J.P. Martínez — OGILVIE

J.P. MartínezRF Tomateros de Culiacan

Age 30 L/L 5'8" / 174 lbs INTL Svc 3.000 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 250 proj PA

wRC+†74

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .290 / .326

PA250

HR5

SB16

K%31

BB%9

ISO117

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 24 / POW 36

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2024

CONTACT24

Whiff%

2114.3%

xwOBA

100.201

POWER36

Barrel%

103.1

Avg EV

1085.7

Bat Spd

3770.0

EYE50

Chase%

5331.2%

SPEED71

Sprint

2226.1

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	22	INTL	2 teams	—	91	74	20	2	2	2	15	28	2	6	5	270	407	432	839	162	409	31	16	403	167	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	INTL	2 teams	—	91	74	26	6	2	2	15	20	2	6	5	351	473	568	1.040	216	462	22	16	456	207	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+	2 teams	—	500	462	79	17	4	9	27	220	5	32	13	171	225	284	508	113	294	44	5	223	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+	2 teams	—	500	447	111	22	5	15	42	156	5	32	13	248	320	421	740	172	342	31	8	326	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	341	303	66	13	4	4	24	133	8	20	0	218	293	327	619	109	373	39	7	267	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	341	285	69	13	4	5	42	112	8	20	0	242	355	368	724	126	381	33	12	326	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AA	2 teams	—	468	416	85	11	8	14	46	162	5	39	9	204	291	370	661	166	296	35	10	292	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AA	2 teams	—	468	395	96	14	8	15	67	129	5	39	9	243	360	433	793	190	323	28	14	355	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	3 teams	—	412	357	79	17	4	11	44	134	6	38	4	221	317	384	701	162	315	33	11	301	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	3 teams	—	412	340	97	23	4	15	61	101	6	38	4	285	403	509	912	224	360	25	15	398	163	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	438	394	76	18	1	5	36	155	5	37	8	193	269	282	551	89	301	35	8	251	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	438	377	88	22	2	6	53	118	5	37	8	233	336	350	686	117	322	27	12	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	INTL	Tomateros de Culiacan	—	324	262	66	9	2	13	50	66	3	25	6	252	378	450	828	198	286	20	15	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	INTL	Tomateros de Culiacan	—	324	262	66	9	2	13	50	66	3	25	6	252	378	450	828	198	286	20	15	361	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	ATL	—	250	223	47	10	1	5	22	79	3	16	3	211	290	332	622	121	301	32	9	282	74	-7	+2	-0	-3	+7	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	31	MLB	ATL	22%	365	325	69	14	2	7	33	113	4	20	4	212	293	332	625	120	297	31	9	282	74	-11	+2	-3	-4	+10	-0.5
2027	31	MLB	ATL	22%	78	70	14	3	0	1	7	24	1	4	1	200	282	286	568	86	297	31	9	273	67	-3	+0	-1	-1	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	122	110	23	4	0	2	9	40	1	4	1	209	275	300	575	91	300	33	7	266	61	-5	+0	-2	-5	+3	-0.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	123	21	0	11	48	213	5	21	5	210	275	302	577	92	300	33	7	266	61	-28	+2	-12	-28	+18	-4.8
Career	—			—	3189	2816	587	111	28	70	297	1090	41	233	52	208	293	342	636	134	309	34	9	246	46	-194	+26	-5	-34	+90	-12.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	120	23	6	14	61	222	8	47	11	209	294	343	637	134	311	34	9	246	46	-40	+5	-1	-7	+18	-2.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	22	ROK	DSL Rangers 1	—	33	22	9	1	1	1	9	7	2	2	3	409	606	682	1.288	273	571	21	27	550	279	+7	-1	—	—	+1	0.7
2018	22	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	58	52	17	5	1	1	6	13	0	4	2	327	397	519	916	192	421	22	10	403	166	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
2019	23	A+	Down East Wood Ducks	—	456	407	101	21	4	14	39	144	5	28	12	248	322	423	744	174	344	32	9	328	109	+5	+1	—	—	+13	1.9
2019	23	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	44	40	10	1	1	1	3	12	0	4	1	250	302	400	702	150	321	27	7	305	91	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2021	25	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	341	285	69	13	4	5	42	112	8	20	0	242	355	368	724	126	381	33	12	326	108	+3	+4	—	—	+10	1.7
2022	26	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	167	141	28	7	2	6	24	53	1	14	0	199	319	404	724	206	268	32	14	323	105	+1	+3	—	—	+5	0.9
2022	26	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	301	254	68	7	6	9	43	76	4	25	9	268	382	449	831	181	349	25	14	372	143	+15	+1	—	—	+9	2.5
2023	27	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	44	40	9	1	0	1	2	16	0	0	0	225	262	325	587	100	320	36	5	252	51	-2	+0	-1	-4	+1	-0.7
2023	27	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	353	289	86	21	4	14	55	81	6	38	4	298	420	543	963	246	367	23	16	419	179	+31	+6	—	—	+10	4.8
2023	27	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	15	11	2	1	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	182	400	273	673	91	286	27	27	332	112	+0	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
2024	28	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	438	377	88	22	2	6	53	118	5	37	8	233	336	350	686	117	322	27	12	313	98	-1	+4	—	—	+12	1.6
2025	29	INTL	Tomateros de Culiacan	—	324	262	66	9	2	13	50	66	3	25	6	252	378	450	828	198	286	20	15	361	134	+13	+3	—	—	+9	2.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	44	40	9	1	0	1	2	16	0	0	0	225	262	325	587	100	320	36	5	252	51	-2	+0	-1	-4	+1	-0.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Damian Jacksonlast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,930 PA	6	1,930	21	95	248	324	354	-6	-5	3.6	3.6
	/162	664	7	33	248	324	354	-1.9	-1.6	1.2	pk7: 4
#3Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#4Eric Young Jr.last yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,925 PA	9	1,925	13	161	245	312	332	-11	-8	1.2	1.7
	/162	664	4	56	245	312	332	-3.9	-2.7	0.4	pk7: 2
#5Doug Glanvillelast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA	5	2,256	35	90	259	290	356	-9	+3	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	10	26	259	290	356	-2.8	+0.9	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	328	6	20	213	290	330	-4	-1	-0.3	-0.1
	/162	664	12	41	213	290	330	-7.1	-1.8	-0.5	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
J.P. Martínez (OGILVIE)	30	24	36	71	50	210/290/326	116	301	5	16	31%	9%	74	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Billy Hamilton 2022 · MLB	31	44→54	42→40	61→70	41	212/262/323	111	292	8	32	30%	6%	59	-1.1	191/251/285	94	294	8	32	35%	7%	46	-2.0	134/203/173	39	225	2	52	38%	8%	-6	-1.1
✕Lane Adams 2019 · MLB	29	42→46	45→50	59→60	39	204/265/323	119	312	12	32	37%	7%	61	-1.0	202/270/352	150	319	18	17	40%	7%	72	-0.2	179/253/346	167	275	22	14	42%	8%	59	-0.7
✕Quintin Berry 2014 · MLB	29	47→57	38→40	63→65	46	219/290/294	75	298	5	38	26%	8%	64	-0.8	227/294/295	68	305	4	33	25%	8%	66	-0.6	229/297/285	56	312	3	37	25%	8%	62	-0.7
✕Darren Ford 2016 · AAA	30	46→53	41→45	58→65	44	222/275/316	94	285	9	39	25%	6%	63	-0.8	223/272/305	82	291	6	24	24%	6%	58	-1.2	221/267/269	48	296	1	23	24%	5%	43	-1.6
✕Elliot Johnson 2014 · MLB	30	45→53	42→45	59→60	45	219/274/323	104	281	10	33	25%	7%	65	-0.7	206/265/318	112	272	9	17	26%	7%	59	-1.1	186/247/294	108	249	8	12	27%	7%	44	-1.0
✕Roman Quinn 2022 · MLB	29	46→53	45	61→65	44	223/300/352	129	313	12	31	31%	8%	84	+0.6	206/300/330	124	345	11	25	39%	10%	79	+0.3	167/275/272	105	312	9	34	44%	11%	53	-0.4
✕Wynton Bernard 2022 · AAA	31	40→50	41→45	60	40	199/249/301	103	264	8	27	28%	5%	48	-1.9	234/284/358	124	291	12	32	23%	6%	78	+0.2	241/291/361	120	296	11	37	22%	6%	78	+0.2
✕Andrew Velazquez 2023 · MLB	29	43→51	46→50	60	39	214/267/340	126	306	13	31	34%	6%	66	-0.6	207/258/322	115	316	13	33	37%	6%	58	-1.2	211/254/305	94	318	10	30	35%	5%	48	-1.3
✕Trent Durrington 2007 · MLB	31	48→45	39→40	59→60	44	228/281/311	82	293	6	35	24%	6%	64	-0.8	221/280/306	85	284	6	26	23%	7%	63	-0.9	210/281/264	54	271	2	33	21%	8%	50	-0.7
✕Ben DeLuzio 2023 · MLB	28	45→49	42→45	59→60	40	217/273/330	112	295	9	29	29%	6%	66	-0.6	207/268/318	111	304	11	20	33%	6%	62	-0.9	148/223/226	79	244	8	18	40%	7%	18	-1.1
✕Todd Donovan 2009 · AAA	30	51→53	37→40	61→65	48	239/299/311	72	305	4	38	22%	8%	72	-0.2	229/308/315	86	300	5	31	23%	10%	78	+0.2	220/315/297	77	287	4	38	22%	12%	74	-0.0
●Dairon Blanco 2023 · AAA	30	48→49	48→50	62→70	41	239/294/378	139	312	16	42	28%	6%	88	+0.9	253/315/388	135	325	14	71	25%	6%	99	+1.7	253/321/383	130	320	13	95	24%	7%	98	+0.7
✕Ian Miller 2021 · MLB	29	46→56	43→40	58→60	43	225/276/337	112	275	10	29	22%	6%	69	-0.4	228/277/322	94	285	7	21	21%	6%	66	-0.6	230/279/303	73	289	3	25	20%	5%	59	-0.7
✕Esix Snead 2006 · AAA	30	47	37→30	63→65	50	219/294/292	73	267	4	44	19%	8%	66	-0.6	220/283/304	84	267	7	33	19%	7%	63	-0.8	204/265/243	38	243	4	46	16%	8%	38	-0.7
✕Tyler Wade 2023 · MLB	28	44→54	41→40	57→60	49	216/288/311	95	273	8	35	23%	9%	68	-0.5	227/294/306	79	301	6	35	25%	8%	69	-0.4	226/297/286	59	306	4	40	25%	8%	62	-0.4
✕Drew Jackson 2022 · AAA	29	43	45	57→55	47	207/296/332	126	302	13	28	33%	10%	78	+0.2	215/291/329	114	357	12	21	39%	9%	74	-0.1	187/265/256	69	364	8	20	46%	9%	41	-0.8
✕Eric Patterson 2012 · MLB	29	43→53	45→50	61→60	45	216/270/353	137	266	11	27	23%	7%	70	-0.3	203/272/296	93	272	8	18	26%	8%	57	-1.2	184/268/236	52	260	3	20	28%	10%	38	-0.8
✕Jorge Mateo 2023 · MLB	28	44→46	47→50	60→65	40	221/269/365	144	285	13	32	27%	5%	74	-0.1	218/266/352	134	276	13	40	25%	6%	69	-0.4	222/263/355	133	288	13	49	27%	5%	66	-0.2
✕Tyler Graham 2014 · AAA	30	48→56	39→40	60→65	44	230/292/318	89	291	6	33	22%	6%	71	-0.3	230/274/310	80	286	7	28	21%	4%	61	-1.0	234/273/287	53	289	4	38	20%	4%	50	-1.3
✕George Lombard 2007 · MLB	31	45→44	50	58→55	44	226/298/385	159	307	18	25	31%	8%	92	+1.2	227/291/365	138	323	15	23	32%	7%	83	+0.6	220/287/329	109	314	12	32	32%	8%	69	-0.1