Ben Lively

P Columbus Clippers

Age 35 RHP 6'4" / 235 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAASP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	32	MIX2 levels	31	31	159	3.78	4.45	18.5%	7.4%	1.8	K 18.7% · BB 7.8% · FIP 4.51
2025	33	MLBCLE	9	9	45	3.22	4.56	16.3%	8.4%	0.4
2026	34	MIX2 levels	11	11	40	5.62	4.90	14.8%	8.8%	—	K 12.4% · BB 8.6% · FIP 5.36
2027PROJ	35	MLBCLE	1	1	7	4.50	4.95	15.0%	8.2%	0.0
2028PROJ	36	MLBCLE	6	6	35	4.99	5.32	13.9%	8.8%	0.0
2029PROJ	37	MLBCLE	3	3	16	5.43	5.72	12.8%	9.4%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

xwOBA vs33

FB Velo10

K%10

CompsKenshin Kawakami (age 35) · Leo Medrano (age 33) · Jesse Estrada (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.50

FIP4.95

K%15.0%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%6.8%

Proj IP73

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.8

Whiff%

p1016.2%

p1016.3%

xwOBA vs

p330.332

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	23	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	25	25	144	612	111	45	14	100%	5.7	14.7%	8.1%	6.6%	2.7%	4.13	4.36	—
2015	23	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	25	25	144	612	111	45	14	100%	5.7	18.1%	7.4%	10.8%	2.3%	4.13	3.76	—
2016	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	171	666	139	42	11	100%	6.1	17.9%	6.7%	11.1%	1.9%	2.69	3.49	—
2016	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	171	666	139	42	11	100%	6.1	20.9%	6.3%	14.6%	1.7%	2.69	3.05	—
2017	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	186	777	134	45	16	100%	6.0	16.0%	5.9%	10.0%	2.0%	3.68	3.58	+4.1
2017	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	186	777	134	45	16	100%	6.0	17.2%	5.8%	11.5%	2.1%	3.68	3.50	+4.3
2018	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	14	86	360	80	30	7	58%	3.6	19.7%	8.6%	11.1%	2.2%	3.44	3.75	+1.7
2018	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	14	86	360	80	30	7	58%	3.6	22.2%	8.3%	13.9%	1.9%	3.44	3.34	+2.2
2019	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	10	73	327	77	29	15	40%	2.9	20.8%	9.5%	11.3%	4.5%	4.79	4.99	-0.4
2019	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	10	73	327	77	29	15	40%	2.9	23.5%	8.9%	14.7%	4.6%	4.79	4.85	-0.3
2022	30	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	18	18	77	333	79	28	6	100%	4.3	20.9%	8.8%	12.0%	1.5%	4.09	3.30	—
2022	30	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	18	18	77	333	79	28	6	100%	4.3	23.7%	8.4%	15.3%	1.8%	4.09	3.15	—
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	18	121	517	101	37	25	69%	4.7	18.9%	6.9%	12.0%	4.6%	5.19	4.90	+0.7
2023	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	18	121	517	101	37	25	69%	4.7	19.5%	7.2%	12.4%	4.8%	5.19	5.03	+0.5
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	159	661	122	49	24	100%	5.1	18.7%	7.8%	10.9%	3.6%	3.78	4.51	+1.7
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	159	661	122	49	24	100%	5.1	18.7%	7.8%	10.9%	3.6%	3.78	4.51	+1.7
2024	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	159	661	122	49	24	100%	5.1	18.5%	7.4%	11.0%	3.6%	3.78	4.45	+1.8
2025	33	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	9	9	45	178	29	15	6	100%	5.0	16.3%	8.4%	7.9%	3.4%	3.22	4.65	+0.4
2025	33	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	9	9	45	178	29	15	6	100%	5.0	16.3%	8.4%	7.9%	3.4%	3.22	4.65	+0.4
2025	33	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	9	9	45	178	29	15	6	100%	5.0	16.3%	8.4%	7.9%	3.4%	3.22	4.56	+0.4
2026	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	40	182	27	16	6	100%	3.6	12.4%	8.6%	3.8%	4.0%	5.62	5.36	—
2026	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	40	182	27	16	6	100%	3.6	12.4%	8.6%	3.8%	4.0%	5.62	5.36	—
2026	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	11	40	182	27	16	6	100%	3.6	14.8%	8.8%	6.0%	3.3%	5.62	4.90	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			83	70	404	1716	306	126	67	84%	4.9	17.8%	7.3%	10.5%	3.9%	4.38	4.68	+3.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	35	MLB	CLE	1	1	7	30	4	2	1	100%	7.0	15.0%	8.2%	6.8%	3.1%	4.50	4.95	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	CLE	6	6	35	149	21	13	5	100%	5.9	13.9%	8.8%	5.2%	3.5%	4.99	5.32	+0.0
2029	37	MLB MLE	CLE	3	3	16	67	9	6	3	100%	5.3	12.8%	9.4%	3.4%	3.9%	5.43	5.72	-0.1
2028	36	MLB CTX	CLE	6	6	35	148	21	13	5	100%	5.8	13.9%	8.8%	5.2%	3.5%	4.99	5.32	+0.0
2029	37	MLB CTX	CLE	3	3	16	68	9	6	3	100%	5.3	12.8%	9.4%	3.4%	3.9%	5.43	5.72	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		92	79	455	1932	335	145	75	86%	5.0	17.4%	7.5%	9.8%	3.9%	4.47	4.71	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	34	200	848	147	64	33	86%	5.0	17.4%	7.5%	9.8%	3.9%	4.47	4.71	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		228	195	1102	4613	814	349	133	86%	4.8	17.7%	7.6%	10.1%	2.9%	3.90	4.16	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	35	200	837	148	63	24	86%	4.8	17.7%	7.6%	10.1%	2.9%	3.90	4.16	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAColumbus Clippers · 32 IPFIP 3.29 → 3.41 (+0.12)K% 15.3% → 13.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.27%	—	×0.860	13.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.40%	—	×0.900	7.56%
HR / BF /BF	0.76%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.84%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.29 → 3.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Lake County Captains · 8 IPFIP 8.56 → 10.36 (+1.80)K% 13.7% → 10.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.73%	—	×0.770	10.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.80%	—	×1.150	11.27%
HR / BF /BF	9.80%	÷1.000	×1.250	12.25%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 8.56 → 10.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAColumbus Clippers · 8 IPFIP 3.83 → 4.06 (+0.23)K% 13.8% → 11.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.79%	—	×0.860	11.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×0.900	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.45%	÷1.060	×1.100	3.58%

