Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 19 | 19 | 81 | 342 | 90 | 26 | 4 | 100% | 4.2 | 19.5% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 1.5% | 4.35 | 3.43 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 19 | 19 | 81 | 342 | 90 | 26 | 4 | 100% | 4.2 | 26.3% | 7.6% | 18.7% | 1.2% | 4.35 | 2.48 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 119 | 475 | 136 | 31 | 16 | 100% | 4.9 | 22.2% | 7.5% | 14.8% | 3.5% | 3.64 | 4.07 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 119 | 475 | 136 | 31 | 16 | 100% | 4.9 | 28.6% | 6.5% | 22.1% | 3.4% | 3.64 | 3.34 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 1 | 67 | 307 | 60 | 21 | 16 | 2% | 1.7 | 18.8% | 6.9% | 11.9% | 6.1% | 5.75 | 5.71 | -0.8 |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 1 | 67 | 307 | 60 | 21 | 16 | 2% | 1.7 | 19.5% | 6.8% | 12.7% | 5.2% | 5.75 | 5.34 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 44 | 6 | 71 | 296 | 83 | 22 | 10 | 14% | 1.6 | 26.2% | 7.1% | 19.0% | 5.2% | 3.79 | 4.67 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 44 | 6 | 71 | 296 | 83 | 22 | 10 | 14% | 1.6 | 28.0% | 7.4% | 20.6% | 3.4% | 3.79 | 3.52 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 1 | 67 | 276 | 70 | 16 | 5 | 2% | 1.6 | 24.2% | 5.9% | 18.3% | 1.8% | 2.97 | 2.77 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 1 | 67 | 276 | 70 | 16 | 5 | 2% | 1.6 | 25.4% | 5.8% | 19.6% | 1.8% | 2.97 | 2.69 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 20 | 8 | 64 | 278 | 61 | 10 | 14 | 40% | 3.2 | 20.5% | 3.7% | 16.8% | 5.3% | 4.36 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | TB | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 5.5% | 16.2% | 3.7% | 4.16 | 4.01 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | TB | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 5.5% | 16.2% | 3.7% | 4.16 | 4.01 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | TB | — | — | 73 | 316 | 69 | 12 | 15 | — | — | 21.9% | 3.8% | 18.1% | 4.9% | 4.33 | 4.67 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | TB | — | — | 40 | 168 | 69 | 12 | 15 | — | — | 41.3% | 7.2% | 34.1% | 9.2% | 7.97 | 5.57 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TB | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 54 | 13 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 5.3% | 16.6% | 3.6% | 4.33 | 4.28 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TB | 54 | 0 | 56 | 238 | 52 | 13 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 5.5% | 16.3% | 3.7% | 4.35 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TB | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 51 | 12 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 5.3% | 16.6% | 3.6% | 4.33 | 4.28 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TB | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 50 | 12 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 5.5% | 16.3% | 3.7% | 4.35 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 197 | 4 | 271 | 1162 | 238 | 63 | 44 | 2% | 1.4 | 20.5% | 5.4% | 15.0% | 3.8% | 4.51 | 4.15 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 146 | 3 | 200 | 858 | 176 | 47 | 32 | 2% | 1.4 | 20.5% | 5.4% | 15.0% | 3.8% | 4.51 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 190 | 59 | 469 | 1974 | 431 | 135 | 76 | 31% | 2.5 | 21.8% | 6.8% | 15.0% | 3.8% | 4.09 | 4.22 | +6.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 81 | 25 | 200 | 842 | 184 | 58 | 32 | 31% | 2.5 | 21.8% | 6.8% | 15.0% | 3.8% | 4.09 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mason Englert (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.18 | 22.5% | 6.1% | 3.3% | — | 4.32 | 21.9% | 16.5% | 114 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2028 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 75 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.07 | 19.1% | 4.5% | 1.8% | .262 | 4.33 | 16.9% | 9.8% | 35 | +1.26 | 3.07 | 133 | 74 |
| Andrew Kittredge R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.22 | 23.1% | 6.6% | 2.2% | .353 | 2.97 | 25.6% | 19.7% | 255 | -0.25 | 2.47 | 667 | 74 |
| Jackson Rose R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.55 | 21.0% | 4.3% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.88 | 24.7% | 10.0% | 26 | +1.33 | 3.55 | 147 | 74 |
| Zac Grotz R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.33 | 24.8% | 6.0% | 2.8% | .300 | 5.29 | 12.1% | 3.9% | 10 | +1.96 | 2.89 | 183 | 72 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2028 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 72 |
| Kevin Herget R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.68 | 20.3% | 7.0% | 2.5% | .332 | 4.93 | 18.1% | 12.4% | 139 | +1.25 | 2.17 | 705 | 72 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 71 |
| Carlos Navas R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.08 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 3.4% | .271 | 6.98 | 19.3% | 10.0% | 44 | +2.90 | 2.94 | 385 | 71 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.41 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 368 | 71 |
| Stephen Perakslis R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.17 | 21.3% | 8.2% | 1.5% | .313 | 5.36 | 11.8% | 5.9% | 42 | +2.19 | 3.17 | 211 | 71 |
| Ryan Eades R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.21 | 22.4% | 7.4% | 1.9% | .352 | 4.50 | 23.9% | 15.3% | 64 | +1.29 | 3.21 | 451 | 71 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 71 |
| Jonathan Aro R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.79 | 25.3% | 6.9% | 3.6% | .252 | 3.60 | 14.6% | 8.1% | 108 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 323 | 71 |
| Jack Dallas R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 2.1% | .292 | 5.11 | 20.4% | 15.3% | 41 | +1.57 | 3.08 | 210 | 70 |
| Alex Colomé R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.37 | 19.3% | 5.9% | 2.1% | .309 | 2.98 | 25.5% | 19.3% | 191 | -0.39 | 2.72 | 530 | 70 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.63 | 23.7% | 8.7% | 4.4% | .317 | 3.95 | 22.5% | 14.7% | 87 | -0.68 | 3.36 | 432 | 70 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.65 | 20.5% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .319 | 4.96 | 18.4% | 6.6% | 242 | +0.31 | 4.39 | 353 | 70 |
| Jordan Lyles R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.90 | 17.7% | 6.9% | 4.4% | .340 | 4.53 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 286 | -0.37 | 3.38 | 1,080 | 70 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 51 | 22.0% | 5.6% | 1.38 | 4.34 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Eli Morgan ('24) | 4 | 66 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 1.46 | 3.97 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Nick Vincent ('20) | 6 | 45 | 22.7% | 6.3% | 1.13 | 3.71 |
| Erik Swanson ('24) | 5 | 51 | 26.2% | 6.5% | 1.57 | 3.70 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |