Yhoiker Fajardo

P Peoria Chiefs

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 181 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.7 · 2033

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP50OGV rank#30ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	17	ROKCWS	13	13	51	3.91	1.56	30.2%	3.8%	—	K 20.5% · BB 4.7% · FIP 2.46
2025	18	MIX2 levels	19	17	72	2.25	1.92	28.8%	9.4%	—	K 20.8% · BB 11.2% · FIP 2.76
2026	19	MIX2 levels	23	21	101	3.82	3.05	29.9%	7.6%	—	K 23.2% · BB 8.6% · FIP 4.12
2027PROJ	20	MLBSTL	—	—	0	4.25	4.25	23.1%	8.9%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBSTL	11	11	54	4.07	4.02	23.6%	8.5%	0.8
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBSTL	19	19	97	3.95	3.86	24.5%	8.1%	1.7

Next 3 projected WAR 2.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$6M2033Arb-2$9M2034Arb-3$13M

Career WAR0.6 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 22, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 68%

CompsJaden Hamm (age 21) · Tanner Burns (age 22) · Garrett Burhenn (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.25

FIP4.25

K%23.1%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%14.2%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$82M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$12M	+$11M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.0	$13M	+$12M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.3	$14M	+$13M
2032	Arb-1	$6M	+2.4	$13M	+$10M
2033	Arb-2	$9M	+2.5	$13M	+$8M
2034	Arb-3	$13M	+2.4	$11M	+$5M
Totals		$31M		$75M	+$59M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	13	13	51	212	64	8	2	100%	3.9	20.5%	4.7%	15.8%	0.9%	3.91	2.46	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	13	13	51	212	64	8	2	100%	3.9	20.5%	4.7%	15.8%	0.9%	3.91	2.46	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL White Sox	13	13	51	212	64	8	2	100%	3.9	30.2%	3.8%	26.4%	0.9%	3.91	1.56	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	72	288	83	27	0	89%	3.8	20.8%	11.2%	9.6%	0.0%	2.25	2.76	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	72	288	83	27	0	89%	3.8	20.8%	11.2%	9.6%	0.0%	2.25	2.76	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	17	72	288	83	27	0	89%	3.8	28.8%	9.4%	19.4%	0.0%	2.25	1.92	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	101	435	130	33	12	91%	4.4	23.2%	8.6%	14.6%	3.4%	3.82	4.12	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	101	435	130	33	12	91%	4.4	23.2%	8.6%	14.6%	3.4%	3.82	4.12	—
2026	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	101	435	130	33	12	91%	4.4	29.9%	7.6%	22.3%	2.8%	3.82	3.05	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.1%	8.9%	14.2%	2.9%	4.25	4.25	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	STL	22	22	109	460	108	39	13	100%	5.0	23.6%	8.5%	15.0%	2.8%	4.18	4.13	+1.6
2029	22	MLB MLE	STL	26	26	133	562	138	45	16	100%	5.1	24.5%	8.1%	16.4%	2.8%	4.06	3.97	+2.3
2030	23	MLB MLE	STL	25	25	132	556	140	43	15	100%	5.3	25.1%	7.8%	17.3%	2.8%	3.95	3.86	+2.4
2031	24	MLB MLE	STL	24	24	132	559	143	42	15	100%	5.5	25.6%	7.5%	18.1%	2.7%	3.85	3.78	+2.6
2032	25	MLB MLE	STL	22	22	131	551	143	41	15	100%	5.9	26.0%	7.4%	18.6%	2.7%	3.77	3.72	+2.6
2033	26	MLB MLE	STL	22	22	131	554	145	41	15	100%	6.0	26.2%	7.4%	18.8%	2.7%	3.73	3.70	+2.7
2034	27	MLB MLE	STL	21	21	129	543	142	40	15	100%	6.1	26.2%	7.4%	18.7%	2.8%	3.73	3.73	+2.6
2035	28	MLB MLE	STL	21	21	123	520	135	39	15	100%	5.9	26.1%	7.6%	18.5%	2.9%	3.78	3.82	+2.3
2036	29	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	115	486	125	38	15	100%	6.1	25.8%	7.8%	18.0%	3.0%	3.88	3.95	+2.0
2037	30	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	105	442	112	36	14	100%	6.2	25.5%	8.1%	17.4%	3.2%	4.03	4.13	+1.6
2038	31	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	94	395	99	33	14	100%	5.8	25.1%	8.5%	16.6%	3.4%	4.21	4.33	+1.2
2039	32	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	82	348	86	31	13	100%	5.9	24.6%	8.9%	15.8%	3.7%	4.42	4.55	+0.8
2040	33	MLB MLE	STL	12	12	72	304	73	28	12	100%	6.0	24.1%	9.3%	14.8%	4.0%	4.65	4.80	+0.5
2028	21	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	54	228	54	19	6	100%	4.9	23.6%	8.5%	15.0%	2.6%	4.07	4.02	+0.8
2029	22	MLB CTX	STL	19	19	97	410	100	33	11	100%	5.1	24.5%	8.1%	16.4%	2.6%	3.95	3.86	+1.7
2030	23	MLB CTX	STL	21	21	111	469	118	36	12	100%	5.3	25.1%	7.8%	17.3%	2.6%	3.84	3.75	+2.0
2031	24	MLB CTX	STL	21	21	118	498	127	38	13	100%	5.6	25.6%	7.5%	18.1%	2.5%	3.74	3.67	+2.3
2032	25	MLB CTX	STL	21	21	120	507	132	37	13	100%	5.7	26.0%	7.4%	18.6%	2.5%	3.67	3.62	+2.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	STL	20	20	122	515	135	38	13	100%	6.1	26.2%	7.4%	18.8%	2.5%	3.63	3.60	+2.5
2034	27	MLB CTX	STL	20	20	122	515	135	38	13	100%	6.1	26.2%	7.4%	18.7%	2.6%	3.62	3.62	+2.4
2035	28	MLB CTX	STL	20	20	117	494	129	37	13	100%	5.8	26.1%	7.6%	18.5%	2.7%	3.67	3.71	+2.2
2036	29	MLB CTX	STL	18	18	109	460	119	36	13	100%	6.1	25.8%	7.8%	18.0%	2.8%	3.76	3.83	+1.9
2037	30	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	99	418	106	34	13	100%	6.2	25.5%	8.1%	17.4%	3.0%	3.91	4.01	+1.5
2038	31	MLB CTX	STL	15	15	89	376	94	32	12	100%	5.9	25.1%	8.5%	16.6%	3.2%	4.08	4.20	+1.1
2039	32	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	78	329	81	29	11	100%	6.0	24.6%	8.9%	15.8%	3.4%	4.28	4.41	+0.8
2040	33	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	68	287	69	27	11	100%	6.2	24.1%	9.3%	14.8%	3.7%	4.50	4.65	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		227	227	1306	5513	1401	436	154	100%	5.8	25.4%	7.9%	17.5%	2.8%	3.85	3.48	+30.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	215	67	24	100%	5.8	25.4%	7.9%	17.5%	2.8%	3.85	3.48	+4.7
Career	—	MLE		55	51	224	935	205	80	17	93%	4.1	21.9%	8.6%	13.3%	1.8%	3.33	3.33	+25.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	46	200	835	183	71	15	93%	4.1	21.9%	8.6%	13.3%	1.8%	3.33	3.33	+3.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Peoria Chiefs · 76 IPFIP 3.22 → 4.45 (+1.23)K% 32.1% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.12%	—	×0.770	24.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.88%	—	×1.150	9.06%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.17%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.22 → 4.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AASpringfield Cardinals · 25 IPFIP 2.54 → 3.09 (+0.56)K% 22.9% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.86%	—	×0.810	18.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.100	7.33%
HR / BF /BF	0.95%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.14%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.54 → 3.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ASalem Red Sox · 51 IPFIP 1.94 → 2.77 (+0.83)K% 27.8% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.83%	—	×0.740	20.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.43%	—	×1.180	11.13%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.891	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 1.94 → 2.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Red Sox · 21 IPFIP 1.60 → 2.75 (+1.15)K% 31.6% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.58%	—	×0.680	21.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.21%	—	×1.250	11.51%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.815	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 63).