Result: FIP 3.83 → 4.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALouisville Bats · 33 IPFIP 4.90 → 5.07 (+0.17)K% 16.4% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.42%	—	×0.860	14.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.96%	—	×0.900	8.06%
HR / BF /BF	3.73%	÷1.054	×1.100	3.90%

Result: FIP 4.90 → 5.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALouisville Bats · 77 IPFIP 3.15 → 3.30 (+0.15)K% 23.7% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.72%	—	×0.880	20.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.41%	—	×1.050	8.83%
HR / BF /BF	1.80%	÷1.282	×1.100	1.55%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 156).

Result: FIP 3.15 → 3.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAReno Aces · 72 IPFIP 4.64 → 4.99 (+0.35)K% 23.7% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.68%	—	×0.880	20.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.03%	—	×1.050	9.49%
HR / BF /BF	4.36%	÷1.077	×1.100	4.45%

Result: FIP 4.64 → 4.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 52 IPFIP 2.89 → 3.30 (+0.41)K% 23.3% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.27%	—	×0.880	20.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.43%	—	×1.050	7.80%
HR / BF /BF	1.49%	÷0.954	×1.100	1.71%

Result: FIP 2.89 → 3.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 97 IPFIP 2.48 → 2.75 (+0.26)K% 20.2% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.25%	—	×0.880	17.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.43%	—	×1.050	5.70%
HR / BF /BF	0.74%	÷1.043	×1.100	0.78%

Result: FIP 2.48 → 2.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ben Lively (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	5.44	13.6%	4.6%	51	+0.49	—	—	—
Kenshin Kawakami R 2010 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	15.1%	5.6%	2.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	244	69
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	66
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	66
Steve Sparks R 2000 · 3.78 FIP	35	SP-	3.78	11.9%	6.5%	1.6%	.283	4.37	11.6%	4.7%	528	+0.59	3.78	1,320	64
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	62
Jonathan Castellanos R 2017 · 4.91 FIP	35	SP	4.91	8.4%	9.2%	2.5%	.314	5.24	11.0%	2.0%	67	+0.33	3.40	394	61
Juan Delgadillo R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	34	SP	4.47	10.9%	6.2%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	143	61
Michael Nix R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	33	SP	4.60	11.9%	11.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	234	60
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	60
Jon Leicester R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	36	SP	3.76	12.3%	5.9%	1.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	59
Frankie De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP-	4.38	16.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	262	59
Jose Oyervides R 2017 · 5.38 FIP	35	SP	5.38	18.0%	6.3%	5.5%	.254	5.66	16.3%	5.1%	115	+0.28	3.01	407	59
David Buchanan R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	35	SP-	4.26	14.7%	6.5%	2.9%	.337	5.56	12.2%	4.1%	29	+1.30	3.88	560	58
Salvador Valdez R 2017 · 3.87 FIP	34	SP	3.87	9.4%	6.1%	1.4%	.328	4.30	17.1%	8.9%	38	+0.43	3.60	326	58
Walter Silva R 2009 · 5.72 FIP	32	SP	5.72	9.1%	12.4%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	453	58
Logan Duran R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	15.3%	8.9%	1.5%	.299	3.66	15.5%	6.6%	29	-0.11	3.42	187	57
Masato Yoshii R 2000 · 5.32 FIP	35	SP	5.32	12.1%	6.5%	4.4%	.302	4.38	13.1%	8.0%	244	-0.94	4.15	757	54
Yoanner Negrin R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	35	SP	3.87	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	485	53
Mitch Talbot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	35	SP	5.01	13.2%	4.3%	4.5%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	395	53
J.D. Martin R 2018 · 4.94 FIP	35	SP	4.94	10.4%	11.9%	2.2%	.284	5.89	13.9%	1.1%	125	+0.95	4.79	414	52

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	66	17.0%	7.7%	1.46	4.47
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Amaury Telemaco ('05)	2.8	70	15.0%	8.0%	1.48	4.94
Mark Grant ('84-'93, 0 WAR*)	3.2	91	18.0%*	8.5%*	1.41*	4.84*
Pete Filson ('82-'90, 2 WAR*)	2.0	78	15.8%*	8.7%*	1.39*	4.20*
Bob Priddy ('62-'71, -1 WAR*)	2.7	77	16.3%*	9.0%*	1.43*	4.80*