0.950	×0.998	8.03%
Triples /BIP	1.17%	÷1.150	×0.800	×0.950	×0.998	0.77%
Home runs /BIP	3.11%	÷0.969	×0.900	—	×0.998	2.88%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 106, 2B 114, 3B 130, K 97, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .333 → .244; ISO .170 → .126; BABIP .319 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 100 PAwOBA .261 → .210 (−51)K% 20.0% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷0.958	×1.220	—	—	25.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.00%	÷1.043	×0.700	—	×1.027	7.58%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.64%	÷1.011	×0.920	×0.950	×1.027	21.87%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.949	×0.840	×0.950	×1.027	0.00%
Triples /BIP	1.45%	÷0.995	×0.940	×0.950	×1.027	1.34%
Home runs /BIP	1.45%	÷1.067	×0.800	—	×1.027	1.12%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 102, 2B 90, 3B 99, K 92, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .261 → .210; ISO .056 → .045; BABIP .265 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AQuad Cities River Bandits · 257 PAwOBA .371 → .308 (−63)K% 16.7% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.73%	÷0.976	×1.360	—	—	23.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.95%	÷0.968	×0.690	—	—	6.38%
HBP% /PA	2.72%	—	×0.780	—	—	2.12%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷0.939	×0.920	×0.981	—	22.18%
Doubles /BIP	9.89%	÷1.012	×0.830	×0.981	—	7.96%
Triples /BIP	1.65%	÷0.973	×0.910	×0.981	—	1.51%
Home runs /BIP	2.75%	÷0.973	×0.800	—	—	2.26%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 88, 2B 102, 3B 95, K 95, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .371 → .308; ISO .173 → .138; BABIP .354 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Juan Lagareslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,508 PA	3.8	2,508	31	45	250	291	360	+8	+49	7.3	7.7
/162	664	8	12	+2.1	+13.0	1.9	pk7: 8
#2Peter Bourjoslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,241 PA	3.4	2,241	42	66	241	298	382	-0	+38	7.4	7.5
/162	664	12	20	-0.1	+11.3	2.2	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	3.2	2,132	43	45	241	301	363	+8	+33	3.7	3.8
/162	664	13	14	+2.4	+10.3	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#4Jacob Brumfield'92-'99 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,747 PA	2.6	1,747	32	74	244*	305*	386*	-3	+10	3.1	3.1
/162	664	12	28	-1.2	+3.8	1.2	pk7: 3
#5Steve Lyons'85-'93 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,388 PA	3.6	2,388	19	42	250*	302*	360*	-4	+15	1.5	2.2
/162	664	5	12	-1.2	+4.2	0.4	pk7: 3
#6Rick Bosetti'76-'82 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,656 PA	2.5	1,656	17	30	243*	286*	358*	+3	+16	0.6	0.6
/162	664	7	12	+1.4	+6.5	0.2	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jake Meyers (OGILVIE)	31	50	45	55	50	239/301/347	108	293	3	4	21%	7%	85	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Danny Mendick 2024 · MLB	30	48→47	43→45	50	48	234/297/344	110	280	11	13	20%	7%	82	+0.0	221/276/358	137	270	15	14	24%	6%	78	-0.3	197/245/343	146	238	18	15	26%	5%	61	-0.9
✕Garrett Stubbs 2024 · MLB	31	47	45	54→50	51	229/307/352	123	286	12	11	24%	9%	88	+0.4	218/290/318	100	282	10	12	25%	8%	74	-0.5	204/276/286	82	265	9	12	25%	7%	61	-0.5
