Matt Vierling — OGILVIE

Matt VierlingCF Detroit Tigers

Age 29 R/R 6'1" / 205 lbs MLB HR -8% Svc 4.151 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION262 act + 174 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 102101vR 97

AVG/OBP/SLG.252 / .313 / .384

PA174

HR4

SB6

K%20

BB%7

BABIP298

ISO132

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT55

Whiff%

905.3%

xwOBA

520.311

POWER50

Barrel%

437.3

Avg EV

5589.4

Bat Spd

4570.8

EYE60

Chase%

9018.4%

SPEED55

Sprint

7328.4

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 719 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

219

500

—

wRC+

105

◀L

wOBA

323

309

◀L

ISO

118

167

▶▶R

BABIP

345

281

◀◀L

21.9%

21.2%

▶R

BB%

7.8%

6.6%

◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.151 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$1M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-3	$10M	+1.9	$14M	+$5M
Totals		$11M		$14M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	21	A	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	204	187	48	12	0	5	7	53	5	5	5	257	302	401	703	144	326	26	3	295	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	204	184	54	15	0	6	10	38	5	5	5	293	347	473	820	179	336	19	5	354	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+	Clearwater Threshers	—	483	438	72	13	1	4	27	145	9	22	5	164	228	226	454	62	229	30	6	208	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+	Clearwater Threshers	—	483	431	100	23	2	5	34	94	9	22	5	232	302	329	631	97	279	19	7	283	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA	3 teams	—	415	377	96	14	2	10	27	100	5	12	2	255	313	382	695	127	315	24	7	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA	3 teams	—	415	364	104	15	3	13	40	84	5	12	2	286	364	451	815	165	333	20	10	359	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB	2 teams	—	452	414	98	16	4	7	29	89	3	15	6	237	291	345	637	109	281	20	6	284	75	-13	+1	-1	+2	+13	0.1
2022	25	MLB	2 teams	—	452	410	103	18	4	8	33	85	3	15	6	251	312	373	685	122	294	19	7	304	91	-5	+1	-1	+2	+13	0.9
2023	26	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	530	479	129	22	5	11	44	112	5	6	6	269	337	405	742	136	331	21	8	327	109	+5	-1	+0	-6	+15	1.4
2023	26	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	530	479	125	21	5	10	44	112	5	6	6	261	330	388	718	127	321	21	8	322	105	+3	-1	+0	-6	+15	1.1
2024	27	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	567	518	138	30	5	17	41	121	3	6	1	266	324	442	766	176	314	21	7	332	112	+8	+1	-2	+2	+16	2.6
2024	27	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	567	518	133	28	5	16	41	121	3	6	1	257	315	423	738	166	303	21	7	325	107	+4	+1	-2	+2	+16	2.2
2025	28	MLB	2 teams	—	169	150	33	5	0	3	13	48	4	3	0	220	299	313	613	93	297	28	8	281	73	-5	+1	-0	+1	+5	0.1
2025	28	MLB	2 teams	—	169	148	33	5	0	3	15	47	4	3	0	223	311	318	629	95	300	28	9	288	79	-4	+1	-0	+1	+5	0.2
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	29	MLB	DET	—	262	238	49	12	2	5	19	43	0	3	2	206	265	336	601	130	227	16	7	262	59	-12	-0	-2	+1	+7	-0.6
YTD	29	MLB	DET	—	262	238	49	12	2	5	19	43	0	3	2	206	265	336	601	130	227	16	7	265	61	-12	-0	-2	+1	+7	-0.5
ROS	29	MLB	DET	100%	174	158	40	7	1	4	13	35	1	6	1	252	313	384	697	132	302	20	7	316	100	-0	+1	-1	+1	+5	0.6
ROS	29	MLB	DET	100%	175	159	40	7	1	4	13	35	1	6	1	252	312	384	696	132	298	20	7	307	93	-1	+1	-1	+1	+5	0.4
FULL	29	MLB	DET	—	437	397	89	19	3	9	32	78	1	9	3	224	284	355	639	131	254	18	7	280	72	-14	+1	-2	+2	+12	-0.1
TOT	29	MLB	DET	—	436	396	89	19	3	9	32	78	1	9	3	224	284	355	639	131	254	18	7	284	75	-12	+1	-2	+2	+12	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	DET	100%	556	506	133	24	5	12	42	111	3	16	4	263	323	401	724	138	311	20	8	320	103	+2	+2	-4	+2	+16	1.7
2028	31	MLB	DET	100%	545	496	127	23	4	11	41	111	3	14	4	256	317	385	702	129	308	20	8	315	100	-0	+1	-5	+2	+15	1.4
2029	32	MLB	DET	100%	534	486	124	22	4	11	40	111	3	11	3	255	316	385	700	130	305	21	7	310	95	-3	+1	-6	+2	+15	1.0
2030	33	MLB	DET	100%	460	421	105	18	4	9	34	98	2	8	2	249	309	375	684	126	301	21	7	302	89	-5	+1	-6	+2	+13	0.4
2027	30	MLB	DET	100%	556	506	131	23	5	12	42	111	3	16	4	259	319	395	715	136	306	20	8	310	96	-3	+2	-4	+2	+16	1.3
2028	31	MLB	DET	100%	545	496	125	22	4	11	41	111	3	14	4	252	313	379	692	127	303	20	8	306	93	-5	+1	-5	+2	+15	0.9
2029	32	MLB	DET	100%	534	486	121	21	4	10	40	111	3	11	3	249	310	370	680	121	300	21	7	301	88	-7	+1	-6	+2	+15	0.6
2030	33	MLB	DET	100%	460	421	102	17	4	8	34	98	2	8	2	242	302	359	661	116	296	21	7	294	83	-9	+1	-6	+2	+13	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3901	3549	901	157	31	80	289	813	27	78	25	254	315	383	698	129	306	21	7	309	95	-24	+6	-24	-1	+111	6.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	149	26	5	13	48	135	4	13	4	252	312	379	691	127	304	21	7	309	95	-4	+1	-4	-0	+18	1.1
Career	—			—	5089	4630	1143	206	35	104	358	1134	46	124	39	247	307	374	681	127	302	22	7	301	89	-65	+9	-24	+2	+144	6.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	145	26	4	13	46	145	6	16	5	245	306	369	675	124	301	22	7	301	89	-8	+1	-3	+0	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	21	A	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	204	184	54	15	0	6	10	38	5	5	5	293	347	473	820	179	336	19	5	354	129	+7	-1	—	—	+6	1.2
2019	22	A+	Clearwater Threshers	—	483	431	100	23	2	5	34	94	9	22	5	232	302	329	631	97	279	19	7	283	75	-14	+2	—	—	+14	0.3
2021	24	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	77	71	23	3	1	2	4	20	1	2	0	324	368	479	847	155	420	26	5	371	142	+4	+0	+0	-7	+2	-0.1
2021	24	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	236	206	51	6	1	5	24	46	3	5	1	248	335	359	694	112	291	19	10	313	98	-1	+1	—	—	+7	0.7
2021	24	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	102	87	30	6	1	6	12	18	1	5	1	345	430	644	1.074	299	369	18	12	454	205	+12	+1	—	—	+3	1.6
2022	25	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	357	325	80	12	2	6	23	70	3	7	4	246	302	351	653	105	290	20	6	290	80	-8	-0	-1	+2	+10	0.2
2022	25	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	95	85	23	6	2	2	10	15	0	8	2	271	347	459	806	188	309	16	11	356	131	+3	+1	—	—	+3	0.7
2023	26	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	530	479	125	21	5	10	44	112	5	6	6	261	330	388	718	127	321	21	8	322	105	+3	-1	+0	-6	+15	1.1
2024	27	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	567	518	133	28	5	16	41	121	3	6	1	257	315	423	738	166	303	21	7	325	107	+4	+1	-2	+2	+16	2.2
2025	28	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	100	88	21	3	0	1	7	24	3	2	0	239	316	307	623	68	308	24	7	284	76	-3	+0	-0	+1	+3	0.1
2025	28	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	69	60	12	2	0	2	8	23	1	1	0	200	304	333	638	133	286	33	12	294	83	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1631	1481	382	67	13	35	119	347	15	23	11	258	320	392	711	134	311	21	7	316	100	+0	+0	-3	-9	+46	3.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gary Matthews Jr.last yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,572 PA	11	4,572	108	93	258	331	407	-5	-10	16.2	17.2
	/162	664	16	14	258	331	407	-0.7	-1.4	2.3	pk7: 18
#2Cameron Maybinlast yr '20 ASSS career totals — 13 seasons, 4,182 PA	13	4,182	72	182	254	322	375	+9	+6	13.1	12.8
	/162	664	11	29	254	322	375	+1.4	+1.0	2.1	pk7: 13
#3Kevin Pillarlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,353 PA	11	4,353	114	108	256	294	407	+9	+16	12.6	12.4
	/162	664	17	16	256	294	407	+1.4	+2.5	1.9	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	11	4,419	93	95	254	311	387	+9	-13	11.9	11.6
	/162	664	14	14	254	311	387	+1.4	-1.9	1.8	pk7: 11
#4Marwin Gonzalezlast yr '22 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,882 PA	11	3,882	107	44	252	310	399	-10	+17	10.9	10.9
	/162	664	18	8	252	310	399	-1.6	+2.8	1.9	pk7: 11
#5Logan Forsythelast yr '19 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,502 PA	9	3,502	70	42	246	327	370	+5	-11	8.6	9.2
	/162	664	13	8	246	327	370	+0.9	-2.2	1.6	pk7: 10
#6Damion Easleylast yr '08 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,995 PA	9	2,995	77	33	247	323	396	-2	-15	7.8	8.3
	/162	664	17	7	247	323	396	-0.5	-3.3	1.7	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Vierling (OGILVIE)	29	55	50	55	60	224/284/355	131	254	9	9	18%	7%	75	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Desmond Jennings 2016 · MLB	29	49→59	46→50	50→60	52	240/313/374	135	282	12	17	19%	9%	95	+1.4	211/274/343	132	260	15	10	24%	8%	71	-0.3	184/246/310	126	224	16	7	26%	7%	49	-0.7
✕Kevin Kiermaier 2019 · MLB	29	47→55	50→55	54→55	47	236/303/398	162	285	17	19	23%	8%	97	+1.5	231/295/387	156	286	15	19	24%	7%	91	+1.1	248/311/389	141	317	12	17	24%	7%	94	+0.8
✕Leonys Martin 2017 · MLB	29	50→56	45→50	54→60	46	245/300/366	121	302	14	25	24%	7%	87	+0.8	240/296/388	148	304	16	21	25%	7%	92	+1.2	234/291/384	150	296	17	21	26%	6%	85	+0.5
