Matt Vierling — OGILVIE

Matt VierlingCF Detroit Tigers

Age 29 R/R 6'1" / 205 lbs MLB HR -8% Svc 4.151 · Ctrl thru 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 346 proj PA

wRC+†vL 10298vR 87

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA291

HR0

K%22

BB%7

BABIP297

ISO138

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT55

Whiff%

905.2%

xAVG

520.253

POWER50

Barrel%

437.2

Avg EV

5589.5

Bat Spd

4570.8

EYE60

Chase%

9017.9%

SPEED55

Sprint

7128.3

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 719 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

219

500

—

wRC+

105

◀L

wOBA

323

309

◀L

ISO

118

167

▶▶R

BABIP

345

281

◀◀L

21.9%

21.2%

▶R

BB%

7.8%

6.6%

◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.151 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-3	$9M	+1.2	$9M	+$1M
Totals		$9M		$9M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	21	A	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	204	184	54	15	0	6	10	38	5	5	5	293	347	473	820	179	336	19	5	354	126	+6	-1	—	—	+4	1.0
2019	22	A+	Clearwater Threshers	—	483	431	100	23	2	5	34	94	9	22	5	232	302	329	631	97	279	19	7	283	78	-13	+2	—	—	+10	0.0
2021	24	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	77	71	23	3	1	2	4	20	1	2	0	324	368	479	847	155	420	26	5	371	137	+3	+0	+0	-7	+2	-0.2
2021	24	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	236	206	51	6	1	5	24	46	3	5	1	248	335	359	694	112	291	19	10	313	98	-0	+1	—	—	+5	0.5
2021	24	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	102	87	30	6	1	6	12	18	1	5	1	345	430	644	1.074	299	369	18	12	454	193	+11	+1	—	—	+2	1.4
2022	25	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	357	325	80	12	2	6	23	70	3	7	4	246	302	351	653	105	290	20	6	290	83	-7	-0	-1	+2	+8	0.0
2022	25	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	95	85	23	6	2	2	10	15	0	8	2	271	347	459	806	188	309	16	11	356	127	+3	+1	—	—	+2	0.6
2023	26	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	530	479	125	21	5	10	44	112	5	6	6	261	330	388	718	127	321	21	8	322	104	+3	-1	+0	-6	+11	0.7
2024	27	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	567	518	133	28	5	16	41	121	3	6	1	257	315	423	738	166	303	21	7	325	106	+4	+1	-2	+2	+12	1.8
2025	28	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	100	88	21	3	0	1	7	24	3	2	0	239	316	307	623	68	308	24	7	284	78	-3	+0	-0	+1	+2	0.0
2025	28	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	69	60	12	2	0	2	8	23	1	1	0	200	304	333	638	133	286	33	12	294	85	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1631	1481	382	67	13	35	119	347	15	23	11	258	320	392	711	134	311	21	7	316	100	+0	+0	-3	-9	+35	2.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	21	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	204	187	47	12	0	5	7	52	5	5	5	251	296	396	692	144	299	25	3	289	82	-4	-1	—	—	+4	-0.1
2019	22	A+ MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	483	439	76	16	1	4	26	139	9	22	5	173	234	241	476	68	231	29	5	217	33	-38	+2	—	—	+10	-2.6
2021	24	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	77	71	23	3	1	2	4	20	1	2	0	324	368	479	847	155	420	26	5	352	125	+2	+0	+0	-7	+2	-0.3
2021	24	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	236	214	47	5	1	4	16	56	3	5	1	220	283	308	592	89	268	24	7	261	63	-10	+1	—	—	+5	-0.5
2021	24	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	—	102	91	27	5	1	4	8	22	1	5	1	297	360	505	865	209	332	22	8	362	131	+4	+1	—	—	+2	0.7
2022	25	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	357	325	80	12	2	6	23	70	3	7	4	246	302	351	653	105	290	20	6	284	78	-9	-0	-1	+2	+8	-0.2
2022	25	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	95	89	20	5	2	1	6	19	0	8	2	225	274	360	633	135	272	20	6	281	76	-3	+1	—	—	+2	0.0
2023	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	530	479	127	22	5	10	44	112	5	6	6	265	333	395	728	129	321	21	8	322	104	+3	-1	+0	-6	+11	0.7
2024	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	567	518	136	29	5	17	41	121	3	6	1	263	320	436	757	174	303	21	7	326	107	+5	+1	-2	+2	+12	1.8
2025	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	100	88	21	3	0	1	7	24	3	2	0	239	316	307	623	68	308	24	7	285	79	-2	+0	-0	+1	+2	0.0
2025	28	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	69	62	11	2	0	2	6	26	1	1	0	177	261	306	567	129	261	38	9	238	47	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2018	21	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	204	187	47	12	0	5	7	52	5	5	5	251	296	396	692	144	316	25	3	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	204	184	54	15	0	6	10	38	5	5	5	293	347	473	820	179	336	19	5	354	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	483	439	76	16	1	4	26	139	9	22	5	173	234	241	476	68	237	29	5	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Clearwater Threshers	—	483	431	100	23	2	5	34	94	9	22	5	232	302	329	631	97	279	19	7	283	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	415	376	96	14	3	9	28	98	5	12	2	255	315	380	696	125	316	24	7	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	415	364	104	15	3	13	40	84	5	12	2	286	364	451	815	165	333	20	10	359	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	452	414	100	17	4	7	29	89	3	15	6	242	296	353	649	111	287	20	6	283	78	-12	+1	-1	+2	+10	-0.1
2022	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	452	410	103	18	4	8	33	85	3	15	6	251	312	373	685	122	294	19	7	304	78	-12	+1	-1	+2	+10	-0.1
2023	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	530	479	127	22	5	10	44	112	5	6	6	265	333	395	728	129	327	21	8	322	104	+3	-1	+0	-6	+11	0.7
2023	26	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	—	530	479	125	21	5	10	44	112	5	6	6	261	330	388	718	127	321	21	8	322	104	+3	-1	+0	-6	+11	0.7
2024	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	567	518	136	29	5	17	41	121	3	6	1	263	320	436	757	174	309	21	7	326	107	+5	+1	-2	+2	+12	1.8
2024	27	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	—	567	518	133	28	5	16	41	121	3	6	1	257	315	423	738	166	303	21	7	325	107	+5	+1	-2	+2	+12	1.8
2025	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	169	150	33	5	0	3	13	50	4	3	0	220	299	313	613	93	303	30	8	266	66	-7	+1	-0	+1	+4	-0.2
2025	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	169	148	33	5	0	3	15	47	4	3	0	223	311	318	629	95	300	28	9	288	66	-7	+1	-0	+1	+4	-0.2
2018	21	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	204	190	47	12	0	5	7	52	5	5	5	247	296	389	686	142	299	25	3	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	483	445	76	16	1	4	26	139	9	22	5	171	234	238	472	67	231	29	5	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	415	379	96	14	3	9	28	98	5	12	2	253	315	377	693	124	312	24	7	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	452	417	100	17	4	7	29	89	3	15	6	240	296	350	646	110	286	20	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	530	476	127	22	5	10	44	112	5	6	6	267	333	397	730	130	321	21	8	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	567	518	136	29	5	17	41	121	3	6	1	263	320	436	757	174	303	21	7	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	169	150	33	5	0	3	13	50	4	3	0	220	299	313	613	93	289	30	8	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	530	476	127	22	5	10	44	112	5	6	6	267	333	397	730	130	321	21	8	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	567	518	136	29	5	17	41	121	3	6	1	263	320	436	757	174	303	21	7	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	169	150	33	5	0	3	13	50	4	3	0	220	299	313	613	93	289	30	8	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	29	MLB MLE	DET	—	291	266	55	13	3	5	19	49	0	4	2	207	260	335	594	128	230	17	7	263	64	-13	+0	-2	+1	+6	-0.7
