Yhoiker Fajardo — OGILVIE

Yhoiker Fajardo P Peoria Chiefs

Age 19 RHP 6'3" / 181 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 2.8 · 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION101 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 97

ERA4.23

FIP4.23

K%21.9%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%12.5%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 109 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$90M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4055

CTRL—55

CMD3550

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.9	$12M	+$11M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.3	$14M	+$13M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.6	$15M	+$14M
2032	Arb-1	$8M	+2.7	$14M	+$10M
2033	Arb-2	$14M	+2.8	$14M	+$7M
2034	Arb-3	$20M	+2.7	$12M	+$4M
Totals		$46M		$81M	+$59M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	13	13	51	212	64	8	2	100%	3.9	20.5%	4.7%	15.8%	0.9%	3.91	2.46	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	13	13	51	212	64	8	2	100%	3.9	20.5%	4.7%	15.8%	0.9%	3.91	2.46	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL White Sox	13	13	51	212	64	8	2	100%	3.9	30.2%	3.8%	26.4%	0.9%	3.91	1.56	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	72	288	83	27	0	89%	3.8	20.8%	11.2%	9.6%	0.0%	2.25	2.76	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	17	72	288	83	27	0	89%	3.8	20.8%	11.2%	9.6%	0.0%	2.25	2.76	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	17	72	288	83	27	0	89%	3.8	28.8%	9.4%	19.4%	0.0%	2.25	1.92	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	23	21	101	435	130	33	12	91%	4.4	23.2%	8.6%	14.6%	3.4%	3.82	4.12	—
YTD	19	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	23	21	101	435	130	33	12	91%	4.4	23.2%	8.6%	14.6%	3.4%	3.82	4.12	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	A+ RAW	STL	18	16	76	330	106	26	11	89%	4.2	32.1%	7.9%	24.2%	3.3%	4.01	3.22	—
2026	19	AA RAW	STL	5	5	25	105	24	7	1	100%	5.0	22.9%	6.7%	16.2%	1.0%	3.24	2.54	—
ROS	19	MLB MLE	STL	2	2	8	32	7	3	1	100%	3.8	21.9%	9.3%	12.5%	2.6%	4.23	4.23	+0.1
2026 TOT	19	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	109	467	137	36	13	—	—	29.3%	7.7%	21.6%	2.7%	3.85	4.13	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	STL	29	29	134	567	129	50	15	100%	4.6	22.7%	8.8%	13.8%	2.6%	4.15	4.09	+1.3
2028	21	MLB MLE	STL	33	33	175	738	172	63	19	100%	5.3	23.3%	8.5%	14.8%	2.5%	4.05	3.98	+1.9
2029	22	MLB MLE	STL	33	33	175	739	179	60	18	100%	5.3	24.3%	8.1%	16.2%	2.5%	3.92	3.82	+2.3
2030	23	MLB MLE	STL	33	33	180	760	190	59	19	100%	5.5	25.0%	7.8%	17.2%	2.5%	3.80	3.71	+2.6
2031	24	MLB MLE	STL	32	32	180	760	194	57	19	100%	5.6	25.6%	7.5%	18.0%	2.4%	3.69	3.61	+2.8
2032	25	MLB MLE	STL	31	31	180	760	197	56	18	100%	5.8	25.9%	7.4%	18.5%	2.4%	3.61	3.56	+2.9
2033	26	MLB MLE	STL	30	30	180	760	199	56	18	100%	6.0	26.2%	7.4%	18.8%	2.4%	3.56	3.53	+3.0
2034	27	MLB MLE	STL	30	30	177	749	196	56	18	100%	5.9	26.1%	7.4%	18.7%	2.5%	3.57	3.57	+2.9
2035	28	MLB MLE	STL	29	29	172	726	189	55	19	100%	5.9	26.0%	7.6%	18.4%	2.6%	3.62	3.65	+2.6
2036	29	MLB MLE	STL	27	27	164	694	179	54	19	100%	6.1	25.8%	7.8%	18.0%	2.7%	3.72	3.78	+2.2
2037	30	MLB MLE	STL	26	26	154	652	166	53	19	100%	5.9	25.4%	8.1%	17.3%	2.9%	3.87	3.96	+1.7
2038	31	MLB MLE	STL	24	24	144	608	152	51	19	100%	6.0	25.0%	8.5%	16.6%	3.1%	4.05	4.16	+1.3
2039	32	MLB MLE	STL	22	22	133	562	138	50	19	100%	6.1	24.6%	8.9%	15.7%	3.4%	4.25	4.39	+0.8
2027	20	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	66	279	63	25	7	100%	4.7	22.7%	8.8%	13.8%	2.4%	4.05	3.99	+0.6
2028	21	MLB CTX	STL	26	26	128	540	126	46	13	100%	4.9	23.3%	8.5%	14.8%	2.4%	3.95	3.88	+1.4
2029	22	MLB CTX	STL	29	29	148	625	152	50	15	100%	5.1	24.3%	8.1%	16.2%	2.3%	3.82	3.72	+1.9
2030	23	MLB CTX	STL	30	30	162	684	171	53	16	100%	5.4	25.0%	7.8%	17.2%	2.3%	3.71	3.62	+2.3
2031	24	MLB CTX	STL	30	30	166	701	179	53	16	100%	5.5	25.6%	7.5%	18.0%	2.3%	3.60	3.52	+2.6
2032	25	MLB CTX	STL	29	29	168	709	184	52	16	100%	5.8	25.9%	7.4%	18.5%	2.3%	3.52	3.47	+2.7
2033	26	MLB CTX	STL	28	28	171	722	189	53	16	100%	6.1	26.2%	7.4%	18.8%	2.3%	3.47	3.44	+2.8
2034	27	MLB CTX	STL	28	28	168	709	185	53	16	100%	6.0	26.1%	7.4%	18.7%	2.3%	3.48	3.48	+2.7
2035	28	MLB CTX	STL	27	27	163	688	179	52	16	100%	6.0	26.0%	7.6%	18.4%	2.4%	3.52	3.55	+2.5
2036	29	MLB CTX	STL	26	26	156	659	170	51	17	100%	6.0	25.8%	7.8%	18.0%	2.5%	3.62	3.68	+2.1
2037	30	MLB CTX	STL	24	24	147	621	158	50	17	100%	6.1	25.4%	8.1%	17.3%	2.7%	3.76	3.85	+1.6
2038	31	MLB CTX	STL	23	23	137	578	145	49	17	100%	6.0	25.0%	8.5%	16.6%	2.9%	3.93	4.04	+1.2
2039	32	MLB CTX	STL	21	21	127	536	132	48	17	100%	6.0	24.6%	8.9%	15.7%	3.2%	4.12	4.26	+0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		336	336	1907	8050	2032	635	198	100%	5.7	25.2%	7.9%	17.3%	2.5%	3.70	3.32	+37.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	213	67	21	100%	5.7	25.2%	7.9%	17.3%	2.5%	3.70	3.32	+3.9
Career	—	MLE		55	51	224	935	205	80	17	93%	4.1	21.9%	8.6%	13.3%	1.8%	3.33	3.33	+28.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	46	200	835	183	71	15	93%	4.1	21.9%	8.6%	13.3%	1.8%	3.33	3.33	+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yhoiker Fajardo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.23	21.9%	9.3%	2.6%	—	3.95	23.5%	15.0%	484	-0.28	—	—	—
Owen Murphy R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	19	SP	4.20	22.0%	9.9%	3.1%	.325	4.03	22.8%	13.3%	186	-0.17	2.78	275	92
Andry Rondon R 2015 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP	3.46	19.8%	8.2%	1.8%	.283	3.98	15.6%	1.1%	49	+0.52	3.26	105	86
Levi Kelly R 2019 · 3.40 FIP	20	SP	3.40	22.9%	11.3%	1.5%	.285	6.29	19.4%	-7.9%	25	+2.89	3.40	125	86
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	84
Luis Patiño R 2019 · 3.28 FIP	19	SP	3.28	24.4%	11.0%	1.6%	.277	4.58	22.0%	12.1%	178	+1.30	2.52	504	83
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	83
Mason Englert R 2021 · 3.43 FIP	21	SP	3.43	19.5%	9.0%	1.5%	.311	4.55	21.9%	14.9%	249	+1.12	2.74	508	83
Griffin Canning R 2018 · 3.69 FIP	22	SP	3.69	21.8%	10.0%	2.1%	.312	4.19	23.9%	15.3%	225	+0.50	3.60	801	83
Cory Lewis R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	22	SP	3.43	21.7%	9.3%	1.8%	.267	5.06	21.6%	7.5%	229	+1.63	3.43	330	83
C.J. Culpepper R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	21	SP	3.55	18.7%	10.1%	1.4%	.291	4.14	18.9%	7.4%	191	+0.59	3.30	277	83
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	82
Luis Arejula R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	19	SP	3.52	21.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.318	4.46	15.7%	3.5%	71	+0.94	3.52	115	82
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	82
Sem Robberse R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	19	SP	4.39	17.3%	11.4%	2.4%	.307	4.79	18.1%	9.2%	320	+0.40	4.36	423	82
Peniel Otano R 2021 · 3.06 FIP	20	SP	3.06	19.3%	7.4%	1.2%	.307	4.67	14.6%	-1.0%	176	+1.61	3.06	232	82
Cedric De Grandpre R 2023 · 3.38 FIP	21	SP	3.38	18.2%	7.0%	1.7%	.327	4.17	22.9%	8.9%	177	+0.79	3.38	264	82
Eric Silva R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	19	SP	5.03	20.1%	12.6%	3.7%	.306	4.89	17.3%	5.6%	163	-0.14	4.68	299	82
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	82
Reggie Lawson R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	19	SP	4.73	21.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.313	4.68	18.5%	7.2%	145	-0.05	4.19	293	82
Garrett Burhenn R 2022 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	21.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.333	4.37	16.9%	8.8%	341	-0.03	4.30	433	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	11.2	160	25.0%	8.0%	1.02	3.83
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36