Ben Lively
P
Cleveland Guardians
Age 34
RHP
6'4" / 235 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION80 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.65
FIP5.13
xFIP5.26
SIERA5.30
K%15.3%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%7.2%
IP80
K†3030
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
FB Velo
p1089.8
Whiff%
p1016.2%
K%
p1016.3%
xwOBA vs
p330.332
SL+4.0 (17%)
FB+2.7 (58%)
CH+0.9 (8%)
SI (29%)
CU (7%)
CT (10%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 25 | 25 | 144 | 612 | 111 | 45 | 14 | 14.7% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 4.13 | 4.33 | +1.8 |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 28 | 28 | 171 | 666 | 139 | 42 | 11 | 17.9% | 6.7% | 2.0% | 2.69 | 3.53 | +3.7 |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 31 | 31 | 186 | 777 | 134 | 45 | 16 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 3.68 | 3.60 | +3.9 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 24 | 14 | 86 | 360 | 80 | 30 | 7 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 2.3% | 3.44 | 3.77 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 25 | 10 | 73 | 327 | 77 | 29 | 15 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 4.2% | 4.79 | 4.82 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 30 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 18 | 18 | 77 | 333 | 79 | 28 | 6 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 1.3% | 4.09 | 3.15 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 26 | 18 | 121 | 517 | 101 | 37 | 25 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 5.19 | 4.95 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 32 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 31 | 31 | 159 | 661 | 122 | 49 | 24 | 18.7% | 7.8% | 3.7% | 3.78 | 4.51 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 33 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 9 | 9 | 45 | 178 | 29 | 15 | 6 | 16.3% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 3.22 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 14 | 14 | 75 | 315 | 48 | 26 | 11 | 15.3% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 4.65 | 5.13 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | CLE | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 41 | 24 | 11 | 14.3% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 5.14 | 5.47 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | CLE | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 33 | 23 | 11 | 13.3% | 9.2% | 4.2% | 5.56 | 5.84 | -0.9 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 217 | 184 | 1062 | 4431 | 792 | 336 | 125 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 3.84 | 4.10 | +16.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 35 | 200 | 834 | 149 | 63 | 24 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 3.84 | 4.10 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ben Lively (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.13 | 15.3% | 8.1% | 3.5% | — | 5.64 | 13.9% | 4.9% | 126 | +0.51 | — | — | — |
| George Kontos R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.10 | 15.4% | 9.0% | 4.0% | .356 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 290 | 65 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.67 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .304 | 3.59 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 113 | -1.08 | 2.78 | 326 | 64 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.22 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 3.3% | .282 | 3.92 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 67 | -0.30 | 3.92 | 186 | 64 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.91 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .269 | 5.68 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.77 | 4.91 | 172 | 63 |
| Manny Acosta R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 63 |
| Tim Adleman R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.60 | 17.5% | 8.6% | 5.3% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 605 | 62 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 62 |
| Fernando Villalobos R 2024 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 10.6% | 8.0% | 2.8% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 152 | 61 |
| Hector Navarro R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.75 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | .281 | 2.93 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.82 | 2.30 | 126 | 61 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 61 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 61 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.03 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 4.4% | .318 | 4.19 | 12.6% | 5.9% | 104 | -0.84 | 3.79 | 264 | 61 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2028 · 5.02 FIP | 36 | SW | 5.02 | 9.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | .282 | 4.48 | 11.8% | 5.3% | 103 | -0.54 | 4.48 | 156 | 61 |
| Doug Fister R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.80 | 13.8% | 6.6% | 3.7% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.59 | 455 | 60 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.95 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 132 | 60 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.97 | 8.9% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.71 | 160 | 59 |
| Johnny Cueto R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.52 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .280 | 4.68 | 17.3% | 11.8% | 364 | +0.16 | 2.85 | 1,148 | 59 |
| Clay Buchholz R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.36 | 15.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 433 | 59 |
| Sergio Valenzuela R 2024 · 5.47 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.47 | 10.6% | 6.5% | 4.5% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 244 | 59 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2024 · 4.95 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.95 | 8.4% | 9.2% | 2.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.68 | 104 | 58 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.