Yhoiker Fajardo — OGILVIE

Yhoiker Fajardo P Peoria Chiefs

Age 19 RHP 6'3" / 181 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.3 · 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION64 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116107vR 98

ERA4.27

FIP4.27

K%21.9%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%12.2%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 128 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4055

CTRL—55

CMD3550

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$8M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$14M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$20M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$9M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL White Sox	13	13	51	212	64	8	2	100%	3.9	20.5%	4.7%	15.8%	0.7%	3.91	2.34	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL White Sox	13	13	51	212	64	8	2	100%	3.9	30.2%	3.8%	26.4%	0.9%	3.91	1.56	—
2025	18	MIX	2 levels	19	17	72	288	83	27	0	89%	3.8	20.8%	11.2%	9.6%	0.0%	2.25	2.76	—
2025	18	MIX	2 levels	19	17	72	288	83	27	0	89%	3.8	28.8%	9.4%	19.4%	0.0%	2.25	1.92	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	A+	Peoria Chiefs	15	13	64	277	86	23	11	87%	4.2	23.9%	9.5%	14.4%	5.0%	3.82	5.02	-0.3
ROS	19	MLB	STL	13	13	65	274	60	26	7	100%	5.0	21.9%	9.7%	12.2%	2.6%	4.27	4.27	+0.3
ROS	19	MLB	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.9%	9.7%	12.2%	2.6%	4.27	4.27	—
2026 TOT	19	MLB	STL	—	—	128	551	146	49	18	—	—	26.5%	9.0%	17.5%	3.3%	4.05	4.64	+1.1
2026 FULL	19	MLB	STL	—	—	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	21.9%	9.7%	12.2%	2.6%	4.27	3.89	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	STL	27	27	124	526	119	48	13	100%	4.6	22.7%	9.1%	13.6%	2.6%	4.18	4.12	+1.9
2028	21	MLB	STL	33	33	165	695	162	60	18	100%	5.0	23.3%	8.7%	14.6%	2.5%	4.08	4.00	+2.7
2029	22	MLB	STL	33	33	175	739	179	61	18	100%	5.3	24.3%	8.2%	16.1%	2.5%	3.94	3.84	+3.2
2030	23	MLB	STL	33	33	180	760	190	60	19	100%	5.5	25.0%	7.9%	17.1%	2.5%	3.81	3.72	+3.5
2031	24	MLB	STL	32	32	180	760	194	58	18	100%	5.6	25.6%	7.7%	17.9%	2.4%	3.70	3.63	+3.7
2032	25	MLB	STL	31	31	180	760	197	57	18	100%	5.8	25.9%	7.5%	18.4%	2.4%	3.62	3.57	+3.9
2033	26	MLB	STL	30	30	180	760	199	57	18	100%	6.0	26.2%	7.5%	18.6%	2.4%	3.58	3.55	+3.9
2034	27	MLB	STL	30	30	177	749	196	57	18	100%	5.9	26.1%	7.6%	18.6%	2.5%	3.58	3.59	+3.8
2035	28	MLB	STL	29	29	172	726	189	56	19	100%	5.9	26.0%	7.7%	18.3%	2.6%	3.64	3.67	+3.5
2036	29	MLB	STL	27	27	164	694	179	55	19	100%	6.1	25.8%	8.0%	17.8%	2.7%	3.74	3.80	+3.1
2037	30	MLB	STL	26	26	154	652	166	54	19	100%	5.9	25.4%	8.3%	17.2%	2.9%	3.88	3.98	+2.6
2038	31	MLB	STL	24	24	144	608	152	52	19	100%	6.0	25.0%	8.6%	16.4%	3.1%	4.06	4.18	+2.1
2039	32	MLB	STL	22	22	133	562	138	51	19	100%	6.1	24.6%	9.0%	15.6%	3.4%	4.27	4.41	+1.5
2027	20	MLB	STL	13	13	62	262	59	24	7	100%	4.8	22.7%	9.1%	13.6%	2.6%	4.18	4.12	+0.3
2028	21	MLB	STL	25	25	120	507	118	44	13	100%	4.8	23.3%	8.7%	14.6%	2.5%	4.08	4.00	+2.0
2029	22	MLB	STL	29	29	148	625	152	51	16	100%	5.1	24.3%	8.2%	16.1%	2.5%	3.94	3.84	+2.7
2030	23	MLB	STL	30	30	162	684	171	54	17	100%	5.4	25.0%	7.9%	17.1%	2.5%	3.81	3.72	+3.2
2031	24	MLB	STL	30	30	166	701	179	54	17	100%	5.5	25.6%	7.7%	17.9%	2.4%	3.70	3.63	+3.4
2032	25	MLB	STL	29	29	168	709	184	54	17	100%	5.8	25.9%	7.5%	18.4%	2.4%	3.62	3.57	+3.6
2033	26	MLB	STL	28	28	171	722	189	54	17	100%	6.1	26.2%	7.5%	18.6%	2.4%	3.58	3.55	+3.7
2034	27	MLB	STL	28	28	168	709	185	54	17	100%	6.0	26.1%	7.6%	18.6%	2.5%	3.58	3.59	+3.6
2035	28	MLB	STL	27	27	163	688	179	53	18	100%	6.0	26.0%	7.7%	18.3%	2.6%	3.64	3.67	+3.3
