Hao-Yu Lee — OGILVIE

Hao-Yu Lee2B Detroit Tigers

Age 23 R/R 5'9" / 190 lbs MLB HR -8% Svc 0.000 · Ctrl thru 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION220 act + 360 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†97

AVG/OBP/SLG.245 / .300 / .399

PA360

HR10

SB8

K%22

BB%6

BABIP291

ISO154

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 49 / POW 49

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT49

xwOBA

180.271

POWER49

Barrel%

437.3

Avg EV

2887.4

Bat Spd

2869.0

EYE53

scouting grade only

SPEED48

Sprint

6828.2

DEFENSE44

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+0.3	$1M	+$1.0M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.1	$16M	+$15M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.2	$15M	+$14M
2029	Arb-1	$5M	+2.3	$15M	+$11M
2030	Arb-2	$8M	+2.2	$13M	+$8M
2031	Arb-3	$12M	+2.1	$12M	+$4M
Totals		$27M		$71M	+$53M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	25	23	5	1	1	1	2	7	0	0	0	217	280	478	758	261	267	28	8	343	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	25	22	8	2	2	1	3	5	0	0	0	364	440	773	1.213	409	438	20	12	507	246	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	2 teams	—	342	306	71	12	2	7	28	92	7	13	7	232	311	353	664	121	308	27	8	296	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	2 teams	—	342	293	82	14	2	8	41	66	7	13	7	280	381	423	804	143	336	19	12	363	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	2 teams	—	376	338	77	12	1	7	27	98	8	17	6	228	300	331	632	104	297	26	7	285	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	2 teams	—	376	324	89	15	2	7	41	74	8	17	6	275	370	398	768	123	333	20	11	347	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	386	356	98	16	5	13	19	87	5	16	1	275	321	458	779	183	324	23	5	332	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	386	342	102	19	5	12	33	69	5	16	1	298	368	488	857	190	337	18	9	373	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	579	517	124	22	10	17	45	127	12	22	5	240	315	420	735	180	283	22	8	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	579	497	121	23	8	14	65	121	12	22	5	243	345	406	751	163	292	21	11	336	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	MLB	DET	—	220	207	49	8	1	6	11	57	1	1	3	237	279	372	651	135	299	26	5	288	79	-5	-1	-2	+1	+6	-0.1
YTD	23	MLB	DET	—	220	205	51	8	1	7	13	54	1	1	3	249	297	400	697	151	306	25	6	309	94	-1	-1	-2	+1	+6	0.3
ROS	23	MLB	DET	100%	360	331	81	13	4	10	22	79	4	8	3	245	300	399	699	154	291	22	6	312	97	-1	+0	-1	+1	+10	0.9
ROS	23	MLB	DET	100%	360	331	80	13	4	10	22	79	4	8	3	242	297	396	693	154	286	22	6	298	86	-6	+0	-1	+1	+10	0.5
FULL	23	MLB	DET	—	580	538	129	21	5	16	33	136	5	9	6	240	290	387	677	147	291	23	6	294	83	-11	-1	-3	+2	+16	0.4
TOT	23	MLB	DET	—	580	538	130	21	5	16	33	136	5	9	6	242	292	388	680	147	294	23	6	303	90	-7	-1	-3	+2	+16	0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	DET	98%	613	561	140	23	6	19	40	133	7	13	6	250	308	414	721	164	293	22	7	319	102	+2	+0	-2	+2	+17	1.9
2028	25	MLB	DET	98%	601	548	138	23	6	19	41	130	7	13	6	252	312	420	732	168	293	22	7	322	104	+3	+0	-2	+2	+17	2.0
2029	26	MLB	DET	98%	598	544	137	23	6	19	42	129	7	13	5	252	314	421	735	169	293	22	7	323	105	+4	+1	-2	+2	+17	2.1
2030	27	MLB	DET	98%	593	539	136	23	6	19	42	129	7	13	5	252	315	423	738	171	293	22	7	323	105	+4	+1	-2	+2	+17	2.1
2031	28	MLB	DET	98%	585	531	132	22	5	19	42	128	7	12	5	249	312	416	728	168	292	22	7	322	105	+3	+0	-3	+2	+17	2.0
2032	29	MLB	DET	98%	573	519	128	21	5	18	42	126	7	11	5	247	312	410	722	164	291	22	7	320	103	+2	+0	-4	+2	+16	1.7
2033	30	MLB	DET	98%	561	509	125	21	5	17	41	125	6	10	4	246	309	407	716	161	290	22	7	317	101	+1	+0	-4	+2	+16	1.5
2034	31	MLB	DET	98%	546	495	120	20	5	16	40	124	6	8	3	242	307	400	707	158	288	23	7	313	98	-1	+0	-5	+2	+15	1.2
2035	32	MLB	DET	98%	527	478	114	18	5	15	38	121	6	7	3	238	303	391	694	153	284	23	7	307	93	-4	+0	-6	+2	+15	0.8
2036	33	MLB	DET	98%	497	453	105	16	4	14	36	117	5	5	2	232	296	377	673	146	280	24	7	300	87	-7	+0	-6	+2	+14	0.3
2027	24	MLB	DET	98%	601	549	135	22	6	18	40	130	7	13	6	246	305	406	712	160	288	22	7	305	91	-6	+0	-2	+2	+17	1.2
2028	25	MLB	DET	98%	589	537	133	22	6	18	40	127	7	13	5	248	308	412	720	164	288	22	7	308	94	-4	+1	-2	+2	+17	1.3
2029	26	MLB	DET	98%	586	533	132	22	6	18	41	127	7	13	5	248	310	413	723	165	288	22	7	309	94	-4	+1	-2	+2	+17	1.4
2030	27	MLB	DET	98%	581	527	130	21	6	18	42	126	7	13	5	247	311	412	723	165	288	22	7	309	94	-4	+1	-2	+2	+16	1.4
2031	28	MLB	DET	98%	573	519	126	21	5	17	42	125	7	12	5	243	308	401	709	158	287	22	7	308	94	-4	+0	-3	+2	+16	1.2
2032	29	MLB	DET	98%	562	510	123	20	5	17	41	124	6	11	5	241	305	400	705	159	287	22	7	306	92	-5	+0	-4	+2	+16	1.0
2033	30	MLB	DET	98%	550	499	120	20	5	16	40	123	6	10	4	240	305	397	701	156	285	22	7	303	90	-6	+0	-4	+2	+16	0.8
2034	31	MLB	DET	98%	535	485	116	19	5	15	39	121	6	8	3	239	304	392	696	153	283	23	7	299	87	-8	+0	-5	+2	+15	0.5
2035	32	MLB	DET	98%	516	467	109	17	5	14	38	119	6	6	3	233	299	381	681	148	280	23	7	294	83	-10	+0	-5	+2	+15	0.1
2036	33	MLB	DET	98%	487	444	101	16	4	13	35	115	5	5	2	227	291	369	661	142	276	24	7	287	78	-12	+0	-6	+2	+14	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5940	5401	1305	213	57	174	420	1316	68	112	46	242	304	399	703	157	287	22	7	303	90	-68	+4	-37	+21	+168	9.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	142	23	6	19	46	144	7	12	5	240	302	396	698	156	285	22	7	303	90	-7	+0	-4	+2	+18	1.0
Career	—			—	7762	7048	1731	286	76	230	547	1752	101	181	66	246	309	406	715	160	294	23	7	315	99	-6	+10	-38	+28	+220	21.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	144	24	6	19	46	147	8	15	6	244	307	402	709	158	292	23	7	315	99	-1	+1	-3	+2	+18	1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	25	22	8	2	2	1	3	5	0	0	0	364	440	773	1.213	409	438	20	12	507	246	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2022	19	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	40	35	9	3	1	1	5	9	0	3	0	257	350	486	836	229	320	22	12	366	139	+2	+1	—	—	+1	0.4
2022	19	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	302	258	73	11	1	7	36	57	7	10	7	283	385	415	800	132	338	19	12	362	135	+12	-1	—	—	+9	2.0
2023	20	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	317	275	76	13	2	6	32	62	8	16	5	276	368	404	772	127	335	20	10	348	125	+9	+1	—	—	+9	1.9
2023	20	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	59	49	13	2	0	1	9	12	0	1	1	265	379	367	747	102	324	20	15	339	117	+1	-0	—	—	+2	0.3
2024	21	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	386	342	102	19	5	12	33	69	5	16	1	298	368	488	857	190	337	18	9	373	143	+19	+3	—	—	+11	3.3
2025	22	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	579	497	121	23	8	14	65	121	12	22	5	243	345	406	751	163	292	21	11	336	115	+10	+2	—	—	+16	2.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ian Desmondlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,944 PA	11	5,944	181	181	263	315	427	+30	-4	25.8	24.9
	/162	664	20	20	263	315	427	+3.3	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 24
#2Mike Moustakaslast yr '23 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,577 PA	13	5,577	215	21	247	307	431	+14	+18	22.8	22.1
	/162	664	26	3	247	307	431	+1.6	+2.1	2.7	pk7: 21
#3Kelly Johnsonlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,139 PA	11	5,139	155	87	251	330	422	+8	-3	22.3	21.3
	/162	664	20	11	251	330	422	+1.0	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 20
#4Eduardo Escobarlast yr '23 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,114 PA	12	5,114	164	23	253	305	430	+29	+16	21.1	21.1
	/162	664	21	3	253	305	430	+3.7	+2.0	2.7	pk7: 21
#5Chris Younglast yr '18 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,316 PA	13	5,316	191	142	235	314	428	-0	+3	21.3	20.7
	/162	664	24	18	235	314	428	-0.0	+0.4	2.7	pk7: 20
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	12	6,317	192	123	248	306	410	+23	-20	20.6	18.1
	/162	664	20	13	248	306	410	+2.4	-2.1	2.2	pk7: 16
#6Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	9	3,621	123	62	249	308	437	+22	+7	15.9	16.6
#6Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	/162	664	23	11	249	308	437	+4.1	+1.3	2.9	pk7: 17

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Hao-Yu Lee (OGILVIE)	23	45→49	47→49	45→48	53	242/292/388	147	294	16	9	23%	6%	90	+0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Miguel Vargas 2023 · MLB	23	48→53	51→55	51→50	47	245/302/410	166	280	19	13	21%	7%	100	+1.7	221/308/380	159	262	17	11	22%	10%	95	+1.4	221/322/407	185	244	21	11	19%	12%	106	+1.7
●Connor Norby 2023 · AAA	23	45→49	51→55	50	44	232/297/394	162	296	20	12	28%	7%	93	+1.3	242/301/407	165	320	20	11	29%	7%	98	+1.6	245/305/413	168	324	20	11	29%	7%	99	+1.5
●Elijah Dukes 2007 · AAA	23	52	50→55	51→50	48	259/320/420	161	299	17	15	20%	7%	109	+2.4	242/337/416	174	286	19	13	21%	11%	116	+2.8	236/343/411	176	277	18	13	21%	13%	114	+1.7
✕Brett Lawrie 2013 · MLB	23	53→55	49→55	53→55	47	265/317/423	159	307	14	17	19%	6%	109	+2.4	256/309/407	151	292	17	10	18%	6%	102	+1.8	254/305/406	152	293	18	6	20%	6%	97	+1.1
✕Vinnie Catricala 2012 · AA	23	51→55	51→55	49→45	44	257/312/423	165	308	18	9	23%	6%	108	+2.3	216/264/333	117	272	13	7	25%	5%	63	-0.8	191/237/285	94	243	11	4	25%	5%	37	-2.1
✕Lastings Milledge 2008 · MLB	23	52→59	48→50	48→55	45	255/323/401	145	314	15	16	23%	6%	106	+2.2	263/322/386	123	308	12	18	18%	6%	102	+1.8	268/325/378	110	312	10	19	17%	6%	97	+1.2
✕Dilson Herrera 2017 · MLB	23	50→57	49→50	45→50	44	250/299/397	146	301	17	12	23%	6%	95	+1.4	221/273/368	147	286	18	8	29%	6%	77	+0.1	202/260/358	156	264	21	7	31%	6%	66	-0.4
✕Henry Davis 2023 · AA	23	47→45	48→50	52→50	41	230/312/373	143	305	15	13	28%	6%	95	+1.4	220/304/371	151	284	18	12	28%	8%	92	+1.2	207/291/353	147	263	19	11	28%	8%	78	+0.1
●Ke'Bryan Hayes 2021 · MLB	24	51→55	49→50	53→50	48	254/314/414	160	307	15	11	22%	7%	105	+2.1	255/313/391	136	317	12	15	22%	7%	98	+1.6	257/313/393	137	315	12	16	21%	7%	97	+1.3
●Jeremy Peña 2022 · AAA	24	47→57	51→50	52→55	39	240/297/399	159	312	19	14	29%	5%	95	+1.4	250/296/394	144	302	17	13	23%	5%	93	+1.3	268/323/398	130	314	13	17	18%	6%	102	+1.9
●Adam Jones 2009 · MLB	23	51→55	49→60	51→50	41	253/300/404	151	314	16	12	24%	5%	97	+1.5	269/317/430	161	312	19	10	20%	5%	111	+2.5	273/312/463	190	303	25	11	19%	4%	115	+3.2
✕Ramón Urías 2018 · AAA	24	52→57	46→50	46→50	44	254/327/386	132	305	14	14	21%	5%	105	+2.1	238/302/386	148	296	15	7	24%	6%	94	+1.3	249/317/382	133	319	14	3	25%	7%	96	+1.0
●Sean Rodríguez 2008 · AA	23	45→49	50→60	47→50	43	227/296/385	158	295	18	12	29%	7%	91	+1.1	235/306/425	190	295	23	11	28%	7%	106	+2.2	237/310/439	202	292	25	12	27%	7%	107	+1.7
●Orlando Arcia 2018 · MLB	23	50→56	45→55	51→55	44	248/291/374	126	293	13	17	20%	6%	85	+0.7	243/292/362	119	293	13	11	21%	6%	82	+0.5	245/305/406	162	273	21	3	19%	8%	97	+1.0
✕Jordan Westburg 2023 · AAA	24	46→50	50→60	50	44	231/298/392	161	310	18	11	30%	8%	94	+1.3	245/301/428	183	302	21	9	25%	6%	104	+2.0	251/304/444	193	297	23	7	24%	6%	107	+1.7
●Alec Bohm 2020 · AA	23	47→56	50	46→45	49	239/297/393	153	271	17	6	19%	7%	93	+1.3	258/314/383	125	316	13	6	22%	7%	97	+1.5	270/324/418	148	300	16	4	15%	6%	108	+2.2
✕Lewis Brinson 2017 · AAA	23	46→52	50→55	52→50	39	234/277/394	160	299	18	15	28%	5%	85	+0.7	213/265/357	144	280	16	12	29%	5%	70	-0.3	233/275/409	176	307	23	8	31%	5%	85	+0.3
✕Addison Russell 2017 · MLB	23	47→52	51→55	46→50	48	240/312/403	163	293	19	6	24%	8%	102	+1.9	240/310/387	147	295	16	6	23%	8%	97	+1.5	237/309/375	138	291	15	4	23%	8%	88	+0.6
✕German Duran 2008 · AA	23	48→50	51→50	49→45	42	247/287/411	164	285	19	10	21%	5%	94	+1.3	222/265/339	117	264	12	7	20%	5%	65	-0.7	206/248/286	80	247	7	3	19%	4%	42	-0.9
●Omar Infante 2005 · MLB	23	51→61	47→55	50	49	251/306/398	147	292	14	13	19%	7%	97	+1.5	246/291/386	140	284	12	11	18%	6%	88	+0.9	289/322/418	129	309	11	9	10%	4%	106	+2.1