Garrett Whitlock

Garrett Whitlock P Boston Red Sox

Age 30 RHP 6'5" / 222 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 0.9 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7264vR 55

ERA2.63

FIP2.45

K%30.0%

BB%5.9%

K-BB%24.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD6565

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5795.0

Whiff%

p9031.6%

p9031.1%

xwOBA vs

p900.240

SL+2.5 (26%)

SI (56%)

FB (56%)

CH-0.6 (18%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.4M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.2M
Totals		$0.4M		$0.6M	+$0.2M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$28.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	CLUB OPT	$8.2M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	CLUB OPT	$10.5M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	Pulaski Yankees	5	3	14	59	22	0	1	60%	2.9	25.4%	0.0%	25.4%	2.4%	3.77	2.26	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	Pulaski Yankees	5	3	14	59	22	0	1	60%	2.9	37.3%	0.0%	37.3%	1.7%	3.77	0.94	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	21	121	490	122	41	3	91%	5.2	20.2%	8.9%	11.3%	0.8%	1.86	2.97	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	21	121	490	122	41	3	91%	5.2	24.9%	8.4%	16.5%	0.6%	1.86	2.42	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Trenton Thunder	14	14	70	297	57	18	4	100%	5.0	15.5%	6.7%	8.9%	1.7%	3.07	3.56	—
2019	23	AA RAW	Trenton Thunder	14	14	70	297	57	18	4	100%	5.0	19.2%	6.1%	13.1%	1.3%	3.07	2.99	—
2021	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	46	0	73	298	81	15	6	0%	1.6	27.2%	5.0%	22.1%	2.1%	1.96	2.58	+1.7
2021	25	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	46	0	73	298	81	15	6	0%	1.6	27.2%	5.0%	22.1%	2.0%	1.96	2.57	+1.8
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	9	82	330	86	15	10	27%	2.5	26.4%	4.8%	21.5%	3.3%	3.50	3.29	+1.2
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	9	82	330	86	15	10	27%	2.5	26.1%	4.5%	21.5%	3.0%	3.50	3.14	+1.4
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	15	93	386	97	16	15	56%	3.4	23.5%	4.0%	19.5%	3.9%	4.27	3.79	+1.2
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	15	93	386	97	16	15	56%	3.4	23.5%	4.0%	19.5%	3.9%	4.27	3.79	+1.2
2023	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	15	93	386	97	16	15	56%	3.4	25.1%	4.1%	21.0%	3.9%	4.27	3.63	+1.4
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	23	92	22	8	1	100%	4.6	22.7%	9.3%	13.3%	1.4%	1.57	3.12	+0.5
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	23	92	22	8	1	100%	4.6	22.7%	9.3%	13.3%	1.4%	1.57	3.12	+0.5
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	5	23	92	22	8	1	100%	4.6	23.9%	8.7%	15.2%	1.1%	1.57	2.80	+0.6
2025	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	62	0	72	293	91	22	2	0%	1.2	31.1%	7.5%	23.5%	0.7%	2.25	1.81	+2.4
2025	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	62	0	72	293	91	22	2	0%	1.2	31.1%	7.5%	23.5%	0.7%	2.25	1.81	+2.4
2025	29	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	62	0	72	293	91	22	2	0%	1.2	31.1%	7.5%	23.5%	0.7%	2.25	1.85	+2.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			215	23	363	1464	400	79	35	11%	1.7	27.3%	5.4%	21.9%	2.4%	2.95	2.80	+7.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	51	0	50	188	58	9	3	0%	1.0	31.1%	3.8%	27.3%	1.7%	1.80	1.88	+1.6
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	51	0	50	188	58	9	3	0%	1.0	31.1%	3.8%	27.3%	1.7%	1.80	1.88	+1.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AAA RAW	BOS	1	0	1	5	1	2	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	40.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.48	—
2026	30	MLB RAW	BOS	50	0	49	183	57	7	3	0%	1.0	31.1%	3.8%	27.3%	1.6%	1.84	1.85	+1.6
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	BOS	50	0	49	183	57	7	3	0%	1.0	31.1%	3.8%	27.3%	1.6%	1.84	1.85	+1.6
ROS	30	MLB MLE	BOS	5	0	5	21	6	1	0	0%	1.0	30.0%	5.9%	24.2%	2.1%	2.63	2.45	+0.1
ROS	30	MLB CTX	BOS	5	0	5	21	6	1	0	0%	1.0	30.0%	5.9%	24.2%	2.0%	2.60	2.42	+0.1
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	55	209	64	10	3	—	—	30.8%	4.9%	25.9%	1.6%	1.87	1.93	+1.9
FULL	30	MLB A+C	BOS	—	—	54	227	64	10	3	—	—	28.2%	4.5%	23.7%	1.5%	1.91	2.11	+1.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	BOS	51	0	54	227	66	14	5	0%	1.1	29.0%	6.3%	22.7%	2.2%	3.03	3.05	+1.0
2028	32	MLB MLE	BOS	47	0	50	210	59	14	5	0%	1.1	28.2%	6.7%	21.5%	2.5%	3.19	3.30	+0.8
2027	31	MLB CTX	BOS	51	0	54	228	66	14	5	0%	1.1	29.0%	6.3%	22.7%	2.2%	3.00	3.02	+1.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	BOS	48	0	50	211	60	14	5	0%	1.0	28.2%	6.7%	21.5%	2.4%	3.16	3.27	+0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		318	23	471	1922	531	109	45	7%	1.5	27.6%	5.7%	22.0%	2.4%	2.98	2.78	+10.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		135	10	200	816	225	46	19	7%	1.5	27.6%	5.7%	22.0%	2.4%	2.98	2.78	+4.3
Career	—	MLE		266	67	599	2433	589	148	49	25%	2.3	24.2%	6.1%	18.2%	2.0%	2.69	2.93	+9.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		89	22	200	813	197	49	16	25%	2.3	24.2%	6.1%	18.2%	2.0%	2.69	2.93	+4.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Garrett Whitlock (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.10	28.9%	7.1%	2.1%	—	3.17	28.6%	22.1%	104	+0.07	—	—	—
Brad Brach R 2016 · 2.69 FIP	30	SU	2.69	29.6%	7.7%	2.0%	.266	3.41	23.7%	13.8%	185	+0.72	2.69	410	77
Josh Lueke R 2015 · 2.29 FIP	30	SU	2.29	30.0%	4.1%	2.2%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	74
Mark Lowe R 2015 · 2.37 FIP	32	SU	2.37	28.4%	5.1%	1.9%	.302	5.22	19.2%	9.9%	98	+2.85	2.37	153	74
Josh Fields R 2016 · 2.41 FIP	30	SU	2.41	26.2%	5.9%	1.4%	.341	4.53	23.5%	16.5%	123	+2.12	1.90	238	73
John Brebbia R 2019 · 2.89 FIP	29	SU	2.89	28.6%	8.2%	2.1%	.285	3.34	22.8%	17.4%	102	+0.45	2.89	575	71
Deolis Guerra R 2019 · 2.53 FIP	30	SU	2.53	30.2%	6.2%	2.2%	.257	3.89	23.0%	15.6%	66	+1.36	2.53	364	70
Chris Hatcher R 2015 · 2.92 FIP	30	SU	2.92	27.1%	6.6%	2.3%	.292	4.67	22.6%	14.0%	137	+1.75	2.92	176	70
Jumbo Diaz R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	31	SU	3.16	25.2%	6.0%	2.6%	.286	3.65	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.49	2.80	284	70
Shawn Kelley R 2015 · 2.23 FIP	31	SU	2.23	30.7%	5.4%	1.9%	.291	4.09	29.3%	24.4%	133	+1.86	2.23	232	70
Matt Bush R 2016 · 2.87 FIP	30	SU	2.87	24.7%	6.0%	2.0%	.232	3.94	22.2%	12.7%	75	+1.07	2.87	249	69
Dellin Betances R 2018 · 1.97 FIP	30	SU	1.97	42.3%	8.8%	2.4%	.294	4.10	18.6%	-1.7%	12	+2.13	1.59	308	69
Shane Greene R 2019 · 3.50 FIP	30	SU	3.50	25.4%	6.3%	3.2%	.232	4.26	20.5%	9.9%	86	+0.76	2.86	484	68
Adam Ottavino R 2016 · 2.53 FIP	30	SU	2.53	32.7%	6.5%	2.5%	.242	3.05	31.7%	19.3%	197	+0.52	2.10	488	68
Pedro Strop R 2015 · 2.70 FIP	30	SU	2.70	30.0%	8.5%	1.9%	.211	2.90	26.9%	18.5%	167	+0.20	2.56	277	68
James Hoyt R 2017 · 3.19 FIP	30	SU	3.19	30.4%	7.5%	3.1%	.338	3.30	24.7%	15.1%	87	+0.11	1.61	312	67
Ryan Pressly R 2019 · 2.54 FIP	30	SU	2.54	34.1%	5.7%	2.9%	.256	2.10	33.5%	27.6%	133	-0.44	1.88	586	67
Pedro Báez R 2018 · 2.90 FIP	30	SU	2.90	26.2%	8.9%	1.6%	.280	3.37	23.7%	15.4%	87	+0.47	2.29	332	67
Mitch Lively R 2016 · 2.39 FIP	30	SU	2.39	23.7%	4.4%	1.3%	.281	3.47	17.0%	10.6%	75	+1.08	2.39	158	67
Kenley Jansen R 2018 · 3.77 FIP	30	SU	3.77	28.4%	5.5%	4.3%	.230	2.83	30.9%	22.0%	156	-0.94	0.89	681	66
Fernando Salas R 2015 · 2.71 FIP	30	SU	2.71	27.5%	2.6%	2.9%	.294	3.95	20.7%	14.7%	172	+1.24	2.71	288	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	28.7%	6.7%	0.87	3.17
Seunghwan Oh ('18)	1.0	69	27.7%	5.9%	1.00	2.78
Sean Doolittle ('21)	1.2	49	28.7%	6.2%	1.18	3.31
Richard Rodríguez ('21)	1.1	56	25.0%	6.3%	1.21	3.00
Felipe Vázquez ('19)	1.7	66	29.8%	7.5%	0.60	2.61
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12
Roberto Osuna ('19)	1.6	62	28.5%	4.5%	0.81	2.75