✕Shane Robinson 2014 · MLB	29	52→59	43→45	54→55	56	251/324/361	110	281	10	14	14%	9%	95	+1.4	234/295/319	85	273	5	13	15%	8%	72	-0.2	251/300/319	68	290	2	20	13%	6%	71	-0.1
✕Chris Burke 2009 · MLB	29	47→56	44→45	53→55	54	227/309/344	117	256	11	16	16%	9%	86	+0.8	220/286/323	103	262	8	20	19%	7%	70	-0.3	216/277/308	92	261	7	24	19%	6%	60	-0.6
●Cameron Maybin 2016 · MLB	29	52→60	43→50	53→55	50	253/312/363	110	300	10	19	19%	8%	91	+1.1	257/330/374	117	312	10	25	19%	10%	101	+1.8	254/334/367	113	310	9	28	19%	10%	98	+1.2
●Franklin Gutierrez 2012 · MLB	29	51→56	42→60	54→55	48	246/298/352	106	293	10	19	19%	7%	82	+0.5	233/279/378	145	290	15	13	25%	6%	82	+0.5	249/310/455	206	315	28	5	29%	7%	113	+1.5
✕Jonathan Davis 2021 · MLB	29	46→52	46→45	54→55	45	227/308/358	131	295	12	19	26%	7%	89	+1.0	216/308/331	115	293	11	23	28%	9%	82	+0.5	224/306/341	117	313	11	22	29%	9%	81	+0.2
✕Jace Peterson 2020 · MLB	30	47→57	47→50	56→55	51	234/304/379	145	280	13	19	21%	9%	92	+1.2	240/323/396	156	299	17	17	24%	11%	105	+2.1	227/319/357	130	289	14	20	25%	11%	89	+0.6
●Harrison Bader 2023 · MLB	29	50→56	49→55	55	46	253/308/405	152	298	17	21	21%	6%	101	+1.8	239/292/372	133	285	15	23	21%	6%	85	+0.7	242/304/399	157	300	20	16	25%	6%	96	+0.9
●Ryan Roberts 2010 · MLB	29	52	45→50	53→55	54	252/328/382	130	297	12	14	19%	10%	102	+1.9	232/304/371	139	275	15	16	21%	9%	90	+1.0	227/302/364	136	262	16	13	19%	9%	85	+0.5
✕Adam Everett 2006 · MLB	29	51→53	44→45	52→50	45	249/295/366	117	279	12	18	16%	5%	85	+0.7	235/286/345	110	263	9	12	14%	6%	76	+0.0	228/282/329	100	254	6	8	13%	6%	64	-0.4
✕Bobby Crosby 2008 · MLB	28	48→50	46→50	51→50	51	237/297/365	128	267	14	12	17%	8%	85	+0.7	231/294/349	118	268	10	8	17%	8%	80	+0.4	227/293/337	109	265	8	5	17%	8%	74	-0.1
✕Manuel Margot 2022 · MLB	27	50→53	46→50	51→60	52	249/310/381	132	280	13	21	17%	8%	95	+1.4	254/308/368	114	297	9	14	17%	7%	90	+1.0	253/306/356	103	299	7	12	17%	6%	84	+0.4
✕Ender Inciarte 2021 · MLB	30	49→59	43→45	52→60	54	237/311/353	115	271	10	18	16%	9%	88	+0.9	228/291/341	113	280	12	12	22%	8%	76	+0.1	224/280/316	92	280	10	12	23%	7%	61	-0.2
✕Tommy Edman 2023 · MLB	28	54→57	45→50	58→55	49	262/316/395	133	298	12	25	16%	7%	101	+1.8	248/306/397	149	279	16	22	17%	7%	98	+1.6	238/297/390	153	262	18	20	17%	7%	90	+0.7
✕Peter Bourjos 2016 · MLB	29	45→55	44→50	49→60	45	222/295/348	126	290	11	14	26%	7%	81	+0.4	235/285/373	138	301	11	10	25%	6%	82	+0.5	240/282/379	139	307	10	8	24%	5%	78	+0.1
●Kevin Pillar 2018 · MLB	29	53→60	46→55	49→55	46	259/301/391	132	287	12	15	15%	5%	94	+1.3	257/294/422	165	284	17	14	16%	4%	99	+1.7	257/291/428	172	282	18	14	16%	3%	97	+1.2
✕Pablo Reyes 2023 · MLB	29	47→53	46→50	48→55	48	233/292/368	135	270	14	15	20%	7%	84	+0.6	239/302/361	122	283	13	19	20%	8%	87	+0.8	243/317/375	132	288	13	24	19%	9%	93	+0.8
✕Jose Aguilar 2019 · AAA	29	50→60	43→45	53→55	44	244/295/357	113	287	11	18	19%	5%	82	+0.5	254/318/378	124	308	10	20	20%	7%	98	+1.6	275/344/397	122	334	8	26	18%	7%	109	+1.4