Connor Norby
1B Colorado Rockies| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AAAMIA | 440 | .293/.385/.496 | 17 | 13 | 103 | — | .251/.323/.409 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLBMIA | 194 | .236/.295/.438 | 9 | 3 | 112 | 0.5 | |
| 2025 | 25 | AAAMIA | 40 | .343/.410/.629 | 3 | 0 | 136 | — | .278/.333/.472 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLBMIA | 337 | .251/.302/.389 | 8 | 8 | 101 | 0.8 | |
| 2026 | 26 | AAACOL | 121 | .291/.397/.544 | 6 | 4 | 103 | — | .241/.322/.417 |
| 2026 | 26 | MLBCOL | 383 | .243/.345/.377 | 7 | 10 | 102 | 0.1 | |
| 2027PROJ | 27 | MLBCOL | 411 | .248/.327/.419 | 13 | 17 | 100 | 0.6 | |
| 2028PROJ92% MLB | 28 | MLBCOL | 369 | .246/.325/.414 | 12 | 13 | 98 | 0.3 | |
| 2029PROJ92% MLB | 29 | MLBCOL | 355 | .243/.322/.406 | 11 | 11 | 96 | 0.1 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 55
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 126 | 99 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 28 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 283 | 423 | 434 | 857 | 152 | 352 | 22 | 17 | 381 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Orioles Orange | — | 24 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 182 | 217 | 273 | 490 | 91 | 250 | 29 | 4 | 211 | -18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 42 | 39 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 359 | 405 | 718 | 1.123 | 359 | 333 | 12 | 7 | 482 | 159 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 296 | 252 | 75 | 14 | 2 | 17 | 34 | 59 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 298 | 394 | 571 | 965 | 274 | 322 | 20 | 11 | 415 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 209 | 186 | 44 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 50 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 237 | 314 | 425 | 739 | 188 | 277 | 24 | 9 | 326 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 633 | 565 | 164 | 40 | 3 | 21 | 57 | 137 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 290 | 361 | 483 | 845 | 193 | 347 | 22 | 9 | 371 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Miami Marlins | — | 194 | 178 | 42 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 15 | 64 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 236 | 295 | 438 | 734 | 202 | 311 | 33 | 8 | 322 | 112 | +3 | -1 | -4 | +2 | +4 | 0.5 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 440 | 379 | 111 | 24 | 1 | 17 | 53 | 123 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 293 | 385 | 496 | 881 | 203 | 387 | 28 | 12 | 387 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Miami Marlins | — | 337 | 311 | 78 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 90 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 251 | 302 | 389 | 691 | 138 | 324 | 27 | 5 | 307 | 101 | +0 | +1 | -2 | +1 | +7 | 0.8 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 40 | 35 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 343 | 410 | 629 | 1.039 | 286 | 360 | 20 | 10 | 439 | 136 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | — | 383 | 329 | 80 | 23 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 108 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 243 | 345 | 377 | 722 | 134 | 336 | 28 | 10 | 327 | 102 | +1 | +1 | -0 | -9 | +8 | 0.1 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 121 | 103 | 30 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 23 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 291 | 397 | 544 | 940 | 252 | 324 | 19 | 14 | 412 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 914 | 818 | 200 | 49 | 1 | 24 | 73 | 262 | 16 | 21 | 8 | 244 | 319 | 395 | 713 | 150 | 327 | 29 | 8 | 319 | 102 | +2 | +1 | -6 | -5 | +20 | 1.2 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 126 | 106 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 37 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 245 | 350 | 349 | 699 | 104 | 334 | 29 | 11 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles Orange | — | 24 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 91 | 130 | 136 | 267 | 45 | 188 | 42 | 4 | 141 | -18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 42 | 40 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 325 | 357 | 600 | 957 | 275 | 321 | 14 | 5 | 403 | 159 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 296 | 261 | 69 | 12 | 2 | 12 | 25 | 73 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 264 | 342 | 464 | 806 | 199 | 305 | 25 | 8 | 343 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 209 | 193 | 37 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 66 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 192 | 246 | 347 | 594 | 155 | 241 | 32 | 5 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 633 | 579 | 143 | 33 | 3 | 15 | 43 | 168 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 247 | 306 | 392 | 698 | 145 | 317 | 27 | 7 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 194 | 178 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 9 | 15 | 64 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 242 | 301 | 449 | 750 | 208 | 311 | 33 | 8 | 334 | 112 | +3 | -1 | -4 | +2 | +4 | 0.5 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 440 | 394 | 99 | 21 | 1 | 13 | 38 | 148 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 251 | 323 | 409 | 732 | 157 | 358 | 34 | 9 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 337 | 311 | 81 | 19 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 90 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 260 | 311 | 405 | 717 | 145 | 324 | 27 | 5 | 318 | 101 | +0 | +1 | -2 | +1 | +7 | 0.8 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 40 | 36 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 278 | 333 | 472 | 806 | 194 | 319 | 25 | 8 | 369 | 136 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB MLE | Colorado Rockies | — | 383 | 329 | 76 | 22 | 0 | 6 | 40 | 108 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 231 | 334 | 353 | 687 | 122 | 336 | 28 | 10 | 318 | 102 | +1 | +1 | -0 | -9 | +8 | 0.1 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 121 | 108 | 26 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 28 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 241 | 322 | 417 | 739 | 176 | 281 | 23 | 10 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 150 | 128 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 47 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 234 | 329 | 336 | 665 | 102 | 337 | 31 | 10 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 150 | 121 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 35 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 264 | 390 | 405 | 795 | 140 | 333 | 23 | 15 | 354 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 547 | 494 | 118 | 19 | 4 | 21 | 38 | 144 | 9 | 16 | 6 | 239 | 305 | 421 | 726 | 182 | 290 | 26 | 7 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 547 | 477 | 133 | 23 | 4 | 29 | 55 | 114 | 9 | 16 | 6 | 279 | 364 | 526 | 890 | 247 | 306 | 21 | 10 | 386 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 633 | 579 | 143 | 33 | 3 | 15 | 43 | 168 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 247 | 306 | 392 | 698 | 145 | 319 | 27 | 7 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA RAW | Norfolk Tides | — | 633 | 565 | 164 | 40 | 3 | 21 | 57 | 137 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 290 | 361 | 483 | 845 | 193 | 347 | 22 | 9 | 371 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 634 | 572 | 144 | 31 | 1 | 23 | 53 | 212 | 4 | 16 | 6 | 252 | 320 | 430 | 750 | 178 | 354 | 33 | 8 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 634 | 557 | 153 | 33 | 1 | 26 | 68 | 187 | 4 | 16 | 6 | 275 | 358 | 478 | 835 | 203 | 364 | 29 | 11 | 367 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 377 | 347 | 91 | 19 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 100 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 262 | 314 | 418 | 732 | 156 | 333 | 27 | 6 | 323 | 105 | +2 | +1 | -2 | +1 | +8 | 1.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 377 | 346 | 90 | 18 | 1 | 11 | 22 | 98 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 260 | 314 | 413 | 727 | 153 | 328 | 26 | 6 | 321 | 105 | +2 | +1 | -2 | +1 | +8 | 1.1 |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 504 | 437 | 103 | 29 | 0 | 11 | 52 | 136 | 12 | 14 | 3 | 236 | 333 | 378 | 711 | 142 | 314 | 27 | 10 | 319 | 102 | +1 | +2 | -0 | -9 | +11 | 0.5 |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 504 | 432 | 110 | 31 | 0 | 13 | 57 | 131 | 12 | 14 | 3 | 255 | 357 | 417 | 774 | 162 | 333 | 26 | 11 | 348 | 102 | +1 | +2 | -0 | -9 | +11 | 0.5 |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 150 | 131 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 47 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 229 | 329 | 328 | 657 | 99 | 311 | 31 | 10 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 547 | 495 | 118 | 19 | 4 | 21 | 38 | 144 | 9 | 16 | 6 | 238 | 305 | 420 | 725 | 182 | 282 | 26 | 7 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 633 | 579 | 143 | 33 | 3 | 15 | 43 | 168 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 247 | 306 | 392 | 698 | 145 | 317 | 27 | 7 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 634 | 572 | 144 | 31 | 1 | 23 | 53 | 212 | 4 | 16 | 6 | 252 | 320 | 430 | 750 | 178 | 344 | 33 | 8 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 377 | 348 | 91 | 19 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 100 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 261 | 314 | 417 | 730 | 155 | 324 | 27 | 6 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 504 | 435 | 103 | 29 | 0 | 11 | 52 | 136 | 12 | 14 | 3 | 237 | 333 | 379 | 713 | 143 | 323 | 27 | 10 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 634 | 572 | 144 | 31 | 1 | 23 | 53 | 212 | 4 | 16 | 6 | 252 | 320 | 430 | 750 | 178 | 344 | 33 | 8 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 377 | 348 | 91 | 19 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 100 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 261 | 314 | 417 | 730 | 155 | 324 | 27 | 6 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 504 | 435 | 103 | 29 | 0 | 11 | 52 | 136 | 12 | 14 | 3 | 237 | 333 | 379 | 713 | 143 | 323 | 27 | 10 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | COL | 100% | 492 | 437 | 103 | 24 | 1 | 14 | 43 | 131 | 9 | 20 | 4 | 236 | 317 | 392 | 708 | 155 | 301 | 27 | 9 | 317 | 100 | +0 | +2 | +2 | -9 | +11 | 1.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | COL | 100% | 411 | 365 | 90 | 21 | 1 | 13 | 36 | 109 | 7 | 17 | 4 | 248 | 327 | 419 | 747 | 172 | 314 | 27 | 9 | 332 | 100 | +0 | +2 | +2 | -7 | +9 | 0.6 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | COL | 92% | 401 | 356 | 83 | 19 | 1 | 11 | 35 | 108 | 7 | 15 | 3 | 234 | 314 | 387 | 701 | 152 | 300 | 27 | 9 | 314 | 98 | -1 | +2 | +1 | -7 | +9 | 0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB MLE | COL | 92% | 386 | 344 | 79 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 33 | 105 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 231 | 311 | 380 | 691 | 148 | 298 | 27 | 9 | 310 | 96 | -2 | +1 | +0 | -7 | +8 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB MLE | COL | 92% | 371 | 330 | 75 | 17 | 0 | 10 | 32 | 102 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 228 | 307 | 371 | 679 | 143 | 295 | 27 | 9 | 305 | 92 | -3 | +1 | -0 | -7 | +8 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB MLE | COL | 92% | 353 | 314 | 70 | 16 | 0 | 9 | 30 | 98 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 223 | 302 | 360 | 662 | 137 | 291 | 28 | 8 | 298 | 88 | -5 | +0 | -1 | -6 | +8 | -0.5 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB MLE | COL | 92% | 329 | 293 | 63 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 216 | 295 | 345 | 639 | 129 | 285 | 28 | 9 | 289 | 82 | -7 | +0 | -2 | -6 | +7 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | COL | 92% | 369 | 328 | 81 | 18 | 1 | 12 | 32 | 99 | 6 | 13 | 3 | 246 | 325 | 414 | 739 | 168 | 313 | 27 | 9 | 328 | 98 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -7 | +8 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB CTX | COL | 92% | 355 | 315 | 76 | 17 | 1 | 11 | 31 | 96 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 243 | 322 | 406 | 728 | 163 | 311 | 27 | 9 | 324 | 96 | -2 | +1 | +0 | -6 | +8 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB CTX | COL | 92% | 341 | 303 | 73 | 17 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 93 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 239 | 317 | 396 | 713 | 157 | 308 | 27 | 9 | 318 | 92 | -3 | +1 | -0 | -6 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB CTX | COL | 92% | 325 | 289 | 67 | 15 | 0 | 9 | 28 | 90 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 233 | 311 | 384 | 695 | 150 | 303 | 28 | 9 | 311 | 88 | -5 | +0 | -1 | -6 | +7 | -0.4 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB CTX | COL | 92% | 303 | 270 | 61 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 25 | 86 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 226 | 303 | 367 | 670 | 141 | 296 | 28 | 8 | 301 | 82 | -7 | +0 | -2 | -5 | +7 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2607 | 2323 | 558 | 130 | 4 | 74 | 218 | 726 | 44 | 62 | 18 | 240 | 317 | 395 | 712 | 155 | 314 | 28 | 8 | 318 | 97 | -15 | +5 | -8 | -36 | +56 | 0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 579 | 138 | 32 | 1 | 18 | 54 | 181 | 11 | 15 | 4 | 238 | 315 | 390 | 705 | 152 | 312 | 28 | 8 | 318 | 97 | -4 | +1 | -2 | -9 | +14 | 0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5096 | 4559 | 1086 | 240 | 13 | 143 | 416 | 1422 | 76 | 132 | 39 | 238 | 312 | 391 | 703 | 152 | 311 | 28 | 8 | 311 | 97 | -16 | +7 | -6 | -46 | +69 | 0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 582 | 139 | 31 | 2 | 18 | 53 | 181 | 10 | 17 | 5 | 239 | 314 | 392 | 705 | 153 | 312 | 28 | 8 | 311 | 97 | -3 | +2 | -1 | -9 | +14 | 0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 121 PAwOBA .401 → .321 (−80)K% 19.0% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.01% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 9.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.83% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.973 | ×1.018 | 18.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.973 | ×1.018 | 8.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.973 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 5.34% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .401 → .321; ISO .252 → .190; BABIP .324 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 40 PAwOBA .437 → .369 (−68)K% 20.0% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.978 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.027 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 6.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.63% | ÷1.051 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 27.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.023 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 3.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.903 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 8.90% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 110, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .437 → .369; ISO .286 → .233; BABIP .360 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 440 PAwOBA .380 → .321 (−59)K% 28.0% → 33.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.95% | ÷0.999 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.05% | ÷1.005 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 8.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.91% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.95% | ÷1.016 | ×0.930 | ×0.995 | ×1.048 | 25.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.38% | ÷0.970 | ×0.830 | ×0.995 | ×1.048 | 8.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.39% | ÷0.985 | ×0.970 | ×0.995 | ×1.048 | 0.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.64% | ÷0.925 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 5.26% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 94, 3B 97, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .380 → .321; ISO .203 → .165; BABIP .387 → .358. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAANorfolk Tides · 633 PAwOBA .363 → .306 (−57)K% 21.6% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.64% | ÷0.980 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.85% | ÷0.948 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 6.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.95% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.36% | ÷1.019 | ×0.930 | ×0.990 | ×1.050 | 22.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.35% | ÷1.015 | ×0.830 | ×0.990 | ×1.050 | 7.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.990 | ×1.050 | 0.79% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.91% | ÷0.995 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 3.62% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 96, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .363 → .306; ISO .193 → .150; BABIP .347 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AABowie Baysox · 296 PAwOBA .409 → .343 (−65)K% 19.9% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.93% | ÷0.992 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.49% | ÷0.998 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 8.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.03% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 1.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.76% | ÷0.995 | ×0.970 | ×0.995 | ×1.042 | 21.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.25% | ÷1.055 | ×0.860 | ×0.995 | ×1.042 | 6.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.04% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | ×1.042 | 1.13% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.81% | ÷1.170 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 6.12% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 99, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 98, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .409 → .343; ISO .274 → .205; BABIP .322 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 209 PAwOBA .320 → .253 (−67)K% 23.9% → 31.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.92% | ÷0.991 | ×1.310 | — | — | 31.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.61% | ÷0.966 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 5.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.44% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 1.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.85% | ÷0.980 | ×0.870 | ×0.994 | ×1.012 | 17.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.15% | ÷0.955 | ×0.780 | ×0.994 | ×1.012 | 4.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.47% | ÷0.964 | ×0.850 | ×0.994 | ×1.012 | 1.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.029 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 5.09% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 96, 2B 91, 3B 93, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .320 → .253; ISO .188 → .154; BABIP .277 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAANorfolk Tides · 42 PAwOBA .467 → .403 (−65)K% 11.9% → 14.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.90% | ÷1.017 | ×1.200 | — | — | 14.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.14% | ÷1.048 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 4.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.53% | ÷0.952 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 24.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 5.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.130 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.76% | ÷0.970 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 8.91% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 126, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .467 → .403; ISO .359 → .278; BABIP .333 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 126 PAwOBA .381 → .322 (−59)K% 22.2% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷1.027 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.036 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 11.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.38% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.17% | ÷0.967 | ×0.920 | ×1.021 | ×1.015 | 27.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.63% | ÷1.055 | ×0.830 | ×1.021 | ×1.015 | 4.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.41% | ÷1.035 | ×0.910 | ×1.021 | ×1.015 | 1.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.23% | ÷1.035 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 3.32% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 93, 2B 111, 3B 107, K 105, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .381 → .322; ISO .152 → .125; BABIP .352 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).