Scott Kingery

2B Iowa Cubs

Age 33 R/R 5'9" / 180 lbs AAA HR -8% Svc 2.527 · Ctrl thru 2030

Overview

AAAPre-ArbFA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	30	AAAPHI	505	.268/.318/.488	25	25	62	—	.211/.245/.362
2025	31	AAA/ROKLAA	262	.242/.303/.425	7	2	39	—	.175/.218/.305
2025	31	MLBLAA	29	.148/.207/.185	0	1	13	-0.3
2026	32	AAACHC	142	.200/.281/.304	3	3	20	—	.155/.216/.225
2027PROJ10% MLB	33	MLBCHC	16	.214/.260/.338	0	0	65	-0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	34	MLBCHC	7	.205/.249/.318	0	0	56	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.3 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.527First FA2031

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Arb-1$0.2M2029Ext$0.4M2030Ext$0.6M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Max EV56

Speed46

BB%30

Whiff%27

K%26

Z-Con%16

CompsEli Whiteside (age 33) · Jeff Mathis (age 33) · Robert Andino (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .260 / .338

PA16

HR0

K%31

BB%6

BABIP285

ISO67

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2026

CONTACT40

xAVG

100.136

POWER50

Barrel%

295.5

Avg EV

1075.7

Bat Spd

4370.6

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

7128.3

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2018

Service 2.527 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2015	21	A	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	282	252	63	9	2	3	18	43	7	11	1	250	318	337	655	87	287	15	6	295	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	166	156	39	7	0	2	5	36	1	4	2	250	278	333	611	83	306	22	3	268	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+	Clearwater Threshers	—	420	375	110	29	3	3	33	54	7	26	5	293	361	411	772	117	334	13	8	344	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	88	77	18	3	0	1	7	18	0	5	0	234	298	312	609	78	288	20	8	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	286	265	78	11	3	8	13	58	5	10	2	294	339	449	788	155	348	20	5	346	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	317	278	87	18	5	18	28	51	4	19	3	313	384	608	992	295	324	16	9	419	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	484	452	102	23	2	8	24	126	3	10	3	226	269	338	608	113	291	26	5	270	67	-19	+1	-1	+5	+10	-0.3
2019	25	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	500	458	118	34	4	19	34	147	5	15	4	258	316	474	790	216	337	29	7	345	116	+9	+1	+1	+2	+11	2.5
2020	26	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	124	113	18	5	0	3	9	35	1	0	0	159	228	283	511	124	200	28	7	232	41	-9	+0	-3	+0	+3	-0.9
2021	27	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	19	19	1	0	0	0	0	12	0	0	0	53	53	53	105		143	63	0	48	-82	-4	+0	-0	-1	+0	-0.5
2021	27	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	88	72	13	4	2	0	13	27	1	3	0	181	314	292	606	111	277	31	15	278	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	366	305	70	14	4	7	54	108	2	18	2	230	349	370	720	141	330	30	15	325	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	466	405	99	18	3	13	48	135	3	24	1	244	329	400	729	156	328	29	10	321	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	505	463	124	17	5	25	34	138	0	25	2	268	318	488	806	220	327	27	7	347	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	29	27	4	1	0	0	2	11	0	1	1	148	207	185	392	37	250	38	7	186	13	-3	-0	-1	+1	+1	-0.3
2025	31	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	243	224	51	10	4	7	16	61	2	2	0	228	285	402	687	174	280	25	7	303	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	ROK	ACL Angels	—	19	16	7	3	1	0	3	4	0	0	0	438	526	750	1.276	312	583	21	16	541	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	142	125	25	4	0	3	12	39	2	3	1	200	281	304	585	104	259	27	8	264	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1156	1069	243	63	6	30	69	331	9	26	8	227	280	382	662	154	298	29	6	292	84	-22	+2	-4	+7	+25	0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2015	21	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	282	258	58	8	2	3	12	58	7	11	1	225	278	306	584	81	263	21	4	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	—	166	158	36	6	0	1	3	47	1	4	2	228	247	285	532	57	298	28	2	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+ MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	420	383	99	28	3	3	25	78	7	26	5	258	316	371	686	112	308	19	6	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	286	269	67	9	3	7	9	72	5	10	2	249	286	383	669	134	305	25	3	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	—	317	288	77	16	5	12	18	61	4	19	3	267	319	483	802	215	287	19	6	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	484	453	102	24	2	7	23	126	3	10	3	225	267	333	601	108	291	26	5	267	67	-19	+1	-1	+5	+10	-0.3
