Andrew Kittredge

P Baltimore Orioles

Age 37 RHP 6'1" / 235 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	34	MLBSTL	74	71	2.80	3.81	23.3%	6.3%	0.6
2025	35	MIX3 levels	60	59	3.20	2.88	29.9%	5.1%	1.2	K 30.8% · BB 4.8% · FIP 3.03
2026	36	MIX2 levels	61	54	4.70	3.57	19.5%	4.1%	0.6	K 18.7% · BB 4.2% · FIP 3.53
2027PROJ	37	MLBBAL	39	41	3.75	3.83	23.0%	4.9%	0.4
2028PROJ	38	MLBBAL	23	24	4.06	4.27	21.8%	5.6%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.4 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs54

FB Velo45

K%25

Form3.63 ERA (proj 3.75) · K 15.6% (proj 23.0%) · BB 2.6% (proj 4.9%) ▼ last 90d · 17 IP through Oct 27

CompsChris Nichting (age 36) · Matt Bush (age 37) · Juan Sandoval (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10597vR 89

ERA3.75

FIP3.83

K%23.0%

BB%4.9%

K-BB%18.1%

Proj IP41

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p3523.1%

p2518.6%

xwOBA vs

p540.308

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	3	75	322	60	29	6	8%	2.1	15.7%	9.6%	6.1%	1.9%	4.32	4.05	—
2015	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	3	75	322	60	29	6	8%	2.1	18.6%	9.0%	9.6%	1.9%	4.32	3.70	—
2016	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	5	72	309	84	19	5	14%	1.9	23.1%	6.6%	16.5%	2.0%	3.50	3.08	—
2016	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	5	72	309	84	19	5	14%	1.9	27.2%	6.1%	21.0%	1.6%	3.50	2.46	—
2017	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	2	84	331	92	20	4	4%	1.5	25.0%	6.3%	18.7%	1.3%	1.51	2.47	+2.1
2017	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	2	84	331	92	20	4	4%	1.5	27.8%	6.0%	21.8%	1.2%	1.51	2.24	+2.3
2018	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	4	84	375	88	24	10	7%	1.6	21.6%	6.6%	15.1%	2.8%	5.02	3.66	+0.9
2018	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	4	84	375	88	24	10	7%	1.6	23.5%	6.4%	17.1%	2.7%	5.02	3.41	+1.1
2019	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	64	8	87	352	113	17	10	12%	1.4	30.2%	4.9%	25.3%	2.9%	3.21	2.75	+1.9
2019	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	64	8	87	352	113	17	10	12%	1.4	32.1%	4.8%	27.3%	2.8%	3.21	2.58	+2.1
2020	30	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	8	1	8	31	3	2	0	12%	1.0	9.7%	6.5%	3.2%	0.0%	2.25	3.10	+0.1
2020	30	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	8	1	8	31	3	2	0	12%	1.0	9.7%	6.5%	3.2%	0.0%	2.25	3.10	+0.1
2021	31	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	57	4	72	282	77	10	7	7%	1.3	27.3%	3.5%	23.8%	2.6%	1.88	2.64	+1.6
2021	31	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	57	4	72	282	77	10	7	7%	1.3	27.3%	3.5%	23.8%	2.5%	1.88	2.64	+1.6
2022	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	21	79	15	2	4	0%	1.2	18.7%	2.7%	16.0%	5.5%	3.00	4.87	-0.1
2022	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	21	79	15	2	4	0%	1.2	19.0%	2.5%	16.5%	5.1%	3.00	4.43	+0.0
2023	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	0	28	121	25	5	2	0%	1.0	16.0%	4.2%	11.7%	1.8%	3.86	3.27	+0.4
2023	33	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	0	28	121	25	5	2	0%	1.0	20.7%	4.1%	16.5%	1.7%	3.86	2.78	+0.6
2024	34	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	74	0	71	287	67	18	10	0%	1.0	23.3%	6.3%	17.1%	3.7%	2.80	3.98	+0.5
2024	34	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	74	0	71	287	67	18	10	0%	1.0	23.3%	6.3%	17.1%	3.7%	2.80	3.98	+0.5
2024	34	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	74	0	71	287	67	18	10	0%	1.0	23.3%	6.3%	17.1%	3.5%	2.80	3.81	+0.6
2025	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	60	0	59	234	70	12	7	0%	1.0	30.8%	4.8%	26.0%	3.5%	3.20	3.03	+1.1
2025	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	60	0	59	234	70	12	7	0%	1.0	30.8%	4.8%	26.0%	3.5%	3.20	3.03	+1.1
2025	35	MIX RAW	3 levels	60	0	59	234	70	12	7	0%	1.0	29.9%	5.1%	24.8%	3.0%	3.20	2.88	+1.2
2026	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	54	246	48	10	7	0%	0.9	18.7%	4.2%	14.5%	2.7%	4.70	3.53	+0.7
2026	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	54	246	48	10	7	0%	0.9	18.7%	4.2%	14.5%	2.7%	4.70	3.53	+0.7
2026	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	0	54	246	48	10	7	0%	0.9	19.5%	4.1%	15.4%	2.8%	4.70	3.57	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			364	15	387	1604	377	82	51	4%	1.1	23.5%	5.1%	18.4%	3.2%	3.44	3.50	+4.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	37	MLB	BAL	39	0	41	173	40	8	5	0%	1.1	23.0%	4.9%	18.1%	3.0%	3.75	3.83	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	38	MLB MLE	BAL	23	0	24	103	22	6	4	0%	1.1	21.8%	5.6%	16.2%	3.5%	4.06	4.27	+0.1
2028	38	MLB CTX	BAL	23	0	24	101	22	6	4	0%	1.0	21.8%	5.6%	16.2%	3.5%	4.06	4.27	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		387	15	411	1707	399	88	55	4%	1.1	23.4%	5.1%	18.3%	3.2%	3.48	3.53	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	7	200	831	194	43	27	4%	1.1	23.4%	5.1%	18.3%	3.2%	3.48	3.53	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		554	27	714	2969	691	173	76	5%	1.3	23.3%	5.8%	17.5%	2.6%	3.32	3.29	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		155	8	200	832	194	48	21	5%	1.3	23.3%	5.8%	17.5%	2.6%	3.32	3.29	+2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 5 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.53 (+0.43)K% 25.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.860	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.12%	—	×0.900	2.81%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.44%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 5 IPFIP 2.70 → 2.80 (+0.10)K% 19.0% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.05%	—	×0.860	16.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×0.900	8.57%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.945	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.70 → 2.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAADurham Bulls · 13 IPFIP 3.38 → 3.46 (+0.08)K% 14.8% → 12.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.75%	—	×0.860	12.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.92%	—	×0.900	4.43%
HR / BF /BF	1.64%	÷1.137	×1.100	1.59%

Result: FIP 3.38 → 3.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAADurham Bulls · 37 IPFIP 1.43 → 1.82 (+0.39)K% 38.7% → 34.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.73%	—	×0.880	34.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.52%	—	×1.050	3.70%
HR / BF /BF	2.11%	÷1.128	×1.100	2.06%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 126).

Result: FIP 1.43 → 1.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAADurham Bulls · 46 IPFIP 2.21 → 2.66 (+0.46)K% 29.9% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.90%	—	×0.880	26.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.19%	—	×1.050	6.49%
HR / BF /BF	1.55%	÷0.970	×1.100	1.75%

Result: FIP 2.21 → 2.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAADurham Bulls · 68 IPFIP 1.75 → 2.10 (+0.35)K% 29.4% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.43%	—	×0.880	25.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.66%	—	×1.050	5.94%
HR / BF /BF	0.75%	÷1.049	×1.100	0.79%

Result: FIP 1.75 → 2.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAATacoma Rainiers · 38 IPFIP 3.05 → 3.76 (+0.71)K% 29.0% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.01%	—	×0.880	25.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.56%	—	×1.050	5.83%
HR / BF /BF	3.09%	÷0.896	×1.100	3.79%

Result: FIP 3.05 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAJackson Generals · 34 IPFIP 1.84 → 2.33 (+0.49)K% 25.2% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.17%	—	×0.810	20.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.80%	—	×1.100	7.48%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.992	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 1.84 → 2.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Kittredge (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.27	21.8%	16.2%	24	+0.44	—	—	—
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	68
Matt Bush R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	37	SU	3.79	26.2%	8.7%	3.3%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	66
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	60
Pete Walker R 2006 · 4.45 FIP	37	SU	4.45	19.6%	8.0%	3.6%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	327	59
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	59
Scott Atchison R 2013 · 3.80 FIP	37	SU	3.80	14.4%	6.2%	2.1%	.273	3.60	16.7%	12.9%	92	-0.20	2.52	340	58
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2016 · 2.99 FIP	37	SU	2.99	16.4%	6.5%	0.8%	.333	3.51	13.3%	10.8%	35	+0.52	2.99	119	57
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	57
Roy Corcoran R 2015 · 2.87 FIP	35	SU	2.87	17.7%	8.2%	0.4%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	129	53
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	52
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	49
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	47
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	46
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	45
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	45
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	38
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	33
Heriberto Ruelas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	35	SU	3.42	17.2%	6.7%	1.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	117	32
Brian Shouse L 2006 · 4.19 FIP	37	SU	4.19	13.2%	7.5%	2.3%	.269	3.37	15.3%	11.0%	127	-0.82	2.32	339	27
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	26

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	50	23.4%	6.0%	1.23	3.51
Addison Reed ('18)	2.3	66	24.5%	6.2%	1.04	3.53
Héctor Rondón ('20)	2.2	54	24.2%	7.4%	1.03	3.49
Nick Vincent ('21)	2.1	46	24.1%	6.2%	0.94	3.30
Joe Hoerner ('63-'77, 8 WAR*)	2.8	51	23.2%*	7.9%*	1.21*	3.52*
Bob Patterson ('85-'98, 4 WAR*)	3.1	51	23.0%*	6.7%*	1.32*	4.33*
Tom Niedenfuer ('81-'90, 8 WAR*)	3.3	65	23.1%*	8.1%*	1.19*	3.80*