Result: FIP 1.60 → 2.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL White Sox · 51 IPFIP 1.55 → 2.46 (+0.91)K% 30.2% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.19%	—	×0.680	20.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.77%	—	×1.250	4.72%
HR / BF /BF	0.94%	÷1.463	×1.400	0.90%

Result: FIP 1.55 → 2.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yhoiker Fajardo (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	3.98	24.4%	16.3%	374	-0.27	—	—	—
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	93
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.31	19.4%	6.5%	244	+0.97	4.34	382	86
Garrett Burhenn R 2022 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	21.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.333	4.37	16.9%	8.8%	341	-0.03	4.30	433	86
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.59	21.9%	14.0%	181	+0.37	3.22	270	85
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	85
Griffin Canning R 2018 · 3.69 FIP	22	SP	3.69	21.8%	10.0%	2.1%	.312	4.19	23.9%	15.3%	225	+0.50	3.60	809	84
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.19	20.3%	11.0%	243	-0.06	3.94	353	84
Cory Lewis R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	22	SP	3.43	21.7%	9.3%	1.8%	.267	5.06	21.6%	7.6%	233	+1.63	3.43	334	84
Trevor Harrison R 2024 · 4.03 FIP	18	SP	4.03	21.0%	10.6%	2.5%	.331	4.94	19.7%	7.0%	205	+0.91	3.79	277	84
Mason Black R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	22.3%	9.0%	2.9%	.297	4.62	21.2%	11.3%	364	+0.67	3.95	569	84
Levi Kelly R 2019 · 3.40 FIP	20	SP	3.40	22.9%	11.3%	1.5%	.285	6.29	19.4%	-7.9%	25	+2.89	3.40	125	84
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.53	18.9%	10.0%	359	+0.90	3.63	429	83
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	83
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	83
Adrian Florencio R 2021 · 3.08 FIP	22	SP	3.08	22.0%	9.0%	1.3%	.270	6.58	16.2%	2.5%	58	+3.50	3.08	153	82
Steven Zobac R 2023 · 3.27 FIP	22	SP-	3.27	19.7%	7.5%	1.6%	.332	4.28	18.5%	11.0%	205	+1.01	3.25	296	82
Drew Anderson R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	22	SP	3.37	21.1%	9.2%	1.6%	.295	4.71	16.3%	7.6%	273	+1.34	2.89	558	82
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	81
Jarrod Cande R 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP-	4.31	19.1%	7.3%	3.5%	.330	4.94	18.1%	9.1%	212	+0.63	4.31	315	81
Mason Englert R 2021 · 3.43 FIP	21	SP	3.43	19.5%	9.0%	1.5%	.311	4.53	22.1%	15.2%	249	+1.10	2.71	519	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.9	113	25.2%	8.0%	1.15	3.99
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20
Bruce Kison ('71-'85, 16 WAR*)	9.0	121	20.4%*	8.5%*	1.10*	4.16*
Danny Duffy ('21)	5.9	107	21.1%	8.7%	1.11	3.95
Rudy May ('65-'83, 28 WAR*)	13.1	175	23.4%*	8.6%*	1.00*	4.17*
Jose DeLeon ('83-'95, 22 WAR*)	9.5	146	25.8%*	10.4%*	1.01*	4.17*