Garrett Whitlock
P
Boston Red Sox
Age 30
RHP
6'5" / 222 lbs
MLB
Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 0.9 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 25 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8172vR 63
ERA2.83
FIP2.65
K%28.9%
BB%6.4%
K-BB%22.6%
ROS IP25
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5594.9
Whiff%
p7328.9%
K%
p8628.9%
xwOBA vs
p870.276
SL+2.5 (29%)
SI (54%)
FB (54%)
CH-0.6 (17%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | Pulaski Yankees | 5 | 3 | 14 | 59 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 60% | 2.9 | 25.4% | 0.0% | 25.4% | 2.4% | 3.77 | 2.26 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | Pulaski Yankees | 5 | 3 | 14 | 59 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 60% | 2.9 | 37.3% | 0.0% | 37.3% | 1.7% | 3.77 | 0.94 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 21 | 121 | 490 | 122 | 41 | 3 | 91% | 5.2 | 20.2% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 0.9% | 1.86 | 3.00 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 21 | 121 | 490 | 122 | 41 | 3 | 91% | 5.2 | 24.9% | 8.4% | 16.5% | 0.6% | 1.86 | 2.42 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Trenton Thunder | 14 | 14 | 70 | 297 | 57 | 18 | 4 | 100% | 5.0 | 15.5% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 1.8% | 3.07 | 3.60 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Trenton Thunder | 14 | 14 | 70 | 297 | 57 | 18 | 4 | 100% | 5.0 | 19.2% | 6.1% | 13.1% | 1.3% | 3.07 | 2.99 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 46 | 0 | 73 | 298 | 81 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.6 | 27.2% | 5.0% | 22.1% | 2.0% | 1.96 | 2.54 | +2.0 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 46 | 0 | 73 | 298 | 81 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.6 | 27.2% | 5.0% | 22.1% | 2.0% | 1.96 | 2.57 | +1.9 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 33 | 9 | 82 | 330 | 86 | 15 | 10 | 27% | 2.5 | 26.4% | 4.8% | 21.5% | 3.2% | 3.50 | 3.23 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 33 | 9 | 82 | 330 | 86 | 15 | 10 | 27% | 2.5 | 26.1% | 4.5% | 21.5% | 3.0% | 3.50 | 3.14 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 15 | 93 | 386 | 97 | 16 | 15 | 56% | 3.4 | 23.8% | 4.1% | 19.6% | 3.8% | 4.27 | 3.71 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 15 | 93 | 386 | 97 | 16 | 15 | 56% | 3.4 | 25.1% | 4.1% | 21.0% | 3.9% | 4.27 | 3.63 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 5 | 23 | 92 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 100% | 4.6 | 22.7% | 9.3% | 13.3% | 1.3% | 1.57 | 3.09 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 5 | 23 | 92 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 100% | 4.6 | 23.9% | 8.7% | 15.2% | 1.1% | 1.57 | 2.80 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 62 | 0 | 72 | 293 | 91 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 31.1% | 7.5% | 23.5% | 0.7% | 2.25 | 1.80 | +2.5 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 62 | 0 | 72 | 293 | 91 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 31.1% | 7.5% | 23.5% | 0.7% | 2.25 | 1.85 | +2.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 35 | 0 | 34 | 133 | 38 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.9% | 4.7% | 24.2% | 2.3% | 2.12 | 2.54 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 0 | 25 | 104 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.9% | 6.4% | 22.6% | 2.2% | 2.83 | 2.65 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.9% | 6.4% | 22.6% | 2.2% | 2.83 | 2.65 | +0.6 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 59 | 237 | 68 | 15 | 5 | — | — | 28.7% | 6.2% | 22.6% | 2.2% | 2.42 | 2.58 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 58 | 244 | 68 | 15 | 5 | — | — | 28.0% | 6.0% | 22.0% | 2.2% | 2.46 | 2.68 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 64 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.2% | 6.8% | 21.4% | 2.4% | 3.24 | 3.26 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 47 | 0 | 50 | 210 | 58 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.4% | 7.2% | 20.2% | 2.6% | 3.41 | 3.52 | +0.6 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 61 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.2% | 6.8% | 21.4% | 2.4% | 3.25 | 3.27 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 54 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.4% | 7.2% | 20.2% | 2.6% | 3.42 | 3.53 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 316 | 23 | 470 | 1929 | 526 | 114 | 48 | 7% | 1.5 | 27.3% | 5.9% | 21.4% | 2.5% | 3.09 | 2.90 | +13.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 135 | 10 | 200 | 821 | 224 | 49 | 20 | 7% | 1.5 | 27.3% | 5.9% | 21.4% | 2.5% | 3.09 | 2.90 | +5.8 | ||
| Career | — | 250 | 67 | 583 | 2378 | 570 | 147 | 48 | 27% | 2.3 | 24.0% | 6.2% | 17.8% | 2.0% | 2.73 | 2.97 | +16.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 86 | 23 | 200 | 816 | 196 | 50 | 17 | 27% | 2.3 | 24.0% | 6.2% | 17.8% | 2.0% | 2.73 | 2.97 | +5.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Garrett Whitlock (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.08 | 29.0% | 7.1% | 2.1% | — | 3.38 | 27.8% | 20.8% | 104 | +0.30 | — | — | — |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 2.73 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.73 | 29.6% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .266 | 3.43 | 23.7% | 13.8% | 185 | +0.70 | 2.73 | 410 | 73 |
| Mark Lowe R 2028 · 2.37 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.37 | 28.4% | 5.1% | 1.9% | .302 | 5.17 | 19.2% | 9.9% | 98 | +2.80 | 2.37 | 153 | 71 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2027 · 3.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.20 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.68 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.48 | 2.82 | 284 | 71 |
| Josh Fields R 2026 · 2.49 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.49 | 26.2% | 5.9% | 1.5% | .341 | 4.70 | 23.5% | 16.5% | 123 | +2.21 | 1.86 | 238 | 70 |
| Josh Lueke R 2026 · 2.50 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.50 | 30.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 70 |
| Matt Bush R 2026 · 2.86 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.86 | 24.7% | 6.0% | 2.0% | .232 | 3.96 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 75 | +1.10 | 2.86 | 249 | 70 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 27.1% | 6.6% | 2.5% | .292 | 4.66 | 22.6% | 14.0% | 137 | +1.61 | 3.05 | 176 | 70 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 68 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 68 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 2.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.64 | 30.0% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .211 | 2.84 | 26.9% | 18.5% | 167 | +0.20 | 2.48 | 277 | 68 |
| John Brebbia R 2025 · 2.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.81 | 28.6% | 8.2% | 2.0% | .285 | 3.36 | 22.8% | 17.4% | 102 | +0.55 | 2.81 | 574 | 67 |
| Shawn Kelley R 2027 · 2.34 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.34 | 30.7% | 5.4% | 2.1% | .291 | 4.06 | 29.3% | 24.4% | 133 | +1.72 | 2.34 | 232 | 67 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 67 |
| James Hoyt R 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.08 | 30.4% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .338 | 3.26 | 24.7% | 15.1% | 87 | +0.18 | 1.60 | 312 | 67 |
| Mitch Lively R 2026 · 2.51 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.51 | 23.7% | 4.4% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.49 | 17.0% | 10.6% | 75 | +0.98 | 2.51 | 158 | 66 |
| Radhames Liz R 2027 · 2.77 FIP | 31 | SW | 2.77 | 24.8% | 9.2% | 1.1% | .283 | 4.31 | 21.8% | 7.9% | 23 | +1.54 | 2.77 | 110 | 66 |
| Deolis Guerra R 2026 · 2.56 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.56 | 30.2% | 6.2% | 2.2% | .257 | 3.80 | 23.0% | 15.6% | 66 | +1.24 | 2.56 | 364 | 66 |
| Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 66 |
| Rafael Martín R 2027 · 2.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.85 | 30.5% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.03 | 20.4% | 12.9% | 112 | +1.18 | 2.85 | 227 | 66 |
| Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 2.35 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.35 | 32.7% | 6.5% | 2.1% | .242 | 2.94 | 31.7% | 19.3% | 197 | +0.59 | 1.99 | 488 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 54 | 28.2% | 7.0% | 0.91 | 3.30 |
| Seunghwan Oh ('18) | 3 | 69 | 27.7% | 5.9% | 1.00 | 2.78 |
| Evan Phillips ('24) | 4 | 52 | 29.5% | 7.8% | 0.70 | 2.78 |
| Joe Blanton ('17) | 3 | 67 | 24.2% | 6.7% | 1.08 | 3.32 |
| Sean Doolittle ('21) | 5 | 49 | 28.7% | 6.2% | 1.18 | 3.31 |
| Pedro Báez ('19) | 5 | 63 | 26.1% | 8.3% | 0.97 | 3.06 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |