Steven Zobac — OGILVIE

Steven Zobac P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.3 · 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION54 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 101

ERA4.45

FIP4.45

K%18.1%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4540

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†4545

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	18	91	374	98	24	5	82%	4.1	19.7%	7.5%	12.2%	1.6%	3.47	3.27	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	18	91	374	98	24	5	82%	4.1	19.7%	7.5%	12.2%	1.6%	3.47	3.27	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	18	91	374	98	24	5	82%	4.1	26.2%	6.4%	19.8%	1.3%	3.47	2.45	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	126	517	123	28	7	92%	5.0	18.8%	6.1%	12.7%	1.8%	3.64	3.25	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	126	517	123	28	7	92%	5.0	18.8%	6.1%	12.7%	1.8%	3.64	3.25	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	126	517	123	28	7	92%	5.0	23.8%	5.4%	18.4%	1.4%	3.64	2.54	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	45	211	45	16	10	100%	3.2	17.1%	8.8%	8.3%	5.1%	7.25	5.57	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	45	211	45	16	10	100%	3.2	17.1%	8.8%	8.3%	5.1%	7.25	5.57	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	45	211	45	16	10	100%	3.2	21.3%	7.6%	13.7%	4.7%	7.25	5.07	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	19	19	54	221	55	20	9	100%	2.8	18.8%	10.6%	8.2%	6.1%	4.50	6.20	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	19	19	54	221	55	20	9	100%	2.8	18.8%	10.6%	8.2%	6.1%	4.50	6.20	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	ROK RAW	KC	6	6	11	44	14	3	0	100%	1.9	31.8%	6.8%	25.0%	0.0%	3.18	1.28	—
2026	25	AA RAW	KC	13	13	43	177	41	17	9	100%	3.3	23.2%	9.6%	13.6%	5.1%	4.85	5.15	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	KC	1	1	5	21	4	1	1	100%	5.0	18.1%	6.4%	11.7%	3.1%	4.45	4.45	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	59	242	59	21	10	—	—	24.3%	8.8%	15.5%	4.0%	4.50	6.05	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	113	479	89	31	15	100%	6.0	18.7%	6.5%	12.2%	3.1%	4.42	4.41	+0.7
2028	27	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	112	472	89	31	15	100%	5.9	18.9%	6.7%	12.2%	3.1%	4.42	4.43	+0.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	108	457	87	31	15	100%	6.0	18.9%	6.9%	12.1%	3.2%	4.47	4.51	+0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	103	437	82	31	15	100%	6.1	18.8%	7.1%	11.7%	3.3%	4.56	4.63	+0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	KC	16	16	97	410	76	30	15	100%	6.1	18.4%	7.4%	11.0%	3.5%	4.71	4.81	+0.1
2032	31	MLB MLE	KC	15	15	91	383	69	30	14	100%	6.0	18.0%	7.8%	10.3%	3.8%	4.89	5.01	-0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	55	232	43	15	7	100%	6.1	18.7%	6.5%	12.2%	2.8%	4.29	4.28	+0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	74	312	59	21	9	100%	6.2	18.9%	6.7%	12.2%	2.9%	4.29	4.30	+0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	84	355	67	24	11	100%	6.0	18.9%	6.9%	12.1%	3.0%	4.34	4.38	+0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	86	363	68	26	11	100%	6.1	18.8%	7.1%	11.7%	3.1%	4.42	4.49	+0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	84	355	65	26	12	100%	6.0	18.4%	7.4%	11.0%	3.3%	4.56	4.66	+0.1
2032	31	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	81	342	62	27	12	100%	5.8	18.0%	7.8%	10.3%	3.5%	4.73	4.85	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		77	77	463	1956	364	139	61	100%	6.0	18.6%	7.1%	11.5%	3.1%	4.45	4.13	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	157	60	26	100%	6.0	18.6%	7.1%	11.5%	3.1%	4.45	4.13	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		80	74	315	1323	249	101	39	92%	3.9	18.8%	7.7%	11.1%	3.0%	4.25	4.12	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	47	200	839	158	64	25	92%	3.9	18.8%	7.7%	11.1%	3.0%	4.25	4.12	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Steven Zobac (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.45	18.1%	6.4%	3.1%	—	4.45	18.8%	12.2%	333	-0.00	—	—	—
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	80
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	80
Nick Sinacola R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.3%	7.6%	3.4%	.313	3.97	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.23	3.56	357	78
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	78
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	78
Brandon Young R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	17.9%	6.3%	3.8%	.338	3.90	20.6%	13.1%	353	-0.59	3.08	476	78
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	76
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	76
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	76
Spencer Schwellenbach R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	14.5%	8.5%	1.9%	.273	3.09	24.5%	19.9%	266	-0.91	3.05	318	76
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.44	20.8%	11.9%	382	+0.06	2.77	544	75
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	75
Jeffrey Passantino R 2021 · 4.97 FIP	25	SP	4.97	18.5%	6.8%	4.7%	.298	4.72	14.8%	8.1%	41	-0.25	2.02	242	75
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	75
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.05	19.2%	13.6%	154	+0.14	3.87	262	74
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	74
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	74
Troy Melton R 2023 · 3.31 FIP	22	SP	3.31	18.9%	7.4%	1.6%	.299	4.24	22.3%	15.0%	330	+0.93	3.31	422	74
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	74
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	97	18.6%	7.0%	1.28	4.56
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13