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	DET	—	291	266	55	13	3	5	19	49	0	4	2	207	260	335	594	128	230	17	7	261	64	-13	+0	-2	+1	+6	-0.7
YTD	29	MLB RAW	DET	—	291	266	55	13	3	5	19	49	0	4	2	207	260	335	594	128	230	17	7	261	63	-13	+0	-2	+1	+6	-0.7
ROS	29	MLB MLE	DET	100%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—	—	—	—	—	302	—	—	313	98	—	—	-0	+0	—	—
ROS	29	MLB CTX	DET	100%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	29	MLB A+C	DET	—	291	266	55	13	3	5	19	49	0	4	2	207	260	335	594	128	230	17	7	261	64	-13	+0	-2	+1	+6	-0.7
TOT	29	MLB MLE	DET	—	291	266	55	13	3	5	19	49	0	4	2	207	260	335	594	128	230	17	7	263	64	-13	+0	-2	+1	+6	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	DET	100%	556	509	132	24	5	11	39	112	3	16	4	259	316	391	707	132	311	20	7	315	99	-0	+2	-4	+2	+12	1.2
2028	31	MLB MLE	DET	100%	545	498	129	23	5	11	39	111	3	14	3	259	317	392	708	133	308	20	7	311	97	-2	+2	-4	+2	+12	0.9
2029	32	MLB MLE	DET	100%	534	488	123	22	4	10	38	111	3	11	3	252	310	375	685	123	305	21	7	305	93	-5	+1	-5	+2	+12	0.5
2030	33	MLB MLE	DET	100%	314	288	71	12	3	5	22	67	1	5	1	247	302	361	663	115	301	21	7	298	88	-5	+1	-5	+1	+7	-0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	DET	100%	556	509	130	23	5	11	39	112	3	16	4	255	312	385	697	130	306	20	7	306	99	-0	+2	-4	+2	+12	1.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	DET	100%	545	498	127	23	5	10	39	111	3	14	3	255	313	382	694	127	303	20	7	302	97	-2	+2	-4	+2	+12	0.9
2029	32	MLB CTX	DET	100%	534	488	120	21	4	9	38	111	3	11	3	246	304	361	665	115	300	21	7	297	93	-5	+1	-5	+2	+12	0.5
2030	33	MLB CTX	DET	100%	314	288	70	12	3	5	22	67	1	5	1	243	299	358	657	115	296	21	7	290	88	-5	+1	-5	+1	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3580	3264	829	146	30	70	257	748	25	69	22	254	313	381	695	127	307	21	7	307	88	-12	+5	-21	-2	+78	4.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	151	27	5	13	47	136	5	13	4	255	315	383	698	128	307	21	7	307	88	-2	+1	-4	-0	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	4769	4346	1070	196	35	92	326	1062	44	115	36	246	305	371	676	125	302	22	7	298	88	-12	+5	-21	-2	+78	4.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	147	27	5	13	44	145	6	16	5	248	306	377	683	128	305	22	7	298	88	-2	+1	-4	-0	+14	0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Cameron Maybinlast yr '20 ASSS career totals — 13 seasons, 4,182 PA	6.3	4,182	72	182	254	322	375	+9	+6	13.1	12.8
/162	664	11	29	+1.4	+1.0	2.1	pk7: 13
#2Kevin Pillarlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,353 PA	6.6	4,353	114	108	256	294	407	+9	+16	12.6	12.4
/162	664	17	16	+1.4	+2.5	1.9	pk7: 12
#3Marwin Gonzalezlast yr '22 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,882 PA	5.8	3,882	107	44	252	310	399	-10	+17	10.9	10.9
/162	664	18	8	-1.6	+2.8	1.9	pk7: 11
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	6.4	4,217	85	89	253	309	384	+11	-13	10.5	10.3
/162	664	13	14	+1.7	-2.0	1.7	pk7: 10
#4Logan Forsythelast yr '19 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,502 PA	5.3	3,502	70	42	246	327	370	+5	-11	8.6	9.2
/162	664	13	8	+0.9	-2.2	1.6	pk7: 10
#5Mike Avileslast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,234 PA	4.9	3,234	60	78	261	295	376	+13	+4	5.8	7.2
/162	664	12	16	+2.7	+0.8	1.2	pk7: 9
#6Angel Berroalast yr '09 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,794 PA	4.2	2,794	46	50	259	303	375	+27	-6	6.7	7.1
/162	664	11	12	+6.5	-1.4	1.6	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Vierling (OGILVIE)	29	55	50	55	60	252/309/390	138	302	7	11	20%	7%	98	+0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Franklin Gutierrez 2012 · MLB	29	50→56	42→60	54→55	48	244/296/348	104	290	10	19	19%	7%	82	+0.0	229/276/370	141	286	15	13	25%	6%	80	-0.1	243/305/444	201	309	27	5	30%	7%	107	+1.1
✕Adam Everett 2006 · MLB	29	51→53	44→45	52→50	45	249/295/366	117	279	12	18	16%	5%	86	+0.3	235/286/345	110	263	9	12	14%	6%	78	-0.3	228/282/329	100	254	6	8	13%	6%	68	-0.5
✕Leonys Martin 2017 · MLB	29	49→56	45→50	54→60	46	244/299/363	119	301	13	25	24%	7%	87	+0.4	238/294/384	146	302	16	21	26%	7%	91	+0.6	231/289/379	148	293	17	21	26%	6%	85	+0.1
✕Kevin Kiermaier 2019 · MLB	29	47→57	50→55	55	47	238/304/398	161	288	16	19	23%	8%	98	+1.2	232/297/388	156	288	14	19	24%	7%	93	+0.8	250/313/390	140	320	11	17	24%	7%	96	+0.6
✕Shane Robinson 2014 · MLB	29	52→59	43→45	54→55	56	250/323/360	110	279	10	14	14%	9%	96	+1.0	235/297/319	84	274	5	13	15%	8%	76	-0.4	250/299/319	69	290	2	20	13%	6%	74	-0.2
✕Chris Burke 2009 · MLB	29	47→56	44→45	53→55	54	227/309/344	117	256	11	16	16%	9%	88	+0.4	220/285/319	99	262	8	20	18%	7%	72	-0.7	215/274/303	88	260	6	24	19%	6%	63	-0.8
✕Ender Inciarte 2020 · MLB	29	55→63	44→45	52→60	53	265/330/387	122	297	11	20	14%	8%	104	+1.6	229/296/336	107	275	10	14	20%	8%	80	-0.1	209/271/288	78	258	8	14	21%	7%	57	-0.4
✕Peter Bourjos 2015 · MLB	28	48→55	44→50	55→60	44	232/296/351	119	303	10	15	26%	7%	84	+0.1	229/289/363	134	297	11	13	25%	6%	84	+0.1	237/279/373	137	305	9	8	25%	5%	79	-0.1
✕Desmond Jennings 2016 · MLB	29	49→59	45→50	50→60	52	241/315/374	133	285	12	17	19%	9%	96	+1.0	214/278/350	136	261	15	10	24%	8%	77	-0.3	188/251/322	133	227	16	7	25%	7%	59	-0.6
●Julio Lugo 2005 · MLB	29	55→62	44→45	52→60	51	266/329/394	128	309	11	16	17%	8%	105	+1.7	272/335/393	121	307	9	27	14%	8%	107	+1.9	266/330/382	117	296	9	32	13%	8%	101	+1.4
✕Manuel Margot 2022 · MLB	27	51→52	46→50	51→60	52	249/310/378	129	281	13	21	17%	8%	95	+0.9	255/309/368	113	299	9	14	17%	7%	92	+0.7	255/307/357	102	301	7	12	17%	6%	86	+0.2
✕Tommy Edman 2023 · MLB	28	54→57	46→50	58→55	49	263/317/400	137	298	13	25	16%	7%	103	+1.5	247/305/397	150	278	16	22	17%	7%	98	+1.2	236/295/386	150	260	18	20	17%	7%	91	+0.4
✕Jonathan Davis 2021 · MLB	29	46→52	44→45	54→55	45	225/305/348	123	292	11	19	26%	7%	87	+0.4	215/307/323	108	292	10	23	27%	9%	82	+0.0	221/304/328	106	311	9	22	29%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Kevin Pillar 2018 · MLB	29	53→59	46→55	49→55	46	260/302/393	133	288	12	15	15%	5%	95	+1.0	257/294/424	167	284	17	14	16%	4%	100	+1.3	258/293/432	173	284	18	14	16%	3%	98	+0.9
✕Andrelton Simmons 2019 · MLB	29	58→61	45	52→50	52	282/331/409	127	294	11	13	9%	6%	109	+2.0	263/314/365	102	284	9	10	11%	6%	93	+0.8	249/302/322	73	275	6	8	11%	6%	76	-0.2
●Lorenzo Cain 2014 · MLB	28	52→62	44→50	52→55	46	252/309/374	122	310	11	17	22%	7%	93	+0.8	289/339/426	137	349	12	25	20%	6%	116	+2.5	301/360/453	152	347	15	24	17%	7%	126	+3.0
✕Cameron Maybin 2016 · MLB	29	52→60	43→50	53→55	50	253/313/365	112	300	11	19	19%	8%	93	+0.8	256/329/374	118	311	10	25	19%	10%	101	+1.4	245/331/378	132	307	13	27	23%	11%	100	+0.9
✕Ryan Roberts 2010 · MLB	29	52	45→50	53→55	54	251/328/379	128	297	11	14	19%	10%	102	+1.5	234/308/376	142	276	15	16	20%	10%	94	+0.9	229/304/364	135	264	16	13	19%	10%	87	+0.3
●Christian Vázquez 2019 · MLB	28	50→55	41→50	49→45	45	240/288/339	99	281	8	10	18%	5%	78	-0.3	258/309/415	157	295	19	8	19%	7%	103	+1.5	262/314/414	151	300	18	8	19%	7%	102	+1.0
✕Bobby Crosby 2008 · MLB	28	48→50	46→50	51→50	51	237/297/365	128	267	14	12	17%	8%	87	+0.4	231/294/348	117	268	10	8	17%	8%	82	-0.0	227/293/336	109	265	8	5	17%	8%	77	-0.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps