Connor Norby — OGILVIE

Connor Norby3B Miami Marlins

Age 26 R/R 5'10" / 180 lbs MLB HR -6%H -3% Svc 1.331 · Ctrl thru 2030 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION277 act + 184 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 7079vR 102

AVG/OBP/SLG.234 / .318 / .381

PA184

HR5

SB7

K%29

BB%9

BABIP312

ISO148

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

4711.3%

xwOBA

440.302

POWER55

Barrel%

6410.2

Avg EV

2787.4

Bat Spd

3870.1

EYE40

Chase%

8225.5%

SPEED60

Sprint

6628.1

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 625 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

193

432

—

wRC+

111

▶▶R

wOBA

276

330

▶▶R

ISO

121

179

▶▶R

BABIP

257

340

▶▶R

29.5%

28.2%

▶R

BB%

9.8%

5.3%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.331 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$10M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+1.2	$8M	+$6M
2029	Arb-2	$4M	+1.0	$6M	+$4M
2030	Arb-3	$4M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$27M	+$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	A	2 teams	—	150	129	29	4	1	2	14	46	3	6	3	225	315	318	633	93	318	31	9	293	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A	2 teams	—	150	121	32	6	1	3	22	35	3	6	3	264	390	405	795	140	333	23	15	354	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA	3 teams	—	547	494	114	18	4	21	38	151	9	16	6	231	298	411	709	180	284	28	7	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA	3 teams	—	547	477	133	23	4	29	55	114	9	16	6	279	364	526	890	247	306	21	10	386	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	633	579	137	31	3	17	43	172	6	10	4	237	296	389	685	152	304	27	7	298	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	633	565	164	40	3	21	57	137	6	10	4	290	361	483	845	193	347	22	9	371	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	2 teams	—	634	574	143	30	1	26	51	212	4	16	6	249	315	441	756	192	343	33	8	327	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	2 teams	—	634	557	153	33	1	26	68	187	4	16	6	275	358	478	835	203	364	29	11	367	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB	2 teams	—	377	347	92	19	1	12	21	100	5	8	2	265	316	429	746	164	335	27	6	322	104	+2	+1	-2	+1	+11	1.3
2025	25	MLB	2 teams	—	377	346	90	18	1	11	22	98	5	8	2	260	314	413	727	153	328	26	6	321	104	+2	+1	-2	+1	+11	1.3
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	26	MLB	MIA	—	277	239	51	14	0	5	29	81	8	8	3	213	319	335	654	121	299	29	10	293	82	-6	+0	-0	-5	+8	-0.2
YTD	26	MLB	MIA	—	277	237	51	14	0	5	31	79	8	8	3	215	326	338	664	122	299	29	11	306	93	-2	+0	-0	-5	+8	0.1
ROS	26	MLB	MIA	100%	184	162	38	9	0	5	16	53	4	7	2	234	318	381	699	148	301	29	9	310	95	-1	+1	-2	+1	+5	0.4
ROS	26	MLB	MIA	100%	185	163	36	8	0	5	16	53	4	7	2	221	306	362	668	141	296	29	9	291	81	-4	+1	-2	+1	+5	0.1
FULL	26	MLB	MIA	—	462	402	87	22	0	10	45	134	12	15	5	216	314	346	659	129	296	29	10	292	82	-9	+1	-2	-4	+13	-0.1
TOT	26	MLB	MIA	—	461	401	89	23	0	10	45	134	12	15	5	222	318	354	672	132	304	29	10	300	88	-6	+1	-2	-4	+13	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	MIA	92%	656	581	132	30	1	18	57	187	13	24	6	227	310	375	686	148	299	29	9	308	94	-4	+2	-6	+2	+19	1.3
2028	28	MLB	MIA	92%	643	570	129	29	1	18	56	184	12	23	6	226	309	375	684	149	298	29	9	307	93	-5	+2	-7	+2	+18	1.1
2029	29	MLB	MIA	92%	630	558	125	28	1	17	55	182	12	21	5	224	307	369	676	145	297	29	9	305	92	-6	+2	-7	+2	+18	0.9
2030	30	MLB	MIA	92%	617	546	121	27	1	16	54	180	12	18	5	222	306	363	668	141	295	29	9	302	89	-8	+2	-8	+2	+17	0.6
2031	31	MLB	MIA	92%	437	388	84	19	0	11	38	129	8	11	3	216	300	351	650	134	292	30	9	297	86	-7	+1	-7	+2	+12	0.1
2027	27	MLB	MIA	92%	604	535	119	27	1	16	52	172	12	23	6	222	306	366	672	144	293	28	9	289	80	-14	+2	-6	+2	+17	0.2
2028	28	MLB	MIA	92%	592	524	117	26	1	16	52	170	11	21	5	223	307	368	675	145	292	29	9	288	79	-14	+2	-6	+2	+17	0.1
2029	29	MLB	MIA	92%	580	513	113	25	1	15	51	167	11	19	5	220	304	361	665	140	291	29	9	287	77	-15	+2	-7	+2	+16	-0.1
2030	30	MLB	MIA	92%	568	502	110	24	1	15	50	165	11	17	4	219	304	361	664	141	290	29	9	284	75	-16	+2	-7	+2	+16	-0.3
2031	31	MLB	MIA	92%	402	357	76	17	0	10	35	118	7	10	3	213	296	345	640	132	287	29	9	279	72	-13	+1	-6	+1	+11	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3462	3083	691	153	5	94	289	999	61	108	30	224	303	368	672	144	297	29	8	290	80	-77	+10	-40	+14	+98	0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	130	29	1	18	54	188	11	20	6	225	303	371	674	147	297	29	8	290	80	-14	+2	-8	+3	+18	0.1
Career	—			—	5508	4928	1144	244	14	163	443	1596	88	160	48	232	307	387	693	154	306	29	8	307	93	-41	+13	-43	+20	+156	10.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	135	29	2	19	52	188	10	19	6	232	306	387	692	155	305	29	8	307	93	-5	+1	-5	+2	+18	1.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	126	99	28	4	1	3	21	28	3	5	3	283	423	434	857	152	352	22	17	381	149	+7	-0	—	—	+4	1.1
2021	21	ROK	FCL Orioles Orange	—	24	22	4	2	0	0	1	7	0	1	0	182	217	273	490	91	250	29	4	211	20	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2022	22	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	42	39	14	2	0	4	3	5	0	0	1	359	405	718	1.123	359	333	12	7	482	227	+6	-0	—	—	+1	0.7
2022	22	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	296	252	75	14	2	17	34	59	6	10	2	298	394	571	965	274	322	20	11	415	175	+25	+1	—	—	+8	3.6
2022	22	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	209	186	44	7	2	8	18	50	3	6	3	237	314	425	739	188	277	24	9	326	107	+2	+0	—	—	+6	0.8
2023	23	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	633	565	164	40	3	21	57	137	6	10	4	290	361	483	845	193	347	22	9	371	142	+30	+0	—	—	+18	4.9
2024	24	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	194	178	42	9	0	9	15	64	0	3	3	236	295	438	734	202	311	33	8	322	105	+1	-1	-4	+2	+5	0.5
2024	24	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	440	379	111	24	1	17	53	123	4	13	3	293	385	496	881	203	387	28	12	387	154	+27	+1	—	—	+12	4.2
2025	25	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	337	311	78	17	1	8	18	90	5	8	2	251	302	389	691	138	324	27	5	307	93	-3	+1	-2	+1	+10	0.7
2025	25	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	40	35	12	1	0	3	4	8	0	0	0	343	410	629	1.039	286	360	20	10	439	194	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	531	489	120	26	1	17	33	154	5	11	5	245	300	407	707	162	320	29	6	312	97	-2	+0	-6	+4	+15	1.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Aaron Hickslast yr '24 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,651 PA	12	3,651	109	71	231	330	383	+7	-9	11.8	12.4
	/162	664	20	13	231	330	383	+1.3	-1.6	2.1	pk7: 13
#2Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	8	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
	/162	664	19	34	244	314	394	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#3Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	10	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
	/162	664	21	2	226	311	395	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
#4Brad Millerlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,531 PA	11	3,531	123	43	236	314	416	+7	-38	8.8	9.4
	/162	664	23	8	236	314	416	+1.4	-7.2	1.7	pk7: 10
#5Logan Forsythelast yr '19 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,502 PA	9	3,502	70	42	246	327	370	+5	-11	8.6	9.2
	/162	664	13	8	246	327	370	+0.9	-2.2	1.6	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	3,835	107	121	228	304	377	+14	-16	9.3	8.9
	/162	664	18	21	228	304	377	+2.4	-2.8	1.6	pk7: 8
#6Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Connor Norby (OGILVIE)	26	45	55	60	40	222/318/354	132	304	10	15	29%	10%	88	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Keon Broxton 2016 · AAA	26	47→48	49→55	58→60	40	227/283/383	156	332	16	25	35%	7%	84	+0.6	218/290/386	168	342	19	35	39%	9%	89	+0.9	199/280/366	166	324	20	40	42%	9%	77	+0.1
✕Max Schuemann 2023 · AAA	26	46→47	46→45	59→60	46	223/313/356	133	303	14	29	29%	9%	92	+1.2	222/312/331	109	296	11	21	26%	10%	85	+0.7	215/311/310	95	283	9	20	25%	10%	77	+0.1
✕Scott Kingery 2020 · MLB	26	47→51	51→55	53→55	42	239/289/406	166	304	17	16	27%	6%	93	+1.3	208/273/349	141	295	14	15	32%	8%	72	-0.2	198/239/341	143	265	19	17	33%	5%	52	-0.8
●Tyler Greene 2010 · MLB	26	45→53	48→50	58→55	39	226/277/363	137	302	16	24	30%	5%	77	+0.1	238/304/383	145	322	15	23	29%	7%	93	+1.3	238/308/389	151	322	15	24	29%	7%	91	+0.8
✕Drew Stubbs 2011 · MLB	26	49→51	48→50	59→60	47	242/311/383	141	320	15	32	28%	9%	96	+1.5	231/302/359	128	317	14	30	30%	9%	86	+0.8	227/297/360	133	323	13	24	32%	9%	81	+0.3
✕Jake Slaughter 2023 · AA	26	46→47	48→50	54→55	40	226/297/364	138	321	16	24	33%	6%	86	+0.8	220/288/369	149	305	18	20	32%	7%	84	+0.6	209/278/355	146	288	18	20	33%	7%	73	-0.1
✕Nick Senzel 2021 · MLB	26	47→56	49→50	51→50	46	235/293/390	155	291	16	17	25%	7%	91	+1.1	231/294/343	112	273	11	12	19%	8%	79	+0.3	215/285/349	134	257	17	9	23%	8%	75	+0.0
✕Blake Perkins 2023 · AAA	26	40→50	49→50	56→55	47	208/287/358	150	280	17	19	31%	9%	80	+0.4	234/312/365	131	316	13	21	28%	10%	92	+1.2	239/321/358	119	322	11	25	27%	10%	91	+0.6
✕Justin Maxwell 2010 · MLB	26	44	51→60	59→60	44	221/293/377	156	305	19	31	33%	8%	88	+0.9	219/300/386	167	319	20	25	35%	10%	93	+1.3	223/297/433	210	304	27	17	34%	9%	101	+0.9
✕Chip Ambres 2006 · MLB	26	49	48→50	53→50	51	242/318/393	151	292	15	20	22%	9%	102	+1.8	217/289/357	140	271	16	11	25%	9%	81	+0.4	214/283/358	144	260	17	6	24%	8%	76	+0.0
✕Alex Castellanos 2013 · MLB	26	45→49	51→55	52→50	41	229/293/398	169	302	18	15	30%	6%	93	+1.3	203/267/344	141	286	16	15	33%	6%	69	-0.4	198/258/327	129	294	12	8	35%	6%	57	-0.6
●Harrison Bader 2020 · MLB	26	46→56	52→55	52→55	46	232/314/397	165	303	20	17	29%	8%	102	+1.9	245/319/418	173	304	20	17	25%	8%	109	+2.4	242/304/399	157	300	20	16	25%	6%	96	+0.9
✕Samad Taylor 2023 · AAA	25	46→55	51→50	58→65	42	234/296/390	156	317	20	33	32%	7%	92	+1.2	235/305/350	115	323	11	40	28%	8%	85	+0.7	233/305/335	103	318	8	43	27%	8%	78	+0.2
✕Danny Espinosa 2013 · MLB	26	48→51	51→55	51→50	44	241/310/405	164	309	18	17	27%	7%	102	+1.9	216/278/345	129	301	13	12	31%	6%	73	-0.1	218/299/374	156	285	20	10	29%	8%	80	+0.3
✕Michael A. Taylor 2018 · MLB	27	47→53	52→55	54→60	40	238/288/402	164	323	20	24	32%	6%	92	+1.2	226/281/380	154	318	16	24	32%	7%	82	+0.5	242/299/384	143	312	19	14	28%	7%	90	+0.8
✕Óscar Mercado 2021 · MLB	26	48→54	46→55	55→60	46	240/294/374	133	285	14	24	21%	6%	86	+0.8	227/291/374	147	267	15	21	21%	7%	86	+0.8	226/292/376	150	266	15	26	21%	7%	84	+0.4
✕Stuart Fairchild 2022 · MLB	26	44→42	51→50	51→55	46	225/296/386	161	279	18	12	26%	8%	91	+1.1	222/301/376	154	297	17	17	30%	7%	92	+1.2	220/316/365	145	284	15	26	26%	9%	92	+0.7
✕Gerald Laird 2006 · MLB	26	47	49→50	53→50	45	238/294/389	151	283	17	12	23%	6%	91	+1.1	248/299/393	145	299	14	9	21%	6%	94	+1.3	251/304/383	132	302	12	6	20%	6%	90	+0.6
✕Kevin Thompson 2006 · AAA	26	51→52	47→50	57→60	49	248/320/397	149	309	13	29	23%	8%	104	+2.0	239/304/371	132	293	11	27	21%	8%	90	+1.0	237/302/360	123	287	10	31	20%	8%	82	+0.3
✕Jayson Nix 2010 · MLB	27	45→49	51→55	51→55	47	234/299/396	163	275	19	19	23%	8%	95	+1.4	217/282/373	156	265	19	11	25%	7%	82	+0.5	205/268/351	146	255	17	9	26%	6%	67	-0.3