Tyler Fitzgerald
2B Oklahoma City Comets| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AAASF | 87 | .310/.417/.718 | 8 | 1 | 147 | — | .257/.345/.554 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLBSF | 341 | .280/.335/.497 | 15 | 17 | 139 | 3.0 | |
| 2025 | 27 | AAASF | 237 | .246/.323/.379 | 6 | 2 | 55 | — | .199/.264/.292 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLBSF | 243 | .217/.280/.327 | 4 | 9 | 70 | -0.1 | |
| 2026 | 28 | AAALAD | 134 | .237/.341/.465 | 6 | 4 | 67 | — | .185/.265/.336 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 29 | MLBLAD | 22 | .218/.286/.374 | 1 | 1 | 87 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ33% MLB | 30 | MLBLAD | 77 | .215/.282/.366 | 2 | 4 | 83 | 0.0 |
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 45
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 21 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 83 | 72 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 264 | 338 | 306 | 643 | 42 | 339 | 20 | 10 | 288 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | — | 432 | 382 | 100 | 28 | 2 | 19 | 38 | 139 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 262 | 343 | 495 | 837 | 233 | 360 | 32 | 9 | 366 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 519 | 455 | 104 | 20 | 3 | 21 | 37 | 171 | 19 | 20 | 1 | 229 | 313 | 424 | 737 | 196 | 310 | 33 | 7 | 324 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | — | 34 | 32 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 219 | 265 | 469 | 733 | 250 | 250 | 29 | 6 | 319 | 109 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +1 | 0.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 466 | 415 | 119 | 20 | 4 | 20 | 45 | 111 | 2 | 29 | 3 | 287 | 359 | 499 | 858 | 212 | 346 | 24 | 10 | 374 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 78 | 68 | 22 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 324 | 410 | 588 | 998 | 265 | 455 | 28 | 12 | 432 | 129 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | — | 341 | 314 | 88 | 19 | 2 | 15 | 22 | 108 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 280 | 335 | 497 | 832 | 217 | 380 | 32 | 6 | 364 | 139 | +16 | +2 | +0 | +5 | +7 | 3.0 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 87 | 71 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 310 | 417 | 718 | 1.135 | 408 | 333 | 28 | 10 | 465 | 147 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | — | 243 | 217 | 47 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 70 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 217 | 280 | 327 | 607 | 111 | 299 | 29 | 7 | 268 | 70 | -9 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 237 | 211 | 52 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 62 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 246 | 323 | 379 | 703 | 133 | 317 | 26 | 7 | 316 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | — | 134 | 114 | 27 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 41 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 237 | 341 | 465 | 806 | 228 | 304 | 31 | 11 | 352 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 618 | 563 | 142 | 31 | 3 | 21 | 41 | 188 | 6 | 28 | 8 | 252 | 310 | 430 | 740 | 178 | 340 | 30 | 7 | 324 | 105 | +4 | +2 | +1 | +8 | +13 | 2.9 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 83 | 75 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 227 | 275 | 253 | 528 | 27 | 314 | 28 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Eugene Emeralds | — | 432 | 391 | 72 | 18 | 1 | 14 | 29 | 173 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 184 | 256 | 343 | 599 | 159 | 277 | 40 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 519 | 467 | 86 | 15 | 3 | 16 | 25 | 212 | 19 | 20 | 1 | 184 | 254 | 332 | 586 | 148 | 275 | 41 | 5 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB MLE | San Francisco Giants | — | 34 | 32 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 219 | 265 | 469 | 733 | 250 | 250 | 29 | 6 | 330 | 109 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +1 | 0.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 466 | 428 | 105 | 17 | 4 | 14 | 32 | 123 | 2 | 29 | 3 | 245 | 301 | 402 | 703 | 157 | 304 | 26 | 7 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 78 | 71 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 282 | 346 | 521 | 867 | 239 | 429 | 35 | 8 | 359 | 129 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB MLE | San Francisco Giants | — | 341 | 314 | 90 | 19 | 2 | 16 | 22 | 108 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 287 | 341 | 513 | 854 | 226 | 380 | 32 | 6 | 374 | 139 | +16 | +2 | +0 | +5 | +7 | 3.0 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 87 | 74 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 257 | 345 | 554 | 899 | 297 | 284 | 31 | 7 | 385 | 147 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB MLE | San Francisco Giants | — | 243 | 217 | 47 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 70 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 217 | 280 | 327 | 607 | 111 | 299 | 29 | 7 | 272 | 70 | -9 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 237 | 216 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 74 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 199 | 264 | 292 | 555 | 93 | 273 | 31 | 5 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Comets | — | 134 | 119 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 185 | 265 | 336 | 601 | 151 | 257 | 37 | 7 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 83 | 75 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 227 | 275 | 253 | 528 | 27 | 321 | 28 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A RAW | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 83 | 72 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 264 | 338 | 306 | 643 | 42 | 339 | 20 | 10 | 288 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Eugene Emeralds | — | 432 | 391 | 72 | 18 | 1 | 14 | 29 | 173 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 184 | 256 | 343 | 599 | 159 | 283 | 40 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ RAW | Eugene Emeralds | — | 432 | 382 | 100 | 28 | 2 | 19 | 38 | 139 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 262 | 343 | 495 | 837 | 233 | 360 | 32 | 9 | 366 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 519 | 467 | 86 | 15 | 3 | 16 | 25 | 212 | 19 | 20 | 1 | 184 | 254 | 332 | 586 | 148 | 287 | 41 | 5 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA RAW | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 519 | 455 | 104 | 20 | 3 | 21 | 37 | 171 | 19 | 20 | 1 | 229 | 313 | 424 | 737 | 196 | 310 | 33 | 7 | 324 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 578 | 531 | 131 | 23 | 7 | 18 | 40 | 160 | 3 | 34 | 3 | 247 | 303 | 418 | 721 | 171 | 318 | 28 | 7 | 311 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 578 | 515 | 148 | 28 | 7 | 24 | 56 | 143 | 3 | 34 | 3 | 287 | 361 | 509 | 869 | 221 | 354 | 25 | 10 | 379 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 428 | 388 | 109 | 23 | 2 | 22 | 28 | 135 | 8 | 18 | 6 | 281 | 342 | 521 | 863 | 240 | 370 | 32 | 7 | 376 | 140 | +21 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +9 | 3.6 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 428 | 385 | 110 | 24 | 2 | 23 | 31 | 132 | 8 | 18 | 6 | 286 | 351 | 538 | 889 | 252 | 372 | 31 | 7 | 385 | 140 | +21 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +9 | 3.6 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 480 | 433 | 91 | 18 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 144 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 210 | 274 | 319 | 593 | 109 | 290 | 30 | 6 | 261 | 63 | -21 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +10 | -0.9 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 480 | 428 | 99 | 20 | 1 | 10 | 34 | 132 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 231 | 301 | 353 | 654 | 121 | 308 | 28 | 7 | 292 | 63 | -21 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +10 | -0.9 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Comets | — | 134 | 119 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 185 | 265 | 336 | 601 | 151 | 265 | 37 | 7 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA RAW | Oklahoma City Comets | — | 134 | 114 | 27 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 41 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 237 | 341 | 465 | 806 | 228 | 304 | 31 | 11 | 352 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 83 | 78 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 218 | 275 | 244 | 519 | 26 | 314 | 28 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Eugene Emeralds | — | 432 | 391 | 72 | 18 | 1 | 14 | 29 | 173 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 184 | 256 | 343 | 599 | 159 | 277 | 40 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 519 | 470 | 86 | 15 | 3 | 16 | 25 | 212 | 19 | 20 | 1 | 183 | 254 | 330 | 584 | 147 | 275 | 41 | 5 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 578 | 530 | 131 | 23 | 7 | 18 | 40 | 160 | 3 | 34 | 3 | 247 | 303 | 419 | 722 | 172 | 318 | 28 | 7 | 311 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 428 | 389 | 109 | 23 | 2 | 22 | 28 | 135 | 8 | 18 | 6 | 280 | 342 | 519 | 861 | 239 | 361 | 32 | 7 | 376 | 140 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 480 | 439 | 91 | 18 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 144 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 207 | 274 | 314 | 588 | 107 | 286 | 30 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Comets | — | 134 | 120 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 183 | 265 | 333 | 598 | 150 | 257 | 37 | 7 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 428 | 389 | 109 | 23 | 2 | 22 | 28 | 135 | 8 | 18 | 6 | 280 | 342 | 519 | 861 | 239 | 361 | 32 | 7 | 376 | 140 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 480 | 439 | 91 | 18 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 144 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 207 | 274 | 314 | 588 | 107 | 286 | 30 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Comets | — | 134 | 120 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 183 | 265 | 333 | 598 | 150 | 257 | 37 | 7 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | LAD | 10% | 333 | 301 | 67 | 13 | 1 | 11 | 23 | 97 | 6 | 22 | 3 | 221 | 289 | 376 | 665 | 155 | 285 | 29 | 7 | 296 | 87 | -5 | +3 | +0 | +1 | +7 | 0.5 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | LAD | 10% | 22 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 218 | 286 | 374 | 660 | 156 | 279 | 27 | 9 | 294 | 87 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | LAD | 33% | 236 | 214 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 69 | 4 | 14 | 2 | 218 | 285 | 368 | 653 | 150 | 283 | 29 | 7 | 291 | 83 | -5 | +2 | -2 | +1 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | LAD | 33% | 77 | 71 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 215 | 282 | 366 | 648 | 151 | 277 | 30 | 6 | 289 | 83 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +2 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 695 | 634 | 157 | 34 | 3 | 23 | 46 | 211 | 7 | 32 | 9 | 248 | 306 | 420 | 725 | 172 | 333 | 30 | 7 | 320 | 82 | +2 | +3 | -0 | +9 | +15 | 2.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 593 | 148 | 32 | 3 | 22 | 43 | 197 | 7 | 30 | 8 | 250 | 308 | 425 | 733 | 175 | 335 | 30 | 7 | 320 | 82 | +2 | +3 | -0 | +8 | +14 | 2.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3112 | 2819 | 620 | 123 | 16 | 97 | 197 | 1030 | 59 | 132 | 22 | 220 | 285 | 378 | 663 | 158 | 305 | 33 | 6 | 289 | 82 | -4 | +7 | -1 | +10 | +23 | 3.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 129 | 26 | 3 | 20 | 41 | 215 | 12 | 28 | 5 | 219 | 283 | 375 | 659 | 156 | 304 | 33 | 6 | 289 | 82 | -3 | +4 | -1 | +6 | +14 | 2.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 134 PAwOBA .348 → .267 (−81)K% 30.6% → 36.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.60% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.19% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 7.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.24% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 2.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.990 | ×0.982 | 16.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.990 | ×0.982 | 8.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.990 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 5.65% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .348 → .267; ISO .228 → .163; BABIP .304 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAASacramento River Cats · 237 PAwOBA .310 → .250 (−61)K% 26.2% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.16% | ÷1.010 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.17% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 4.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.95% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 2.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.16% | ÷1.030 | ×0.930 | ×0.979 | ×0.992 | 21.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.71% | ÷0.959 | ×0.830 | ×0.979 | ×0.992 | 5.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.979 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.03% | ÷0.938 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 2.98% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 106, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .310 → .250; ISO .133 → .100; BABIP .317 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAASacramento River Cats · 87 PAwOBA .468 → .385 (−83)K% 27.6% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.59% | ÷1.081 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.34% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.60% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 4.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.15% | ÷0.976 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 18.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.64% | ÷1.052 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 8.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.091 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 17.02% | ÷1.010 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 11.83% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 118, K 116, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .468 → .385; ISO .408 → .313; BABIP .333 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAASacramento River Cats · 466 PAwOBA .365 → .301 (−64)K% 23.8% → 26.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.82% | ÷1.087 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.44% | ÷0.981 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.43% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.67% | ÷0.992 | ×0.930 | ×0.958 | ×1.018 | 22.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.58% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×0.958 | ×1.018 | 5.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.32% | ÷0.956 | ×0.970 | ×0.958 | ×1.018 | 1.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.58% | ÷1.057 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 4.44% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 98, 2B 98, 3B 91, K 117, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .365 → .301; ISO .212 → .159; BABIP .346 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 78 PAwOBA .420 → .359 (−62)K% 28.2% → 34.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.21% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.54% | ÷0.985 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 8.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.28% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.91% | ÷0.978 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.988 | 23.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.04% | ÷1.003 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 11.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 6.52% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.988 | 6.80% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.906 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 3.70% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 96, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .420 → .359; ISO .265 → .231; BABIP .455 → .429. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 519 PAwOBA .319 → .255 (−63)K% 32.9% → 40.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.95% | ÷0.984 | ×1.220 | — | — | 40.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.13% | ÷1.018 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 4.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.66% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 3.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.13% | ÷0.991 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 19.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.04% | ÷1.011 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 5.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.06% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 1.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.39% | ÷0.929 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 6.20% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 97, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .319 → .255; ISO .196 → .154; BABIP .310 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Eugene Emeralds · 432 PAwOBA .357 → .258 (−99)K% 32.2% → 40.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.18% | ÷1.083 | ×1.350 | — | — | 40.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.80% | ÷0.924 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 6.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.08% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 1.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.99% | ÷1.016 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 17.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.52% | ÷1.135 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 7.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.82% | ÷1.029 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.82% | ÷1.049 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 6.11% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 103, 2B 127, 3B 106, K 117, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .357 → .258; ISO .233 → .160; BABIP .360 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAugusta GreenJackets · 83 PAwOBA .285 → .241 (−43)K% 20.5% → 27.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.48% | ÷0.997 | ×1.340 | — | — | 27.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.64% | ÷1.050 | ×0.660 | — | — | 6.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.09% | ÷0.958 | ×0.920 | — | — | 27.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.45% | ÷1.108 | ×0.820 | — | — | 4.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.909 | ×0.940 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.082 | ×0.820 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 92, 2B 122, 3B 82, K 99, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .285 → .241; ISO .042 → .031; BABIP .339 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).