2019	25	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	500	459	118	35	4	18	33	147	5	15	4	257	314	468	782	211	337	29	7	339	116	+9	+1	+1	+2	+11	2.5
2020	26	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	124	113	18	5	0	3	9	35	1	0	0	159	228	283	511	124	200	28	7	229	41	-9	+0	-3	+0	+3	-0.9
2021	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	19	19	1	0	0	0	0	12	0	0	0	53	53	53	105		143	63	0	47	-82	-4	+0	-0	-1	+0	-0.5
2021	27	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	88	77	11	3	2	0	8	33	1	3	0	143	233	234	466	91	233	38	9	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	366	324	60	11	4	5	35	134	2	18	2	185	269	290	559	105	290	37	10	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	466	420	78	12	2	9	33	163	3	24	1	186	250	288	538	102	266	35	7	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	505	475	100	13	4	17	22	162	0	25	2	211	245	362	608	152	272	32	4	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	29	27	4	1	0	0	2	11	0	1	1	148	207	185	392	37	250	38	7	188	13	-3	-0	-1	+1	+1	-0.3
2025	31	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	243	230	38	7	3	5	10	75	2	2	0	165	207	287	494	122	222	31	4	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	ROK MLE	ACL Angels	—	19	17	5	2	1	0	2	6	0	0	0	294	368	529	898	235	410	32	11	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	142	129	20	3	0	2	8	47	2	3	1	155	216	225	441	70	211	33	6	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	282	258	58	8	2	3	12	58	7	11	1	225	278	306	584	81	275	21	4	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	282	252	63	9	2	3	18	43	7	11	1	250	318	337	655	87	287	15	6	295	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	674	620	154	39	3	4	33	143	8	35	7	248	295	340	635	92	313	21	5	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	674	608	167	39	3	6	45	108	8	35	7	275	333	378	711	104	322	16	7	315	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	603	558	143	25	7	19	26	134	9	29	5	256	300	428	728	172	302	22	4	312	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	603	543	165	29	8	26	41	109	9	29	5	304	363	530	893	227	336	18	7	384	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	484	453	102	24	2	7	23	126	3	10	3	225	267	333	601	108	292	26	5	267	67	-19	+1	-1	+5	+10	-0.3
2018	24	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	484	452	102	23	2	8	24	126	3	10	3	226	269	338	608	113	291	26	5	270	67	-19	+1	-1	+5	+10	-0.3
2019	25	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	500	459	118	35	4	18	33	147	5	15	4	257	314	468	782	211	338	29	7	339	116	+9	+1	+1	+2	+11	2.5
2019	25	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	500	458	118	34	4	19	34	147	5	15	4	258	316	474	790	216	337	29	7	345	116	+9	+1	+1	+2	+11	2.5
2020	26	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	124	113	18	5	0	3	9	35	1	0	0	159	228	283	511	124	200	28	7	229	41	-9	+0	-3	+0	+3	-0.9
2020	26	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	124	113	18	5	0	3	9	35	1	0	0	159	228	283	511	124	200	28	7	232	41	-9	+0	-3	+0	+3	-0.9
2021	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	107	96	12	3	2	0	8	45	1	3	0	125	200	198	398	73	226	42	7	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	107	91	14	4	2	0	13	39	1	3	0	154	267	242	508	88	259	36	12	237	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	366	324	60	11	4	5	35	134	2	18	2	185	269	290	559	105	296	37	10	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	366	305	70	14	4	7	54	108	2	18	2	230	349	370	720	141	330	30	15	325	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	466	420	78	12	2	9	33	163	3	24	1	186	250	288	538	102	273	35	7	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	466	405	99	18	3	13	48	135	3	24	1	244	329	400	729	156	328	29	10	321	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	505	475	100	13	4	17	22	162	0	25	2	211	245	362	608	152	278	32	4	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	505	463	124	17	5	25	34	138	0	25	2	268	318	488	806	220	327	27	7	347	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	291	274	48	10	4	5	14	92	2	3	1	175	221	296	516	120	242	32	5	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	291	267	62	14	5	7	21	76	2	3	1	232	293	401	694	169	297	26	7	307	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	142	129	20	3	0	2	8	47	2	3	1	155	216	225	441	70	220	33	6	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	—	142	125	25	4	0	3	12	39	2	3	1	200	281	304	585	104	259	27	8	264	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	282	261	58	8	2	3	12	58	7	11	1	222	278	303	581	80	263	21	4	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	674	628	154	39	3	4	33	143	8	35	7	245	295	336	631	91	305	21	5	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	603	563	143	25	7	19	26	134	9	29	5	254	300	425	725	171	296	22	4	312	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	484	455	102	24	2	7	23	126	3	10	3	224	267	332	599	108	291	26	5	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	500	458	118	35	4	18	33	147	5	15	4	258	314	469	783	212	337	29	7	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	124	113	18	5	0	3	9	35	1	0	0	159	228	283	511	124	200	28	7	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	107	97	12	3	2	0	8	45	1	3	0	124	200	196	396	72	217	42	7	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	366	326	60	11	4	5	35	134	2	18	2	184	269	288	557	104	290	37	10	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	466	427	78	12	2	9	33	163	3	24	1	183	250	283	533	101	266	35	7	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	505	478	100	13	4	17	22	162	0	25	2	209	245	360	605	151	272	32	4	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	291	273	48	10	4	5	14	92	2	3	1	176	221	297	517	121	237	32	5	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	142	131	20	3	0	2	8	47	2	3	1	153	216	221	437	69	211	33	6	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	505	478	100	13	4	17	22	162	0	25	2	209	245	360	605	151	272	32	4	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	291	273	48	10	4	5	14	92	2	3	1	176	221	297	517	121	237	32	5	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	142	131	20	3	0	2	8	47	2	3	1	153	216	221	437	69	211	33	6	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	33	MLB MLE	CHC	10%	252	235	51	9	2	6	13	74	2	6	1	212	258	335	593	123	281	29	5	264	65	-11	+1	-1	+1	+5	-0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	33	MLB CTX	CHC	10%	16	15	3	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	214	260	338	597	124	285	31	6	266	65	-1	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	CHC	6%	130	122	25	4	1	3	6	39	1	2	1	203	248	316	563	113	273	30	5	251	56	-7	+0	-5	+0	+3	-0.9
2028	34	MLB CTX	CHC	6%	7	7	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	205	249	318	567	113	276	29	0	253	56	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1163	1076	244	63	6	30	69	333	9	26	8	227	279	380	659	153	297	29	6	292	67	-22	+2	-5	+7	+25	0.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	601	136	35	3	17	39	186	5	15	4	226	279	379	658	153	296	29	6	292	67	-12	+1	-3	+4	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	4830	4447	967	197	36	99	270	1371	45	182	29	217	269	345	614	127	288	28	6	268	67	-35	+2	-10	+8	+31	-0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	598	130	27	5	13	36	185	6	24	4	217	268	344	613	127	289	28	6	268	67	-16	+1	-5	+4	+14	-0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIowa Cubs · 142 PAwOBA .261 → .198 (−63)K% 27.5% → 33.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.46%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	32.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.45%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.952	5.55%
HBP% /PA	1.41%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	1.26%
Singles /BIP	20.93%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.951	×0.952	17.62%
Doubles /BIP	4.65%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.951	×0.952	3.50%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.951	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.49%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.952	2.32%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.

Result: wOBA .261 → .198; ISO .104 → .072; BABIP .259 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASalt Lake Bees · 243 PAwOBA .294 → .217 (−78)K% 25.1% → 30.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.10%	÷0.978	×1.200	—	—	30.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.17%	÷0.964	×0.690	—	×0.962	4.25%
HBP% /PA	0.82%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.74%
Singles /BIP	18.40%	÷1.046	×0.930	×0.954	×0.962	15.03%
Doubles /BIP	6.13%	÷1.005	×0.830	×0.954	×0.962	4.65%
Triples /BIP	2.45%	÷1.079	×0.970	×0.954	×0.962	2.02%
Home runs /BIP	4.29%	÷0.989	×0.700	—	×0.962	2.92%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 109, 2B 101, 3B 116, K 96, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.

Result: wOBA .294 → .217; ISO .174 → .122; BABIP .280 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Angels · 19 PAwOBA .527 → .334 (−193)K% 21.1% → 31.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.05%	÷0.969	×1.440	—	—	31.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.79%	÷1.082	×0.620	—	×0.940	8.51%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.015	×0.820	—	×0.940	18.99%
Doubles /BIP	25.00%	÷0.992	×0.720	—	×0.940	17.06%
Triples /BIP	8.33%	÷1.134	×0.720	—	×0.940	4.97%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.873	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 103, 2B 98, 3B 127, K 94, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (11.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .527 → .334; ISO .312 → .193; BABIP .583 → .410. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 505 PAwOBA .339 → .260 (−80)K% 27.3% → 32.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.33%	÷1.022	×1.200	—	—	32.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.73%	÷1.021	×0.690	—	×0.972	4.42%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.69%	÷0.985	×0.930	×0.950	×0.972	20.65%
Doubles /BIP	5.23%	÷0.960	×0.830	×0.950	×0.972	4.17%
Triples /BIP	1.54%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×0.972	1.20%
Home runs /BIP	7.69%	÷0.989	×0.700	—	×0.972	5.29%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 97, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 104, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .339 → .260; ISO .220 → .155; BABIP .327 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 466 PAwOBA .316 → .239 (−77)K% 29.0% → 34.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.97%	÷0.996	×1.200	—	—	34.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.30%	÷0.982	×0.690	—	×0.982	7.10%
HBP% /PA	0.64%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.59%
Singles /BIP	24.07%	÷1.016	×0.930	×0.957	×0.982	20.70%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷1.117	×0.830	×0.957	×0.982	4.65%
Triples /BIP	1.11%	÷1.105	×0.970	×0.957	×0.982	0.92%
Home runs /BIP	4.81%	÷1.028	×0.700	—	×0.982	3.22%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 103, 2B 123, 3B 121, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.

Result: wOBA .316 → .239; ISO .156 → .107; BABIP .328 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 366 PAwOBA .318 → .248 (−70)K% 29.5% → 36.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.51%	÷0.970	×1.200	—	—	36.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.75%	÷1.067	×0.690	—	×0.992	9.47%
HBP% /PA	0.55%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.51%
Singles /BIP	22.84%	÷1.007	×0.930	×0.986	×0.992	20.63%
Doubles /BIP	7.11%	÷1.018	×0.830	×0.986	×0.992	5.66%
Triples /BIP	2.03%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.986	×0.992	2.14%
Home runs /BIP	3.55%	÷1.039	×0.700	—	×0.992	2.38%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 101, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 94, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .318 → .248; ISO .141 → .110; BABIP .330 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 88 PAwOBA .279 → .217 (−62)K% 30.7% → 37.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.68%	÷0.992	×1.200	—	—	37.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.77%	÷1.061	×0.690	—	×1.003	9.63%
HBP% /PA	1.14%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.07%
Singles /BIP	15.56%	÷1.016	×0.930	×0.950	×1.003	13.56%
Doubles /BIP	8.89%	÷0.952	×0.830	×0.950	×1.003	7.38%
Triples /BIP	4.44%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.950	×1.003	3.39%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.957	×0.700	—	×1.003	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 103, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 98, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .279 → .217; ISO .111 → .090; BABIP .277 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAReading Fightin Phils · 317 PAwOBA .410 → .338 (−72)K% 16.1% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.09%	÷1.012	×1.220	—	—	19.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.20%	÷1.045	×0.700	—	×1.027	5.64%
HBP% /PA	1.26%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	1.10%
Singles /BIP	20.26%	÷1.013	×0.970	×0.952	×1.027	18.99%
Doubles /BIP	7.93%	÷0.986	×0.860	×0.952	×1.027	6.76%
Triples /BIP	2.20%	÷1.063	×0.950	×0.952	×1.027	1.93%
Home runs /BIP	7.93%	÷1.220	×0.780	—	×1.027	5.21%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 144, 1B 103, 2B 97, 3B 113, K 102, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.

Result: wOBA .410 → .338; ISO .295 → .221; BABIP .324 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Pat Kelly'91-'99 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,235 PA	3.4	2,235	36	61	242*	299*	375*	+6	+11	3.7	3.8
/162	664	11	18	+1.7	+3.2	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Hernán Pérezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,811 PA	2.7	1,811	45	69	252	281	387	-0	+12	3.7	3.7
/162	664	16	25	-0.0	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 4
#4Carlos Sanchez'14-'22 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,503 PA	3.8	2,503	32	30	248*	305*	353*	+8	+0	2.1	2.6
/162	664	8	8	+2.0	+0.0	0.6	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.7	1,131	30	25	233	283	393	+4	-1	2.1	2.1
/162	664	18	15	+2.4	-0.8	1.2	pk7: 2
#5Scott Leius'90-'99 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,727 PA	2.6	1,727	28	16	237*	306*	358*	+5	+5	1.5	2.1
/162	664	11	6	+2.0	+1.9	0.6	pk7: 3
#6Pedro Garcia'73-'77 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,967 PA	3.0	1,967	37	35	220*	270*	388*	+6	-6	-0.3	-0.3
/162	664	12	12	+2.1	-2.0	-0.1	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Scott Kingery (OGILVIE)	33	40	50	45	35	210/256/332	122	281	4	4	29%	5%	65	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Eli Whiteside 2013 · MLB	33	40	41→50	43→40	42	198/254/298	100	253	9	5	25%	6%	56	-1.9	173/222/268	95	231	10	5	29%	5%	37	-3.3	136/179/216	80	179	10	1	31%	4%	7	-2.3
✕Jeff Mathis 2016 · MLB	33	40→48	43→50	48→45	43	203/258/315	113	271	11	4	29%	7%	61	-1.5	218/271/325	107	298	9	4	28%	6%	68	-1.0	209/264/294	85	295	6	1	29%	7%	59	-0.5
✕Robert Andino 2017 · MLB	33	41→51	44→45	50	38	209/248/322	112	275	12	8	28%	5%	58	-1.7	215/258/341	126	290	14	9	30%	5%	67	-1.1	188/222/301	114	246	15	2	30%	4%	41	-1.0
✕Jorge Velandia 2008 · MLB	33	47→51	41→40	46→45	42	229/268/327	98	282	8	9	22%	5%	67	-1.1	212/267/298	86	274	8	7	24%	6%	61	-1.5	192/254/234	42	250	4	3	23%	6%	38	-1.9
✕Jesus Alberto Vega 2015 · AAA	33	43	43→45	46→40	41	215/264/322	107	277	12	6	27%	6%	65	-1.2	208/256/297	89	296	8	5	31%	5%	55	-1.9	191/237/262	72	277	6	1	32%	5%	38	-1.0
✕Drew Maggi 2022 · AAA	33	41→51	46→45	49→60	41	205/283/331	126	293	14	14	33%	7%	75	-0.5	184/251/269	85	261	7	20	31%	6%	49	-2.4	156/223/217	61	220	4	22	29%	6%	24	-1.4
✕David Matranga 2009 · AAA	32	41	46→45	49→50	42	209/273/332	123	275	14	10	29%	6%	72	-0.7	219/299/343	124	297	12	9	28%	9%	84	+0.1	200/298/309	110	273	11	5	28%	10%	76	-0.2
✕Tyler Ladendorf 2021 · AAA	33	43→49	41→40	46→50	45	210/269/306	96	272	8	9	26%	7%	63	-1.4	209/258/335	126	279	14	8	29%	5%	66	-1.1	176/219/292	116	227	14	2	29%	4%	39	-1.1
✕Jed Hansen 2006 · AAA	33	39→37	44→45	51→50	39	197/259/317	120	272	11	14	31%	6%	63	-1.4	204/261/317	113	259	11	13	25%	6%	63	-1.4	187/243/285	97	229	11	12	23%	5%	47	-1.7
✕Gookie Dawkins 2011 · AAA	32	40→48	43→45	44→50	38	198/249/310	111	283	11	8	33%	6%	57	-1.8	202/256/331	129	284	14	11	33%	6%	64	-1.3	174/227/292	117	236	15	12	32%	6%	42	-1.8
✕Kristopher Negrón 2019 · MLB	33	44→49	45	54→55	39	217/273/341	124	302	13	16	32%	6%	73	-0.6	227/287/352	125	328	14	14	33%	7%	81	-0.1	227/288/343	116	327	14	14	33%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Pete Kozma 2021 · MLB	33	43→47	43→45	50	46	211/265/327	116	247	10	8	19%	6%	66	-1.1	201/248/289	88	257	6	8	24%	5%	51	-2.2	182/225/251	69	236	3	6	23%	4%	30	-3.1
✕Guillermo Quiroz 2015 · MLB	33	43	42→45	48→50	39	213/255/316	103	277	10	4	26%	5%	60	-1.6	212/253/316	104	274	10	5	26%	4%	59	-1.6	199/236/322	123	255	15	0	28%	3%	52	-1.1
✕Brandon Barnes 2019 · MLB	33	44→53	43→55	50	38	214/265/330	115	302	11	16	32%	5%	67	-1.1	213/263/378	165	288	21	13	33%	5%	78	-0.3	191/237/377	187	240	27	11	34%	5%	66	-1.0
✕Deven Marrero 2022 · MLB	31	40→50	45	48→50	41	201/260/316	115	284	13	8	33%	7%	62	-1.4	214/276/322	108	290	11	12	28%	8%	70	-0.9	194/257/262	68	256	7	15	26%	8%	45	-0.8
✕Trinidad Robles 2006 · AAA	33	47	45→40	49→45	45	233/285/353	119	284	13	11	23%	6%	80	-0.2	228/282/325	97	282	8	10	21%	6%	72	-0.7	221/276/300	79	274	6	7	21%	6%	63	-0.7
✕Humberto Sosa 2019 · AAA	33	42→48	42→45	49→45	43	207/255/305	98	260	10	7	24%	6%	57	-1.8	237/292/414	177	291	22	8	26%	6%	97	+1.1	233/288/455	221	269	30	0	26%	6%	103	+0.5
✕Mike Rivera 2011 · MLB	34	42	41→55	45	47	204/282/308	105	271	8	6	27%	8%	70	-0.9	201/264/306	105	273	11	6	29%	6%	61	-1.5	183/239/271	88	249	11	3	30%	5%	42	-0.9
✕Matt Carson 2014 · MLB	33	45→50	47→60	49→50	39	225/271/356	131	290	15	12	28%	5%	76	-0.4	207/262/322	115	275	13	14	28%	6%	65	-1.2	183/243/288	105	242	12	15	29%	5%	49	-1.0
✕Caleb Joseph 2019 · MLB	33	46→49	43→50	45→40	40	227/267/336	109	287	10	4	24%	4%	69	-0.9	217/267/342	125	286	13	6	28%	5%	71	-0.8	180/227/297	117	245	12	0	31%	4%	44	-1.0

Scott Kingery

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps