Garrett Whitlock

P Boston Red Sox

Age 31 RHP 6'5" / 222 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MIX2 levels	5	5	23	1.57	2.80	23.9%	8.7%	0.7	K 22.7% · BB 9.3% · FIP 3.12
2025	29	MLBBOS	62	0	72	2.25	1.85	31.1%	7.5%	2.4
2026	30	MIX2 levels	55	0	53	1.69	2.20	29.6%	5.4%	1.5	K 29.8% · BB 4.5% · FIP 2.01
2027PROJ	31	MLBBOS	55	0	58	2.86	2.84	30.0%	6.0%	1.3
2028PROJ	32	MLBBOS	50	0	53	2.97	3.06	29.2%	6.4%	1.0
2029PROJ	33	MLBBOS	44	0	46	3.18	3.33	28.3%	6.8%	0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.000First FA2028Options3

2027Ext / FA-deal$13M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%90

xwOBA vs90

FB Velo55

CompsAquilino López (age 30) · Jason Motte (age 30) · Akinori Otsuka (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7971vR 63

ERA2.86

FIP2.84

K%30.0%

BB%6.0%

K-BB%24.0%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD6565

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5594.9

Whiff%

p9031.5%

p9029.8%

xwOBA vs

p900.251

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2021

Service 6.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$13M	+1.3	$10M	-$3M
Totals		$13M		$10M	-$3M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$28.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	CLUB OPT	$8.2M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	CLUB OPT	$10.5M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	Pulaski Yankees	5	3	14	59	22	0	1	60%	2.9	25.4%	0.0%	25.4%	2.4%	3.77	2.26	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	Pulaski Yankees	5	3	14	59	22	0	1	60%	2.9	37.3%	0.0%	37.3%	1.7%	3.77	0.94	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	21	121	490	122	41	3	91%	5.2	20.2%	8.9%	11.3%	0.8%	1.86	2.97	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	21	121	490	122	41	3	91%	5.2	24.9%	8.4%	16.5%	0.6%	1.86	2.42	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Trenton Thunder	14	14	70	297	57	18	4	100%	5.0	15.5%	6.7%	8.9%	1.7%	3.07	3.56	—
2019	23	AA RAW	Trenton Thunder	14	14	70	297	57	18	4	100%	5.0	19.2%	6.1%	13.1%	1.3%	3.07	2.99	—
2021	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	46	0	73	298	81	15	6	0%	1.6	27.2%	5.0%	22.1%	2.1%	1.96	2.58	+1.7
2021	25	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	46	0	73	298	81	15	6	0%	1.6	27.2%	5.0%	22.1%	2.0%	1.96	2.57	+1.8
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	9	82	330	86	15	10	27%	2.5	26.4%	4.8%	21.5%	3.3%	3.50	3.29	+1.2
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	9	82	330	86	15	10	27%	2.5	26.1%	4.5%	21.5%	3.0%	3.50	3.14	+1.4
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	15	93	386	97	16	15	56%	3.4	23.7%	4.0%	19.6%	3.9%	4.27	3.78	+1.8
2023	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	15	93	386	97	16	15	56%	3.4	25.1%	4.1%	21.0%	3.9%	4.27	3.63	+2.0
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	23	92	22	8	1	100%	4.6	22.7%	9.3%	13.3%	1.4%	1.57	3.12	+0.6
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	23	92	22	8	1	100%	4.6	22.7%	9.3%	13.3%	1.4%	1.57	3.12	+0.6
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	5	23	92	22	8	1	100%	4.6	23.9%	8.7%	15.2%	1.1%	1.57	2.80	+0.7
2025	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	62	0	72	293	91	22	2	0%	1.2	31.1%	7.5%	23.5%	0.7%	2.25	1.81	+2.4
2025	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	62	0	72	293	91	22	2	0%	1.2	31.1%	7.5%	23.5%	0.7%	2.25	1.81	+2.4
2025	29	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	62	0	72	293	91	22	2	0%	1.2	31.1%	7.5%	23.5%	0.7%	2.25	1.85	+2.4
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	53	203	60	11	3	0%	1.0	29.8%	4.5%	25.3%	1.6%	1.69	2.01	+1.6
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	53	203	60	11	3	0%	1.0	29.8%	4.5%	25.3%	1.6%	1.69	2.01	+1.6
2026	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	53	203	60	11	3	0%	1.0	29.6%	5.4%	24.1%	1.5%	1.69	2.20	+1.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			219	23	366	1479	402	81	35	11%	1.7	27.2%	5.5%	21.7%	2.4%	2.93	2.81	+7.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	BOS	55	0	58	245	73	15	5	0%	1.1	30.0%	6.0%	24.0%	2.1%	2.86	2.84	+1.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	BOS	51	0	53	225	66	14	5	0%	1.0	29.2%	6.4%	22.8%	2.3%	3.00	3.09	+1.0
2029	33	MLB MLE	BOS	44	0	46	195	55	13	5	0%	1.1	28.3%	6.8%	21.5%	2.6%	3.22	3.37	+0.7
2028	32	MLB CTX	BOS	50	0	53	224	65	14	5	0%	1.1	29.2%	6.4%	22.8%	2.3%	2.97	3.06	+1.0
2029	33	MLB CTX	BOS	44	0	46	194	55	13	5	0%	1.0	28.3%	6.8%	21.5%	2.5%	3.18	3.33	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		314	23	466	1900	523	109	45	7%	1.5	27.5%	5.7%	21.8%	2.4%	2.96	2.80	+9.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		135	10	200	816	225	47	19	7%	1.5	27.5%	5.7%	21.8%	2.4%	2.96	2.80	+4.2
Career	—	MLE		270	67	602	2448	592	150	49	25%	2.2	24.2%	6.1%	18.1%	2.0%	2.68	2.94	+9.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		90	22	200	813	197	50	16	25%	2.2	24.2%	6.1%	18.1%	2.0%	2.68	2.94	+4.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 15 IPFIP 2.08 → 2.44 (+0.36)K% 27.4% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.42%	—	×0.860	23.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.23%	—	×0.900	2.90%
HR / BF /BF	1.61%	÷1.008	×1.100	1.76%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 2.08 → 2.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 6 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.20 (+1.10)K% 40.0% → 32.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.00%	—	×0.810	32.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.00%	—	×1.100	5.50%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷1.048	×1.200	5.72%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AATrenton Thunder · 70 IPFIP 2.99 → 3.56 (+0.57)K% 19.2% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.19%	—	×0.810	15.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.06%	—	×1.100	6.67%
HR / BF /BF	1.35%	÷0.960	×1.200	1.68%

Result: FIP 2.99 → 3.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Tampa Tarpons · 70 IPFIP 2.51 → 3.19 (+0.67)K% 25.1% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.08%	—	×0.770	19.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.15%	—	×1.150	10.53%
HR / BF /BF	0.68%	÷1.205	×1.250	0.70%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 141).

Result: FIP 2.51 → 3.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ACharleston RiverDogs · 40 IPFIP 1.56 → 2.54 (+0.98)K% 29.7% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.73%	—	×0.740	22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.73%	—	×1.180	5.58%
HR / BF /BF	0.68%	÷0.811	×1.300	1.08%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 62).

Result: FIP 1.56 → 2.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AATrenton Thunder · 11 IPFIP 4.27 → 4.59 (+0.33)K% 8.5% → 6.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	8.51%	—	×0.810	6.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.89%	—	×1.100	16.38%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.034	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 4.27 → 4.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ROKPulaski Yankees · 14 IPFIP 0.88 → 2.26 (+1.38)K% 37.3% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.29%	—	×0.680	25.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.69%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.37%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.88 → 2.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Garrett Whitlock (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.84	30.0%	6.0%	2.1%	—	3.22	28.8%	22.2%	100	+0.38	—	—	—
Aquilino López R 2005 · 3.10 FIP	30	SU	3.10	30.6%	8.3%	2.8%	.333	3.89	16.2%	10.5%	96	+0.79	3.10	207	73
Jason Motte R 2012 · 3.13 FIP	30	SU	3.13	30.8%	5.7%	3.5%	.238	4.34	16.2%	11.5%	73	+1.21	2.22	387	71
Akinori Otsuka R 2004 · 2.61 FIP	32	SU	2.61	27.9%	6.4%	1.9%	.251	2.78	20.3%	13.4%	155	+0.17	2.39	232	71
Kiko Calero R 2006 · 2.77 FIP	31	SU	2.77	27.8%	8.7%	1.7%	.309	2.92	24.0%	13.4%	101	+0.15	2.27	298	69
Brendan Donnelly R 2002 · 2.38 FIP	31	SU	2.38	27.1%	8.0%	1.0%	.236	3.06	25.1%	17.9%	181	+0.68	2.23	385	67
Jean Machi R 2013 · 2.16 FIP	31	SU	2.16	24.2%	4.3%	1.0%	.295	4.06	18.5%	11.5%	186	+1.90	2.16	306	67
Seunghwan Oh R 2016 · 1.87 FIP	34	SU	1.87	32.9%	4.8%	1.7%	.263	3.63	24.1%	19.6%	146	+1.76	1.87	226	67
Heath Bell R 2009 · 2.34 FIP	31	SU	2.34	28.4%	8.3%	1.1%	.295	2.82	23.7%	15.3%	196	+0.48	1.86	629	66
Shawn Kelley R 2015 · 2.23 FIP	31	SU	2.23	30.7%	5.4%	1.9%	.291	4.09	29.3%	24.4%	133	+1.86	2.23	452	66
Josh Fields R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	31	SU	3.98	26.9%	6.3%	4.3%	.216	5.01	20.5%	12.9%	66	+1.03	1.80	330	66
Jason Frasor R 2009 · 2.71 FIP	31	SU	2.71	24.7%	5.7%	1.8%	.253	3.47	23.9%	15.0%	167	+0.76	2.71	647	65
Rafael Martín R 2015 · 2.94 FIP	31	SU	2.94	30.5%	7.1%	2.8%	.285	3.99	20.4%	12.9%	112	+1.05	2.94	227	65
Andrew Kittredge R 2021 · 2.64 FIP	31	SU	2.64	27.3%	3.5%	2.5%	.255	3.98	20.9%	15.7%	116	+1.34	2.47	691	65
Jason Adam R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	31	SU	3.40	31.1%	9.0%	3.2%	.222	2.99	25.0%	17.7%	173	-0.41	2.42	396	65
Matt Miller R 2004 · 2.13 FIP	32	SU	2.13	24.3%	6.6%	0.4%	.265	3.47	19.2%	10.5%	45	+1.34	2.13	101	64
Jay Jackson R 2019 · 2.80 FIP	31	SU	2.80	32.4%	9.1%	2.3%	.272	3.59	29.4%	19.9%	41	+0.79	2.36	261	64
Tommy Nance R 2022 · 3.28 FIP	31	SU	3.28	29.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.345	2.75	23.4%	18.0%	118	-0.53	2.08	360	64
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	335	64
C.C. Lee R 2018 · 3.03 FIP	31	SU	3.03	34.7%	9.1%	3.1%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	149	64
Cristhian Martinez R 2012 · 3.09 FIP	30	SU	3.09	20.8%	4.8%	2.1%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	204	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	65	27.8%	5.9%	0.91	2.95
Sean Doolittle ('22)	2.3	56	29.0%	5.7%	0.96	3.20
Rafael Soriano ('15)	3.2	64	24.9%	7.7%	0.88	2.89
Jeff Montgomery ('87-'99, 19 WAR*)	4.3	72	26.2%*	7.6%*	1.01*	3.16*
Joe Sambito ('76-'87, 8 WAR*)	3.1	70	26.8%*	7.5%*	1.06*	3.65*
Luke Gregerson ('19)	3.1	69	24.7%	7.0%	0.79	3.15
Steve Hamilton ('61-'72, 10 WAR*)	3.3	66	25.2%*	7.7%*	0.92*	3.71*