✕Pokey Reese 2004 · MLB	31	49→54	41→45	55	49	237/296/333	96	283	8	20	19%	7%	79	-0.2	227/282/330	103	281	10	14	22%	7%	73	-0.6	214/261/294	79	270	7	13	22%	6%	57	-0.8
✕Miguel Cairo 2005 · MLB	31	54→58	44→45	52→55	47	259/312/382	123	282	10	12	13%	5%	97	+1.1	244/293/336	92	271	5	21	12%	5%	78	-0.3	247/304/364	118	270	11	10	13%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Eric Campbell 2018 · MLB	31	48→56	43→45	49→50	52	234/318/344	110	287	10	12	21%	9%	91	+0.6	233/314/359	126	284	12	10	21%	9%	93	+0.8	228/314/352	124	275	12	9	21%	10%	90	+0.4
✕Adrián Sanchez 2022 · MLB	31	52→48	42→45	48→50	43	250/289/353	103	296	9	13	19%	5%	81	-0.1	224/267/327	103	282	7	10	22%	5%	67	-1.1	207/244/298	91	266	3	6	22%	5%	47	-1.1
✕Elian Herrera 2016 · MLB	31	52→57	42→40	50→60	44	251/293/357	107	311	9	12	22%	6%	83	+0.1	231/286/338	107	305	10	9	26%	7%	76	-0.4	175/238/190	15	266	0	0	32%	8%	24	-0.8
✕Steve Tolleson 2014 · MLB	30	48→53	42→45	49→50	49	231/298/334	103	289	9	15	22%	8%	80	-0.1	226/293/333	107	293	9	15	24%	8%	78	-0.3	232/293/334	102	299	8	18	24%	7%	77	-0.2
✕Andy Burns 2022 · MLB	31	43→53	47→50	51→55	51	217/297/356	140	273	15	15	25%	10%	86	+0.3	203/274/313	110	283	11	12	30%	9%	68	-1.0	174/245/259	85	244	9	8	31%	8%	42	-1.6
✕Gorkys Hernández 2019 · MLB	31	50→60	46→45	47→55	46	247/302/376	129	302	13	14	23%	7%	91	+0.7	206/274/339	133	282	15	16	31%	8%	73	-0.6	172/247/289	117	244	13	19	34%	8%	51	-2.1
✕Dixon Machado 2023 · MLB	31	52→57	39→45	48→55	50	249/309/334	85	289	6	10	16%	7%	84	+0.1	219/297/306	87	264	8	7	19%	9%	74	-0.6	196/285/266	70	239	7	4	20%	10%	59	-0.8
✕Joshua Rodriguez 2016 · AAA	31	45→53	44→50	48→50	45	224/285/345	121	285	12	9	25%	7%	78	-0.3	206/266/321	115	282	12	7	30%	7%	65	-1.2	208/267/328	119	277	15	4	29%	7%	65	-0.9
✕Cole Gillespie 2015 · MLB	31	49→57	46→50	50	50	243/308/376	133	288	14	12	21%	8%	94	+0.9	239/293/338	99	290	7	12	19%	7%	78	-0.3	236/286/317	82	289	3	11	19%	6%	71	-0.4
✕Jayson Nix 2014 · MLB	31	46→51	43→55	53→55	45	223/290/333	109	294	10	18	27%	7%	78	-0.3	196/247/285	89	257	8	10	26%	6%	50	-2.3	163/204/230	67	212	6	4	26%	4%	19	-1.9
✕Andy Green 2008 · MLB	31	49→55	46→50	48→45	51	238/306/373	135	279	12	8	19%	8%	93	+0.8	215/282/330	115	256	11	8	20%	8%	74	-0.6	205/272/314	109	244	11	7	20%	7%	64	-0.7
✕Josh Wilson 2012 · MLB	31	48→50	41→45	50	42	231/279/335	104	280	7	8	20%	4%	74	-0.6	199/246/292	93	265	8	7	27%	5%	51	-2.3	197/242/267	70	274	6	7	29%	3%	42	-1.6
✕Pablo Reyes 2024 · MLB	30	48→56	43→50	50→55	50	234/295/343	109	274	10	18	18%	8%	81	-0.1	238/302/355	117	282	12	19	19%	8%	86	+0.3	244/311/361	116	287	11	21	18%	8%	89	+0.3
✕Shawn O'Malley 2018 · MLB	30	48→58	41→40	52→60	47	232/296/334	102	292	8	16	23%	7%	80	-0.2	226/278/328	102	289	9	11	24%	6%	71	-0.8	230/263/298	67	298	2	9	23%	4%	55	-0.6
✕Ryan Roberts 2011 · MLB	30	47→52	45→50	52→55	51	230/299/358	127	277	12	16	21%	9%	86	+0.3	229/301/369	140	267	16	15	20%	9%	90	+0.6	227/300/361	134	261	16	13	19%	9%	88	+0.4
✕Hernán Pérez 2022 · MLB	31	47→57	48→50	52→55	43	238/285/377	138	300	16	15	26%	6%	86	+0.3	218/264/334	116	278	13	20	26%	5%	68	-1.0	201/245/310	110	254	13	20	26%	5%	54	-1.0

Jake Meyers

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps