Steven Zobac

P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

AA40-MANPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	25	23	126	3.64	2.54	23.8%	5.4%	—	K 18.8% · BB 6.1% · FIP 3.25
2025	24	MIX2 levels	14	14	45	7.25	5.07	21.3%	7.6%	—	K 17.1% · BB 8.8% · FIP 5.57
2026	25	MIX2 levels	19	19	54	4.50	4.34	24.9%	9.0%	—	K 18.8% · BB 10.6% · FIP 6.20
2027PROJ	26	MLBKC	1	1	6	4.95	4.95	18.1%	8.2%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	27	MLBKC	4	4	23	4.91	4.93	18.6%	8.3%	0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	28	MLBKC	5	5	30	4.93	4.97	18.9%	8.6%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 1.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsNick Payero (age 24) · Jake Walters (age 26) · Seth Shuman (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

K%18.1%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%9.9%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	18	91	374	98	24	5	82%	4.1	19.7%	7.5%	12.2%	1.6%	3.47	3.27	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	18	91	374	98	24	5	82%	4.1	26.2%	6.4%	19.8%	1.3%	3.47	2.45	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	126	517	123	28	7	92%	5.0	18.8%	6.1%	12.7%	1.8%	3.64	3.25	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	126	517	123	28	7	92%	5.0	18.8%	6.1%	12.7%	1.8%	3.64	3.25	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	126	517	123	28	7	92%	5.0	23.8%	5.4%	18.4%	1.4%	3.64	2.54	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	45	211	45	16	10	100%	3.2	17.1%	8.8%	8.3%	5.1%	7.25	5.57	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	45	211	45	16	10	100%	3.2	17.1%	8.8%	8.3%	5.1%	7.25	5.57	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	45	211	45	16	10	100%	3.2	21.3%	7.6%	13.7%	4.7%	7.25	5.07	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	54	221	55	20	9	100%	2.8	18.8%	10.6%	8.2%	6.1%	4.50	6.20	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	54	221	55	20	9	100%	2.8	18.8%	10.6%	8.2%	6.1%	4.50	6.20	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	54	221	55	20	9	100%	2.8	24.9%	9.0%	15.8%	4.1%	4.50	4.34	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	KC	1	1	6	25	5	2	1	100%	6.0	18.1%	8.2%	9.9%	3.6%	4.95	4.95	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	KC	9	9	53	225	42	19	8	100%	5.9	18.6%	8.3%	10.3%	3.6%	4.91	4.93	+0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	KC	8	8	49	205	39	18	7	100%	6.1	18.9%	8.6%	10.3%	3.6%	4.93	4.97	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	KC	4	4	23	97	18	8	3	100%	5.8	18.6%	8.3%	10.3%	3.6%	4.91	4.93	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	KC	5	5	30	127	24	11	5	100%	6.0	18.9%	8.6%	10.3%	3.6%	4.93	4.97	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	9	53	224	42	19	8	100%	5.9	18.8%	8.5%	10.3%	3.6%	4.92	4.57	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	158	72	30	100%	6.0	18.8%	8.5%	10.3%	3.6%	4.92	4.57	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		80	74	315	1323	249	101	39	92%	3.9	18.8%	7.7%	11.1%	3.0%	4.25	4.12	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	47	200	839	158	64	25	92%	3.9	18.8%	7.7%	11.1%	3.0%	4.25	4.12	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 43 IPFIP 5.15 → 6.20 (+1.05)K% 23.2% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.16%	—	×0.810	18.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.60%	—	×1.100	10.56%
HR / BF /BF	5.08%	÷1.000	×1.200	6.10%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.15 → 6.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Royals · 11 IPFIP 1.28 → 2.35 (+1.08)K% 31.8% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.82%	—	×0.680	21.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.82%	—	×1.250	8.52%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.28 → 2.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 36 IPFIP 4.84 → 5.57 (+0.73)K% 21.1% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.14%	—	×0.810	17.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.100	8.80%
HR / BF /BF	4.57%	÷1.077	×1.200	5.10%

Result: FIP 4.84 → 5.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Royals · 8 IPFIP 4.98 → 7.25 (+2.27)K% 22.2% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.680	15.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.56%	—	×1.250	6.94%
HR / BF /BF	5.56%	÷0.939	×1.400	8.28%

Result: FIP 4.98 → 7.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 71 IPFIP 2.59 → 3.24 (+0.65)K% 20.0% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.770	15.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.83%	—	×1.150	5.55%
HR / BF /BF	1.03%	÷0.959	×1.250	1.35%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 2.59 → 3.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 55 IPFIP 2.43 → 3.26 (+0.83)K% 28.6% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.63%	—	×0.810	23.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.17%	—	×1.100	6.78%
HR / BF /BF	1.76%	÷0.920	×1.200	2.30%

Result: FIP 2.43 → 3.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AColumbia Fireflies · 52 IPFIP 1.86 → 2.75 (+0.90)K% 29.9% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.90%	—	×0.740	22.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.88%	—	×1.180	6.94%
HR / BF /BF	0.98%	÷1.089	×1.300	1.17%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 118).

Result: FIP 1.86 → 2.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 39 IPFIP 3.12 → 3.88 (+0.76)K% 21.8% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.76%	—	×0.770	16.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.06%	—	×1.150	8.12%
HR / BF /BF	1.76%	÷1.033	×1.250	2.13%

Result: FIP 3.12 → 3.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Steven Zobac (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.6%	—	4.95	18.7%	10.3%	102	-0.00	—	—	—
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	79
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	79
Seth Shuman R 2024 · 5.47 FIP	26	SP	5.47	14.1%	8.0%	4.7%	.273	4.61	17.0%	11.3%	157	-0.86	3.16	357	78
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	77
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	77
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	77
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	77
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	76
Jake Lee R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	26	SP	3.76	20.5%	9.7%	2.1%	.362	5.42	16.1%	9.6%	113	+1.66	2.78	181	75
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	74
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	74
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	74
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.90	12.7%	5.3%	173	-0.43	4.40	412	74
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	74
Ryan Bergert R 2024 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	16.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.317	4.27	21.4%	11.7%	121	+0.33	3.44	428	74
Chance Kirby R 2021 · 5.83 FIP	26	SP-	5.83	15.1%	10.0%	5.0%	.242	4.59	18.5%	11.2%	138	-1.24	4.14	325	74
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	73
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	73
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	73
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	18.5%	8.3%	1.39	4.93
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*