Yhoiker Fajardo — OGILVIE

Yhoiker Fajardo P Peoria Chiefs

+0.6 WAR

Age 19 RHP 6'3" / 181 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.7 · 2034

ERA4.18

FIP4.18

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.6%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%13.2%

IP65

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.7peak

2034

K†5560

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL White Sox	13	13	51	212	64	8	2	20.5%	4.7%	0.7%	3.91	2.37	+1.5
2025	18	A	Salem Red Sox	19	17	72	288	83	27	0	20.8%	11.2%	0.0%	2.25	2.76	+1.9
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	A+	Peoria Chiefs	2	1	8	34	10	0	1	—	—	—	2.35	—	—
ROS	19	MLB	STL	12	12	65	274	62	26	7	22.6%	9.5%	2.6%	4.18	4.18	+0.6
2026 Total	19	MLB	STL	—	—	73	308	72	26	8	23.4%	8.4%	2.6%	3.99	3.74	+1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	20	MLB	STL	12	12	68	288	66	26	7	23.1%	9.1%	2.6%	4.13	4.08	+0.7
2028	21	MLB	STL	13	13	72	302	71	27	8	23.5%	8.8%	2.5%	4.06	4.00	+0.9
2029	22	MLB	STL	14	14	75	317	77	26	8	24.4%	8.3%	2.5%	3.94	3.85	+1.0
2030	23	MLB	STL	14	14	78	329	83	27	8	25.1%	8.1%	2.5%	3.82	3.73	+1.2
2031	24	MLB	STL	15	15	80	337	86	26	8	25.7%	7.8%	2.4%	3.71	3.64	+1.3
2032	25	MLB	STL	15	15	81	341	89	26	8	26.0%	7.7%	2.4%	3.64	3.59	+1.4
2033	26	MLB	STL	16	16	88	371	97	28	9	26.2%	7.7%	2.4%	3.59	3.56	+1.6
2034	27	MLB	STL	17	17	91	385	101	30	9	26.2%	7.7%	2.4%	3.58	3.57	+1.7
2035	28	MLB	STL	17	17	92	387	101	30	10	26.2%	7.8%	2.5%	3.59	3.60	+1.7
2036	29	MLB	STL	16	16	90	378	99	30	9	26.1%	7.8%	2.5%	3.62	3.65	+1.6
2037	30	MLB	STL	16	16	87	367	95	29	9	25.9%	7.9%	2.6%	3.67	3.71	+1.5
2038	31	MLB	STL	15	15	84	354	91	29	9	25.6%	8.1%	2.6%	3.74	3.78	+1.3
2039	32	MLB	STL	15	15	80	340	86	28	9	25.4%	8.2%	2.7%	3.82	3.87	+1.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			34	31	130	534	114	42	3	21.3%	7.9%	0.5%	2.90	2.57	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—			52	48	200	819	175	64	5	21.3%	7.9%	0.5%	2.90	2.57	+6.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yhoiker Fajardo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.18	22.6%	9.5%	2.6%	—	3.97	23.7%	15.0%	215	-0.21	—	—	—
Andry Rondon R 2026 · 3.46 FIP	19	SW	3.46	19.8%	8.2%	1.8%	.283	3.98	15.6%	1.1%	49	+0.52	3.26	105	89
Jose Acuna R 2026 · 3.34 FIP	19	SW	3.34	23.1%	10.3%	1.6%	.242	4.98	18.3%	6.6%	207	+1.64	3.34	272	89
Dualvert Gutierrez R 2027 · 3.18 FIP	20	SW	3.18	23.5%	9.1%	1.7%	.352	4.29	15.9%	2.2%	78	+1.11	3.18	130	88
Israel Puello R 2025 · 3.01 FIP	18	SW	3.01	22.0%	9.2%	1.1%	.275	5.59	18.5%	6.6%	135	+2.58	3.01	266	87
Marco Raya R 2026 · 4.77 FIP	19	SW	4.77	21.4%	10.3%	4.0%	.250	4.42	20.0%	8.0%	254	-0.35	3.98	319	86
Caden Dana R 2026 · 3.64 FIP	19	SW	3.64	24.2%	12.3%	1.8%	.297	4.70	21.4%	10.9%	260	+1.06	3.64	329	86
Yimmi Brasoban R 2028 · 3.90 FIP	21	SW	3.90	20.4%	10.2%	2.3%	.261	4.36	16.7%	5.3%	78	+0.46	3.33	149	86
Luis Arejula R 2026 · 3.49 FIP	19	SU	3.49	21.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.318	4.43	15.7%	3.5%	71	+0.94	3.49	115	86
Jorge Marcheco R 2026 · 3.12 FIP	19	SW	3.12	25.0%	7.2%	2.2%	.336	4.90	17.7%	9.9%	280	+1.78	3.12	331	85
Peyton Remy R 2028 · 3.57 FIP	21	SW	3.57	19.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.280	4.71	16.3%	5.2%	140	+1.14	3.57	286	85
David Garner R 2029 · 3.81 FIP	22	SW	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	85
Sam Bragg R 2029 · 3.26 FIP	22	SW	3.26	23.2%	8.6%	1.9%	.306	3.98	15.7%	8.5%	203	+0.72	3.26	277	85
Mikell Manzano R 2026 · 3.54 FIP	19	SW	3.54	23.3%	9.0%	2.3%	.388	4.27	9.9%	1.4%	72	+0.73	2.56	175	85
Brendan Collins R 2029 · 3.69 FIP	22	SW	3.69	21.8%	10.3%	2.1%	.294	3.85	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.16	3.69	122	85
Peniel Otano R 2027 · 3.06 FIP	20	SW	3.06	19.3%	7.4%	1.2%	.307	4.65	14.6%	-1.0%	176	+1.59	3.06	232	84
Yoelvin Silven R 2026 · 3.94 FIP	19	SW	3.94	17.7%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	4.88	17.9%	12.6%	88	+0.94	3.94	254	84
Tanner Burns R 2029 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	22.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.292	5.40	19.5%	6.0%	244	+1.02	4.38	355	84
Cristian Javier R 2026 · 3.40 FIP	19	SW	3.40	22.3%	11.2%	1.4%	.278	3.75	26.6%	13.2%	250	+0.35	2.69	882	84
José López R 2028 · 4.04 FIP	21	SW	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.79	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.25	3.12	543	84
Wikelman González R 2026 · 3.28 FIP	19	SW	3.28	21.3%	9.0%	1.5%	.303	3.88	23.5%	8.2%	293	+0.60	3.28	462	84

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.2	$11M	+$10M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.3	$12M	+$11M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.4	$13M	+$12M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.6	$16M	+$12M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$6M	+1.7	$17M	+$11M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+1.7	$18M	+$9M
Totals		$21M		$87M	+$66M