Steven Zobac
P
Northwest Arkansas Naturals
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 185 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA4.45
FIP4.45
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.7%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%12.5%
IP58
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 22 | 18 | 91 | 374 | 98 | 24 | 5 | 19.7% | 7.5% | 1.6% | 3.47 | 3.27 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 25 | 23 | 126 | 517 | 123 | 28 | 7 | 18.8% | 6.1% | 1.8% | 3.64 | 3.27 | +2.9 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 14 | 14 | 45 | 211 | 45 | 16 | 10 | 17.1% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 7.25 | 5.54 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | KC | 23 | — | 23 | 99 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | KC | 58 | — | 58 | 247 | 52 | 20 | 8 | 21.2% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.42 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | KC | 58 | — | 58 | 245 | 52 | 20 | 8 | 21.4% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | KC | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 52 | 20 | 7 | 21.4% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.44 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | KC | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 50 | 20 | 7 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | KC | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 48 | 20 | 7 | 21.1% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.54 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | KC | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 46 | 19 | 7 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 4.58 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | KC | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 44 | 19 | 7 | 20.6% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | KC | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 41 | 18 | 7 | 20.3% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | KC | 45 | — | 45 | 192 | 38 | 18 | 7 | 20.0% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 4.84 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | KC | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 35 | 17 | 7 | 19.6% | 9.5% | 3.7% | 4.96 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | KC | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 32 | 16 | 6 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 5.09 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 61 | 55 | 261 | 1102 | 207 | 78 | 26 | 18.8% | 7.1% | 2.4% | 4.20 | 3.70 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 42 | 200 | 843 | 158 | 60 | 20 | 18.8% | 7.1% | 2.4% | 4.20 | 3.70 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Steven Zobac (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.45 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 3.1% | — | 4.43 | 21.3% | 13.0% | 174 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 90 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .275 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 230 | 90 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .238 | 4.78 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 263 | +0.40 | 3.84 | 299 | 88 |
| Connor Schultz R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.89 | 19.7% | 5.3% | 3.2% | .283 | 3.52 | 18.5% | 12.1% | 89 | -0.37 | 3.52 | 136 | 88 |
| Andres Avila R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.99 | 16.0% | 5.2% | 2.9% | .316 | 4.13 | 20.3% | 13.9% | 73 | +0.14 | 3.99 | 177 | 86 |
| Blake Goldsberry R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.39 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 2.2% | .257 | 5.29 | 23.6% | 12.0% | 44 | +1.90 | 3.39 | 117 | 85 |
| Danny Hrbek R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.99 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 100 | 85 |
| Justin Courtney R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.59 | 19.0% | 5.9% | 4.3% | .364 | 6.24 | 17.3% | 5.0% | 68 | +1.65 | 4.59 | 108 | 85 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.24 | 19.4% | 7.4% | 1.5% | .312 | 4.04 | 20.7% | 7.8% | 65 | +0.80 | 3.24 | 113 | 85 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.48 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .289 | 3.53 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -0.95 | 1.94 | 131 | 85 |
| Noah Gotsis R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.46 | 16.5% | 6.5% | 1.7% | .296 | 4.25 | 15.9% | 8.6% | 90 | +0.79 | 3.46 | 138 | 85 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.90 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 3.1% | .311 | 6.77 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.87 | 3.90 | 106 | 83 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.53 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .380 | 4.49 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.04 | 4.37 | 119 | 83 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.46 | 3.49 | 140 | 83 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 83 |
| Calvin Coker R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.99 | 16.3% | 6.8% | 2.6% | .333 | 3.97 | 14.2% | 4.9% | 131 | -0.02 | 3.96 | 219 | 82 |
| Rob Griswold R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.57 | 16.6% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .303 | 4.70 | 10.7% | 4.3% | 100 | +1.13 | 3.57 | 203 | 82 |
| Ryan Halstead R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.25 | 18.6% | 4.9% | 2.0% | .343 | 3.62 | 17.0% | 9.9% | 120 | +0.37 | 3.06 | 222 | 82 |
| Boby Johnson R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.69 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 4.0% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 145 | 82 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.68 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .313 | 3.35 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 93 | -0.33 | 2.78 | 312 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $4M | $6M | +$1M | ||