Ben Lively
P
Cleveland Guardians
+0.1
WAR
Age 34
RHP
6'4" / 235 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.54
FIP4.74
xFIP5.26
SIERA5.30
K%18.8%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%10.7%
IP80
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†4040
FB Velo
p1089.8
Whiff%
p1016.2%
K%
p1016.3%
xwOBA vs
p330.332
SL+4.0 (17%)
FB+2.7 (58%)
CH+0.9 (8%)
SI (29%)
CU (7%)
CT (10%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 25 | 25 | 144 | 612 | 111 | 45 | 14 | 14.7% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 4.13 | 4.37 | +1.5 |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 28 | 28 | 171 | 666 | 139 | 42 | 11 | 17.9% | 6.7% | 1.9% | 2.69 | 3.49 | +3.5 |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 31 | 31 | 186 | 777 | 134 | 45 | 16 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 1.8% | 3.68 | 3.46 | +3.9 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 24 | 14 | 86 | 360 | 80 | 30 | 7 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 2.3% | 3.44 | 3.76 | +1.4 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 25 | 10 | 73 | 327 | 77 | 29 | 15 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 4.5% | 4.79 | 5.03 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 30 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 18 | 18 | 77 | 333 | 79 | 28 | 6 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 1.6% | 4.09 | 3.36 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 26 | 18 | 121 | 517 | 101 | 37 | 25 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 5.19 | 4.83 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 32 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 31 | 31 | 159 | 661 | 122 | 49 | 24 | 18.7% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 3.78 | 4.35 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 33 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 9 | 9 | 45 | 178 | 29 | 15 | 6 | 16.3% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 3.22 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 14 | 14 | 75 | 315 | 50 | 26 | 10 | 16.0% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.98 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 42 | 23 | 9 | 15.3% | 8.3% | 3.4% | 4.90 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | PHI | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 35 | 21 | 9 | 14.5% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 5.14 | 5.30 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 217 | 184 | 1062 | 4431 | 792 | 336 | 122 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 3.84 | 4.06 | +14.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 35 | 200 | 834 | 149 | 63 | 23 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 3.84 | 4.06 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ben Lively (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.98 | 16.0% | 8.1% | 3.3% | — | 5.21 | 14.9% | 6.5% | 122 | +0.23 | — | — | — |
| George Kontos R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.02 | 15.4% | 9.0% | 3.8% | .356 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 290 | 65 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.51 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .304 | 3.66 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 113 | -0.85 | 2.89 | 326 | 64 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.39 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 3.6% | .282 | 4.11 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 67 | -0.28 | 4.11 | 186 | 64 |
| Manny Acosta R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 64 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.82 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .294 | 3.34 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.48 | 3.21 | 225 | 63 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.63 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .269 | 5.47 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.84 | 4.63 | 172 | 62 |
| Oscar Villarreal R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.90 | 14.4% | 7.8% | 1.9% | .325 | 5.35 | 8.7% | 0.1% | 13 | +1.45 | 2.53 | 135 | 62 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2028 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 62 |
| Hector Navarro R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 62 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 61 |
| Tim Adleman R 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.70 | 17.5% | 8.6% | 5.5% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 605 | 61 |
| Fernando Villalobos R 2024 · 4.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.70 | 10.6% | 8.0% | 2.7% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.03 | 152 | 61 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.06 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 4.5% | .318 | 4.34 | 12.6% | 5.9% | 104 | -0.72 | 3.77 | 264 | 61 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.50 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .347 | 3.82 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.68 | 3.32 | 119 | 60 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.09 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 132 | 60 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2028 · 4.85 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.85 | 9.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | .282 | 4.54 | 11.8% | 5.3% | 103 | -0.31 | 4.54 | 156 | 60 |
| Johnny Cueto R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.15 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .280 | 4.71 | 17.3% | 11.8% | 364 | +0.56 | 2.87 | 1,148 | 60 |
| Kameron Loe R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.88 | 11.9% | 5.3% | 2.0% | .356 | 3.36 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 133 | -0.52 | 3.36 | 201 | 60 |
| Doug Fister R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.68 | 13.8% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 455 | 60 |
| Fernando Salas R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.19 | 20.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 288 | 59 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.