Garrett Whitlock

Garrett Whitlock P Boston Red Sox

+1.1 WAR

Age 30 RHP 6'5" / 222 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.0 · 2026

ERA3.32

FIP3.18

xFIP3.06

SIERA3.17

K%27.9%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%20.2%

IP54

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.0peak

2026

K†6565

FB Velo

p6895.8

Whiff%

p9032.8%

p9031.1%

xwOBA vs

p900.262

SL+2.5 (34%)

SI (47%)

FB (47%)

CH-0.6 (19%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2017	21	ROK	Pulaski Yankees	5	3	14	59	22	0	1	25.4%	0.0%	2.4%	3.77	2.26	+0.4
2018	22	AA	Trenton Thunder	23	21	121	490	122	41	3	20.2%	8.9%	0.8%	1.86	2.97	+3.2
2019	23	AA	Trenton Thunder	14	14	70	297	57	18	4	15.5%	6.7%	1.7%	3.07	3.56	+1.2
2021	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	46	0	73	298	81	15	6	27.2%	5.0%	2.1%	1.96	2.57	+2.1
2022	26	MLB	Boston Red Sox	33	9	82	330	86	15	10	26.4%	4.8%	3.2%	3.50	3.22	+1.8
2023	27	MLB	Boston Red Sox	27	15	93	386	97	16	15	23.8%	4.1%	4.2%	4.27	3.93	+1.4
2024	28	MLB	Boston Red Sox	5	5	23	92	22	8	1	22.7%	9.3%	1.4%	1.57	3.14	+0.5
2025	29	MLB	Boston Red Sox	62	0	72	293	91	22	2	31.1%	7.5%	0.7%	2.25	1.79	+2.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	Boston Red Sox	7	0	7	31	11	5	1	—	—	—	2.57	—	—
ROS	30	MLB	BOS	47	—	47	199	56	15	4	28.0%	7.7%	2.1%	3.27	3.27	+0.9
2026 Total	30	MLB	BOS	—	—	54	230	67	20	5	29.0%	8.8%	2.3%	3.18	2.85	+1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	31	MLB	BOS	52	—	52	221	63	19	5	28.4%	8.5%	2.3%	3.36	3.41	+0.9
2028	32	MLB	BOS	50	—	50	212	59	18	5	27.8%	8.6%	2.4%	3.46	3.52	+0.8
2029	33	MLB	BOS	48	—	48	202	55	18	5	27.1%	8.8%	2.5%	3.57	3.65	+0.7
2030	34	MLB	BOS	46	—	46	192	51	17	5	26.4%	9.0%	2.5%	3.70	3.79	+0.6
2031	35	MLB	BOS	43	—	43	181	47	17	5	25.7%	9.2%	2.7%	3.84	3.94	+0.5
2032	36	MLB	BOS	40	—	40	169	42	16	5	24.9%	9.5%	2.8%	4.00	4.10	+0.4
2033	37	MLB	BOS	37	—	37	157	38	15	5	24.1%	9.8%	2.9%	4.17	4.28	+0.3
2034	38	MLB	BOS	34	—	34	144	34	15	4	23.3%	10.1%	3.0%	4.35	4.46	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			222	67	556	2276	543	146	48	23.8%	6.4%	2.1%	2.77	3.04	+14.2
/ 200 IP	—			80	24	200	819	195	53	17	23.8%	6.4%	2.1%	2.77	3.04	+5.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Garrett Whitlock (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.27	28.0%	7.7%	2.1%	—	3.52	27.8%	19.2%	150	+0.25	—	—	—
Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	81
Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.33 FIP	32	SW	3.33	23.7%	7.2%	2.4%	.342	4.98	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.65	3.33	122	80
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2027 · 3.38 FIP	31	SW	3.38	26.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.241	3.98	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.60	3.38	212	79
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2027 · 3.11 FIP	31	SW	3.11	22.5%	9.7%	1.2%	.298	5.81	13.8%	4.1%	86	+2.70	3.11	148	78
Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.48 FIP	31	SW	3.48	23.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.57	2.00	380	78
Gregory Infante R 2026 · 2.97 FIP	30	SW	2.97	22.8%	8.2%	1.4%	.251	4.16	22.0%	17.4%	50	+1.19	2.97	230	77
Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP	31	SW	3.85	25.1%	10.8%	2.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	102	77
Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP	31	SW	3.46	20.7%	9.1%	1.7%	.241	5.68	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.22	3.46	160	76
Matt Bush R 2026 · 2.88 FIP	30	SW	2.88	24.7%	6.0%	2.0%	.232	3.96	22.2%	12.7%	75	+1.08	2.88	249	76
Jumbo Diaz R 2027 · 3.21 FIP	31	SW	3.21	25.2%	6.0%	2.7%	.286	3.66	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.45	2.80	284	76
Tony Barnette R 2028 · 3.05 FIP	32	SW	3.05	19.9%	6.1%	1.6%	.281	3.28	23.4%	17.0%	84	+0.23	2.56	144	76
Brad Brach R 2026 · 2.80 FIP	30	SW	2.80	29.6%	7.7%	2.2%	.266	3.43	23.7%	13.8%	185	+0.63	2.80	410	75
Jeff Manship R 2026 · 2.82 FIP	30	SW	2.82	22.2%	6.8%	1.4%	.222	4.63	19.0%	8.4%	43	+1.81	2.82	114	75
Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	30	SW	3.79	24.5%	10.6%	2.6%	.307	3.35	25.3%	16.0%	74	-0.44	2.91	210	75
Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.56 FIP	30	SW	3.56	23.3%	8.5%	2.5%	.288	4.73	20.6%	9.9%	86	+1.17	2.72	392	74
Pedro Báez R 2026 · 2.89 FIP	30	SW	2.89	26.2%	8.9%	1.6%	.280	3.33	23.7%	15.4%	87	+0.44	2.29	332	74
Chad Gaudin R 2029 · 2.66 FIP	33	SU	2.66	22.8%	6.8%	1.1%	.325	3.16	21.8%	13.9%	58	+0.50	2.02	102	74
Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	30	SW	4.06	24.4%	11.8%	2.8%	.301	3.94	24.1%	15.2%	140	-0.12	1.69	468	74
Ryan Tepera R 2026 · 3.84 FIP	30	SW	3.84	25.9%	8.7%	3.3%	.282	3.13	28.4%	19.9%	104	-0.71	2.27	445	74
Josh Fields R 2026 · 2.48 FIP	30	SW	2.48	26.2%	5.9%	1.5%	.341	4.62	23.5%	16.5%	123	+2.14	1.85	238	74

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-3	$8M	+1.0	$8M	+$0.5M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+0.9	$4M	-$5M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$10M	+0.8	$3M	-$7M
Totals		$26M		$15M	-$11M