2036	29	MLB	STL	26	26	156	659	170	52	18	100%	6.0	25.8%	8.0%	17.8%	2.7%	3.74	3.80	+2.9
2037	30	MLB	STL	24	24	147	621	158	51	18	100%	6.1	25.4%	8.3%	17.2%	2.9%	3.88	3.98	+2.4
2038	31	MLB	STL	23	23	137	578	145	50	18	100%	6.0	25.0%	8.6%	16.4%	3.1%	4.06	4.18	+2.0
2039	32	MLB	STL	21	21	127	536	132	48	18	100%	6.0	24.6%	9.0%	15.6%	3.4%	4.27	4.41	+1.5
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			334	334	1895	7999	2020	644	210	100%	5.7	25.3%	8.0%	17.2%	2.6%	3.81	3.43	+43.6
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	844	213	68	22	100%	5.7	25.3%	8.0%	17.2%	2.6%	3.81	3.43	+4.6
Career	—			47	43	186	777	170	69	15	91%	4.0	21.8%	8.9%	13.0%	2.0%	3.24	3.45	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—			50	46	200	834	182	74	16	91%	4.0	21.8%	8.9%	13.0%	2.0%	3.24	3.45	+4.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yhoiker Fajardo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.27	21.9%	9.7%	2.6%	—	3.97	23.5%	14.9%	464	-0.30	—	—	—
Owen Murphy R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	19	SP	4.23	22.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.325	4.15	24.9%	14.7%	149	-0.08	3.05	239	90
Ramon Marquez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP	19	SP	3.98	21.1%	8.8%	2.8%	.331	3.00	30.4%	19.8%	49	-0.98	3.00	104	87
Jaden Hamm R 2028 · 4.01 FIP	21	SP	4.01	23.5%	8.9%	3.2%	.273	4.70	17.1%	7.3%	83	+0.69	4.01	182	87
Andry Rondon R 2026 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP	3.46	19.8%	8.2%	1.8%	.283	3.98	15.6%	1.1%	49	+0.52	3.26	105	86
Levi Kelly R 2027 · 3.53 FIP	20	SP	3.53	22.9%	11.3%	1.7%	.285	6.05	19.4%	-7.9%	25	+2.52	3.53	125	86
Tanner Burns R 2029 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	22.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.292	5.42	19.5%	6.0%	244	+1.35	4.07	378	84
Dylan Jordan R 2026 · 3.96 FIP	19	SP	3.96	18.7%	11.6%	1.8%	.300	3.77	25.0%	10.6%	72	-0.19	3.77	148	83
Eric Silva R 2026 · 4.91 FIP	19	SP	4.91	20.1%	12.6%	3.5%	.306	4.97	17.3%	5.6%	163	+0.06	4.59	281	83
Trevor Martin R 2029 · 4.15 FIP	22	SP	4.15	21.3%	10.6%	2.7%	.297	4.41	19.9%	10.7%	211	+0.26	4.15	321	83
José López R 2028 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.72	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.32	3.08	543	83
Mike Vasil R 2029 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP	3.71	21.9%	10.5%	2.0%	.264	4.60	19.1%	9.4%	359	+0.89	3.71	429	83
Luis Arejula R 2026 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP	3.46	21.9%	8.7%	2.0%	.318	4.42	15.7%	3.5%	71	+0.96	3.46	115	83
Austin Cates R 2029 · 3.75 FIP	22	SP	3.75	19.7%	9.0%	2.1%	.266	5.12	17.3%	3.2%	73	+1.37	3.75	183	83
Marco Raya R 2026 · 4.77 FIP	19	SP	4.77	21.4%	10.3%	4.0%	.250	4.47	20.0%	8.0%	254	-0.30	3.83	358	83
Luis Patiño R 2026 · 3.39 FIP	19	SP	3.39	24.4%	11.0%	1.8%	.277	4.62	22.0%	12.1%	178	+1.23	2.49	504	83
Sem Robberse R 2026 · 4.44 FIP	19	SP	4.44	17.3%	11.4%	2.5%	.307	4.84	18.5%	9.1%	320	+0.40	4.44	423	83
C.J. Culpepper R 2028 · 3.52 FIP	21	SP	3.52	18.7%	10.1%	1.3%	.291	3.95	19.3%	7.5%	167	+0.43	3.41	253	82
Reggie Lawson R 2026 · 4.65 FIP	19	SP	4.65	21.0%	13.2%	3.0%	.313	4.94	18.5%	7.2%	145	+0.29	3.86	293	82
Garrett Burhenn R 2029 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP	4.19	21.1%	7.7%	3.5%	.333	4.44	16.9%	8.8%	341	+0.25	4.19	433	82
Mason Englert R 2028 · 3.43 FIP	21	SP	3.43	19.5%	9.0%	1.5%	.311	4.67	22.3%	15.1%	249	+1.24	2.77	461	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	14	159	25.0%	8.1%	1.02	3.85
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Alex Wood ('24)	9	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Joe Musgrove ('24)	9	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73